FSPI

NFL Wrapup: Pythagorean Projection vs. Reality

2012-01-27T15:42:00.001-07:00

As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.

Teams are sorted by the magnatude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.

This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.

Team	Actual	Proj.	Diff.	Note
Steelers	12	12.1	-0.1
Dolphins	6	6.2	-0.2
Giants	9	9.2	-0.2
Titans	9	8.5	0.5
Patriots	13	12.3	0.7
Redskins	5	5.9	-0.9
Raiders	8	8.9	-0.9
Cowboys	8	7.0	1.0	Romo healthy all season
Falcons	10	11.2	-1.2
Jaguars	5	6.4	-1.4	David Garrard cut at the end of preseason
Eagles	8	9.4	-1.4
Ravens	12	10.6	1.4
Seahawks	7	5.5	1.5
Bears	8	9.5	-1.5	Injuries
Bills	6	4.4	1.6	Better defense, at least for a few games
Jets	8	9.8	-1.8	Sanchez had 18 interceptions
Browns	4	6.1	-2.1
Chiefs	7	9.1	-2.1	Injuries, coaching
Lions	10	7.8	2.2	Matt Stafford healthy the whole season
Broncos	8	5.2	2.8	Tim Tebow
Chargers	8	10.9	-2.9
Bengals	9	6.1	2.9	Andy Dalton and A.J. Green
Texans	10	7.1	2.9	Much better defense
Saints	13	10.1	2.9	Drew Brees' record-breaking season
Packers	15	12.1	2.9	Aaron Rodgers' MVP season
Vikings	3	6.0	-3.0	No more Favre
Panthers	6	2.4	3.6	Cam Newton
Cardinals	8	4.4	3.6	Better defense and Patrick Peterson
Buccaneers	4	8.7	-4.7	Much tougher schedule
Rams	2	6.8	-4.8	Was 2010 a fluke year for the Rams?
49ers	13	6.8	6.2	Jim Harbaugh, coach of the year?
Colts	2	9.1	-7.1	No Peyton Manning

Comments:

With the exception of a few extreme cases, most teams came fairly close to their projected win mark this year.
In hindsight, the Colts' 9.1 projected wins, along with the fact that they barely made it to 10 wins last year were some warning signs of serious problems in Indianapolis.
I'm not really sure what happened with the 49ers this year. There defense has been pretty solid for a few years now. Maybe they just needed someone who could make the best use of the offensive players they had? Frank Gore and Alex Smith both did very well this season.
Last year, the Rams' defense had a stand-out season, holding their opponents to 20 points or less in 10 games. This year, they only held their opponents to 20 points or less in 4 games. That's the difference between 2010 and 2011 right there.
Last summer, I speculated that the truncated off-season would hurt teams with new coaches and in need of free agent help. But with the exception of the Eagles and their many free agents, I'm not sure there are any teams that can blame their troubles on the short off-season.

NFL Wrapup: Significance of the first two games

2012-01-26T17:56:00.000-07:00

This is a breakdown of how teams did, grouped by their standings after the week 2 games. Click here to see all the posts on this topic.

	Team	Standing	Note
WW	Packers	15- 1
Teams	Patriots+	13- 3
(7)	Texans+	10- 6
	Lions	10- 6
	Jets	8- 8
	Bills	6-10
	Redskins	5-11	Avg wins: 9.6
WL	Ravens+	12- 4
Teams	49ers+	11- 3
(9)	Bengals	9- 7
	Cardinals	8- 8
	Chargers	8- 8
	Raiders	8- 8
	Bears	8- 8
	Eagles	8- 8
	Jaguars	5-11	Avg wins: 8.6
LW	Steelers	12- 4
Teams	Saints+	11- 3
(9)	Falcons	10- 6
	Giants+	9- 7
	Titans	9- 7
	Broncos+	8- 8
	Cowboys	8- 8
	Browns	4-12
	Buccaneers	4-12	Avg wins: 8.3
LL	Seahawks	7- 9
Teams	Chiefs	7- 9
(7)	Dolphins	6-10
	Panthers	6-10
	Vikings	3-13
	Rams	2-14
	Colts	2-14	Avg wins: 4.7

Comments

Playoff teams are listed in bold. Teams with a + are teams that won at least one playoff game.
This year's WL and LW grouping looks a little more like the results for the historical data set. In both cases, the data is centered around 8 wins or so, but with the LW set noticably more spread out. (Note that only 3 of the WL teams more than a game away from 8 wins.)

2011 Championship Week Pick Results

2012-01-23T16:05:00.000-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

I suppose the most surprising thing about this game is that the Ravens offense performed as well as they did. They had 4 drives of 65 yards or longer, all ending with a score except for that final missed field goal. And the missed field goal at the end of regulation has to be particularly painful—the Ravens went toe-to-toe with the Patriots the whole game, and would've had a decent shot at winning if they had forced overtime.

I have to say, I wasn't overly impressed with Tom Brady's performance in this game. 14 incompletions, no touchdowns and two interceptions gave him easily his lowest passer ratining (57.5) of the season. Yeah, one of those picks was pretty flukey, but the fact that they even tried such a high-risk throw against the Ravens' defense suggests to me a pretty high level of frustration. I suspect the Patriots offense will have to be more patient to succeed against the Giants defense.

Giants @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)

As predicted, this game was decided on turnovers: one muffed punt gave the Giants field position for the tying score, and a second fumble gave them field position for the winning field goal.

The Giants had an astonishing 17 drives in this game (including 3 in overtime). Only 3 of them longer than 31 yards. The 49ers defense gave them a real chance to win this game, but lack of production on offense, and those two critical turnovers, tipped the game to the Giants' favor.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	1-1	5-5	50.0%
SRS	1-1	5-5	50.0%
Line	1-1	6-4	60.0%

Stay Tuned!

I'll have some more season wrap-up posts this week, and the Super Bowl pick next week.

NFL Conference Championship Power Rankings

2012-01-23T06:33:00.000-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Saints	1.0810 (LW × 1.0044)	14-4	Bye
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0748 (LW × 1.0068)	15-3	Won by 3 vs Ravens
3 (↑1)	Giants	1.0332 (LW × 1.0424)	12-7	Won by 3 @ 49ers
4 (↓1)	49ers	1.0277 (LW × 0.9830)	14-4	Lost by 3 vs Giants
5 (-)	Eagles	0.9885 (LW × 1.0093)	8-8	Bye
6 (-)	Ravens	0.9780 (LW × 1.0010)	13-5	Lost by 3 @ Patriots
7 (-)	Packers	0.9710 (LW × 1.0118)	15-2	Bye
8 (-)	Steelers	0.9515 (LW × 0.9975)	12-5	Bye
9 (-)	Seahawks	0.9425 (LW × 0.9999)	7-9	Bye
10 (-)	Dolphins	0.9366 (LW × 1.0087)	6-10	Bye
11 (-)	Falcons	0.9098 (LW × 1.0070)	10-7	Bye
12 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9045 (LW × 1.0124)	8-8	Bye
13 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.9007 (LW × 0.9971)	8-8	Bye
14 (-)	Lions	0.8904 (LW × 1.0050)	10-7	Bye
15 (-)	Jets	0.8838 (LW × 1.0101)	8-8	Bye
16 (-)	Texans	0.8732 (LW × 1.0012)	11-7	Bye
17 (-)	Chargers	0.8690 (LW × 1.0042)	8-8	Bye
18 (-)	Titans	0.8402 (LW × 1.0026)	9-7	Bye
19 (↑1)	Broncos	0.8364 (LW × 1.0043)	9-9	Bye
20 (↓1)	Bengals	0.8360 (LW × 0.9985)	9-8	Bye
21 (-)	Panthers	0.8341 (LW × 1.0036)	6-10	Bye
22 (-)	Bears	0.8335 (LW × 1.0046)	8-8	Bye
23 (-)	Chiefs	0.8254 (LW × 1.0049)	7-9	Bye
24 (-)	Redskins	0.8033 (LW × 1.0087)	5-11	Bye
25 (↑1)	Raiders	0.7960 (LW × 1.0049)	8-8	Bye
26 (↓1)	Browns	0.7942 (LW × 0.9978)	4-12	Bye
27 (-)	Vikings	0.7906 (LW × 1.0053)	3-13	Bye
28 (↑1)	Bills	0.7799 (LW × 1.0075)	6-10	Bye
29 (↓1)	Jaguars	0.7793 (LW × 1.0018)	5-11	Bye
30 (-)	Rams	0.7590 (LW × 0.9953)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Colts	0.7543 (LW × 1.0024)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Buccaneers	0.6851 (LW × 1.0043)	4-12	Bye

Comments:

The Giants move up more than 4% on their road win over the highly ranked 49ers. They're still a long ways back of the Patriots, though.
The 2011 Giants join the 1979 Rams and the 2008 Cardinals as the only 7-loss teams to advance to the Super Bowl. The Rams and Cardinals both lost.
A number of teams with negative regular season point differentials (points scored - points allowed) have won in the playoffs (including the Broncos this year). The 2011 Giants are the only such team to advance to the Super Bowl.
The 49ers have now gone 1-5 in their last 6 NFC Championship games, including 4 home losses.
Tom Brady and Eli Manning are the first quarterbacks to have a Super Bowl rematch since Troy Aikman and Jim Kelly had their rematch in Super Bowl XXVIII

NFL: Home games in the Championship round

2012-01-20T08:55:00.000-07:00

I did the records of all home teams in the divisional round of the playoffs since 1970, so here is the corresponding table for the Conference Championship round:

Years	Home Wins	Home Losses	%
1970-1974	6	4	60%
1975-1979	7	3	70%
1980-1984	9	1	90%
1985-1989	7	3	70%
1990-1994	6	4	60%
1995-1999	6	4	60%
2000-2004	5	5	50%
2005-2009	8	2	80%

It may look like there's a lot of 6-4 and 5-5 records in the list, but the overall total is 54-26 (67.5%), which is only a few points lower than for the Divisional round.
There's only been two seasons (1992 and 1997) where both home teams lost in the Championship round.
Both home teams have won in the Championship round 16 times; the last time was 2009 (that was also the last time both #1 seeds advanced to the Super Bowl).
The 9 year period from 1997 to 2005 (inclusive) is the longest stretch (so far) where at least one home team lost in the Championship round.
Super Bowls are played (for the most part) on neutral fields. And while one team is designated the "home team" for various rule purposes (the coin flip, choice of jerseys, etc.), you can see from the "home teams" record (20-25) that this designation confers no special benefit.
The closest occurrence to a true "home team" in the Super Bowl came in Super Bowl XIV, when the (then) Los Angeles Rams faced the Pittsburgh Steelers. The game was in the Rose Bowl, just 15 miles from the Los Angeles Coliseum, the Rams' home stadium at the time. The Rams lost, 19-31.

NFL Conference Championship Picks

2012-01-18T11:59:00.000-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Ravens @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0926	Patriots δ=4.6	Patriots -7½
Giants @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.0549	49ers δ=4.3	49ers -2½

Comments:

The latest reports are the Ravens should have Ed Reed for their game against the Patriots. They're probably going to need their defense at full strength to come away with a win, especially the way the Ravens' offense played against the Texans.
The Patriots are coming off their first playoff win in four years, and if their defense can play as well against the Ravens as they did against the Broncos, they should have a relatively easy time advancing to the Super Bowl.
Last Sunday, the Giants seemed to have the upper hand over the Packers for virtually the whole game. In spite of that, they were only leading by 7 points at the start of the 4th quarter (and that margin provided by what was basically a fluke touchdown).

The Giants will likely need a lot better production from their offense to have a chance to beat the 49ers.
For the first 56 minutes, the 49ers offense had a very unimpressive performance against the Saints. Just two drives longer than 32 yards, and only 10 points off all those turnovers.

But in the final 4 minutes of the game, Alex Smith managed to produce, by a good margin, the 49ers two best drives of the game. Both 80+ yards in length, and both ending in touchdowns. It will make it a lot easier for he 49ers to come away with a win if their offense can play more like those last 4 minutes, and less like the first 56.
Given the way the Giants and 49ers offenses both played last Sunday, it seems very likely that the winner of their matchup will be determined by which defense can win the turnover battle.

NFL Division Pick Results

2012-01-16T16:14:00.001-07:00

It's been a football cliché for a long time that, especially in the playoffs, you have to win the turnover battle. The reality behind the cliché was hammered home with a vengeance in three of the four games this weekend.

Winning team in bold.

Broncos @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

Like last year's Seahawks, the Broncos were easily the weakest division winner, but managed to pull out a home upset win in the Wild Card round. And like last year, they looked a lot more like their record in the Divisional round.

It may have been the competition (or the lack thereof), but the Patriots defense looked as good in this game as they have all season. The Broncos only had two drives longer than 35 yards, both of them well into garbage time. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense did what they've done most of the season—scored early and often. They put this game away early, and should be well rested for next week.

Saints (APR, SRS, Line) @ 49ers

The 49ers have made a living this season playing very good defense, including producing more turnovers (38) than any other team in the league.

As I observed in the power rankings, losing the turnover battle is a recipe for losing in the playoffs. It's remarkable the Saints were able to come back with a late lead, and only lost because the 49ers were able to drive for an answering score. If the Saints had held on, it would have been just the second time in the playoffs a team had a -4 turnover margin, and still won.

Texans @ Ravens (APR, SRS, Line)

The Texans, as much as any team this weekend, have to be wondering what might have been. They played the Ravens close for the whole game, and had a chance for a tying touchdown in the final minute of the game. If T.J. Yates hadn't been intercepted 3 times, they would've had a real chance to win the game.

As for the Ravens, their defense did what it needed to do—produce turnovers and keep the Texans out of the end zone. But it's not a good sign that their offense was only able to score 20 points, even with 4 extra chances at the ball.

Giants @ Packers (APR, SRS, Line)

This was a shocking display of offensive ineptitude on the part of the Packers. The last time they lost 3 fumbles in a game was more than four years ago (The last time they lost 3 fumbles and won was more than 14 years ago).

The Packers' defense was its usual self: they gave up a lot of yards and some big plays. But in spite of all the dropped passes, lost fumbles, and the Hail Mary touchdown, this was just a 7-point game going into the 4th quarter. By no means out of reach for one of the highest-scoring offenses this season.

But that offense was never able to break out of its doldrums. A failed 4th-down conversion, followed by a third lost fumble was the back-breaker.

To be fair to the Giants, they played well, overcome some adversity of their own (including getting denied on a challenge they really should've won), and took full advantage of the opportunities that came their way. In spite of their unimpressive regular season record, they certainly looked like a force to be reckoned with on Sunday.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	2-2	4-4	50.0%
SRS	2-2	4-4	50.0%
Line	2-2	5-3	75.0%

NFL Division Power Rankings

2012-01-15T17:58:00.002-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Saints	1.0762 (LW × 1.0059)	14-4	Lost by 4 @ 49ers
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0675 (LW × 1.0125)	14-3	Won by 35 vs Broncos
3 (-)	49ers	1.0455 (LW × 1.0209)	14-3	Won by 4 vs Saints
4 (↑4)	Giants	0.9911 (LW × 1.0495)	11-7	Won by 17 @ Packers
5 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9794 (LW × 1.0113)	8-8	Bye
6 (↓1)	Ravens	0.9770 (LW × 1.0043)	13-4	Won by 7 vs Texans
7 (↓3)	Packers	0.9596 (LW × 0.9453)	15-2	Lost by 17 vs Giants
8 (↓1)	Steelers	0.9539 (LW × 0.9992)	12-5	Bye
9 (-)	Seahawks	0.9426 (LW × 1.0070)	7-9	Bye
10 (-)	Dolphins	0.9286 (LW × 1.0042)	6-10	Bye
11 (-)	Falcons	0.9034 (LW × 0.9984)	10-7	Bye
12 (↑1)	Cardinals	0.9033 (LW × 1.0087)	8-8	Bye
13 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.8934 (LW × 1.0146)	8-8	Bye
14 (↓2)	Lions	0.8860 (LW × 0.9819)	10-7	Bye
15 (↑2)	Jets	0.8750 (LW × 1.0049)	8-8	Bye
16 (↓2)	Texans	0.8721 (LW × 0.9794)	11-7	Lost by 7 @ Ravens
17 (↓1)	Chargers	0.8654 (LW × 0.9855)	8-8	Bye
18 (↑2)	Titans	0.8380 (LW × 0.9943)	9-7	Bye
19 (↑2)	Bengals	0.8373 (LW × 0.9976)	9-8	Bye
20 (↓2)	Broncos	0.8328 (LW × 0.9749)	9-9	Lost by 35 @ Patriots
21 (↑1)	Panthers	0.8311 (LW × 0.9928)	6-10	Bye
22 (↓3)	Bears	0.8297 (LW × 0.9832)	8-8	Bye
23 (-)	Chiefs	0.8214 (LW × 0.9855)	7-9	Bye
24 (↑3)	Redskins	0.7964 (LW × 1.0107)	5-11	Bye
25 (↑1)	Browns	0.7960 (LW × 1.0006)	4-12	Bye
26 (↓2)	Raiders	0.7921 (LW × 0.9822)	8-8	Bye
27 (↓2)	Vikings	0.7865 (LW × 0.9851)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7779 (LW × 0.9925)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Bills	0.7741 (LW × 1.0012)	6-10	Bye
30 (-)	Rams	0.7626 (LW × 1.0069)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Colts	0.7526 (LW × 0.9958)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Buccaneers	0.6822 (LW × 0.9913)	4-12	Bye

Comments:

That was ugly. More later.
Actually, I do have one observation. Teams on the losing end of the turnover battle rarely win in the playoffs.

NFL: 7, 8, and 9 loss teams in the playoffs

2012-01-13T11:15:00.002-07:00

Since we've got a 7-loss team and an 8-loss team advancing to the Divisional round this year, I thought I'd take a look at how high-loss teams have historically (since 1970) done in the playoffs.

9-Loss Teams

Of course, there's been just one: the 2010 Seahawks, with an upset win in the Wildcard round, and then a loss in the Divisional round.

8-Loss Teams

There's been 10 8-loss teams:

Season	Team	Result
1985	Browns	0-1
1990	Saints	0-1
1991	Jets	0-1
1999	Cowboys	0-1
1999	Lions	0-1
2004	Vikings	1-1
2004	Rams	1-1
2006	Giants	0-1
2008	Chargers	1-1
2011	Broncos	tbd

The Broncos are just the 4th 8-loss team to win a playoff game. If they win on ~~Sunday~~ Saturday, they will be the first 8-loss team to win in the Divisional round.

9-Loss Teams

There's been 58 7-loss teams that have advanced to the playoffs. The Giants results are pending. Of the rest, 27 lost in the Wildcard round, 22 lost in the Division round. That leaves 8 that won in the divisional round:

Season	Team	Beat	Note
1979	Rams	Cowboys
1983	Seahawks	Dolphins	Marino's rookie season
1984	Steelers	Broncos	Elway's 2nd season
1987	Vikings	49ers	Strike season
1995	Colts	Chiefs	Marty Schottenheimer
1996	Jaguars	Broncos
2008	Cardinals	Panthers	Jake Delhomme
2009	Jets	Chargers

A number of these games feature what I would regard as extenuating circumstances:

Two games were lost by teams with quarterbacks in their first or second year.
In 1987 with "replacement players", the Vikings went 0-3, the 49ers went 3-0. If you throw out those 3 weeks, the Vikings and 49ers records are much closer.
Marty Schottenheimer is the poster boy for strong regular seasons, followed by 1-and-done playoff appearances.
Jake Delhomme's performance in the Cardinals @ Panthers playoff game is one of the biggest quarterback meltdowns I've ever seen in the playoffs.

Of these 8 teams, only 2 (the 1979 Rams and the 2008 Cardinals) advanced to the Super Bowl. Both lost, coincidentally both to the Steelers.

