NFL Week 4 Picks

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Picks for week 4.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except for Colts @ Seahawks, which is from footballlocks.com).

Game	APR	SRS	Line
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers	49ers ρ=5.1635	49ers δ=25.31	49ers -9½
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs	Giants ρ=3.3182	Giants δ=11.14	Giants -9
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts	Colts ρ=3.2220	Colts δ=3.07	Colts -9
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns	Bengals ρ=2.9866	Bengals δ=18.73	Bengals -5½
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.9560	Broncos δ=13.00	Cowboys -3
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars	Jaguars ρ=1.8042	Titans δ=0.11	Titans -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins	Redskins ρ=1.7247	Redskins δ=8.07	Redskins -7
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.6018	Vikings δ=5.04	Vikings -3
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins	Bills ρ=1.5682	Bills δ=10.83	Bills -2
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears	Bears ρ=1.3137	Bears δ=2.75	Bears -10
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans	Texans ρ=1.1212	Raiders δ=0.90	Texans -9
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots	Ravens ρ=1.0758	Ravens δ=6.55	Patriots -2
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints	Jets ρ=1.0340	Saints δ=14.93	Saints -7
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.0062	Steelers δ=0.39	Steelers -6½

Bye: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles

Comments:

• If the Titans can't beat the Jaguars... it'll be hard to make the argument that Albert Haynesworth wasn't worth the $100M he was asking.

• I like the call of Broncos over the Cowboys. I'm not sure the Broncos are really worth their #5 ranking, but the Cowboys don't seem like the team to knock them down.

• I wish I could argue that the Packers have a chance on MNF. But they struggled against the lowly Rams on Sunday (in spite of the final score, the Rams were within 6 points early in the 4th quarter). Unless the Packers are on the verge of some big changes, or Favre has a massive melt-down, this could be very ugly for Packer fans.

• Jets @ Saints seems like one of the big match-ups this week. I'm surprised CBS isn't showing it on more stations.

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

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Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 3

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	New York Jets	3-0	4.0341 (LW × 0.979)	won by 7 vs Titans
2 (↑15)	Indianapolis Colts	3-0	3.9561 (LW × 2.595)	won by 21 at Cardinals
3 (↑1)	Minnesota Vikings	3-0	3.9020 (LW × 1.128)	won by 3 vs 49ers
4 (↓1)	New Orleans Saints	3-0	3.9014 (LW × 1.095)	won by 20 at Bills
5 (↓3)	Denver Broncos	3-0	3.5971 (LW × 0.880)	won by 20 at Raiders
6 (↓1)	San Francisco 49ers	2-1	2.8374 (LW × 0.842)	lost by 3 at Vikings
7 (-)	Cincinnati Bengals	2-1	2.8023 (LW × 1.015)	won by 3 vs Steelers
8 (↓2)	Arizona Cardinals	1-2	2.7424 (LW × 0.938)	lost by 21 vs Colts
9 (↓1)	Baltimore Ravens	3-0	2.5900 (LW × 0.941)	won by 31 vs Browns
10 (↑2)	Green Bay Packers	2-1	2.4360 (LW × 1.253)	won by 19 at Rams
11 (↑5)	New England Patriots	2-1	2.4075 (LW × 1.576)	won by 16 vs Falcons
12 (↓1)	New York Giants	3-0	2.0431 (LW × 1.042)	won by 24 at Buccaneers
13 (↓3)	Philadelphia Eagles	2-1	1.9827 (LW × 0.979)	won by 20 vs Chiefs
14 (↓5)	Atlanta Falcons	2-1	1.9214 (LW × 0.855)	lost by 16 at Patriots
15 (↑13)	Jacksonville Jaguars	1-2	1.8957 (LW × 3.131)	won by 7 at Texans
16 (↓1)	Buffalo Bills	1-2	1.8751 (LW × 1.129)	lost by 20 vs Saints
17 (↓3)	Dallas Cowboys	2-1	1.8390 (LW × 0.993)	won by 14 vs Panthers
18 (↑4)	Chicago Bears	2-1	1.8276 (LW × 1.680)	won by 6 at Seahawks
19 (↑5)	Pittsburgh Steelers	1-2	1.8208 (LW × 1.909)	lost by 3 at Bengals
20 (↓1)	San Diego Chargers	2-1	1.8096 (LW × 1.388)	won by 10 vs Dolphins
21 (↑2)	Detroit Lions	1-2	1.3911 (LW × 1.296)	won by 5 vs Redskins
22 (↓9)	Seattle Seahawks	1-2	1.2278 (LW × 0.657)	lost by 6 vs Bears
23 (↓2)	Houston Texans	1-2	1.2054 (LW × 1.104)	lost by 7 vs Jaguars
24 (↑7)	Miami Dolphins	0-3	1.1957 (LW × 2.400)	lost by 10 at Chargers
25 (↓7)	Oakland Raiders	1-2	1.0752 (LW × 0.816)	lost by 20 vs Broncos
26 (-)	Tennessee Titans	0-3	1.0507 (LW × 1.534)	lost by 7 at Jets
27 (↓7)	Washington Redskins	1-2	0.9959 (LW × 0.782)	lost by 5 at Lions
28 (↓3)	Cleveland Browns	0-3	0.9383 (LW × 1.136)	lost by 31 at Ravens
29 (↓2)	Kansas City Chiefs	0-3	0.6157 (LW × 0.990)	lost by 20 at Eagles
30 (↑2)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-3	0.5774 (LW × 1.484)	lost by 24 vs Giants
31 (↓2)	St. Louis Rams	0-3	0.5495 (LW × 0.949)	lost by 19 vs Packers
32 (↓2)	Carolina Panthers	0-3	0.5410 (LW × 1.047)	lost by 14 at Cowboys

