NFL Q3 Strength of Schedule

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Vikings	0.9644	21	0.8843
2	Ravens	0.9452	30	0.8579
3	Cardinals	0.9420	6	0.9080
4	Dolphins	0.9381	28	0.8632
5	Rams	0.9269	4	0.9100
6	Saints	0.9227	23	0.8796
7	Lions	0.9170	12	0.8957
8	Eagles	0.9143	13	0.8943
9	Falcons	0.9115	32	0.8438
10	Texans	0.9011	22	0.8801
11	Patriots	0.8997	24	0.8782
12	Buccaneers	0.8977	27	0.8653
13	49ers	0.8976	9	0.8996
14	Seahawks	0.8947	10	0.8988
15	Bears	0.8938	18	0.8909
16	Titans	0.8907	11	0.8978
17	Packers	0.8893	5	0.9082
18	Giants	0.8883	15	0.8920
19	Steelers	0.8861	31	0.8577
20	Jaguars	0.8840	7	0.9078
21	Colts	0.8801	26	0.8702
22	Redskins	0.8758	16	0.8911
23	Chiefs	0.8733	8	0.9000
24	Cowboys	0.8683	3	0.9146
25	Bengals	0.8645	29	0.8616
26	Chargers	0.8580	25	0.8736
27	Raiders	0.8545	19	0.8861
28	Browns	0.8534	17	0.8911
29	Bills	0.8528	14	0.8934
30	Panthers	0.8343	2	0.9251
31	Broncos	0.8319	20	0.8861
32	Jets	0.8058	1	0.9373

Comments:

• As usual, these numbers don't include the result of Thursday night's game.

• The surging Redskins are the only team left on the Ravens' schedule with a losing record. If they're anywhere as good as their 9-2 record, the Ravens will have plenty of chances to prove it.

• The Vikings are another team with a brutal remaining schedule. They may not make it to 8 wins this year.

• The Jets finally overtake the Broncos for easiest remaining schedule, which means they have at least a shot of getting to 9-7. The bad news is it'll probably take at least 10 wins to get a wildcard spot in the AFC this year.

• The Packers and Bears both have relatively easy remaining schedules; the NFC North is probably going to come down to their second match-up in week 15.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Texans @ Titans	Texans ρ=1.2372	Texans* δ=17.5	Texans -5½
Panthers @ Chiefs	Panthers ρ=1.2210	Panthers* δ=11.6	Panthers -2½
Patriots @ Dolphins	Patriots ρ=1.2197	Patriots* δ=17.1	Patriots -9
49ers @ Rams	49ers ρ=1.2196	49ers* δ=13.7	49ers -7
Eagles @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.1937	Cowboys δ=8.9	Cowboys -9½
Buccaneers @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.1390	Broncos δ=4.7	Broncos -7
Jaguars @ Bills	Bills* ρ=1.1309	Bills δ=4.6	Bills -6
Giants @ Redskins	Giants ρ=1.1208	Giants* δ=6.6	Giants -2½
Vikings @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1176	Packers δ=4.4	Packers -9
Browns @ Raiders	Browns ρ=1.1026	Browns* δ=9.4	Raiders -1½
Cardinals @ Jets	Jets* ρ=1.0967	Cardinals* δ=1.0	Jets -4½
Bengals @ Chargers	Bengals ρ=1.0742	Bengals* δ=1.9	Bengals -1
Saints @ Falcons	Falcons* ρ=1.0573	Falcons δ=4.7	Falcons -3½
Steelers @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0527	Ravens δ=4.6	Ravens -9
Seahawks @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0294	Bears δ=4.4	Bears -4½
Colts @ Lions	Colts* ρ=1.0055	Lions δ=5.7	Lions -4½

Comments:

• No line for Steelers @ Ravens at the moment; I'll update later in the week. Update: football locks is saying Ravens -9. Sounds good to me.

• It seems like there's a lot of match-ups this week to determine draft position. Does anyone really want to watch Browns @ Raiders?

• At least the Panthers should get their 4th win, and maybe even finally drop of the "Teams APR likes more than ESPN" list.

• SRS makes another rogue pick. This time I'm not sure that's totally wrong. Certainly, I think the Cardinals would have a decent chance to beat the Jets if the game was in Arizona instead of New Jersey.

• Should the Falcons be on upset alert again? My comments from week 10 still apply. And the Saints are 5-1 in their last 6 trips to Atlanta...

NFL: Week 12 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble

Another week, another close win for the Falcons (+6).

ESPN somehow gives the Colts (+6) a 5-spot bump on their less-than-dominating win over the 4-7 Bills.

The Ravens (+6) have amassed a 9-2 record, but it's really not a good sign they played behind the 4-7 Chargers most of the game, and needed to convert 4th and 29 just to get to overtime.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-7)

The Panthers finally found another team they could beat. And some of their early-season based power is finally getting to the fall-off part of APR's weighting curve.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than the Broncos (-5).

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-4)

Right:

Texans @ Lions
Patriots @ Jets
Broncos @ Chiefs
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Ravens @ Chargers
49ers @ Saints
Vikings @ Bears
Raiders @ Bengals

Wrong:

Redskins @ Cowboys

The Cowboys followed what is getting to be a familiar script: turnovers and bad defense let their opponent sprint out to an early lead. Some late-game heroics made things interesting towards the end, but ultimately fell short.

