AFL Week 10: Game Picks

Here are the picks for week 10. Note that APR and SRS disagree on the battle of the cellar-dwellers KC @ Utah. It could be Utah's best chance to avoid a winless season...

Game	APR	SRS	ITP
Philadelphia Soul @ Cleveland Gladiators	Soul ρ=1.3330	Soul δ=23.7	Soul
Grand Rapids Rampage @ Colorado Crush	Rampage ρ=1.0186	Rampage δ= 6.4	Crush
Dallas Desperados @ Columbus Destroyers	Desperados ρ=1.2906	Desperados δ=10.9	Desperados
New Orleans VooDoo @ Georgia Force	VooDoo ρ=1.1959	VooDoo δ=11.2	VooDoo
San Jose SaberCats @ Orlando Predators	SaberCats ρ=1.0297	SaberCats δ= 2.1	Predators
Kansas City Brigade @ Utah Blaze	Brigade ρ=1.0121	Blaze δ= 1.9	Brigade
Arizona Rattlers @ Los Angeles Avengers	Rattlers ρ=1.0717	Rattlers δ= 0.7	Rattlers
Chicago Rush @ Tampa Bay Storm	Rush ρ=1.1647	Rush δ=16.1	Rush

Bye: New York Dragons

AFL Pick Results and Week 9 Power Ranking

All algorithms had the same record this week. APR and SRS were agreed on all picks, and they split the two picks that ITP chose differently.

	APR					SRS					ITP					Home
Week 2	(	7	0	1	)	(	5	2	1	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)
Week 3	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	6	2	0	)	(	6	2	0	)
Week 4	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	4	4	0	)
Week 5	(	7	1	0	)	(	8	0	0	)	(	7	1	0	)	(	3	5	0	)
Week 6	(	4	4	0	)	(	3	5	0	)	(	4	4	0	)	(	8	0	0	)
Week 7	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	6	2	0	)	(	3	5	0	)
Week 8	(	6	2	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	7	1	0	)	(	2	6	0	)
Week 9	(	6	2	0	)	(	6	2	0	)	(	6	2	0	)	(	6	2	0	)
Totals:	(	45	18	1	)	(	42	21	1	)	(	46	18	0	)	(	37	27	0	)
	71.1%					66.4%					71.9%					57.8%

 

Dallas stays at the number 2 spot in spite of a major beat down at the hands of Philadelphia. But there's now a major gap in their relative power indexes.

An odd coincidence: note that of the teams ranked 1-7, only Dallas has had their Bye week, while in the teams ranked 8-17, only Los Angeles and Utah have not had their Bye. New York, Chicago, and New Orleans all have their Byes next, so this trend won't continue...

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (LW)	Philadelphia Soul	9-0-0	1.6180 (LW * 1.0522)	beat Desperados by 29
2 (LW)	Dallas Desperados	7-1-0	1.4538 (LW * 0.9527)	lost to Soul by 29
3 (LW)	New Orleans VooDoo	7-2-0	1.4371 (LW * 0.9807)	beat Blaze by 14
4 (LW)	Chicago Rush	7-2-0	1.4359 (LW * 1.0134)	beat Crush by 13
5 (LW-2)	New York Dragons	5-4-0	1.3637 (LW * 1.0525)	beat Gladiators by 17
6 (LW)	San Jose SaberCats	5-4-0	1.3538 (LW * 1.0184)	beat Avengers by 28
7 (LW+2)	Orlando Predators	6-3-0	1.3147 (LW * 0.9450)	lost to Storm by 7
8 (LW-6)	Tampa Bay Storm	3-5-0	1.2328 (LW * 1.1023)	beat Predators by 7
9 (LW+1)	Cleveland Gladiators	4-4-0	1.2138 (LW * 0.9547)	lost to Dragons by 17
10 (LW+1)	Georgia Force	3-5-0	1.2016 (LW * 0.9686)	lost to Rattlers by 5
11 (LW)	Grand Rapids Rampage	3-5-0	1.1952 (LW * 1.0259)	beat Brigade by 34
12 (LW)	Arizona Rattlers	4-4-0	1.1829 (LW * 1.0458)	beat Force by 5
13 (LW+3)	Colorado Crush	3-5-0	1.1733 (LW * 0.9599)	lost to Rush by 13
14 (LW-1)	Columbus Destroyers	2-6-0	1.1265 (LW * 1.0106)	Bye
15 (LW+2)	Los Angeles Avengers	3-6-0	1.1037 (LW * 0.9779)	lost to SaberCats by 28
16 (LW)	Kansas City Brigade	1-7-0	1.0233 (LW * 0.9770)	lost to Rampage by 34
17 (LW)	Utah Blaze	0-9-0	1.0110 (LW * 1.0095)	lost to VooDoo by 14

