NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Patriots (SRS, Line) vs. Seahawks (APR)

As you know if you read my game picks post, I was leaning towards the Patriots winning this game. But the Seahawks stayed in this, and came a lot closer to winning than I really expected.

Especially with close games like this that are back and forth in the 4th quarter and come down to the last seconds of the game, I feel like I'm picking nits to talk about why one team won and the other lost, but there are a couple things worth looking at.

As mentioned in the power rankings comments, the Seahawks had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. If their defense gets one more stop, (or even just holds once for a field goal), they win. Instead they allowed the Patriots two long drives ending with touchdowns that erased their 10 point lead, and left them in a 4 point hole. Giving up two touchdowns was especially painful, because it meant their final drive was touchdown or bust.

The Seahawks offense established that 10 point lead with 5 minutes to play in the third quarter, and they had the ball three times before that final drive. If they score one more touchdown, they win. Instead, they punted three times, and had their final drive end with a turnover.

In the end, I think one of the big problems for the Seahawks was their offense was just too boom-or-bust, too dependent on the big play. In a situation like they had at the end of this game, where they needed a more methodical approach using high percentage plays, they just didn't seem to know how to do it, and it ended up costing them a win.

That's it for the regularly scheduled posts for the 2014 season. I'm planning to do the usual Pythagorean wrap up post, and then that will likely be it until July. Have a good offseason!

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	0	-	1			7	-	4		63.6%
SRS	1	-	0			9	-	2		81.8%
Line	1	-	0			9	-	2		81.8%

NFL Super Bowl Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.0996 (LW × 0.9842)	14-5	Lost by 4 vs Patriots
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0942 (LW × 1.0133)	15-4	Won by 4 @ Seahawks
3 (-)	Packers	1.0207 (LW × 0.9985)	13-5	Bye
4 (↑1)	Bills	0.9860 (LW × 1.0013)	9-7	Bye
5 (↓1)	Cowboys	0.9837 (LW × 0.9977)	13-5	Bye
6 (-)	Colts	0.9690 (LW × 1.0009)	13-6	Bye
7 (-)	Broncos	0.9674 (LW × 0.9993)	12-5	Bye
8 (-)	Ravens	0.9649 (LW × 1.0008)	11-7	Bye
9 (-)	Steelers	0.9592 (LW × 0.9992)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Chiefs	0.9541 (LW × 0.9968)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9343 (LW × 0.9957)	10-6	Bye
12 (-)	Lions	0.9156 (LW × 0.9999)	11-6	Bye
13 (-)	Texans	0.9042 (LW × 0.9992)	9-7	Bye
14 (-)	Bengals	0.8989 (LW × 0.9993)	10-6-1	Bye
15 (-)	Cardinals	0.8931 (LW × 0.9937)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Dolphins	0.8870 (LW × 1.0018)	8-8	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8711 (LW × 0.9945)	6-10	Bye
18 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8701 (LW × 0.9993)	9-7	Bye
19 (↓1)	Panthers	0.8683 (LW × 0.9957)	8-9-1	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8590 (LW × 0.9994)	7-9	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8501 (LW × 1.0021)	4-12	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8438 (LW × 0.9976)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	49ers	0.8384 (LW × 0.9938)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Giants	0.8319 (LW × 0.9959)	6-10	Bye
25 (-)	Saints	0.8161 (LW × 0.9980)	7-9	Bye
26 (-)	Browns	0.8113 (LW × 0.9990)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Raiders	0.8067 (LW × 0.9967)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7755 (LW × 0.9998)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7599 (LW × 0.9992)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7473 (LW × 0.9984)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7381 (LW × 0.9968)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6819 (LW × 0.9990)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• Patriots gain in power, but not quite enough to overtake the Seahawks for first place. I'm sure they'll get over it.

• This was only the third Super Bowl to be tied at halftime (along with SB XXIII 49ers vs. Bengals and SB XXXIX Eagles vs. Patriots).

• The 2014 Patriots also join the 2007 Giants and the 2008 Steelers as the only teams to win the Super Bowl after trailing in the 4th quarter.

• The Seahawks lose in possibly the most painful way possible, blowing a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter, and then throwing a game sealing interception on 2nd and goal at the 1 with seconds left to play.

• A lot of people have already said this, but especially with a timeout left, handing off to Lynch is a pretty obvious play call there. Or if you're gonna pass, throw a fade off play action or something. Throwing over the middle like that seems like the worst possible decision there.

• As a football fan, I think this was maybe the most satifying Super Bowl since the Saints beat the Colts in SB XLI (of course I will recuse myself from judging SB XLV).

NFL Super Bowl Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Patriots @ Seahawks	Seahawks* ρ=1.0346	Patriots* δ=2.9	Patriots -1

Comments:

• So a lot of questions for this game. What happened to the Seahawks in the first 57 or so minutes of the NFC Championship Game? A fluke, or something the Patriots can take advantage of? If the Patriots can make the Seahawks look even half that bad in the Super Bowl, the Seahawks are going to find out what it's like to be on the short end of a lop-sided result in this Super Bowl.

• How good is the Seahawks defense, really? My feeling is the Seahawks defense isn't quite as good as their reputation. Since they lost to the Cowboys in week 6, the Seahawks played five games against opponents starting their second or third quarterback. Eight of those games were played against teams that finished in the bottom half of the league when ranked by points scored. The Seahawks did allow the fewest points of any team this year, but it's not like they faced a Murderer's Row of offenses, either. I think the Seahawks defense is overrated, and definitely not as good as they were last year.