NFL Division Round Picks

2012-01-11T14:36:00.000-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Broncos @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.2341	Patriots δ=13.9	Patriots -13½
Texans @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0925	Ravens δ=0.6	Ravens -7½
Giants @ Packers	Packers* ρ=1.0749	Packers δ=8.3	Packers -8
Saints @ 49ers	Saints* ρ=1.0447	Saints* δ=3.7	Saints -3½

Comments:

Unanimous agreement of all four games. Note that Saints @ 49ers is the only game this week not a rematch of a regular season meeting. For the rematches, the team favored here also won in the regular season.
The Texans are the only team of the 8 remaining that hasn't won at least one Super Bowl.
The Broncos haven't won two playoff games in the same season since their 1998 Super Bowl run (in fact, last week was just the Broncos' second playoff win since Super Bowl XXXII).
Monday, I heard an argument that since the Broncos have a better defense, running game, and special teams, they have a chance against the Patriots on Saturday. The problem with that logic is the Broncos presumably had the same advantages in week 15 when they played the Patriots in Denver. You may remember the Broncos made it a game for a quarter, but the Patriots pulled away in the second, ultimately winning by 18.
I can't seem to get a solid read on any of these games. The Tebow-lead Broncos have made a living coming out of games with wins where it didn't seem like they had a chance. The Texans defense could easily shut down the Ravens—I suspect that game will be decided by scores on defense and special teams.
On the NFC side, the Saints have looked much weaker on the road, and haven't faced many defenses as strong as the 49ers. And it's always an adventure every time the Packers defense takes the field—the Giants managed to score 35 points on them, and tie the game late in the 4th quarter.
At any rate, it should be a good slate of games this weekend.

NFL: Home games in the divisional round

2012-01-10T17:11:00.001-07:00

Over on profootballtalk.nbcsports.com, Florio posted this article about how home field in the divisional round is no longer a lock for a win. He points out that, since 2005, home teams in the divisional round of the playoffs are 12-12.

But he picked 2005 advisedly—the trend prior to that year is very much the home teams winning. In fact, if you look at the win-loss totals by 5 year periods, they are (with the exception of the early 1990s and late 2000s) fairly consistent:

Years	Home Wins	Home Losses	%
1970-1974	15	5	75%
1975-1979	12	8	60%
1980-1984	13	7	65%
1985-1989	15	5	75%
1990-1994	18	2	90%
1995-1999	15	5	75%
2000-2004	16	4	80%
2005-2009	10	10	50%

You can see there's been a fair amount of variation—the late 70s came very close to a 50% win rate for the home team as well, and in the early 90s, the home team had a virtual lock in the divisional round.

The WL totals for all home teams in the divisional rounds since 1970 (and including the 2010 games) is 116-48 (70.7%).

NFL Wildcard Pick Results

2012-01-10T10:03:00.002-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Steelers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Broncos

The Steelers offense had their troubles in this game (5 sacks, 4 punts and a bad interception), but with their defense, 23 points should've been enough to beat the Broncos. But the Steelers defense suffered some critical injuries, and the rest looked (in the words of Warren Sapp), old and slow. The result was Tim Tebow having a career day passing (316 yards and 2 touchdowns). And now, for the Steelers, it is over.

Lions @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)

The Lions made more of a game of this than I was expecting—leading at halftime, and only down 4 at the start of the 4th quarter. But their defense just couldn't stop the Saints. Other than two fumbles, every Saints drive (until the very end of the game) ended in a score, all touchdowns, except for one field goal.

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Last spring, the Falcons decided they needed a big upgrade in their offense, so they traded up to get wide receiver Julio Jones. The results of this game are a strong indication that 1) the Falcons were right in concluding they needed to improve their offense, and 2) one wide recever was not enough. The Falcons only had 4 drives longer than 25 yards, and they all ended with a failed 4th-down conversion attempt.

Bengals @ Texans (APR, SRS, Line)

The Texans played perfectly to their strengths—ran a lot (35 carries for 188 yard), played outstanding defense (Dalton was sacked 4 times, intercepted 3 times, and the Bengals were held to just 10 points), and kept as much pressure off of T.J. Yates as possible. Yates only completed 11 passes for 159 yards, but that was more than enough.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	2-2	2-2	50.0%
SRS	2-2	2-2	50.0%
Line	3-1	3-1	75.0%

NFL Wildcard Power Rankings

2012-01-08T19:40:00.001-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Saints	1.0699 (LW × 1.0204)	14-3	Won by 17 vs Lions
2 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0543 (LW × 1.0026)	13-3	Bye
3 (-)	49ers	1.0241 (LW × 0.9841)	13-3	Bye
4 (-)	Packers	1.0151 (LW × 0.9984)	15-1	Bye
5 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9728 (LW × 0.9731)	12-4	Bye
6 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9685 (LW × 1.0036)	8-8	Bye
7 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9547 (LW × 0.9516)	12-5	Lost by 6 @ Broncos
8 (↑3)	Giants	0.9444 (LW × 1.0324)	10-7	Won by 22 vs Falcons
9 (↓1)	Seahawks	0.9361 (LW × 0.9878)	7-9	Bye
10 (-)	Dolphins	0.9247 (LW × 1.0049)	6-10	Bye
11 (↓2)	Falcons	0.9049 (LW × 0.9610)	10-7	Lost by 22 @ Giants
12 (↑1)	Lions	0.9024 (LW × 0.9891)	10-7	Lost by 17 @ Saints
13 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.8955 (LW × 0.9814)	8-8	Bye
14 (-)	Texans	0.8905 (LW × 0.9928)	11-6	Won by 21 vs Bengals
15 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.8805 (LW × 1.0052)	8-8	Bye
16 (-)	Chargers	0.8782 (LW × 0.9959)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑1)	Jets	0.8707 (LW × 1.0068)	8-8	Bye
18 (↑3)	Broncos	0.8543 (LW × 1.0120)	9-8	Won by 6 vs Steelers
19 (↑1)	Bears	0.8439 (LW × 0.9979)	8-8	Bye
20 (↓1)	Titans	0.8428 (LW × 0.9882)	9-7	Bye
21 (↓6)	Bengals	0.8393 (LW × 0.9397)	9-8	Lost by 21 @ Texans
22 (-)	Panthers	0.8372 (LW × 0.9919)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	Chiefs	0.8334 (LW × 0.9979)	7-9	Bye
24 (↑1)	Raiders	0.8065 (LW × 0.9979)	8-8	Bye
25 (↑1)	Vikings	0.7984 (LW × 0.9975)	3-13	Bye
26 (↓2)	Browns	0.7955 (LW × 0.9713)	4-12	Bye
27 (↑1)	Redskins	0.7879 (LW × 1.0037)	5-11	Bye
28 (↓1)	Jaguars	0.7838 (LW × 0.9840)	5-11	Bye
29 (↑1)	Bills	0.7732 (LW × 1.0036)	6-10	Bye
30 (↓1)	Rams	0.7574 (LW × 0.9786)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Colts	0.7557 (LW × 0.9867)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Buccaneers	0.6882 (LW × 0.9926)	4-12	Bye

Comments:

This is the first time all four home teams won in the wildcard round since 2006.
The Falcons @ Giants game is the first time since 1993 a team has scored exactly 2 points in a game, and the first time ever in the playoffs.
The Broncos winning continues the streak of APR's lowest-ranked playoff team winning at least once in the playoffs (although this is the first time that it hasn't been the NFC West division winner).
We also had the first playoff overtime game under the new rules designed to allow both teams at least one possession. Somewhat ironically featuring a game-winning touchdown on the first OT play from scrimmage, one of the few exceptions to the "at least one possession" rule.
The Steelers loss also means the Super Bowl "losers curse" continues—going back to 1997, the Cardinals and Seahawks remain the only Super Bowl losers to win a playoff game the following season.

NFL Wrapup: APR's Biggest Upsets of 2011

2012-01-06T13:08:00.001-07:00

How Upsets Were Determined

Using all game scores through week 16, the power index values for all teams were computed, using a non-weighted version of the APR ranking algorithm. (The final week of games is left out to avoid skewing the rankings with the results of games where teams are resting their starters, or otherwise not trying).

For the weekly power rankings, APR uses method that gives less weight to older games, emphasising each teams more recent perormances. This means that the matchup ratios (ρ) listed below will not correspond to the matchup ratios listed in the weekly game pick posts.

Once the power indexes are computed for each team, every game of the season (including week 17) is picked using the unweighted rankings. The wrong picks are sorted by matchup ratio, with the games having the largest ratios featured below.

Any game that I regard as not a "real" upset (because a team is resting its starters, or is indirectly affected by such) is not included in this list.

Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10

Week 15: The Ravens have one of the top-ranked defenses this season, but when they traveled to San Diego, the Chargers moved the ball up and down the field all game long and made the Ravens look like they were a long ways from deserving the AFC's #2 seed.
Week 7: The Seahawks traveled to Cleveland, but couldn't leave with a win because they couldn't score 7 points on the Browns.
Week 2: The Cowboys come back from a 10-point 4th-quarter deficit and steal an overtime win from the 49ers.
Week 15: The Texans defense didn't show up, T.J. Yates looked like an inexperienced rookie, and the Panthers left Houston with a convincing win over the AFC South division champions.
Week 2: Early signs of the Ravens road troubles when they travel to Nashville and give up two touchdowns and 4 field goals to the Titans (who only scored 26+ points four times all season).

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2011 Season

Week 9: Giants 24, Patriots 20 (ρ=1.1663)
Two sacks and 21 incompletions (including a couple interceptions) add up to probably Tom Brady's worst game of the season. Factor in 2 lost fumbles, and the Patriots just gave the Giants too many chances to win this game.

Week 15: Titans 13, Colts 27 (ρ=1.1742)
An injured Matt Hasselbeck, an ineffective Jake Locker, and a Colts defense that finally put a whole game together finally got the Colts a win, and cost the Titans a playoff spot.

Week 14: 49ers 19, Cardinals 21 (ρ=1.1930)
The 49ers have had trouble scoring points, especially on the road. Which means that (as with this game) it may only take a handful of big plays to beat them. Losing this game meant the 49ers had to win out to clinch the #2 seed over the Saints.

Week 3: Falcons 13, Buccaneers 16 (ρ=1.2068)
The Buccaneers were actually a unanimous pick to win this game, but in hindsight, it has to be counted as a pretty embarrassing loss for the Falcons. This is the only game of the season the Buccaneers' opponent didn't score at least 17 points.

Week 7: Ravens 7, Jaguars 12 (ρ=1.2167)
Unlike the Ravens' other road losses this season, their defense did a fine job in this game. But their offense didn't even generate 150 yards and couldn't put up enough points to out-score the Jaguars four field goals.

Week 2: Patriots 31, Bills 34 (ρ=1.2179)
The Patriots established an early 21-0 lead in this game, but Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions, and that let the Bills back in the game, and gave them a chance to win on a last-second field goal.

Week 16: Texans 16, Colts 19 (ρ=1.2831)
The Texans had too many sacks, too many penalties, and not enough touchdowns in this game. That left the door open for the Colts to take the lead on a late touchdown, and clinch their second win of the season.

Week 6: Saints 20, Buccaneers 26 (ρ=1.3163)
Sean Payton got his knee busted up, Drew Brees threw 3 interceptions, and the Saints gave the Buccaneers their last win of the season.

Week 15: Packers 14, Chiefs 19 (ρ=1.3215)
It's tempting to blame the Packers' defense for this loss, but their play here is comparable to the way they've played all season—they gave up a lot of yards, but not many points. The real problem was on the other side of the ball. The Packers' patchwork offensive line gave up 4 sacks, and their receivers dropped too many passes. The result was Aaron Rodgers posting a comletion ratio under 50% for just the 3rd start of his career, and the only game this season the Packers didn't score at least 24 points.

Week 8: Saints 21, Rams 31 (ρ=1.3721)
Drew Brees got sacked a season-record 6 times in this game, threw 2 interceptions, and generally made the Rams' defense look like world-beaters. This makes 3 seasons in a row (2010, 2009) that the Saints are on the losing end of the season's biggest upset.

Eliminated Games

Most teams had something to play for right down to the end of the season, so no games were eliminated from the rankings this year.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Winning teams in bold. Teams favored by 10 or more points were 34-3-0 this year.

Week	Game	Line
8	Saints 21, Rams 31	Saints -15½
10	Cardinals 21, Eagles 17	Eagles -14
15	Packers 14, Chiefs 19	Packers -14
5	Seahawks 36, Giants 25	Giants -9½
3	Patriots 31, Bills 34	Patriots -9
9	Giants 24, Patriots 20	Patriots -8½
13	Chiefs 10, Bears 3	Bears -8
7	Ravens 7, Jaguars 12	Ravens -8
9	Bears 30, Eagles 24	Eagles -8
4	49ers 24, Eagles 23	Eagles -7½
9	Broncos 38, Raiders 24	Raiders -7½

NFL Wildcard Picks

2012-01-04T09:48:00.001-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Steelers @ Broncos	Steelers ρ=1.1885	Steelers* δ=10.6	Steelers -8
Lions @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.1492	Saints δ=5.3	Saints -10½
Falcons @ Giants	Falcons ρ=1.0293	Falcons* δ=1.9	Giants -3
Bengals @ Texans	Texans* ρ=1.0041	Texans δ=4.1	Texans -3

Comments:

The Steelers and Broncos have (by a pretty good margin) the two lowest-scoring offenses of any of the playoff teams. This could easily be another 7-3 or 13-9 game. That also means, unless the Steelers get a shut-out, 8 points seems like a lot to give.
The Lions playoff game will be 20 years, almost to the day, since their last playoff win. The Bengals are the only team with a longer time since their last playoff win, 21 years ago
That means the result of the Bengals @ Texans game will be notable no matter what—either the Bengals will end the NFL's longest active streak without a playoff win, or the Texans will get their first playoff win in franchise history.
In the regular season meeting between the Lions and Saints, Matt Stafford was able to pass for more than 400 yards against the Saints defense, so the Lions aren't completely doomed. This time, though, they have to get touchdowns. Given the way the Saints score points, especially in the Super Dome, the Lions will get in trouble very quickly settling for field goals.
The Giants are just 3-5 in their last 8 games, with two of those wins coming in games against the Cowboys. The Falcons haven't been much of a juggernaut either, but at least they've beaten more than two teams since the first week of November.
I've made this point before, but it bears repeating: the Texans are 10-1 when they hold their opponent under 20 points. The performance of the Texans' defense is made even more critical by the fact that the Texans haven't scored more than 22 points since Matt Schaub got hurt.

NFL Week 17 APR vs. ESPN

2012-01-03T10:23:00.002-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the Bubble:: ESPN drops the Raiders (+8) 3 spots now that they are no longer playoff contenders.; ESPN gives the Titans (+7) a 3-spot bump for a 1-point victory over the nothing-to-play-for, Jake Delhomme-lead Titans.; However you feel about Tim Tebow, it's not a good sign that the Broncos (+7) have backed into the playoffs on a 3-game losing streak. They've only beaten one team (the Bengals in week 2) with a winning record.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-14): No question that APR has the Fins ranked too high at #10. But (as noted by ESPN), they finished the season 6-3. They don't belong in the bottom 10, either.
Seahawks (-13): Another over-rank by APR (#8). But they finished 5-3, including close losses to the 49ers (13-3 and the NFC's #2 seed), and the Cardinals (8-8).
On the bubble: A tough season for the Eagles (-8). Their early 4-game losing streak included last-second losses to the Falcons and 49ers, and left them one win and the right tie-breakers away from winning the division. They're probably the most dangerous team out of the playoffs.

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

2012-01-02T20:56:00.001-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-1)

Right:

49ers @ Rams
Steelers @ Browns
Ravens @ Bengals
Bills @ Patriots
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Panthers @ Saints
Redskins @ Eagles
Colts @ Jaguars

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Broncos

This was a game of (mostly) offensive futility. The Broncos only had one drive longer than 36 yards, which ended with a field goal. The Chiefs only had one drive go more than 35 yards. But it ended in a touchdown, which was good enough to win this game.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-3, SRS 3-4, Line 4-3)

Lions (Line) @ Packers (APR, SRS)

In spite of some bad calls by the referees, the Lions had an extraordinary day offensively, including a 5-touchdown performance by Matt Stafford. But their defense just couldn't stop backup Matt Flynn. In spite of missing key starters Greg Jennings, James Starks, Randal Cobb, and Brian Bulaga, the Packers offense put up a franchise record 480 yards passing and 6 touchdowns.

Jets (SRS) @ Dolphins (APR, Line)
This one's pretty simple: Mark Sanchez threw 3 interceptions, which was just more than this team could overcome. The Jets were 0-5 this season when they had 3 or more turnovers.

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)

The Raiders had 6 scoring drives in this game, but 4 of them were for field goals. That turned out to be a problem, as their defense allowed the Chargers 4 touchdown drives, and thier special teams gave up another.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Vikings

As advertised, the "Battle of the backups" was a close game. Neither team lit things up, but the Vikings managed to be worst of a bad lot: 9 drives that ended with a punt or turnover meant that the Bears' 17 points was enough to win the game.

Titans (Line) @ Texans (APR, SRS)

The Texans are 10-1 when they hold their opponent under 20 points. Their offense (whether lead by Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, or Jake Delhomme) mostly hasn't put up a lot of points. This leads to a pretty simple formula for the Texans: when the defense struggles, they lose.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

Another close game, as expected. Perhaps the biggest factor in this game was Larry Fitzgerald (9 catches for 149 yards) who pretty much put this team on his back and carried them to the win.

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Tony Romo didn't appear to be slowed down by his bruised hand, putting up 289 yards and 2 touchdowns passing, with a 78% completion rate. But 6 sacks, 7 penalties, and 2 turnovers meant that most of those yards did not culminate in scoring drives. And Eli Manning had a very good game (346 yards, 3 touchdowns passing, 73% completion rate), which allowed the Giants to build an early lead that the Cowboys never were able to overcome.

Totals

A good week all around, and (for APR and SRS) much better season season tallies than last year.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	12-4	153-86-1	64.0%
SRS	11-5	157-82-1	65.6%
Line	12-4	159-81-0	66.2%

Week 17 Power Rankings

2012-01-01T22:51:00.001-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Patriots	1.0515 (LW × 1.0084)	13-3	Won by 28 vs Bills
2 (↑2)	Saints	1.0485 (LW × 1.0248)	13-3	Won by 28 vs Panthers
3 (↓1)	49ers	1.0407 (LW × 1.0062)	13-3	Won by 7 @ Rams
4 (↓1)	Packers	1.0167 (LW × 0.9917)	15-1	Won by 4 vs Lions
5 (-)	Steelers	1.0033 (LW × 0.9942)	12-4	Won by 4 @ Browns
6 (-)	Ravens	0.9997 (LW × 1.0204)	12-4	Won by 8 @ Bengals
7 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9650 (LW × 1.0186)	8-8	Won by 24 vs Redskins
8 (↑1)	Seahawks	0.9476 (LW × 1.0056)	7-9	Lost by 3 @ Cardinals
9 (↓2)	Falcons	0.9416 (LW × 0.9913)	10-6	Won by 21 vs Buccaneers
10 (↑2)	Dolphins	0.9202 (LW × 1.0070)	6-10	Won by 2 vs Jets
11 (↑5)	Giants	0.9148 (LW × 1.0257)	9-7	Won by 17 vs Cowboys
12 (↑3)	Cardinals	0.9125 (LW × 1.0191)	8-8	Won by 3 vs Seahawks
13 (-)	Lions	0.9123 (LW × 1.0069)	10-6	Lost by 4 @ Packers
14 (↓4)	Texans	0.8969 (LW × 0.9665)	10-6	Lost by 1 vs Titans
15 (↓4)	Bengals	0.8932 (LW × 0.9741)	9-7	Lost by 8 vs Ravens
16 (↑3)	Chargers	0.8818 (LW × 1.0263)	8-8	Won by 12 @ Raiders
17 (↓3)	Cowboys	0.8760 (LW × 0.9731)	8-8	Lost by 17 @ Giants
18 (↓1)	Jets	0.8648 (LW × 1.0010)	8-8	Lost by 2 @ Dolphins
19 (↑3)	Titans	0.8528 (LW × 1.0219)	9-7	Won by 1 @ Texans
20 (↑1)	Bears	0.8457 (LW × 0.9997)	8-8	Won by 4 @ Vikings
21 (↓3)	Broncos	0.8442 (LW × 0.9792)	8-8	Lost by 4 vs Chiefs
22 (↓2)	Panthers	0.8440 (LW × 0.9946)	6-10	Lost by 28 @ Saints
23 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.8352 (LW × 1.0168)	7-9	Won by 4 @ Broncos
24 (↑2)	Browns	0.8190 (LW × 1.0091)	4-12	Lost by 4 vs Steelers
25 (↓2)	Raiders	0.8081 (LW × 0.9820)	8-8	Lost by 12 vs Chargers
26 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8004 (LW × 0.9827)	3-13	Lost by 4 vs Bears
27 (-)	Jaguars	0.7965 (LW × 0.9929)	5-11	Won by 6 vs Colts
28 (-)	Redskins	0.7850 (LW × 0.9955)	5-11	Lost by 24 @ Eagles
29 (-)	Rams	0.7739 (LW × 0.9990)	2-14	Lost by 7 vs 49ers
30 (-)	Bills	0.7704 (LW × 0.9965)	6-10	Lost by 28 @ Patriots
31 (-)	Colts	0.7659 (LW × 1.0139)	2-14	Lost by 6 @ Jaguars
32 (-)	Buccaneers	0.6933 (LW × 0.9804)	4-12	Lost by 21 @ Falcons

Comments:

The Patriots, Saints, and 49ers are all pretty close together, with a pretty significant gap down to the Packers. APR doesn't take into account resting starters, and so the Packers slip down a bit more on their 3-point home victory.
The Patriots get a blow-out win over the Bills, but it can't be a good sign they fell behind 21-0 before they got started scoring. Even early in the game, 21-point deficit is not easy to overcome in the playoffs, even playing at home.
The Eagles are the highest-ranked non-playoff team, followed up closely by the Seahawks as the highest ranked team with a losing record.
The Broncos are the lowest-ranked playoff team, a position that had been held by the NFC West champion the previous 3 seasons.
The Raiders are the lowest-ranked 8-8 team, and the Titans are the lowest-ranked team with a winning record. But with the seasons those teams had, their ranking seems pretty reasonable.

