tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63907794089890257102024-03-13T09:48:12.467-07:00FSPIFinal Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comBlogger703125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-38025745396630908932015-07-16T09:56:00.000-07:002015-07-16T09:56:22.394-07:00So long and thanks for all the fish...<p>As you might guess from the title of this post, I've decided to call it a blog with FSPI. My interest in continuing FSPI has been waning for a while now, and I have other priorities going on I'd rather spend the time on. So I've decided not to continue on into the 2015 season.</p>
<p>Anyway, for anyone still out there, thanks for reading, hopefully you got some enjoyment and insight from what I wrote.</p>
<p>And, go Pack go!</p>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-59061266615483768262015-03-26T11:14:00.001-07:002015-03-26T11:14:48.633-07:00NFL Wrapup: Pythagorian Projection vs. Reality<div class='fspi'>
<p>As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a
positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win
value, a negative difference means they fell short.</p>
<p>Teams are sorted by the magnitude (absolute value) of the
difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near
the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the
bottom.</p>
This is a follow-up
to <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2014/07/pythagorean-projection-2013-2014.html'>a
post from last
summer</a>. See <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2009/07/nfl-pythagorean-projection-i-1994-2008.html'>this
post</a> for background details.</p>
<table class='std-data' id='fspi-2014-pythag-vs-reality'>
<tr><th>Team<th class='sortable'>Actual
<th class='sortable'>Proj.
<th class='sortable'>Diff.
<th>Note</tr>
<tr class='or'>
<td>Jaguars<td> 3<td> 3.1<td> -0.1<td>
<tr class='er'>
<td>Falcons<td> 6<td> 5.9<td> 0.1<td>
<tr class='or'>
<td>Chargers<td> 9<td> 9.2<td> -0.2<td>
<tr class='er'>
<td>Broncos<td> 12<td> 11.7<td> 0.3<td>
<tr class='or'>
<td>Giants<td> 6<td> 5.6<td> 0.4<td>
<tr class='er'>
<td>Dolphins<td> 8<td> 7.5<td> 0.5<td>
<tr class='or'>
<td>Eagles<td> 10<td> 9.4<td> 0.6<td>
<tr class='er'>
<td>Bengals<td> 10<td> 11.1<td> -0.6<td>
<tr class='or'>
<td>Seahawks<td> 12<td> 12.8<td> -0.8<td>
<tr class='er'>
<td>Washington<td> 4<td> 4.8<td> -0.8<td>
<tr class='or'>
<td>Vikings<td> 7<td> 6.1<td> 0.9<td>
<tr class='er'>
<td>Jets<td> 4<td> 5.4<td> -1.4<td>
<tr class='or'>
<td>Patriots<td> 12<td> 10.5<td> 1.5<td>Healthy Gronk
<tr class='er'>
<td>Cardinals<td> 11<td> 9.5<td> 1.5<td>Carson Palmer was
actually having a pretty good season before he got hurt.
<tr class='or'>
<td>Browns<td> 7<td> 5.5<td> 1.5<td>Brian Hoyer
<tr class='er'>
<td>Colts<td> 11<td> 9.4<td> 1.6<td>
<tr class='or'>
<td>Rams<td> 6<td> 7.6<td> -1.6<td>Bradford injured
<tr class='er'>
<td>Raiders<td> 3<td> 4.9<td> -1.9<td>
<tr class='or'>
<td>Chiefs<td> 9<td> 11.1<td> -2.1<td>
<tr class='er'>
<td>Bears<td> 5<td> 7.3<td> -2.3<td>Offense collapsed
<tr class='or'>
<td>Bills<td> 9<td> 6.7<td> 2.3<td>Defense much better
<tr class='er'>
<td>Lions<td> 11<td> 8.5<td> 2.5<td>Defense much better
<tr class='or'>
<td>Steelers<td> 11<td> 8.2<td> 2.8<td>
Le'Veon Bell? The Steelers definitely had a rollercoaster season...
<tr class='er'>
<td>Ravens<td> 10<td> 7.1<td> 2.9<td>Flacco playing better
<tr class='or'>
<td>Buccaneers<td> 2<td> 5.3<td> -3.3<td>No offense
<tr class='er'>
<td>49ers<td> 8<td> 11.5<td> -3.5<td>Injuries
<tr class='or'>
<td>Saints<td> 7<td> 10.8<td> -3.8<td>Drew Brees did not have a
good year, weak defense didn't help.
<tr class='er'>
<td>Cowboys<td> 12<td> 8.2<td> 3.8<td>Defense better, running game
<tr class='or'>
<td>Panthers<td> 7<td> 11.6<td> -4.1<td>
Defense struggled, offense wasn't able to take up the slack.
<tr class='er'>
<td>Packers<td> 12<td> 7.8<td> 4.2<td>Rodgers plays whole season
<tr class='or'>
<td>Texans<td> 9<td> 4.2<td> 4.8<td>Last year's team was
probably not as bad as their record.
<tr class='er'>
<td>Titans<td> 2<td> 7.5<td> -5.5<td>Injuries. Also Ken
Whisenhunt's resume as a HC is mostly pretty ugly when he doesn't
have Kurt Warner as his starting QB.
</table>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Four teams over the 4.0 threshold, but
<a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2014/04/nfl-wrapup-pythagorean-projection-vs.html'>unlike
last year</a>, none over 5.5. Which gives a final scoring of
18 reasonably close, 10 moderately close, 4 wrong, and 0 "yikes".</p>
<li><p>Remember <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2014/04/nfl-wrapup-pythagorean-projection-vs.html'>last
year when I speculated that the Titans and Jets might have a
chance to contend for a playoff spot</a>? Yeah, leave us never speak
of that again.</p>
<li><p>On a related note, it's been since 94-95 that the Lions have
had back-to-back winning seasons, so it's probably advisable to
hold off declaring the Lions have turned the corner. If they can
come out and contend again in 2015, it'll be a solid sign that
2014 wasn't another fluke season for them like 2011 (and the first
half of 2007).</p>
<li><p>The Texans rebounded pretty nicely from their 2-14 season,
especially considering they started three different guys at
quarterback. But I think they're gonna have to find a solid
quarterback before they're gonna do much better than 9 wins.</p>
<li><p>The Saints have another tough season, but this time they can't
blame it on the absence of Sean Payton. Maybe most surprising was
5 home losses for a team that had mostly done very well in the
Superdome for many years.
</ul>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-37423718176400557842015-02-02T11:32:00.002-07:002015-02-02T11:32:57.340-07:00NFL Super Bowl Pick Results<div class='fspi'>
<p>Winning team in bold.</p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Patriots (SRS, Line)</b> vs. Seahawks (APR)</dt>
<dd>As you know if you read <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2015/01/nfl-super-bowl-picks.html'>my game picks post</a>, I was leaning towards the Patriots winning this game. But the Seahawks stayed in this, and came a lot closer to winning than I really expected.</dd>
<dd>Especially with close games like this that are back and forth in the 4th quarter and come down to the last seconds of the game, I feel like I'm picking nits to talk about why one team won and the other lost, but there are a couple things worth looking at.</dd>
<dd>As mentioned in the <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2015/02/nfl-super-bowl-power-rankings.html'>power rankings comments</a>, the Seahawks had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. If their defense gets one more stop, (or even just holds once for a field goal), they win. Instead they allowed the Patriots two long drives ending with touchdowns that erased their 10 point lead, and left them in a 4 point hole. Giving up two touchdowns was especially painful, because it meant their final drive was touchdown or bust.</dd>
<dd>The Seahawks offense established that 10 point lead with 5 minutes to play in the third quarter, and they had the ball three times before that final drive. If they score one more touchdown, they win. Instead, they punted three times, and had their final drive end with a turnover.</dd>
<dd>In the end, I think one of the big problems for the Seahawks was their offense was just too boom-or-bust, too dependent on the big play. In a situation like they had at the end of this game, where they needed a more methodical approach using high percentage plays, they just didn't seem to know how to do it, and it ended up costing them a win.</dd>
</dl>
<p>That's it for the regularly scheduled posts for the 2014 season. I'm planning to do the usual Pythagorean wrap up post, and then that will likely be it until July. Have a good offseason!</p>
<p><b>Totals</b></p>
<table class='std-data'>
<tr><th><th colspan='5'>This<br>Week
<th colspan='4'>This<br>Season<th>%
<tr><td>APR
<td align='right'>0<td>-<td align='right'>1<td><td>
<td align='right'>7<td>-<td align='right'>4<td><td>63.6%
<tr><td>SRS
<td align='right'>1<td>-<td align='right'>0<td><td>
<td align='right'>9<td>-<td align='right'>2<td><td>81.8%
<tr><td>Line
<td align='right'>1<td>-<td align='right'>0<td><td>
<td align='right'>9<td>-<td align='right'>2<td><td>81.8%
</table>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-43500474953600041762015-02-01T23:32:00.002-07:002015-02-01T23:32:17.098-07:00NFL Super Bowl Power Rankings<div class='fspi'>
<table class='std-data' id='fspi-pr-2014-week-SuperBowl'>
<tr><th class='sortable' title='Sort by spots moved from last week'>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by power index'>Power<br />Index</th><th>W-L</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by margin of victory/defeat'>This Week</th>
<tr class='or'><td> 1 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Seahawks<td><span class='data'>1.0996</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9842)</span><td>14-5<td><span class='data'>Lost by 4</span><br>vs Patriots
<tr class='er'><td> 2 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Patriots<td><span class='data'>1.0942</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0133)</span><td>15-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 4</span><br>@ Seahawks
<tr class='or'><td> 3 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Packers<td><span class='data'>1.0207</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9985)</span><td>13-5<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 4 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Bills<td><span class='data'>0.9860</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0013)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 5 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Cowboys<td><span class='data'>0.9837</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9977)</span><td>13-5<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 6 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Colts<td><span class='data'>0.9690</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0009)</span><td>13-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 7 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Broncos<td><span class='data'>0.9674</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9993)</span><td>12-5<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 8 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Ravens<td><span class='data'>0.9649</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0008)</span><td>11-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 9 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Steelers<td><span class='data'>0.9592</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9992)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 10 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Chiefs<td><span class='data'>0.9541</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9968)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 11 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Eagles<td><span class='data'>0.9343</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9957)</span><td>10-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 12 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Lions<td><span class='data'>0.9156</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9999)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 13 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Texans<td><span class='data'>0.9042</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9992)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 14 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Bengals<td><span class='data'>0.8989</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9993)</span><td>10-6-1<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 15 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Cardinals<td><span class='data'>0.8931</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9937)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 16 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Dolphins<td><span class='data'>0.8870</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0018)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 17 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Rams<td><span class='data'>0.8711</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9945)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 18 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Chargers<td><span class='data'>0.8701</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9993)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 19 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Panthers<td><span class='data'>0.8683</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9957)</span><td>8-9-1<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 20 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Vikings<td><span class='data'>0.8590</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9994)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 21 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jets<td><span class='data'>0.8501</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0021)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 22 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Falcons<td><span class='data'>0.8438</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9976)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 23 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>49ers<td><span class='data'>0.8384</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9938)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 24 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Giants<td><span class='data'>0.8319</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9959)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 25 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Saints<td><span class='data'>0.8161</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9980)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 26 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Browns<td><span class='data'>0.8113</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9990)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 27 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Raiders<td><span class='data'>0.8067</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9967)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 28 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Bears<td><span class='data'>0.7755</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9998)</span><td>5-11<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 29 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jaguars<td><span class='data'>0.7599</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9992)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 30 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Buccaneers<td><span class='data'>0.7473</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9984)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 31 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Washington<td><span class='data'>0.7381</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9968)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 32 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Titans<td><span class='data'>0.6819</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9990)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-pr-2014-week-SuperBowl')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Patriots gain in power, but not quite enough to overtake the
Seahawks for first place. I'm sure they'll get over it.</p>
<li><p>This was only the third Super Bowl to be tied at halftime
(along
with <a href='http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/198901220cin.htm'>SB
XXIII 49ers vs. Bengals</a>
and <a href='http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200502060nwe.htm'>SB
XXXIX Eagles vs. Patriots</a>).</p>
<li><p>The 2014 Patriots also join
the <a href='http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200802030nwe.htm'>2007
Giants</a> and
the <a href='http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200902010crd.htm'>2008
Steelers</a> as the only teams to win the Super Bowl after
trailing in the 4th quarter.</p>
<li><p>The Seahawks lose in possibly the most painful way
possible, blowing a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter, and then
throwing a game sealing interception on 2nd and goal at the 1 with
seconds left to play.</p>
<li><p>A lot of people have already said this, but especially with a
timeout left, handing off to Lynch is a pretty obvious play call
there. Or if you're gonna pass, throw a fade off play action or
something. Throwing over the middle like that seems like the worst
possible decision there.</p>
<li><p>As a football fan, I think this was maybe the most satifying
Super Bowl since the Saints beat the Colts in SB XLI (of course I
will recuse myself from judging SB XLV).