• Can the Patriots score on the Seahawks defense? An inability to score on a good defense was the problem for the Patriots in 2007 and 2011. But they have a lot of impressive wins this seasons, including blow out victories over the Bengals, Broncos, Colts (twice), Lions, and Chargers. I don't think the Patriots need to score a lot of points to win this game, as the Seahawks are just 1-4 when their opponent scores 24+ points.

• The last two times the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl, they lost because they couldn't score on the Giants' defense. If they lose again Sunday, I think the reason will have to be because of the Seahawks' defense.

• Like last year, I think this game will be decided when the Seahawks' defense is facing their opponent's offense. But this time around, I think the Seahawks' offense is weak enough that if their offense does have a slow start, the Patriots won't have to worry about falling into a deep hole by halftime like the Broncos did last year.

NFL Championship Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Packers @ Seahawks (SRS, APR, Line)

It seemed like almost everyhing that went wrong for the Packers this season was on display in this game. They settled for field goals after driving into the red zone. They had ugly break downs on special teams. And (for the Seahawks' last three drives) the defense didn't look like they could stop anything.

Just a really frustrating experience, to be gifted a game where the Seahawks, for 57 minutes of game time, played like they didn't have any business with the top seed in the NFC. And the frustrating thing is, everything the Seahawks needed to go their way happened. If the Packers got a touchdown on either one of their early drives, they win. If the Packers recover the onside kick, they win. If the Packers tip away the two point conversion, they win. If the Packers get a touchdown on their last drive, they win.

But the Seahawks got all those breaks to go their way, and to their credit, they managed to put together three very good drives, all ending with touchdowns, right when they desperately needed needed them, and it won them the game.

Colts @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

This game, on the other hand, went pretty much as expected. Much like in their regular season meeting, the Patriots offense didn't have much trouble scoring repeatedly on the Colts defense.

Somehow Andrew Luck and the Colts managed to keep it to a relatively close 10 point differential at halftime, but an ineffective passing game, and too few attempts at running the ball meant that the Patriots had a pretty easy time scoring three unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter, which put the game well out of reach of the Colts.

Totals

Well, at least a clean sweep for picks this week.

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	0			7	-	3		70%
SRS	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%
Line	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%

NFL Championship Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1173 (LW × 1.0115)	14-4	Won by 6 vs Packers
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0799 (LW × 1.0134)	14-4	Won by 38 vs Colts
3 (-)	Packers	1.0223 (LW × 1.0121)	13-5	Lost by 6 @ Seahawks
4 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9860 (LW × 0.9987)	13-5	Bye
5 (↑1)	Bills	0.9847 (LW × 1.0035)	9-7	Bye
6 (↓2)	Colts	0.9682 (LW × 0.9782)	13-6	Lost by 38 @ Patriots
7 (-)	Broncos	0.9681 (LW × 0.9989)	12-5	Bye
8 (-)	Ravens	0.9641 (LW × 0.9988)	11-7	Bye
9 (-)	Steelers	0.9600 (LW × 0.9971)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Chiefs	0.9571 (LW × 1.0020)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9384 (LW × 1.0005)	10-6	Bye
12 (-)	Lions	0.9156 (LW × 1.0039)	11-6	Bye
13 (-)	Texans	0.9049 (LW × 0.9933)	9-7	Bye
14 (-)	Bengals	0.8996 (LW × 0.9947)	10-6-1	Bye
15 (-)	Cardinals	0.8988 (LW × 1.0035)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Dolphins	0.8854 (LW × 1.0026)	8-8	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8759 (LW × 1.0020)	6-10	Bye
18 (-)	Panthers	0.8721 (LW × 1.0022)	8-9-1	Bye
19 (-)	Chargers	0.8707 (LW × 1.0021)	9-7	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8596 (LW × 1.0031)	7-9	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8483 (LW × 1.0026)	4-12	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8458 (LW × 1.0015)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	49ers	0.8436 (LW × 1.0027)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Giants	0.8353 (LW × 0.9980)	6-10	Bye
25 (-)	Saints	0.8177 (LW × 1.0006)	7-9	Bye
26 (-)	Browns	0.8121 (LW × 0.9961)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Raiders	0.8093 (LW × 1.0017)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7756 (LW × 1.0033)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7605 (LW × 0.9941)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7485 (LW × 1.0012)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7405 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6826 (LW × 0.9946)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• As I indicated in the game picks I wasn't expecting the Packers to win this. But perhaps except for a full-on blow out, I'm not sure they could've lost in a more disappointing manner.

• The top 3 remain pretty much the same, the Colts drop out of the top 5 after getting blown out in their game. At least moderately surprisingly, there's no shuffling around in the lower ranks. Usually there's at least a couple teams close enough to switch ranks based on secondary effects.

• Tom Brady will (presumably) start a record sixth Super Bowl (breaking the tie he was in with John Elway, who has five).

• The Seahawks become the first team since the 2003-2004 Patriots to qualify for the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons.

• A number of teams have back-to-pack wins in the Super Bowl, there are also three that have lost on their return trip: the Cowboys in 1978, the Raiders in 1983, and the Packers in 1997. I'll have more to say in the Super Bowl game picks post, but I think the Seahawks have a chance be the fourth team in that win-loss group.

NFL Championship Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Packers @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0935	Seahawks δ=1.0	Seahawks -7
Colts @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0766	Patriots δ=4.8	Patriots -6½

Comments:

• Like last week, everybody likes the home teams.

• Since some early struggles and a 3-3 start, the Seahawks have finished on a very impressive 9-1 streak. That streak seems a bit less impressive when you notice that 7 of those games were facing offenses in the bottom half of the league (ranked 19th or lower) in points scored. They also played 4 of those games facing teams starting their second or third string quarterbacks (or fourth string, depending on where you want to put Ryan Lindley).