AFL Pick Standings, season to date

I finished the program to compute the season-to-date standings for each algorithm. A couple of notes:

• The differences between these results and what I previously posted appear to be a PEBCAK issue. The numbers in this post supercede the old ones.

• For some odd reason, ESPN always lists the winning team first on their schedules page. This caused me a fair amount of confusion until I figured out it wasn't in the usual "visitor, home" format.

• Yes, every home team won in week 6.

• APR and SRS use a feedback algorithm based on previous games played (which is why there is no results for week 1). Arena Football has an odd number of teams, which means one team has a bye every week. It also means since Grand Rapids didn't play their first game until week 2, APR and SRS did not have any data to pick that game. It was recorded as a push (tie) in the results.

	APR					SRS					ITP					Home
Week 2	(	7	0	1	)	(	5	2	1	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)
Week 3	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	6	2	0	)	(	6	2	0	)
Week 4	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	4	4	0	)
Week 5	(	7	1	0	)	(	8	0	0	)	(	7	1	0	)	(	3	5	0	)
Week 6	(	4	4	0	)	(	3	5	0	)	(	4	4	0	)	(	8	0	0	)
Week 7	(	5	3	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	6	2	0	)	(	3	5	0	)
Week 8	(	6	2	0	)	(	5	3	0	)	(	7	1	0	)	(	2	6	0	)
Totals:	(	39	16	1	)	(	36	19	1	)	(	40	16	0	)	(	31	25	0	)
	70.5%					65.2%					71.4%					55.4%

AFL Week 9: Game Picks

Here's the picks for week 9. All three methods pick Philadelphia to win the Philly @ Dallas matchup, but APR has Philly's margin razor-thin (ρ=1.0 would indicate the teams have the same power). APR and SRS are again agreed on all games.

Game	APR	SRS	ITP
Kansas City Brigade @ Grand Rapids Rampage	Rampage ρ=1.1124	Rampage δ= 9.0	Rampage
Utah Blaze @ New Orleans VooDoo	VooDoo ρ=1.4632	VooDoo δ=20.1	VooDoo
Chicago Rush @ Colorado Crush	Rush ρ=1.1592	Rush δ=17.4	Rush
Georgia Force @ Arizona Rattlers	Force ρ=1.0968	Force δ= 9.1	Rattlers
Cleveland Gladiators @ New York Dragons	Dragons ρ=1.0191	Dragons δ= 3.2	Gladiators
Tampa Bay Storm @ Orlando Predators	Predators ρ=1.2440	Predators δ= 9.0	Predators
Los Angeles Avengers @ San Jose SaberCats	SaberCats ρ=1.1778	SaberCats δ= 9.6	SaberCats
Dallas Desperados @ Philadelphia Soul	Soul ρ=1.0077	Soul δ= 7.6	Soul

Bye: Columbus Destroyers

Update: contrary to the original post title, these are the picks for week 9. Also note that Dallas @ Philadelphia is another example of two undefeated teams with different records playing. However, the team with the better record (Philly has one more win than Dallas) plays at home, so my version of ITP picks the same in this case.

