Picks for week Arena Bowl.
One more AFL game left. No surprise Philadelphia is the unanimous pick.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| San Jose SaberCats @ Philadelphia Soul | Soul ρ=1.0447 | Soul δ= 6.6 | Soul |
Showing posts with label Arena Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arena Football. Show all posts
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Friday, July 18, 2008
AFL Playoffs round 3: Pick standings and power rankings
Pick Standings
Home teams won; everybody is happy.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 15 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 16 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 17 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs1 | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs2 | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs3 | ( | 2 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 87 | 50 | 1 | ) | ( | 86 | 51 | 1 | ) | ( | 85 | 53 | 0 | ) | ( | 81 | 57 | 0 | ) |
| 63.4% | 62.7% | 61.6% | 58.7% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
No surprises here, except thanks to trickle-down power, KC and Columbus are still locked in a battle for last place.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 15-3-0 | 1.5290 (LW * 1.0114) | beat Gladiators by 35 |
| 2 (LW) | San Jose SaberCats | 13-5-0 | 1.4636 (LW * 1.0175) | beat Rampage by 26 |
| 3 (LW) | Georgia Force | 10-7-0 | 1.3959 (LW * 0.9960) | Bye |
| 4 (LW) | New York Dragons | 9-9-0 | 1.3942 (LW * 0.9954) | Bye |
| 5 (LW-1) | Tampa Bay Storm | 8-8-0 | 1.3656 (LW * 0.9940) | Bye |
| 6 (LW-2) | Dallas Desperados | 12-5-0 | 1.3559 (LW * 0.9926) | Bye |
| 7 (LW+2) | Cleveland Gladiators | 11-8-0 | 1.3410 (LW * 0.9739) | lost to Soul by 35 |
| 8 (LW+1) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 8-11-0 | 1.3267 (LW * 0.9695) | lost to SaberCats by 26 |
| 9 (LW) | Chicago Rush | 11-6-0 | 1.3265 (LW * 0.9909) | Bye |
| 10 (LW) | Utah Blaze | 6-11-0 | 1.2837 (LW * 0.9945) | Bye |
| 11 (LW) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-8-0 | 1.2760 (LW * 0.9931) | Bye |
| 12 (LW) | Orlando Predators | 9-8-0 | 1.2693 (LW * 0.9922) | Bye |
| 13 (LW) | Colorado Crush | 7-11-0 | 1.2424 (LW * 0.9943) | Bye |
| 14 (LW) | Arizona Rattlers | 8-9-0 | 1.2007 (LW * 0.9923) | Bye |
| 15 (LW) | Los Angeles Avengers | 5-11-0 | 1.1326 (LW * 0.9972) | Bye |
| 16 (LW-1) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-13-0 | 1.1181 (LW * 0.9957) | Bye |
| 17 (LW+1) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-13-0 | 1.1168 (LW * 0.9915) | Bye |
Saturday, July 12, 2008
AFL Playoffs, round 3: Game Picks
Picks for round 3 of the playoffs.
Unsurprisingly, both home teams are the unanimous picks. But given the way the season has played out so far, I wouldn't risk so much as a penny we've seen the last upset.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| Cleveland Gladiators @ Philadelphia Soul | Soul ρ=1.0979 | Soul δ= 9.1 | Soul |
| Grand Rapids Rampage @ San Jose SaberCats | SaberCats ρ=1.0512 | SaberCats δ= 4.5 | SaberCats |
Monday, July 7, 2008
AFL Pick Results and Playoff Power Rankings, Round 2
Pick Standings
Two more upsets (very nearly three; Philadelphia won on a last-play TD), and the 6-10 Grand Rapids Rampage have somehow played their way to the penultimate game of the playoffs. Even with their winning streak, their still ranked well back of all the other remaining teams.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 15 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 16 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 17 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs1 | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Playoffs2 | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 85 | 50 | 1 | ) | ( | 84 | 51 | 1 | ) | ( | 83 | 53 | 0 | ) | ( | 79 | 57 | 0 | ) |
| 62.9% | 62.1% | 61.0% | 58.1% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Where should Grand Rapids "really" be? Who knows. Given the wacky results of this league, APR's 62.9% pick success seems pretty remarkable. And in spite of their dominating power index, Philadelphia could be in trouble: they had a late-season losing streak with HFA still on the line, and just barely beat an upset-minded New York team.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 14-3-0 | 1.5117 (LW * 0.9953) | beat Dragons by 1 |
| 2 (LW-1) | San Jose SaberCats | 12-5-0 | 1.4384 (LW * 0.9984) | beat Crush by 13 |
| 3 (LW+1) | Georgia Force | 10-7-0 | 1.4015 (LW * 0.9714) | lost to Gladiators by 3 |
| 4 (LW-1) | New York Dragons | 9-9-0 | 1.4006 (LW * 1.0036) | lost to Soul by 1 |