Seahawks @ Dolphins

The Seahawks' defense gave up 435 yards to the Dolphins; only the Patriots gained more on them this season. Which is bad news for a team that's 2-5 when they give up 13 or more points.

Steelers @ Browns

The Steelers had 3 interceptions and 5 lost fumbles. Even the Browns can get a win when you spot them 8 turnovers.

Titans @ Jaguars

Chad Henne may not be a great quarterback, but it's starting to look like he's solidly better than Blaine Gabbert. Henne has led the Jaguars to their two highest-scoring results of the season, and their second win.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-1, SRS: 1-3, Line: 2-2)

Rams (APR) @ Cardinals (SRS, Line)

Ryan Lindley had some decent first-half drives, and actually managed a half-time lead. But four interceptions, including a couple of pick-6s, was way more than the Cardinals were able to overcome.

Panthers (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

I almost wonder if I misread the line when I was doing the picks last week. The Panthers aren't a very good team, but the Eagles (particularly their defense) are just awful.

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

The Packers continue to have many of the same issues that bounced them out of the playoffs last January: the offensive line barely slowed the Giants' pass rush, and the Packers' defense couldn't buy a stop. Even when they get all their playmakers back on the field and up to speed, the Packers' o-line issues may be a deal-breaker for another Super Bowl run.

Bills (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)

Like I said in the game picks, it would've been a shock for the Bills to win this. But they did manage to pull within a touchdown in the 4th quarter, and had a couple of chances to tie the game (and might have had a third, except their defense couldn't stop the Colts from running out the final 3:22 of the game).

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	5			97	-	62	-	1	60.9%
SRS	9	-	7			95	-	64	-	1	60.0%
Line	10	-	6			105	-	54	-	1	65.9%

NFL: Week 12 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Patriots	1.0561 (LW × 1.0195)	8-3	Won by 30 @ Jets
2 (↓1)	Broncos	1.0479 (LW × 0.9927)	8-3	Won by 8 @ Chiefs
3 (-)	49ers	1.0370 (LW × 1.0066)	8-2-1	Won by 10 @ Saints
4 (↑1)	Texans	1.0172 (LW × 0.9931)	10-1	Won by 3 @ Lions
5 (↑2)	Bears	0.9934 (LW × 1.0109)	8-3	Won by 18 vs Vikings
6 (↑4)	Giants	0.9855 (LW × 1.0394)	7-4	Won by 28 vs Packers
7 (↓3)	Packers	0.9854 (LW × 0.9616)	7-4	Lost by 28 @ Giants
8 (-)	Falcons	0.9684 (LW × 0.9921)	10-1	Won by 1 @ Buccaneers
9 (↓3)	Seahawks	0.9650 (LW × 0.9740)	6-5	Lost by 3 @ Dolphins
10 (↓1)	Ravens	0.9613 (LW × 1.0093)	9-2	Won by 3 @ Chargers
11 (-)	Buccaneers	0.9200 (LW × 0.9925)	6-5	Lost by 1 vs Falcons
12 (-)	Saints	0.9159 (LW × 0.9890)	5-6	Lost by 10 vs 49ers
13 (-)	Steelers	0.9132 (LW × 0.9939)	6-5	Lost by 6 @ Browns
14 (↑3)	Bengals	0.9100 (LW × 1.0285)	6-5	Won by 24 vs Raiders
15 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8817 (LW × 0.9654)	6-5	Lost by 18 @ Bears
16 (↑3)	Colts	0.8809 (LW × 1.0258)	7-4	Won by 7 vs Bills
17 (↓2)	Cowboys	0.8805 (LW × 0.9735)	5-6	Lost by 7 vs Redskins
18 (↑3)	Redskins	0.8793 (LW × 1.0295)	5-6	Won by 7 @ Cowboys
19 (↓3)	Lions	0.8761 (LW × 0.9882)	4-7	Lost by 3 vs Texans
20 (↑4)	Dolphins	0.8658 (LW × 1.0180)	5-6	Won by 3 vs Seahawks
21 (↓1)	Panthers	0.8650 (LW × 1.0109)	3-8	Won by 8 @ Eagles
22 (↓4)	Jets	0.8516 (LW × 0.9815)	4-7	Lost by 30 vs Patriots
23 (↑2)	Rams	0.8503 (LW × 1.0200)	4-6-1	Won by 14 @ Cardinals
24 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8471 (LW × 0.9934)	4-7	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
25 (↓2)	Bills	0.8429 (LW × 0.9903)	4-7	Lost by 7 @ Colts
26 (↑2)	Browns	0.8375 (LW × 1.0388)	3-8	Won by 6 vs Steelers
27 (↓1)	Titans	0.8222 (LW × 0.9914)	4-7	Lost by 5 @ Jaguars
28 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.7765 (LW × 0.9381)	4-7	Lost by 14 vs Rams
29 (-)	Raiders	0.7595 (LW × 0.9872)	3-8	Lost by 24 @ Bengals
30 (↑1)	Jaguars	0.7453 (LW × 1.0162)	2-9	Won by 5 vs Titans
31 (↓1)	Eagles	0.7376 (LW × 0.9705)	3-8	Lost by 8 vs Panthers
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7085 (LW × 1.0109)	1-10	Lost by 8 vs Broncos

Comments:

• The Texans need another 4th-quarter come-back and overtime to beat a lesser team. The Lions are better than the Jaguars, but still, it's really not a good trend for the supposedly-best team in the AFC.