NFL Week 17 Picks

2011-12-28T10:32:00.002-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Bills @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.3488	Patriots δ=10.7	Patriots -11½
Buccaneers @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.3432	Falcons δ=13.1	Falcons -12
49ers @ Rams	49ers ρ=1.3351	49ers* δ=20.3	49ers -10½
Steelers @ Browns	Steelers ρ=1.2433	Steelers* δ=11.4	Steelers -7
Panthers @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.2057	Saints δ=10.6	Saints -9½
Redskins @ Eagles	Eagles* ρ=1.2015	Eagles δ=6.9	Eagles -10
Lions @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1315	Packers δ=5.2	Lions -3½
Titans @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.1120	Texans δ=6.3	Titans -2½
Ravens @ Bengals	Ravens ρ=1.0686	Ravens* δ=5.2	Ravens -1½
Colts @ Jaguars	Jaguars ρ=1.0620	Jaguars δ=5.7	Jaguars -3½
Jets @ Dolphins	Dolphins* ρ=1.0577	Jets* δ=0.2	Dolphins -1
Seahawks @ Cardinals	Seahawks ρ=1.0525	Seahawks* δ=3.7	Cardinals -2½
Chiefs @ Broncos	Broncos* ρ=1.0496	Broncos δ=3.6	Broncos -3
Chargers @ Raiders	Chargers ρ=1.0440	Chargers* δ=5.0	Raiders -3
Bears @ Vikings	Bears ρ=1.0386	Bears* δ=7.7	Vikings -1
Cowboys @ Giants	Cowboys ρ=1.0093	Cowboys* δ=2.3	Giants -2½

Comments:

At the moment, I can't find a line for Bears @ Vikings except "pick 'em". Perhaps they are waiting to see if Ponder will be able to play. Update: looks like I was right. Word has come out that Ponder will play, and suddenly there's a line.
On the NFC side, the playoff teams are set, except for the NFC East winner. But there's still some jockeying for position to be done. The 49ers still need a win to clinch the #2 seed, and the Saints will want to win in case they don't. The Lions will need a win to clinch the #5 seed, and a trip to the NFC East champion. The #6 seed will have to go to the Saints (or possibly the 49ers) on wildcard weekend.
The AFC has four teams vying for the final wildcard spot, which makes the Ravens @ Bengals game one of the most interesting matchups of the weekend. If the Bengals win, they're in (and also open up the door for the Steelers to win the AFC North and clinch the #2 seed). If the Bengals lose, it's a free-for-all for that last wildcard spot.
The Packers and Texans are the only two playoff teams that have their seeds clinched, which means Lions @ Packers and Titans @ Texans are the games most likely to be affected by teams resting their starters.
The 49ers get their widest spread of the season. They haven't won on the road by more than 8 points. Of course, they haven't played anyone near as bad as the Rams on the road, either.

NFL Week 16 APR vs. ESPN

2011-12-27T12:26:00.001-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Raiders (+9): ESPN likes to rank playoff-contenders (too) high, even if their last 4 games feature a 3-game losing streak, and an overtime win over the struggling Chiefs.
On the Bubble:: Speaking of overrated playoff contenders, the Titans (+7), are still alive for one of the AFC's wildcard spots.; APR gives the Lions (+6) a 5-spot bump for demolishing the Chargers, but ESPN's 2-spot bump is enough to keep them on the bubble.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-12): As noted in this week's power rankings, the Dolphins have five losses by 3 points or less, including this week at the Patriots. I'll stipulate that APR has them ranked too high at #12, but they don't belong in the bottom 12, where ESPN has them, either.
Seahawks (-9): As noted earlier, the Seahawks have been playing tough this year, and took the NFC's (presumed) #2 seed to the wire on Sunday. Again, APR has them too high at #9, but the Seahawks have played as good as or better than some of the teams ESPN has above them (Eagles, Jets, Titans, Raiders).
Eagles (-9): Good news for the Eagles: Michael Vick is healthy, the defense is finally coming together, they've put together a 3-game winning streak, and they're only one win behind the division-leading Giants. The bad news, of course, is this is all too little, too late.
On the bubble:: Nobody closer than Vikings and Cardinals (-5)

Week 16 Pick Results

2011-12-27T09:43:00.002-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

Right:

49ers @ Seahawks
Rams @ Steelers
Browns @ Ravens
Dolphins @ Patriots
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Cardinals @ Bengals
Jaguars @ Titans
Bears @ Packers
Falcons @ Saints

Wrong:

Broncos @ Bills

One of the overlooked aspects of the Broncos winning streak has been the emergence of Von Miller as a major force for their defense. But in the last two games, Von Miller has been a non-factor, and (probably not coincidentally), they've allowed 40+ points in each game. It's also no surprise that the style of offense they play with Tim Tebow doesn't do well in high scoring games.

Texans @ Colts

The Texans' numbers for this game look pretty good: T.J. Yates was 13/16 for 132 yards and no picks. Arian Foster ran for 158 yards. But because of penalties, sacks, and a turnover, too many of their drives ended either with a field goal, or no score at all, and that left the door open for the Colts offense to win the game on a late touchdown.

Giants @ Jets

The Jets just couldn't move the ball on offense. They only had 4 drives longer than 22 yards, only one of those ended in a score. It wasn't a great game for the Giants, either (they were 4 of 15 converting 3rd downs, and Eli Manning only completed 9 passes). But it was enough to get by the Jets.

Vikings @ Redskins

The Redskins had more yards and more first downs than the Vikings in this game. But they also had more penalty yards, and more incompletions than the Vikings. The result was they mostly settled for field goals, while the Vikings were driving for touchdowns. As a result, the Redskins were playing catch-up most of the game, including when time finally expired.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-2, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Raiders (SRS) @ Chiefs (APR, Line)

Kyle Orton lead the Chiefs offense to another 400+ yard game (for just the 3rd time this season). But two interceptions and 88 penalty yards meant that (like last week) those yards didn't translate into a lot of points. The Chiefs only tied the game on a late touchdown, and in overtime, the Raiders won the toss, and one long completion got them well within Janikowski's field goal range.

Chargers (APR) @ Lions (SRS, Line)

I think APR has the Chargers overrated—they only broke their 6-game losing streak when they reached perhaps the softest part of their schedule, culminating with a win over the can't-win-on-the-road Ravens. This held the Chargers up in APR's rankings long enough to give them a slight edge over the Lions, who slumped in the rankings due to a 4-5 streak.

Eagles (APR) @ Cowboys (SRS, Line)

When the Giants' victory over the Jets went final late in the first quarter of this game, it eliminated the Eagles from the playoffs, and meant that the NFC East would come down to Sunday's Cowboys @ Giants game.

Totals

SRS again closes to ½ a game of the Line.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	10-6	141-82-1	63.2%
SRS	11-5	146-77-1	65.4%
Line	10-6	147-77-0	65.6%

Week 16 Power Rankings

2011-12-26T22:31:00.003-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Patriots	1.0428 (LW × 0.9898)	12-3	Won by 3 vs Dolphins
2 (↑1)	49ers	1.0343 (LW × 1.0130)	12-3	Won by 2 @ Seahawks
3 (↓1)	Packers	1.0253 (LW × 1.0003)	14-1	Won by 14 vs Bears
4 (↑2)	Saints	1.0231 (LW × 1.0442)	12-3	Won by 29 vs Falcons
5 (↓1)	Steelers	1.0091 (LW × 1.0000)	11-4	Won by 27 vs Rams
6 (↓1)	Ravens	0.9798 (LW × 0.9832)	11-4	Won by 6 vs Browns
7 (-)	Falcons	0.9499 (LW × 0.9841)	9-6	Lost by 29 @ Saints
8 (↑2)	Eagles	0.9474 (LW × 1.0288)	7-8	Won by 13 @ Cowboys
9 (-)	Seahawks	0.9424 (LW × 1.0026)	7-8	Lost by 2 vs 49ers
10 (↓2)	Texans	0.9280 (LW × 0.9697)	10-5	Lost by 3 @ Colts
11 (↑3)	Bengals	0.9169 (LW × 1.0092)	9-6	Won by 7 vs Cardinals
12 (↑4)	Dolphins	0.9137 (LW × 1.0186)	5-10	Lost by 3 @ Patriots
13 (↑5)	Lions	0.9061 (LW × 1.0219)	10-5	Won by 28 vs Chargers
14 (↓3)	Cowboys	0.9002 (LW × 0.9781)	8-7	Lost by 13 vs Eagles
15 (↑2)	Cardinals	0.8954 (LW × 1.0030)	7-8	Lost by 7 @ Bengals
16 (↑4)	Giants	0.8919 (LW × 1.0410)	8-7	Won by 15 @ Jets
17 (↓5)	Jets	0.8639 (LW × 0.9431)	8-7	Lost by 15 vs Giants
18 (↓5)	Broncos	0.8621 (LW × 0.9428)	8-7	Lost by 26 @ Bills
19 (↓4)	Chargers	0.8592 (LW × 0.9543)	7-8	Lost by 28 @ Lions
20 (↑2)	Panthers	0.8485 (LW × 1.0185)	6-9	Won by 32 vs Buccaneers
21 (↓2)	Bears	0.8459 (LW × 0.9724)	7-8	Lost by 14 @ Packers
22 (↑1)	Titans	0.8345 (LW × 1.0108)	8-7	Won by 6 vs Jaguars
23 (↑1)	Raiders	0.8230 (LW × 1.0065)	8-7	Won by 3 @ Chiefs
24 (↓3)	Chiefs	0.8213 (LW × 0.9634)	6-9	Lost by 3 vs Raiders
25 (↑3)	Vikings	0.8145 (LW × 1.0236)	3-12	Won by 7 @ Redskins
26 (↑1)	Browns	0.8117 (LW × 1.0169)	4-11	Lost by 6 @ Ravens
27 (↓2)	Jaguars	0.8023 (LW × 0.9834)	4-11	Lost by 6 @ Titans
28 (↓2)	Redskins	0.7885 (LW × 0.9787)	5-10	Lost by 7 vs Vikings
29 (-)	Rams	0.7747 (LW × 1.0019)	2-13	Lost by 27 @ Steelers
30 (-)	Bills	0.7731 (LW × 1.0165)	6-9	Won by 26 vs Broncos
31 (↑1)	Colts	0.7554 (LW × 1.0397)	2-13	Won by 3 vs Texans
32 (↓1)	Buccaneers	0.7072 (LW × 0.9703)	4-11	Lost by 32 @ Panthers

Comments:

It seems like this was more of a "lose and you're out" weekend, rather than a "win and you're in". The Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, and Chargers were all eliminated by losing, and the Jets' loss puts them very much on the outside looking in.
The Falcons have the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Lions. They also have a home game against the lost-9-in-a-row Buccaneers, but at one game back of the Lions, they will also need the Lions to lose to the nothing-much-to-play-for Packers next week, or they will be on the road in the Super Dome for a rematch with the Saints on Wild Card Weekend.
Which means the Lions are a win away from clinching a trip to the (presumably) much weaker NFC East winner. The Lions beat the Cowboys week 4 in one of the Cowboys biggest melt-downs of the season.
After hitting an arrowhead-shaped speed bump last week, the Packers clinched the NFC's #1 seed, and (for the first time in franchise history) a 14-win season.
The Packers' defense has held their opponent under 400 yards just 5 times this season, and only twice since mid-October. Their high-powered offense is going to have to carry the load in the playoffs this time around.
APR has the Dolphins ranked at #12. They have five losses by 3 points or less. Of course, their other five losses are by 10 points or more. If they can get a decent quarterback, and keep him healty all season long, they could have a good chance to make a playoff run next year.

NFL Week 16 Picks

2011-12-21T11:26:00.000-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Texans @ Colts	Texans ρ=1.3171	Texans* δ=18.9	Texans -5½
Rams @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.3052	Steelers δ=15.7	Steelers -17
Browns @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.2485	Ravens δ=12.7	Ravens -13½
Broncos @ Bills	Broncos ρ=1.2023	Broncos* δ=0.9	Broncos -2½
Bears @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1782	Packers δ=9.0	Packers -13
Dolphins @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1744	Patriots δ=8.1	Patriots -10
Buccaneers @ Panthers	Panthers* ρ=1.1431	Panthers δ=7.0	Panthers -7½
49ers @ Seahawks	49ers ρ=1.0863	49ers* δ=8.6	49ers -1½
Giants @ Jets	Jets* ρ=1.0692	Jets δ=3.2	Jets -2½
Raiders @ Chiefs	Chiefs* ρ=1.0428	Raiders* δ=4.3	Chiefs -1
Cardinals @ Bengals	Bengals* ρ=1.0178	Bengals δ=2.8	Bengals -4
Chargers @ Lions	Chargers ρ=1.0155	Lions δ=2.2	Lions -1½
Falcons @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.0151	Saints δ=4.6	Saints -7
Vikings @ Redskins	Redskins* ρ=1.0125	Redskins δ=4.0	Redskins -6½
Jaguars @ Titans	Titans* ρ=1.0120	Titans δ=3.8	Titans -8
Eagles @ Cowboys	Eagles ρ=1.0006	Cowboys δ=0.6	Cowboys -1

Comments:

Lots of complicated playoff scenarios this week. The Falcons and Lions are the only teams with "win and in" scenarios.
The Packers will clinch the top NFC seed with a win this week. And if they can't beat the Bears without Cutler, Forte, and Knox, the Packers could be in for a very short, very ugly playoff run.
If the Colts defense shows up again this week, and they get some production out of their running game—could they really play spoiler to the Texans bye-week hopes? Given how awful the Colts have played (other than last Sunday), I'll have to file that under "I'll believe it when I see it".
Not so long ago, it looked like the 49ers would have an easy sweep of their division. Now they need to win out to stay ahead of the Saints for the remaining unclinched bye-week, which includes a trip to play the recently resurgent Seahawks in their home stadium. If you're looking for an upset pick this week, this game could be a good choice.
Thanks to virtually every other AFC power losing last week, the Patriots now have the inside track to that conference's #1 seed. But first they have to get by the resurgent power in their own division: the recently 5-2 Dolphins. The Patriots are tough at home, but 10 points seems like a lot to give for a team that couldn't hold the hapless Colts to more than 7...

NFL Week 15 APR vs. ESPN

2011-12-20T11:18:00.003-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 15 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Ah, at last a little controversy!

Lions (+9): In spite of their winning record, the Lions are just 4-5 in their last 9, and a narrow 1-point win (preserved by a last-second blocked field goal) against a struggling Raiders team doesn't suggest to me they've really turned the corner.
On the Bubble:: Nobody closer than the Raiders (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:: The Eagles (-8) are another team that has lived and died by their defense. They are 6-0 when they hold their opponent to 19 points or fewer, and 0-8 when they don't.; The Dolphins (-7) are 5-2 since the start of November, including that 1-point loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.; The Seahawks (-6) are also 5-2 since the start of November. They have wins over the Giants, Ravens, Eagles, and Bears.

2011 Week 15 Pick Results

2011-12-20T08:08:00.000-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-6)

Right:

Jaguars @ Falcons
Browns @ Cardinals
Bengals @ Rams
Saints @ Vikings
Cowboys @ Buccaneers
Dolphins @ Bills
Patriots @ Broncos
Lions @ Raiders

Wrong:

Packers @ Chiefs

It turns out the formula to beat the Packers is pretty much the same as it was last year: play good pass defense, ball control on offense, and hope that Rodgers has an off game passing. The fact that Rodgers was missing his #1 receiver Greg Jennings made the "bad game passing" part a lot easier.

Titans @ Colts

This was really the Colts defense finally showing up for a game. They forced 3 turnovers, including a pick-6, and generally kept the injured (Matt Hasselbeck), ineffective (Chris Johnson), and inexperienced (Jake Locker) Titans well in check. The Colts running game put up more than 200 yards, which meant that Dan Orlovsky only had to throw 17 times. The result was the most points scored in the season (and only the third time over 20 points), along with the fewest points allowed (and only the second time less than 24).

Ravens @ Chargers

The Ravens' defense has just not played well on the road this season. 4 of their 5 worst games in terms of yards allowed were @ Tennesse, @ San Diego, @ Pittsburgh, and @ Seattle. The Ravens went 1-3 in those games, and it doesn't bode well for them when they have to play away from Baltimore in the playoffs (even if that turns out to be Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis).

Panthers @ Texans

It's been a pretty easy formula for the Texans this year: they're 10-0 when they hold their opponents under 20 points, and 0-4 when they don't. Maybe that didn't matter that much this week, as T.J. Yates looked a lot more like an inexperienced rookie in this game. One thing is for sure—the Texans can't rely on Yates to carry them to any wins, especially once the playoffs start.

Redskins @ Giants

The Redskins defense just shut down the Giants. The Giants had six drives 21 yards or shorter. Of the five sustained drives they had, three ended (respectively) with a missed field goal, an interception, and a failed 4th down try. The other two resulted in 10 points, which wasn't nearly enough to win the game.

Seahawks @ Bears

As I noted last week, the Seahawks have been quietly looking pretty solid this year. And the Bears, without Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and now Johnny Knox, were simply no match for them.

Split Picks: (APR: 0-2, SRS 1-1, Line 2-0)

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

Well, I was wrong: the Eagles' defense had two good games in a row. The Jets only had one more yard rushing (94) than penalty yards (93), and Sanchez' passing (150 yards, 2 interceptions) was not able to make up the difference. And while the Eagles offense had a sloppy game (1 interception and 5 fumbles, 3 lost), they were able to move the ball efficiently enough when they did have it that the turnovers didn't much matter.

Steelers (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, Line)

Ben Roethlisberger's injured ankle was clearly a major issue, with 3 interceptions and 3 sacks at least partially attributable to his lack of mobility. Also, I suppose, the Steelers apparent complete lack of confidence in backup quarterbacks Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon.