| 5 (LW-3) | Cleveland Gladiators | 11-7-0 | 1.3769 (LW * 1.0179) | beat Force by 3 |
| 6 (LW) | Tampa Bay Storm | 8-8-0 | 1.3738 (LW * 0.9995) | Bye |
| 7 (LW-2) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 8-10-0 | 1.3684 (LW * 1.0503) | beat Rush by 17 |
| 8 (LW+1) | Dallas Desperados | 12-5-0 | 1.3660 (LW * 1.0013) | Bye |
| 9 (LW+5) | Chicago Rush | 11-6-0 | 1.3386 (LW * 0.9584) | lost to Rampage by 17 |
| 10 (LW) | Utah Blaze | 6-11-0 | 1.2909 (LW * 1.0011) | Bye |
| 11 (LW) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-8-0 | 1.2849 (LW * 1.0018) | Bye |
| 12 (LW) | Orlando Predators | 9-8-0 | 1.2793 (LW * 1.0006) | Bye |
| 13 (LW) | Colorado Crush | 7-11-0 | 1.2496 (LW * 1.0005) | lost to SaberCats by 13 |
| 14 (LW) | Arizona Rattlers | 8-9-0 | 1.2100 (LW * 1.0049) | Bye |
| 15 (LW) | Los Angeles Avengers | 5-11-0 | 1.1358 (LW * 0.9979) | Bye |
| 16 (LW-1) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-13-0 | 1.1263 (LW * 1.0048) | Bye |
| 17 (LW+1) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-13-0 | 1.1229 (LW * 0.9955) | Bye |
Saturday, July 5, 2008
AFL Playoffs, round 2: Game Picks
Picks for the second round of the playoffs
Is it too late to do this? Does anyone care? Everybody likes the home teams this week.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| Colorado Crush @ San Jose SaberCats | SaberCats ρ=1.1535 | SaberCats δ= 9.1 | SaberCats |
| New York Dragons @ Philadelphia Soul | Soul ρ=1.0884 | Soul δ=10.0 | Soul |
| Grand Rapids Rampage @ Chicago Rush | Rush ρ=1.0721 | Rush δ=10.3 | Rush |
| Cleveland Gladiators @ Georgia Force | Force ρ=1.0666 | Force δ= 4.1 | Force |
Friday, July 4, 2008
AFL Pick Results and Playoff Power Rankings, Round 1
Pick Standings
A high-ranked Dallas team is one-and-done in the playoffs thanks to a surging team from New York. Somehow, that sounds oddly familiar...
In spite of my warnings to the contrary, APR (and SRS) were right to pick Grand Rapids to beat Arizona. And Arizona (and to a lesser extent, Dallas) show the correlation between losing a "meaningless" end-of-season game, and early exits from the playoffs.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 15 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 16 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 17 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week Divisional | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 1 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 83 | 48 | 1 | ) | ( | 82 | 49 | 1 | ) | ( | 81 | 51 | 0 | ) | ( | 77 | 55 | 0 | ) |
| 63.3% | 62.5% | 61.4% | 58.3% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Georgia and San Jose are virtually tied in their power index, so relatively minor changes to their power index values swaps their rankings. In hindsight, it looks like APR was right to rank Dallas as low as it did.
Note that New York's power index is just a shade under Chicago's... another upset isn't out of the question.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 13-3-0 | 1.5189 (LW * 1.0036) | Bye |
| 2 (LW-1) | Georgia Force | 10-6-0 | 1.4428 (LW * 1.0022) | Bye |
| 3 (LW+1) | San Jose SaberCats | 11-5-0 | 1.4407 (LW * 0.9967) | Bye |
| 4 (LW-1) | Chicago Rush | 11-5-0 | 1.3967 (LW * 0.9988) | Bye |
| 5 (LW-3) | New York Dragons | 9-8-0 | 1.3956 (LW * 1.0539) | beat Desperados by 14 |
| 6 (LW) | Tampa Bay Storm | 8-8-0 | 1.3746 (LW * 1.0030) | Bye |
| 7 (LW+3) | Dallas Desperados | 12-5-0 | 1.3643 (LW * 0.9670) | lost to Dragons by 14 |
| 8 (LW+1) | Cleveland Gladiators | 10-7-0 | 1.3527 (LW * 1.0028) | beat Predators by 3 |
| 9 (LW-3) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 7-10-0 | 1.3029 (LW * 1.0278) | beat Rattlers by 7 |
| 10 (LW+1) | Utah Blaze | 6-11-0 | 1.2894 (LW * 0.9766) | lost to Crush by 5 |
| 11 (LW) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-8-0 | 1.2826 (LW * 1.0036) | Bye |
| 12 (LW+2) | Orlando Predators | 9-8-0 | 1.2785 (LW * 0.9979) | lost to Gladiators by 3 |
| 13 (LW-1) | Colorado Crush | 7-10-0 | 1.2490 (LW * 1.0302) | beat Blaze by 5 |
| 14 (LW+1) | Arizona Rattlers | 8-9-0 | 1.2041 (LW * 0.9762) | lost to Rampage by 7 |
| 15 (LW) | Los Angeles Avengers | 5-11-0 | 1.1382 (LW * 0.9991) | Bye |
| 16 (LW) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-13-0 | 1.1279 (LW * 1.0055) | Bye |
| 17 (LW) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-13-0 | 1.1210 (LW * 1.0081) | Bye |
Thursday, June 26, 2008
AFL Playoffs, round 1: Game Picks
Picks for the first round of the playoffs.
Another weakness of the "final score" style of power rankings: teams like Arizona (who has known their playoff seed since kickoff of their week 16 game) may look weaker than they really are.
