Monday, February 2, 2015

NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Patriots (SRS, Line) vs. Seahawks (APR)
As you know if you read my game picks post, I was leaning towards the Patriots winning this game. But the Seahawks stayed in this, and came a lot closer to winning than I really expected.
Especially with close games like this that are back and forth in the 4th quarter and come down to the last seconds of the game, I feel like I'm picking nits to talk about why one team won and the other lost, but there are a couple things worth looking at.
As mentioned in the power rankings comments, the Seahawks had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. If their defense gets one more stop, (or even just holds once for a field goal), they win. Instead they allowed the Patriots two long drives ending with touchdowns that erased their 10 point lead, and left them in a 4 point hole. Giving up two touchdowns was especially painful, because it meant their final drive was touchdown or bust.
The Seahawks offense established that 10 point lead with 5 minutes to play in the third quarter, and they had the ball three times before that final drive. If they score one more touchdown, they win. Instead, they punted three times, and had their final drive end with a turnover.
In the end, I think one of the big problems for the Seahawks was their offense was just too boom-or-bust, too dependent on the big play. In a situation like they had at the end of this game, where they needed a more methodical approach using high percentage plays, they just didn't seem to know how to do it, and it ended up costing them a win.

That's it for the regularly scheduled posts for the 2014 season. I'm planning to do the usual Pythagorean wrap up post, and then that will likely be it until July. Have a good offseason!

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 0-1 7-463.6%
SRS 1-0 9-281.8%
Line 1-0 9-281.8%

Sunday, February 1, 2015

NFL Super Bowl Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Seahawks1.0996
(LW × 0.9842)
14-5Lost by 4
vs Patriots
2 (-)Patriots1.0942
(LW × 1.0133)
15-4Won by 4
@ Seahawks
3 (-)Packers1.0207
(LW × 0.9985)
13-5Bye
4 (↑1)Bills0.9860
(LW × 1.0013)
9-7Bye
5 (↓1)Cowboys0.9837
(LW × 0.9977)
13-5Bye
6 (-)Colts0.9690
(LW × 1.0009)
13-6Bye
7 (-)Broncos0.9674
(LW × 0.9993)
12-5Bye
8 (-)Ravens0.9649
(LW × 1.0008)
11-7Bye
9 (-)Steelers0.9592
(LW × 0.9992)
11-6Bye
10 (-)Chiefs0.9541
(LW × 0.9968)
9-7Bye
11 (-)Eagles0.9343
(LW × 0.9957)
10-6Bye
12 (-)Lions0.9156
(LW × 0.9999)
11-6Bye
13 (-)Texans0.9042
(LW × 0.9992)
9-7Bye
14 (-)Bengals0.8989
(LW × 0.9993)
10-6-1Bye
15 (-)Cardinals0.8931
(LW × 0.9937)
11-6Bye
16 (-)Dolphins0.8870
(LW × 1.0018)
8-8Bye
17 (-)Rams0.8711
(LW × 0.9945)
6-10Bye
18 (↑1)Chargers0.8701
(LW × 0.9993)
9-7Bye
19 (↓1)Panthers0.8683
(LW × 0.9957)
8-9-1Bye
20 (-)Vikings0.8590
(LW × 0.9994)
7-9Bye
21 (-)Jets0.8501
(LW × 1.0021)
4-12Bye
22 (-)Falcons0.8438
(LW × 0.9976)
6-10Bye
23 (-)49ers0.8384
(LW × 0.9938)
8-8Bye
24 (-)Giants0.8319
(LW × 0.9959)
6-10Bye
25 (-)Saints0.8161
(LW × 0.9980)
7-9Bye
26 (-)Browns0.8113
(LW × 0.9990)
7-9Bye
27 (-)Raiders0.8067
(LW × 0.9967)
3-13Bye
28 (-)Bears0.7755
(LW × 0.9998)
5-11Bye
29 (-)Jaguars0.7599
(LW × 0.9992)
3-13Bye
30 (-)Buccaneers0.7473
(LW × 0.9984)
2-14Bye
31 (-)Washington0.7381
(LW × 0.9968)
4-12Bye
32 (-)Titans0.6819
(LW × 0.9990)
2-14Bye

Comments:

  • Patriots gain in power, but not quite enough to overtake the Seahawks for first place. I'm sure they'll get over it.

  • This was only the third Super Bowl to be tied at halftime (along with SB XXIII 49ers vs. Bengals and SB XXXIX Eagles vs. Patriots).

  • The 2014 Patriots also join the 2007 Giants and the 2008 Steelers as the only teams to win the Super Bowl after trailing in the 4th quarter.

  • The Seahawks lose in possibly the most painful way possible, blowing a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter, and then throwing a game sealing interception on 2nd and goal at the 1 with seconds left to play.

  • A lot of people have already said this, but especially with a timeout left, handing off to Lynch is a pretty obvious play call there. Or if you're gonna pass, throw a fade off play action or something. Throwing over the middle like that seems like the worst possible decision there.

  • As a football fan, I think this was maybe the most satifying Super Bowl since the Saints beat the Colts in SB XLI (of course I will recuse myself from judging SB XLV).