Picks for week Arena Bowl.
One more AFL game left. No surprise Philadelphia is the unanimous pick.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| San Jose SaberCats @ Philadelphia Soul | Soul ρ=1.0447 | Soul δ= 6.6 | Soul |
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Friday, July 18, 2008
AFL Playoffs round 3: Pick standings and power rankings
Pick Standings
Home teams won; everybody is happy.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 15 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 16 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 17 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs1 | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs2 | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs3 | ( | 2 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 87 | 50 | 1 | ) | ( | 86 | 51 | 1 | ) | ( | 85 | 53 | 0 | ) | ( | 81 | 57 | 0 | ) |
| 63.4% | 62.7% | 61.6% | 58.7% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
No surprises here, except thanks to trickle-down power, KC and Columbus are still locked in a battle for last place.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 15-3-0 | 1.5290 (LW * 1.0114) | beat Gladiators by 35 |
| 2 (LW) | San Jose SaberCats | 13-5-0 | 1.4636 (LW * 1.0175) | beat Rampage by 26 |
| 3 (LW) | Georgia Force | 10-7-0 | 1.3959 (LW * 0.9960) | Bye |
| 4 (LW) | New York Dragons | 9-9-0 | 1.3942 (LW * 0.9954) | Bye |
| 5 (LW-1) | Tampa Bay Storm | 8-8-0 | 1.3656 (LW * 0.9940) | Bye |
| 6 (LW-2) | Dallas Desperados | 12-5-0 | 1.3559 (LW * 0.9926) | Bye |
| 7 (LW+2) | Cleveland Gladiators | 11-8-0 | 1.3410 (LW * 0.9739) | lost to Soul by 35 |
| 8 (LW+1) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 8-11-0 | 1.3267 (LW * 0.9695) | lost to SaberCats by 26 |
| 9 (LW) | Chicago Rush | 11-6-0 | 1.3265 (LW * 0.9909) | Bye |
| 10 (LW) | Utah Blaze | 6-11-0 | 1.2837 (LW * 0.9945) | Bye |
| 11 (LW) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-8-0 | 1.2760 (LW * 0.9931) | Bye |
| 12 (LW) | Orlando Predators | 9-8-0 | 1.2693 (LW * 0.9922) | Bye |
| 13 (LW) | Colorado Crush | 7-11-0 | 1.2424 (LW * 0.9943) | Bye |
| 14 (LW) | Arizona Rattlers | 8-9-0 | 1.2007 (LW * 0.9923) | Bye |
| 15 (LW) | Los Angeles Avengers | 5-11-0 | 1.1326 (LW * 0.9972) | Bye |
| 16 (LW-1) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-13-0 | 1.1181 (LW * 0.9957) | Bye |
| 17 (LW+1) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-13-0 | 1.1168 (LW * 0.9915) | Bye |
Saturday, July 12, 2008
AFL Playoffs, round 3: Game Picks
Picks for round 3 of the playoffs.
Unsurprisingly, both home teams are the unanimous picks. But given the way the season has played out so far, I wouldn't risk so much as a penny we've seen the last upset.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| Cleveland Gladiators @ Philadelphia Soul | Soul ρ=1.0979 | Soul δ= 9.1 | Soul |
| Grand Rapids Rampage @ San Jose SaberCats | SaberCats ρ=1.0512 | SaberCats δ= 4.5 | SaberCats |
Monday, July 7, 2008
AFL Pick Results and Playoff Power Rankings, Round 2
Pick Standings
Two more upsets (very nearly three; Philadelphia won on a last-play TD), and the 6-10 Grand Rapids Rampage have somehow played their way to the penultimate game of the playoffs. Even with their winning streak, their still ranked well back of all the other remaining teams.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 15 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 16 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 17 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs1 | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs2 | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 85 | 50 | 1 | ) | ( | 84 | 51 | 1 | ) | ( | 83 | 53 | 0 | ) | ( | 79 | 57 | 0 | ) |
| 62.9% | 62.1% | 61.0% | 58.1% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Where should Grand Rapids "really" be? Who knows. Given the wacky results of this league, APR's 62.9% pick success seems pretty remarkable. And in spite of their dominating power index, Philadelphia could be in trouble: they had a late-season losing streak with HFA still on the line, and just barely beat an upset-minded New York team.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 14-3-0 | 1.5117 (LW * 0.9953) | beat Dragons by 1 |
| 2 (LW-1) | San Jose SaberCats | 12-5-0 | 1.4384 (LW * 0.9984) | beat Crush by 13 |
| 3 (LW+1) | Georgia Force | 10-7-0 | 1.4015 (LW * 0.9714) | lost to Gladiators by 3 |