Note that since Utah and Colorado are both 6-10, there will be a 6-10 team advance to the second round of the playoffs...
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| New York Dragons @ Dallas Desperados | Desperados ρ=1.0655 | Desperados δ= 5.1 | Desperados |
| Colorado Crush @ Utah Blaze | Blaze ρ=1.0890 | Blaze δ= 3.5 | Blaze |
| Orlando Predators @ Cleveland Gladiators | Gladiators ρ=1.0529 | Gladiators δ= 0.5 | Gladiators |
| Grand Rapids Rampage @ Arizona Rattlers | Rampage ρ=1.0277 | Rampage δ= 2.6 | Rattlers |
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
AFL Week 17 Pick Results and Power Rankings
Pick Standings
APR finishes the regular season a game ahead of SRS, and 1.5 games ahead of ITP.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 15 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 16 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 17 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 81 | 46 | 1 | ) | ( | 80 | 47 | 1 | ) | ( | 80 | 48 | 0 | ) | ( | 76 | 52 | 0 | ) |
| 63.7% | 62.9% | 62.5% | 59.4% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Philadelphia finishes with a pretty convincing #1 ranking, with Dallas a pretty distant 4th place, in spite of their 2nd-best record.
3 teams with losing records (Utah, Grand Rapids, and Colorado, all 6-10) make the playoffs, while 2 0.500 teams (Tampa Bay and New Orleans) are done for the season.
Highest ranked team out of the playoffs: #6 Tampa Bay (8-8). Lowest ranked team in the playoffs: #14 Colorado (6-10).
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 13-3-0 | 1.5135 (LW * 1.0300) | beat Dragons by 29 |
| 2 (LW-2) | San Jose SaberCats | 11-5-0 | 1.4454 (LW * 1.0129) | beat Force by 6 |
| 3 (LW+1) | Georgia Force | 10-6-0 | 1.4397 (LW * 0.9867) | lost to SaberCats by 6 |
| 4 (LW+1) | Dallas Desperados | 12-4-0 | 1.4109 (LW * 0.9745) | lost to Rush by 12 |
| 5 (LW-2) | Chicago Rush | 11-5-0 | 1.3984 (LW * 1.0349) | beat Desperados by 12 |
| 6 (LW) | Tampa Bay Storm | 8-8-0 | 1.3705 (LW * 1.0093) | beat Avengers by 25 |
| 7 (LW-1) | Cleveland Gladiators | 9-7-0 | 1.3489 (LW * 1.0033) | beat Destroyers by 12 |
| 8 (LW+3) | New York Dragons | 8-8-0 | 1.3242 (LW * 0.9599) | lost to Soul by 29 |
| 9 (LW-3) | Utah Blaze | 6-10-0 | 1.3203 (LW * 1.0578) | beat Rattlers by 17 |
| 10 (LW) | Orlando Predators | 9-7-0 | 1.2811 (LW * 0.9954) | Bye |
| 11 (LW+2) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-8-0 | 1.2780 (LW * 0.9507) | lost to Rampage by 16 |
| 12 (LW-1) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 6-10-0 | 1.2677 (LW * 1.0661) | beat VooDoo by 16 |
| 13 (LW+2) | Arizona Rattlers | 8-8-0 | 1.2334 (LW * 0.9615) | lost to Blaze by 17 |
| 14 (LW) | Colorado Crush | 6-10-0 | 1.2124 (LW * 1.0313) | beat Brigade by 24 |
| 15 (LW) | Los Angeles Avengers | 5-11-0 | 1.1392 (LW * 0.9890) | lost to Storm by 25 |
| 16 (LW) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-13-0 | 1.1218 (LW * 0.9844) | lost to Crush by 24 |
| 17 (LW) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-13-0 | 1.1120 (LW * 1.0019) | lost to Gladiators by 12 |
Saturday, June 21, 2008
AFL Week 17: Game picks
Picks for week 17.
Last week of the regular season. None of these picks take into account teams with a clinched playoff spot, and will be resting some of their players for the playoffs.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| Grand Rapids Rampage @ New Orleans VooDoo | VooDoo ρ=1.1305 | VooDoo δ= 8.3 | VooDoo |
| Columbus Destroyers @ Cleveland Gladiators | Gladiators ρ=1.2114 | Gladiators δ= 7.8 | Gladiators |
| Los Angeles Avengers @ Tampa Bay Storm | Storm ρ=1.1788 | Storm δ=10.1 | Storm |
| Kansas City Brigade @ Colorado Crush | Crush ρ=1.0316 | Crush δ= 3.5 | Crush |
| Utah Blaze @ Arizona Rattlers | Rattlers ρ=1.0277 | Blaze δ= 0.5 | Rattlers |
| Georgia Force @ San Jose SaberCats | Force ρ=1.0225 | Force δ= 2.5 | SaberCats |
| Philadelphia Soul @ New York Dragons | Soul ρ=1.0652 | Soul δ= 8.7 | Soul |
| Dallas Desperados @ Chicago Rush | Desperados ρ=1.0714 | Rush δ= 1.9 | Desperados |
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
AFL Week 16 Pick Results and Power Rankings
Pick Standings
APR misses just 2 games, both unanimous picks. For one (Colorado @ Arizona), Arizona had already clinched the #3 playoff seed at kickoff, and don't have anything to play for.