Comments

• Things are settling down—only 3 teams moved by more than 7 spots, and the top 10 remains pretty stable. Next week will feature the return of 'Teams APR Likes More Than ESPN' (and vice versa).

• The Jets hold on to 1st place, in spite of losing 2.1% of their power index. They're only a little bit ahead of the Colts. If the Jets can beat the Saints next week, they should stay in the top spot (the Colts have the Seahawks, so they could drop even on a big win).

• The Cardinals are easily the highest-ranked 1-2 team (ahead even the 3-0 Ravens). But notice the Cardinals' opponents are a combined 6-3, while the Ravens' opponents are a combined 2-7. Playing quality competition makes a big difference in the rankings.

• Also note there's a major drop-off in power indexes from #4 to #6.

• The Colts really benefit from a big road win. Though you can see from the Giants, it helps to beat a team that has a win of their own.

• Every team in the NFC West lost this week. Every team in the NFC North won this week.

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

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Pick results for week 3.

Unanimous picks (9-2)

Correctly picked:

Titans @ Jets
Giants @ Buccaneers
Panthers @ Cowboys
Packers @ Rams
Browns @ Ravens
Chiefs @ Eagles
Broncos @ Raiders
Dolphins @ Chargers
Saints @ Bills

Not so much:

Colts @ Cardinals

The Cardinals have a reputation as an offense-first team (Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston). But they really need their defense to have a solid game too. The Cardinals defense shut out the Colts for the first quarter, but then had a major break-down in the second, giving up 3 touchdowns. That was pretty much the end for the Cardinals, who aren't the kind of team to mount big come-backs (last year's Super Bowl is a rare exception).

Jaguars @ Texans

If you want to beat the Jaguars, it's not a good idea to let Maurice Jones-Drew get 100 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns. Also, I think it's safe at this point to pencil in the Colts to win the AFC South this year.

Split Picks (APR 2-3, SRS 3-2, Line 3-2)

Steelers (Line) @ Bengals (APR, SRS)

Could the Bengals actually be good this season? APR certainly thinks so.

Bears (Line) @ Seahawks (APR, SRS)

Interestingly, the Seahawks nearly pulled this one out. Two missed field goals come up big. That makes it harder to argue APR and SRS had them overrated.

Falcons (APR) @ Patriots (SRS, Line)

Maybe some of that rust is coming off Brady's game. The most points the Patriots have scored all season, and the first time they've had control of the game before the closing ticks.

Lions (SRS) @ Redskins (APR, Line)

Congradulations Lions! The Redskins play the Buccaneers next week, which means (at least) one of them won't lose next week.

49ers (SRS) @ Vikings (APR, Line)

This was such a weird game—the 49ers scored on a blocked punt, the Vikings scored on a 101-yard kickoff return, and then the Vikings won on a last-second, 4th down desparation heave to the end zone. It did seem like a game between two good teams, and they've both earned a top 10 spot in the (forthcoming) rankings.

Standings:

	This Week	Overall
APR	11-5	20-12
SRS	12-4	21-11
Line	12-4	20-12
Unanimous	9-2	15- 7

New power rankings, and Week 4 picks to come.