• The Ravens are another AFC team with a record that seems a lot better than how they're playing. They only managed a win this week because the Chargers are really, really bad.

• My usual rule of thumb is that once it gets to be Thanksgiving, any team that is two or more games out of a playoff spot is done. That eliminates half the field on the AFC side.

• As long as Ben Roethlisberger can't play, the Steelers seem almost certain to drop out of contention. And even if he does come back, I wonder how effective he can be if he's not 100%.

• So, apparently the Seahawks are upset about a bad call that cost them a game. But, as they say, in the long run these things even out.

NFL Week 12 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Broncos @ Chiefs	Broncos ρ=1.5063	Broncos δ=24.0	Broncos -10½
Patriots @ Jets	Patriots ρ=1.1938	Patriots* δ=14.4	Patriots -7
Seahawks @ Dolphins	Seahawks ρ=1.1649	Seahawks* δ=11.4	Seahawks -3
Texans @ Lions	Texans ρ=1.1554	Texans* δ=10.1	Texans -3
Raiders @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.1499	Bengals δ=11.3	Bengals -8
Steelers @ Browns	Steelers ρ=1.1396	Steelers* δ=5.6	Steelers -1
Titans @ Jaguars	Titans ρ=1.1307	Titans* δ=3.6	Titans -2½
Panthers @ Eagles	Panthers ρ=1.1259	Panthers* δ=6.6	Eagles -2
Ravens @ Chargers	Ravens ρ=1.1168	Ravens* δ=5.2	Ravens -1½
49ers @ Saints	49ers ρ=1.1124	49ers* δ=12.6	49ers -1½
Packers @ Giants	Packers ρ=1.0808	Packers* δ=1.9	Giants -2½
Vikings @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0760	Bears δ=7.2	Bears -2½
Redskins @ Cowboys	Cowboys* ρ=1.0589	Cowboys δ=0.4	Cowboys -3
Falcons @ Buccaneers	Falcons ρ=1.0530	Falcons* δ=1.6	Falcons -1
Bills @ Colts	Colts* ρ=1.0088	Bills* δ=0.7	Colts -3
Rams @ Cardinals	Rams ρ=1.0071	Cardinals δ=1.4	Cardinals -1

Comments:

• A lot of really close lines this week. Even SRS is making a rogue pick (though even I would be shocked to see the Colts lose to the Bills).

• The lines for the Bears and Steelers may move around some this week, depending on how their respective quarterback situations develop.

• The Giants are 1-4 this season when the defense doesn't get at least 3 turnovers. If the Packers can hang onto the ball (and the receivers catch it when it comes their way), they could have a decent chance for an upset.

• The way the Falcons have been playing lately, I'm not sure why they aren't flat-out underdogs going to Tampa Bay to face the surging Buccaneers (5-1 in their last 6). This will be just the 2nd time this season the Falcons have faced a team that (currently) has a winning record.

NFL Week 11 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 11 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

ESPN drops the Colts back to Earth after they got dismantled by the Patriots, which just leaves:

On the bubble

The Falcons (+6) continue to rack up close wins against lesser opponents. I've been watching APR long enough to know that's not a good sign for a happy ending to the season.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-9)

The Panthers are, in some sense, a cautionary tale of what the Falcons could be, with only a few missed plays. They've both played a lot of games that were close in the 4th quarter. But unlike the Falcons, the Panthers just can't find a way to hold onto a 4th-quarter lead.

On the bubble

Patriots, Seahawks, Broncos (-6)

NFL Week 11 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (11-1)

Right:

Bengals @ Chiefs
Packers @ Lions
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Saints @ Raiders
Ravens @ Steelers
Jaguars @ Texans
Cardinals @ Falcons
Browns @ Cowboys
Eagles @ Redskins
Colts @ Patriots
Chargers @ Broncos

Wrong:

Jets @ Rams

This is actually how things were supposed to go for the Jets—a dominating defense producing turnovers, a productive running game, and an environment where Sanchez only needs to throw 20 times a game.

Split Picks: (APR: 0-2, SRS: 0-2, Line: 2-0)

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)

This was a combination of Ryan Tannehill looking very much a rookie (50% completion rate, 2 interceptions, and barely 5 yards per attempt) along with a no-show from the running game.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

Perhaps the biggest problem for the Bears in this game was bad defense—they allowed the 49ers to score 20 first-half points (mostly on long drives, too). Add in 6 sacks, 2 interceptions, and an ineffective running game, and it's a recipe for disaster.