  I feel like the Seahawks are vulnerable to a high scoring team. Their record bears this out, they are 1-4 when their opponent scores 24+ points. On paper, the Packers look look like a team that can take advantage of this weakness.

  The biggest problem with this plan is Aaron Rodgers is hurt, and will almost certainly still be limited for Sunday. Beyond that, the Packers offense has also shown signs of struggling against good defenses, particularly on the road. Two of those games (@ Seahawks and @ Lions) were early in the season, but the third (@ Bills) was just a few weeks ago.

  Another problem for the Packers is their run defense. They've done a lot better since the bye week, but Sunday will be facing the best QB-RB rushing duo in the league. The Cowboys ran for 145 yards last week, and it seems almost certain the Seahawks will be able to surpass that. Maybe the Packers have a chance if they can score early and often, and keep it a game where the Seahawks will feel like they need to pass a lot to stay in it. But I think this is gonna be closer to the season opener, where the Packers kept it close for a while, but the Seahawks pull away in the second half.

• Last week, Andrew Luck and the Colts took a big first step in shaking off their "can't win on the road against good teams" reputation, holding the Broncos to a near-season low of just 13 points, and scoring 24 on a defense that had held opponents to 21 or lower in 10 games. If the Colts can go into Foxborough and beat the Patriots, it will represent an extrordinary sweep of two of the highest regarded quarterbacks in the league, going back 15 years, and go along way to justifying Luck's place at that same level.

  That said, I think this is going to be the end of the line for this year's Colts. They are 0-5 when allowing more than 28 points this season, and the Patriots have reached that mark 9 times this season (including last week's victory over the Ravens). The Patriots are also 11-0 when they score at least 23 points (again counting last week). Unless Tom Brady is hurt too, I don't think the Colts' defense has what it takes to slow down the Patriots enough to keep them in this game.

NFL Divisional Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ Patriots (SRS, APR, Line)

The Ravens' offense certainly did their part in this game, putting up 31 points on the Patriots. But the Ravens' defense allowed the Patriots five sustained drives (the shortest was 67 yards), all ending with touchdowns.

Joe Flacco may actually be maturing into a better quarterback than he was in the first years of his career, but when it takes 36 points to win a game, even the best quarterbacks can be in a toss-up situation.

Panthers @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The Seahawks won this pretty easily, as they were widely expected to. Maybe the most surprising thing about this game is that the Panthers kept it within a single score into the 4th quarter, and if Cam Newton had played a better game, the Panthers might have had a chance for an upset.

Cowboys @ Packers (APR, SRS, Line)

After their initial touchdown drive, the Packers really seemed to struggle in this game, producing drives that ended in a lost fumble, two punts, and two field goals. I really thought this game was all but over when the Cowboys went up 21-13 late in the 3rd quarter.

But after that, the Packers' offense finally got on a roll, posting a couple of long touchdown drives, and a final drive to finish off the final 4:06 of game clock.

The Cowboys seemed to pursue a ball control strategy similar to what the Bills did in their win over the Packers in week 15. The problem with this strategy is it requires a defense that can shut the Packers offense down for an entire game, and (as the Cowboys found out) blows up if you can't.

It should also be noted that the Dez Bryant catch reversal controversy obscured a rather unfortunate play call by the Cowboys. That play came on 4th and 2. The Cowboys elected to throw what has to be a pretty low percentage deep ball 30 yards down field. But why do that when they could've handed off to DeMarco Murray? Murray had been shredding the Packers' defense all game, and would've almost certainly resulted in a conversion and a fresh set of downs.

Colts @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

Just an ugly day for the Broncos' passing offense. One of the lowest completion rates (57%) and yards per attempt (4.58) since Manning went to Denver.

The Broncos' defense didn't have a good day either, giving up several long drives, and largely letting the Colts offense control the tempo of the game. The Broncos just didn't look anything like the team that won the AFC's second seed.

Added: It's now being reported that Peyton Manning was playing with a torn quad, which would explain a lot about how this game played out.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	3	-	1			5	-	3		62.5%
SRS	3	-	1			6	-	2		75%
Line	3	-	1			6	-	2		75%

NFL Divisional Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1046 (LW × 1.0268)	13-4	Won by 14 vs Panthers
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0656 (LW × 0.9942)	13-4	Won by 4 vs Ravens
3 (↑1)	Packers	1.0101 (LW × 1.0167)	13-4	Won by 5 vs Cowboys
4 (↑5)	Colts	0.9898 (LW × 1.0476)	13-5	Won by 11 @ Broncos
5 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9873 (LW × 1.0295)	13-5	Lost by 5 @ Packers
6 (↓1)	Bills	0.9813 (LW × 0.9981)	9-7	Bye
7 (↓4)	Broncos	0.9692 (LW × 0.9685)	12-5	Lost by 11 vs Colts
8 (↑2)	Ravens	0.9652 (LW × 1.0242)	11-7	Lost by 4 @ Patriots
9 (↓1)	Steelers	0.9628 (LW × 1.0133)	11-6	Bye
10 (↓3)	Chiefs	0.9552 (LW × 0.9994)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9379 (LW × 1.0200)	10-6	Bye
12 (-)	Lions	0.9121 (LW × 1.0098)	11-6	Bye
13 (↑1)	Texans	0.9111 (LW × 1.0204)	9-7	Bye
14 (↓1)	Bengals	0.9043 (LW × 1.0126)	10-6-1	Bye
15 (-)	Cardinals	0.8956 (LW × 1.0129)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Dolphins	0.8831 (LW × 1.0000)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑1)	Rams	0.8741 (LW × 1.0059)	6-10	Bye
18 (↑2)	Panthers	0.8702 (LW × 1.0252)	8-9-1	Lost by 14 @ Seahawks
19 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8689 (LW × 0.9962)	9-7	Bye
20 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8569 (LW × 1.0090)	7-9	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8462 (LW × 1.0006)	4-12	Bye
22 (↑1)	Falcons	0.8446 (LW × 1.0149)	6-10	Bye
23 (↓1)	49ers	0.8413 (LW × 1.0090)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Giants	0.8369 (LW × 1.0188)	6-10	Bye
25 (↑1)	Saints	0.8172 (LW × 1.0143)	7-9	Bye
26 (↑1)	Browns	0.8153 (LW × 1.0162)	7-9	Bye
27 (↓2)	Raiders	0.8079 (LW × 0.9961)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7731 (LW × 1.0104)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7650 (LW × 1.0197)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7476 (LW × 1.0134)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7422 (LW × 1.0183)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6863 (LW × 1.0186)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• Congratulations to the Seahawks, who become the first defending Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game the following season since the Patriots did it in 2005.