Totals

Not the greatest week for anyone, although the Line doesn't fall back as far as APR or SRS.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	8-8	131-76-1	63.2%
SRS	9-7	135-72-1	65.1%
Line	10-6	137-71-0	65.8%

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

2011-12-19T23:01:00.001-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑4)	Patriots	1.0535 (LW × 1.0430)	11-3	Won by 18 @ Broncos
2 (↓1)	Packers	1.0249 (LW × 0.9457)	13-1	Lost by 5 @ Chiefs
3 (↑3)	49ers	1.0210 (LW × 1.0310)	11-3	Won by 17 vs Steelers
4 (↓2)	Steelers	1.0092 (LW × 0.9608)	10-4	Lost by 17 @ 49ers
5 (↓2)	Ravens	0.9965 (LW × 0.9500)	10-4	Lost by 20 @ Chargers
6 (↑1)	Saints	0.9798 (LW × 1.0027)	11-3	Won by 22 @ Vikings
7 (↑1)	Falcons	0.9652 (LW × 1.0034)	9-5	Won by 27 vs Jaguars
8 (↓4)	Texans	0.9570 (LW × 0.9146)	10-4	Lost by 15 vs Panthers
9 (↑5)	Seahawks	0.9399 (LW × 1.0547)	7-7	Won by 24 @ Bears
10 (↑10)	Eagles	0.9209 (LW × 1.0558)	6-8	Won by 26 vs Jets
11 (↑5)	Cowboys	0.9203 (LW × 1.0385)	8-6	Won by 16 @ Buccaneers
12 (↓2)	Jets	0.9161 (LW × 0.9758)	8-6	Lost by 26 @ Eagles
13 (↓4)	Broncos	0.9144 (LW × 0.9652)	8-6	Lost by 18 vs Patriots
14 (↓3)	Bengals	0.9086 (LW × 0.9789)	8-6	Won by 7 @ Rams
15 (-)	Chargers	0.9003 (LW × 1.0132)	7-7	Won by 20 vs Ravens
16 (↑5)	Dolphins	0.8971 (LW × 1.0294)	5-9	Won by 7 @ Bills
17 (↑2)	Cardinals	0.8927 (LW × 1.0195)	7-7	Won by 3 vs Browns
18 (↓5)	Lions	0.8866 (LW × 0.9868)	9-5	Won by 1 @ Raiders
19 (↓7)	Bears	0.8699 (LW × 0.9525)	7-7	Lost by 24 vs Seahawks
20 (↓2)	Giants	0.8567 (LW × 0.9760)	7-7	Lost by 13 vs Redskins
21 (↑3)	Chiefs	0.8526 (LW × 1.0193)	6-8	Won by 5 vs Packers
22 (↑5)	Panthers	0.8331 (LW × 1.0488)	5-9	Won by 15 @ Texans
23 (↓6)	Titans	0.8256 (LW × 0.9363)	7-7	Lost by 14 @ Colts
24 (↓1)	Raiders	0.8176 (LW × 0.9657)	7-7	Lost by 1 vs Lions
25 (↓3)	Jaguars	0.8158 (LW × 0.9562)	4-10	Lost by 27 @ Falcons
26 (↑5)	Redskins	0.8057 (LW × 1.0664)	5-9	Won by 13 @ Giants
27 (↓1)	Browns	0.7982 (LW × 0.9890)	4-10	Lost by 3 @ Cardinals
28 (↓3)	Vikings	0.7957 (LW × 0.9569)	2-12	Lost by 22 vs Saints
29 (↑1)	Rams	0.7732 (LW × 1.0116)	2-12	Lost by 7 vs Bengals
30 (↓2)	Bills	0.7606 (LW × 0.9721)	5-9	Lost by 7 vs Dolphins
31 (↓2)	Buccaneers	0.7288 (LW × 0.9435)	4-10	Lost by 16 vs Cowboys
32 (-)	Colts	0.7266 (LW × 1.0362)	1-13	Won by 14 vs Titans

Comments:

Congratulations to the Lions, who have clinched a winning season for the first time since 2000, and are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 1999.
Has there ever been a case of the wheels coming off a bandwagon faster than what's happened with the Packers in the last day and a half? The reality is, they played without their #1 receiver, without their most productive running back, and with a banged-up O-line, on the road against a team with a good defense (especially at home). It's not a surprise they struggled, and it should be to the defense's credit that 14 points was nearly enough to pull out a win.
The reality is, the talk of the 2011 Packers as "the best team ever" has been ridiculous, even before Sunday's loss. I wouldn't even put them as the best Packers team ever (just from my own experience, the 1996 Packers, with the #1 offense, #1 defense, and an MVP-caliber special teams unit, is a really high standard to surpass).
The Broncos and Cardinals now have 3 regular season overtime wins (each) in 2011, tying the record held by a number of other teams (most recently the 2010 Redskins). If you include the playoffs, the 2003 Panthers hold the record at 4 overtime wins. The 1983 Packers hold the record for most overall overtime games played in one (regular) season at 5, but with a record of 2-3-0.
I should note for any Bills or Buccaneers fans looking at these rankings, APR is a weighted algorithm, with less weight given to older games, and since both those teams are on long losing streaks, APR is giving their (very old) wins less and less weight each week.

NFL Week 15 Picks

2011-12-14T10:32:00.001-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Panthers @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.3172	Texans δ=12.0	Texans -6½
Packers @ Chiefs	Packers ρ=1.2957	Packers* δ=23.1	Packers -14
Titans @ Colts	Titans ρ=1.2576	Titans* δ=15.0	Titans -7
Bengals @ Rams	Bengals ρ=1.2143	Bengals* δ=13.1	Bengals -6½
Ravens @ Chargers	Ravens ρ=1.1805	Ravens* δ=7.9	Ravens -1½
Saints @ Vikings	Saints ρ=1.1751	Saints* δ=14.7	Saints -7
Redskins @ Giants	Giants ρ=1.1619	Giants δ=3.9	Giants -7
Cowboys @ Buccaneers	Cowboys ρ=1.1473	Cowboys* δ=10.5	Cowboys -7
Jaguars @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.1274	Falcons δ=6.1	Falcons -11½
Dolphins @ Bills	Dolphins ρ=1.1138	Dolphins* δ=4.1	Dolphins -1½
Browns @ Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.0850	Cardinals δ=2.7	Cardinals -6½
Jets @ Eagles	Jets ρ=1.0764	Jets* δ=3.8	Eagles -1
Patriots @ Broncos	Patriots ρ=1.0662	Patriots* δ=10.0	Patriots -6
Lions @ Raiders	Lions ρ=1.0613	Lions* δ=9.6	Lions -1
Steelers @ 49ers	Steelers ρ=1.0606	49ers δ=1.6	49ers -2½
Seahawks @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0248	Bears δ=5.3	Bears -3½

Comments:

The Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers have all reached the "win and in" point. They all have to travel to play AFC/NFC West teams.
Why does the Line like the Eagles? Maybe they have a chance if they have another good showing by their defense. But the Eagles have won back-to-back games just once all season (and that with the benefit of the bye-week in between); I don't see any reason to think the Eagles will have their second back-to-back win this week.
Everybody likes the Bears this week. But they haven't scored more than 20 points since Jay Cutler went down, and they haven't scored more than 10 points since Matt Forte went down. Unless they can score on defense and/or special teams, it could be very ugly for the Bears this week.
This could be a really ugly game for the Steelers. Their offense has given up 22 turnovers (the Jets (24) are the only playoff contending team with more), and the 49ers defense has generated 31 turnovers, second only to the Packers (31).
The Colts might have one last flickering hope of a win this season if Jake Locker has to play on Sunday in replacement of the injured Matt Hasselbeck. They'll also have to hope that Chris Johnson has another bad week rushing.

NFL Week 14 APR vs. ESPN

2011-12-13T12:11:00.001-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 14 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the Bubble:: The Raiders (+7) don't have a win over a quality team since they beat the Texans October 9th. And now they've got a couple really bad losses that probably knocked them out of the playoff race.; The Giants (+6) have some exciting playmakers, and (at least for the moment) lead their division. But ESPN's rank of #12 seems kind of high for a team that just broke a 4-game losing streak, and is only one win over .500.; ESPN makes note of the Bills (+6) 6-game losing streak, but still has them ranked out of the bottom 10 (although to be sure, there's some pretty stiff competition for the 10 worst teams of the league this year).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:: The Seahawks (-6) have racked up some pretty nice wins this season. If a couple games they really should have won (@ the Browns and vs. the Redskins) had gone their way, they'd be right in the middle of the playoff hunt. Even now, they're not totally out of it, although they would need a lot of help to have a chance.

NFL Week 14 Pick Results

2011-12-13T10:56:00.000-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-3)

Right:

Patriots @ Redskins
Falcons @ Panthers
Saints @ Titans
Colts @ Ravens
Browns @ Steelers
Raiders @ Packers
Vikings @ Lions
Chiefs @ Jets
Bills @ Chargers
Rams @ Seahawks

Wrong:

49ers @ Cardinals

Last week, I wrote that the Cardinals are not a very good team. Now I'm thinking that's not entirely fair. Their defense has really been doing well lately—the Cardinals haven't allowed more than 23 points since late October. And while the Cardinals' offense is often pretty ugly, a solid defensive effort means that they can win with just a handful of big plays, which is what happened Sunday.

Eagles @ Dolphins

I'm not sure what there is to say about this game, except that 1) the Eagles do a lot better when Michael Vick can play, and 2) the Eagles' on-again, off-again defense was on again, at least for this game.

Giants @ Cowboys

Another late lead blown. the Cowboys are 0-4 this year when they give up 27+ points. They've clearly improved over last year, but I wonder if DC Rob Ryan will get fired soon.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-0, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Texans (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)

The Texans' defense continues to carry them forward; a remarkable turn-around for a team that just last year lost again and again because their defense couldn't stop anybody.

Buccaneers (Line) @ Jaguars (APR, SRS)
This was just an implosion by the Buccaneers. A muffed punt, one 62-yard pass completion, a recovered fumble, and a short field off an interception gave the Jaguars 28 points, all in the second quarter. The Jaguars defense was easily able to make that hold for a win.

Bears (SRS) @ Broncos (APR, Line)
For the third time this season, the Broncos faced a struggling team, found an opportunity to tie the game late, and win in overtime. And Tim Tebow continues to improve as a passer—he passed for 200+ yards for just the second time in his career, and completed 20+ passes for the first time. He was also intercepted for just the second time this season. That's easily the lowest interceptions-to-pass-attempts ratio this year of any player that's thrown more than 100 passes.

Totals

Another very nice week for APR. And thanks to another relatively weak showing for the line, SRS is now just a half-game behind.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	13-3	123-68-1	64.3%
SRS	12-4	126-65-1	65.9%
Line	11-5	127-65-0	66.1%

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

2011-12-12T22:37:00.002-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.0837 (LW × 0.9960)	13-0	Won by 30 vs Raiders
2 (↑1)	Steelers	1.0503 (LW × 0.9983)	10-3	Won by 11 vs Browns
3 (↓1)	Ravens	1.0490 (LW × 0.9896)	10-3	Won by 14 vs Colts
4 (-)	Texans	1.0463 (LW × 1.0129)	10-3	Won by 1 @ Bengals
5 (-)	Patriots	1.0101 (LW × 0.9985)	10-3	Won by 7 @ Redskins
6 (-)	49ers	0.9903 (LW × 0.9827)	10-3	Lost by 2 @ Cardinals
7 (-)	Saints	0.9772 (LW × 0.9989)	10-3	Won by 5 @ Titans
8 (-)	Falcons	0.9619 (LW × 1.0118)	8-5	Won by 8 @ Panthers
9 (-)	Broncos	0.9474 (LW × 1.0061)	8-5	Won by 3 vs Bears
10 (↑1)	Jets	0.9388 (LW × 1.0077)	8-5	Won by 27 vs Chiefs
11 (↓1)	Bengals	0.9282 (LW × 0.9939)	7-6	Lost by 1 vs Texans
12 (-)	Bears	0.9133 (LW × 0.9963)	7-6	Lost by 3 @ Broncos
13 (-)	Lions	0.8985 (LW × 0.9831)	8-5	Won by 6 vs Vikings
14 (↑4)	Seahawks	0.8911 (LW × 1.0210)	6-7	Won by 17 vs Rams
15 (↑2)	Chargers	0.8886 (LW × 1.0081)	6-7	Won by 27 vs Bills
16 (↓1)	Cowboys	0.8862 (LW × 0.9783)	7-6	Lost by 3 vs Giants
17 (↓1)	Titans	0.8818 (LW × 0.9803)	7-6	Lost by 5 vs Saints
18 (↑2)	Giants	0.8778 (LW × 1.0185)	7-6	Won by 3 @ Cowboys
19 (↑3)	Cardinals	0.8756 (LW × 1.0346)	6-7	Won by 2 vs 49ers
20 (↑3)	Eagles	0.8722 (LW × 1.0464)	5-8	Won by 16 @ Dolphins
21 (↓7)	Dolphins	0.8714 (LW × 0.9586)	4-9	Lost by 16 vs Eagles
22 (↑2)	Jaguars	0.8532 (LW × 1.0285)	4-9	Won by 27 vs Buccaneers
23 (↓4)	Raiders	0.8466 (LW × 0.9821)	7-6	Lost by 30 @ Packers
24 (↓3)	Chiefs	0.8364 (LW × 0.9762)	5-8	Lost by 27 @ Jets
25 (-)	Vikings	0.8316 (LW × 1.0025)	2-11	Lost by 6 @ Lions
26 (↑3)	Browns	0.8071 (LW × 1.0134)	4-9	Lost by 11 @ Steelers
27 (-)	Panthers	0.7944 (LW × 0.9811)	4-9	Lost by 8 vs Falcons
28 (↓2)	Bills	0.7824 (LW × 0.9577)	5-8	Lost by 27 @ Chargers
29 (↓1)	Buccaneers	0.7725 (LW × 0.9626)	4-9	Lost by 27 @ Jaguars
30 (↑1)	Rams	0.7643 (LW × 0.9990)	2-11	Lost by 17 @ Seahawks
31 (↓1)	Redskins	0.7555 (LW × 0.9865)	4-9	Lost by 7 vs Patriots
32 (-)	Colts	0.7012 (LW × 1.0058)	0-13	Lost by 14 @ Ravens

Comments:

Not a lot of movement this week. The Packers are still way out in front, with the Steelers, Ravens, and Texans in a pretty close cluster, followed by another big gap down to the Patriots.
In week 8, the Broncos lost by 35 to the Lions, and APR dropped them to a #26 ranking. They've won every game since then, and this is the first week they haven't moved up in APR's ranking as a result.
Congradulations to the Texans, who have clinched the AFC South, and thus the first playoff berth in franchise history. They have also clinched their first-ever 10 win season.
The Packers have clinched a playoff spot higher than the Saints. Which seems like a pretty big deal, since a) the Saints seem like a team that has the best shot at beating them, but b) the Saints haven't been nearly as good when playing on the road.
The 49ers, who seemed like a lock for (at worst) the #2 seed, have taken a critical loss in their division, and are now in a no-margin-for-error race with the Saints for the remaining bye-week seed.
The Giants are the only division-leading team that hasn't made it to at least 8 wins yet.

NFL Week 14 Picks

2011-12-07T11:03:00.002-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Colts @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.5205	Ravens δ=23.9	Ravens -16½
Browns @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.3212	Steelers δ=12.2	Steelers -14
Patriots @ Redskins	Patriots ρ=1.3209	Patriots* δ=13.3	Patriots -9
Raiders @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.2622	Packers δ=14.9	Packers -11½
49ers @ Cardinals	49ers ρ=1.1907	49ers* δ=13.4	49ers -3½
Falcons @ Panthers	Falcons ρ=1.1742	Falcons* δ=6.1	Falcons -2½
Rams @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.1409	Seahawks δ=9.2	Seahawks -10
Texans @ Bengals	Texans ρ=1.1062	Texans* δ=8.5	Bengals -3
Vikings @ Lions	Lions ρ=1.1017	Lions δ=12.5	Lions -7
Eagles @ Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.0907	Dolphins δ=2.5	Dolphins -3
Saints @ Titans	Saints ρ=1.0876	Saints* δ=8.5	Saints -3½
Chiefs @ Jets	Jets* ρ=1.0874	Jets δ=12.4	Jets -9
Bills @ Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.0789	Chargers δ=1.1	Chargers -7
Giants @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.0510	Cowboys δ=4.3	Cowboys -3
Buccaneers @ Jaguars	Jaguars* ρ=1.0338	Jaguars δ=0.8	Buccaneers -1
Bears @ Broncos	Broncos* ρ=1.0272	Bears* δ=7.5	Broncos -3½

Comments:

The Patriots, Texans, Steelers, and Saints have all reached "with a win and help, they're in" playoff scenarios. The Saints' scenario seems pretty likely, as they need a win and one of the Falcons, Bears, or Lions to lose. (The line favors the Saints to win, but only the Bears will be line underdogs this week).
No line for Rams @ Seahawks at the moment. Presumably it will favor the Seahawks by something; the Rams may have to give former practice-squad quarterback Tom Brandstater his first start. As usual, I will (try to) update when a line becomes available. Update: done. The Seahawks haven't had a 10-point line since 2009 (they covered).
Given the way the Patriots are scrambling to find guys to play on defense, I'm not sure how confident I'd be that they can win by 9 this week.
The Chiefs seem to be all-or-nothing when it comes to their defense. They have 6 games where they held their opponent to 20 points or less, and 4 games where their opponent scored 31 or more. Whether the Jets can win by 9 is going to depend on which Chiefs defense shows up on game day.
Everybody likes the Cowboys to beat the Giants this week. But given the way those two played last Sunday, it seems like the Giants are the team better prepared to make a playoff run.

NFL Week 13 APR vs. ESPN

2011-12-06T11:40:00.001-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 13 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the Bubble:: As noted earlier, the Bills (+6) haven't won since October. Maybe APR has them ranked too low at #26, although the evidence to argue for a higher spot is pretty sparse.; ESPN has the Cowboys (+6) at #9, in spite of the fact that their last three games are an overtime win over the Redskins (ESPN #27), a 1-point win over the Dolphins (ESPN #21), and an overtime loss to the Cardinals (ESPN #18). That doesn't seem like a top-10 team to me, or APR.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:: ESPN again calls the Dolphins (-7) "the team no playoff hopeful wants to face", but has them ranked barely out of the bottom 10. It's certainly hard to make the case that they're worse than the Bills, ranked one spot higher by ESPN.

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

2011-12-06T09:47:00.001-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-4)

Right:

Packers @ Giants
Ravens @ Browns
Jets @ Redskins
Colts @ Patriots
Rams @ 49ers
Bengals @ Steelers
Lions @ Saints

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Bears

Tyler Palko managed to drive the Chiefs into field goal range, and complete a Hail Mary touchdown pass. For the Bears, Caleb Hanie did not play well at all (133 yards and 3 interceptions), Matt Forte left the game after 5 carries, and it wasn't ever enough to give the Bears defense a lead to protect.

Panthers @ Buccaneers

Josh Johnson actually had an OK game in replacement of Josh Freeman. The good news was he led the Bucs on four first-half scoring drives. The bad news was, they were all field goals, and the Panthers were scoring too, mostly touchdowns. The Buccaneers fell behind early and just didn't have enough to catch back up.

Cowboys @ Cardinals

The Cowboys had 336 yards from scrimmage, but too many of their drives stalled just beyond field goal range. The result was 5 punts, two missed field goals, only 13 points scored, and a tie game at the end of regulation. The Cardinals are not a very good team, but they can be dangerous, especially when games are close late.

Eagles @ Seahawks

Maybe the theme for this whole season should be "attitude matters". At 4-7, the Eagles were probably, but not definitely out of the playoff race. And when Vince Young's first pass from scrimmage was intercepted, I think whatever will the Eagles had to make a game of it was pretty well broken. Even though the game wasn't truly over until a late pick-6, it never seemed like the Eagles were a threat to take the lead.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-2, SRS 5-0, Line 2-3)

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

The interesting thing about this game is not that Tim Tebow and the Broncos knocked off yet another weak sister team. The interesting thing is that the Broncos had more yards passing (202) than rushing (150), and Tebow had a very respectable 10 completions and 2 touchdowns on 15 passing attempts. If he can consistently hit that level of productivity passing, I think Tebow really can be more than a short-term gimmick for the Broncos.

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)

I don't know why the line liked the Bills here. They haven't won a game since October, and with Fred Jackson on IR, that's not likely to change soon. And as long as Chris Johnson is playing well, the Titans are going to be a tough team to beat.