Totals

A decent week for everybody, but a remarkable week for the Line.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	3			86	-	57	-	1	60.1%
SRS	11	-	3			86	-	57	-	1	60.1%
Line	13	-	1			95	-	48	-	1	66.3%

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Broncos	1.0556 (LW × 0.9945)	7-3	Won by 7 vs Chargers
2 (↑3)	Patriots	1.0359 (LW × 1.0178)	7-3	Won by 35 vs Colts
3 (↑3)	49ers	1.0302 (LW × 1.0246)	7-2-1	Won by 25 vs Bears
4 (-)	Packers	1.0247 (LW × 0.9994)	7-3	Won by 4 @ Lions
5 (↓4)	Texans	1.0244 (LW × 0.9643)	9-1	Won by 6 vs Jaguars
6 (↑2)	Seahawks	0.9908 (LW × 1.0004)	6-4	Bye
7 (↓4)	Bears	0.9827 (LW × 0.9521)	7-3	Lost by 25 @ 49ers
8 (↓1)	Falcons	0.9761 (LW × 0.9718)	9-1	Won by 4 vs Cardinals
9 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9524 (LW × 1.0080)	8-2	Won by 3 @ Steelers
10 (↓1)	Giants	0.9481 (LW × 0.9992)	6-4	Bye
11 (↑2)	Buccaneers	0.9270 (LW × 1.0110)	6-4	Won by 6 @ Panthers
12 (↑3)	Saints	0.9261 (LW × 1.0284)	5-5	Won by 21 @ Raiders
13 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9188 (LW × 0.9813)	6-4	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
14 (-)	Vikings	0.9133 (LW × 1.0027)	6-4	Bye
15 (↓3)	Cowboys	0.9044 (LW × 0.9792)	5-5	Won by 3 vs Browns
16 (-)	Lions	0.8866 (LW × 0.9927)	4-6	Lost by 4 vs Packers
17 (↑2)	Bengals	0.8848 (LW × 1.0228)	5-5	Won by 22 @ Chiefs
18 (↑8)	Jets	0.8677 (LW × 1.0373)	4-6	Won by 14 @ Rams
19 (↑1)	Colts	0.8587 (LW × 0.9965)	6-4	Lost by 35 @ Patriots
20 (↓2)	Panthers	0.8557 (LW × 0.9810)	2-8	Lost by 6 vs Buccaneers
21 (↑2)	Redskins	0.8541 (LW × 1.0081)	4-6	Won by 25 vs Eagles
22 (-)	Chargers	0.8528 (LW × 0.9981)	4-6	Lost by 7 @ Broncos
23 (↑2)	Bills	0.8512 (LW × 1.0167)	4-6	Won by 5 vs Dolphins
24 (↓3)	Dolphins	0.8506 (LW × 0.9938)	4-6	Lost by 5 @ Bills
25 (↓8)	Rams	0.8336 (LW × 0.9529)	3-6-1	Lost by 14 vs Jets
26 (↓2)	Titans	0.8293 (LW × 0.9902)	4-6	Bye
27 (-)	Cardinals	0.8277 (LW × 0.9984)	4-6	Lost by 4 @ Falcons
28 (↑2)	Browns	0.8062 (LW × 1.0243)	2-8	Lost by 3 @ Cowboys
29 (↓1)	Raiders	0.7694 (LW × 0.9717)	3-7	Lost by 21 vs Saints
30 (↓1)	Eagles	0.7600 (LW × 0.9651)	3-7	Lost by 25 @ Redskins
31 (-)	Jaguars	0.7335 (LW × 1.0210)	1-9	Lost by 6 @ Texans
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7008 (LW × 0.9763)	1-9	Lost by 22 vs Bengals

Comments:

• So remember how I was saying that ESPN had the Colts overrated at #11? Yeah, that's pretty much what I was talking about, right there.

• On the other hand, that prediction that the Raiders could upset the Saints? Let us never speak of it again.

• On the gripping hand, the Saints still have the 49ers, and road games at the Falcons and Giants. Barring a miraculous turn-around on their defense, it will be a major accomplishment for them to make it to 9 wins this year.

• The Falcons get to 9 wins, but they can't be real happy about Matt Ryan's 5 interceptions, or needing a 4th-quarter come-back to beat the Cardinals. They may clinch a bye in the playoffs, but it's real easy to see them having another 1-and-done playoffs, too.

NFL Week 11 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Jaguars @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.4787	Texans δ=24.0	Texans -15½
Chargers @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.2423	Broncos δ=11.9	Broncos -7½
Cardinals @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.2116	Falcons δ=7.0	Falcons -10
Bengals @ Chiefs	Bengals ρ=1.2051	Bengals* δ=10.9	Bengals -3½
Colts @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1811	Patriots δ=14.5	Patriots -9½
Browns @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.1736	Cowboys δ=7.8	Cowboys -7½
Packers @ Lions	Packers ρ=1.1481	Packers* δ=8.4	Packers -3
Saints @ Raiders	Saints ρ=1.1371	Saints* δ=10.8	Saints -4½
Eagles @ Redskins	Redskins ρ=1.0759	Redskins δ=4.9	Redskins -3
Buccaneers @ Panthers	Buccaneers ρ=1.0511	Buccaneers* δ=4.6	Buccaneers -1
Jets @ Rams	Rams ρ=1.0458	Rams δ=2.7	Rams -3
Bears @ 49ers	Bears ρ=1.0265	Bears* δ=1.3	49ers -5
Dolphins @ Bills	Dolphins ρ=1.0223	Dolphins* δ=3.0	Bills -1
Ravens @ Steelers	Ravens* ρ=1.0091	Ravens* δ=4.2	Ravens -1

Bye: Giants, Titans, Vikings, Seahawks

Comments:

• Peyton Manning hit 420 career touchdown passes last Sunday, which puts him in a tie for second all-time with Dan Marino. That's also 88 behind Brett Favre, so Manning is still around 3 solid seasons of play from breaking the record.