AFL Week 8: Pick Results and Power Rankings

Pick Results Still doing this by hand. Full season-to-date results are coming.

	APR	SRS	ITP	Home
Week 7	5-3	5-3	4-4	5-3
Week 8	6-2	5-3	7-1	2-6
Totals	11-5	10-6	11-5	7-9

This was the week for Isaacson-Tarbell. New Power Rankings

• Kansas City gets their first win
• Utah is now the only winless team remaining.
• In Week 6, APR had Dallas a pretty distant # 4 behind Philadelphia. Since then, they've closed pretty impressively. Interestingly, Dallas visits Philadelphia in Week 9...
• Arizona is no longer first place in their division (they are half a game behind San Jose).

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (LW)	Philadelphia Soul	8-0	1.5378 (LW * 0.9962)	Beat Columbus by 21
2 (LW)	Dallas Desperados	7-0	1.5260 (LW * 1.0246)	Bye
3 (LW-1)	New Orleans VooDoo	6-2	1.4654 (LW * 1.0279)	Beat Arizona by 24
4 (LW+1)	Chicago Rush	6-2	1.4169 (LW * 0.9844)	Beat Grand Rapids by 3
5 (LW)	Orlando Predators	6-2	1.3913 (LW * 1.0108)	Beat Georgia by 3
6 (LW)	San Jose SaberCats	4-4	1.3294 (LW * 1.0342)	Beat Utah by 21
7 (LW-2)	New York Dragons	4-4	1.2957 (LW * 1.0726)	Beat Tampa Bay by 16
8 (LW-3)	Cleveland Gladiators	4-3	1.2714 (LW * 1.0709)	Beat Los Angeles by 14
9 (LW+2)	Georgia Force	3-4	1.2406 (LW * 0.9806)	Lost to Orlando by 3
10 (LW+2)	Colorado Crush	3-4	1.2223 (LW * 0.9673)	Lost to Kansas City by 2
11 (LW-4)	Grand Rapids Rampage	2-5	1.1650 (LW * 1.0495)	Lost to Chicago by 3
12 (LW-1)	Arizona Rattlers	3-4	1.1311 (LW * 0.9577)	Lost to New Orleans by 24
13 (LW+3)	Los Angeles Avengers	3-5	1.1287 (LW * 0.9393)	Lost to Cleveland by 14
14 (LW+2)	Tampa Bay Storm	2-5	1.1184 (LW * 0.9461)	Lost to New York by 19
15 (LW+1)	Columbus Destroyers	2-6	1.1146 (LW * 0.9848)	Lost to Philadelphia by 21
16 (LW-1)	Kansas City Brigade	1-6	1.0473 (LW * 1.0652)	Beat Colorado by 2
17 (LW+1)	Utah Blaze	0-8	1.0015 (LW * 0.9658)	Lost to San Jose by 21

Arena Fooball Week 8 Picks

Here's the picks for week 8. I've (mostly) finished the program that generates this table, so picks should be a little more timely from now on...

Game	APR	SRS	ITP
New York Dragons @ Tampa Bay Storm	New York ρ=1.0219	Tampa Bay δ= 2.2	New York
San Jose SabreCats @ Utah Blaze	San Jose ρ=1.2396	San Jose δ=11.2	San Jose
New Orleans VooDoo @ Arizona Rattlers	New Orleans ρ=1.2071	New Orleans δ=17.0	New Orleans
Colorado Crush @ Kansas City Brigade	Colorado ρ=1.2852	Colorado δ= 9.0	Colorado
Orlando Predators @ Georgia Force	Orlando ρ=1.0879	Orlando δ= 5.2	Orlando
Cleveland Gladiators @ Los Angeles Avengers	Los Angeles ρ=1.0122	Los Angeles δ= 1.9	Cleveland
Grand Rapids Rampage @ Chicago Rush	Chicago ρ=1.2966	Chicago δ=18.0	Chicago
Philadelphia Soul @ Columbus Destroyers	Philadelphia ρ=1.3639	Philadelphia δ=21.8	Philadelphia