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 4

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑3)	Iowa AP=13	4-0	8.1818 (LW × 1.488)	won by 11 at Penn-St
2 (↑17)	Virginia-Tech AP=6	3-1	6.6229 (LW × 1.867)	won by 24 vs Miami-FL
3 (↑10)	Boise-St AP=5	4-0	6.0206 (LW × 1.546)	won by 35 at Bowling-Green
4 (↑1)	Alabama AP=3	4-0	5.8037 (LW × 1.068)	won by 28 vs Arkansas
5 (↓4)	Miami-FL AP=17	2-1	5.2197 (LW × 0.712)	lost by 24 at Virginia-Tech
6 (↑36)	South-Florida AP=rv(145)	4-0	5.0277 (LW × 2.116)	won by 10 at Florida-St
7 (-)	Texas AP=2	4-0	4.9509 (LW × 1.065)	won by 57 vs UTEP
8 (↑33)	Stanford AP=rv(2)	3-1	4.7096 (LW × 1.972)	won by 20 vs Washington
9 (↑48)	Oregon AP=16	3-1	4.6847 (LW × 2.422)	won by 39 vs California
10 (↓1)	Florida-St	2-2	4.4819 (LW × 1.005)	lost by 10 vs South-Florida
11 (↑12)	TCU AP=11	3-0	4.3796 (LW × 1.370)	won by 4 at Clemson
12 (↑20)	Florida AP=1	4-0	4.3521 (LW × 1.567)	won by 34 at Kentucky
13 (↓2)	LSU AP=4	4-0	4.3502 (LW × 1.067)	won by 4 at Mississippi-St
14 (↓11)	Kansas AP=18	4-0	4.3494 (LW × 0.712)	won by 7 vs Southern-Miss
15 (↓5)	Auburn AP=rv(171)	4-0	4.3003 (LW × 0.990)	won by 24 vs Ball-St
16 (↓14)	Houston AP=12	3-0	4.1448 (LW × 0.623)	won by 1 vs Texas-Tech
17 (↑16)	Nebraska AP=23	3-1	3.8172 (LW × 1.375)	won by 55 vs LA-Lafayette
18 (↓4)	Georgia-Tech AP=25	3-1	3.7947 (LW × 0.982)	won by 17 vs North-Carolina
19 (↑2)	USC AP=7	3-1	3.7138 (LW × 1.113)	won by 21 vs Washington-St
20 (↓2)	Penn-St AP=15	3-1	3.6785 (LW × 1.012)	lost by 11 vs Iowa
21 (↓1)	Clemson	2-2	3.6618 (LW × 1.042)	lost by 4 vs TCU
22 (↓10)	Ohio-St AP=9	3-1	3.6528 (LW × 0.916)	won by 30 vs Illinois
23 (↓6)	Cincinnati AP=10	4-0	3.6440 (LW × 0.997)	won by 8 vs Fresno-St
24 (↓16)	California AP=24	3-1	3.5446 (LW × 0.773)	lost by 39 at Oregon
25 (↑19)	Oklahoma AP=8	2-1	3.4533 (LW × 1.489)	Bye
26 (↓11)	Washington	2-2	3.3632 (LW × 0.881)	lost by 20 at Stanford
27 (↓5)	Michigan AP=22	4-0	3.2502 (LW × 1.008)	won by 3 vs Indiana
28 (↓12)	Oklahoma-St AP=14	3-1	3.2238 (LW × 0.857)	won by 50 vs Grambling-St
29 (↑8)	Georgia AP=18	3-1	3.2037 (LW × 1.289)	won by 3 vs Arizona-St
30 (-)	Purdue	1-3	3.1887 (LW × 1.122)	lost by 3 vs Notre-Dame
31 (↑18)	Notre-Dame AP=rv(7)	3-1	3.1390 (LW × 1.461)	won by 3 at Purdue
32 (↑6)	BYU AP=20	3-1	3.1203 (LW × 1.257)	won by 19 vs Colorado-St
33 (↑20)	South-Carolina AP=rv(154)	3-1	3.0650 (LW × 1.567)	won by 6 vs Mississippi
34 (↑13)	Utah AP=rv(25)	3-1	3.0320 (LW × 1.362)	won by 16 vs Louisville
Other Notable Teams:
39 (↓14)	Wisconsin AP=rv(20)	4-0	2.9065 (LW × 0.971)	won by 8 vs Michigan-St
42 (↓2)	UCLA AP=rv(41)	3-0	2.7364 (LW × 1.132)	Bye
45 (↓18)	Missouri AP=rv(175)	4-0	2.5913 (LW × 0.885)	won by 10 at Nevada
49 (↓15)	Arizona-St AP=rv(4)	2-1	2.4233 (LW × 0.900)	lost by 3 at Georgia
52 (↓26)	Mississippi AP=21	2-1	2.2944 (LW × 0.767)	lost by 6 at South-Carolina
55 (↓24)	North-Carolina AP=rv(2)	3-1	2.2376 (LW × 0.799)	lost by 17 at Georgia-Tech

Comments:

• It's still early, so take these rankings with more than the usual grain of salt.