• So, the Saints are 4-1 in their last 5, and everything's all better now? I don't think so. They've managed to pick off some weaker opponents, but they still have one of the league's worst defenses, and are still just 1-3 on the road. The Raiders have been playing tough at home, and I think Carson Palmer can take advantage of the Saints porous defense to pull out an upset.

• The Cowboys have a chance to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. If they're going to have a shot at the playoffs, this next home stretch (Browns, Redskins, Eagles) is one they're going to have to win out.

• Like last week's Texans @ Bears, the Bears @ 49ers should be another low-scoring game, probably turning on which quarterback can catch the opposing defense in a mistake.

• It's come to this for the Dolphins—the line isn't even giving them a point over the Bills. The Bills haven't beaten anyone except the Chiefs, Browns, and the free-falling Cardinals.

NFL Week 10 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 10 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+9)

ESPN holds the Colts at #11, which gives APR a chance to move them a little closer. If they can at least stay close to the Patriots next week, the Colts could even drop off this list all together.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than +5 (Cardinals, Eagles, Falcons, Ravens)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-11)

I don't have anything to add here to what I wrote last week. Except that if the Panthers continue to lose by multiple scores, APR will continue to drop them (and since ESPN has them at #29, that means they almost have to get closer together).

On the bubble

Rams (-6)

NFL Week 10 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-5-1)

Right:

Colts @ Jaguars
Broncos @ Panthers
Cowboys @ Eagles
Bills @ Patriots
Raiders @ Ravens
Chargers @ Buccaneers
Jets @ Seahawks
Chiefs @ Steelers

Wrong:

Giants @ Bengals

Once again, Eli Manning is getting the blame, and he certainly earned his share (that second interception, in particular, was just inexcusable). But he wasn't getting any help from the running game (almost non-existent before garbage time), the defense (who let A.J. Green get free for the Bengals first touchdown), or the special teams (who gave up a long Adam Jones punt return that set the Bengals up for their second touchdown).

Falcons @ Saints

The Falcons don't have a high-scoring offense—they've only scored more than 27 points in 2 games this season. And they don't have a particularly dominating defense—they've only held their opponents under 17 points in 2 games. That means they're in trouble any time they face an opponent who can score a lot of points, even when it's a team like the Saints who continue to give up yards (but not points!) at a record-setting pace.

Lions @ Vikings

The Vikings may not be a great team this year, but when you can't stop Adrian Peterson (171 yards and a TD) or Christian Ponder (221 yards and 2 TD), they become a very dangerous opponent.

Titans @ Dolphins

I'm not sure what to say about this game. The Titans had given up at least 19 points to every opponent, and failed to score more than 20 points in their 6 losses. This is a game the Dolphins should've won easily, especially at home. Instead, it was the Dolphins who couldn't gain yards, turned over the ball, and let the Titans score again and again.

Texans @ Bears

The Bears' defense did their job, holding the Texans to 13 points and generating 2 turnovers. But the Bears underperforming offense means they become very beatable when the defense and special teams doesn't make turnovers directly into scores.

Push:

Rams @ 49ers (Tie)

This was the 49er defense's worst performance of the season. The most passing yards (458) and most rushing yards (159) allowed of any game this season. These are also near-season highs for the Rams' offense. This was just the worst performance of the 49ers defense in a long while, and they should be glad to come away with this game as a tie, instead of a loss.

Split Picks:

None!

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	8	-	5	-	1	75	-	54	-	1	58.1%
SRS	8	-	5	-	1	75	-	54	-	1	58.1%
Line	8	-	5	-	1	82	-	47	-	1	63.5%