</ul>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-17048005906739984842015-01-28T10:18:00.000-07:002015-01-28T10:18:01.928-07:00NFL Super Bowl Picks<div class='fspi'><table class='std-data' id='fspi-picks-2014-week-SuperBowl'>
<tr><th>Game<th class='sortable' title='Sort by ρ'>APR<th class='sortable' title='Sort by δ'>SRS<th class='sortable' title='Sort by line value'>Line
<tr class='or'><td>Patriots @<br>Seahawks<td>Seahawks*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0346</span></span><td>Patriots*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>2.9</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='data'>-1</span>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-picks-2014-week-SuperBowl')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>So a lot of questions for this game. What happened to the
Seahawks in the first 57 or so minutes of the NFC Championship
Game? A fluke, or something the Patriots can take advantage of? If
the Patriots can make the Seahawks look even half that bad in the
Super Bowl, the Seahawks are going to find out what it's like to
be on the short end of a lop-sided result in this Super Bowl.</p>
<li><p>How good is the Seahawks defense, really? My feeling is the
Seahawks defense isn't quite as good as their reputation. Since they
lost to the Cowboys in week 6, the Seahawks played five games
against opponents starting their second or third quarterback. Eight
of those games were played against teams that finished in the bottom
half of the league
when <a href='http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2014/#team_stats::3'>ranked
by points scored</a>. The Seahawks did allow the fewest points of
any team this year, but it's not like they faced
a <a href='http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murderers%27_Row'>Murderer's
Row</a> of offenses, either. I think the Seahawks defense is
overrated, and definitely not as good as they were last year.</p>
<li><p>Can the Patriots score on the Seahawks defense? An inability to
score on a good defense was the problem for the Patriots in 2007
and 2011. But they have a lot of impressive wins this seasons,
including blow out victories over the Bengals, Broncos, Colts
(twice), Lions, and Chargers. I don't think the Patriots need to
score a lot of points to win this game, as the Seahawks are just
1-4 when their opponent scores 24+ points.</p>
<li><p>The last two times the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl,
they lost because they couldn't score on the Giants' defense. If
they lose again Sunday, I think the reason will have to be because
of the Seahawks' defense.</p>
<li><p>Like last year, I think this game will be decided when the
Seahawks' defense is facing their opponent's offense. But this
time around, I think the Seahawks' offense is weak enough that if
their offense does have a slow start, the Patriots won't have to
worry about falling into a deep hole by halftime like the Broncos
did last year.</p>
</ul>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-17631705766504371842015-01-25T22:35:00.002-07:002015-01-26T08:24:52.505-07:00NFL Wrapup: APR's Biggest Upsets<div class='fspi'>
<p><b>Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10</b></p>
<ul>
<li>Week 13: the Cardinals go to Atlanta, perhaps expecting an easy
win over the 4-7 Falcons, only to discover that the Falcons are
still pretty good on offense, and had enough of a defense to keep
the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals in check.</p>
<li><p>Week 1: the Patriots go to Miami, and get shut out in the
second half, thanks to a Dolphins' defense that (at times) looked
pretty good.</p>
<li><p>Week 2: thanks in part to a terrible field goal kicker, the
Lions' sputtering offense can only put 7 points on the board, and
their defense, which was mostly pretty good, allowed the Panthers
three long scoring drives.</p>
<li><p>Week 13: the Giants go to Jacksonville, and let a 21-3 halftime
lead slip away. This looks like more of an upset thanks to the
Giants finishing the season 3-1, and the Jaguars having (yet
another) a really bad season.</p>
<li><p>Week 8: the Packers travel to New Orleans, but their defense can't
stop the run, and their offense can't keep up with the Saints after
Aaron Rodgers tweaks his hamstring. Probably the best game for the
Saints all season.</p>
</ul>
<p><b>APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2014 Season</b></p>
<ol start='10'>
<li>Week 10: Steelers 13, <b>Jets 20</b> (ρ=1.1766)<br> The
Steelers had a pretty bad defense this year, they were 2-5
(including the Wildcard playoff loss) when they didn't score at
least 27 points. That meant when their offense had a bad game (as it
did in this game, with 4 turnovers, a missed field goal, and a
turnover on downs) even a pretty bad team could steal a win.
</ol><ol start='9'>
<li>Week 17: <b>Jets 37</b>, Dolphins 24 (ρ=1.1785)<br>
Both of these teams were out of the playoffs and thus playing out
the final game of the season. I suppose the difference was, the Jets
had been out of the playoff race much longer, and so were much more
in the mood to inflict some pain on their divisional rival.<br><br>
It should also be noted that while the Dolphins' defense at times
looked good in 2014, the Dolphins were also 2-7 when they didn't
score at least 27 points, which (at best) doesn't say much for that
defense's consistency.
</ol><ol start='8'>
<li>Week 16: Bills 24, <b>Raiders 26</b> (ρ=1.1796)<br>
The Bills needed this game to stay alive for the playoffs. But their
defense and running game stayed home, and as I remarked in
the <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2014/12/nfl-week-16-pick-results.html'>week
16 pick results</a>, Kyle Orton wasn't the kind of quarterback that
could carry a team in a situation like that, even against the likes
of the Raiders.
</ol><ol start='7'>
<li>Week 7: Seahawks 26, <b>Rams 28</b> (ρ=1.2046)<br>
Another case where the Seahawks offense spent a big chunk of a game
doing a whole lot of not much. They managed to get going late in the
game, but the Rams managed one more late touchdown and (unlike the
Packers) got a key late assist from their special teams to close out
the win.
</ol><ol start='6'>
<li>Week 16: Eagles 24, <b>Washington 27</b> (ρ=1.2052)<br> The
Eagles didn't have a good defense this year, as their record of 1-6
when their offense didn't score at least 30 points
attests. Washington only scored more than 27 points in two other
games (and one of them was in their other game against the Eagles).
</ol><ol start='5'>
<li>Week 12: Chiefs 20, <b>Raiders 24</b> (ρ=1.2072)<br> Looking
back on their season, I wonder if the Chiefs suffered an injury to
some key offensive player(s) sometime around this game. A big part
of the Chiefs problem this season was they mostly lost when they
didn't score at least 21 points. For their last 6 games,
starting with this one, the Chiefs only made it to 21 points in one
game, finishing the season 2-4.
</ol><ol start='4'>
<li>Week 11: Broncos 7, <b>Rams 22</b> (ρ=1.2230)<br>
Peyton Manning's injury supposedly happened during the Broncos' week
16 game against the Chargers. But looking back I wonder if there
wasn't an earlier injury. In the first 9 games of the season, Manning
averaged 3.2 touchdowns a game. From this game to the end of
the regular season, Manning averaged 1.4 touchdowns a game, less
than half his earlier average. Certainly the Rams' defense deserves
a lot of credit for their performance in this game, but I really
wonder if Manning was hurt a lot earlier than has been reported.
</ol><ol start='3'>
<li>Week 4: <b>Buccaneers 27</b>, Steelers 24 (ρ=1.2306)<br>
As mentioned above, the Steelers had a pretty bad defense (here
allowing the Buccaneers their second highest point total of the
season). The Steelers' offense didn't have as bad a game as against
the Jets in week 10, but they were only able to score once in the
second half, which opened the door for the Bucs to chip away at the
lead, and ultimately take the lead with just a few seconds left on
the game clock.
</ol><ol start='2'>
<li>Week 8: <b>Washington 20</b>, Cowboys 17 (OT) (ρ=1.2349)<br>
Part of this was Tony Romo getting hurt in the 3rd quarter. But even
to that point, the Cowboys offense struggled, scoring 7 points on a
Washington defense that gave up more points than all but 3 other
teams in the league. Brandon Weeden (somewhat miraculously) managed
to put 10 points on the board to force overtime, but it just wasn't
enough.
</ol><ol start='1'>
<li>Week 1: <b>Titans 26</b>, Chiefs 10 (ρ=1.3249)<br>
The Titans had what was easily their best game of the year, with
Jake Locker throwing a couple touchdowns and no interceptions, and
the Titans posting 162 rushing yards. What makes this the biggest
upset of the year was the fact that the Titans were easily one of
the worst teams in the league in their remaining 15 games, with
their only other win coming against the also-very-bad Jaguars.
</ol>
<p>As a measure of how big an upset the Titans @ Chiefs game was, it
would qualify for a spot
in <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2012/08/aprs-top-25-regular-season-upsets-index.html'>APR's
top 25 regular season upsets</a>, coming in between #5 (2004
Patriots @ Dolphins) and #6 (2011 Packers @ Chiefs).</p>
<p>As usual, I reserve the right to remove any game I feel was
affected by teams resting their starters. Thanks to most teams
having something to play for in week 17, no games were disqualified
from this list.<p>
<p><b>Biggest Upsets According to the Line</b>
<p>Winning teams in bold. </p>
<table class='std-data'>
<tr><th>Week<th>Game<th>Line
<tr><td>Week 9<td><b>Rams 13</b>, 49ers 10<td>49ers -10</tr>
<tr><td>Week 8<td><b>Washington 20</b>, Cowboys 17 (OT)<td>Cowboys -9½</tr>
<tr><td>Week 6<td><b>Cowboys 30</b>, Seahawks 23<td>Seahawks -8½</tr>
<tr><td>Week 2<td><b>Bears 28</b>, 49ers 20<td>49ers -7</tr>
<tr><td>Week 2<td>Saints 24, <b>Browns 26</b><td>Saints -7</tr>
<tr><td>Week 4<td><b>Buccaneers 27</b>, Steelers 24<td>Steelers -7
<tr><td>Week 5<td><b>Bills 17</b>, Lions 14<td>Lions -7</tr>
</table>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-53811466025267923592015-01-19T14:20:00.000-07:002015-01-19T14:20:03.302-07:00NFL Championship Pick Results<div class='fspi'>
<p>Winning team in bold.</p>
<dl>
<dt>Packers @ <b>Seahawks (SRS, APR, Line)</b></dt>
<dd>It seemed like almost everyhing that went wrong for the Packers
this season was on display in this game. They settled for field
goals after driving into the red zone. They had ugly break downs on
special teams. And (for the Seahawks' last three drives) the defense
didn't look like they could stop anything.
<dd>Just a really frustrating experience, to be gifted a game where
the Seahawks, for 57 minutes of game time, played like they didn't
have any business with the top seed in the NFC. And the frustrating
thing is, everything the Seahawks needed to go their way
happened. If the Packers got a touchdown on either one of their
early drives, they win. If the Packers recover the onside kick, they
win. If the Packers tip away the two point conversion, they win. If
the Packers get a touchdown on their last drive, they win.
</dd>
<dd>But the Seahawks got all those breaks to go their way, and to
their credit, they managed to put together three very good drives,
all ending with touchdowns, right when they desperately needed
needed them, and it won them the game.</dd>
<dt>Colts @ <b>Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)</b></dt>
<dd>This game, on the other hand, went pretty much as expected. Much
like in their regular season meeting, the Patriots offense didn't
have much trouble scoring repeatedly on the Colts defense.</dd>
<dd>Somehow Andrew Luck and the Colts managed to keep it to a
relatively close 10 point differential at halftime, but an
ineffective passing game, and too few attempts at running the ball
meant that the Patriots had a pretty easy time scoring three
unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter, which put the game well
out of reach of the Colts.
