Tuesday, April 22, 2008

AFL Week 9: Game Picks

Here's the picks for week 9. All three methods pick Philadelphia to win the Philly @ Dallas matchup, but APR has Philly's margin razor-thin (ρ=1.0 would indicate the teams have the same power). APR and SRS are again agreed on all games.

GameAPRSRSITP
Kansas City Brigade @
Grand Rapids Rampage
Rampage
ρ=1.1124
Rampage
δ= 9.0
Rampage
Utah Blaze @
New Orleans VooDoo
VooDoo
ρ=1.4632
VooDoo
δ=20.1
VooDoo
Chicago Rush @
Colorado Crush
Rush
ρ=1.1592
Rush
δ=17.4
Rush
Georgia Force @
Arizona Rattlers
Force
ρ=1.0968
Force
δ= 9.1
Rattlers
Cleveland Gladiators @
New York Dragons
Dragons
ρ=1.0191
Dragons
δ= 3.2
Gladiators
Tampa Bay Storm @
Orlando Predators
Predators
ρ=1.2440
Predators
δ= 9.0
Predators
Los Angeles Avengers @
San Jose SaberCats
SaberCats
ρ=1.1778
SaberCats
δ= 9.6
SaberCats
Dallas Desperados @
Philadelphia Soul
Soul
ρ=1.0077
Soul
δ= 7.6
Soul

Bye: Columbus Destroyers

Update: contrary to the original post title, these are the picks for week 9. Also note that Dallas @ Philadelphia is another example of two undefeated teams with different records playing. However, the team with the better record (Philly has one more win than Dallas) plays at home, so my version of ITP picks the same in this case.