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑4)	Texans	1.0623 (LW × 1.0372)	8-1	Won by 7 @ Bears
2 (↑2)	Broncos	1.0615 (LW × 1.0321)	6-3	Won by 22 @ Panthers
3 (↓2)	Bears	1.0322 (LW × 0.9661)	7-2	Lost by 7 vs Texans
4 (↑2)	Packers	1.0253 (LW × 1.0022)	6-3	Bye
5 (↑2)	Patriots	1.0178 (LW × 0.9986)	6-3	Won by 6 vs Bills
6 (↓4)	49ers	1.0055 (LW × 0.9711)	6-2-1	Tied vs Rams
7 (↓4)	Falcons	1.0044 (LW × 0.9705)	8-1	Lost by 4 @ Saints
8 (↑1)	Seahawks	0.9904 (LW × 1.0046)	6-4	Won by 21 vs Jets
9 (↓1)	Giants	0.9489 (LW × 0.9407)	6-4	Lost by 18 @ Bengals
10 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9448 (LW × 1.0243)	7-2	Won by 35 vs Raiders
11 (↓1)	Steelers	0.9363 (LW × 0.9701)	6-3	Won by 3 vs Chiefs
12 (-)	Cowboys	0.9237 (LW × 1.0027)	4-5	Won by 15 @ Eagles
13 (↑3)	Buccaneers	0.9169 (LW × 1.0156)	5-4	Won by 10 vs Chargers
14 (↑3)	Vikings	0.9108 (LW × 1.0205)	6-4	Won by 10 vs Lions
15 (↑4)	Saints	0.9005 (LW × 1.0369)	4-5	Won by 4 vs Falcons
16 (↓3)	Lions	0.8931 (LW × 0.9763)	4-5	Lost by 10 @ Vikings
17 (↑1)	Rams	0.8748 (LW × 1.0050)	3-5-1	Tied @ 49ers
18 (↓3)	Panthers	0.8723 (LW × 0.9619)	2-7	Lost by 22 vs Broncos
19 (↑6)	Bengals	0.8651 (LW × 1.0424)	4-5	Won by 18 vs Giants
20 (↑3)	Colts	0.8617 (LW × 1.0200)	6-3	Won by 17 @ Jaguars
21 (↓7)	Dolphins	0.8559 (LW × 0.9434)	4-5	Lost by 34 vs Titans
22 (-)	Chargers	0.8544 (LW × 1.0055)	4-5	Lost by 10 @ Buccaneers
23 (↓2)	Redskins	0.8473 (LW × 0.9925)	3-6	Bye
24 (↑5)	Titans	0.8376 (LW × 1.0637)	4-6	Won by 34 @ Dolphins
25 (↑2)	Bills	0.8372 (LW × 1.0365)	3-6	Lost by 6 @ Patriots
26 (↓6)	Jets	0.8365 (LW × 0.9690)	3-6	Lost by 21 @ Seahawks
27 (↓3)	Cardinals	0.8290 (LW × 0.9924)	4-5	Bye
28 (-)	Raiders	0.7919 (LW × 0.9812)	3-6	Lost by 35 @ Ravens
29 (↓3)	Eagles	0.7875 (LW × 0.9519)	3-6	Lost by 15 vs Cowboys
30 (-)	Browns	0.7870 (LW × 1.0112)	2-7	Bye
31 (-)	Jaguars	0.7184 (LW × 0.9695)	1-8	Lost by 17 vs Colts
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7179 (LW × 1.0423)	1-8	Lost by 3 @ Steelers

Comments:

• The Bears are now 1-2 against teams with winning records. Which could be bad news, as their next 5 games are against opponents that (currently) have winning records.

• We have the first tie game since week 11 of the 2008 season. There still hasn't been a tie game prior to week 10 since 1988.

• The Colts have 4 teams left on their schedule with losing records (the Bills, Lions, Titans, and Chiefs). A 10-win season is actually within reach for them.

• The Bengals have 5 teams left on their schedule with losing records (the Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, and Eagles), and so they still have a decent shot to make it to 9 wins and perhaps challenge for a playoff spot.

• Wow, the Dolphins have had a really bad couple of weeks. From 4-3 and a decent shot at a wildcard, and maybe challenging the Patriots for the AFC East, to 4-6, and one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history.

• The Chiefs might actually be a half-way decent team if they could stop turning the ball over. This was the first game all year they haven't turned the ball over at least twice, and so no surprise that (excepting their OT win over the Saints), it was their best showing of the season.

NFL Week 10 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Chiefs @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.4013	Steelers δ=16.2	Steelers -11
Bills @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.2618	Patriots δ=19.1	Patriots -11
Giants @ Bengals	Giants ρ=1.2154	Giants* δ=13.9	Giants -4
Falcons @ Saints	Falcons ρ=1.1918	Falcons* δ=8.9	Falcons -2½
Rams @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.1894	49ers δ=13.9	49ers -11
Titans @ Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.1521	Dolphins δ=12.9	Dolphins -6
Raiders @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.1430	Ravens δ=8.7	Ravens -7½
Jets @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.1420	Seahawks δ=6.3	Seahawks -6½
Colts @ Jaguars	Colts ρ=1.1401	Colts* δ=5.9	Colts -3
Broncos @ Panthers	Broncos ρ=1.1341	Broncos* δ=8.6	Broncos -4
Cowboys @ Eagles	Cowboys ρ=1.1135	Cowboys* δ=7.0	Cowboys -1
Chargers @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers* ρ=1.0624	Buccaneers δ=5.0	Buccaneers -3
Texans @ Bears	Bears* ρ=1.0431	Bears δ=1.3	Bears -1
Lions @ Vikings	Lions ρ=1.0249	Lions* δ=0.7	Lions -1

Bye: Cardinals, Browns, Packers, Redskins

Comments:

• For the first time in the (admittedly somewhat short) hisory of FSPI, a completely unanimous set of picks.

• Should the Falcons be on upset alert this week? If that game really does come down to a 3-point difference, they will be in trouble until the last time their defense gets Drew Brees and the Saints offense off the field.

• At the half-way point of their season, the Saints are already well on their way to breaking the 1981 Colts record for most yards allowed in a season. They haven't shown any sign of turning things around, and with all but two of their remaining games to be played inside, they can't rely on weather conditions to help slow down their opponents.