• Still, the Gators' toughest opponent so far was Tennessee (#53, not listed). APR doesn't take into account last seasons' successes, so they are ranked out of the top 10.

NFL: How much do the first two games matter?

We're two games into the season. Players are still shaking off the rust, some are learning new systems, getting used to new coaches. There's still lots of football left to play, right?

I was curious about how a teams early results correlated to their final standings, so I took the historical record from 1993 to 2008 (inclusive), and divided them up into four categories based on the results of the first two games:

1. Two wins
2. Win then loss
3. Loss then win
4. Two losses

I then counted the number of wins for all teams in each category. Since there were only a handful of tie games during this era, they are ignored.

I should also say I know the data should be plotted as a column chart or histogram, but I couldn't figure out how to make any of my chart-making programs create a chart that was both correct and not awful.

It's good to be 2-0

Not exactly a stop-the-presses insight, I know. What's interesting is how good it is to be 2-0:

Click on image to see full resolution

The graph peaks only one win better than 8-8, but note that the bulk of the teams are at 8 wins or better. Of the 137 teams in this data set, only 25 (18.2%) didn't make it to at least 8-8.

Teams that tanked the hardest after starting 2-0:

• The 1998 Chargers won 5 games
• The 2001 Chargers won 5 games
• The 2002 Bears won 4 games
• The 2003 Redskins won 5 games
• The 2007 49ers won 5 games

1-1: WL vs LW is not the same

As indicated above, I split the 1-1 teams that lost in Week 1 (LW) from the teams that lost in Week 2 (WL). Here's the result:

Click on image to see full resolution

As you can see, both data sets are more-or-less centered around the 8-8 mark, but the WL teams have finished with 8, 9, or 10 wins a lot more than the LW teams (which actually has a small dip for 8 and 9 wins).

Also note that while 16 WL teams have made it to at least 11 wins, 24 (half again as many) LW teams have made it to 11 wins.

It's not good to be 0-2

Most teams that start 0-2 never make it to 8 wins:

Click on image to see full resolution

A few teams that started 0-2 have managed to pull things out:

• The 1993 Cowboys won 12 games (won Super Bowl XXVIII)
• The 1996 Patriots won 11 games (lost Super Bowl XXXI)
• The 1998 Jets won 12 games (lost AFC CG)
• The 2001 Patriots won 11 games (won Super Bowl XXXVI)
• The 2003 Eagles won 12 games (lost AFC CG)
• The 2008 Dolphins won 11 games (lost Wildcard game)

Conclusion

The way the first two games of the season play out are in many cases a strong indication of what you can expect for the remaining 14 games. Winning teams win games, while losing teams lose games, almost always right from week 1.

And there is a surprising difference between WL and LW teams (perhaps the psychological shock of starting 0-1 pushes those LW teams more than the teams that lose their second game?).

NFL Week 3 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Picks for week 3.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except for Chiefs @ Eagles, which is from footballlocks.com).

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets	Jets ρ=6.0171	Jets δ=20.88	Jets -3
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Giants ρ=5.0392	Giants δ=11.70	Giants -6½
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=3.5823	Cowboys δ=21.15	Cowboys -9
Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams	Packers ρ=3.3582	Packers δ=20.68	Packers -6½
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens	Ravens ρ=3.3316	Ravens δ=21.22	Ravens -13
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles ρ=3.2561	Eagles δ=10.70	Eagles -9½
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders	Broncos ρ=3.1024	Broncos δ=17.32	Broncos -1½
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals	Bengals ρ=2.8933	Bengals δ=10.70	Steelers -4
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers	Chargers ρ=2.6159	Chargers δ=14.48	Chargers -6
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills	Saints ρ=2.1461	Saints δ=21.06	Saints -6
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.9175	Cardinals δ=16.52	Cardinals -2½
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans	Texans ρ=1.8040	Texans δ=0.29	Texans -3½
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.7183	Seahawks δ=15.02	Bears -2½
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots	Falcons ρ=1.4707	Patriots δ=4.40	Patriots -4
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions	Redskins ρ=1.1862	Lions δ=3.25	Redskins -6½
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.0260	49ers δ=1.84	Vikings -7

Comments:

• Did yahoo forget about Chiefs @ Eagles? They don't even have an entry for the game that says 'no line'; it's just not listed.

• Eagles-9½ seems like a wide line for the McNabb-less Eagles. The Chiefs played the Ravens close for most of the game in Week 1 (though they did give up two late touchdowns).

• Even the line likes the Cardinals over the Colts? Wow. If the Cardinals come away with a win, that will make their Week 1 loss to the 49ers look a lot more like the exception rather than the rule.