• If the Broncos had also won, it would've been the first time since 2004 that all four home teams had won in the Divisional round, and the first time since 1997 that both Super Bowl teams won a playoff game the following season. As it is, these will have to wait for another season.

• So a couple of things about that overturned catch at the end of the Cowboys-Packers game:

  1. I'm not a big fan of the going-to-the-ground rule, but

  2. By the going-to-the-ground rule, that was not a catch. If you watch the replay, Bryant bobbles the ball when he hits the ground (before rolling over into the endzone). It's a near-textbook example of a non-catch according to this rule.

• Nice to see the final four teams in the top four of the rankings. I think I'd probably rank them in that order, too.

NFL Divisional Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Panthers @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.2672	Seahawks δ=11.5	Seahawks -10½
Ravens @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1373	Patriots δ=5.7	Patriots -7
Colts @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.0592	Broncos δ=4.3	Broncos -7
Cowboys @ Packers	Packers* ρ=1.0360	Packers δ=3.0	Packers -6½

Comments:

• The Panthers played the Seahawks close in the regular season, but that was early on, and played in Charlotte. The Panthers are gonna have to play a lot better than they did last week, or this game is going to be over by halftime.

  I actually think the Seahawks are maybe not as good as their record indicates, and shouldn't be such a lock to repeat in the Super Bowl (I'll have more to say about that next week). But unless Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and half their defense can't play Saturday, I just don't see the Panthers coming away with the upset.

• The Ravens have only beat the Patriots three times, but two of those victories have come in the playoffs. If they're going to get a fourth win this weekend, I think the Ravens will have to play better defense than they did against the Steelers.

  One factor that may play into this is the status of Julian Edelman, who is currently listed as questionable probable for the game. If he can't play, or is limited, the Ravens will be able to focus a lot more on Rob Gronkowsky, the Pats' other big threat on offense.

• The Colts and Broncos will play a rematch of their week 1 meeting this week. As I've mentioned before, the Colts have not played well on the road against good teams, and unless the Broncos just faceplant this game, the Colts will have another Divisional round exit in the playoffs.

• Unless you've been living under a rock this week, you already know Cowboys @ Packers is the first time these teams have met in the playoffs at Lambeau since the Ice Bowl game. Besides all the other differences between then and now, Sunday's weather is expected to feature a relatively warm high of 20F.

  As for the game, well, I learned from the 2011 playoffs not to take anything for granted. But the Cowboys played a relatively sloppy game last week, with a slow start, some noticeably errant throws by Romo, and a lot of yards given up on defense.

  Assuming Aaron Rodgers stays healthy and plays the whole game, and the offense gets on a roll, the Cowboys will have a very tough time of it.

NFL Wild Card Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

What an awful performance by Ryan Lindley. I don't think I've seen a worse performance by a quarterback in the playoffs. Even Joe Webb a couple years ago had a better game.

The Panthers played like you'd expect a 7-9-1 team to play: some ugly turnovers, a lot of drives that ended without a score, and a general failure to put away a weak opponent until late in the game.

Ravens (SRS) @ Steelers (APR, Line)

I wrote in the game picks that the Ravens could make a run if their defense got on a roll. They certainly took the first step in this game, holding the Steelers to just three field goals and a touchdown, and forcing three turnovers at the end of the game.

Steelers put up a lot of yards on the Ravens' defense, but too many of their drives ended in field goals, punts, and turnovers. They were playing catch up on the score board for most of the game, and the Ravens were able to pull away in the second half.

Bengals @ Colts (APR, SRS, Line)

The least surprising of this week's games. Without their two biggest playmakers on offense (AJ Green and Jermain Gresham) the Bengals were in deep trouble when the game started. Perhaps the biggest surprise was that they kept the game close through halftime.

Lions @ Cowboys (APR, SRS, Line)

That was probably the ugliest job of officiating since the Fail Mary game. The Lions really got a bad deal there. But they also played a pretty poor second half, managing just one field goal from 6 possessions, and leaving the door open for a bad call to decide the game for them. (It should also be noted a DPI call would not have won the game for them, it just would've helped keep their drive going.)