• One of the reasons I'm not real big on the Colts is their loss (at home) to the Jaguars in week 3. If they really belong in the top half of the rankings, this is the kind of game the Colts need to win.

• The Chargers couldn't even score 7 points on the hapless Browns a couple weeks ago. And with Doug Martin sparking the Buccaneers' offense, 3 points doesn't seem like a lot to give.

• I was going to say it seems like the Broncos could make a blow-out of their game too, but the Panthers actually have one of the better pass defenses in the league, by pass yards allowed. Even with quarterbacks Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Eli Manning on their record, the Panthers are allowing just 224 passing yards per game.

APR vs. ESPN Week 9

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 9 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Last week, APR and ESPN were mostly in agreement, except for a couple noticalbe outliers. This week, they're still mostly in agreement, only those two outliers have moved even farther apart.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+12)

ESPN bumps the Colts 4 spots on their 3-point home win over the (now) 4-4 Dolphins. It just doesn't seem like that impressive a win.

Yeah, Luck threw for a rookie record 433 yards, and he Colts have a winning record, with a not-impossible shot to get to 9 wins and a chance at the playoffs. But this is also the same team that needed overtime to score 19 points on the Tennessee "what defense?" Titans, and the same team that got demolished by the can't-beat-anybody Jets.

There's just too many signs of a bad team for the Colts to be ranked as high as #11.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than +5 (Eagles, Chargers)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-14)

Yeah, APR is just wrong on this one. There's no way the Panthers deserved a 5-spot bump this week, no way they're anywhere near #15 right now. The problem is, a lot of close losses is not a sign of a team that'a about to break through—it's the sign of a team that doesn't know how to win.

On the bubble

Cowboys (-6), Rams (-6)

NFL Week 9 Pick Results

A quick scheduling note: I'm going to be away from my computer most of the day today, so APR vs. ESPN will not go up until sometime this evening.

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-3)

Right:

Bears @ Titans
Broncos @ Bengals
Lions @ Jaguars
Ravens @ Browns
Chiefs @ Chargers
Bills @ Texans
Cardinals @ Packers
Vikings @ Seahawks
Cowboys @ Falcons

Wrong:

Dolphins @ Colts

The Dolphins' defense gave up an astonishing 516 yards from scrimmage, the most this year. You just can't let Andrew Luck pass for 400 yards and a couple touchdowns, and expect to win.

Panthers @ Redskins

As I mentioned last week, the Panthers have been in virtually all their games this season. Two key differences for this one: the offense didn't have any turnovers (they've had at least one in every other game) and the defense held the Redskins to just 13 points.

Steelers @ Giants

The problems with the Giants' passing game is getting the lion's share of attention this week, but It continues to be about the running game for the Giants. They are 1-3 when the defense allows 143+ yards rushing, and 5-0 when they allow 84 yards or less.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-1, SRS: 1-1, Line: 1-1)

Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)

Rookie running back Doug Martin is proving to be a massive spark to the Bucs' offense (251 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns). Their defense didn't have the best day, but did come up with a couple critical late interception to end the Raiders' come-back attempt.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

About like I expected—the Saints scored a lot of points, and the Eagles couldn't keep up. Perhaps the only real surprise of the game is the Saints managed their first defensive score of the season.

Totals

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	10	-	4	67	-	49	57.8%
SRS	10	-	4	67	-	49	57.8%
Line	10	-	4	74	-	42	63.8%

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑2)	Bears	1.0684 (LW × 1.0238)	7-1	Won by 31 @ Titans
2 (↑2)	49ers	1.0354 (LW × 0.9991)	6-2	Bye
3 (↓2)	Falcons	1.0349 (LW × 0.9850)	8-0	Won by 6 vs Cowboys
4 (↑2)	Broncos	1.0284 (LW × 1.0079)	5-3	Won by 8 @ Bengals
5 (↓3)	Texans	1.0242 (LW × 0.9807)	7-1	Won by 12 vs Bills
6 (↑2)	Packers	1.0231 (LW × 1.0185)	6-3	Won by 14 vs Cardinals
7 (-)	Patriots	1.0192 (LW × 0.9995)	5-3	Bye
8 (↓3)	Giants	1.0086 (LW × 0.9808)	6-3	Lost by 4 vs Steelers
9 (-)	Seahawks	0.9858 (LW × 1.0214)	5-4	Won by 10 vs Vikings
10 (-)	Steelers	0.9651 (LW × 1.0129)	5-3	Won by 4 @ Giants
11 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9224 (LW × 1.0007)	6-2	Won by 10 @ Browns
12 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.9212 (LW × 1.0216)	3-5	Lost by 6 @ Falcons
13 (↑2)	Lions	0.9147 (LW × 1.0216)	4-4	Won by 17 @ Jaguars
14 (↓3)	Dolphins	0.9072 (LW × 0.9703)	4-4	Lost by 3 @ Colts
15 (↑5)	Panthers	0.9069 (LW × 1.0490)	2-6	Won by 8 @ Redskins
16 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.9028 (LW × 1.0310)	4-4	Won by 10 @ Raiders
17 (↓4)	Vikings	0.8925 (LW × 0.9884)	5-4	Lost by 10 @ Seahawks
18 (-)	Rams	0.8705 (LW × 0.9989)	3-5	Bye
19 (↑8)	Saints	0.8684 (LW × 1.0512)	3-5	Won by 15 vs Eagles
20 (↓1)	Jets	0.8633 (LW × 0.9942)	3-5	Bye
21 (↓5)	Redskins	0.8537 (LW × 0.9702)	3-6	Lost by 8 vs Panthers
22 (↑2)	Chargers	0.8498 (LW × 1.0025)	4-4	Won by 18 vs Chiefs
23 (↑2)	Colts	0.8448 (LW × 1.0163)	5-3	Won by 3 vs Dolphins
24 (↓2)	Cardinals	0.8354 (LW × 0.9699)	4-5	Lost by 14 @ Packers
25 (↓2)	Bengals	0.8299 (LW × 0.9757)	3-5	Lost by 8 vs Broncos
26 (↓5)	Eagles	0.8272 (LW × 0.9575)	3-5	Lost by 15 @ Saints
27 (↑1)	Bills	0.8078 (LW × 1.0041)	3-5	Lost by 12 @ Texans
28 (↓2)	Raiders	0.8071 (LW × 0.9720)	3-5	Lost by 10 vs Buccaneers
29 (-)	Titans	0.7874 (LW × 0.9932)	3-6	Lost by 31 vs Bears
30 (-)	Browns	0.7784 (LW × 0.9819)	2-7	Lost by 10 vs Ravens
31 (-)	Jaguars	0.7410 (LW × 0.9667)	1-7	Lost by 17 vs Lions
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.6887 (LW × 0.9953)	1-7	Lost by 18 @ Chargers