Interestingly, in spite of the wide spread of records, a lot of stuff still hangs in the balance. Dallas and Philadelphia are in the same division, the winner will not be determined until the final games of the season.
Another thing that has to be regarded as a pretty big embarrasment: in the American Conference, three 10-loss teams will make the playoffs (and, depending on how next week goes, maybe an 11-loss team). Yet in the National Conference, at least one 8-win team will end up on the outside looking in.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 15 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 16 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 77 | 42 | 1 | ) | ( | 74 | 45 | 1 | ) | ( | 75 | 45 | 0 | ) | ( | 71 | 49 | 0 | ) |
| 64.6% | 62.1% | 62.5% | 59.2% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Only one game decided by more than 3 points this week, so except for Arizona and Colorado, not much motion. Note that the top 4 teams have pretty close power indexes.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 12-3-0 | 1.4694 (LW * 0.9920) | beat Gladiators by 1 |
| 2 (LW) | Georgia Force | 10-5-0 | 1.4591 (LW * 0.9873) | beat Rush by 3 |
| 3 (LW) | Dallas Desperados | 12-3-0 | 1.4478 (LW * 0.9997) | beat Dragons by 2 |
| 4 (LW) | San Jose SaberCats | 10-5-0 | 1.4270 (LW * 1.0018) | beat Storm by 3 |
| 5 (LW) | New York Dragons | 8-7-0 | 1.3795 (LW * 1.0014) | lost to Desperados by 2 |
| 6 (LW-1) | Tampa Bay Storm | 7-8-0 | 1.3579 (LW * 0.9977) | lost to SaberCats by 3 |
| 7 (LW-2) | Chicago Rush | 10-5-0 | 1.3513 (LW * 1.0118) | lost to Force by 3 |
| 8 (LW-2) | Cleveland Gladiators | 8-7-0 | 1.3445 (LW * 1.0140) | lost to Soul by 1 |
| 9 (LW+3) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-7-0 | 1.3443 (LW * 0.9833) | lost to Predators by 2 |
| 10 (LW-1) | Orlando Predators | 9-7-0 | 1.2870 (LW * 1.0088) | beat VooDoo by 2 |
| 11 (LW+3) | Arizona Rattlers | 8-7-0 | 1.2828 (LW * 0.9581) | lost to Crush by 7 |
| 12 (LW) | Utah Blaze | 5-10-0 | 1.2482 (LW * 1.0075) | Bye |
| 13 (LW) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 5-10-0 | 1.1891 (LW * 1.0215) | beat Destroyers by 3 |
| 14 (LW-3) | Colorado Crush | 5-10-0 | 1.1756 (LW * 1.0671) | beat Rattlers by 7 |
| 15 (LW+1) | Los Angeles Avengers | 5-10-0 | 1.1519 (LW * 1.0036) | beat Brigade by 3 |
| 16 (LW+1) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-12-0 | 1.1395 (LW * 0.9945) | lost to Avengers by 3 |
| 17 (LW+1) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-12-0 | 1.1099 (LW * 0.9839) | lost to Rampage by 3 |
Friday, June 13, 2008
AFL Week 16 Game Picks
Picks for week 16. Only Chicago @ Georgia is not a unanimous pick.
None of these pick methods take into account whether or not teams have anything to play for in the postseason, so take things with an extra-large grain of salt as the postseason starts to firm up.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| New Orleans VooDoo @ Orlando Predators | VooDoo ρ=1.0716 | VooDoo δ= 5.0 | VooDoo |
| Grand Rapids Rampage @ Columbus Destroyers | Rampage ρ=1.0319 | Rampage δ= 3.8 | Rampage |
| Chicago Rush @ Georgia Force | Force ρ=1.1066 | Rush δ= 2.1 | Rush |
| Cleveland Gladiators @ Philadelphia Soul | Soul ρ=1.1171 | Soul δ=10.5 | Soul |
| New York Dragons @ Dallas Desperados | Desperados ρ=1.0513 | Desperados δ= 4.8 | Desperados |
| Tampa Bay Storm @ San Jose SaberCats | SaberCats ρ=1.0466 | SaberCats δ= 1.9 | SaberCats |
| Kansas City Brigade @ Los Angeles Avengers | Avengers ρ=1.0017 | Avengers δ= 1.7 | Avengers |
| Colorado Crush @ Arizona Rattlers | Rattlers ρ=1.2154 | Rattlers δ= 4.8 | Rattlers |
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
AFL Week 15: Pick Results and Power Rankings
Pick Standings
ITP takes a major hit, and APR takes the lead in games called correctly.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 15 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 71 | 40 | 1 | ) | ( | 69 | 42 | 1 | ) | ( | 70 | 42 | 0 | ) | ( | 65 | 47 | 0 | ) |
| 63.8% | 62.1% | 62.5% | 58.0% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Dallas finds their stay in the top spot brief, thanks to their inability to beat Philly. Chicago would probably be in the mix too, except for their devastating 19-point loss to Grand Rapids.
Of course, Chicago has already clinched their division and a first-round bye, so they may be coasting a bit (and with the head-to-head tie-breaker, they've essentially got a game-and-a-half lead over San Jose for HFA).