Falcons (Line) @ Texans (APR, SRS)

Looking back on their schedule, the Falcons have played two teams with notably good defenses: the Bears and Texans. Both times they struggled mightily. The Falcons only managed 50 yards rushing, and Matt Ryan had two interceptions and a completion rate well under 50%. T.J. Yates didn't have a great game, but it was better than Matt Ryans', and thanks to the Texans dominating defense, it was enough to get the Texans a win.

Raiders (APR) @ Dolphins (SRS, Line)

I only watched a bit of this game, but from what I saw, the Dolphins walked all over (or, in the case of Reggie Bush's touchdown, right through) the Raiders. The Raiders longest drive before garbage time was just 32 yards. The AFC West will probably belong to the Broncos if this is the best football the Raiders can play right now.

Chargers (SRS, Line) @ Jaguars (APR)

The Chargers played the team with the weakest scoring offense in the league, and not too surprisingly, managed to get a win. It's a mark of how bad that 6-game losing streak was, that APR dropped them below the Jaguars.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	10-6	110-65-1	62.6%
SRS	12-4	114-61-1	65.1%
Line	9-7	116-60-0	65.9%

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

2011-12-05T21:52:00.001-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.0880 (LW × 0.9737)	12-0	Won by 3 @ Giants
2 (-)	Ravens	1.0600 (LW × 1.0111)	9-3	Won by 14 @ Browns
3 (↑3)	Steelers	1.0521 (LW × 1.0331)	9-3	Won by 28 vs Bengals
4 (-)	Texans	1.0330 (LW × 1.0023)	9-3	Won by 7 vs Falcons
5 (↓2)	Patriots	1.0116 (LW × 0.9794)	9-3	Won by 7 vs Colts
6 (↓1)	49ers	1.0078 (LW × 0.9810)	10-2	Won by 26 vs Rams
7 (-)	Saints	0.9783 (LW × 0.9993)	9-3	Won by 14 vs Lions
8 (↑2)	Falcons	0.9507 (LW × 0.9884)	7-5	Lost by 7 @ Texans
9 (↑4)	Broncos	0.9417 (LW × 1.0216)	7-5	Won by 3 @ Vikings
10 (↑1)	Bengals	0.9339 (LW × 0.9804)	7-5	Lost by 28 @ Steelers
11 (↑3)	Jets	0.9317 (LW × 1.0189)	7-5	Won by 15 @ Redskins
12 (↓4)	Bears	0.9167 (LW × 0.9423)	7-5	Lost by 7 vs Chiefs
13 (↓4)	Lions	0.9139 (LW × 0.9499)	7-5	Lost by 14 @ Saints
14 (↑4)	Dolphins	0.9091 (LW × 1.0442)	4-8	Won by 20 vs Raiders
15 (↓3)	Cowboys	0.9059 (LW × 0.9738)	7-5	Lost by 6 @ Cardinals
16 (↓1)	Titans	0.8995 (LW × 0.9975)	7-5	Won by 6 @ Bills
17 (↑6)	Chargers	0.8814 (LW × 1.0360)	5-7	Won by 24 @ Jaguars
18 (↑4)	Seahawks	0.8729 (LW × 1.0209)	5-7	Won by 17 vs Eagles
19 (↓3)	Raiders	0.8620 (LW × 0.9683)	7-5	Lost by 20 @ Dolphins
20 (↓1)	Giants	0.8619 (LW × 0.9998)	6-6	Lost by 3 vs Packers
21 (↑7)	Chiefs	0.8568 (LW × 1.0576)	5-7	Won by 7 @ Bears
22 (↑4)	Cardinals	0.8464 (LW × 1.0205)	5-7	Won by 6 vs Cowboys
23 (↓6)	Eagles	0.8335 (LW × 0.9546)	4-8	Lost by 17 @ Seahawks
24 (↓3)	Jaguars	0.8296 (LW × 0.9700)	3-9	Lost by 24 vs Chargers
25 (-)	Vikings	0.8295 (LW × 0.9867)	2-10	Lost by 3 vs Broncos
26 (↓2)	Bills	0.8170 (LW × 0.9713)	5-7	Lost by 6 vs Titans
27 (↑3)	Panthers	0.8097 (LW × 1.0205)	4-8	Won by 19 @ Buccaneers
28 (↓8)	Buccaneers	0.8024 (LW × 0.9366)	4-8	Lost by 19 vs Panthers
29 (↓2)	Browns	0.7964 (LW × 0.9825)	4-8	Lost by 14 vs Ravens
30 (↓1)	Redskins	0.7658 (LW × 0.9630)	4-8	Lost by 15 vs Jets
31 (-)	Rams	0.7651 (LW × 1.0037)	2-10	Lost by 26 @ 49ers
32 (-)	Colts	0.6972 (LW × 1.0174)	0-12	Lost by 7 @ Patriots

Comments:

The Packers and 49ers have clinched their respective divisions. The Packers are one win or one Saints loss away from clinching a first-round bye. However, as long as the 49ers keep winning, the Packers will need to get to 15 wins to clinch the #1 seed, as the tie-breaker could easily go the 49ers way.
The Giants are not the first team to lead the Packers this season, but they are the first team to retake the lead once the Packers had it.
Joe Flacco only completed 10 passes on Sunday, but the Ravens get by the Browns with a win anyway, thanks to nearly 300 rushing yards by Ray Rice and Ricky Williams. The Ravens will need to keep winning to stay on pace with the Steelers, who could very easily win out their remaining schedule.
Was I wrong about how good the Dolphins are? They sure made it look like the Raiders were the team struggling for answers on Sunday. APR also has them in the top half of the rankings, easily the highest ranked team with a losing record.
The Texans' win over the Falcons all but eliminates the Titans from the race for the AFC South division crown. But the Titans are currently a tie-breaker away from the 6th seed (along with the Raiders and Jets), and so have a legitimate shot at a wildcard berth. Of all the 7-5 teams in contention for that spot, the Jets remaining schedule looks to be the easiest, but it could easily come down to the final games of the season.

NFL Q3 Strength of Schedule

2011-12-02T15:00:00.002-07:00

APR's strength of schedule (played and unplayed games) for each team, based on the week 12 power rankings. Note that this is not the same as the 'strength of schedule' metric mentioned in the official NFL tie breakers.

As usual, a higher value indicates a tougher schedule, lower values indicate an easier schedule.

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Browns	0.9888	23	0.8836
2	Rams	0.9737	14	0.8975
3	Colts	0.9704	12	0.9026
4	Chiefs	0.9601	25	0.8827
5	Panthers	0.9344	17	0.8932
6	Giants	0.9320	28	0.8814
7	Lions	0.9302	2	0.9231
8	Bengals	0.9300	27	0.8824
9	Vikings	0.9235	4	0.9177
10	Chargers	0.9163	7	0.9142
11	Raiders	0.9161	13	0.9010
12	Bills	0.9134	18	0.8929
13	Cardinals	0.9120	31	0.8705
14	Dolphins	0.9081	20	0.8874
15	Bears	0.9028	8	0.9131
16	Redskins	0.9022	32	0.8678
17	Falcons	0.8988	19	0.8877
18	Packers	0.8974	26	0.8826
19	Broncos	0.8954	9	0.9070
20	Saints	0.8894	30	0.8789
21	Seahawks	0.8878	11	0.9037
22	Eagles	0.8718	16	0.8936
23	Titans	0.8696	15	0.8963
24	Steelers	0.8671	10	0.9062
25	Buccaneers	0.8641	1	0.9439
26	Cowboys	0.8566	29	0.8803
27	Texans	0.8521	24	0.8829
28	Jaguars	0.8459	5	0.9167
29	Jets	0.8416	6	0.9164
30	49ers	0.8406	22	0.8858
31	Patriots	0.8187	21	0.8871
32	Ravens	0.8173	3	0.9198

Comments:

The Giants, Lions, and Bengals are the playoff-contending teams with the most difficult remainint schedule. The Giants have the biggest swing from easiest to hardest.
The Ravens, Patriots, 49ers, Jets, and Texans are the contending teams with the easiest remaining schedule. Which may not be the best news for the Ravens, who have not done well on the road against weak teams.
APR ranks the Packers' strength-of-schedule for games played as 26th hardest. They have played some teams in the top 10 (Saints, Bears, and Lions), but they've also played a lot of teams in the bottom 10 (Chargers, Vikings, Panthers, and Rams).

NFL Week 13 Picks

2011-11-30T09:50:00.002-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Colts @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.5073	Patriots δ=25.8	Patriots -20
Rams @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.3477	49ers δ=20.1	49ers -13
Packers @ Giants	Packers ρ=1.2962	Packers* δ=15.1	Packers -7
Ravens @ Browns	Ravens ρ=1.2935	Ravens* δ=14.7	Ravens -7
Chiefs @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.2008	Bears δ=18.4	Bears -8
Jets @ Redskins	Jets ρ=1.1498	Jets* δ=7.4	Jets -3
Cowboys @ Cardinals	Cowboys ρ=1.1216	Cowboys* δ=10.3	Cowboys -4½
Broncos @ Vikings	Broncos ρ=1.0965	Broncos* δ=3.1	Vikings -1½
Panthers @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.0800	Buccaneers δ=0.2	Buccaneers -3
Titans @ Bills	Titans ρ=1.0721	Titans* δ=1.7	Bills -1½
Falcons @ Texans	Texans* ρ=1.0715	Texans δ=5.9	Falcons -1
Bengals @ Steelers	Steelers* ρ=1.0692	Steelers δ=1.5	Steelers -7
Raiders @ Dolphins	Raiders ρ=1.0226	Dolphins δ=1.8	Dolphins -2½
Eagles @ Seahawks	Eagles ρ=1.0212	Eagles* δ=5.2	Eagles -2½
Lions @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.0175	Saints δ=1.0	Saints -9
Chargers @ Jaguars	Jaguars* ρ=1.0053	Chargers* δ=1.3	Chargers -1½

Comments:

No line for Broncos @ Vikings at the moment. Maybe waiting for status on whether Adrian Peterson will play? Hopefully I can update by Saturday. Update: done. Apparently the issue was Von Miller, the Broncos' stand-out rookie LB, and a big part of their defensive resurgence. He had thumb surgery this week, although reportedly he will play.
Patriots -20 is the widest line of the season so far, beating out a couple games with lines of -15½. Teams the line favored by 10 or more points are 19-2 (straight up) so far this season.
The Ravens with another road game at a weak opponent. They lost at the Titans, Jaguars, and Seahawks. With this and two other road games left, the Ravens need to break that streak to keep ahead of the Steelers.
The Titans may have to win out to have a chance to finish ahead of the Texans. They'll need a lot more of those 100+ yard rushing games from Chris Johnson to do it.
The Bengals are this years team that is 1) clearly doing better than last year, but 2) taking advantage of the weaker opponents on their schedule. They may get to the playoffs, but if they do, they'll probably play on the road, at an opponent almost certaily better than any team they've beat so far this season.

NFL Week 12 APR vs. ESPN

2011-11-29T11:02:00.000-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

We seem to have reached the late-season agreement phase earlier than usual this year.

On the Bubble:: Chiefs (+7), Redskins (+6), Raiders (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble: Jaguars (-8): Jack Del Rio (finally) fired as head coach today. The Jaguars have had 3 winning seasons in the last 12.
On the bubble: Dolphins (-8): ESPN's comment for the Dolphins is priceless:
Miami is the type of scrappy team no playoff contender wants to face. (Walker)
While the Dolphins are probably better than their 3-8 record, they're not that much better. The fact that the Cowboys needed a last-second field goal to beat them by 1 point says more about the Cowboys than it does about the Dolphins.; Any playoff contender worth the name has to be thinking "the Dolphins are the kind of team we need to be able to steamroll early and often".

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

2011-11-29T09:24:00.002-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (11-1)

Right:

Steelers @ Chiefs
Texans @ Jaguars
Panthers @ Colts
Packers @ Lions
Patriots @ Eagles
Browns @ Bengals
Vikings @ Falcons
Dolphins @ Cowboys
Bills @ Jets
Buccaneers @ Titans
Giants @ Saints

Wrong:

Redskins @ Seahawks

There's also a reason why Rex Grossman was the starting quarterback for the Bears as long as he was—he can, at times (and especially when he has a good supporting cast) play very well. The Seahawks managed to establish a 10-point fourth quarter lead, but "Good Rex" made a showing, driving the Redskins down the field for a couple late touchdowns, and it was more than the Seahawks could respond to.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-2, SRS 1-3, Line 2-2)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)

Beanie Wells racked up a single game franchise record 228 yards rushing, Larry Fitzgerald managed to get 55 yards receiving (in spite of John Skeltons' awful day passing), and Patrick Peterson got another punt return touchdown. Against one of the worst teams in the league, that was enough for a win.

Broncos (APR) @ Chargers (SRS, Line)

Isn't Philip Rivers supposed to be a good quarterback? His passing numbers (19/36, 188 yards, 1 td) sure didn't show it in this game. Tim Tebow was virtually as productive (9/18, 143 yards, 1 td) on half as many attempts. Mix in some very timid play calling, and the Chargers' losing streak is now at 6 games.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)

Thanks to their defense, the Bears were in this game right to the end. But Caleb Hanie's 3 interceptions (along with a general inability to sustain drives) were more than the Bears were able to overcome.

49ers (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)

As mentioned in the power rankings post, Frank Gore (39 yards on 14 carries) never got going in this game. Add in an astonishing 9 sacks on Alex Smith, and nearly 100 yards of penalties, and it's a wonder the 49ers managed to score even two field goals.

Totals

Another nice week of picks all around.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	13-3	100-59-1	62.8%
SRS	12-4	102-57-1	64.1%
Line	13-3	107-53-0	66.9%

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

2011-11-28T23:09:00.001-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.1174 (LW × 1.0185)	11-0	Won by 12 @ Lions
2 (↑1)	Ravens	1.0484 (LW × 1.0186)	8-3	Won by 10 vs 49ers
3 (↑2)	Patriots	1.0328 (LW × 1.0272)	8-3	Won by 18 @ Eagles
4 (↑2)	Texans	1.0306 (LW × 1.0255)	8-3	Won by 7 @ Jaguars
5 (↓3)	49ers	1.0274 (LW × 0.9773)	9-2	Lost by 10 @ Ravens
6 (↓2)	Steelers	1.0184 (LW × 1.0059)	8-3	Won by 4 @ Chiefs
7 (↑2)	Saints	0.9789 (LW × 1.0114)	8-3	Won by 25 vs Giants
8 (↓1)	Bears	0.9728 (LW × 0.9874)	7-4	Lost by 5 @ Raiders
9 (↓1)	Lions	0.9621 (LW × 0.9790)	7-4	Lost by 12 vs Packers
10 (↑1)	Falcons	0.9618 (LW × 1.0076)	7-4	Won by 10 vs Vikings
11 (↓1)	Bengals	0.9525 (LW × 0.9881)	7-4	Won by 3 vs Browns
12 (-)	Cowboys	0.9302 (LW × 0.9923)	7-4	Won by 1 vs Dolphins
13 (↑3)	Broncos	0.9218 (LW × 1.0268)	6-5	Won by 3 @ Chargers
14 (-)	Jets	0.9144 (LW × 1.0121)	6-5	Won by 4 vs Bills
15 (-)	Titans	0.9018 (LW × 1.0027)	6-5	Won by 6 vs Buccaneers
16 (↑3)	Raiders	0.8902 (LW × 1.0304)	7-4	Won by 5 vs Bears
17 (↓4)	Eagles	0.8731 (LW × 0.9639)	4-7	Lost by 18 vs Patriots
18 (↑4)	Dolphins	0.8706 (LW × 1.0253)	3-8	Lost by 1 @ Cowboys
19 (↓2)	Giants	0.8621 (LW × 0.9739)	6-5	Lost by 25 @ Saints
20 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8568 (LW × 1.0015)	4-7	Lost by 6 @ Titans
21 (-)	Jaguars	0.8552 (LW × 1.0047)	3-8	Lost by 7 vs Texans
22 (↓4)	Seahawks	0.8550 (LW × 0.9756)	4-7	Lost by 6 vs Redskins
23 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8507 (LW × 1.0034)	4-7	Lost by 3 vs Broncos
24 (↓1)	Bills	0.8411 (LW × 0.9907)	5-6	Lost by 4 @ Jets
25 (-)	Vikings	0.8407 (LW × 1.0118)	2-9	Lost by 10 @ Falcons
26 (-)	Cardinals	0.8294 (LW × 1.0057)	4-7	Won by 3 @ Rams
27 (-)	Browns	0.8105 (LW × 1.0180)	4-7	Lost by 3 @ Bengals
28 (-)	Chiefs	0.8101 (LW × 1.0264)	4-7	Lost by 4 vs Steelers
29 (-)	Redskins	0.7953 (LW × 1.0106)	4-7	Won by 6 @ Seahawks
30 (-)	Panthers	0.7934 (LW × 1.0123)	3-8	Won by 8 @ Colts
31 (-)	Rams	0.7623 (LW × 1.0016)	2-9	Lost by 3 vs Cardinals
32 (-)	Colts	0.6852 (LW × 0.9866)	0-11	Lost by 8 vs Panthers

Comments:

Whether it's caused by his broken finger, or something else, Matt Stafford has developed a big problem passing. He had 4 interceptions in the first 7 games of the season, and now has 9 in the last 3.
The 49ers have been leaning pretty heavily on Frank Gore's running game. As demonstrated Thursday night, it gets pretty ugly for them when they face a defense that can shut him down.
You can add "injury prone" to Matt Leinart's woes. One of the reasons he lost the start to Kurt Warner in Arizona? He broke his collar bone 5 games into the 2007 season.
The good news for the Texans is that a win over the hapless Colts in week 16 will give them the tie-breaker over the second-place Titans. That, and one other win will get them to at least 10 wins, which is probably more than the Titans can surpass.
The other good news for the Texans is they do have 5 regular season games left to get whomever their quarterback is going to be up to speed and ready for the playoffs.
The playoff picture is starting to clear up, at least in the NFC. The Packers and 49ers have reached the win-and-in point (although the Packers need a win and help to clinch their division).
The Broncos now have a winning record. Say what you will about Tim Tebow, the Broncos are playing noticably better since they benched Kyle Orton. Attitude makes a difference.

NFL Week 12 Picks

2011-11-23T13:32:00.003-07:00

Update: somehow I missed a line for Patriots @ Eagles. Now added.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Steelers @ Chiefs	Steelers ρ=1.2827	Steelers* δ=17.8	Steelers -10½
Browns @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.2107	Bengals δ=9.3	Bengals -7
Texans @ Jaguars	Texans ρ=1.1806	Texans* δ=13.9	Texans -3
Vikings @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.1489	Falcons δ=9.6	Falcons -9½
Bears @ Raiders	Bears ρ=1.1403	Bears* δ=12.5	Raiders -4½
Panthers @ Colts	Panthers ρ=1.1284	Panthers* δ=13.0	Panthers -3½
Packers @ Lions	Packers ρ=1.1163	Packers* δ=3.6	Packers -6
Redskins @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.1136	Seahawks δ=1.4	Seahawks -3½
Patriots @ Eagles	Patriots ρ=1.1100	Patriots* δ=5.2	Patriots -3
Dolphins @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.1040	Cowboys δ=6.0	Cowboys -7
Giants @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.0935	Saints δ=7.3	Saints -7
Cardinals @ Rams	Cardinals ρ=1.0836	Cardinals* δ=6.2	Rams -3
Bills @ Jets	Jets ρ=1.0642	Jets δ=3.9	Jets -8
Broncos @ Chargers	Broncos ρ=1.0588	Chargers δ=0.8	Chargers -7
Buccaneers @ Titans	Titans* ρ=1.0513	Titans δ=4.1	Titans -3
49ers @ Ravens	49ers* ρ=1.0214	49ers* δ=2.8	Ravens -3

Comments:

I wonder if NBC regrets not flexing Steelers @ Chiefs? There's not a lot of alternate choices, but this has real potential to be another blow-out snoozer.
CBS Sports has a nice "if the season ended today" playoff ranking. The Packers and 49ers can both clinch a playoff spot this week with a win and help.
The AFC race is really tight. There are 10 teams with 5, 6, or 7 wins right now. Nobody's spot on that list is anywhere near safe just yet.
If the Texans beat the struggling Jaguars and Colts, they will have the tie-breaker over the currently 2nd-place Titans. That will also get them to 9 wins, which could easily be all it takes to finish ahead of the Titans.