</dl>
<p><b>Totals</b></p>
<p>Well, at least a clean sweep for picks this week.</p>
<table class='std-data'>
<tr><th><th colspan='5'>This<br>Week
<th colspan='4'>This<br>Season<th>%
<tr><td>APR
<td align='right'>2<td>-<td align='right'>0<td><td>
<td align='right'>7<td>-<td align='right'>3<td><td>70%
<tr><td>SRS
<td align='right'>2<td>-<td align='right'>0<td><td>
<td align='right'>8<td>-<td align='right'>2<td><td>80%
<tr><td>Line
<td align='right'>2<td>-<td align='right'>0<td><td>
<td align='right'>8<td>-<td align='right'>2<td><td>80%
</table>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-53275923982880856112015-01-18T21:05:00.002-07:002015-01-18T21:05:38.267-07:00NFL Championship Power Rankings<div class='fspi'>
<table class='std-data' id='fspi-pr-2014-week-ConfChamp'>
<tr><th class='sortable' title='Sort by spots moved from last week'>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by power index'>Power<br />Index</th><th>W-L</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by margin of victory/defeat'>This Week</th>
<tr class='or'><td> 1 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Seahawks<td><span class='data'>1.1173</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0115)</span><td>14-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 6</span><br>vs Packers
<tr class='er'><td> 2 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Patriots<td><span class='data'>1.0799</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0134)</span><td>14-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 38</span><br>vs Colts
<tr class='or'><td> 3 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Packers<td><span class='data'>1.0223</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0121)</span><td>13-5<td><span class='data'>Lost by 6</span><br>@ Seahawks
<tr class='er'><td> 4 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Cowboys<td><span class='data'>0.9860</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9987)</span><td>13-5<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 5 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Bills<td><span class='data'>0.9847</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0035)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 6 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Colts<td><span class='data'>0.9682</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9782)</span><td>13-6<td><span class='data'>Lost by 38</span><br>@ Patriots
<tr class='or'><td> 7 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Broncos<td><span class='data'>0.9681</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9989)</span><td>12-5<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 8 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Ravens<td><span class='data'>0.9641</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9988)</span><td>11-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 9 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Steelers<td><span class='data'>0.9600</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9971)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 10 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Chiefs<td><span class='data'>0.9571</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0020)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 11 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Eagles<td><span class='data'>0.9384</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0005)</span><td>10-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 12 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Lions<td><span class='data'>0.9156</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0039)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 13 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Texans<td><span class='data'>0.9049</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9933)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 14 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Bengals<td><span class='data'>0.8996</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9947)</span><td>10-6-1<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 15 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Cardinals<td><span class='data'>0.8988</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0035)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 16 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Dolphins<td><span class='data'>0.8854</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0026)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 17 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Rams<td><span class='data'>0.8759</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0020)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 18 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Panthers<td><span class='data'>0.8721</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0022)</span><td>8-9-1<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 19 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Chargers<td><span class='data'>0.8707</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0021)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 20 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Vikings<td><span class='data'>0.8596</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0031)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 21 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jets<td><span class='data'>0.8483</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0026)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 22 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Falcons<td><span class='data'>0.8458</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0015)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 23 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>49ers<td><span class='data'>0.8436</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0027)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 24 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Giants<td><span class='data'>0.8353</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9980)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 25 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Saints<td><span class='data'>0.8177</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0006)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 26 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Browns<td><span class='data'>0.8121</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9961)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 27 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Raiders<td><span class='data'>0.8093</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0017)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 28 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Bears<td><span class='data'>0.7756</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0033)</span><td>5-11<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 29 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jaguars<td><span class='data'>0.7605</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9941)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 30 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Buccaneers<td><span class='data'>0.7485</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0012)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 31 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Washington<td><span class='data'>0.7405</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9977)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 32 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Titans<td><span class='data'>0.6826</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9946)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-pr-2014-week-ConfChamp')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>As I indicated
in <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2015/01/nfl-championship-game-picks.html'>the
game picks</a> I wasn't expecting the Packers to win this. But
perhaps except for a full-on blow out, I'm not sure they could've
lost in a more disappointing manner.</p>
<li><p>The top 3 remain pretty much the same, the Colts drop out of
the top 5 after getting blown out in their game. At least
moderately surprisingly, there's no shuffling around in the lower
ranks. Usually there's at least a couple teams close enough to
switch ranks based on secondary effects.</p>
<li><p>Tom Brady will (presumably) start a record sixth Super Bowl
(breaking the tie he was in with John Elway, who has five).</p>
<li><p>The Seahawks become the first team since the 2003-2004 Patriots
to qualify for the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons.</p>
<li><p>A number of teams have back-to-pack wins in the Super Bowl,
there are also three that have lost on their return trip: the
Cowboys in 1978, the Raiders in 1983, and the Packers in
1997. I'll have more to say in the Super Bowl game picks post, but
I think the Seahawks have a chance be the fourth team in that
win-loss group.</p>
</ul>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-59394334903395627992015-01-14T18:53:00.001-07:002015-01-15T01:04:10.228-07:00NFL Championship Game Picks<link rel='stylesheet' type='text/css' href='fspi.css' />
<script src='js/fspi.js'></script>
<div class='fspi'><table class='std-data' id='fspi-picks-2014-week-ConfChamp'>
<tr><th>Game<th class='sortable' title='Sort by ρ'>APR<th class='sortable' title='Sort by δ'>SRS<th class='sortable' title='Sort by line value'>Line
<tr class='or'><td>Packers @<br>Seahawks<td>Seahawks<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0935</span></span><td>Seahawks<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>1.0</span></span><td>Seahawks<br /><span class='data'>-7</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Colts @<br>Patriots<td>Patriots<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0766</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>4.8</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='data'>-6½</span>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-picks-2014-week-ConfChamp')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Like last week, everybody likes the home teams.</p>
<li><p>Since some early struggles and a 3-3 start, the Seahawks have
finished on a very impressive 9-1 streak. That streak seems a bit
less impressive when you notice that 7 of those games were facing
offenses in the bottom half of the league (ranked 19th or lower) in points
scored. They also played 4 of those games facing teams starting
their second or third string quarterbacks (or fourth string,
depending on where you want to put Ryan Lindley).</p>
<p>I feel like the Seahawks are vulnerable to a high scoring
team. Their record bears this out, they are 1-4 when their opponent
scores 24+ points. On paper, the Packers look look like a team that
can take advantage of this weakness.</p>
<p>The biggest problem with this plan is Aaron Rodgers is hurt, and
will almost certainly still be limited for Sunday. Beyond that, the
Packers offense has also shown signs of struggling against good
defenses, particularly on the road. Two of those games (@ Seahawks
and @ Lions) were early in the season, but the third (@ Bills) was
just a few weeks ago.</p>
<p>Another problem for the Packers is their run defense. They've done
a lot better since the bye week, but Sunday will be facing the best
QB-RB rushing duo in the league. The Cowboys ran for 145 yards last
week, and it seems almost certain the Seahawks will be able to
surpass that. Maybe the Packers have a chance if they can score
early and often, and keep it a game where the Seahawks will feel
like they need to pass a lot to stay in it. But I think this is
gonna be closer to the season opener, where the Packers kept it
close for a while, but the Seahawks pull away in the second
half.</p>
<li><p>Last week, Andrew Luck and the Colts took a big first step in
shaking off their "can't win on the road against good teams"
reputation, holding the Broncos to a near-season low of just 13
points, and scoring 24 on a defense that had held opponents to 21
or lower in 10 games. If the Colts can go into Foxborough and beat
the Patriots, it will represent an extrordinary sweep of two of
the highest regarded quarterbacks in the league, going back 15
years, and go along way to justifying Luck's place at that same
level.</p>
<p>That said, I think this is going to be the end of the line for
this year's Colts. They are 0-5 when allowing more than 28 points
this season, and the Patriots have reached that mark 9 times this
season (including last week's victory over the Ravens). The Patriots
are also 11-0 when they score at least 23 points (again counting
last week). Unless Tom Brady is hurt too, I don't think the Colts'
defense has what it takes to slow down the Patriots enough to keep
them in this game.
</ul></div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-57494414228287367932015-01-12T09:48:00.000-07:002015-01-12T10:24:26.285-07:00NFL Divisional Pick Results<div class='fspi'>
<p>Winning team in bold.</p>
<dl>
<dt>Ravens @ <b>Patriots (SRS, APR, Line)</b></dt>
<dd>The Ravens' offense certainly did their part in this game, putting
up 31 points on the Patriots. But the Ravens' defense allowed the
Patriots five sustained drives (the shortest was 67 yards), all
ending with touchdowns.</dd>
<dd>Joe Flacco may actually be maturing into a better quarterback than
he was in the first years of his career, but when it takes 36 points
to win a game, even the best quarterbacks can be in a toss-up situation.
</dd>
<dt>Panthers @ <b>Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)</b></dt>
<dd>The Seahawks won this pretty easily, as they were widely expected
to. Maybe the most surprising thing about this game is that the
Panthers kept it within a single score into the 4th quarter, and if
Cam Newton had played a better game, the Panthers might have had a
chance for an upset.
</dd>
<dt>Cowboys @ <b>Packers (APR, SRS, Line)</b></dt>
<dd>After their initial touchdown drive, the Packers really seemed to
struggle in this game, producing drives that ended in a lost fumble,
two punts, and two field goals. I really thought this game was all
but over when the Cowboys went up 21-13 late in the 3rd quarter.</p>
<dd>But after that, the Packers' offense finally got on a roll,
posting a couple of long touchdown drives, and a final drive to
finish off the final 4:06 of game clock.
</dd>
<dd>The Cowboys seemed to pursue a ball control strategy similar to
what the Bills did in their win over the Packers in week 15. The
problem with this strategy is it requires a defense that can shut
the Packers offense down for an entire game, and (as the Cowboys
found out) blows up if you can't.</dd>
<dd>It should also be noted that the Dez Bryant catch reversal controversy
obscured a rather unfortunate play call by the Cowboys. That play
came on 4th and 2. The Cowboys elected to throw what has to be a
pretty low percentage deep ball 30 yards down field. But why do that
when they could've handed off to DeMarco Murray? Murray had
been shredding the Packers' defense all game, and would've almost
certainly resulted in a conversion and a fresh set of downs.</dd>
<dt><b>Colts</b> @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)</dt>
<dd>Just an ugly day for the Broncos' passing offense. One of the
lowest completion rates (57%) and yards per attempt (4.58) since
Manning went to Denver.
</dd><dd>
The Broncos' defense didn't have a good day either, giving up
several long drives, and largely letting the Colts offense control
the tempo of the game. The Broncos just didn't look anything like
the team that won the AFC's second seed.</dd>
<dd><b>Added:</b> It's now being <a href='https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/554667776384589824'>reported
that Peyton Manning was playing with a torn quad</a>, which would explain a lot
about how this game played out.
</dl>
<p><b>Totals</b></p>
<table class='std-data'>
<tr><th><th colspan='5'>This<br>Week
<th colspan='4'>This<br>Season<th>%
<tr><td>APR
<td align='right'>3<td>-<td align='right'>1<td><td>
<td align='right'>5<td>-<td align='right'>3<td><td>62.5%
<tr><td>SRS
<td align='right'>3<td>-<td align='right'>1<td><td>
<td align='right'>6<td>-<td align='right'>2<td><td>75%
<tr><td>Line
<td align='right'>3<td>-<td align='right'>1<td><td>
<td align='right'>6<td>-<td align='right'>2<td><td>75%
</table>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-14437565754165906662015-01-11T18:22:00.002-07:002015-01-11T22:05:15.211-07:00NFL Divisional Power Rankings<div class='fspi'>
<table class='std-data' id='fspi-pr-2014-week-Division'>
<tr><th class='sortable' title='Sort by spots moved from last week'>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by power index'>Power<br />Index</th><th>W-L</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by margin of victory/defeat'>This Week</th>
<tr class='or'><td> 1 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Seahawks<td><span class='data'>1.1046</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0268)</span><td>13-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 14</span><br>vs Panthers
<tr class='er'><td> 2 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Patriots<td><span class='data'>1.0656</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9942)</span><td>13-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 4</span><br>vs Ravens
<tr class='or'><td> 3 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Packers<td><span class='data'>1.0101</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0167)</span><td>13-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 5</span><br>vs Cowboys
<tr class='er'><td> 4 (<span class='data'>↑5</span>)<td>Colts<td><span class='data'>0.9898</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0476)</span><td>13-5<td><span class='data'>Won by 11</span><br>@ Broncos
<tr class='or'><td> 5 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Cowboys<td><span class='data'>0.9873</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0295)</span><td>13-5<td><span class='data'>Lost by 5</span><br>@ Packers
<tr class='er'><td> 6 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Bills<td><span class='data'>0.9813</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9981)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 7 (<span class='data'>↓4</span>)<td>Broncos<td><span class='data'>0.9692</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9685)</span><td>12-5<td><span class='data'>Lost by 11</span><br>vs Colts
<tr class='er'><td> 8 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Ravens<td><span class='data'>0.9652</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0242)</span><td>11-7<td><span class='data'>Lost by 4</span><br>@ Patriots
<tr class='or'><td> 9 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Steelers<td><span class='data'>0.9628</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0133)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 10 (<span class='data'>↓3</span>)<td>Chiefs<td><span class='data'>0.9552</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9994)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 11 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Eagles<td><span class='data'>0.9379</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0200)</span><td>10-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 12 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Lions<td><span class='data'>0.9121</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0098)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 13 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Texans<td><span class='data'>0.9111</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0204)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 14 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Bengals<td><span class='data'>0.9043</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0126)</span><td>10-6-1<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 15 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Cardinals<td><span class='data'>0.8956</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0129)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 16 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Dolphins<td><span class='data'>0.8831</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0000)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 17 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Rams<td><span class='data'>0.8741</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0059)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 18 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Panthers<td><span class='data'>0.8702</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0252)</span><td>8-9-1<td><span class='data'>Lost by 14</span><br>@ Seahawks
<tr class='or'><td> 19 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Chargers<td><span class='data'>0.8689</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9962)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 20 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Vikings<td><span class='data'>0.8569</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0090)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 21 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jets<td><span class='data'>0.8462</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0006)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 22 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Falcons<td><span class='data'>0.8446</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0149)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 23 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>49ers<td><span class='data'>0.8413</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0090)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 24 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Giants<td><span class='data'>0.8369</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0188)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 25 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Saints<td><span class='data'>0.8172</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0143)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 26 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Browns<td><span class='data'>0.8153</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0162)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 27 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Raiders<td><span class='data'>0.8079</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9961)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 28 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Bears<td><span class='data'>0.7731</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0104)</span><td>5-11<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 29 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jaguars<td><span class='data'>0.7650</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0197)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 30 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Buccaneers<td><span class='data'>0.7476</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0134)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 31 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Washington<td><span class='data'>0.7422</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0183)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 32 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Titans<td><span class='data'>0.6863</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0186)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-pr-2014-week-Division')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Congratulations to the Seahawks, who become the first defending
Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game the following season
since the Patriots did it in 2005.</p>
<li><p>If the Broncos had also won, it would've been the first time since
2004 that all four home teams had won in the Divisional round, and the
first time since 1997 that both Super Bowl teams won a playoff game the
following season. As it is, these will have to wait for another season.</p>
<li><p>So a couple of things about that overturned catch at the end of
the Cowboys-Packers game:</p>
<ol><li>I'm not a big fan of the going-to-the-ground rule, but<p />
<li>By the going-to-the-ground rule, that was not a catch. If
you watch the replay, Bryant bobbles the ball when he hits the
ground (before rolling over into the endzone). It's a
near-textbook example of a non-catch according to this rule.<p />
</ol>
<li><p>Nice to see the final four teams in the top four of the
rankings. I think I'd probably rank them in that order, too.
