NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Broncos	1.1215 (LW × 0.8948)	4-0	Won by 32 vs Eagles
2 (↑2)	Saints	1.1192 (LW × 1.0063)	4-0	Won by 21 vs Dolphins
3 (-)	Patriots	1.1146 (LW × 0.9727)	4-0	Won by 7 @ Falcons
4 (↑6)	Seahawks	1.0518 (LW × 1.0182)	4-0	Won by 3 @ Texans
5 (↓3)	Dolphins	1.0275 (LW × 0.8790)	3-1	Lost by 21 @ Saints
6 (↑13)	Titans	1.0135 (LW × 1.1351)	3-1	Won by 25 vs Jets
7 (↓1)	Ravens	1.0037 (LW × 0.9499)	2-2	Lost by 3 @ Bills
8 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.9999 (LW × 0.9655)	4-0	Won by 24 vs Giants
9 (↑11)	Lions	0.9791 (LW × 1.1152)	3-1	Won by 8 vs Bears
10 (↓2)	Colts	0.9734 (LW × 0.9391)	3-1	Won by 34 @ Jaguars
11 (↑1)	Bills	0.9542 (LW × 0.9985)	2-2	Won by 3 vs Ravens
12 (↓7)	Jets	0.9542 (LW × 0.8971)	2-2	Lost by 25 @ Titans
13 (↑10)	Chargers	0.9483 (LW × 1.1270)	2-2	Won by 9 vs Cowboys
14 (↑4)	Texans	0.9465 (LW × 1.0341)	2-2	Lost by 3 vs Seahawks
15 (↓8)	Falcons	0.9344 (LW × 0.8915)	1-3	Lost by 7 vs Patriots
16 (↓3)	Panthers	0.9343 (LW × 0.9835)	1-2	Bye
17 (↓2)	Bears	0.9140 (LW × 0.9882)	3-1	Lost by 8 @ Lions
18 (↓1)	Browns	0.9067 (LW × 0.9846)	2-2	Won by 11 vs Bengals
19 (↑5)	Cardinals	0.8834 (LW × 1.0546)	2-2	Won by 3 @ Buccaneers
20 (↑6)	Packers	0.8772 (LW × 1.0864)	1-2	Bye
21 (↓10)	Cowboys	0.8742 (LW × 0.8925)	2-2	Lost by 9 @ Chargers
22 (↓6)	Buccaneers	0.8592 (LW × 0.9313)	0-4	Lost by 3 vs Cardinals
23 (↓1)	Bengals	0.8553 (LW × 1.0101)	2-2	Lost by 11 @ Browns
24 (↑5)	49ers	0.8348 (LW × 1.0987)	2-2	Won by 24 @ Rams
25 (↑2)	Vikings	0.8318 (LW × 1.0495)	1-3	Won by 7 vs Steelers
26 (↑2)	Eagles	0.8206 (LW × 1.0782)	1-3	Lost by 32 @ Broncos
27 (↓13)	Raiders	0.7820 (LW × 0.8388)	1-3	Lost by 10 vs Redskins
28 (↑4)	Redskins	0.7754 (LW × 1.2293)	1-3	Won by 10 @ Raiders
29 (↓4)	Giants	0.7516 (LW × 0.9226)	0-4	Lost by 24 @ Chiefs
30 (↓9)	Rams	0.7259 (LW × 0.8564)	1-3	Lost by 24 vs 49ers
31 (-)	Steelers	0.7067 (LW × 1.0428)	0-4	Lost by 7 @ Vikings
32 (↓2)	Jaguars	0.6823 (LW × 0.9126)	0-4	Lost by 34 vs Colts

Comments:

• The good news for the 49ers is they managed to get a critical win, against a division opponent they couldn't beat last year. The bad news is, Colin Kaepernick's 167 yards passing is the best he's done since his week 1 romp over the Packers, and he still only has 140 rushing yards on the season.

  I just don't think Kaepernick does well in a standard drop-back scheme, and I find it puzzling that the 49ers seem to want to do that with him. I mean, this is pretty much what Alex Smith was doing for them. Only, you know, better.

• I was tempted to discount the Seahawks win on Sunday, since the Texans seem to have regressed from last year. But last year, Seahawks had trouble winning on the road even against the also-ran teams they faced, so this has to be regarded as at least something of a step forward for the Seahawks.

  There's still a lot of football to play before the playoffs, but the Bears, Lions, and Saints are the only NFC teams even within 1 game of the Seahawks right now. And if the Seahawks have improved over last year, it's tempting to pencil them in as the top seed in the NFC.

• Are the Bills another team with a surprisingly good defense this year? The Jets are the only team so far to score more than 23 points on them. They also have multiple turnovers in 3 games this year.

• The good news for the Chargers is that, thanks to a decent defensive effort on Sunday, they are (at least for a week) not on pace to break the single season record for yards allowed on defense. The bad news is, they're not that far off the pace, and still have a couple games against the Broncos, who currently have the league's best offense, both in points scored and yards gained.

  The Redskins', Eagles', and Vikings' defenses are also all on a pace to at least approach the record for yards allowed. If these teams maintain their current pace of defensive yards allowed, the one-time record setting mark the 81 Colts posted will drop to 5th place all time.