Bye: Dallas Desperados

AFL Pick Results and Week 7 Power Rankings

Sometime this week, I'll get the season picks summary to-date. Here's the week 7 pick results:

• APR: 5-3
• SRS: 5-3
• ITP: 4-4
• HOME: 5-3

Dallas finally beats a quality opponent, and jumps up to the #2 spot. They're still a long way behind Philadelphia, though. Amazingly, Arizona leads their division (Arizona, Los Angeles, San Jose, and Utah). Unless they turn things around quick (or APR is just broken for Arena Football), that won't last much longer.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (LW)	Philadelphia Soul	7-0	1.5437 (LW * 0.9862)	Beat San Jose by 1
2 (LW-2)	Dallas Desperados	7-0	1.4893 (LW * 1.0309)	Beat New Orleans by 11
3 (LW)	Chicago Rush	5-2	1.4394 (LW * 0.9911)	Beat Kansas City by 7
4 (LW+2)	New Orleans VooDoo	5-2	1.4256 (LW * 0.9670)	Lost to Dallas by 11
5 (LW)	Orlando Predators	5-2	1.3764 (LW * 1.0127)	Beat Grand Rapids by 20
6 (LW-1)	San Jose SaberCats	3-4	1.2855 (LW * 1.0188)	Lost to Philadelphia by 1
7 (LW+1)	Georgia Force	3-3	1.2651 (LW * 1.0006)	Bye
8 (LW-1)	Colorado Crush	3-3	1.2636 (LW * 1.0204)	Beat Cleveland by 3
9 (LW-4)	New York Dragons	3-4	1.2080 (LW * 1.0615)	Beat Columbus by 18
10 (LW-2)	Los Angeles Avengers	3-4	1.2017 (LW * 1.0397)	Beat Utah by 17
11 (LW+1)	Cleveland Gladiators	3-3	1.1872 (LW * 0.9673)	Lost to Colorado by 3
12 (LW+4)	Tampa Bay Storm	2-4	1.1821 (LW * 0.9515)	Lost to Arizona by 1
13 (LW-2)	Arizona Rattlers	3-3	1.1810 (LW * 1.0574)	Beat Tampa Bay by 1
14 (LW+3)	Columbus Destroyers	2-5	1.1318 (LW * 0.9378)	Lost to New York by 18
15 (LW+1)	Grand Rapids Rampage	2-4	1.1101 (LW * 0.9767)	Lost to Orlando by 20
16 (LW)	Utah Blaze	0-7	1.0370 (LW * 0.9664)	Lost to Los Angeles by 17
17 (LW)	Kansas City Brigade	0-6	0.9832 (LW * 1.0314)	Lost to Chicago by 7

ESPN's lastest AFL power rankings are up

Here. Unsurprisingly, ESPN has the Dallas Desperadoes ranked #2. Here's some reasons to think that's too high:

• They haven't beaten anyone by more than 11 points
• The best team they've played so far is probably the 3-3 San Jose SaberCats.
• Their average margin of victory is just just 6.3 points
• The league-wide average margin of victory this season is 12.2 points.

Week 7's New Orleans @ Dallas match-up is the Desperadoes' first real test this season.

Arena Fooball Week 7 picks

Here are the picks for Arena football, week 7.

• APR is the algorithm used to generate the power rankings posted below. It is a feedback system similar to SRS. The ρ value is the ratio of the higher-ranked team over the lower ranked team. A ρ near 1 means APR thinks the teams are evenly matched; a higher value (like Chicago @ KC) means APR thinks it's a mismatch.
• SRS is the Simple Ranking System, ITP is the Isaacson Tarbell Predictor, and Home is just the Home team. These are all discussed in this post. For SRS, the δ value is the difference of the higher ranked team and the lower ranked team.