NFL Week 11 APR vs. ESPN

2011-11-22T12:23:00.000-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 11 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

The Giants move to (+5), and off the bubble. ESPN's rank of #12 seems high, but with games coming up against the Saints, Packers, Cowboys, and Jets, they will have their chance to prove they belong there, or fall lower.

On the Bubble:: Saints (+6), Chiefs (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:: Jaguars (-7)

NFL Week 11 Pick Results

2011-11-22T10:24:00.000-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-2)

Right:

Cowboys @ Redskins
Raiders @ Vikings
Buccaneers @ Packers
Cardinals @ 49ers
Panthers @ Lions
Chargers @ Bears
Titans @ Falcons
Bengals @ Ravens
Chiefs @ Patriots

Wrong:

Jets @ Broncos

The Broncos only had two drives that didn't end with a punt, lost fumble, or giving the ball over on downs. All the Jets needed to do to win this game was 1) put a couple touchdowns on the scoreboard, 2) take care of the ball, and 3) stop the Broncos run game. They failed on all three counts.

Jaguars @ Browns

The Browns offense continued to struggle, but unlike last week, they did manage to get to the endzone a couple times. And that was enough to get past the Jaguars, who, for the 6th time this season, fell short of 14 points scored.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-2, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins(Line)

The Dolphins only managed two sustained drives, but they both ended in touchdowns. Their defense intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick twice, giving their offense two short fields and two more touchdowns. The Dolphins' special teams added another touchdown, and the end result was way more than the Bills could recover from.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)

I'm not really sure why the Line liked the Rams in this game. While the Seahawks are not a good team, the Rams have a well-deserved spot at the bottom of the power rankings.

Eagles (SRS) @ Giants (APR, Line)

If the Eagles' defense had been playing consistently at this level all season, the "Dream Team" title would not be a joke. The Giants did not have a drive longer than 16 yards until late in the first half, and only had 3 sustained drives the whole game. Vince Young looked predictably rusty on offense, but the Eagles' dominating defense was able to cover for his mistakes and carry their team to a win.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	10-4	87-56-1	60.8%
SRS	11-3	90-53-1	62.8%
Line	10-4	94-50-0	65.2%

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

2011-11-21T23:20:00.000-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.0971 (LW × 0.9853)	10-0	Won by 9 vs Buccaneers
2 (-)	49ers	1.0512 (LW × 1.0073)	9-1	Won by 16 vs Cardinals
3 (-)	Ravens	1.0292 (LW × 1.0102)	7-3	Won by 7 vs Bengals
4 (↑1)	Steelers	1.0124 (LW × 1.0019)	7-3	Bye
5 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0055 (LW × 0.9918)	7-3	Won by 31 vs Chiefs
6 (-)	Texans	1.0050 (LW × 1.0098)	7-3	Bye
7 (↑1)	Bears	0.9852 (LW × 1.0094)	7-3	Won by 11 vs Chargers
8 (↓1)	Lions	0.9828 (LW × 1.0054)	7-3	Won by 14 vs Panthers
9 (↑1)	Saints	0.9679 (LW × 1.0008)	7-3	Bye
10 (↓1)	Bengals	0.9639 (LW × 0.9926)	6-4	Lost by 7 @ Ravens
11 (↑1)	Falcons	0.9546 (LW × 1.0134)	6-4	Won by 6 vs Titans
12 (↓1)	Cowboys	0.9375 (LW × 0.9908)	6-4	Won by 3 @ Redskins
13 (↑4)	Eagles	0.9058 (LW × 1.0181)	4-6	Won by 7 @ Giants
14 (↓1)	Jets	0.9035 (LW × 0.9891)	5-5	Lost by 4 @ Broncos
15 (↑1)	Titans	0.8993 (LW × 1.0020)	5-5	Lost by 6 @ Falcons
16 (↑2)	Broncos	0.8977 (LW × 1.0195)	5-5	Won by 4 vs Jets
17 (↓3)	Giants	0.8852 (LW × 0.9740)	6-4	Lost by 7 vs Eagles
18 (↑3)	Seahawks	0.8764 (LW × 1.0332)	4-6	Won by 17 @ Rams
19 (↑1)	Raiders	0.8640 (LW × 1.0105)	6-4	Won by 6 @ Vikings
20 (↑3)	Buccaneers	0.8555 (LW × 1.0148)	4-6	Lost by 9 @ Packers
21 (↓2)	Jaguars	0.8513 (LW × 0.9920)	3-7	Lost by 4 @ Browns
22 (↑4)	Dolphins	0.8491 (LW × 1.0448)	3-7	Won by 27 vs Bills
23 (↓8)	Bills	0.8490 (LW × 0.9455)	5-5	Lost by 27 @ Dolphins
24 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8478 (LW × 1.0007)	4-6	Lost by 11 @ Bears
25 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8309 (LW × 0.9879)	2-8	Lost by 6 vs Raiders
26 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.8247 (LW × 0.9927)	3-7	Lost by 16 @ 49ers
27 (↑4)	Browns	0.7962 (LW × 1.0253)	4-6	Won by 4 vs Jaguars
28 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.7893 (LW × 1.0044)	4-6	Lost by 31 @ Patriots
29 (↓2)	Redskins	0.7870 (LW × 0.9828)	3-7	Lost by 3 vs Cowboys
30 (↓2)	Panthers	0.7837 (LW × 0.9872)	2-8	Lost by 14 @ Lions
31 (↓1)	Rams	0.7610 (LW × 0.9735)	2-8	Lost by 17 vs Seahawks
32 (-)	Colts	0.6945 (LW × 1.0044)	0-10	Bye

Comments:

The Eagles are easily the highest ranked team with a losing record. But there's still a lot of teams between them and a playoff spot. And with losses to teams like the Bills and Cardinals, I'm not sure I'd call any game a "likely win" for them.
The Dolphins are another team making noise about "running the table" and getting into the playoffs. My rule of thumb is that once it gets to be Thanksgiving, any team more than a couple wins out of the playoff race is done. Right now, the Colts are still the only AFC team with a worse record than the Dolphins.
The Chiefs looked really bad Monday night. Especially without Matt Cassel, they may not win another game this season.
And the Giants lose another game they really should've won. It will be interesting to see how far down ESPN moves them in the power rankings.
In the Bills 5 wins, their defense generated a total of 16 turnovers. In their 5 losses, their defense generated 4. Not coincidentally, the Bills scored 31+ points in 4 of their first 5 games. They didn't score 31 points total in their last 3.

NFL Week 11 Picks

2011-11-16T10:18:00.001-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Buccaneers @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.3209	Packers δ=18.3	Packers -14
Chiefs @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.2902	Patriots δ=19.7	Patriots -14½
Cardinals @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.2562	49ers δ=15.2	49ers -9½
Panthers @ Lions	Lions ρ=1.2314	Lions δ=12.3	Lions -7
Cowboys @ Redskins	Cowboys ρ=1.1816	Cowboys* δ=11.0	Cowboys -8
Chargers @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.1520	Bears δ=12.3	Bears -3½
Jaguars @ Browns	Jaguars ρ=1.1051	Jaguars* δ=3.5	Jaguars -1
Bills @ Dolphins	Bills ρ=1.1050	Bills* δ=5.3	Dolphins -1
Seahawks @ Rams	Seahawks ρ=1.0851	Seahawks* δ=6.0	Rams -1
Titans @ Falcons	Falcons* ρ=1.0496	Falcons δ=3.1	Falcons -5½
Bengals @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0492	Ravens δ=5.0	Ravens -7
Jets @ Broncos	Jets ρ=1.0375	Jets* δ=8.8	Jets -4½
Eagles @ Giants	Giants* ρ=1.0215	Eagles* δ=2.8	Giants -3
Raiders @ Vikings	Raiders ρ=1.0166	Raiders* δ=1.3	Raiders -1½

Bye: Texans, Colts, Saints, Steelers

Comments:

Some close lines for games maching up some pretty bad teams. Though I'm surprised the Raiders are only getting -1½; Carson Palmer (mostly) played pretty well Thursday night. But their defense has been pretty bad against the run, so Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin could get a lot of yards.
The 49ers are 6-2 against the Cardinals in their last 8 meedings. Oddly, one team or the other has swept this series every year but one since realignment.
Even with a 6-game lead in the NFC West, the 49ers are still a ways away from clinching the division. They won't get to 11 wins before December, which is what they'll need to clinch, given the Seahawks are hitting a soft spot in their schedule, and could easily get to 5-6.
Michael Vick has a rib injury, and may not play on Sunday. The way the Eagles have been playing lately, it may not matter.
Matt Cassel is also injured, which means that it's "go time" for backup Tyler Palko, who only has thirteen passes on his career stat line.

NFL Week 10 APR vs. ESPN

2011-11-15T14:00:00.001-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 10 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+7) (On the bubble): The Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals all pulled off unlikely wins this week, making the Giants somewhat unimpressive record against them look (at least for the moment) somewhat better.; APR and ESPN have both been moving the Giants up the rankings since they first appeared on this list in week 5. Maybe APR had the Giants underrated in week 5, but they did have a pretty awful start to the season, and they've still got some tough games left to go.
(Also) On the bubble:: Chiefs (+8), Saints (+7)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:: Jaguars (-6)

NFL Week 10 Pick Results

2011-11-15T10:43:00.001-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-5)

Right:

Jaguars @ Colts
Texans @ Buccaneers
Giants @ 49ers
Vikings @ Packers

Wrong:

Cardinals @ Eagles

When the Eagles play poorly, they don't go for half-measures. Their offense had 11 drives end with a punt, interception, or failed 4th down try. The defense did better, putting a touchdown on the board, and holding the Cardinals to 14 points for most of the game. But then, with the game on the line, they let John Skelton drive the Cardinals' offense 87 yards for what turned out to be the winning touchdown.

Rams @ Browns

The good news for the Browns was they held the Rams to 13 points, and managed to mount 5 sustained drives on offense. The bad news for the Browns is that those 5 drives ended with field goal attempts, and the last one missed. And once again, it's looking very much like the Browns won't make it past 5 wins on the season.

Chargers @ Raiders

The Chargers are not a good team. A lot of it, I think, comes down to attitude. Compare the Packers defense's response to giving up 38 points to the Chargers (in spite of coming away with a win) versus Philip Rivers shrugging off a 4-game losing streak by saying "it's been worse". The Raiders' motto "Just Win, Baby" may seem trite, but beats "it's been worse", in more ways than one.

Ravens @ Seahawks

Is there any figuring the Ravens this season? Another weak opponent, another breakdown. The Ravens weren't able to run the ball (just 75 yards on a defense that got shredded for 163 yards a week ago), they turned the ball over 3 times, and (most shocking of all), the Ravens defense was not able to stop the Seahawks from mounting a final drive that used up the final 5:52 of the game clock, denying their offense even a chance at a tying score.

Lions @ Bears

This was a classic win for the Bears: the defense scores, special teams scores, the opponent throws lots of passes to the Bears' defense, and the Bears' offense doesn't have to do anything except take advantage of the short fields the defense provides. As for the Lions, Matt Stafford looked really awful, filling the air with balls including 4 interceptions. The Lions need to start Shaun Hill until Stafford is healthy, or their playoff chances are going to slip away again.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-4, SRS 3-4, Line 4-3)

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Chiefs (Line)

Speaking of attitudes in the locker room, I think we're seeing another example of that making a difference with Tim Tebow and the Broncos. The bad news is you have to wonder how many games the Broncos can play running the ball 50+ times. Surprisingly, it's not that uncommon, but nobody's done it even 4 times in a season since the '87 Bengals.

Titans (APR) @ Panthers (SRS, Line)

Have teams figured out how to defend against Cam Newton? After some gaudy passing stats early, his numbers have become much more ordinary. In this game, the Panthers only had two drives longer than 48 yards, and they both ended in a turnover. The Titans offense had some ugly stats on offense too (5 punts and an interception), but were able to sustain enough drives to win easily.

Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)

The Jets just didn't seem ready for this game. In spite of the (supposedly) weak Patriots defense, the Jets only mounted 3 sustained drives, one of which ended in a missed field goal. And whatever faults the Patriots may have, Tom Brady is still a very good quarterback, and Bill Belichick is still a very good coach, and they are still capable of putting a lot of points on the board.

Redskins (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins (Line)

The Redskins haven't won a game since Tim Hightower went down for the season. Since then, they've been averaging 53.4 rushing yards per game, putting a lot of pressure on their quarterback. As a result (and, as I suspected), the Redskins were no match for the not-as-bad-as-they-seemed Dolphins.

Steelers (Line) @ Bengals (APR, SRS)

The Steelers defense was able to hold Andy Dalton in check (50% completion rate, 170 yards, 2 tds and 2 interceptions). The Bengals were able to score 17 points, but it wasn't enough to keep up with the Steelers.

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

The Bills defense didn't have an anwer for the Cowboys passing game: Tony Romo threw for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns, including a lot of deep balls. Ryan Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, had a lot of trouble passing, overthrowing a lot of his receivers, and throwing 3 interceptions along the way.

Saints (SRS, Line) @ Falcons (APR)

For those playing along at home, the answer is "no, you do not go for it on 4th and 1 from your own 29 in overtime." The Falcons defense had forced the Saints to punt the previous two times they had the ball (including once in overtime). Especially playing at home, you've got to give your defense a chance to make a stop, even if they are facing Drew Brees.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	7-9	77-52-1	59.6%
SRS	7-9	79-50-1	61.2%
Line	8-8	84-46-0	64.6%

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

2011-11-14T23:17:00.003-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.1135 (LW × 0.9855)	9-0	Won by 38 vs Vikings
2 (-)	49ers	1.0436 (LW × 0.9821)	8-1	Won by 7 vs Giants
3 (↑1)	Ravens	1.0188 (LW × 0.9971)	6-3	Lost by 5 @ Seahawks
4 (↑2)	Patriots	1.0138 (LW × 1.0304)	6-3	Won by 21 @ Jets
5 (↑5)	Steelers	1.0105 (LW × 1.0592)	7-3	Won by 7 @ Bengals
6 (↑7)	Texans	0.9953 (LW × 1.0457)	7-3	Won by 28 @ Buccaneers
7 (↓4)	Lions	0.9775 (LW × 0.9435)	6-3	Lost by 24 @ Bears
8 (-)	Bears	0.9761 (LW × 1.0027)	6-3	Won by 24 vs Lions
9 (↓4)	Bengals	0.9711 (LW × 0.9733)	6-3	Lost by 7 vs Steelers
10 (↓1)	Saints	0.9671 (LW × 0.9967)	7-3	Won by 3 @ Falcons
11 (↑4)	Cowboys	0.9462 (LW × 1.0181)	5-4	Won by 37 vs Bills
12 (↓5)	Falcons	0.9420 (LW × 0.9637)	5-4	Lost by 3 vs Saints
13 (↓2)	Jets	0.9135 (LW × 0.9582)	5-4	Lost by 21 vs Patriots
14 (↑2)	Giants	0.9089 (LW × 1.0072)	6-3	Lost by 7 @ 49ers
15 (↓3)	Bills	0.8980 (LW × 0.9431)	5-4	Lost by 37 @ Cowboys
16 (↑4)	Titans	0.8975 (LW × 1.0401)	5-4	Won by 27 @ Panthers
17 (↓3)	Eagles	0.8897 (LW × 0.9553)	3-6	Lost by 4 vs Cardinals
18 (↑1)	Broncos	0.8805 (LW × 1.0174)	4-5	Won by 7 @ Chiefs
19 (↑3)	Jaguars	0.8581 (LW × 1.0252)	3-6	Won by 14 @ Colts
20 (↑4)	Raiders	0.8550 (LW × 1.0244)	5-4	Won by 7 @ Chargers
21 (↑6)	Seahawks	0.8482 (LW × 1.0410)	3-6	Won by 5 vs Ravens
22 (↓5)	Chargers	0.8473 (LW × 0.9523)	4-5	Lost by 7 vs Raiders
23 (↓5)	Buccaneers	0.8430 (LW × 0.9478)	4-5	Lost by 28 vs Texans
24 (↓3)	Vikings	0.8411 (LW × 0.9757)	2-7	Lost by 38 @ Packers
25 (↑3)	Cardinals	0.8307 (LW × 1.0357)	3-6	Won by 4 @ Eagles
26 (↑3)	Dolphins	0.8127 (LW × 1.0217)	2-7	Won by 11 vs Redskins
27 (↓4)	Redskins	0.8008 (LW × 0.9591)	3-6	Lost by 11 @ Dolphins
28 (↓3)	Panthers	0.7938 (LW × 0.9531)	2-7	Lost by 27 vs Titans
29 (↓3)	Chiefs	0.7858 (LW × 0.9605)	4-5	Lost by 7 vs Broncos
30 (↑1)	Rams	0.7817 (LW × 1.0253)	2-7	Won by 1 @ Browns
31 (↓1)	Browns	0.7765 (LW × 0.9932)	3-6	Lost by 1 vs Rams
32 (-)	Colts	0.6915 (LW × 0.9709)	0-10	Lost by 14 vs Jaguars

Comments:

A dominating performance by the Packers Monday Night, and one of the best showings on defense all season. And with a 3-game lead on the Lions and Bears, the Packers will win the NFC North, barring a pretty epic collapse.
The Ravens drop in power after losing to the low-ranked Seahawks, but (as far as APR is concerned), helped by the fact that nearly every team they've played so far won this weekend. The Lions take a bigger hit, and there's nobody to keep them from moving up a spot in the rankings.
The Patriots are just a hair behind though, thanks to a very impressive road win in the division.
The Texans losing Matt Schaub really hurts. I've seen Matt Leinart play quarterback, and he's mostly unimpressive on his good days. Worse, Leinart's best days playing are all at least 4 years ago. The only other QB on the Texans' roster right now is rookie (5th round pick) Taylor Yates.
One of the keys to the Bears' winning streak has been protecting Cutler—after giving up 14 sacks in the first 3 games of the season, they've only given up 9 in the 6 games since then. And at 6-3, they have to be one of the favorites to clinch a wildcard berth.
And barring some kind of fluke opponent collapse, it's starting to look like the Colts will finish the season 0-16. They've just collapsed in every phase of the game, and haven't come close to a win since early October.

NFL Week 9 APR vs. ESPN

2011-11-09T15:54:00.001-07:00

I just noticed I forgot to post this Tuesday afternoon...

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 9 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+10): An impressive win for the Giants this week (but you can ask the Eagles what one impressive win is worth). APR moves them up 5 spots, but ESPN moves them up 3. Still no decision here, and the Giants have a lot of tough opponents yet to play.
On the bubble:: Chiefs (+7)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:: Falcons (-6), Patriots (-6)

NFL Week 10 Picks

2011-11-09T10:22:00.000-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Vikings @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.3108	Packers δ=13.9	Packers -14
Ravens @ Seahawks	Ravens ρ=1.2540	Ravens* δ=15.6	Ravens -6½
Giants @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.1775	49ers δ=11.4	49ers -3
Jaguars @ Colts	Jaguars ρ=1.1753	Jaguars* δ=13.0	Jaguars -3
Cardinals @ Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.1613	Eagles δ=10.5	Eagles -14
Texans @ Buccaneers	Texans ρ=1.0702	Texans* δ=8.4	Texans -3
Raiders @ Chargers	Chargers* ρ=1.0660	Chargers δ=2.9	Chargers -7
Lions @ Bears	Lions ρ=1.0642	Lions* δ=4.4	Bears -2½
Broncos @ Chiefs	Broncos ρ=1.0578	Broncos* δ=4.9	Chiefs -3
Redskins @ Dolphins	Redskins ρ=1.0497	Redskins* δ=2.4	Dolphins -4
Steelers @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.0458	Bengals δ=0.4	Steelers -3
Titans @ Panthers	Titans ρ=1.0361	Panthers δ=2.9	Panthers -3
Patriots @ Jets	Patriots* ρ=1.0321	Patriots* δ=0.0	Jets -1
Rams @ Browns	Browns* ρ=1.0255	Browns δ=1.9	Browns -2½
Bills @ Cowboys	Bills ρ=1.0246	Bills* δ=3.1	Cowboys -5
Saints @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.0074	Saints* δ=4.2	Saints -1

Comments:

This week is acually one of the best remaining chances the Colts have to get a win this season. The Panthers (#25) are their only remaining opponent ranked lower than the Jaguars (#22).
The Dolphins are favored to win a game! Looking back, I'm not sure the Line is wrong here. Even when the Redskins were winning, they barely got by against some bad teams (Cardinals, Rams), and they haven't finished within 7 points of a win in more than a month. I'm not ready to hop on the Dolphins bandwagon after one win, but this does seem like a game they can win.
The Buccaneers 4-2 start is going to seem like a long time ago if they can't pull out a home win against the Texans this week. With a trip to Green Bay as a follow-up, they could find themselves in a 4-6 hole, and likely out of the playoffs very easily.
The Bears are another team backed into a corner. They've already lost once to the Lions, so a loss this week will mean a season sweep, and almost certainly lock the Bears into a 3rd-place finish in the NFC North. If the Bears win, both teams will be at 6-3, and the Bears will have a much better chance to contend for a wildcard spot down the stretch.
Last week, the Patriots lost at home for the first time since Matt Cassel was subbing for an injured Tom Brady. If they lose again this week, it will be the first 3-game losing streak since the 2002 season. I wonder how close Bill Bellichick is to being on the hot seat? It's been 4 years since the Patriots have won a playoff game, and 7 years since thier last Super Bowl win...