</ul>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-1207425172501280622015-01-08T09:57:00.004-07:002015-01-08T10:06:47.354-07:00NFL Divisional Game Picks<link rel='stylesheet' type='text/css' href='fspi.css' />
<script src='js/fspi.js'></script>
<div class='fspi'><table class='std-data' id='fspi-picks-2014-week-Division'>
<tr><th>Game<th class='sortable' title='Sort by ρ'>APR<th class='sortable' title='Sort by δ'>SRS<th class='sortable' title='Sort by line value'>Line
<tr class='or'><td>Panthers @<br>Seahawks<td>Seahawks<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.2672</span></span><td>Seahawks<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>11.5</span></span><td>Seahawks<br /><span class='data'>-10½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Ravens @<br>Patriots<td>Patriots<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1373</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>5.7</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='data'>-7</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Colts @<br>Broncos<td>Broncos<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0592</span></span><td>Broncos<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>4.3</span></span><td>Broncos<br /><span class='data'>-7</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Cowboys @<br>Packers<td>Packers*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0360</span></span><td>Packers<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>3.0</span></span><td>Packers<br /><span class='data'>-6½</span>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-picks-2014-week-Division')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>The Panthers played the Seahawks close in the regular season,
but that was early on, and played in Charlotte. The Panthers are
gonna have to play a lot better than they did last week, or this
game is going to be over by halftime.</p>
<p>I actually think the Seahawks are maybe not as good as their
record indicates, and shouldn't be such a lock to repeat in the
Super Bowl (I'll have more to say about that next week). But unless
Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and half their defense can't play
Saturday, I just don't see the Panthers coming away with the
upset.</p>
<li><p>The Ravens have only beat the Patriots three times, but two of
those victories have come in the playoffs. If they're going to get
a fourth win this weekend, I think the Ravens will have to play
better defense than they did against the Steelers.</p>
<p>One factor that may play into this is the status of Julian
Edelman, who is currently listed as <s>questionable</s> probable for the game. If he
can't play, or is limited, the Ravens will be able to focus a lot
more on Rob Gronkowsky, the Pats' other big threat on offense.</p>
<li><p>The Colts and Broncos will play a rematch of their week 1
meeting this week. As I've mentioned before, the Colts have not
played well on the road against good teams, and unless the Broncos
just faceplant this game, the Colts will have another Divisional
round exit in the playoffs.</p>
<li><p>Unless you've been living under a rock this week, you already
know Cowboys @ Packers is the first time these teams have met in
the playoffs at Lambeau since
the <a href='http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_NFL_Championship_Game'>Ice
Bowl game</a>. Besides all the other differences between then and
now, Sunday's weather is expected to feature a relatively warm
high of 20F.</p>
<p>As for the game, well, I learned from the 2011 playoffs not to
take anything for granted. But the Cowboys played a relatively
sloppy game last week, with a slow start, some noticeably errant
throws by Romo, and a lot of yards given up on defense.</p>
<p>Assuming Aaron Rodgers stays healthy and plays the whole game,
and the offense gets on a roll, the Cowboys will have a very tough
time of it.</p>
</ul></div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-84235458138880986062015-01-05T10:05:00.000-07:002015-01-05T10:09:50.253-07:00NFL Wild Card Pick Results<div class='fspi'>
<p>Winning team in bold.</p>
<dl>
<dt>Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ <b>Panthers (Line)</b></dt>
<dd>What an awful performance by Ryan Lindley. I don't think I've seen
a worse performance by a quarterback in the playoffs. Even
<a href='http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201301050gnb.htm'>Joe
Webb a couple years ago</a> had a better game.</dd>
<dd>The Panthers played like you'd expect a 7-9-1 team to play: some
ugly turnovers, a lot of drives that ended without a score, and a
general failure to put away a weak opponent until late in the game.
</dd>
<dt><b>Ravens (SRS)</b> @ Steelers (APR, Line)</dt>
<dd>I wrote in
<a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2014/12/nfl-wild-card-game-picks.html'>the
game picks</a> that the Ravens could make a run if their defense got
on a roll. They certainly took the first step in this game, holding
the Steelers to just three field goals and a touchdown, and forcing
three turnovers at the end of the game.</dd>
<dd>Steelers put up a lot of yards on the Ravens' defense, but too
many of their drives ended in field goals, punts, and
turnovers. They were playing catch up on the score board for most of
the game, and the Ravens were able to pull away in the second half.
</dd>
<dt>Bengals @ <b>Colts (APR, SRS, Line)</b></dt>
<dd>The least surprising of this week's games. Without their two
biggest playmakers on offense (AJ Green and Jermain Gresham) the
Bengals were in deep trouble when the game started. Perhaps the
biggest surprise was that they kept the game close through halftime.
</dd>
<dt>Lions @ <b>Cowboys (APR, SRS, Line)</b></dt>
<dd>That was probably the ugliest job of officiating since the Fail
Mary game. The Lions really got a bad deal there. But they also
played a pretty poor second half, managing just one field goal from
6 possessions, and leaving the door open for a bad call to decide
the game for them. (It should also be noted a DPI call would not
have won the game for them, it just would've helped keep their drive
going.)</dd>
<dd>The Cowboys, for their part, didn't look great either. They only
managed to score 14 points through three quarters, Romo was sacked 6
times, and a lot of his passes looked poorly thrown and off target.
The offense may get most of the attention, but the defense holding the
Lions to just a field goal in the second half was a key factor in
giving them the chance to win this game.
</dd>
</dl>
<p><b>Totals</b></p>
<table class='std-data'>
<tr><th><th colspan='5'>This<br>Week
<th colspan='4'>This<br>Season<th>%
<tr><td>APR
<td align='right'>2<td>-<td align='right'>2<td><td>
<td align='right'>2<td>-<td align='right'>2<td><td>50%
<tr><td>SRS
<td align='right'>3<td>-<td align='right'>1<td><td>
<td align='right'>3<td>-<td align='right'>1<td><td>75%
<tr><td>Line
<td align='right'>3<td>-<td align='right'>1<td><td>
<td align='right'>3<td>-<td align='right'>1<td><td>75%
</table>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-22055384107788402642015-01-04T18:02:00.002-07:002015-01-04T18:04:01.285-07:00NFL Wildcard Power Rankings<link rel='stylesheet' type='text/css' href='fspi.css'>
<script src='js/fspi.js'></script>
<div class='fspi'>
<table class='std-data' id='fspi-pr-2014-week-WildCard'>
<tr><th class='sortable' title='Sort by spots moved from last week'>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by power index'>Power<br />Index</th><th>W-L</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by margin of victory/defeat'>This Week</th>
<tr class='or'><td> 1 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Seahawks<td><span class='data'>1.0757</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9876)</span><td>12-4<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 2 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Patriots<td><span class='data'>1.0718</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0014)</span><td>12-4<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 3 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Broncos<td><span class='data'>1.0007</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9926)</span><td>12-4<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 4 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Packers<td><span class='data'>0.9935</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0047)</span><td>12-4<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 5 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Bills<td><span class='data'>0.9831</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9988)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 6 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Cowboys<td><span class='data'>0.9590</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0119)</span><td>13-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 4</span><br>vs Lions
<tr class='or'><td> 7 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Chiefs<td><span class='data'>0.9558</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9868)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 8 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Steelers<td><span class='data'>0.9502</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9705)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Lost by 13</span><br>vs Ravens
<tr class='or'><td> 9 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Colts<td><span class='data'>0.9448</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0249)</span><td>12-5<td><span class='data'>Won by 16</span><br>vs Bengals
<tr class='er'><td> 10 (<span class='data'>↑3</span>)<td>Ravens<td><span class='data'>0.9424</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0359)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Won by 13</span><br>@ Steelers
<tr class='or'><td> 11 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Eagles<td><span class='data'>0.9195</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0043)</span><td>10-6<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 12 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Lions<td><span class='data'>0.9032</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9989)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Lost by 4</span><br>@ Cowboys
<tr class='or'><td> 13 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Bengals<td><span class='data'>0.8931</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9801)</span><td>10-6-1<td><span class='data'>Lost by 16</span><br>@ Colts
<tr class='er'><td> 14 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Texans<td><span class='data'>0.8929</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0077)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 15 (<span class='data'>↓6</span>)<td>Cardinals<td><span class='data'>0.8843</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9566)</span><td>11-6<td><span class='data'>Lost by 11</span><br>@ Panthers
<tr class='er'><td> 16 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Dolphins<td><span class='data'>0.8831</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0034)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 17 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Chargers<td><span class='data'>0.8723</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9973)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 18 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Rams<td><span class='data'>0.8690</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9872)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 19 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Vikings<td><span class='data'>0.8492</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0062)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 20 (<span class='data'>↑5</span>)<td>Panthers<td><span class='data'>0.8489</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0406)</span><td>8-8-1<td><span class='data'>Won by 11</span><br>vs Cardinals
<tr class='or'><td> 21 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Jets<td><span class='data'>0.8456</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9977)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 22 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>49ers<td><span class='data'>0.8338</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9904)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 23 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Falcons<td><span class='data'>0.8322</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0042)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 24 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Giants<td><span class='data'>0.8215</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0024)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 25 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Raiders<td><span class='data'>0.8110</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9913)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 26 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Saints<td><span class='data'>0.8057</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0064)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 27 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Browns<td><span class='data'>0.8023</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0078)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 28 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Bears<td><span class='data'>0.7651</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0048)</span><td>5-11<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 29 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jaguars<td><span class='data'>0.7503</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0086)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 30 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Buccaneers<td><span class='data'>0.7377</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0059)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='or'><td> 31 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Washington<td><span class='data'>0.7289</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0029)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
<tr class='er'><td> 32 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Titans<td><span class='data'>0.6738</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0059)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Bye</span><br>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-pr-2014-week-WildCard')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>And both the Bengals' and Lions' winless streak in the playoffs
will extend another year. The Lions at least showed some signs of
life in their game.</p>
<li><p>Some shuffling around in the rankings, but the top 5 remain the
same. And while the streak has been interrupted, the APR tradition
of the lowest ranked playoff team winning a game in the playoffs
continues as the Panthers advance.</p>
<li><p>I'm not sure there's anybody in the league the Cardinals could
beat with Ryan Lindley as their quarterback. Still, I suppose
those 11 wins count for something. If Carson Palmer comes back
okay, and stays healthy for the whole season, they should have a
chance to do something next year.</p>
<li><p>Meanwhile, one of the Cardinals' first orders of business
should be to cut Ryan Lindley. I think he's at the "what you see
is what you get" point in his career, which mean he's not
obviously better than some random guy pulled out of the
stands.</p>
</ul>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-60107186519826524352014-12-30T21:33:00.002-07:002015-01-04T18:04:49.568-07:00NFL Wild Card Game Picks<div class='fspi'><table class='std-data' id='fspi-picks-2014-week-WildCard'>
<tr><th>Game<th class='sortable' title='Sort by ρ'>APR<th class='sortable' title='Sort by δ'>SRS<th class='sortable' title='Sort by line value'>Line
<tr class='or'><td>Cardinals @<br>Panthers<td>Cardinals<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1332</span></span><td>Cardinals*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>5.0</span></span><td>Panthers<br /><span class='data'>-6</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Ravens @<br>Steelers<td>Steelers<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0762</span></span><td>Ravens*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>2.4</span></span><td>Steelers<br /><span class='data'>-3</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Lions @<br>Cowboys<td>Cowboys*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0480</span></span><td>Cowboys<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>3.3</span></span><td>Cowboys<br /><span class='data'>-7½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Bengals @<br>Colts<td>Colts*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0116</span></span><td>Colts<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>3.7</span></span><td>Colts<br /><span class='data'>-3½</span>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-picks-2014-week-WildCard')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>We could (theoretically) see the two longest <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2013/01/nfl-brief-history-of-playoffs-by-team_27.html'>active streaks
without a playoff win</a> end this week. The Bengals (1990) and
Lions (1991) are the two active franchises that have gone the
longest without a playoff win.</p>
<p>By comparison, the next longest streak among teams in the
playoffs belongs to the Panthers, who last won a
playoff game in 2005.</p>
<li><p>Ryan Lindley actually looked... well, just bad against the
49ers last week (as opposed to looking completely awful against
the Seahawks). If he can avoid turnovers, the Cardinals
will have a chance.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the Panthers are riding a 4-game winning
streak thanks largely to their defense, and if they keep that up,
the Panthers will have their first playoff win in 9 years.</p>
<li><p>The Ravens' offense has actually been pretty good this year,
with Joe Flacco rather quietly having one of the best seasons of
his career, throwing 27 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. If
the Ravens' defense can get on a roll, they could actually make a
run in the playoffs.</p>
<li><p>On the other hand, the Ravens put up that ugly loss to the
Texans just a couple weeks ago, gave up 34 points to the Chargers
in late November and 43 points to the Steelers in early
November. So if the offense or defense falters, they'll very
likely be done in short order.</p>
<li><p>I must've linked this before, but it bears
repeating. <a href='http://pfref.com/tiny/vRWDa'>The Lions
haven't beat a team with a winning record on the road since
2010</a>. Of course a lot of things have gone into that streak
over the seasons. One of the Lions' big problems this year has
been a lack of productions on offense. In four of their losses
they haven't scored more than 14 points.</p>
<p>They will almost certainly have to do better than that against
the Cowboys, whose losses have mostly come when their opponents have
scored at least 28 points.</p>
<li><p>The Bengals-Colts game is a rematch of a game that was one of
the Bengals' ugliest losses of the season, a 27-0 shutout in week
7. And while the Colts are another team that haven't done well on
the road against good teams, they've been very good at home this
year, losing only to the Eagles and Patriots.</p>
<p>Especially with AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham hurt, I think the
Bengals just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the
Colts, so unless the Colts just faceplant this game, the Bengals
playoff drought is going to last another year.</p>
</ul></div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-47103379199473001072014-12-29T10:49:00.002-07:002014-12-29T10:49:59.964-07:00NFL Week 17 Pick Results<div class='fspi'>
<p>Winning team in bold.</p>
<p><b>Unanimous Picks</b> (11-3)</p>
<p><b>Right:</b></p>
<blockquote>
<b>Colts</b> @ Titans<br>
<b>Cowboys</b> @ Washington<br>
<b>Saints</b> @ Buccaneers<br>
Raiders @ <b>Broncos</b><br>
Jaguars @ <b>Texans</b><br>
Rams @ <b>Seahawks</b><br>
Browns @ <b>Ravens</b><br>
Bears @ <b>Vikings</b><br>
Chargers @ <b>Chiefs</b><br>
Lions @ <b>Packers</b><br>
Bengals @ <b>Steelers</b>
</blockquote>
<p><b>Wrong:</b></p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Bills</b> @ Patriots</dt>
<dd>The Pats mostly rested their starters in this game (although for
reasons unexplained Tom Brady played in the first half). The Bills
clinch their first winning season since 2004, when Drew Bledsoe
played his last season for them.