• One of the Falcons' problems is that they haven't been scoring a lot of second-half points. Sunday's game was the first time this season they've scored more than 10 points in the second half. Their opponents have not followed suit.

• I heard this on Football Night in America, but it bears repeating: the Steelers don't have any takeaways. None. Every other team has at least 2, and most have at least 4. It's not the only thing wrong with the Steelers right now, but it sure isn't helping, either.

NFL Week 4 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Eagles @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.6468	Broncos δ=27.1	Broncos -11
Redskins @ Raiders	Raiders ρ=1.4780	Raiders δ=19.4	Redskins -3
Colts @ Jaguars	Colts ρ=1.3863	Colts* δ=19.8	Colts -7½
Giants @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.2713	Chiefs δ=13.5	Chiefs -4½
Jets @ Titans	Jets ρ=1.1912	Jets* δ=22.7	Titans -3½
Steelers @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.1693	Vikings δ=6.1	Steelers -1½
Cowboys @ Chargers	Cowboys ρ=1.1641	Cowboys* δ=16.1	Cowboys -1
Seahawks @ Texans	Seahawks ρ=1.1286	Seahawks* δ=28.2	Seahawks -2½
49ers @ Rams	Rams ρ=1.1156	49ers* δ=3.9	49ers -3
Ravens @ Bills	Ravens* ρ=1.1057	Bills δ=9.2	Ravens -3½
Cardinals @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.1013	Buccaneers δ=16.1	Buccaneers -3
Patriots @ Falcons	Patriots ρ=1.0933	Patriots* δ=17.0	Falcons -2
Bengals @ Browns	Browns ρ=1.0875	Browns* δ=0.5	Bengals -4½
Bears @ Lions	Bears ρ=1.0536	Bears δ=5.4	Lions -2½
Dolphins @ Saints	Dolphins ρ=1.0510	Saints δ=0.7	Dolphins -6

Bye: Packers, Panthers

Comments:

• It feels like a lot of close games this week, and maybe a pretty ugly round of picks (after a very nice one last week).

• The Raiders have a win, and a close loss to what looks like could be a pretty good Colts team, while the the Redskins have 3 losses, including a couple blow-outs to what look like pretty weak opponents. So, from a purely final score point of view, it makes sense to pick the Raiders in this game. But, RG3 finally seems to be shaking off the rust, and Raiders QB Terrelle Prior could miss this game with a concussion, Maybe this is Matt Flynn's big chance, but I think the line is right here to pick the Redskins.

• The Steelers at least showed some signs of life Sunday night. And they'll be facing the weakest QB of their season so far. But the Steelers' rush defense has been in the bottom half of the league. This could be Adrian Peterson's first really big rushing game of the year.

• Last year, the Seahawks lost several road games against some pretty unremarkable opponents (Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals, and Rams). If it's not going to be more of the same for the Seahawks, this is the type of game they need to be able to win: on the road facing a decent opponent.

• The 49ers are also facing a must-win game, but for another reason. If they lose this week, they'll be 1-3, including 0-2 in their division. Even with 75% of the season left to play, that would give the Seahawks a huge lead in the divison.

• The Dolphins face another strong NFC South team, this time on the road. It will be a lot harder to discount them if they can slow down Drew Brees' offense enough to come out of New Orleans with a win.

• Update: apparently the Josh Freeman era is over for Tampa Bay. Freeman has never been an amazing QB, and after an 0-3 start featuring miserable QB stats, the Bucs are probably making the right decision.

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-2)

Right:

Bears @ Steelers
Cardinals @ Saints
Buccaneers @ Patriots
Giants @ Panthers
Jaguars @ Seahawks
Raiders @ Broncos

Wrong:

Browns @ Vikings

So the Browns traded away probably their best offensive player, had to start their backup quarterback, and were playing on the road. No problem, right? Well, the Browns' defense kept Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder in check(*), and the Vikings' defense wasn't able to keep the Browns from 3 long touchdown drives, including the game winner.

(*) To be sure, one of these things is a lot harder than the other.

Texans @ Ravens

For the third week in a row, the Texans fell behind a team they were favored to beat. But this time there was no late-game come back. Instead, the Ravens' defense found their groove (at least for this game), holding the Texans to 264 yards of total offense, and just 2 drives longer than 39 yards.

Split Picks: (APR 6-2, SRS 4-4, Line 4-4)

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

So, the good news for the Eagles is that their defense held the Chiefs to a season-low 26 points, in spite of 5 turnovers by the offense. The bad news, of course, is that the offense turned the ball over 5 times, which made it impossible for them to keep up with an opponent that scored 26 points.

Lions (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (Line)

Reggie Bush didn't play, but with Matt Stafford throwing for 385 yards and 2 touchdowns, it didn't matter. Robert Griffin III had his best game of the season so far (326 yards passing and 37 yards rushing), but it wasn't enough for the Redskins to get their first win.

Colts (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

Colin Kaepernick had just 20 yards rushing in this game. And when he plays as a more traditional drop-back passer (and not throwing on the Packers' bad pass defense), he's a pretty unremarkable quarterback. If they can't get Kaepernick back running like he was last year, the 49ers are going to be in deep trouble.