NFL Week 9 Pick Results

2011-11-08T09:50:00.002-07:00

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-4)

Right:

Falcons @ Colts
49ers @ Redskins
Packers @ Chargers
Browns @ Texans
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Buccaneers @ Saints
Rams @ Cardinals

Wrong:

Dolphins @ Chiefs

Maybe the Dolphins aren't that awful? Looking back, there's been a few games where they've been close (or even leading) in the 4th quarter, but just not able to get to a win. Whereas the Chiefs are clearly not as good as their (now former) 4-game winning streak. Anyone who had the Chiefs penciled in to contend for the AFC West needs to get their erasers out.

Giants @ Patriots

The Patriots haven't scored more than 20 points in their last 3 games, which is putting more pressure on their defense than it can really stand—they've only held their opponent under 20 points twice this season. And even the Giants can score well into the 20s when they get 4 extra chances at the ball.

Jets @ Bills

Virtually every one of the Bills' wins this season have come against teams having a major melt-down for at least some of the game. When they've played good teams that played solidly for 60 minutes (as in this game), they just haven't won.

Broncos @ Raiders

If you're playing the Tebow-lead Broncos, don't you stack up 9 guys against the run, and let your two fastest corners drop back to defend against the pass? Tim Tebow had 124 yards passing, mostly on 4 completions. If the Raiders defense stops the run, and they don't make any big mistakes on offense or special teams, they win easily. But the Broncos put up 299 yards rushing, Carson Palmer threw 3 interceptions, and special teams gave up an 85 yard punt return touchdown.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-1, SRS 3-0, Line 0-3)

Wow, the Line goes 0-fer on split picks this week!

Bengals (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)

The Titans played very well in the first half: on offense, 3 long drives ending with a score; on defense stifling the Bengals except for one long drive. Apparently, the Bengals were able to make some half-time adjustments and the Titans weren't, because in the second half, all that changed. The Titans only had one second-half drive longer than 24 yards, and the defense gave up two long scoring drives.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

As advertised, a close game, and certainly not an embarrassment for the Steelers like their week 1 matchup against the Ravens. But when their defense gives up a 92-yard touchdown drive with the game on the line, they're clearly still not up to full strength.

Bears (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)

The Bears' defense won this game for them. The Bears got out-scored 3-14 in the 3rd quarter, and appeared to be losing control of the game. But in the 4th quarter, the Bears' defense held the Eagles to 3 scoreless drives, non longer than 37 yards, which gave their offense a chance to pull back into the lead, and ultimately win the game.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	9-5	70-43-1	61.8%
SRS	10-4	72-41-1	63.6%
Line	7-7	76-38-0	66.7%

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

2011-11-07T23:21:00.001-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.1299 (LW × 1.0180)	8-0	Won by 7 @ Chargers
2 (-)	49ers	1.0626 (LW × 0.9977)	7-1	Won by 8 @ Redskins
3 (↑2)	Lions	1.0360 (LW × 0.9975)	6-2	Bye
4 (↑2)	Ravens	1.0218 (LW × 1.0184)	6-2	Won by 3 @ Steelers
5 (↑2)	Bengals	0.9977 (LW × 1.0061)	6-2	Won by 7 @ Titans
6 (↓2)	Patriots	0.9839 (LW × 0.9458)	5-3	Lost by 4 vs Giants
7 (↑2)	Falcons	0.9775 (LW × 1.0142)	5-3	Won by 24 @ Colts
8 (↑4)	Bears	0.9735 (LW × 1.0213)	5-3	Won by 6 @ Eagles
9 (↑1)	Saints	0.9703 (LW × 1.0088)	6-3	Won by 11 vs Buccaneers
10 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9541 (LW × 0.9833)	6-3	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
11 (↑4)	Jets	0.9533 (LW × 1.0455)	5-3	Won by 16 @ Bills
12 (↓9)	Bills	0.9522 (LW × 0.9087)	5-3	Lost by 16 vs Jets
13 (-)	Texans	0.9518 (LW × 1.0035)	6-3	Won by 18 vs Browns
14 (↓3)	Eagles	0.9314 (LW × 0.9729)	3-5	Lost by 6 vs Bears
15 (↓1)	Cowboys	0.9293 (LW × 0.9954)	4-4	Won by 10 vs Seahawks
16 (↑5)	Giants	0.9024 (LW × 1.0341)	6-2	Won by 4 @ Patriots
17 (-)	Chargers	0.8898 (LW × 0.9823)	4-4	Lost by 7 vs Packers
18 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.8894 (LW × 0.9905)	4-4	Lost by 11 @ Saints
19 (↑7)	Broncos	0.8654 (LW × 1.0486)	3-5	Won by 14 @ Raiders
20 (-)	Titans	0.8629 (LW × 0.9798)	4-4	Lost by 7 vs Bengals
21 (↑1)	Vikings	0.8620 (LW × 0.9913)	2-6	Bye
22 (↑2)	Jaguars	0.8371 (LW × 1.0071)	2-6	Bye
23 (-)	Redskins	0.8350 (LW × 0.9780)	3-5	Lost by 8 vs 49ers
24 (↓8)	Raiders	0.8347 (LW × 0.9183)	4-4	Lost by 14 vs Broncos
25 (-)	Panthers	0.8329 (LW × 1.0053)	2-6	Bye
26 (↓8)	Chiefs	0.8181 (LW × 0.9078)	4-4	Lost by 28 vs Dolphins
27 (-)	Seahawks	0.8148 (LW × 1.0002)	2-6	Lost by 10 @ Cowboys
28 (-)	Cardinals	0.8021 (LW × 1.0018)	2-6	Won by 6 vs Rams
29 (↑2)	Dolphins	0.7954 (LW × 1.0727)	1-7	Won by 28 @ Chiefs
30 (↓1)	Browns	0.7818 (LW × 0.9781)	3-5	Lost by 18 @ Texans
31 (↓1)	Rams	0.7624 (LW × 1.0106)	1-7	Lost by 6 @ Cardinals
32 (-)	Colts	0.7122 (LW × 0.9706)	0-9	Lost by 24 vs Falcons

Comments:

APR continues to be very impressed with the Packers. But their defense sure gives up a lot of yards, and you'd think a 21-point lead would be safer than it seemed last Sunday.
Can the Bengals really be a top 5 team? Other than the Bills, they haven't beat much of anyone. But... well, givent the teams below them, how far down should they go? They're at least top 10, for lack of competition.
The Giants move up nicely on their win over the Patriots, but they're still the lowest-ranked team with a winning record, and they still have a lot of tough games left on their schedule.
The Eagles are the highest ranked team with a losing record (ahead of the afore-mentioned Giants). Even if they do have a relatively easy schedule, they're not all cake-walks, and with just 3 wins in 8 games, it becomes questionable how many of those remaining are really winnable.

NFL Q2 Strength of Schedule

2011-11-04T09:56:00.000-07:00

APR's second quarter strength of schedule results, as computed using week 8's power index values. Both the strength of schedule for unplayed (on the left) and played (on the right) games is presented.

As usual, a higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Giants	0.9712	32	0.8469
2	Chargers	0.9541	22	0.8804
3	Dolphins	0.9535	20	0.8975
4	Lions	0.9512	10	0.9238
5	Vikings	0.9480	9	0.9246
6	Broncos	0.9359	7	0.9329
7	Packers	0.9299	24	0.8762
8	Bears	0.9214	2	0.9486
9	Buccaneers	0.9168	6	0.9348
10	Jets	0.9150	19	0.9043
11	Browns	0.9145	28	0.8692
12	Chiefs	0.9144	18	0.9103
13	Colts	0.9126	14	0.9170
14	Saints	0.9123	26	0.8749
15	Panthers	0.9113	16	0.9134
16	Raiders	0.9111	12	0.9206
17	Titans	0.9068	29	0.8681
18	Redskins	0.9067	23	0.8801
19	Steelers	0.9066	25	0.8760
20	Bengals	0.8986	31	0.8662
21	Cardinals	0.8961	21	0.8851
22	Rams	0.8957	1	0.9529
23	Seahawks	0.8911	13	0.9185
24	Ravens	0.8904	30	0.8679
25	Falcons	0.8764	4	0.9377
26	Eagles	0.8761	11	0.9215
27	Bills	0.8723	8	0.9302
28	Cowboys	0.8692	3	0.9397
29	Patriots	0.8667	17	0.9129
30	Texans	0.8622	27	0.8735
31	Jaguars	0.8536	5	0.9354
32	49ers	0.8432	15	0.9153

Comments:

If this is anything close to reality, the Giants are going to have a tough time hanging on to first place in the NFC East. They have a double-whammy of a very tough schedule remaining, along with two division opponents (the Eagles and Cowboys) with very easy remaining schedules.
Yeah, things are looking pretty grim for the Dolphins right now. Their best chance to avoid 0-16 will come a week from Sunday when they face the "Beck or Grossman?" Redskins.
Every team remaining on the Packers' schedule has a winning record except for the Vikings. On the other hand, the Lions and Giants are the only teams better than 4-3, so it's not that bad.
The NFL seems to have back-loaded a lot of divisional games. The 49ers have only played one so far, which means more than half of their remaining games will be against the NFC West teams that are a combined 4-17.
The AFC East could actually come down to the wire in a race between the Bills and Patriots. They don't play their rematch game until week 17.

NFL Week 9 Picks

2011-11-02T09:29:00.002-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Falcons @ Colts	Falcons ρ=1.3135	Falcons* δ=19.9	Falcons -7½
49ers @ Redskins	49ers ρ=1.2476	49ers* δ=16.0	49ers -3
Packers @ Chargers	Packers ρ=1.2253	Packers* δ=15.4	Packers -7
Dolphins @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.2154	Chiefs δ=2.6	Chiefs -5
Giants @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1922	Patriots δ=7.9	Patriots -8½
Browns @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.1866	Texans δ=13.3	Texans -11
Jets @ Bills	Bills ρ=1.1492	Bills δ=6.8	Bills -1
Seahawks @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.1461	Cowboys δ=9.5	Cowboys -12½
Bengals @ Titans	Bengals ρ=1.1260	Bengals* δ=7.6	Titans -2
Broncos @ Raiders	Raiders* ρ=1.1014	Raiders δ=5.7	Raiders -7½
Buccaneers @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.0712	Saints δ=9.5	Saints -8½
Rams @ Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.0613	Cardinals δ=4.3	Cardinals -3½
Ravens @ Steelers	Ravens* ρ=1.0341	Ravens* δ=6.2	Steelers -3
Bears @ Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.0044	Bears* δ=1.7	Eagles -8

Bye: Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Vikings

Comments:

The Packers are 8-1 all time vs. the Chargers. The Chargers are going to have to play a lot better than they did last week to have a chance to make that 8-2.
What happened to that awful Chiefs team that lost a combined 89-10 the first two games of the season? They haven't been beating the class of the NFL, but early on, they didn't look like they could beat anybody.
Everybody likes the Bills to beat the Jets (barely, in the case of the Line). Of course, if the Jets run defense is still broken, Fred Jackson could have a field day, which would let Ryan Fitzpatrick stick to the easy checkdowns, and stay away from Revis Island.
Steven Jackson had been struggling this season, with only one game over 70 yards through week 7. One of the reasons the Rams were able to beat the Saints in week 8 was Jackson's 159 rushing yards. If he even comes close to a repeat performance, the Cardinals are going to have a very tough time getting their second win of the season.
One reason the Giants are 5-2? Eli Manning has (pretty quietly I think) been having a very good year. A 64.6% completion rate, averaging nearly 300 yards/game, with 13 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. That's a noticable improvement over last year, especially on interceptions.

NFL Week 8 APR vs. ESPN

2011-11-01T11:50:00.000-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 8 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+12): The Giants barely beat perhaps the worst team in the league (at home, too), and ESPN moves them up 2 spots? Factor in the awful game they had against the Seahawks a few weeks ago, and they really don't seem like a top-10 team to me. With a very tough stretch of their schedule coming up, we should have a pretty good idea of how good (or bad) this team is by early December.
On the bubble:: Nobody closer than +5 (Steelers, Browns)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:: Cowboys (-7), Bengals (-7)

NFL Week 8 Pick Results

2011-11-01T09:00:00.001-07:00

Winning team in bold.

For the picks that went wrong this week, there's definitely an "everything you know is wrong" theme.

Unanimous Picks (8-3)

Right:

Lions @ Broncos
Bengals @ Seahawks
Browns @ 49ers
Cardinals @ Ravens
Redskins @ Bills
Colts @ Titans
Dolphins @ Giants
Jaguars @ Texans

Wrong:

Saints @ Rams

For the second time in 3 games, Drew Brees has had a bad game (2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions). The Saints defense hasn't been doing well either—they've allowed 26+ points in five games, including all three losses.

Patriots @ Steelers

The Patriots apparently left their juggernaught offense at home for this game. They only had three drives longer than 18 yards, and only one of those ended with a touchdown. This is made all the more surprising by the fact that the Patriots didn't have any interceptions, and only that one fumble at the end of the game. In spite of the gaudy passing stats that Brady has been putting up, this seems like one of the weakest Patriot squads we've seen since Brady took over from Drew Bledsoe.

Chargers @ Chiefs

The Chargers botched this game in just about every way possible: 3 sacks, 105 penalty yards, 2 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles. Somehow they were still in it, with a chance to take a 3-point lead late in the 4th quarter, until that second lost fumble. Given the state of the AFC West, I wouldn't bet 2¢ on any of those teams to win it right now.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-1, SRS 0-2, Line 1-1)

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

This was easily the worst game the Cowboys have played since Wade Philips was on the sidelines. The defense couldn't stop anything (the Eagles scored on their first 6 drives, none shorter than 58 yards), and the offense just couldn't get started, not producing a drive longer than 28 yards until deep into garbage time. I'm not sure how much to credit (or blame) either team for the outcome of this game, but I'll be a lot less interested in arguing that the Cowboys are underrated right now.

Vikings (APR) @ Panthers (SRS, Line)

A close game, as advertised. One thing that stands out as a difference maker: the Vikings defense produced two turnovers that the offense converted into touchdowns, while the Panthers defense only produced one turnover, and their offense fumbled the ball away on the ensuing drive.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	9-4	61-38-1	61.5%
SRS	8-5	62-37-1	62.5%
Line	9-4	69-31-0	69.0%

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

2011-10-31T23:22:00.001-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.1100 (LW × 0.9977)	7-0	Bye
2 (↑1)	49ers	1.0651 (LW × 0.9865)	6-1	Won by 10 vs Browns
3 (↑2)	Bills	1.0479 (LW × 1.0206)	5-2	Won by 23 vs Redskins
4 (↓2)	Patriots	1.0404 (LW × 0.9533)	5-2	Lost by 8 @ Steelers
5 (↑1)	Lions	1.0387 (LW × 1.0141)	6-2	Won by 35 @ Broncos
6 (↑1)	Ravens	1.0033 (LW × 0.9895)	5-2	Won by 3 vs Cardinals
7 (↑2)	Bengals	0.9917 (LW × 1.0274)	5-2	Won by 22 @ Seahawks
8 (↑5)	Steelers	0.9702 (LW × 1.0431)	6-2	Won by 8 vs Patriots
9 (↑1)	Falcons	0.9638 (LW × 1.0015)	4-3	Bye
10 (↓6)	Saints	0.9618 (LW × 0.9316)	5-3	Lost by 10 @ Rams
11 (↑7)	Eagles	0.9574 (LW × 1.0595)	3-4	Won by 27 vs Cowboys
12 (↓1)	Bears	0.9532 (LW × 0.9914)	4-3	Bye
13 (↓1)	Texans	0.9485 (LW × 1.0025)	5-3	Won by 10 vs Jaguars
14 (↓6)	Cowboys	0.9337 (LW × 0.9559)	3-4	Lost by 27 @ Eagles
15 (↓1)	Jets	0.9119 (LW × 0.9834)	4-3	Bye
16 (-)	Raiders	0.9090 (LW × 0.9975)	4-3	Bye
17 (↓2)	Chargers	0.9058 (LW × 0.9856)	4-3	Lost by 3 @ Chiefs
18 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.9012 (LW × 1.0221)	4-3	Won by 3 vs Chargers
19 (↓2)	Buccaneers	0.8979 (LW × 0.9907)	4-3	Bye
20 (-)	Titans	0.8807 (LW × 1.0172)	4-3	Won by 17 vs Colts
21 (-)	Giants	0.8726 (LW × 1.0148)	5-2	Won by 3 vs Dolphins
22 (↑2)	Vikings	0.8696 (LW × 1.0261)	2-6	Won by 3 @ Panthers
23 (↓1)	Redskins	0.8537 (LW × 1.0014)	3-4	Lost by 23 @ Bills
24 (↑2)	Jaguars	0.8312 (LW × 0.9921)	2-6	Lost by 10 @ Texans
25 (-)	Panthers	0.8284 (LW × 0.9783)	2-6	Lost by 3 vs Vikings
26 (↓3)	Broncos	0.8253 (LW × 0.9714)	2-5	Lost by 35 vs Lions
27 (-)	Seahawks	0.8147 (LW × 0.9828)	2-5	Lost by 22 vs Bengals
28 (↑1)	Cardinals	0.8006 (LW × 1.0382)	1-6	Lost by 3 @ Ravens
29 (↓1)	Browns	0.7993 (LW × 1.0265)	3-4	Lost by 10 @ 49ers
30 (↑2)	Rams	0.7544 (LW × 1.0777)	1-6	Won by 10 vs Saints
31 (-)	Dolphins	0.7415 (LW × 1.0090)	0-7	Lost by 3 @ Giants
32 (↓2)	Colts	0.7338 (LW × 0.9920)	0-8	Lost by 17 @ Titans

Comments:

For the season being nearly halfway through, the standings are amazingly tight—17 Teams have 2 or 3 losses right now.
Are the 49ers really a top 5 team? Hard to argue against it. Alex Smith and Frank Gore are both having the best seasons of their respective careers, and their defense—especially the run defense—has been doing very good as well.
The biggest problem for the 49ers could be complacency. The way the rest of the NFC West is playing, they could have their division locked up before the end of November, and (if the NFC East and South teams keep stumbling) an inside track on a bye week for the playoffs as well.
Remember back in week 6, I said the Patriots had too many flaws to be the best team in the league? Yeah. They're not going to last long in the top 5 if they keep playing like they did on Sunday.
The Eagles make a big jump, and are now just outside the top 10. I'm not sure how much stock I'm willing to put in their 2-game winning streak, but it seems likely if they can hold on to the ball, they will keep winning.
The Ravens had some real problems protecting Joe Flacco in the first half of their game. He was sacked 3 times, lost a fumble and threw an interception. That (along with a special teams breakdown) was how the Cardinals jumped out to a 24-3 lead. Once Flacco started having some time to throw, he started hitting Anquan Boldin pretty regularly, and setting up some short touchdown runs for Ray Rice.