</dd>
<dt><b>Jets</b> @ Dolphins</dt>
<dd>Geno Smith had the best game of his career, throwing three
touchdown passes and catching the Dolphins on a very bad day
defensively. The Dolphins were 1-7 when giving up more than 20
points this season.
</dd>
<dt><b>Panthers</b> @ Falcons</dt>
<dd>The Falcons just couldn't get anything going on offense in this
game. Their longest drive until well into garbage time was 38
yards. That, along with a couple interceptions (both returned for
touchdowns) dug a hole the Falcons had no way out of.
</dd>
</dl>
<p><b>Split Picks:</b> (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)</p>
<dl>
<dt>Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ <b>49ers (Line)</b></dt>
<dd>The Cardinals surprisingly made a game of this, but Lindley's 3
interceptions was just more than the Cardinals were able to
overcome.
</dd>
<dt><b>Eagles (APR, SRS)</b> @ Giants (Line)</dt>
<dd>Actually a relatively close game (and equal on turnovers). But Eli
Manning threw incomplete too many times, the Giants only converted
on 1 of 3 trips in the red zone, had 106 penalty yards, and in the
end, it all added up to a loss for Big Blue.
</dd>
</dl>
<p><b>Totals</b></p>
<p>A nice round of picks to end the regular season on.</p>
<table class='std-data'>
<tr><th><th colspan='5'>This<br>Week
<th colspan='5'>This<br>Season<th>%
<tr><td>APR
<td align='right'> 12<td>-<td align='right'> 4<td><td>
<td align='right'>159<td>-<td align='right'>80<td>-<td>1<td>66.5%
<tr><td>SRS
<td align='right'> 12<td>-<td align='right'> 4<td><td>
<td align='right'>157<td>-<td align='right'>82<td>-<td>1<td>65.6%
<tr><td>Line
<td align='right'> 12<td>-<td align='right'> 4<td><td>
<td align='right'>166<td>-<td align='right'>72<td>-<td>1<td>69.8%
</table>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-81842445430993345282014-12-29T00:49:00.000-07:002014-12-29T00:49:05.642-07:00NFL Week 17 Power Rankings<div class='fspi'>
<table class='std-data' id='fspi-pr-2014-week-17'>
<tr><th class='sortable' title='Sort by spots moved from last week'>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by power index'>Power<br />Index</th><th>W-L</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by margin of victory/defeat'>This Week</th>
<tr class='or'><td> 1 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Seahawks<td><span class='data'>1.0892</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0214)</span><td>12-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 14</span><br>vs Rams
<tr class='er'><td> 2 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Patriots<td><span class='data'>1.0703</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9572)</span><td>12-4<td><span class='data'>Lost by 8</span><br>vs Bills
<tr class='or'><td> 3 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Broncos<td><span class='data'>1.0081</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9978)</span><td>12-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 33</span><br>vs Raiders
<tr class='er'><td> 4 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Packers<td><span class='data'>0.9889</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0090)</span><td>12-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 10</span><br>vs Lions
<tr class='or'><td> 5 (<span class='data'>↑4</span>)<td>Bills<td><span class='data'>0.9843</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0490)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Won by 8</span><br>@ Patriots
<tr class='er'><td> 6 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Steelers<td><span class='data'>0.9790</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0178)</span><td>11-5<td><span class='data'>Won by 10</span><br>vs Bengals
<tr class='or'><td> 7 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Chiefs<td><span class='data'>0.9686</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0044)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Won by 12</span><br>vs Chargers
<tr class='er'><td> 8 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Cowboys<td><span class='data'>0.9476</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0086)</span><td>12-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 27</span><br>@ Washington
<tr class='or'><td> 9 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Cardinals<td><span class='data'>0.9244</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9718)</span><td>11-5<td><span class='data'>Lost by 3</span><br>@ 49ers
<tr class='er'><td> 10 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Colts<td><span class='data'>0.9218</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9904)</span><td>11-5<td><span class='data'>Won by 17</span><br>@ Titans
<tr class='or'><td> 11 (<span class='data'>↑4</span>)<td>Eagles<td><span class='data'>0.9155</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0129)</span><td>10-6<td><span class='data'>Won by 8</span><br>@ Giants
<tr class='er'><td> 12 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Bengals<td><span class='data'>0.9112</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9996)</span><td>10-5-1<td><span class='data'>Lost by 10</span><br>@ Steelers
<tr class='or'><td> 13 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Ravens<td><span class='data'>0.9097</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9925)</span><td>10-6<td><span class='data'>Won by 10</span><br>vs Browns
<tr class='er'><td> 14 (<span class='data'>↓4</span>)<td>Lions<td><span class='data'>0.9042</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9712)</span><td>11-5<td><span class='data'>Lost by 10</span><br>@ Packers
<tr class='or'><td> 15 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Texans<td><span class='data'>0.8860</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9903)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Won by 6</span><br>vs Jaguars
<tr class='er'><td> 16 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Rams<td><span class='data'>0.8802</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9852)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Lost by 14</span><br>@ Seahawks
<tr class='or'><td> 17 (<span class='data'>↓5</span>)<td>Dolphins<td><span class='data'>0.8801</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9531)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Lost by 13</span><br>vs Jets
<tr class='er'><td> 18 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Chargers<td><span class='data'>0.8746</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9825)</span><td>9-7<td><span class='data'>Lost by 12</span><br>@ Chiefs
<tr class='or'><td> 19 (<span class='data'>↑5</span>)<td>Jets<td><span class='data'>0.8475</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0428)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Won by 13</span><br>@ Dolphins
<tr class='er'><td> 20 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Vikings<td><span class='data'>0.8440</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0015)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Won by 4</span><br>vs Bears
<tr class='or'><td> 21 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>49ers<td><span class='data'>0.8419</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0065)</span><td>8-8<td><span class='data'>Won by 3</span><br>vs Cardinals
<tr class='er'><td> 22 (<span class='data'>↓3</span>)<td>Falcons<td><span class='data'>0.8287</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9648)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Lost by 31</span><br>vs Panthers
<tr class='or'><td> 23 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Giants<td><span class='data'>0.8195</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9848)</span><td>6-10<td><span class='data'>Lost by 8</span><br>vs Eagles
<tr class='er'><td> 24 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Raiders<td><span class='data'>0.8182</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9995)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Lost by 33</span><br>@ Broncos
<tr class='or'><td> 25 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Panthers<td><span class='data'>0.8157</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0466)</span><td>7-8-1<td><span class='data'>Won by 31</span><br>@ Falcons
<tr class='er'><td> 26 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Saints<td><span class='data'>0.8005</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9993)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Won by 3</span><br>@ Buccaneers
<tr class='or'><td> 27 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Browns<td><span class='data'>0.7961</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9940)</span><td>7-9<td><span class='data'>Lost by 10</span><br>@ Ravens
<tr class='er'><td> 28 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Bears<td><span class='data'>0.7615</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9876)</span><td>5-11<td><span class='data'>Lost by 4</span><br>@ Vikings
<tr class='or'><td> 29 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Jaguars<td><span class='data'>0.7439</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0092)</span><td>3-13<td><span class='data'>Lost by 6</span><br>@ Texans
<tr class='er'><td> 30 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Buccaneers<td><span class='data'>0.7334</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9869)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Lost by 3</span><br>vs Saints
<tr class='or'><td> 31 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Washington<td><span class='data'>0.7268</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9720)</span><td>4-12<td><span class='data'>Lost by 27</span><br>vs Cowboys
<tr class='er'><td> 32 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Titans<td><span class='data'>0.6698</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9896)</span><td>2-14<td><span class='data'>Lost by 17</span><br>vs Colts
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-pr-2014-week-17')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>The top seeds for both conferences occupy the top four spots in
the rankings.</p>
<li><p>Bills are the highest ranked team out of the playoffs, thanks
in part to a 4-spot bump on beating the nothing-to-play-for
Patriots.</p>
<li><p>On the one hand, I feel like #6 is to high for a Steelers team
with ugly losses to the Bucs, Jets, and Saints. On the other hand,
pretty much everyone below them has at least a couple ugly losses
on their record, so I can't really make the case that they should
be ranked lower either.</p>
<p>Maybe the real observation is that after the top four teams,
there's a pretty steep drop off in quality.</p>
<li><p>Unsurprisingly, the 7-8-1 Panthers are the lowest-ranked
playoff team. Of the rest, the Lions are lowest ranked at #14,
perhaps thanks some close wins over the Bucs and Vikings, followed
with a road loss to the Packers.</p>
<li><p>Could the Panthers actually get on a run in the playoffs? After a
streak of games where they were 1-8-1 from mid September to late
November, they've run off a series of 4 wins. Not exaclty against
the class of the league, but still better than anyone else in the
NFC South can claim.</p>
<li><p>The Seahawks clinch the #1 seed in the NFC for the second
season in a row, the first time it's done back-to-back since the
Eagles did it three times, 2002-2004. They certainly seem to be in
a good position to be the first defending Super Bowl champion to
win a playoff game the following season since the Patriots did it
in 2005.</p>
</ul>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-9984510812190528582014-12-24T02:24:00.002-07:002014-12-24T02:27:15.730-07:00NFL Week 17 Game Picks<div class='fspi'><table class='std-data' id='fspi-picks-2014-week-17'>
<tr><th>Game<th class='sortable' title='Sort by ρ'>APR<th class='sortable' title='Sort by δ'>SRS<th class='sortable' title='Sort by line value'>Line
<tr class='or'><td>Colts @<br>Titans<td>Colts<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.3751</span></span><td>Colts*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>16.3</span></span><td>Colts<br /><span class='data'>-7</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Cowboys @<br>Washington<td>Cowboys<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.2567</span></span><td>Cowboys*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>12.5</span></span><td>Cowboys<br /><span class='data'>-6½</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Raiders @<br>Broncos<td>Broncos<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.2343</span></span><td>Broncos<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>16.8</span></span><td>Broncos<br /><span class='data'>-16</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Jaguars @<br>Texans<td>Texans<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.2139</span></span><td>Texans<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>12.9</span></span><td>Texans<br /><span class='data'>-9½</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Rams @<br>Seahawks<td>Seahawks<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1936</span></span><td>Seahawks<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>9.7</span></span><td>Seahawks<br /><span class='data'>-13</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Bills @<br>Patriots<td>Patriots<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1917</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>7.8</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='data'>-3½</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Browns @<br>Ravens<td>Ravens<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1445</span></span><td>Ravens<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>8.4</span></span><td>Ravens<br /><span class='data'>-8½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Cardinals @<br>49ers<td>Cardinals<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1372</span></span><td>Cardinals*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>3.8</span></span><td>49ers<br /><span class='data'>-6</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Jets @<br>Dolphins<td>Dolphins<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1361</span></span><td>Dolphins<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>10.2</span></span><td>Dolphins<br /><span class='data'>-5½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Panthers @<br>Falcons<td>Falcons*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1021</span></span><td>Falcons<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>3.1</span></span><td>Falcons<br /><span class='data'>-3½</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Bears @<br>Vikings<td>Vikings<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0931</span></span><td>Vikings<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>5.3</span></span><td>Vikings<br /><span class='data'>-6½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Eagles @<br>Giants<td>Eagles<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0861</span></span><td>Eagles*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>5.1</span></span><td>Giants<br /><span class='data'>-3</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Chargers @<br>Chiefs<td>Chiefs<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0832</span></span><td>Chiefs<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>2.7</span></span><td>Chiefs<br /><span class='data'>-2½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Saints @<br>Buccaneers<td>Saints<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0780</span></span><td>Saints*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>7.2</span></span><td>Saints<br /><span class='data'>-4</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Bengals @<br>Steelers<td>Steelers*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0552</span></span><td>Steelers<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>0.3</span></span><td>Steelers<br /><span class='data'>-3</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Lions @<br>Packers<td>Packers<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0525</span></span><td>Packers<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>5.7</span></span><td>Packers<br /><span class='data'>-7½</span>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-picks-2014-week-17')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>A surprising amount of agreement for week 17. But most teams
have something to play for, only the Patriots and Colts have
clinched their respective seeds. Barring some unlikely
scenarios, the Cowboys will have the 3 seed in the NFC, and may
choose to rest their starters in anticipation of playing on Wild
Card weekend.</p>
<li><p>The Lions' center Dominic Raiola has been suspended for a game,
so barring a last-minute stay won't play on Sunday. That's
bad news for the Lions, especially if the Packers' pass rush can
continue where they left off last week.</p>
<li><p>The Cardinals will reportedly start Logan Thomas as quarterback
which... well, it can't be as bad as Ryan Lindley, right? Thomas
didn't look like much in relief of Drew Stanton back in week 5,
but the 49ers are not as good as the Broncos, and this time
Thomas will have a week of practice time to get ready.</p>
<li><p>I'm trying to decide if the Line is right to pick the Giants
this week. The Eagles really fell apart last week against an
opponent they should've beaten with ease, now they're facing another
opponent they really should be able to beat. I think it's probably
gonna go like last week: whoever wins the turnover battle wins the
game.</p>
<li><p>If the Panthers are going to have a chance this week, their
defense is gonna have to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy
White, and Steven Jackson. The Falcons should win easily if this
game is a battle of who can score the most points on the others
bad defense.</p>
</ul></div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-49393487738601688702014-12-23T09:31:00.000-07:002014-12-24T02:10:06.715-07:00NFL Week 16 Pick Results<div class='fspi'>
<p>Winning team in bold.</p>
<p><b>Unanimous Picks</b> (6-6)</p>
<p><b>Right:</b></p>
<blockquote>
<b>Patriots</b> @ Jets<br>
<b>Packers</b> @ Buccaneers<br>
<b>Lions</b> @ Bears<br>
<b>Seahawks</b> @ Cardinals<br>
Titans @ <b>Jaguars</b><br>
Vikings @ <b>Dolphins</b><br>
</blockquote>
<p><b>Wrong:</b></p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Falcons</b> @ Saints</dt>
<dd>Somehow, the Saints just couldn't move the ball against what has
been a pretty bad Falcons defense. The Saints had three drives
longer than 31 yards, two of which ended with a lost fumble.