Chargers (SRS) @ Titans (APR, Line)

It's only three games into the season, but the Chargers are on pace to give up more than 7,500 yards on defense, which would easily surpass the record 7,042 yards the Saints gave up last year. That defense allowed Jake Locker (299 yards passing and 68 yards rushing, and no turnovers) one of the best games of his career. And thanks to the Titans' defense holding the Chargers to 17 points, that was enough to win the game.

Rams (APR) @ Cowboys (SRS, Line)

This game seems pretty simple: the Cowboys had a running game (193 yards), and the Rams did not (35 yards); the Cowboys were able to protect Tony Romo (1 sack), and the Rams were not able to protect Sam Bradford (6 sacks). As a result, the Cowboys were able to score 4 touchdowns, while the Rams punted 5 times, gave the ball over on downs 3 times, and only had 3 drives longer than 25 yards.

Bills (SRS) @ Jets (APR, Line)

This was a sloppy game, especially for the Jets, who had 2 interceptions and 168 penalty yards. But E.J. Manuel had a poor day passing (23 incompletions, and 8(!) sacks), and it just wasn't enough to ever pull ahead of the Jets.

Packers (SRS, Line) @ Bengals (APR)

There's certainly no shortage of things that went wrong for the Packers in this game. Turnovers, injuries, sloppy defense, an ineffective passing game, and questionable play calling all played their part. Maybe the biggest single thing was losing Clay Matthews in the first half. That defense loses a lot when he's not on the field.

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins (Line)

Maybe this is just another late-game swoon by the Falcons, who got outscored 17-3 at the end of the game. But the Dolphins are now 3-0, including a couple wins over playoff teams from last year. It could be that second year HC Joe Philbin is making a real difference for Miami.

Totals

A real nice week for APR this time, thanks in part to wins by 3 road underdogs.

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	12	-	4			22	-	10		68.8%
SRS	10	-	6			20	-	12		62.5%
Line	10	-	6			22	-	10		68.8%

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Broncos	1.2533 (LW × 1.0592)	3-0	Won by 16 vs Raiders
2 (↑5)	Dolphins	1.1689 (LW × 1.0935)	3-0	Won by 4 vs Falcons
3 (↑3)	Patriots	1.1458 (LW × 1.0616)	3-0	Won by 20 vs Buccaneers
4 (↓2)	Saints	1.1122 (LW × 0.9475)	3-0	Won by 24 vs Cardinals
5 (↑4)	Jets	1.0637 (LW × 1.0121)	2-1	Won by 7 vs Bills
6 (↑13)	Ravens	1.0566 (LW × 1.1540)	2-1	Won by 21 vs Texans
7 (↓3)	Falcons	1.0481 (LW × 0.9287)	1-2	Lost by 4 @ Dolphins
8 (↑17)	Colts	1.0365 (LW × 1.1989)	2-1	Won by 20 @ 49ers
9 (↑1)	Chiefs	1.0356 (LW × 1.0164)	3-0	Won by 10 @ Eagles
10 (↓7)	Seahawks	1.0331 (LW × 0.8954)	3-0	Won by 28 vs Jaguars
11 (↑9)	Cowboys	0.9796 (LW × 1.0715)	2-1	Won by 24 vs Rams
12 (↑2)	Bills	0.9557 (LW × 0.9744)	1-2	Lost by 7 @ Jets
13 (↑8)	Panthers	0.9500 (LW × 1.0583)	1-2	Won by 38 vs Giants
14 (↑10)	Raiders	0.9322 (LW × 1.0656)	1-2	Lost by 16 @ Broncos
15 (↑1)	Bears	0.9249 (LW × 0.9627)	3-0	Won by 17 @ Steelers
16 (↓1)	Buccaneers	0.9226 (LW × 0.9529)	0-3	Lost by 20 @ Patriots
17 (↑13)	Browns	0.9209 (LW × 1.2018)	1-2	Won by 4 @ Vikings
18 (↓13)	Texans	0.9153 (LW × 0.8131)	2-1	Lost by 21 @ Ravens
19 (↓11)	Titans	0.8929 (LW × 0.8466)	2-1	Won by 3 vs Chargers
20 (↓8)	Lions	0.8779 (LW × 0.8775)	2-1	Won by 7 @ Redskins
21 (↓10)	Rams	0.8476 (LW × 0.8329)	1-2	Lost by 24 @ Cowboys
22 (↓5)	Bengals	0.8468 (LW × 0.9034)	2-1	Won by 4 vs Packers
23 (↓5)	Chargers	0.8415 (LW × 0.9033)	1-2	Lost by 3 @ Titans
24 (↓11)	Cardinals	0.8377 (LW × 0.8378)	1-2	Lost by 24 @ Saints
25 (↑1)	Giants	0.8146 (LW × 0.9614)	0-3	Lost by 38 @ Panthers
26 (↓4)	Packers	0.8074 (LW × 0.9110)	1-2	Lost by 4 @ Bengals
27 (↓4)	Vikings	0.7925 (LW × 0.8972)	0-3	Lost by 4 vs Browns
28 (-)	Eagles	0.7610 (LW × 0.9300)	1-2	Lost by 10 vs Chiefs
29 (↓2)	49ers	0.7597 (LW × 0.9136)	1-2	Lost by 20 vs Colts
30 (↑1)	Jaguars	0.7477 (LW × 1.1177)	0-3	Lost by 28 @ Seahawks
31 (↓2)	Steelers	0.6777 (LW × 0.8538)	0-3	Lost by 17 vs Bears
32 (-)	Redskins	0.6307 (LW × 0.9867)	0-3	Lost by 7 vs Lions

Comments:

• Congratulations to the Chiefs on being the first team to exceed their Pythagorean win projection. How many wins to the Chiefs need to get to ensure Andy Reid is coach of the year? This team is already obviously much, much better than they were last year.