The Cowboys, for their part, didn't look great either. They only managed to score 14 points through three quarters, Romo was sacked 6 times, and a lot of his passes looked poorly thrown and off target. The offense may get most of the attention, but the defense holding the Lions to just a field goal in the second half was a key factor in giving them the chance to win this game.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	2			2	-	2		50%
SRS	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%
Line	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%

NFL Wildcard Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.0757 (LW × 0.9876)	12-4	Bye
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0718 (LW × 1.0014)	12-4	Bye
3 (-)	Broncos	1.0007 (LW × 0.9926)	12-4	Bye
4 (-)	Packers	0.9935 (LW × 1.0047)	12-4	Bye
5 (-)	Bills	0.9831 (LW × 0.9988)	9-7	Bye
6 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.9590 (LW × 1.0119)	13-4	Won by 4 vs Lions
7 (-)	Chiefs	0.9558 (LW × 0.9868)	9-7	Bye
8 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9502 (LW × 0.9705)	11-6	Lost by 13 vs Ravens
9 (↑1)	Colts	0.9448 (LW × 1.0249)	12-5	Won by 16 vs Bengals
10 (↑3)	Ravens	0.9424 (LW × 1.0359)	11-6	Won by 13 @ Steelers
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9195 (LW × 1.0043)	10-6	Bye
12 (↑2)	Lions	0.9032 (LW × 0.9989)	11-6	Lost by 4 @ Cowboys
13 (↓1)	Bengals	0.8931 (LW × 0.9801)	10-6-1	Lost by 16 @ Colts
14 (↑1)	Texans	0.8929 (LW × 1.0077)	9-7	Bye
15 (↓6)	Cardinals	0.8843 (LW × 0.9566)	11-6	Lost by 11 @ Panthers
16 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.8831 (LW × 1.0034)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8723 (LW × 0.9973)	9-7	Bye
18 (↓2)	Rams	0.8690 (LW × 0.9872)	6-10	Bye
19 (↑1)	Vikings	0.8492 (LW × 1.0062)	7-9	Bye
20 (↑5)	Panthers	0.8489 (LW × 1.0406)	8-8-1	Won by 11 vs Cardinals
21 (↓2)	Jets	0.8456 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
22 (↓1)	49ers	0.8338 (LW × 0.9904)	8-8	Bye
23 (↓1)	Falcons	0.8322 (LW × 1.0042)	6-10	Bye
24 (↓1)	Giants	0.8215 (LW × 1.0024)	6-10	Bye
25 (↓1)	Raiders	0.8110 (LW × 0.9913)	3-13	Bye
26 (-)	Saints	0.8057 (LW × 1.0064)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Browns	0.8023 (LW × 1.0078)	7-9	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7651 (LW × 1.0048)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7503 (LW × 1.0086)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7377 (LW × 1.0059)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7289 (LW × 1.0029)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6738 (LW × 1.0059)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• And both the Bengals' and Lions' winless streak in the playoffs will extend another year. The Lions at least showed some signs of life in their game.

• Some shuffling around in the rankings, but the top 5 remain the same. And while the streak has been interrupted, the APR tradition of the lowest ranked playoff team winning a game in the playoffs continues as the Panthers advance.

• I'm not sure there's anybody in the league the Cardinals could beat with Ryan Lindley as their quarterback. Still, I suppose those 11 wins count for something. If Carson Palmer comes back okay, and stays healthy for the whole season, they should have a chance to do something next year.

• Meanwhile, one of the Cardinals' first orders of business should be to cut Ryan Lindley. I think he's at the "what you see is what you get" point in his career, which mean he's not obviously better than some random guy pulled out of the stands.

NFL Wild Card Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Cardinals @ Panthers	Cardinals ρ=1.1332	Cardinals* δ=5.0	Panthers -6
Ravens @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.0762	Ravens* δ=2.4	Steelers -3
Lions @ Cowboys	Cowboys* ρ=1.0480	Cowboys δ=3.3	Cowboys -7½
Bengals @ Colts	Colts* ρ=1.0116	Colts δ=3.7	Colts -3½

Comments:

• We could (theoretically) see the two longest active streaks without a playoff win end this week. The Bengals (1990) and Lions (1991) are the two active franchises that have gone the longest without a playoff win.

  By comparison, the next longest streak among teams in the playoffs belongs to the Panthers, who last won a playoff game in 2005.

• Ryan Lindley actually looked... well, just bad against the 49ers last week (as opposed to looking completely awful against the Seahawks). If he can avoid turnovers, the Cardinals will have a chance.

  On the other hand, the Panthers are riding a 4-game winning streak thanks largely to their defense, and if they keep that up, the Panthers will have their first playoff win in 9 years.

• The Ravens' offense has actually been pretty good this year, with Joe Flacco rather quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, throwing 27 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. If the Ravens' defense can get on a roll, they could actually make a run in the playoffs.

• On the other hand, the Ravens put up that ugly loss to the Texans just a couple weeks ago, gave up 34 points to the Chargers in late November and 43 points to the Steelers in early November. So if the offense or defense falters, they'll very likely be done in short order.

• I must've linked this before, but it bears repeating. The Lions haven't beat a team with a winning record on the road since 2010. Of course a lot of things have gone into that streak over the seasons. One of the Lions' big problems this year has been a lack of productions on offense. In four of their losses they haven't scored more than 14 points.

  They will almost certainly have to do better than that against the Cowboys, whose losses have mostly come when their opponents have scored at least 28 points.

• The Bengals-Colts game is a rematch of a game that was one of the Bengals' ugliest losses of the season, a 27-0 shutout in week 7. And while the Colts are another team that haven't done well on the road against good teams, they've been very good at home this year, losing only to the Eagles and Patriots.

  Especially with AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham hurt, I think the Bengals just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Colts, so unless the Colts just faceplant this game, the Bengals playoff drought is going to last another year.

NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) vs. Broncos (Line)

Like I said in the game pick, it was essential for Peyton Manning and the Broncos' offense to get a handle on the Seahawks' defense before this game got out of hand. As you know if you saw the game, that just didn't happen.