• I like APR's pick of the Falcons. The Patriots have looked pretty iffy so far this season. Or maybe Tom Brady has finally shaken off the rust from a season-long stint on IR? Didn't look like it last Sunday in the Meadowlands.

• SRS's pick of the Lions is interesting too. The Redskins 2-point win over the Rams sure doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in their scoring ability.

• 49ers @ Vikings will be an interesting game. Likely the toughest opponent for both teams so far this year.

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

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Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 2

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑2)	New York Jets	2-0	4.1213 (LW × 1.256)	won by 7 vs Patriots
2 (↑10)	Denver Broncos	2-0	4.0881 (LW × 2.119)	won by 21 vs Browns
3 (↑4)	New Orleans Saints	2-0	3.5635 (LW × 1.146)	won by 26 at Eagles
4 (↓2)	Minnesota Vikings	2-0	3.4582 (LW × 1.041)	won by 14 at Lions
5 (↑8)	San Francisco 49ers	2-0	3.3705 (LW × 1.747)	won by 13 vs Seahawks
6 (↑15)	Arizona Cardinals	1-1	2.9237 (LW × 3.967)	won by 14 at Jaguars
7 (↑13)	Cincinnati Bengals	1-1	2.7600 (LW × 3.745)	won by 7 at Packers
8 (↓3)	Baltimore Ravens	2-0	2.7514 (LW × 0.871)	won by 5 at Chargers
9 (↓5)	Atlanta Falcons	2-0	2.2465 (LW × 0.705)	won by 8 vs Panthers
10 (↓4)	Philadelphia Eagles	1-1	2.0255 (LW × 0.646)	lost by 26 vs Saints
11 (↓1)	New York Giants	2-0	1.9602 (LW × 0.768)	won by 2 at Cowboys
12 (↓3)	Green Bay Packers	1-1	1.9437 (LW × 0.761)	lost by 7 vs Bengals
13 (↓5)	Seattle Seahawks	1-1	1.8686 (LW × 0.627)	lost by 13 at 49ers
14 (↓13)	Dallas Cowboys	1-1	1.8516 (LW × 0.555)	lost by 2 vs Giants
15 (↑3)	Buffalo Bills	1-1	1.6605 (LW × 1.915)	won by 13 vs Buccaneers
16 (↓2)	New England Patriots	1-1	1.5275 (LW × 0.832)	lost by 7 at Jets
17 (↓1)	Indianapolis Colts	2-0	1.5247 (LW × 0.831)	won by 4 at Dolphins
18 (↑4)	Oakland Raiders	1-1	1.3177 (LW × 1.788)	won by 3 at Chiefs
19 (↓8)	San Diego Chargers	1-1	1.3033 (LW × 0.675)	lost by 5 vs Ravens
20 (↑4)	Washington Redskins	1-1	1.2733 (LW × 2.043)	won by 2 vs Rams
21 (↑10)	Houston Texans	1-1	1.0924 (LW × 3.032)	won by 3 at Titans
22 (↑1)	Chicago Bears	1-1	1.0875 (LW × 1.745)	won by 3 vs Steelers
23 (↑4)	Detroit Lions	0-2	1.0734 (LW × 2.550)	lost by 14 vs Vikings
24 (↓9)	Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1	0.9539 (LW × 0.520)	lost by 3 at Bears
25 (↑5)	Cleveland Browns	0-2	0.8258 (LW × 2.244)	lost by 21 at Broncos
26 (↓7)	Tennessee Titans	0-2	0.6849 (LW × 0.790)	lost by 3 vs Texans
27 (↓1)	Kansas City Chiefs	0-2	0.6221 (LW × 1.437)	lost by 3 vs Raiders
28 (↓11)	Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2	0.6055 (LW × 0.698)	lost by 14 vs Cardinals
29 (↓1)	St. Louis Rams	0-2	0.5788 (LW × 1.478)	lost by 2 at Redskins
30 (↑2)	Carolina Panthers	0-2	0.5169 (LW × 1.553)	lost by 8 at Falcons
31 (↓6)	Miami Dolphins	0-2	0.4982 (LW × 1.135)	lost by 4 vs Colts
32 (↓3)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2	0.3890 (LW × 1.050)	lost by 13 at Bills

Comments

• As expected, a lot of churn—9 teams move at least 8 spots.

• A lot of new teams in the top 10. Note that the Broncos, Cardinals, and Bengals are among the biggest movers, and I suspect most likely to have a short stay near the top.

• Hard to know what to make of the Saints—they had a strong preseason, but they've only beat the Lions and McNabb-less Eagles. They play the Jets in week 4, which could actually be a marquee matchup.