• The Broncos have taken advantage of at least a couple pretty bad opponents in the Giants and Raiders, but looking at the other 3-0 teams, I don't see any that really seem like they deserve to be higher than the Broncos right now.

• Let's play "Coach the Green Bay Packers". You're in a critical late-game situation, 4th and inches with a 3-point lead. A conversion will help you drain the clock, and get you, at worst, to a closer field goal attempt. Do you A) use your experienced, veteran, best-in-the-league quarterback to sneak the ball for an almost certain conversion, or B) hand the ball off to your rookie running back, who is getting his first regular season on-the-field experience? So, yeah. I'll have more to say about this game in the pick results, but that playcall was a real head-scratcher.

• So, maybe the Packers and 49ers are not so underrated after all? At least the Packer losses have been close.

• In related news, it's looking like there could be a lot of churn in the NFC side of the playoff field this season. The Falcons, 49ers, Packers, Redskins, and Vikings are a combined 3-12. If the Seahawks get the top seed, with their home field advantage, I don't think there's a team in the NFC that could beat them in Seattle in the playoffs.

• Well, the Patriots (at least for a week) have discovered an offense, thanks in part to LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, and Stevan Ridley combining for 151 rushing yards. Maybe not the most impressive opponent, but a 20-point win is easily more than the Pats could do against the Bills or Jets.

• So, yeah, the Giants are pretty bad. Eli Manning is already more than halfway to matching his interception total from last year, and has a season passer rating (70.5) that is (so far) second-lowest of his career. The defense hasn't been any help, either. They have given up at least 36 points in every game so far, something they didn't do once last year. The Giants are 2-80 all time when they allow at least 36 points.

  If they lose to the Chiefs on Sunday, which seems very likely, they'll be 0-4 for the first time since the strike season 1987, when an 0-3 strech with the replacement players gave them an 0-5 start. You have to go back 1976 to find the Giants' last start worse than 0-5.

NFL Week 3 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Jaguars @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.7246	Seahawks δ=38.8	Seahawks -19½
Lions @ Redskins	Lions ρ=1.5650	Lions* δ=21.5	Redskins -1
Raiders @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.3525	Broncos δ=23.7	Broncos -14½
Chiefs @ Eagles	Chiefs ρ=1.2451	Chiefs δ=16.6	Eagles -3
Texans @ Ravens	Texans ρ=1.2294	Texans* δ=4.8	Texans -2½
Bears @ Steelers	Bears ρ=1.2102	Bears δ=9.2	Bears -2½
Cardinals @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.1740	Saints δ=7.9	Saints -7½
Browns @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.1528	Vikings δ=4.5	Vikings -5½
Chargers @ Titans	Titans ρ=1.1322	Chargers δ=0.1	Titans -3
Buccaneers @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1149	Patriots δ=3.3	Patriots -9
Rams @ Cowboys	Rams ρ=1.1132	Cowboys δ=5.5	Cowboys -3½
Bills @ Jets	Jets ρ=1.0716	Bills δ=4.0	Jets -1½
Giants @ Panthers	Panthers ρ=1.0593	Panthers δ=6.2	Panthers -1
Packers @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.0576	Packers* δ=1.5	Packers -2½
Falcons @ Dolphins	Falcons ρ=1.0557	Falcons δ=0.8	Dolphins -1
Colts @ 49ers	Colts ρ=1.0396	Colts δ=3.0	49ers -10

Comments:

• Wow, Jaguars @ Seahawks has the potential to be a specacular beat-down. But the Seahawks should be careful. Trap games are a real thing, and it's possible the Jags are better than their first two outings would indicate.

• The algorithms both like the Lions a lot more than the Redskins. Of course, the Redskins are facing a potential 0-3 start, so maybe the Line is factoring in a certain level of desperation for them. But I feel like this is a game the Lions can win, especially if Reggie Bush is healthy and productive.

• I also like the pick of the Chiefs over the Eagles. I think the Chiefs are probably at least as good as the Chargers right now, and will join them in coming out of Philadelphia with a win.

• The Patriots have yet another big line over what seems to be a lesser opponent. But the Buccaneers are also facing an 0-3 start, and probably won't be pushovers. I don't think the Bucs can win, especially in Foxborough, but I'm also not so sure the Pats can come away with a double-digit margin of victory, either.

• And speaking of 0-3 starts, the Steelers have looked pretty bad so far. They haven't had a losing season since 2003, but if they don't get things turned around quick... 8 wins is gonna seem like a long ways away.

• Interesting that the Line is taking the Dolphins over the Falcons this week. Personally, I'm not so confident that the Fins can handle a quality opponent just yet, and their home stadium hasn't been much of an advantage for them lately.