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW-2) | Philadelphia Soul | 11-3-0 | 1.4813 (LW * 1.0344) | beat Desperados by 7 |
| 2 (LW) | Georgia Force | 9-5-0 | 1.4779 (LW * 1.0174) | beat Destroyers by 29 |
| 3 (LW+2) | Dallas Desperados | 11-3-0 | 1.4482 (LW * 0.9792) | lost to Soul by 7 |
| 4 (LW) | San Jose SaberCats | 9-5-0 | 1.4245 (LW * 1.0003) | Bye |
| 5 (LW-2) | New York Dragons | 8-6-0 | 1.3776 (LW * 1.0276) | beat VooDoo by 7 |
| 6 (LW) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-6-0 | 1.3672 (LW * 0.9848) | lost to Dragons by 7 |
| 7 (LW-1) | Tampa Bay Storm | 7-7-0 | 1.3611 (LW * 1.0221) | beat Predators by 10 |
| 8 (LW-1) | Arizona Rattlers | 8-6-0 | 1.3389 (LW * 1.0349) | beat Brigade by 39 |
| 9 (LW+4) | Chicago Rush | 10-4-0 | 1.3356 (LW * 0.9583) | lost to Gladiators by 21 |
| 10 (LW-1) | Cleveland Gladiators | 8-6-0 | 1.3260 (LW * 1.0437) | beat Rush by 21 |
| 11 (LW+1) | Orlando Predators | 8-7-0 | 1.2758 (LW * 0.9878) | lost to Storm by 10 |
| 12 (LW) | Utah Blaze | 5-10-0 | 1.2388 (LW * 1.0061) | beat Avengers by 9 |
| 13 (LW-3) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 4-10-0 | 1.1640 (LW * 1.0247) | beat Crush by 19 |
| 14 (LW) | Los Angeles Avengers | 4-10-0 | 1.1478 (LW * 0.9962) | lost to Blaze by 9 |
| 15 (LW+2) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-11-0 | 1.1459 (LW * 0.9621) | lost to Rattlers by 39 |
| 16 (LW+1) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-11-0 | 1.1280 (LW * 0.9844) | lost to Force by 29 |
| 17 (LW) | Colorado Crush | 4-10-0 | 1.1016 (LW * 0.9730) | lost to Rampage by 19 |
Friday, June 6, 2008
AFL Week 15: Game Picks
Picks for week 15.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| Colorado Crush @ Grand Rapids Rampage | Rampage ρ=1.0034 | Rampage δ= 2.3 | Crush |
| Georgia Force @ Columbus Destroyers | Force ρ=1.2676 | Force δ=10.6 | Force |
| New Orleans VooDoo @ New York Dragons | VooDoo ρ=1.0356 | VooDoo δ= 5.5 | VooDoo |
| Chicago Rush @ Cleveland Gladiators | Rush ρ=1.0970 | Rush δ=12.6 | Rush |
| Orlando Predators @ Tampa Bay Storm | Storm ρ=1.0310 | Storm δ= 0.2 | Predators |
| Philadelphia Soul @ Dallas Desperados | Desperados ρ=1.0328 | Soul δ= 4.9 | Desperados |
| Arizona Rattlers @ Kansas City Brigade | Rattlers ρ=1.0863 | Rattlers δ= 2.2 | Rattlers |
| Los Angeles Avengers @ Utah Blaze | Blaze ρ=1.0687 | Blaze δ= 5.5 | Avengers |
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
AFL Week 14: Pick Standings and Power Rankings
Pick Standings
Arizona continues to make their case that they're underrated. And, for once, APR is on the happy side of a disagreement with ITP.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 14 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 66 | 37 | 1 | ) | ( | 63 | 40 | 1 | ) | ( | 68 | 36 | 0 | ) | ( | 60 | 44 | 0 | ) |
| 63.9% | 61.1% | 65.4% | 57.7% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Dallas finally gets to the top spot, thanks to a strong win over Cleveland. The botom four teams are all clustered pretty close together, so there's a lot of churn based on how bad APR decides each team's loss is. Note that 6 teams from each conference makes the playoffs, so
At 7-6, Arizona has clinched a playoff spot (thanks to the fact that only 3 teams in their conference are north of 4 wins).