• The Steelers are in the bottom 10 because they have one close home win against an 0-2 team. And the Titans are there because they are 0-2 against a couple of 1-1 teams. I expect this is the only week the Steelers will be ranked behind the Lions.

NFL Week 2 Pick Results

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Pick results for week 2.

Unanimous picks (6-5)

Correctly picked:

Panthers @ Falcons
Vikings @ Lions
Browns @ Broncos
Buccaneers @ Bills
Rams @ Redskins
Colts @ Dolphins

Not so much:

Bengals @ Packers

Rumors of the Packers making it to the playoffs this season turn out to be highly premature. Rodgers was sacked 5 times, special teams gave up a couple of big returns, and the defense gave up 3 long scoring drives. Carson Palmer threw a couple interceptions, but it wasn't enough to spoil the Bengals' day.

Steelers @ Bears

Sometimes the Steelers' ability to score points goes into hibernation. Last year, they were 3-3 in games where they scored 14 or fewer points.

Texans @ Titans

Last year, except for their two games against the Colts, nobody scored more than 17 points on the Titans. The fact that the Texans doubled that makes me think the Titans are really missing Albert Haynesworth.

Cardinals @ Jaguars

The Jaguars started slow, and seemed to give up when a blocked FG returned for a touchdown put the Cardinals up 21-3. With Maurice Jones-Drew mostly held in check, David Garrard just couldn't find his receivers often enough to get the Jaguars back in the game.

Giants @ Cowboys

This was a breakdown for the Cowboys on both sides of the ball. Romo threw 3 disasterous interceptions, and Manning had 330 yards passing against their defense.

Last year, the Cowboys were 1-6 when their opponents scored 26 or more points. They managed to score 33 or more points just 3 times. It doesn't look like that's changed at all.

Split Picks (APR, SRS 3-2), Line (2-3)

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Patriots (Line)

The Patriots offense is in trouble. They didn't score more than 10 points until late in the 4th quarter last week, and they didn't score more than 9 points at all this week. It's the first time the Patriots were held to less than 10 points since they were shut out by the Dolphins in 2006.

Raiders (APR, SRS) @ Chiefs (Line)

This makes the 3rd year in a row the Raiders have got a win at Kansas City.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)

I'm still not sure why the Line liked an AFC West team over a powerhouse team like the Ravens. Still, the fact that the Ravens have struggled to beat the Chiefs and Chargers does not bode well for them. (Or could we be looking at an AFC resurgance? Nah, I'll believe that when I see it.)

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

The Seahawks' 28-point win over the Rams looks better if you don't know how terrible the Rams have been lately. And with two wins to their credit, the 49ers are looking more like the team to beat in the NFC West.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

APR and SRS don't take injuries into account. And Kolb's 3 interceptions certainly didn't make the case for a quarterback controversy in Philadelphia.

Standings:

	This Week	Overall
APR	9-7	9-7
SRS	9-7	9-7
Line	8-8	8-8
Unanimous	6-5	6-5

New power rankings, and Week 3 picks to come.

2009 NFL & NCAA Links

2008 / 2010

This is a post of links to the NFL- and NCAA-related posts made during the 2009 season. Entries will be linkified as new posts are added.

NFL 2009 Season

Week 1	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 2	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 3	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 4	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 5	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 6	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 7	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 8	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 9	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 10	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 11	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 12	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 13	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 14	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 15	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 16	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Week 17	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Wildcard	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Divisional	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Championship	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings
Super Bowl	Picks	Pick Results	Power Rankings

• Q1 Strength of remaining schedule
• Q2 Strength of remaining schedule
• Q3 Strength of remaining schedule

NCAA

Week 4 Top 30+
Week 5 Top 30+
Week 6 Top 30+
Week 7 Top 30+
Week 8 Top 30+
Week 9 Top 30+
Week 10 Top 30+
Week 11 Top 30+
Week 12 Top 30+
Week 13 Top 30+
Week 14 Top 30+
Bowl game picks
Final Top 30+

Wrapup

• APR vs ESPN
• APR's Upsets
• APR Picks by Team
• Pythagorean Projection vs Reality
• Significance of First Two Games
• APR Pick Reliability