• I think APR has the Packers and 49ers really underrated so far, so that's why it picked their respective opponents this week. Presumably things will be a little more sorted out in the week 3 rankings.

NFL Week 2 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-2)

Right:

Saints @ Buccaneers
Broncos @ Giants
Jets @ Patriots
Vikings @ Bears
Redskins @ Packers
Jaguars @ Raiders
Steelers @ Bengals

Wrong:

Chargers @ Eagles

The Eagles' offense put up some big numbers again this week: 422 yards passing, 89 yards rushing, and 3 touchdowns. The problem is, the Eagles' defense allowed some big numbers too: 413 yards passing, 126 yards rushing, and 3 touchdowns. Chip Kelly's schemes are going to be in trouble as long as his defense keeps allowing 27+ points every game.

Lions @ Cardinals

After a tough first half, the Cardinals' defense managed to shut out the Lions's offense in the second half (the Lions' defense did get a pick 6 in the third quarter on yet another ill-advised throw by Carson Palmer). This game was the prototype recipe for a Cardinals win: good on defense, good on special teams (including a blocked field goal attempt), and enough effectiveness on offense to keep their head above water.

Split Picks: (APR 3-4, SRS 3-4, Line 5-2)

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

Rams (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

APR and SRS both picked the Rams because they had a win last week, and the Falcons did not. That said, it's interesting to note that, in spite of the fact that the Falcons sprinted out to a 24-3 halftime lead, the Rams did manage to close by the end of the game, and came within one defensive stop of having a chance to drive for a tying score in the closing minutes.

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)

APR and SRS picked the Browns here because they didn't get beat as bad as the Ravens in week 1. But the Browns' defense showed some signs of life again this week, holding the Ravens scoreless until late in the 3rd quarter, and holding them to a 1-point lead until the 4th. If the Browns could ever get their offense going, they... well, they might be able to win a game like this one, anyway.

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)

For the second week in a row, the Texans needed to come back on a team they were favored to beat. Besides trouble for the Texans, this game may also indicate that the Titans defense could have some real strength to it. It should be noted that Jake Locker has had a couple of unremarkable outings so far (he's still below 300 total yards passing for the season), so the Titans are probably still a ways from challenging for the division title (but 7 or 8 wins are probably not out of reach).

49ers (SRS) @ Seahawks (APR, Line)

The algorithms didn't like the Seahawks' unremarkable win last week. It was somewhat interesting to rewatch Football Night In America after the game, and hear everyone gush about what a threat Anquan Boldin was going to be (he had 1 catch for 7 yards in this game; in related news, the Packers' pass defense is not very good).

Cowboys (APR) @ Chiefs (SRS, Line)

Perhaps the most telling sequence of this game came late in the 4th quarter, after the Cowboys had kicked a field goal to pull within 1 point of the Chiefs. With 3:48 left in the game, and all 3 timeouts, the Cowboys kicked off deep. And the Chiefs proceeded to grind out the clock. They weren't forced to punt until there was just 0:29 on the game clock. The Cowboys are going to have a lot of trouble this season if their defense can't get stops when they absolutely need them.

Panthers (Line) @ Bills (APR, SRS)

Last year, the Panthers were in a lot of their games, but utlimately couldn't close the deal. This year, they've had two fourth-quarter leads, and twice they've watched their opponent overcome that lead to win the game. If Ron Rivera can't fix this real soon, the Panthers should start thinking about who they want to be their new head coach next year.

Totals

Not bad, considering how wonky the week 1 power rankings seemed.

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	10	-	6			10	-	6		62.5%
SRS	10	-	6			10	-	6		62.5%
Line	12	-	4			12	-	4		75%