At least one 10-loss and one 9-loss team is going to the playoffs. But that's what happens when the regular season only eliminates 3 teams from the playoffs.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW-1) | Dallas Desperados | 11-2-0 | 1.4790 (LW * 1.0240) | beat Gladiators by 16 |
| 2 (LW+1) | Georgia Force | 8-5-0 | 1.4526 (LW * 1.0008) | beat Storm by 1 |
| 3 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 10-3-0 | 1.4319 (LW * 0.9980) | Bye |
| 4 (LW-1) | San Jose SaberCats | 9-5-0 | 1.4241 (LW * 1.0150) | beat Avengers by 10 |
| 5 (LW+1) | Chicago Rush | 10-3-0 | 1.3937 (LW * 0.9818) | beat Brigade by 5 |
| 6 (LW) | New Orleans VooDoo | 8-5-0 | 1.3883 (LW * 1.0143) | beat Destroyers by 22 |
| 7 (LW-2) | New York Dragons | 7-6-0 | 1.3406 (LW * 1.0047) | beat Crush by 8 |
| 8 (LW+1) | Tampa Bay Storm | 6-7-0 | 1.3317 (LW * 0.9941) | lost to Force by 1 |
| 9 (LW-2) | Arizona Rattlers | 7-6-0 | 1.2938 (LW * 1.0491) | beat Predators by 7 |
| 10 (LW+2) | Orlando Predators | 8-6-0 | 1.2916 (LW * 0.9645) | lost to Rattlers by 7 |
| 11 (LW+1) | Cleveland Gladiators | 7-6-0 | 1.2704 (LW * 0.9575) | lost to Desperados by 16 |
| 12 (LW) | Utah Blaze | 4-10-0 | 1.2314 (LW * 1.0234) | beat Rampage by 7 |
| 13 (LW) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-10-0 | 1.1910 (LW * 1.0071) | lost to Rush by 5 |
| 14 (LW-3) | Los Angeles Avengers | 4-9-0 | 1.1522 (LW * 0.9962) | lost to SaberCats by 10 |
| 15 (LW+1) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-10-0 | 1.1459 (LW * 0.9839) | lost to VooDoo by 22 |
| 16 (LW+1) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 3-10-0 | 1.1360 (LW * 0.9776) | lost to Blaze by 7 |
| 17 (LW+1) | Colorado Crush | 4-9-0 | 1.1322 (LW * 0.9745) | lost to Dragons by 8 |
Thursday, May 29, 2008
AFL Week 14: Game Picks
For what it's worth. Unanimous picks this week.
PEBCAK alert: somehow, I managed to post the picks for week 11. :-/
I guess one good thing about blogging about a league nobody cares about is that when I make a major goof, nobody notices. Anyway, old picks are deleted, replaced with actual, week 14 picks.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| Columbus Destroyers @ New Orleans VooDoo | VooDoo ρ=1.1753 | VooDoo δ= 9.8 | VooDoo |
| Dallas Desperados @ Cleveland Gladiators | Desperados ρ=1.0885 | Desperados δ= 6.6 | Desperados |
| Tampa Bay Storm @ Georgia Force | Force ρ=1.0835 | Force δ= 3.8 | Force |
| Arizona Rattlers @ Orlando Predators | Predators ρ=1.0859 | Predators δ= 8.3 | Predators |
| Kansas City Brigade @ Chicago Rush | Rush ρ=1.2002 | Rush δ=19.9 | Rush |
| San Jose SaberCats @ Los Angeles Avengers | SaberCats ρ=1.2131 | SaberCats δ=12.7 | SaberCats |
| Utah Blaze @ Grand Rapids Rampage | Blaze ρ=1.0354 | Rampage δ= 0.1 | Rampage |
| New York Dragons @ Colorado Crush | Dragons ρ=1.1485 | Dragons δ= 6.0 | Dragons |
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
AFL Week 13: Pick Standings and Power Rankings
Pick Standings
Once again, a bunch of big upsets, and the home teams are 5-3. The once-mighty Philadelphia Soul are now 1-3 in their last four. Kansas City, Columbus, and Utah all get their third win against what looked like formiddable odds (and KC is one of the three road teams to win this week).
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 13 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 59 | 36 | 1 | ) | ( | 57 | 38 | 1 | ) | ( | 62 | 34 | 0 | ) | ( | 57 | 39 | 0 | ) |
| 62.0% | 59.9% | 64.6% | 59.4% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Philly's losses finally cost them the top spot, thanks in part to big wins by Georgia and Dallas (Dallas' devastating loss to Arizona last week costs them the top spot).
On the other end, Los Angeles' power index goes up a bit on their Bye week, but with big wins by KC and Columbus, it's not enough to keep them out of the bottom spot.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW-2) | Georgia Force | 7-5-0 | 1.4515 (LW * 1.0364) | beat VooDoo by 11 |
| 2 (LW-5) | Dallas Desperados | 10-2-0 | 1.4443 (LW * 1.0570) | beat Predators by 26 |
| 3 (LW+2) | Philadelphia Soul | 10-3-0 | 1.4348 (LW * 0.9616) | lost to Brigade by 7 |
| 4 (LW+2) | Chicago Rush | 9-3-0 | 1.4194 (LW * 0.9813) | lost to Blaze by 3 |
| 5 (LW-3) | San Jose SaberCats | 8-5-0 | 1.4031 (LW * 1.0291) | beat Crush by 17 |