I think, even in the best case scenario for the Broncos, their defense was never gonna hold the Seahawks under 14, or probably even 21 points. I think that defense mostly did a reasonable job, holding the Seahawks to 13 points in the first half (the safety, and Manning's pick 6 cannot be laid to their charge).

After the mess of their first two drives (safety and interception), the Broncos did manage to get some drives going, they mostly ended up stalling, ending in a intercpetion, fumbles, or a turnover on downs.

Manning was only sacked once, but the Seahawks' defense kept him under constant pressure, which meant he had to throw a lot of short check down passes, largely eliminating a lot of the big play explosiveness that got the Broncos to the Super Bowl. Without that big play ability, they just couldn't sustain drives for the scores they needed.

Totals

Barely any upsets in the playoffs this year. Chargers @ Bengals was the only game APR (along with SRS and the Line) picked wrong.

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	1	-	0			10	-	1		90.9%
SRS	1	-	0			9	-	2		81.8%
Line	0	-	1			8	-	3		72.7%

That's not quite all for this season. I'm planning to do at least the season's biggest upsets post, and maybe a couple others as well. So you might wanna check in later this month. Thanks again for reading, and see you next August.

NFL Super Bowl Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1807 (LW × 1.0378)	16-3	Won by 35 @ Broncos
2 (-)	49ers	1.1352 (LW × 1.0114)	14-5	Bye
3 (↑1)	Cardinals	1.0648 (LW × 1.0057)	10-6	Bye
4 (↑1)	Saints	1.0341 (LW × 1.0114)	12-6	Bye
5 (↑1)	Panthers	1.0215 (LW × 1.0046)	12-5	Bye
6 (↓3)	Broncos	1.0183 (LW × 0.9528)	15-4	Lost by 35 vs Seahawks
7 (-)	Patriots	0.9973 (LW × 0.9866)	13-5	Bye
8 (-)	Chargers	0.9904 (LW × 0.9804)	10-8	Bye
9 (-)	Bengals	0.9724 (LW × 0.9926)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Rams	0.9697 (LW × 1.0088)	7-9	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9407 (LW × 1.0008)	10-7	Bye
12 (-)	Steelers	0.9254 (LW × 0.9953)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Colts	0.9066 (LW × 0.9904)	11-6	Bye
14 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.8932 (LW × 0.9949)	8-8	Bye
15 (↑1)	Giants	0.8850 (LW × 1.0001)	7-9	Bye
16 (↓2)	Chiefs	0.8835 (LW × 0.9821)	11-6	Bye
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8771 (LW × 1.0067)	4-12	Bye
18 (-)	Ravens	0.8638 (LW × 0.9958)	8-8	Bye
19 (↑1)	Vikings	0.8532 (LW × 1.0023)	5-10-1	Bye
20 (↓1)	Titans	0.8497 (LW × 0.9928)	7-8	Bye
21 (↑1)	Falcons	0.8454 (LW × 1.0067)	4-12	Bye
22 (↓1)	Bills	0.8441 (LW × 0.9965)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	Cowboys	0.8352 (LW × 0.9988)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Bears	0.8305 (LW × 1.0004)	8-8	Bye
25 (-)	Lions	0.8271 (LW × 0.9998)	7-9	Bye
26 (-)	Jets	0.8233 (LW × 0.9964)	8-8	Bye
27 (-)	Packers	0.8163 (LW × 1.0016)	8-8-1	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7883 (LW × 0.9934)	4-12	Bye
29 (↑1)	Browns	0.7429 (LW × 0.9943)	4-12	Bye
30 (↓1)	Raiders	0.7400 (LW × 0.9870)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Texans	0.7381 (LW × 0.9885)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Redskins	0.7373 (LW × 0.9965)	3-13	Bye

Comments:

• First Super Bowl Since Buccaneers-Raiders (XXXVII after the 2002 season) that wasn't within one score going into the 4th quarter.

• I really wasn't impressed with any of the AFC teams this year, but I thought that the Broncos were the best of the lot. Along with the fact that the Seahawks didn't seem to dominate the Saints or 49ers in those playoff games, I thought that gave the Broncos a real chance.

• Instead, the Seahawks played their best road game in a long while, and it looked like the Broncos were the ones that struggled away from their home stadium.

• I suppose the Broncos' loss will also trigger more talk abut Peyton Manning's lack of legacy or something. It's preposterous. Manning has been one of the most dominating quarterbacks over the last 15 years. If he's lacking in legacy because of playoff losses, what do you say about guys like Brett Favre (1-1 in the Super Bowl) and Dan Marino (0-1 in the Super Bowl)?

  In spite of the playoff losses, I don't see any basis to put into question Manning's legacy as one of the best quarterbacks ever.

NFL Super Bowl Game Pick

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Seahawks @ Broncos	Seahawks ρ=1.0645	Seahawks* δ=1.3	Broncos -2

Comments:

• The Broncos really haven't faced any strong defenses this year (possibly excepting the Chiefs, but the way they finished their season, I'm not sure how strong they really were). In any case, the Seahawks will easily be the best defense they've faced all season.

• The Broncos' defense has at least a couple ugly breakdowns this year. In week 5, the Broncos managed a win thanks to the fact that the Cowboys had a really bad defense. In Week 12, they saw a 24-point lead slowly slip away at the Patriots.

• But the line has some good reasons to favor the Broncos in this game. First of all, the Seahawks are just not the same team when they're playing away from their home stadium, and the Meadowlands is a long, long ways away from Seattle.