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑15)	Broncos	1.1832 (LW × 1.1005)	2-0	Won by 18 @ Giants
2 (↑6)	Saints	1.1739 (LW × 1.0900)	2-0	Won by 2 @ Buccaneers
3 (↑1)	Seahawks	1.1538 (LW × 1.0655)	2-0	Won by 26 vs 49ers
4 (↑13)	Falcons	1.1286 (LW × 1.1643)	1-1	Won by 7 vs Rams
5 (↓1)	Texans	1.1257 (LW × 1.0396)	2-0	Won by 6 vs Titans
6 (↓2)	Patriots	1.0793 (LW × 0.9968)	2-0	Won by 3 vs Jets
7 (↓6)	Dolphins	1.0690 (LW × 0.9338)	2-0	Won by 4 @ Colts
8 (↓6)	Titans	1.0547 (LW × 0.9213)	1-1	Lost by 6 @ Texans
9 (↓1)	Jets	1.0510 (LW × 0.9759)	1-1	Lost by 3 @ Patriots
10 (↑5)	Chiefs	1.0189 (LW × 0.9466)	2-0	Won by 1 vs Cowboys
11 (↓3)	Rams	1.0177 (LW × 0.9449)	1-1	Lost by 7 @ Falcons
12 (↓9)	Lions	1.0004 (LW × 0.8786)	1-1	Lost by 4 @ Cardinals
13 (↑4)	Cardinals	0.9999 (LW × 1.0316)	1-1	Won by 4 vs Lions
14 (↑11)	Bills	0.9808 (LW × 1.2454)	1-1	Won by 1 vs Panthers
15 (↑2)	Buccaneers	0.9681 (LW × 0.9988)	0-2	Lost by 2 vs Saints
16 (↓8)	Bears	0.9607 (LW × 0.8920)	2-0	Won by 1 vs Vikings
17 (-)	Bengals	0.9374 (LW × 0.9671)	1-1	Won by 10 vs Steelers
18 (↑7)	Chargers	0.9315 (LW × 1.1828)	1-1	Won by 3 @ Eagles
19 (↑12)	Ravens	0.9156 (LW × 1.4862)	1-1	Won by 8 vs Browns
20 (↓12)	Cowboys	0.9142 (LW × 0.8489)	1-1	Lost by 1 @ Chiefs
21 (↑4)	Panthers	0.8977 (LW × 1.1398)	0-2	Lost by 1 @ Bills
22 (↓5)	Packers	0.8863 (LW × 0.9144)	1-1	Won by 18 vs Redskins
23 (↑1)	Vikings	0.8833 (LW × 1.0751)	0-2	Lost by 1 @ Bears
24 (↓7)	Raiders	0.8749 (LW × 0.9026)	1-1	Won by 10 vs Jaguars
25 (↓17)	Colts	0.8645 (LW × 0.8027)	1-1	Lost by 4 vs Dolphins
26 (↓9)	Giants	0.8474 (LW × 0.8742)	0-2	Lost by 18 vs Broncos
27 (↓19)	49ers	0.8316 (LW × 0.7722)	1-1	Lost by 26 @ Seahawks
28 (↓24)	Eagles	0.8183 (LW × 0.7557)	1-1	Lost by 3 vs Chargers
29 (-)	Steelers	0.7938 (LW × 1.1820)	0-2	Lost by 10 @ Bengals
30 (-)	Browns	0.7662 (LW × 1.1548)	0-2	Lost by 8 @ Ravens
31 (↑1)	Jaguars	0.6690 (LW × 1.3536)	0-2	Lost by 10 @ Raiders
32 (↓7)	Redskins	0.6392 (LW × 0.8117)	0-2	Lost by 18 @ Packers

Comments:

• These rankings look a lot more reasonable than last week, although I won't guarantee next week the Jets are going to stay in the top 10, or the Rams near it.

• The Patriots are in "a win is a win" mode, but one thing I've learned from doing this is, multiple close wins against weak opponents are not the sign of a strong team. The Pats may(*) have a pretty easy path to another AFC East title, but they will need to play a lot better if they don't want to be 1-and-done come playoff time.

• (*) Although if the Dolphins can continue the momentum they've established with a 2-0 start, the Pats path to another division title may not be so easy.

• It's only two games into the season, but so far the Seahawks are looking a lot like they were last year: very, very tough at home, and very ordinary on the road. And with the 49ers in their division, they're probably gonna have to win more than 3 road games if they don't want to be a wildcard team in the playoffs again.

• With a combined 2-6 record and no wins outside the division, the NFC East has to be an early favorite for worst division in the league, perhaps tied with the AFC North, which is in the same state.

• Through the first two games, RG3 has 25 yards rushing on 9 carries. The Redskins' defense was never anything special, and with the offense faltering, they're gonna have a hard time beating anybody.

• The Jaguars, with just 11 points scored through 2 games, are already starting to look like their 2014 will start a lot like 2013: a new head coach and an early draft pick. Assuming Blaine Gabbert doesn't turn into something resembling a productive NFL quarterback in the final 14 games of the season, they should probably use their first draft pick on that position.

NFL Week 2 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Jaguars @ Raiders	Raiders ρ=1.9612	Raiders δ=22.0	Raiders -5½
Steelers @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.4433	Bengals δ=4.0	Bengals -6½
Chargers @ Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.3750	Eagles δ=9.0	Eagles -7½
Vikings @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.3107	Bears δ=13.0	Bears -6½
Redskins @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.2308	Packers δ=0.0	Packers -8
Lions @ Cardinals	Lions ρ=1.1747	Lions δ=13.0	Lions -2
Rams @ Falcons	Rams ρ=1.1111	Rams δ=9.0	Falcons -7
Saints @ Buccaneers	Saints ρ=1.1111	Saints δ=7.0	Saints -3
Broncos @ Giants	Broncos ρ=1.1093	Broncos δ=27.0	Broncos -4½
Browns @ Ravens	Browns ρ=1.0770	Browns δ=9.0	Ravens -6½
Dolphins @ Colts	Dolphins ρ=1.0630	Dolphins δ=9.0	Colts -3
Titans @ Texans	Titans ρ=1.0572	Titans δ=4.0	Texans -9½
Jets @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0054	Patriots δ=1.0	Patriots -12
49ers @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0054	49ers δ=1.0	Seahawks -2½
Cowboys @ Chiefs	Cowboys ρ=1.0005	Chiefs δ=21.0	Chiefs -2½
Panthers @ Bills	Bills ρ=1.0000	Bills δ=3.0	Panthers -3

Comments:

• I'm not a fan of ties, so I've made a relatively small modification to game picks, In the event that two teams have the same power value, the home team is picked. This change affects Redskins @ Packers (SRS) and Panthers @ Bills (APR).