| 6 (LW+2) | New Orleans VooDoo | 7-5-0 | 1.3688 (LW * 0.9837) | lost to Force by 11 |
| 7 (LW-3) | Tampa Bay Storm | 6-6-0 | 1.3396 (LW * 1.0263) | beat Gladiators by 10 |
| 8 (LW+2) | Orlando Predators | 8-5-0 | 1.3392 (LW * 0.9798) | lost to Desperados by 26 |
| 9 (LW) | New York Dragons | 6-6-0 | 1.3344 (LW * 0.9849) | lost to Destroyers by 2 |
| 10 (LW+5) | Cleveland Gladiators | 7-5-0 | 1.3269 (LW * 0.9684) | lost to Storm by 10 |
| 11 (LW) | Arizona Rattlers | 6-6-0 | 1.2333 (LW * 1.0164) | beat Rampage by 4 |
| 12 (LW-2) | Utah Blaze | 3-10-0 | 1.2032 (LW * 1.0519) | beat Rush by 3 |
| 13 (LW-4) | Kansas City Brigade | 3-9-0 | 1.1827 (LW * 1.1111) | beat Soul by 7 |
| 14 (LW-2) | Columbus Destroyers | 3-9-0 | 1.1647 (LW * 1.0432) | beat Dragons by 2 |
| 15 (LW) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 3-9-0 | 1.1621 (LW * 1.0268) | lost to Rattlers by 4 |
| 16 (LW+4) | Colorado Crush | 4-8-0 | 1.1618 (LW * 0.9897) | lost to SaberCats by 17 |
| 17 (LW+4) | Los Angeles Avengers | 4-8-0 | 1.1566 (LW * 1.0011) | Bye |
Thursday, May 22, 2008
AFL Week 13: Game Picks
Only four of the eight games are unanimous picks this week.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| Kansas City Brigade @ Philadelphia Soul | Soul ρ=1.4018 | Soul δ=23.3 | Soul |
| Dallas Desperados @ Orlando Predators | Predators ρ=1.0002 | Predators δ= 0.2 | Desperados |
| Cleveland Gladiators @ Tampa Bay Storm | Gladiators ρ=1.0497 | Storm δ= 0.7 | Gladiators |
| New York Dragons @ Columbus Destroyers | Dragons ρ=1.2135 | Dragons δ= 6.2 | Dragons |
| Chicago Rush @ Utah Blaze | Rush ρ=1.2647 | Rush δ=18.5 | Rush |
| Grand Rapids Rampage @ Arizona Rattlers | Rattlers ρ=1.0722 | Rampage δ= 4.5 | Rattlers |
| Colorado Crush @ San Jose SaberCats | SaberCats ρ=1.1615 | SaberCats δ= 8.1 | SaberCats |
| Georgia Force @ New Orleans VooDoo | Force ρ=1.0066 | VooDoo δ= 1.9 | VooDoo |
AFL Week 12: Pick Standings and Power Rankings
Pick Standings
The only upset this week was Arizona beating Dallas (on the road!). SRS gets credit for picking the Georgia @ NY game. ITP still has a 3-game lead over 2nd-best APR.
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 12 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 56 | 31 | 1 | ) | ( | 55 | 32 | 1 | ) | ( | 59 | 29 | 0 | ) | ( | 52 | 36 | 0 | ) |
| 64.2% | 63.1% | 67.0% | 59.1% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Georgia leaps up 4 spots on beating the formerly 4th-place New York Dragons. Before this week, it was looking like Dallas had a chance to move ahead of Philly into first place, but a bad loss to Arizona costs them big time. Arizona moves up 3 spots, but they're still in the bottom half of the rankings.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 10-2-0 | 1.4921 (LW * 0.9762) | beat Destroyers by 8 |
| 2 (LW) | Chicago Rush | 9-2-0 | 1.4465 (LW * 1.0064) | beat Avengers by 44 |
| 3 (LW-4) | Georgia Force | 6-5-0 | 1.4006 (LW * 1.0222) | beat Dragons by 5 |
| 4 (LW-2) | New Orleans VooDoo | 7-4-0 | 1.3914 (LW * 1.0092) | Bye |
| 5 (LW) | Cleveland Gladiators | 7-4-0 | 1.3701 (LW * 0.9862) | beat Crush by 4 |
| 6 (LW-2) | Orlando Predators | 8-4-0 | 1.3668 (LW * 1.0029) | beat Brigade by 7 |
| 7 (LW+4) | Dallas Desperados | 9-2-0 | 1.3665 (LW * 0.9519) | lost to Rattlers by 1 |
| 8 (LW-1) | San Jose SaberCats | 7-5-0 | 1.3634 (LW * 1.0034) | beat Blaze by 10 |
| 9 (LW+5) | New York Dragons | 6-5-0 | 1.3548 (LW * 0.9731) | lost to Force by 5 |
| 10 (LW) | Tampa Bay Storm | 5-6-0 | 1.3052 (LW * 1.0268) | beat Rampage by 8 |
| 11 (LW-3) | Arizona Rattlers | 5-6-0 | 1.2134 (LW * 1.0596) | beat Desperados by 1 |
| 12 (LW+1) | Colorado Crush | 4-7-0 | 1.1739 (LW * 0.9872) | lost to Gladiators by 4 |
| 13 (LW) | Los Angeles Avengers | 4-8-0 | 1.1553 (LW * 0.9905) | lost to Rush by 44 |
| 14 (LW-1) | Utah Blaze | 2-10-0 | 1.1438 (LW * 0.9991) | lost to SaberCats by 10 |
| 15 (LW+3) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 3-8-0 | 1.1317 (LW * 0.9659) | lost to Storm by 8 |
| 16 (LW) | Columbus Destroyers | 2-9-0 | 1.1164 (LW * 1.0069) | lost to Soul by 8 |
| 17 (LW) | Kansas City Brigade | 2-9-0 | 1.0644 (LW * 0.9922) | lost to Predators by 7 |
Thursday, May 15, 2008
AFL Week 12: Game Picks
Georgia @ New York is the only game the algorithms aren't unanimous on.