</dd>
<dt><b>Giants</b> @ Rams</dt>
<dd>Odell Beckham is an amazing player, and when the Giants' don't turn the ball
over, they can still be a dangerous team. This is the first time since the final
week of the 2012 season that the Giants' haven't turned the ball over.
</dd>
<dt>Bills @ <b>Raiders</b></dt>
<dd>Trap game? Let down? Whatever you call it, a week after holding
the Packers to just 13 points, the Bills defense gave up 26 points
to the Raiders who have scored more than that just once this
season. Meanwhile the Bills could only rush for a season-low 13
yards, and Kyle Orton is just not the kind of quarterback that can
win without support from his defense and running game, even against the likes of the Raiders.
</dd>
<dt>Eagles @ <b>Washington</b><dt>
<dd>I'm not sure there's anything to say here besides what I noted
in <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2014/12/nfl-week-16-power-rankings.html'>the
power rankings</a>, that the Eagles have mostly lost when they don't
score at least 30 points. Counting this game, Washington has only
made it to 27 points four times this season.
</dd>
<dt>Ravens @ <b>Texans</b><dt>
<dd>The Texans defense came to play in this game, holding the Ravens
to 33 yards rushing, intercepting Joe
Flacco 3 times, and holding him under 200 yards passing on 50(!)
attempts. When the Texans' defense plays like that, Case Keenum is
all they need for a quarterback.
</dd>
<dt>Broncos @ <b>Bengals</b><dt>
<dd>Besides Peyton Manning's struggles, the Broncos defense gave up
207 yards rushing (mostly to Jeremy Hill) and 206 kick and punt
return yards. Andy Dalton didn't look like much in this game, but
with that kind of support, he didn't need to.</dd>
</dl>
<p><b>Split Picks:</b> (APR 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)</p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Chargers (APR, SRS)</b> @ 49ers (Line)</dt>
<dd>Either way this game went, you could blame turnovers and
breakdowns on defense. As much as anything, the 49ers' season-long
inability to score in the second half opened the door for the
Chargers to come back and win this game.
</dd>
<dt>Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ <b>Steelers (Line)</b></dt>
<dd>The Steelers' defense had perhaps their best game of the season,
holding the Chiefs to just 12 points. The Chiefs, for their part,
persued an odd strategy of settling for field goals in spite of the
fact they were playing from behind for most of the game. As I've
noted before, the Chiefs don't have a quick strike defense, so
especially when they're playing behind, they really need to get
touchdowns to have a chance.</dd>
<dt>Browns (APR, SRS) @ <b>Panthers (Line)</b></dt>
<dd>Johnny Manziel looked every bit the green rookie in this
game. When Brian Hoyer came in in relief, the Browns were down a
touchdown. He was better than Manziel, but not by nearly enough,
especially with only 84 rushing yards in support (and 19 of them
coming from Hoyer himself).
</dd>
<dt>Colts (APR, SRS) @ <b>Cowboys (Line)</b></dt>
<dd>If there's anything that went right for the Colts in this game, I
didn't see it. Their first have drives result in a turnover on
downs, three punts, and a red zone interception. Meanwhile, the
Cowboys scored touchdowns on their first four possessions, and the
game was pretty much out of reach by halftime.
</dd>
</dl>
<p><b>Totals</b></p>
<p>A real clunker of a week, especially for the algorithms.</p>
<table class='std-data'>
<tr><th><th colspan='5'>This<br>Week
<th colspan='5'>This<br>Season<th>%
<tr><td>APR
<td align='right'> 7<td>-<td align='right'> 9<td><td>
<td align='right'>147<td>-<td align='right'>76<td>-<td>1<td>65.9%
<tr><td>SRS
<td align='right'> 7<td>-<td align='right'> 9<td><td>
<td align='right'>145<td>-<td align='right'>78<td>-<td>1<td>65.0%
<tr><td>Line
<td align='right'> 9<td>-<td align='right'> 7<td><td>
<td align='right'>154<td>-<td align='right'>68<td>-<td>1<td>69.4%
</table>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-9304557126274131942014-12-22T23:31:00.002-07:002014-12-22T23:31:48.803-07:00NFL Week 16 Power Rankings<div class='fspi'>
<table class='std-data' id='fspi-pr-2014-week-16'>
<tr><th class='sortable' title='Sort by spots moved from last week'>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by power index'>Power<br />Index</th><th>W-L</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by margin of victory/defeat'>This Week</th>
<tr class='or'><td> 1 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Patriots<td><span class='data'>1.1182</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9758)</span><td>12-3<td><span class='data'>Won by 1</span><br>@ Jets
<tr class='er'><td> 2 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Seahawks<td><span class='data'>1.0664</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0366)</span><td>11-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 29</span><br>@ Cardinals
<tr class='or'><td> 3 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Broncos<td><span class='data'>1.0103</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9447)</span><td>11-4<td><span class='data'>Lost by 9</span><br>@ Bengals
<tr class='er'><td> 4 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Packers<td><span class='data'>0.9800</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0051)</span><td>11-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 17</span><br>@ Buccaneers
<tr class='or'><td> 5 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Chiefs<td><span class='data'>0.9643</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9603)</span><td>8-7<td><span class='data'>Lost by 8</span><br>@ Steelers
<tr class='er'><td> 6 (<span class='data'>↑7</span>)<td>Steelers<td><span class='data'>0.9620</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0389)</span><td>10-5<td><span class='data'>Won by 8</span><br>vs Chiefs
<tr class='or'><td> 7 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Cardinals<td><span class='data'>0.9512</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9590)</span><td>11-4<td><span class='data'>Lost by 29</span><br>vs Seahawks
<tr class='er'><td> 8 (<span class='data'>↑7</span>)<td>Cowboys<td><span class='data'>0.9396</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0354)</span><td>11-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 35</span><br>vs Colts
<tr class='or'><td> 9 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Bills<td><span class='data'>0.9383</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9752)</span><td>8-7<td><span class='data'>Lost by 2</span><br>@ Raiders
<tr class='er'><td> 10 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Lions<td><span class='data'>0.9311</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9872)</span><td>11-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 6</span><br>@ Bears
<tr class='or'><td> 11 (<span class='data'>↓3</span>)<td>Colts<td><span class='data'>0.9307</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9813)</span><td>10-5<td><span class='data'>Lost by 35</span><br>@ Cowboys
<tr class='er'><td> 12 (<span class='data'>↓3</span>)<td>Dolphins<td><span class='data'>0.9234</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9782)</span><td>8-7<td><span class='data'>Won by 2</span><br>vs Vikings
<tr class='or'><td> 13 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Ravens<td><span class='data'>0.9166</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9821)</span><td>9-6<td><span class='data'>Lost by 12</span><br>@ Texans
<tr class='er'><td> 14 (<span class='data'>↑3</span>)<td>Bengals<td><span class='data'>0.9116</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0443)</span><td>10-4-1<td><span class='data'>Won by 9</span><br>vs Broncos
<tr class='or'><td> 15 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Eagles<td><span class='data'>0.9038</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9827)</span><td>9-6<td><span class='data'>Lost by 3</span><br>@ Washington
<tr class='er'><td> 16 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Texans<td><span class='data'>0.8947</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0344)</span><td>8-7<td><span class='data'>Won by 12</span><br>vs Ravens
<tr class='or'><td> 17 (<span class='data'>↓6</span>)<td>Rams<td><span class='data'>0.8934</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9539)</span><td>6-9<td><span class='data'>Lost by 9</span><br>vs Giants
<tr class='er'><td> 18 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Chargers<td><span class='data'>0.8902</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9819)</span><td>9-6<td><span class='data'>Won by 3</span><br>@ 49ers
<tr class='or'><td> 19 (<span class='data'>↑3</span>)<td>Falcons<td><span class='data'>0.8590</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0538)</span><td>6-9<td><span class='data'>Won by 16</span><br>@ Saints
<tr class='er'><td> 20 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Vikings<td><span class='data'>0.8428</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0143)</span><td>6-9<td><span class='data'>Lost by 2</span><br>@ Dolphins
<tr class='or'><td> 21 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>49ers<td><span class='data'>0.8365</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9766)</span><td>7-8<td><span class='data'>Lost by 3</span><br>vs Chargers
<tr class='er'><td> 22 (<span class='data'>↑4</span>)<td>Giants<td><span class='data'>0.8322</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0550)</span><td>6-9<td><span class='data'>Won by 9</span><br>@ Rams
<tr class='or'><td> 23 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Raiders<td><span class='data'>0.8185</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0073)</span><td>3-12<td><span class='data'>Won by 2</span><br>vs Bills
<tr class='er'><td> 24 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jets<td><span class='data'>0.8127</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0152)</span><td>3-12<td><span class='data'>Lost by 1</span><br>vs Patriots
<tr class='or'><td> 25 (<span class='data'>↓5</span>)<td>Saints<td><span class='data'>0.8011</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9587)</span><td>6-9<td><span class='data'>Lost by 16</span><br>vs Falcons
<tr class='er'><td> 26 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Browns<td><span class='data'>0.8009</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0026)</span><td>7-8<td><span class='data'>Lost by 4</span><br>@ Panthers
<tr class='or'><td> 27 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Panthers<td><span class='data'>0.7794</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0105)</span><td>6-8-1<td><span class='data'>Won by 4</span><br>vs Browns
<tr class='er'><td> 28 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Bears<td><span class='data'>0.7710</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9946)</span><td>5-10<td><span class='data'>Lost by 6</span><br>vs Lions
<tr class='or'><td> 29 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Washington<td><span class='data'>0.7477</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0258)</span><td>4-11<td><span class='data'>Won by 3</span><br>vs Eagles
<tr class='er'><td> 30 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Buccaneers<td><span class='data'>0.7431</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9974)</span><td>2-13<td><span class='data'>Lost by 17</span><br>vs Packers
<tr class='or'><td> 31 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jaguars<td><span class='data'>0.7371</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0256)</span><td>3-12<td><span class='data'>Won by 8</span><br>vs Titans
<tr class='er'><td> 32 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Titans<td><span class='data'>0.6769</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0061)</span><td>2-13<td><span class='data'>Lost by 8</span><br>@ Jaguars
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-pr-2014-week-16')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>This season, the Eagles are 1-6 when they don't score at least
30 points. Which doesn't say a lot for their defense.</p>
<li><p>How good is the Packers defense? They had that ugly second half
breakdown against the Falcons a couple weeks ago, but they also
held the Buccaneers (yeah, I know, they're 2-13) to season lows on
points scored, first downs, and yards from scrimmage. They also
sacked Josh McCown 7 times, most all year.</p>
<li><p>Remember
how <a href='http://fspi.blogspot.com/2014/12/nfl-week-16-game-picks.html'>I
said in the game picks</a> that the Colts were bad on the road
against good teams? Yeah, that. The Colts had 1 rushing yard on
Sunday. One.</p>
<li><p>That was a really ugly game for Peyton Manning Monday night. He
hasn't had a 4 interception outing <a href='http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201012050clt.htm'>since 2010</a>.