• I'm a little surprised the Line is favoring the Chiefs to beat the Cowboys. The Chiefs did have a pretty impressive first outing last Sunday. But, well, that was the Jaguars. A solid win over the Cowboys will be more impressive.

• The Patriots are favored by another big line. But I wonder how much their hurt by all the guys they're missing (Welker, Woodhead, Gronkowsky, and of course Hernandez). That's a major chunk of their offense, and if the Jets can continue to play solid defense, they could give the Patriots another tough game.

• If the Titans really do have a good defense this year, they're going to have a real solid chance to prove it in Houston this week.

• Some personal stuff going on today, so I'm going to let my comments section is be a bit lighter this time around.

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-3)

Right:

Patriots @ Bills
Seahawsk @ Panthers
Texans @ Chargers
Ravens @ Broncos
Raiders @ Colts
Cardinals @ Rams
Packers @ 49ers
Bengals @ Bears

Wrong:

Titans @ Steelers

Either the Titans have put together a really tough shut-down defense, or the Steelers offense is really, really, broken. After their opening drive, the Steelers didn't cross midfield until garbage time. The Titans' offense didn't look like much either, but they managed to score 16 points, which was enough to put this game away for them.

Buccaneers @ Jets

Well, the first part of this is that Jets' defense did a pretty good job, holding the Bucs to just 17 points scored. The second part is that that rookie QB Geno Smith had a pretty decent first outing: 24/38 for 256 yards, a touchdown and a pick. Which (along with help from a bone-headed mistake by the Bucs defense) meant the Jets had a chance to kick a game-winning field goal at the end of the game, and they did.

Eagles @ Redskins

The Redskins just didn't seem to be ready for this game. They didn't score their first points on offense until the end of the 3rd quarter, and in the meantime, the Eagles had put 33 points on the scoreboard. The Redskins managed to show enough life in the 4th quarter to put a scare into the Eagles, but they ran out of time before they could complete what would've been a pretty impressive comeback.

Split Picks: (Pythag 1-4, Line 4-1)

Chiefs (Line) @ Jaguars (Pythag)

This is another game not to read too much into. But it's worth noting the Chiefs didn't make it to 28 points once last year, or hold an opponent to fewer than 9 points. Perhaps there is at least a little reason for Chiefs fans to permit themselves some optimism this year.

Dolphins (Pythag) @ Browns (Line)

To be fair to the Browns, their defense did keep this game close for a long while. But three early interceptions meant they only had a 1-point lead at halftime, and in the end, their defense isn't nearly good enough to secure a win with just 10 points scored.

Falcons (Pythag) @ Saints (Line)

I don't want to read too much into just one game, but it does look like the Saints defense is much improved over last year's squad. Certainly in this game, they played a key difference, holding the Falcons to just 17 points, and making a game-winning goal line stand in the closing seconds. Meanwhile, the Falcons are now 3-9 at the Saints since realignment. And one of those wins came in 2005, when the game was played at the Alamo Dome due to damage from Katrina.

Vikings (Pythag) @ Lions (Line)

A very bad first game for the Vikings. Other than that 78 yard touchdown run, Adrian Peterson had 15 yards on 17 carries. Christian Ponder threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. Instead, it was the Lions with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell finding out how much easier it is to win with a solid running game.

Giants (Pythag) @ Cowboys (Line)

Neither one of these teams looked very impressive Sunday night, but the Giants were in particularly bad form. You just can't turn the ball over 6 times (especially on the road), and have much chance to win.

Totals

	R	W
Pythagorean	9	7
Line	12	4

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1	Dolphins	1.1448	1-0	Won by 13 @ Browns
2	Titans	1.1447	1-0	Won by 7 @ Steelers
3	Lions	1.1386	1-0	Won by 10 vs Vikings
T 4	Patriots	1.0828	1-0	Won by 2 @ Bills
T 4	Eagles	1.0828	1-0	Won by 6 @ Redskins
T 4	Seahawks	1.0828	1-0	Won by 5 @ Panthers
T 4	Texans	1.0828	1-0	Won by 3 @ Chargers
T 8	Saints	1.0770	1-0	Won by 6 vs Falcons
T 8	49ers	1.0770	1-0	Won by 6 vs Packers
T 8	Bears	1.0770	1-0	Won by 3 vs Bengals
T 8	Jets	1.0770	1-0	Won by 1 vs Buccaneers
T 8	Colts	1.0770	1-0	Won by 4 vs Raiders
T 8	Rams	1.0770	1-0	Won by 3 vs Cardinals
T 8	Cowboys	1.0770	1-0	Won by 5 vs Giants
15	Chiefs	1.0764	1-0	Won by 26 @ Jaguars
16	Broncos	1.0752	1-0	Won by 22 vs Ravens
T17	Cardinals	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 3 @ Rams
T17	Buccaneers	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 1 @ Jets
T17	Falcons	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 6 @ Saints
T17	Giants	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 5 @ Cowboys
T17	Packers	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 6 @ 49ers
T17	Raiders	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 4 @ Colts
T17	Bengals	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 3 @ Bears
24	Vikings	0.8217	0-1	Lost by 10 @ Lions
T25	Chargers	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 3 vs Texans
T25	Bills	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 2 vs Patriots
T25	Panthers	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 5 vs Seahawks
T25	Redskins	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 6 vs Eagles
29	Steelers	0.6716	0-1	Lost by 7 vs Titans
30	Browns	0.6635	0-1	Lost by 13 vs Dolphins
31	Ravens	0.6161	0-1	Lost by 22 @ Broncos
32	Jaguars	0.4942	0-1	Lost by 26 vs Chiefs

Comments:

• As usual, don't read too much into these rankings. The Dolphins, Titans, and Lions have a lot of work to do to prove they deserve a spot in the top 5, and it'll be a major shock if the Ravens spend much time in the bottom 5.