• And since their early December win over the Saints, the Seahawks haven't really looked that dominating. They suffered a couple losses (including their first home loss in two years), and both their playoff games came down to the last play of the game.

• However this game goes, I think it's going to be decided when the Broncos' offense and the Seahawks' defense are on the field. If the Broncos' offensive line can protect Manning, and he can figure out how to move the ball against that defense while the game is still close, it'll probably go the Broncos' way. If the Broncos' offense struggles for very long, I think the Seahawks' offense can score enough points pretty quickly to put this game away.

NFL Championship Week Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Patriots @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

The Patriots seemed to have a lot of plays available to them on offense (that overthrown pass to Edelman being the best example), but they couldn't take advantage, at least not as much as they needed to. I wonder how much that's Brady not being on the same page with his receivers, and how much it's Brady getting old.

The Broncos defense seemed like they gave up a lot of plays, but with the way their offense was scoring points (they scored every time they had the ball, except for their first and last drives), the Broncos' defense really didn't need to get a lot of stops, and they got as many as they needed.

49ers @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The good news for the 49ers is, they played their best game in Seattle of the Wilson/Kaepernick era, including establishing an early 10 point lead. But they were only able to add one more touchdown to that total, and meanwhile the Seahawks kept chipping away at their lead, and finally managed to pull ahead in the 4th quarter.

I wonder how much of this is Colin Kaepernick having trouble playing in high pressure situations. After their final touchdown, the 49ers offense produced a punt, a lost fumble, and two interceptions. That last interception seemed to me to be particularly bad. If Kaepernick had just thrown the ball away, the 49ers still would've had 2nd and 10 at the 18, with 0:22 left, and probably 3 more chances at a go ahead touchdown. Instead, he threw at probably the Seahawks' best DB, with disastrous results, and the game was over.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	0			9	-	1		90%
SRS	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%
Line	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%

NFL Championship Week Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1377 (LW × 1.0099)	15-3	Won by 6 vs 49ers
2 (-)	49ers	1.1224 (LW × 1.0049)	14-5	Lost by 6 @ Seahawks
3 (↑1)	Broncos	1.0688 (LW × 1.0159)	15-3	Won by 10 vs Patriots
4 (↓1)	Cardinals	1.0587 (LW × 1.0029)	10-6	Bye
5 (↑1)	Saints	1.0225 (LW × 1.0021)	12-6	Bye
6 (↑1)	Panthers	1.0169 (LW × 0.9997)	12-5	Bye
7 (↓2)	Patriots	1.0108 (LW × 0.9886)	13-5	Lost by 10 @ Broncos
8 (-)	Chargers	1.0102 (LW × 1.0049)	10-8	Bye
9 (-)	Bengals	0.9797 (LW × 0.9994)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Rams	0.9612 (LW × 1.0028)	7-9	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9399 (LW × 1.0008)	10-7	Bye
12 (-)	Steelers	0.9298 (LW × 0.9976)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Colts	0.9154 (LW × 1.0009)	11-6	Bye
14 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.8995 (LW × 1.0042)	11-6	Bye
15 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8978 (LW × 0.9973)	8-8	Bye
16 (-)	Giants	0.8849 (LW × 1.0021)	7-9	Bye
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8713 (LW × 1.0007)	4-12	Bye
18 (-)	Ravens	0.8675 (LW × 0.9975)	8-8	Bye
19 (-)	Titans	0.8559 (LW × 1.0036)	7-8	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8513 (LW × 1.0005)	5-10-1	Bye
21 (-)	Bills	0.8470 (LW × 0.9982)	6-10	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8399 (LW × 1.0011)	4-12	Bye
23 (-)	Cowboys	0.8362 (LW × 1.0010)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Bears	0.8301 (LW × 0.9997)	8-8	Bye
25 (↑1)	Lions	0.8272 (LW × 0.9995)	7-9	Bye
26 (↓1)	Jets	0.8263 (LW × 0.9981)	8-8	Bye
27 (-)	Packers	0.8150 (LW × 1.0002)	8-8-1	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7935 (LW × 1.0016)	4-12	Bye
29 (↑1)	Raiders	0.7497 (LW × 1.0032)	4-12	Bye
30 (↓1)	Browns	0.7472 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Texans	0.7467 (LW × 1.0019)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Redskins	0.7399 (LW × 1.0023)	3-13	Bye

Comments:

• If the 49ers had won, they would have been the first Super Bowl losers to return since the Bills did it in 93.

• This week marks three championship game appearances in a row for both the Patriots and 49ers. Both have gone 1-2. Both the Broncos and Seahawks fell a win short of advancing to the championship round last year.

• Between their last Super Bowl appearance and their win over the Chargers a week ago, the Broncos were 2-6 in the playoffs. The Seahawks have gone 3-3 in the playoffs since their last Super Bowl appearance.

• I was a little surprised the 49ers made such a game of it today, and had a chance to win at the end of the game. Maybe another sign (along with the their loss to the Cardinals last month) that the Seahawks' defense isn't quite as dominating as it used to be.

NFL Championship Week Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Patriots @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.0289	Broncos δ=4.7	Broncos -4½
49ers @ Seahawks	Seahawks* ρ=1.0085	Seahawks δ=3.0	Seahawks -3½

Comments:

• Can the Patriots get by the Broncos to give Tom Brady a chance at a fourth Super Bowl ring? The Broncos defense hasn't been amazing this year, including giving up 17 points late in last Sunday's game against the Chargers. It seems likely the Patriots will look for every opportunity to exploit that.

  On the other hand, the Patriots really don't have an impressive road record this season, with losses to the Bengals, Dolphins, and Jets. They also needed 4th quarter comebacks to beat the Texans and the Bills. It's always dangerous to underestimate Belichick and Brady, but unless the Broncos just pull a face plant, I think this is where the Patriots season finally ends.