| 4 (LW-1) | New York Dragons | 9-9-0 | 1.4006 (LW * 1.0036) | lost to Soul by 1 |
| 5 (LW-3) | Cleveland Gladiators | 11-7-0 | 1.3769 (LW * 1.0179) | beat Force by 3 |
| 6 (LW) | Tampa Bay Storm | 8-8-0 | 1.3738 (LW * 0.9995) | Bye |
| 7 (LW-2) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 8-10-0 | 1.3684 (LW * 1.0503) | beat Rush by 17 |
| 8 (LW+1) | Dallas Desperados | 12-5-0 | 1.3660 (LW * 1.0013) | Bye |
| 9 (LW+5) | Chicago Rush | 11-6-0 | 1.3386 (LW * 0.9584) | lost to Rampage by 17 |
| 10 (LW) | Utah Blaze | 6-11-0 | 1.2909 (LW * 1.0011) | Bye |
| 11 (LW) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-8-0 | 1.2849 (LW * 1.0018) | Bye |
| 12 (LW) | Orlando Predators | 9-8-0 | 1.2793 (LW * 1.0006) | Bye |
| 13 (LW) | Colorado Crush | 7-11-0 | 1.2496 (LW * 1.0005) | lost to SaberCats by 13 |
| 14 (LW) | Arizona Rattlers | 8-9-0 | 1.2100 (LW * 1.0049) | Bye |
| 15 (LW) | Los Angeles Avengers | 5-11-0 | 1.1358 (LW * 0.9979) | Bye |
| 16 (LW-1) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-13-0 | 1.1263 (LW * 1.0048) | Bye |
| 17 (LW+1) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-13-0 | 1.1229 (LW * 0.9955) | Bye |
Saturday, July 5, 2008
AFL Playoffs, round 2: Game Picks
Picks for the second round of the playoffs
Is it too late to do this? Does anyone care? Everybody likes the home teams this week.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| Colorado Crush @ San Jose SaberCats | SaberCats ρ=1.1535 | SaberCats δ= 9.1 | SaberCats |
| New York Dragons @ Philadelphia Soul | Soul ρ=1.0884 | Soul δ=10.0 | Soul |
| Grand Rapids Rampage @ Chicago Rush | Rush ρ=1.0721 | Rush δ=10.3 | Rush |
| Cleveland Gladiators @ Georgia Force | Force ρ=1.0666 | Force δ= 4.1 | Force |
Friday, July 4, 2008
AFL Pick Results and Playoff Power Rankings, Round 1
Pick Standings
A high-ranked Dallas team is one-and-done in the playoffs thanks to a surging team from New York. Somehow, that sounds oddly familiar...
In spite of my warnings to the contrary, APR (and SRS) were right to pick Grand Rapids to beat Arizona. And Arizona (and to a lesser extent, Dallas) show the correlation between losing a "meaningless" end-of-season game, and early exits from the playoffs.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 15 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 16 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 17 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Divisional | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 83 | 48 | 1 | ) | ( | 82 | 49 | 1 | ) | ( | 81 | 51 | 0 | ) | ( | 77 | 55 | 0 | ) |
| 63.3% | 62.5% | 61.4% | 58.3% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Georgia and San Jose are virtually tied in their power index, so relatively minor changes to their power index values swaps their rankings. In hindsight, it looks like APR was right to rank Dallas as low as it did.
Note that New York's power index is just a shade under Chicago's... another upset isn't out of the question.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 13-3-0 | 1.5189 (LW * 1.0036) | Bye |
| 2 (LW-1) | Georgia Force | 10-6-0 | 1.4428 (LW * 1.0022) | Bye |
| 3 (LW+1) | San Jose SaberCats | 11-5-0 | 1.4407 (LW * 0.9967) | Bye |
| 4 (LW-1) | Chicago Rush | 11-5-0 | 1.3967 (LW * 0.9988) | Bye |
| 5 (LW-3) | New York Dragons | 9-8-0 | 1.3956 (LW * 1.0539) | beat Desperados by 14 |
| 6 (LW) | Tampa Bay Storm | 8-8-0 | 1.3746 (LW * 1.0030) | Bye |
| 7 (LW+3) | Dallas Desperados | 12-5-0 | 1.3643 (LW * 0.9670) | lost to Dragons by 14 |
| 8 (LW+1) | Cleveland Gladiators | 10-7-0 | 1.3527 (LW * 1.0028) | beat Predators by 3 |
| 9 (LW-3) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 7-10-0 | 1.3029 (LW * 1.0278) | beat Rattlers by 7 |
| 10 (LW+1) | Utah Blaze | 6-11-0 | 1.2894 (LW * 0.9766) | lost to Crush by 5 |
| 11 (LW) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-8-0 | 1.2826 (LW * 1.0036) | Bye |
| 12 (LW+2) | Orlando Predators | 9-8-0 | 1.2785 (LW * 0.9979) | lost to Gladiators by 3 |
| 13 (LW-1) | Colorado Crush | 7-10-0 | 1.2490 (LW * 1.0302) | beat Blaze by 5 |
| 14 (LW+1) | Arizona Rattlers | 8-9-0 | 1.2041 (LW * 0.9762) | lost to Rampage by 7 |
| 15 (LW) | Los Angeles Avengers | 5-11-0 | 1.1382 (LW * 0.9991) | Bye |
| 16 (LW) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-13-0 | 1.1279 (LW * 1.0055) | Bye |
| 17 (LW) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-13-0 | 1.1210 (LW * 1.0081) | Bye |
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