• For the second season in a row, the Chargers have let a 3-score, second half lead slip away at home on Monday Night Football. That's gotta hurt.

• Last year Two years ago (jeeze, time flys!), the Bills' defense won them a few games before collapsing down the stretch. In this game, they frustrated the normally high-powered Patriots for much of the game, who needed a last-second field goal for their game-winning margin.

• The Panthers' defense looked pretty good for much of the game, too, but with just 7 points on the board, all it took was one busted play that let the Seahawks score a long touchdown, and that gave the Seahawks the game.

• Other than a horrendous interception thrown by Carson Palmer, the Cardinals' offense looked better than anything they did last year. But their defense really wasn't the same either, and the offense just wasn't able to keep up with the 27 points the Rams put on the board.

• The Packers actually looked as good against the 49ers as they did in either of their meetings last season. Ultimately, their lack of pass defense gave Colin Kaepernick 412 yards passing, which gave the 49ers the lead for most of the game, including when time expired.

NFL Week 1 Picks

Hey, everybody, it's time for another season of football! As usual for week 1, the picks are based on each team's Pythagorean Projection values. Picks using APR and SRS will start up in week 2.

Game	Pythag (std)	Pythag (R/H)		Line
Patriots @ Bills	Patriots (0.4100)	Patriots (0.3120)		Patriots -7½
Eagles @ Redskins	Redskins (0.3176)	Redskins (0.3983)		Redskins -3½
Seahawks @ Panthers	Seahawks (0.2840)	Seahawks (0.1979)		Seahawks -3
Titans @ Steelers	Steelers (0.2392)	Steelers (0.4113)		Steelers -7
Ravens @ Broncos	Broncos (0.1843)	Broncos (0.4154)		Broncos -9
Raiders @ Colts	Colts (0.1842)	Colts (0.4409)		Colts -9½
Falcons @ Saints	Falcons (0.1808)	Falcons (0.0740)		Saints -3
Giants @ Cowboys	Giants (0.1645)	Cowboys (0.0244)	*	Cowboys -3
Buccaneers @ Jets	Buccaneers (0.1570)	Buccaneers (0.1094)		Buccaneers -3
Vikings @ Lions	Vikings (0.1447)	Vikings (0.0190)		Lions -4½
Texans @ Chargers	Texans (0.1322)	Texans (0.1266)		Texans -3½
Cardinals @ Rams	Rams (0.1104)	Rams (0.1971)		Rams -5
Packers @ 49ers	49ers (0.0625)	49ers (0.2857)		49ers -4½
Dolphins @ Browns	Dolphins (0.0584)	Browns (0.1912)	*	Browns -1
Bengals @ Bears	Bears (0.0556)	Bears (0.0468)		Bears -3
Chiefs @ Jaguars	Jaguars (0.0519)	Jaguars (0.0266)		Chiefs -3½

Comments:

• The Browns are favored to win?! There was no line for this game for quite a while. I don't really know why, and I'm not sure I belive it yet. I will check on this one later in the week. Update: well, it's Saturday afternoon, and the sports books (the ones that aren't saying pick 'em, anyway) are saying Browns -1½. So Browns it is.

• The Bills' quarterback woes continue. Erstwhile starter Ryan Fitzpatrick has gone to the Titans, which means the Bills have a choice between their injured first-round pick E.J. Manuel and undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel. The Pats should easily cover 7½ points, unless maybe Tom Brady throws 4 interceptions again. And maybe, even then.

• This is one of those can't-let-it-slip-away road games that I was talking about for the Seahawks. They're probably not going to have an easier road opponent all season.

• Man, Mile High is gonna be rocking Thursday night. The Broncos don't have any reason to show mercy, so this game has the potential to get very, very ugly for the Ravens.

• I'm a little surprised the Line is favoring the Lions over the Vikings. The Vikings swept this series last year, and with the addition of Greg Jennings to help Ponder's passing game, they could be even more of a threat this year. It won't be good news for the Vikings' playoff hopes if they lose this game.

• Last year, the Cardinals defense and special teams kept them in a lot of games, including last year's Cardinals @ Rams match-up. If the defense and special teams can take up where they left off, and if Carson Palmer can rise at least to the level of game manager, this is a game the Cardinals could win. A couple big "ifs", so this game will likely be an early indication of how the Cardinals' season will go.

• The way the Packers' last visit to the 49ers went, I think it'll be fairly impressive if the Packers are within one score at the end of the game.

  The Packers had a profoundly unimpressive preseason, largely due to their awful slate of backup quarterbacks. But the defense didn't look that great either, and just like in their playoff matchup last January, the Packers' defense will have to step up for them to have a chance to win.