NFL Week 8 Picks

2011-10-26T08:10:00.000-07:00

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Saints @ Rams	Saints ρ=1.4748	Saints* δ=27.7	Saints -15½
Browns @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.3864	49ers δ=23.4	49ers -9
Cardinals @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.3149	Ravens δ=18.4	Ravens -13
Lions @ Broncos	Lions ρ=1.2055	Lions* δ=16.5	Lions -3½
Redskins @ Bills	Bills ρ=1.2044	Bills δ=9.7	Bills -6
Patriots @ Steelers	Patriots ρ=1.1733	Patriots* δ=8.3	Patriots -2½
Colts @ Titans	Titans ρ=1.1705	Titans δ=11.8	Titans -9
Dolphins @ Giants	Giants ρ=1.1700	Giants δ=5.6	Giants -10
Bengals @ Seahawks	Bengals ρ=1.1645	Bengals* δ=7.6	Bengals -2½
Jaguars @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.1293	Texans δ=10.4	Texans -9½
Cowboys @ Eagles	Cowboys ρ=1.0809	Cowboys* δ=6.6	Eagles -3½
Chargers @ Chiefs	Chargers ρ=1.0424	Chargers* δ=7.1	Chargers -3
Vikings @ Panthers	Vikings* ρ=1.0008	Panthers δ=2.9	Panthers -3

Bye: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Jets, Raiders, Buccaneers

Comments:

Only two split picks this week, including the Rookie vs. Rookie matchup of Vikings @ Panthers. I've got to agree with the Line on this one—Cam Newton, with more experience as a starter, playing at home, should have the advantage.
On the other hand, if the Cowboys are underrated right now, this is a game they need to win. The Eagles have given up more turnovers than any other team in the league (17), and the Cowboys aren't that far behind (13), so like most games for these two teams, the outcome will be determined by who takes better care of the ball.
Four years ago, the Lions got off to a 6-2 start, before spiraling into an epic 5-33 losing streak that stretched over four seasons. Their last win on that 6-2 start was a dominating game over the Denver Broncos. Now, they need to beat the Broncos again to avoid a 3-game losing streak that, while much shorter, could seem just as disasterous to a team that is still trying to establish its confidence.
Bengals are another team facing a tough road game, and one that should give us some idea of how good they are. Even as bad as the Seahawks have been on the road, they've been a tough team to beat at home.

NFL Week 7 APR vs. ESPN

2011-10-25T18:51:00.001-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 7 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+10): APR and ESPN both hold the Giants steady. They had their bye this week, so there's nothing new to add to what I said last week.
On the bubble:: Steelers (+8)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Cowboys (-10): The Cowboys manage to beat one of the weakest teams in the league, which makes them look one spot worse to APR and three spots better to ESPN. Given the strong APR/ESPN disagreement on the Giants and Cowboys, it will be very interesting to see how their regular season series plays out.
On the bubble:: Bengals (-7)

NFL Week 7 Pick Results

2011-10-25T09:47:00.001-07:00

Winning team in bold.

If this week has a theme, it might be "no matter how bad your starting QB is, your backup could be far worse".

Unanimous Picks (5-3)

Right:

Rams @ Cowboys
Colts @ Saints
Packers @ Vikings
Steelers @ Cardinals
Bears "@" Buccaneers (London)

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Raiders

This was not a good game for the Chiefs offense: 7 punts and 2 interceptions. But it was far, far worse for the Raiders. Six interceptions, including two pick-6es, and only two drives that went longer than 44 yards. Unless Carson Palmer can get up to playing speed fast, the Raiders playoff hopes ended with Jason Campbell's season.

Falcons @ Lions

The Lions had a bad day on offense, posting the fewest points (16) and fewest yards from scrimmage (263) of the season. What's worse, they did it at home, against one of the weaker defenses of the league (the Falcons' D is #19 in points allowed, #20 in yards allowed).

Ravens @ Jaguars

Joe Flacco has had 3 pretty bad games already this season. Against the Titans, Jets, and Jaguars, he's averaged 166 passing yards, a 46% completion rate, with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. And when the defense doesn't score, the result is games like this, where the Ravens lose because the offense can't score two touchdowns.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-3, SRS 3-2, Line 2-3)

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins (Line)

The Dolphins are a really bad team, maybe worse than the 2007 squad that went 1-15. And after an 0-6 start that has culminated with a 15-point lead blown in the final 5:34 of regulation, it seems almost certain that Tony Sparano has lost his team.

Texans (SRS) @ Titans (APR, Line)
The Titans had a terrible game: Matt Hasselbeck barely broke 100 yards passing, Chris Johnson failed to get even 55 yards rushing for the 4th time this season, and the defense gave up one long scoring drive after another. If the Titans are going to challenge the Texans for the AFC South, they're going to have to play a lot better than that.

Chargers (Line) @ Jets (APR, SRS)

Antonio Gates is a big piece of the Chargers offense, and getting him back on the field is the answer to my (implicit) question as to why the line favored the Chargers in this game. But even with Gates on the field, it wasn't enough for the Chargers, who faced a solid defense for the first time this season.

Redskins (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

The Redskins struggled on both sides of the ball. The offense had 6 drives end with a punt, lost fumble, interception, or failed 4th down try. The defense gave up five drives of 53+ yards, all ending with a score. With no good choice for quarterback, and Tim Hightower done for the season, the Redskins are another team whose playoff hopes are probably over.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)

An exercise in offensive futility by the Seahawks. Their second-longest drive went 14(!) yards. The Browns had more than twice as many yards on offense, but an interception and a couple blocked field goal attempts made this game much closer than it should have been.

Totals

Not really a good week for anybody this time around.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	7-6	52-34-1	60.3%
SRS	8-5	54-32-1	62.6%
Line	7-6	60-27-0	69.0%

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

2011-10-24T21:10:00.002-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Packers	1.1125 (LW × 1.0078)	7-0	Won by 6 @ Vikings
2 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0913 (LW × 0.9772)	5-1	Bye
3 (-)	49ers	1.0796 (LW × 0.9848)	5-1	Bye
4 (↑4)	Saints	1.0324 (LW × 1.0271)	5-2	Won by 55 vs Colts
5 (↑1)	Bills	1.0267 (LW × 0.9939)	4-2	Bye
6 (↓1)	Lions	1.0243 (LW × 0.9599)	5-2	Lost by 7 vs Falcons
7 (↓3)	Ravens	1.0140 (LW × 0.9432)	4-2	Lost by 5 @ Jaguars
8 (↓1)	Cowboys	0.9767 (LW × 0.9579)	3-3	Won by 27 vs Rams
9 (↑1)	Bengals	0.9652 (LW × 1.0060)	4-2	Bye
10 (↑10)	Falcons	0.9624 (LW × 1.0786)	4-3	Won by 7 @ Lions
11 (↑2)	Bears	0.9615 (LW × 1.0449)	4-3	Won by 6 @ Buccaneers
12 (↑3)	Texans	0.9462 (LW × 1.0359)	4-3	Won by 34 @ Titans
13 (↑1)	Steelers	0.9301 (LW × 1.0113)	5-2	Won by 12 @ Cardinals
14 (↓3)	Jets	0.9273 (LW × 0.9824)	4-3	Won by 6 vs Chargers
15 (↑1)	Chargers	0.9191 (LW × 1.0097)	4-2	Lost by 6 @ Jets
16 (↓7)	Raiders	0.9113 (LW × 0.9197)	4-3	Lost by 28 vs Chiefs
17 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.9064 (LW × 1.0026)	4-3	Lost by 6 vs Bears
18 (↓1)	Eagles	0.9036 (LW × 0.9935)	2-4	Bye
19 (↑6)	Chiefs	0.8817 (LW × 1.0936)	3-3	Won by 28 @ Raiders
20 (↓8)	Titans	0.8658 (LW × 0.9300)	3-3	Lost by 34 vs Texans
21 (-)	Giants	0.8599 (LW × 0.9815)	4-2	Bye
22 (↓3)	Redskins	0.8525 (LW × 0.9454)	3-3	Lost by 13 @ Panthers
23 (↓1)	Broncos	0.8497 (LW × 0.9787)	2-4	Won by 3 @ Dolphins
24 (-)	Vikings	0.8475 (LW × 1.0362)	1-6	Lost by 6 vs Packers
25 (↑2)	Panthers	0.8468 (LW × 1.0669)	2-5	Won by 13 vs Redskins
26 (-)	Jaguars	0.8378 (LW × 1.0502)	2-5	Won by 5 vs Ravens
27 (↓4)	Seahawks	0.8289 (LW × 0.9876)	2-4	Lost by 3 @ Browns
28 (↑1)	Browns	0.7787 (LW × 1.0020)	3-3	Won by 3 vs Seahawks
29 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.7712 (LW × 0.9829)	1-5	Lost by 12 vs Steelers
30 (↑1)	Colts	0.7397 (LW × 1.0265)	0-7	Lost by 55 @ Saints
31 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.7349 (LW × 0.9994)	0-6	Lost by 3 vs Broncos
32 (-)	Rams	0.7000 (LW × 0.9824)	0-6	Lost by 27 @ Cowboys

Comments:

Once again the Packers win, in spite of an (at times, anyway) unimpressive performance by the defense. They're all but guaranteed a playoff spot at this point, but they're going to have to do a lot better to advance in January, I think.
Every team the Packers have played (excepting the Vikings, of course) won this weekend, giving them enough to get back up to the #1 spot.
I was thinking that the Ravens could be the best team in the NFL... but so far, their road games have been a win over the hapless Rams, and two face-plants against a couple unimpressive AFC South teams. They don't have a very tough road schedule, but when they can't even beat the Jaguars, it doesn't look good.
Is that the end of Matt Hasselbeck's late-career resurgence? The fact that he hasn't been able to put together a season's worth of quality play is why he's not starting for the Seahawks anymore. Of course, the fact that Charles Johnson is having a very poor season isn't helping anything.
After an 0-3 start that made them look like perhaps the worst team in the league, the Chiefs have won 3 in a row. And with a 3-game homestand coming up against the Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos, they could actually claw their way up to 6-3 before hitting the next tough stretch of their schedule.
That really was an awful performance by the Colts Sunday night. It's the biggest loss since 2009, and one of only a handful of losses by 50+ points since 1970. Not all of that can be blamed on missing Peyton Manning.

NFL Week 7 Picks

2011-10-19T10:49:00.002-07:00

Update: now with a full complement of k's

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Rams @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.4309	Cowboys δ=19.2	Cowboys -13
Colts @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.3949	Saints δ=18.1	Saints -14
Packers @ Vikings	Packers ρ=1.3498	Packers* δ=18.5	Packers -9
Ravens @ Jaguars	Ravens ρ=1.3475	Ravens* δ=23.4	Ravens -8
Chiefs @ Raiders	Raiders ρ=1.2289	Raiders δ=19.8	Raiders -3½
Falcons @ Lions	Lions ρ=1.1958	Lions δ=11.8	Lions -3½
Broncos @ Dolphins	Broncos ρ=1.1805	Broncos* δ=5.3	Dolphins -2
Steelers @ Cardinals	Steelers* ρ=1.1723	Steelers* δ=10.7	Steelers -3½
Redskins @ Panthers	Redskins ρ=1.1360	Redskins* δ=3.8	Panthers -1
Seahawks @ Browns	Seahawks ρ=1.0801	Seahawks* δ=3.0	Browns -2½
Chargers @ Jets	Jets ρ=1.0369	Jets δ=8.3	Chargers -1
Texans @ Titans	Titans ρ=1.0192	Texans* δ=1.8	Titans -3
Bears @ Buccaneers	Bears* ρ=1.0178	Bears* δ=8.8	Bears -1

Bye: Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, 49ers

Comments:

Another week with a lot of narrow lines. Only four games wider than 3½ points.
Another likely snoozer for the Sunday night game. I wonder how hard NBC will push for the ability to flex games earlier in the season when their contract comes up for renewal?
The Jets have had 3 pretty ugly losses so far, but they've played a tough schedule. The Chargers are 4-1, but with unimpressive wins over weak teams. I'm surprised the Line isn't going with the Jets here, especially at home, and against a team that has to fly coast-to-coast to get to the game.
John Beck will reportedly be starting for the Redskins this week, so the Panthers defense may actually be able to carry them to their second win.
Tim Tebow and the Brandon Lloyd-less Broncos will pay a visit to the winless Miami Dolphins this week. Hard to imagine that anything except a train-wreck of a game. This is probably also the Dolphins best chance to get a win this season.

NFL Week 6 APR vs. ESPN

2011-10-18T12:03:00.003-07:00

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 6 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+10): A little closer than last week. Maybe APR has them underrated at #21, but given the way the Giants struggled against the Cardinals and Seahawks, I'm not sure how much higher they should really go right now.
Chargers (+9): The good news for the Chargers is that they've actually managed a decent start at 4-1. The bad news is, the 4 teams they beat are a combined 4-17, and none of those wins were a blow-out you'd expect when a good team plays a very bad one. I've learned my lesson (at least for the moment) about making absolute pronouncements, but I will say that the Chargers are not showing the signs of a top-10 team.
On the bubble:: Nobody closer than +6 (Steelers, Bucs, Browns)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Cowboys (-14): APR likes close losses more than it should, and the Cowboys have a bunch: their 3 losses are by a combined 11 points, all to highly-ranked teams. I'm willing to stipulate that they're not a top-10 team right now, but ESPN's ranking of #21 is too low as well.
On the bubble:: Bengals (-8)

NFL Week 6 Pick Results

2011-10-18T09:17:00.001-07:00

Winning team in bold.

We have something of a theme this week in the pick results. That theme is "Throwing interceptions is bad. Throwing multiple interceptions is really, really bad."

Unanimous Picks (8-1)

Right:

Rams @ Packers
Colts @ Bengals
Browns @ Raiders
Cowboys @ Patriots
Jaguars @ Steelers
Texans @ Ravens
Vikings @ Bears
Dolphins @ Jets

Wrong:

Saints @ Buccaneers
Last week, I called the Buccaneers a bad team, and to be honest, this game doesn't really change my mind. it is possible to have a +4 turnover differential and still lose, but it sure hasn't happened very often. It's also worth noting that this is the first game this season the Bucs have had better than a +1 turnover differential.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

APR: 9-4 SRS: 9-4, Line 11-2

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Of the three teams I called 'bad' last week, the Giants are least deserving. When they play well (e.g. when Eli's receivers don't tip the ball into the hands of opposing DBs), the Giants can be very good. The problem is, when they don't play well (as evidenced a week ago), they can be really, really bad.

As a side note, I should mention that I should've been more skeptical of a Bills team that twice needed 3-score comebacks to win, and faltered against the Bengals.

Eagles (Line) @ Redskins (APR, SRS)

There is a reason that Rex Grossman is no longer the starting quarterback for the Bears. It is what is technically known as "Bad Rex", and featured prominently in this game. I'm not sure this proves much of anything about the Eagles, except that they, too, can win a game if you give them four extra chances at possessing the ball.

49ers (SRS) @ Lions (APR, Line)

Both teams in this game seemed somewhat similar: fairly good defenses, and somewhat limited offenses. The difference was that the 49ers were able to make good use of their best offensive players (Ted Ginn on kick and punt returns, and Frank Gore running the ball), while limiting the Lions best players (Calvin Johnson had 113 yards receiving, but no touchdowns, and Jahvid Best had only 37 yards rushing).

Panthers (SRS) @ Falcons (APR, Line)

Four times this season, the Panthers have given up 28+ points, and each of those four times, they've lost. The problems have been widespread: special teams breakdowns, turnovers, and plain old defensive failure. This game is also the third time this season the Panthers have had a 4th-quarter lead and been unable to hold it. The Panthers may not be that far from having a winning team, but they need to learn how to keep it together for 60 minutes.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	9-4	45-28-1	61.5%
SRS	9-4	46-27-1	62.8%
Line	11-2	53-21-0	71.6%

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

2011-10-17T21:10:00.001-07:00

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Patriots	1.1168 (LW × 0.9628)	5-1	Won by 4 vs Cowboys
2 (↓1)	Packers	1.1040 (LW × 0.9510)	6-0	Won by 21 vs Rams
3 (↑4)	49ers	1.0962 (LW × 1.0650)	5-1	Won by 6 @ Lions
4 (↑4)	Ravens	1.0751 (LW × 1.0477)	4-1	Won by 15 vs Texans
5 (↓2)	Lions	1.0670 (LW × 0.9725)	5-1	Lost by 6 vs 49ers
6 (↓2)	Bills	1.0330 (LW × 0.9515)	4-2	Lost by 3 @ Giants
7 (↑2)	Cowboys	1.0196 (LW × 1.0154)	2-3	Lost by 4 @ Patriots
8 (↓3)	Saints	1.0052 (LW × 0.9417)	4-2	Lost by 6 @ Buccaneers
9 (↓3)	Raiders	0.9908 (LW × 0.9530)	4-2	Won by 7 vs Browns
10 (-)	Bengals	0.9595 (LW × 0.9765)	4-2	Won by 10 vs Colts
11 (↑1)	Jets	0.9439 (LW × 0.9949)	3-3	Won by 18 vs Dolphins
12 (↑2)	Titans	0.9310 (LW × 1.0058)	3-2	Bye
13 (↑4)	Bears	0.9202 (LW × 1.0040)	3-3	Won by 29 vs Vikings
14 (↑2)	Steelers	0.9197 (LW × 0.9994)	4-2	Won by 4 vs Jaguars
15 (↓4)	Texans	0.9134 (LW × 0.9535)	3-3	Lost by 15 @ Ravens
16 (↓3)	Chargers	0.9103 (LW × 0.9671)	4-1	Bye
17 (↑7)	Eagles	0.9096 (LW × 1.1056)	2-4	Won by 7 @ Redskins
18 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.9040 (LW × 1.0529)	4-2	Won by 6 vs Saints
19 (↓4)	Redskins	0.9017 (LW × 0.9792)	3-2	Lost by 7 vs Eagles
20 (↑1)	Falcons	0.8923 (LW × 1.0604)	3-3	Won by 14 vs Panthers
21 (↑6)	Giants	0.8761 (LW × 1.0928)	4-2	Won by 3 vs Bills
22 (↓4)	Broncos	0.8681 (LW × 0.9708)	1-4	Bye
23 (↑2)	Seahawks	0.8394 (LW × 1.0421)	2-3	Bye
24 (↓4)	Vikings	0.8179 (LW × 0.9573)	1-5	Lost by 29 @ Bears
25 (↓2)	Chiefs	0.8063 (LW × 0.9756)	2-3	Bye
26 (-)	Jaguars	0.7978 (LW × 0.9926)	1-5	Lost by 4 @ Steelers
27 (↓5)	Panthers	0.7937 (LW × 0.9469)	1-5	Lost by 14 @ Falcons
28 (-)	Cardinals	0.7846 (LW × 1.0013)	1-4	Bye
29 (-)	Browns	0.7771 (LW × 1.0164)	2-3	Lost by 7 @ Raiders
30 (-)	Dolphins	0.7354 (LW × 0.9671)	0-5	Lost by 18 @ Jets
31 (-)	Colts	0.7206 (LW × 1.0266)	0-6	Lost by 10 @ Bengals
32 (-)	Rams	0.7126 (LW × 1.0937)	0-5	Lost by 21 @ Packers

Comments:

Well. So much for absolute pronouncements about how bad the Giants, Eagles, and Buccaneers are. Of course, even a bad team can get a win when their opposing QB throws 4 interceptions (yeah, I'm looking at you, Rex Grossman).
The Packers dispatched the Rams without too much fuss. But it is troubling that they are the only team (so far) not to rush for at least 100 yards on the Rams very weak rush defense. The Rams gave up 168+ yards rushing to the Eagles, Ravens, and Redskins.
The Packers' weak schedule finally cost them the top spot. The Bears' dominating win Sunday night saved them from falling even farther.
The Patriots defense is too weak, and Brady has been too prone to throwing interceptions for the Patriots to be the best team in the league right now. But they have beat a pretty solid roster of opponents so far, which gets them APR's top spot, at least for a week.
After nearly a decade of also-ran status, the 49ers have jumped out to one of the beat records in the NFL. And with a pretty easy remaining schedule, they could easily get to 10 or more wins, as long as they continue to play at the same level.