| Game | APR | SRS | ITP |
| Tampa Bay Storm @ Grand Rapids Rampage | Storm ρ=1.0849 | Storm δ= 2.3 | Storm |
| Columbus Destroyers @ Philadelphia Soul | Soul ρ=1.3786 | Soul δ=20.4 | Soul |
| Arizona Rattlers @ Dallas Desperados | Desperados ρ=1.2536 | Desperados δ=13.0 | Desperados |
| Cleveland Gladiators @ Colorado Crush | Gladiators ρ=1.1684 | Gladiators δ= 5.7 | Gladiators |
| Utah Blaze @ San Jose SaberCats | SaberCats ρ=1.1870 | SaberCats δ= 7.6 | SaberCats |
| Orlando Predators @ Kansas City Brigade | Predators ρ=1.2703 | Predators δ=15.6 | Predators |
| Georgia Force @ New York Dragons | Dragons ρ=1.0161 | Force δ= 2.8 | Dragons |
| Los Angeles Avengers @ Chicago Rush | Rush ρ=1.2322 | Rush δ=17.9 | Rush |
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
AFL Pick Results and Week 11 Power Rankings
Pick Results
What is the deal with the AFL? Philadelphia takes their second loss, Utah and Kansas City both get their second wins... and for the third week in a row, only two home teams lost. Too much partying on the road?
| APR | SRS | ITP | Home | |||||||||||||||||
| Week 2 | ( | 7 | 0 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 2 | 1 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) |
| Week 3 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 4 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) |
| Week 5 | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 6 | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 8 | 0 | 0 | ) |
| Week 7 | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) |
| Week 8 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 5 | 3 | 0 | ) | ( | 7 | 1 | 0 | ) | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) |
| Week 9 | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 10 | ( | 2 | 6 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 4 | 4 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Week 11 | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 3 | 5 | 0 | ) | ( | 6 | 2 | 0 | ) |
| Totals: | ( | 50 | 29 | 1 | ) | ( | 48 | 31 | 1 | ) | ( | 53 | 27 | 0 | ) | ( | 49 | 31 | 0 | ) |
| 63.1% | 60.6% | 66.2% | 61.3% | |||||||||||||||||
Power Rankings
Thanks to a still-considerable lead, Philadelphia maintains the top spot in spite of losing to the 5-5 Georgia force. Dallas actually loses ground, because of a relatively (to APR, anyway) unimpressive win over the very weak Los Angeles Avengers. Kansas City stays in last place in spite of a 16-point win, partly because the formerly 16th-place Utah Blaze moved up even more on their win.
Every team now has at least two wins. Dallas is the only team that doesn't have at least 2 losses. In their division, Arizona is only a half-game ahead of 3rd-place Los Angeles.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
| 1 (LW) | Philadelphia Soul | 9-2-0 | 1.5286 (LW * 0.9824) | lost to Force by 1 |
| 2 (LW-1) | Chicago Rush | 8-2-0 | 1.4373 (LW * 1.0013) | Bye |
| 3 (LW+1) | Dallas Desperados | 9-1-0 | 1.4355 (LW * 0.9878) | beat Rampage by 11 |
| 4 (LW-2) | New York Dragons | 6-4-0 | 1.3923 (LW * 1.0045) | beat Avengers by 4 |
| 5 (LW-2) | Cleveland Gladiators | 6-4-0 | 1.3893 (LW * 1.0425) | beat Predators by 19 |
| 6 (LW+1) | New Orleans VooDoo | 7-4-0 | 1.3787 (LW * 0.9940) | lost to Storm by 4 |
| 7 (LW-1) | Georgia Force | 5-5-0 | 1.3702 (LW * 1.0414) | beat Soul by 1 |
| 8 (LW+4) | Orlando Predators | 7-4-0 | 1.3629 (LW * 0.9788) | lost to Gladiators by 19 |
| 9 (LW) | San Jose SaberCats | 6-5-0 | 1.3588 (LW * 1.0471) | beat Rattlers by 21 |
| 10 (LW) | Tampa Bay Storm | 4-6-0 | 1.2712 (LW * 1.0207) | beat VooDoo by 4 |
| 11 (LW) | Colorado Crush | 4-6-0 | 1.1891 (LW * 0.9603) | lost to Blaze by 35 |
| 12 (LW-3) | Grand Rapids Rampage | 3-7-0 | 1.1717 (LW * 1.0224) | lost to Desperados by 11 |
| 13 (LW-1) | Los Angeles Avengers | 4-7-0 | 1.1665 (LW * 1.0108) | lost to Dragons by 4 |
| 14 (LW+2) | Arizona Rattlers | 4-6-0 | 1.1451 (LW * 0.9799) | lost to SaberCats by 21 |
| 15 (LW-1) | Utah Blaze | 2-9-0 | 1.1448 (LW * 1.0794) | beat Crush by 35 |
| 16 (LW+3) | Columbus Destroyers | 2-8-0 | 1.1088 (LW * 0.9543) | lost to Brigade by 16 |
| 17 (LW) | Kansas City Brigade | 2-8-0 | 1.0728 (LW * 1.0790) | beat Destroyers by 16 |
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