NFL Week 2 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Picks for week 2, based on the week 1 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons	Falcons ρ=9.5661	Falcons δ=40.00	Falcons -6
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions	Vikings ρ=7.8919	Vikings δ=32.00	Vikings -10
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos	Broncos ρ=5.2436	Broncos δ=19.00	Broncos -3
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins	Colts ρ=4.1784	Colts δ=14.00	Colts -3
Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers	Packers ρ=3.4643	Packers δ=11.00	Packers -9
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears	Steelers ρ=2.9440	Steelers δ=9.00	Steelers -3
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans	Titans ρ=2.4067	Titans δ=14.00	Titans -6½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills	Bills ρ=2.3399	Bills δ=12.00	Bills -5
New England Patriots @ New York Jets	Jets ρ=1.7889	Jets δ=16.00	Patriots -3½
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs	Raiders ρ=1.7018	Raiders δ=10.00	Chiefs -3
Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers	Ravens ρ=1.6372	Ravens δ=10.00	Chargers -3
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins	Redskins ρ=1.5910	Redskins δ=22.00	Redskins -9½
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers	Seahawks ρ=1.5455	Seahawks δ=24.00	49ers -1½
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.3067	Cowboys δ=7.00	Cowboys -3
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars	Jaguars ρ=1.1767	Jaguars δ=2.00	Jaguars -3
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.0090	Eagles δ=10.00	Saints -1

Comments:

• Last year's Broncos @ Browns game featured a spectacular collapse by the Browns—one of the reasons they have a new HC this year.

• I'm not really sure why the line likes the Chargers over the Ravens. The fact that the Chargers nearly lost to the Raiders on MNF doesn't make me think there's been any great improvement in them over last year.

• No line for Saints @ Eagles, either at yahoo or footballlocks. I would think because of the Eagles' QB issues, the Saints will be favored by something (but if they're not, it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong about such things).

• Update: yahoo is now saying Saints - 1. Also, the Eagles aren't ruling out McNabb for Sunday.

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR

Note that this is using a new (and hopefully improved) margin power function, so these power values are not comparable to the values from last year.

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1	Dallas Cowboys	3.3357	1-0	won @ Buccaneers by 13
2	Minnesota Vikings	3.3224	1-0	won @ Browns by 14
3	New York Jets	3.2824	1-0	won @ Texans by 17
4	Atlanta Falcons	3.1846	1-0	won vs Dolphins by 12
5	Baltimore Ravens	3.1592	1-0	won vs Chiefs by 14
6	Philadelphia Eagles	3.1364	1-0	won @ Panthers by 28
7	New Orleans Saints	3.1085	1-0	won vs Lions by 18
8	Seattle Seahawks	2.9823	1-0	won vs Rams by 28
T9	Green Bay Packers	2.5529	1-0	won vs Bears by 6
T9	New York Giants	2.5529	1-0	won vs Redskins by 6
T11	Denver Bronocs	1.9296	1-0	won @ Bengals by 5
T11	San Diego Chargers	1.9296	1-0	won @ Raiders by 4
T11	San Francisco 49ers	1.9296	1-0	won @ Cardinals by 4
T14	Indianapolis Colts	1.8349	1-0	won vs Jaguars by 2
T14	New England Patriots	1.8349	1-0	won vs Bills by 1
T14	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.8349	1-0	won vs Titans by 3
T17	Buffalo Bills	0.8671	0-1	lost @ Patriots by 1
T17	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.8671	0-1	lost @ Colts by 2
T17	Tennessee Titans	0.8671	0-1	lost @ Steelers by 3
T20	Cincinnati Bengals	0.7369	0-1	lost vs Broncos by 5
T20	Arizona Cardinals	0.7369	0-1	lost vs 49ers by 4
T20	Oakland Raiders	0.7369	0-1	lost vs Chargers by 4
T23	Chigaco Bears	0.6233	0-1	lost @ Packers by 6
T23	Washington Redskins	0.6233	0-1	lost @ Giants by 6
25	Miami Dolphins	0.4391	0-1	lost @ Falcons by 12
26	Kansas City Chiefs	0.4330	0-1	lost @ Ravens by 14
27	Detroit Lions	0.4210	0-1	lost @ Saints by 18
28	St. Louis Rams	0.3917	0-1	lost @ Seahawks by 28
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.3706	0-1	lost vs Cowboys by 13
30	Cleveland Browns	0.3680	0-1	lost vs Vikings by 14
31	Houston Texans	0.3603	0-1	lost vs Jets by 17
32	Carolina Panthers	0.3329	0-1	lost vs Eagles by 28

Comments

• These rankings are based on one game (no preseason data was included). Don't freak out if you think your team is ranked too low; things will settle out as more games are played.

• In particular, all 1-0 teams are ranked above all 0-1 teams; I'm sure we'll see teams like the Titans and Bears move up in short order, while the Broncos will... find their own level as well.

• Note that there are a number of ties in the rankings.

• If you followed the NFL last year, you may want to look at last year's Week 1 Power Rankings for comparison.

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of Pythagorean Projection
Read this for a description of how I used it to pick games

Pick results for week 2.