Game	APR	SRS	ITP	Home
Colorado Crush @ Cleveland Gladiators	Colorado ρ=1.0090	Colorado δ=4.435	Cleveland	Cleveland
New Orleans VooDoo @ Dallas Desperados	New Orleans ρ=1.0205	New Orleans δ=6.8444	Dallas	Dallas
Utah Blaze @ Los Angeles Avengers	Los Angeles ρ=1.0770	Los Angeles δ=0.8719	Los Angeles	Los Angeles
Philadelphia Soul @ San Jose SaberCats	Philadelphia ρ=1.2410	Philadelphia δ=18.6038	Philadelphia	San Jose
Orlando Predators @ Grand Rapids Rampage	Orlando ρ=1.1958	Orlando δ=8.3751	Orlando	Grand Rapids
Arizona Rattlers @ Tampa Bay Storm	Tampa Bay ρ=1.1124	Tampa Bay δ=10.5334	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay
Columbus Destroyers @ New York Dragons	Columbus ρ=1.0605	Columbus δ=4.1017	New York	New York
Chicago Rush @ Kansas City Brigade	Chicago ρ=1.5234	Chicago δ=34.4201	Chicago	Kansas City

The Georgia Force are on a Bye this week.

AFL Power Rankings, Week 6

Anybody follow Arena Football? Here's a power ranking for the (just finished) week 6. The algorithm was not defined for the AFL (which has a lot more scoring than the NFL), so take this with even more of a grain of salt than usual.

Rank	Team	Standing	Power Index	This week
1 (LW)	Philadelphia Soul	6-0	1.5653 (LW * 0.9471)	Beat Utah by 8
2 (LW-2)	New Orleans VooDoo	5-1	1.4742 (LW * 1.0670)	Beat San Jose by 29
3 (LW+1)	Chicago Rush	4-2	1.4523 (LW * 0.9443)	Lost to Orlando by 1
4 (LW+1)	Dallas Desperados	6-0	1.4446 (LW * 1.0272)	Beat Cleveland by 7
5 (LW-4)	Orlando Predators	4-2	1.3592 (LW * 1.0855)	Beat Chicago by 1
6 (LW-2)	Georgia Force	3-3	1.2643 (LW * 1.0022)	Beat Kansas City by 7
7 (LW+2)	San Jose SaberCats	3-3	1.2618 (LW * 0.9428)	Lost to New Orleans by 29
8 (LW+2)	Tampa Bay Storm	2-3	1.2424 (LW * 0.9723)	Lost to Columbus by 2
9 (LW-2)	Colorado Crush	2-3	1.2383 (LW * 1.0690)	Beat Los Angeles by 13
10 (LW-2)	Cleveland Gladiators	3-2	1.2273 (LW * 1.0895)	Lost to Dallas by 7
11 (LW-3)	Columbus Destroyers	2-4	1.2069 (LW * 1.1031)	Beat Tampa Bay by 2
12 (LW+2)	Los Angeles Avengers	2-4	1.1558 (LW * 0.9620)	Lost to Colorado by 13
13 (LW-2)	New York Dragons	2-4	1.1380 (LW * 1.0985)	Beat Grand Rapids by 29
14 (LW+7)	Grand Rapids Rampage	2-3	1.1366 (LW * 0.8938)	Lost to New York by 29
15 (LW+2)	Arizona Rattlers	2-3	1.1169 (LW * 1.0121)	Bye
16 (LW)	Utah Blaze	0-6	1.0731 (LW * 1.1177)	Lost to Philadelphia by 8
17 (LW)	Kansas City Brigade	0-5	0.9533 (LW * 1.0103)	Lost to Georgia by 7

ESPN has a page for Arena football here.

New Blogger features

This morning on Blogger's dashboard, there was a list of upcoming "features". They pretty much had me going, until I got to this one:

• Unsure of what to post about? Just click “I’m Feeling Lucky” and we’ll “take care” of the rest!

Then I remembered what day today is. Update: you can see the whole thing here.