• Two times the Russell Wilson-era Seahawks have faced the Colin Kaepernick-era 49ers in Seattle, and two times the Seahawks have come away with convincing wins. Is there any reason to think that's going to be different the third time?

  I think the 49ers defense is good enough to hold the Seahawks to a reasonably low number of points on offense. But looking back at their week 2 matchup, probably the most striking thing is the 49ers almost complete inability to move the ball on offense. They only had two drives longer than 28 yards. The 49ers are gonna need a lot more than that from their offense to come away with an upset this week.

NFL Divisional Round Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Things went largely as expected this week, so not too much to say about the games.

Saints @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The Saints' defense did surprisingly well in this game, holding the Seahawks to just 16 points until late in the 4th quarter. The problem was, the Saints' offense didn't get going until the 4th quarter, and by then it was just too late to make up the difference.

Colts @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

The Colts turned the ball over on their opening drive, and never seemed to quite recover their equillibrium. They did manage to keep the game within 7 points going into the 4th quarter, but too many turnovers and too much LeGarrette Blount was more than the Colts could handle.

49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Panthers

It didn't seem like the Panthers' defense did a terrible job in this game, but given the offense they have, they needed to do better. The Panthers were 0-4 (including this game) when their opponent scored more than 20 points.

Chargers @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

The Chargers' defense did an okay job slowing down the Broncos offense, holding them to just 17 points through 3 quarters. But their offense just couldn't get going at all. They seemed to find something late when Rivers started throwing a lot of deep balls, but by then it was too late, and once the Broncos' offense got the ball back, they were able to run out the clock for the win.

Totals

No upsets (and no split picks)!

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	4	-	0			7	-	1		83%
SRS	4	-	0			6	-	2		75%
Line	4	-	0			6	-	2		75%

NFL Divisional Round Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1265 (LW × 1.0090)	14-3	Won by 8 vs Saints
2 (-)	49ers	1.1170 (LW × 1.0210)	14-4	Won by 13 @ Panthers
3 (↑1)	Cardinals	1.0557 (LW × 1.0007)	10-6	Bye
4 (↑2)	Broncos	1.0520 (LW × 1.0167)	14-3	Won by 7 vs Chargers
5 (↑2)	Patriots	1.0225 (LW × 1.0152)	13-4	Won by 21 vs Colts
6 (↓1)	Saints	1.0203 (LW × 0.9859)	12-6	Lost by 8 @ Seahawks
7 (↓4)	Panthers	1.0172 (LW × 0.9632)	12-5	Lost by 13 vs 49ers
8 (-)	Chargers	1.0052 (LW × 1.0038)	10-8	Lost by 7 @ Broncos
9 (-)	Bengals	0.9803 (LW × 0.9982)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Rams	0.9586 (LW × 0.9980)	7-9	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9392 (LW × 0.9979)	10-7	Bye
12 (-)	Steelers	0.9320 (LW × 0.9998)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Colts	0.9146 (LW × 0.9832)	11-6	Lost by 21 @ Patriots
14 (-)	Dolphins	0.9003 (LW × 0.9960)	8-8	Bye
15 (-)	Chiefs	0.8958 (LW × 1.0001)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Giants	0.8830 (LW × 1.0010)	7-9	Bye
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8706 (LW × 0.9934)	4-12	Bye
18 (-)	Ravens	0.8697 (LW × 1.0000)	8-8	Bye
19 (-)	Titans	0.8528 (LW × 1.0014)	7-8	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8509 (LW × 0.9994)	5-10-1	Bye
21 (-)	Bills	0.8485 (LW × 0.9975)	6-10	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8389 (LW × 0.9937)	4-12	Bye
23 (-)	Cowboys	0.8353 (LW × 0.9986)	8-8	Bye
24 (↑1)	Bears	0.8303 (LW × 0.9989)	8-8	Bye
25 (↓1)	Jets	0.8279 (LW × 0.9939)	8-8	Bye
26 (-)	Lions	0.8276 (LW × 0.9986)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Packers	0.8149 (LW × 1.0006)	8-8-1	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7923 (LW × 0.9999)	4-12	Bye
29 (-)	Browns	0.7489 (LW × 1.0002)	4-12	Bye
30 (-)	Raiders	0.7474 (LW × 1.0014)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Texans	0.7453 (LW × 1.0008)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Redskins	0.7381 (LW × 1.0018)	3-13	Bye

Comments:

• All remaining teams are in the top 5, along with the staying-at-home Cardinals. It's really too bad the Cardinals couldn't make it into the playoffs. I feel like they really had a chance to make a run, even playing on the road. Certainly if you imagine some hypothetical scenario where they were awarded a playoff seed on the AFC side.

• I had two thoughts in rapid succession on the last play of the Saints-Seahawks game. First, how on earth did the Seahawks' defense let Marques Colston get that open right next to the sideline? And second, is Marques Colston a complete idiot?

  If Colston had just stepped out of bounds, Brees would at least have had a chance at a 40 yard pass to the endzone. Not the highest percentag play, but it's gotta be better than any sort of lateral play (even supposing Colston's pass had not been illegal).

• Peyton Manning avoids adding yet another one-and-done playoff run to his resume. He's actually had 4 years where he's won at least one playoff game, including a couple Super Bowl runs.

• While the Broncos and Patriots are ranked #4 and #5, there's a pretty good gap between their respective power indexes. That will be a matchup ρ of 1.0288, compared to a ρ of 1.0085 for the 49ers-Seahawks game.