Unanimous picks (11-2)

Correctly picked:

Chiefs @ Ravens
Lions @ Saints
Vikings @ Browns
Redskins @ Giants
Jaguars @ Colts
Rams @ Seahawks
Eagles & Panthers
Dolphins @ Falcons
Bears @ Packers
Bills @ Patriots
Chargers @ Raiders

Not so much:

49ers @ Cardinals

The Cardinals' defense played well in this game (especially given the two interceptions Kurt Warner threw). But the 49ers have been playing a lot better since Singletary took over as HC; I don't think this was a fluke win. The 49ers could have a real shot to win the NFC West this year, even if the Cardinals play at the same level they were last year (which, for the regular season, isn't a very high bar to cross).

Titans @ Steelers

According to the Pythagorean Projection, this was one of the closest matchups this weekend (second only to Bears @ Packers), so it's no surprise it was close.

Split Picks (Pythagoras 2-1) (Line 1-2)

Broncos (Pythagoras) @ Bengals (Line)

Both offenses struggled in this game; the score was 6-0 Broncos until the Bengals scored a go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute to play.

That should have been the game for the Broncos—before their final score, they had only one drive go for more than 34 yards. But the Bengals snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by tipping the ball right into the arms of Brandon Stokley, who caught the ball in stride, and was so wide open he could run a couple seconds off the clock before stepping into the end zone.

Jets (Pythagoras) @ Texans (Line)

You may have read Peter King picked the Texans to win the AFC South. I wonder if he'd like a do-over on that? The Jets have to be ecstatic over Mark Sanchez right now. Of course, with the Patriots, Titans, and Saints coming up, the party may not last long...

Cowboys (Line) @ Buccaneers (Pythagoras)

Pythagoras' prediction of the Cowboys demise may be a bit premature. Of course, Pythagorean Projection doesn't take into account the Buccaneers' late-season collapse last year, or their situation at quarterback.

Overall

That's a very respectable 13-3 for Pythagoras, and 12-4 for the line. I'm not going to follow Pythagoras week-by-week, but I will have a year-end summary like this one for 2007-2008. I will be following the line picks week by week, same as last year.

New power rankings, and Week 2 picks to come!

NFL Week 1 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Why yes, now that you mention it—I am ready for some football.

Picks for week 1. As usual, APR and SRS require at least a week's worth of games before they can work, so I'm picking week 1 using the Pythagorean projection method (described here). The usual APR/SRS picks will start next week.

Line data is from yahoo.com and are for comparison purposes only.

Game	Pythagorean	Line
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens	Ravens -7.5800	Ravens -13
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints	Saints -6.7500	Saints -13
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders	Chargers -5.6193	Chargers -9
Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns	Vikings -4.8335	Vikings -4
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants	Giants -4.3668	Giants -6½
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts	Colts -3.9891	Colts -7
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals	Broncos -2.9811	Bengals -4½
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks -2.7913	Seahawks -8½
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots	Patriots -2.7528	Patriots -10½
New York Jets @ Houston Texans	Jets -1.9102	Texans -5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers	Eagles -1.1273	Eagles -1
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers -1.1266	Cowboys -6
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals	Cardinals -1.1224	Cardinals -6½
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons	Falcons -0.9255	Falcons -4
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers	Titans -0.2110	Titans -6
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers	Packers -0.1695	Packers -3½

Comments

• The numbers under the Pythagorean column represent the differences in projected wins for the corresponding teams (i.e., the units are 'Games Won', and not comparable to the 'points scored' line values).

• Disagreements on Broncos @ Bengals, Jets @ Texans, and Cowboys @ Buccaneers. Note that in all 3 cases, the teams favored by Pythagorean projection have quarterback issues.

NFL: Coaching Fail

PFT: Favre throws illegal crackback block as nightcap

This brings to mind a couple questions:

• How much practice do you suppose Favre has blocking? And not getting called for holding, or block in the back, or (as in this case), illegal chop block?

• Favre still has a (supposedly minor) tear in his rotator cuff, and a cracked rib. He's going to be 40 years old in just over a month, and all that wear and tear has to add up. Exactly how much more abuse do the coaches want to subject his body to?

Of course, the really gob-smacking thing about this whole incident is that it was done for a meaningless preseason game. The only way this could have gone worse is if Favre or Eugene Wilson had to be carted off the field with season- or career-ending injuries (though in Favre's case, that's likely a difference without distinction).

The Vikings' coaching staff is in desperate need of some adult supervision. The Vikings have enough raw athletic talent on their team that they'll be able to flat-out power their way to wins against some of the weaker teams on their schedule. But they're bound to struggle when they face talented, prepared and well-coached opponents this season.