Comments:

• The League has to be relieved that the Steelers managed to pull out a win on Sunday. The last thing they need is another game decided on bad calls by the referees.

• Eli Manning and the Giants' passing game has been taking a lot of heat after their loss to the Steelers on Sunday. But Manning's passing numbers are only off a little bit from last year.

• The Falcons post yet another close win over a lesser opponent. The 8-0 record is impressive, but if I were a Falcons fan, I'd want to see them with more 2-score leads late in the 4th quarter.

• The Bears scored 50+ points for the first time since 1980 (they did make it to 48 a few times in that period, most recently 3 years ago).

• The Colts have clawed their way to a winning record. And, with some relatively easy games left on their schedule, they could actually make it to 9 wins.

NFL Q2 Strength of Schedule

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Vikings	0.9820	28	0.8642
2	Cardinals	0.9641	9	0.9219
3	Saints	0.9406	20	0.8774
4	Lions	0.9399	10	0.9211
5	Bears	0.9306	23	0.8739
6	49ers	0.9213	13	0.9135
7	Giants	0.9159	16	0.8873
8	Rams	0.9154	3	0.9484
9	Packers	0.9121	11	0.9170
10	Seahawks	0.9120	6	0.9293
11	Bills	0.9113	30	0.8585
12	Buccaneers	0.9096	27	0.8656
13	Ravens	0.9026	24	0.8732
14	Titans	0.9010	14	0.9087
15	Patriots	0.8975	18	0.8853
16	Redskins	0.8902	12	0.9167
17	Bengals	0.8898	29	0.8600
18	Browns	0.8887	25	0.8725
19	Eagles	0.8883	8	0.9252
20	Dolphins	0.8870	19	0.8827
21	Chiefs	0.8865	21	0.8763
22	Jaguars	0.8827	7	0.9252
23	Falcons	0.8822	31	0.8523
24	Cowboys	0.8818	1	0.9585
25	Colts	0.8795	22	0.8760
26	Texans	0.8717	15	0.8967
27	Chargers	0.8708	32	0.8497
28	Panthers	0.8705	2	0.9522
29	Jets	0.8625	4	0.9410
30	Steelers	0.8561	26	0.8699
31	Raiders	0.8504	17	0.8862
32	Broncos	0.8149	5	0.9340

Comments:

• These values do not include the result of the Thursday night Chiefs @ Chargers game.

• Like I said earlier, it doesn't get any easier for the Vikings. They've got the biggest swing from easiest played to hardest unplayed.

• The Packers have one of the 10-most difficult remaining schedules. But APR ranks it slightly easier than what they've already played, and the easiest of any team in the NFC North. If they can get healthy for the second half, they should have a chance to make a playoff run this year.

• The Falcons have one of the easier remaining schedules, but APR ranks it noticibly harder than what they've already played. I'll be surprised if the Falcons go unbeaten, but barring a pretty spectacular collapse, they're going to win the NFC South, and have an inside track for a bye week in the playoffs.

• The Bengals unplayed strength of schedule is ranked in the bottom half of the list, but it's still noticably harder than what they've played so far. And they still need 6 more wins to clinch a winning season.

• The Steelers haven't had the most impressive season so far this year, but with the rest of the AFC North struggling, they could leverage an easy schedule into the top spot in their division.

• The Broncos continue to have the easiest remaining schedule. Even with the Raiders one slot above them, I think the Broncos have a pretty clear shot to win the AFC West (assuming, of course, that Peyton Manning stays healthy).