<li><p>The Saints have lost 5 home games for the first time since
2007, Payton and Brees's second season with the team.</p>
<li><p>With the Bills' elimination from the playoffs this week, their
streak of longest active playoff appearance drought will continue
for at least another
year. The <a href='http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_City_Miracle'>Music
City Miracle game</a> remains the Bills' last playoff
appearance.</p>
</ul>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-23705911706576346142014-12-17T01:44:00.002-07:002014-12-18T13:50:51.792-07:00NFL Week 16 Game Picks<div class='fspi'><table class='std-data' id='fspi-picks-2014-week-16'>
<tr><th>Game<th class='sortable' title='Sort by ρ'>APR<th class='sortable' title='Sort by δ'>SRS<th class='sortable' title='Sort by line value'>Line
<tr class='or'><td>Patriots @<br>Jets<td>Patriots<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.4314</span></span><td>Patriots*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>20.6</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='data'>-10</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Packers @<br>Buccaneers<td>Packers<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.3085</span></span><td>Packers*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>18.4</span></span><td>Packers<br /><span class='data'>-10</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Eagles @<br>Washington<td>Eagles<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.2619</span></span><td>Eagles*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>13.4</span></span><td>Eagles<br /><span class='data'>-7½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Broncos @<br>Bengals<td>Broncos<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.2250</span></span><td>Broncos*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>10.2</span></span><td>Broncos<br /><span class='data'>-3</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Lions @<br>Bears<td>Lions<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.2168</span></span><td>Lions*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>9.8</span></span><td>Lions<br /><span class='data'>-7</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Giants @<br>Rams<td>Rams<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1874</span></span><td>Rams<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>2.9</span></span><td>Rams<br /><span class='data'>-5</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Bills @<br>Raiders<td>Bills<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1841</span></span><td>Bills*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>14.0</span></span><td>Bills<br /><span class='data'>-6</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Vikings @<br>Dolphins<td>Dolphins<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1360</span></span><td>Dolphins<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>6.4</span></span><td>Dolphins<br /><span class='data'>-6½</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Chiefs @<br>Steelers<td>Chiefs*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0845</span></span><td>Chiefs*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>5.6</span></span><td>Steelers<br /><span class='data'>-3</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Ravens @<br>Texans<td>Ravens<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0791</span></span><td>Ravens*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>4.6</span></span><td>Ravens<br /><span class='data'>-5</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Titans @<br>Jaguars<td>Jaguars<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0683</span></span><td>Jaguars<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>0.5</span></span><td>Jaguars<br /><span class='data'>-3</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Chargers @<br>49ers<td>Chargers<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0585</span></span><td>Chargers*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>4.5</span></span><td>49ers<br /><span class='data'>-2</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Colts @<br>Cowboys<td>Colts<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0452</span></span><td>Colts*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>4.9</span></span><td>Cowboys<br /><span class='data'>-2½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Seahawks @<br>Cardinals<td>Seahawks*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0372</span></span><td>Seahawks*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>3.7</span></span><td>Seahawks<br /><span class='data'>-8</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Browns @<br>Panthers<td>Browns<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0356</span></span><td>Browns*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>2.0</span></span><td>Panthers<br /><span class='data'>-2½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Falcons @<br>Saints<td>Saints*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0251</span></span><td>Saints<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>1.0</span></span><td>Saints<br /><span class='data'>-5½</span>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-picks-2014-week-16')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>No line for Browns @ Panthers. Maybe waiting to see if Cam
Newton will play? I'll update later on in the week. <b>Update:</b> done.</p>
<li><p>A lot of the games this week have playoff implications. Then
there's Titans @ Jaguars which... has draft implications.</p>
<li><p>Seahawks @ Cardinals is for the NFC West, and probably the top
seed in the NFC. The Cardinals are reduced to starting erstwhile
3rd string backup Ryan Lindley. If the Cardinals' defense can hold
their opponent to 6 points again, they'll have a chance. But I
think if the Seahawks get 14 points on the board, that could be
game over for the Cards.</p>
<li><p>With the Texans reduced to starting either fourth year backup
Thad Lewis or off-the-street pickup Case Keenum, I'm a little
surprised the Ravens are only getting 5 points in this game. The
Ravens have quietly put together one of the highest scoring
offenses in the league this season, and this has the feel of a
game where the Ravens may only need a couple touchdowns to secure
a 5 point margin of victory.</p>
<li><p>I'm not really sure why the Line is taking the 49ers
here. They're out of the playoffs, they're riddled with injuries,
and coming off a string of bitter losses. Meanwhile, the Chargers
are still alive for one of the AFC wildcard spots, and desperately
need a win to stay in the race. I think unless the Chargers fall
flat on their faces, this is a game they should win.</p>
<li><p>I'm tempted to say the Colts have a real chance for an upset
at the Cowboys, except for that
whole <a href='http://pfref.com/tiny/yx9LW'>Colts usually lose big
on the road against good opponents</a> thing that seemed to start
when Andrew Luck came to town. But DeMarco Murray will either be
out or playing hurt, so the Cowboys won't be at their full
strength, either.</p>
</ul></div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-62271054811311256862014-12-16T09:22:00.003-07:002014-12-16T09:22:40.992-07:00NFL Week 15 Pick Results<div class='fspi'>
<p>Winning team in bold.</p>
<p><b>Unanimous Picks</b> (12-2)</p>
<p><b>Right:</b></p>
<blockquote>
<b>Steelers</b> @ Falcons<br>
<b>Bengals</b> @ Browns<br>
<b>Broncos</b> @ Chargers<br>
<b>Jets</b> @ Titans<br>
Jaguars @ <b>Ravens</b><br>
Raiders @ <b>Chiefs</b><br>
Dolphins @ <b>Patriots</b><br>
Texans @ <b>Colts</b><br>
Washington @ <b>Giants</b><br>
Buccaneers @ <b>Panthers</b><br>
Vikings @ <b>Lions</b><br>
49ers @ <b>Seahawks</b><br>
</blockquote>
<p><b>Wrong:</b></p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Cowboys</b> @ Eagles</dt>
<dd>Some of the biggest flaws of the Eagles were on display in this
game: they turn the ball over a lot. Their defense isn't very good
against the pass. And when their offense isn't scoring, their fast
paced style is more of a liability than an asset.</dd>
<dd>And while the Cowboys didn't play the most amazing game either,
they only turned the ball over once, and were able to take advantage
when the Eagles gave them short fields.</dd>
<dt>Packers @ <b>Bills</b></dt>
<dd>What an ugly game for the Packers' offense. The Bills' defense
deserves some credit, but this is the first time Rodgers has been
held under a 44% completion rate since he took over from Favre.
</dd>
<dd>The Packers' defense played well, and the running game was
effective. But turnovers, too many incomplete passes, botched punt
coverage, and a final fumble that resulted in a safety added up more
than they were able to overcome. Perhaps the most surprising thing
about this game is the Packers had a chance to win late, in spite of
all the mistakes they made.
<dd></dd>
</dl>
<p><b>Split Picks:</b> (APR 1-1, SRS 2-0, Line 2-0)</p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Cardinals (APR, SRS)</b> @ Rams (Line)</dt>
<dd>Rumors of the demise of the Cardinals' defense are apparently
greatly exaggerated. They absolutely shut down the Rams' offense
(which, okay, is maybe not the biggest test in the world). But they
only allowed the Rams' into the red zone twice, holding them to
field goals each time.
<dd>And while the Cardinals' offense didn't light up the scoreboard
either, they did manage to put the game out of reach of the Rams'
struggling offense.
</dd>
<dt><b>Saints (SRS, Line)</b> @ Bears (APR)</dt>
<dd>Wow, the Bears seem like a broken team at this point. A defense
that struggles to stop anybody and a desultory offense is a really
bad combination. I wonder if they'll win another game this year?
</dd>
</dl>
<p><b>Totals</b></p>
<p>Another very nice week of picks, and an unusual case of SRS gaining
a spot on APR.</p>
<table class='std-data'>
<tr><th><th colspan='5'>This<br>Week
<th colspan='5'>This<br>Season<th>%
<tr><td>APR
<td align='right'> 13<td>-<td align='right'> 3<td><td>
<td align='right'>140<td>-<td align='right'>67<td>-<td>1<td>67.6%
<tr><td>SRS
<td align='right'> 14<td>-<td align='right'> 2<td><td>
<td align='right'>138<td>-<td align='right'>69<td>-<td>1<td>66.6%
<tr><td>Line
<td align='right'> 14<td>-<td align='right'> 2<td><td>
<td align='right'>146<td>-<td align='right'>61<td>-<td>1<td>70.4%
</table>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-752963255454235712014-12-16T01:19:00.002-07:002014-12-16T01:19:18.833-07:00NFL Week 15 Power Rankings<div class='fspi'>
<table class='std-data' id='fspi-pr-2014-week-15'>
<tr><th class='sortable' title='Sort by spots moved from last week'>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by power index'>Power<br />Index</th><th>W-L</th><th class='sortable' title='Sort by margin of victory/defeat'>This Week</th>
<tr class='or'><td> 1 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Patriots<td><span class='data'>1.1459</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0187)</span><td>11-3<td><span class='data'>Won by 28</span><br>vs Dolphins
<tr class='er'><td> 2 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Broncos<td><span class='data'>1.0694</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0108)</span><td>11-3<td><span class='data'>Won by 12</span><br>@ Chargers
<tr class='or'><td> 3 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Seahawks<td><span class='data'>1.0287</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0118)</span><td>10-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 10</span><br>vs 49ers
<tr class='er'><td> 4 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Chiefs<td><span class='data'>1.0042</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0057)</span><td>8-6<td><span class='data'>Won by 18</span><br>vs Raiders
<tr class='or'><td> 5 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Cardinals<td><span class='data'>0.9918</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0128)</span><td>11-3<td><span class='data'>Won by 6</span><br>@ Rams
<tr class='er'><td> 6 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Packers<td><span class='data'>0.9750</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9746)</span><td>10-4<td><span class='data'>Lost by 8</span><br>@ Bills
<tr class='or'><td> 7 (<span class='data'>↑4</span>)<td>Bills<td><span class='data'>0.9622</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0280)</span><td>8-6<td><span class='data'>Won by 8</span><br>vs Packers
<tr class='er'><td> 8 (<span class='data'>↑4</span>)<td>Colts<td><span class='data'>0.9485</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0136)</span><td>10-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 7</span><br>vs Texans
<tr class='or'><td> 9 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Dolphins<td><span class='data'>0.9439</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9874)</span><td>7-7<td><span class='data'>Lost by 28</span><br>@ Patriots
<tr class='er'><td> 10 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Lions<td><span class='data'>0.9432</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9924)</span><td>10-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 2</span><br>vs Vikings
<tr class='or'><td> 11 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Rams<td><span class='data'>0.9366</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0027)</span><td>6-8<td><span class='data'>Lost by 6</span><br>vs Cardinals
<tr class='er'><td> 12 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Ravens<td><span class='data'>0.9333</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9955)</span><td>9-5<td><span class='data'>Won by 8</span><br>vs Jaguars
<tr class='or'><td> 13 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Steelers<td><span class='data'>0.9260</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0350)</span><td>9-5<td><span class='data'>Won by 7</span><br>@ Falcons
<tr class='er'><td> 14 (<span class='data'>↓6</span>)<td>Eagles<td><span class='data'>0.9198</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9675)</span><td>9-5<td><span class='data'>Lost by 11</span><br>vs Cowboys
<tr class='or'><td> 15 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Cowboys<td><span class='data'>0.9075</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0206)</span><td>10-4<td><span class='data'>Won by 11</span><br>@ Eagles
<tr class='er'><td> 16 (<span class='data'>↓2</span>)<td>Chargers<td><span class='data'>0.9066</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9833)</span><td>8-6<td><span class='data'>Lost by 12</span><br>vs Broncos
<tr class='or'><td> 17 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Bengals<td><span class='data'>0.8730</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0421)</span><td>9-4-1<td><span class='data'>Won by 30</span><br>@ Browns
<tr class='er'><td> 18 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Texans<td><span class='data'>0.8649</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9993)</span><td>7-7<td><span class='data'>Lost by 7</span><br>@ Colts
<tr class='or'><td> 19 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>49ers<td><span class='data'>0.8565</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9950)</span><td>7-7<td><span class='data'>Lost by 10</span><br>@ Seahawks
<tr class='er'><td> 20 (<span class='data'>↑5</span>)<td>Saints<td><span class='data'>0.8356</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0329)</span><td>6-8<td><span class='data'>Won by 16</span><br>@ Bears
<tr class='or'><td> 21 (<span class='data'>↓1</span>)<td>Vikings<td><span class='data'>0.8309</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0077)</span><td>6-8<td><span class='data'>Lost by 2</span><br>@ Lions
<tr class='er'><td> 22 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Falcons<td><span class='data'>0.8151</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9893)</span><td>5-9<td><span class='data'>Lost by 7</span><br>vs Steelers
<tr class='or'><td> 23 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Raiders<td><span class='data'>0.8126</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9974)</span><td>2-12<td><span class='data'>Lost by 18</span><br>@ Chiefs
<tr class='er'><td> 24 (<span class='data'>↑2</span>)<td>Jets<td><span class='data'>0.8006</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0156)</span><td>3-11<td><span class='data'>Won by 5</span><br>@ Titans
<tr class='or'><td> 25 (<span class='data'>↓4</span>)<td>Browns<td><span class='data'>0.7988</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9691)</span><td>7-7<td><span class='data'>Lost by 30</span><br>vs Bengals
<tr class='er'><td> 26 (<span class='data'>↑1</span>)<td>Giants<td><span class='data'>0.7888</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0077)</span><td>5-9<td><span class='data'>Won by 11</span><br>vs Washington
<tr class='or'><td> 27 (<span class='data'>↓3</span>)<td>Bears<td><span class='data'>0.7752</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9554)</span><td>5-9<td><span class='data'>Lost by 16</span><br>vs Saints
<tr class='er'><td> 28 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Panthers<td><span class='data'>0.7713</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0024)</span><td>5-8-1<td><span class='data'>Won by 2</span><br>vs Buccaneers
<tr class='or'><td> 29 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Buccaneers<td><span class='data'>0.7451</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9951)</span><td>2-12<td><span class='data'>Lost by 2</span><br>@ Panthers
<tr class='er'><td> 30 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Washington<td><span class='data'>0.7289</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9911)</span><td>3-11<td><span class='data'>Lost by 11</span><br>@ Giants
<tr class='or'><td> 31 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Jaguars<td><span class='data'>0.7187</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 1.0217)</span><td>2-12<td><span class='data'>Lost by 8</span><br>@ Ravens
<tr class='er'><td> 32 (<span class='data'>-</span>)<td>Titans<td><span class='data'>0.6728</span><br><span class='pr-lw'>(LW × 0.9976)</span><td>2-12<td><span class='data'>Lost by 5</span><br>vs Jets
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-pr-2014-week-15')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>The top teams seem to be pretty reasonable right now. Chiefs
are maybe a little high, but I don't think I'd drop them very far,
either.</p>
<li><p>Looking at the bottom 10, the Browns are the only team without
at least 8½ losses, but the way they've been playing lately
(1-4 in their last 5) they don't really seem that out of
place.</p>
<li><p>The Eagles are 1-3 this season when they turn the ball over 4
times. Which is remarkable since 1) they actually won one of those
games, and 2) they've had four 4-turnover games this season. The
Raiders have three 4-turnover games, and they're the only other
team in the league with more than two.</p>
<p>The Eagles still have a chance to win the NFC East (and a better
chance with Cowboys' RB DeMarco Murray hurt). But with the kind of
turnovers they've been having on offense, they're certainly not
set up to make a deep run if they do make it in.</p>
<li><p>Congratulations to the Cardinals, who have clinched a playoff
spot, and thus avoid becoming the first team (at least since the
1970 merger) to go 9-1 and miss the playoffs (depends on how you
measure who came closest, a number of teams made it to 7-1 and
missed the playoffs, and
the <a href='http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/1993.htm'>'93
Dolphins made it to 9-2 before losing out and missing the
playoffs</a>).
<li><p>Presumably the Texans will rally around <s>Ryan
Fitzpatrick</s> <s>Ryan Mallet</s> <s>Ryan Fitzpatrick</s> <s>Tom
Savage</s> er... Case Keenum? They're really giving the Cardinals
a run for the money as franchise with the most pathetic
quarterback situation.</p>
</ul>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-15891157632124182732014-12-10T10:31:00.002-07:002014-12-10T10:31:56.788-07:00NFL Week 15 Game Picks<link rel='stylesheet' type='text/css' href='fspi.css' />
<script src='js/fspi.js'></script>
<div class='fspi'><table class='std-data' id='fspi-picks-2014-week-15'>
<tr><th>Game<th class='sortable' title='Sort by ρ'>APR<th class='sortable' title='Sort by δ'>SRS<th class='sortable' title='Sort by line value'>Line
<tr class='or'><td>Jaguars @<br>Ravens<td>Ravens<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.3327</span></span><td>Ravens<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>18.1</span></span><td>Ravens<br /><span class='data'>-14</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Raiders @<br>Chiefs<td>Chiefs<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.2255</span></span><td>Chiefs<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>14.3</span></span><td>Chiefs<br /><span class='data'>-10½</span>
<tr class='or'><td>49ers @<br>Seahawks<td>Seahawks<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1812</span></span><td>Seahawks<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>9.1</span></span><td>Seahawks<br /><span class='data'>-10</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Dolphins @<br>Patriots<td>Patriots<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1766</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>6.0</span></span><td>Patriots<br /><span class='data'>-8</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Jets @<br>Titans<td>Jets<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1688</span></span><td>Jets*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>4.9</span></span><td>Jets<br /><span class='data'>-1</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Vikings @<br>Lions<td>Lions<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1527</span></span><td>Lions<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>4.7</span></span><td>Lions<br /><span class='data'>-8</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Broncos @<br>Chargers<td>Broncos<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.1475</span></span><td>Broncos*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>6.9</span></span><td>Broncos<br /><span class='data'>-4</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Steelers @<br>Falcons<td>Steelers<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0858</span></span><td>Steelers*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>3.4</span></span><td>Steelers<br /><span class='data'>-3</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Texans @<br>Colts<td>Colts*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0811</span></span><td>Colts<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>5.5</span></span><td>Colts<br /><span class='data'>-6½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Cowboys @<br>Eagles<td>Eagles*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0691</span></span><td>Eagles<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>4.3</span></span><td>Eagles<br /><span class='data'>-3</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Packers @<br>Bills<td>Packers*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0688</span></span><td>Packers*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>4.2</span></span><td>Packers<br /><span class='data'>-5</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Washington @<br>Giants<td>Giants*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0644</span></span><td>Giants<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>5.8</span></span><td>Giants<br /><span class='data'>-6½</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Cardinals @<br>Rams<td>Cardinals*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0484</span></span><td>Cardinals*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>3.4</span></span><td>Rams<br /><span class='data'>-4½</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Buccaneers @<br>Panthers<td>Panthers*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0276</span></span><td>Panthers<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>5.1</span></span><td>Panthers<br /><span class='data'>-5½</span>
<tr class='or'><td>Bengals @<br>Browns<td>Bengals<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0163</span></span><td>Bengals*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>0.1</span></span><td>Bengals<br /><span class='data'>-1</span>
<tr class='er'><td>Saints @<br>Bears<td>Bears*<br /><span class='conf'>ρ=<span class='data'>1.0030</span></span><td>Saints*<br /><span class='conf'>δ=<span class='data'>3.3</span></span><td>Saints<br /><span class='data'>-3</span>
</table>
<script type='text/javascript'>fspi_scripts.make_sortable('fspi-picks-2014-week-15')</script>
<p><b>Comments:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><p>Given the situation with Cam Newton, I'm surprised at this
point that there's a line for the Bucs-Panthers game. I guess
bettors figure the Bucs are just that bad.</p>
<li><p>Cowboys @ Eagles will probably decide the NFC East, which
theoretically makes for a good game. But if goes anything like the
first half of this matchup, the game is gonna be over by
halftime.</p>
<li><p>Random stat I just noticed: the AFC North leading Bengals are
the only team in that division with a negative point differential
(points scored - points allowed). In spite of the fact that all
the teams (still) have winning records, the AFC North seems like
one of the weakest divisions in the league.</p>
<p>The Ravens seem like the best team in that division, and it seems
like they've got an easy enough remaining schedule to win out. But
then, I thought them beating the Chargers was an all but sure
thing, too.</p>
<li><p>APR likes the Cardinals over the Rams, which seems like a
mistake to me. Credit HC Jeff Fisher, the Rams have been playing
really tough this season, and given the Cardinals anemic offense,
the Rams could have a shot at their third shut out in a row.</p>
<li><p>APR likes the Bears over the Saints, which seems like a mistake
too. I think the Bears defense is bad enough at this point that
Drew Brees and the Saints offense will score enough points that it
will be one of those games where the Bears are doomed the first
time they have a drive that doesn't end in a touchdown.</p>
<p>On the other hand, I thought the Saints were gonna make short
work of the Panthers last week, so maybe I should just stop trying
to guess what's gonna happen in the NFC South.</p>
<li><p>
<li><p>
</ul></div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390779408989025710.post-37555597294797884302014-12-09T10:38:00.002-07:002014-12-09T10:38:39.504-07:00NFL Week 14 Pick Results<div class='fspi'>
<p>Winning team in bold.</p>
<p><b>Unanimous Picks</b> (10-4)</p>
<p><b>Right:</b></p>
<blockquote>
<b>Cowboys</b> @ Bears<br>
<b>Rams</b> @ Washington<br>
<b>Texans</b> @ Jaguars<br>
<b>Giants</b> @ Titans<br>
<b>Colts</b> @ Browns<br>
<b>Patriots</b> @ Chargers<br>
Buccaneers @ <b>Lions</b><br>
Jets @ <b>Vikings</b><br>
Bills @ <b>Broncos</b><br>
Facons @ <b>Packers</b>
</blockquote>
<p><b>Wrong:</b></p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Panthers</b> @ Saints</dt>
<dd>This was the bad Saints playing in this game. On offense, their
longest drive was just 34 yards until well into garbage time. On
defense, they were mostly unable to stop a Panthers' offense that
hadn't scored more than 21 points in a game since facing the Bengals
two months ago. The Saints have some talented players, but when they
have an off game, they can really stink up the joint.</dd>
<dt><b>Ravens</b> @ Dolphins</dt>
<dd>The Ravens stopped the Dolphins from running. And the Dolphins'
passing game isn't enough to sustain many drives all by itself, and
so the Dolphins were only able to score 13 points in this game. And
while the Dolphins' defense has played well this season, they need
more help than 13 points from their offense to get a win against a
team that can move the ball like the Ravens.
</dd>
<dt><b>Steelers</b> @ Bengals<dt>
<dd>As bad as this looks for the Bengals, most of the damage came on
just two plays. The Bengals lost a fumble that the Steelers turned
into a touchdown. The Steelers subsequent drive consisted of one 94
yard touchdown pass to rookie WR Martavis Bryant. And what had been
a close game through three quarters turned into a blow-out almost in
the blink of an eye.
</dd>
<dt>49ers @ <b>Raiders</b><dt>
<dd>The 49ers defense had some issues in this game, giving up three
long drives for touchdowns. But to my eye, the real problem in this
game was the 49ers offense. A couple turnovers, three field goal
tries (one missed) and a touchdown aren't gonna win many games. And
that's demonostrated in the 49ers record this season. They're 2-6
when they don't score at least 22 points (it's also worth noting
those two wins came in close games against bad NFC East
opponents).
</dl>
<p><b>Split Picks:</b> (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)</p>
<dl>
<dt><b>Seahawks (APR, SRS)</b> @ Eagles (Line)</dt>
<dd>The Eagles' offense just wasn't able to move the ball down the
field. Apart from their second touchdown, their longest drive went
just 25 yards.
</dd>
<dt>Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ <b>Cardinals (Line)</b></dt>
<dd>I thought the Cardinals were in deep trouble after Jamaal Charles
scored his second touchdown of the day to give the Chiefs an 8 point
lead. But the Cardinals' defense played a lot better in this game,
shutting the Chiefs out in the second half (thanks in part to a
controversial fumble ruling) while putting together a couple scoring
drives that put them in the lead.
</dd>
</dl>
<p><b>Totals</b></p>
<table class='std-data'>
<tr><th><th colspan='5'>This<br>Week
<th colspan='5'>This<br>Season<th>%
<tr><td>APR
<td align='right'> 11<td>-<td align='right'> 5<td><td>
<td align='right'>127<td>-<td align='right'>64<td>-<td>1<td>66.4%
<tr><td>SRS
<td align='right'> 11<td>-<td align='right'> 5<td><td>
<td align='right'>124<td>-<td align='right'>67<td>-<td>1<td>64.8%
<tr><td>Line
<td align='right'> 11<td>-<td align='right'> 5<td><td>
<td align='right'>132<td>-<td align='right'>59<td>-<td>1<td>69.0%
</table>
</div>
Dave in Tucsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02591277562652290966noreply@blogger.com