Tuesday, December 30, 2014

NFL Wild Card Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Cardinals @
Panthers
Cardinals
ρ=1.1332
Cardinals*
δ=5.0
Panthers
-6
Ravens @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.0762
Ravens*
δ=2.4
Steelers
-3
Lions @
Cowboys
Cowboys*
ρ=1.0480
Cowboys
δ=3.3
Cowboys
-7½
Bengals @
Colts
Colts*
ρ=1.0116
Colts
δ=3.7
Colts
-3½

Comments:

  • We could (theoretically) see the two longest active streaks without a playoff win end this week. The Bengals (1990) and Lions (1991) are the two active franchises that have gone the longest without a playoff win.

    By comparison, the next longest streak among teams in the playoffs belongs to the Panthers, who last won a playoff game in 2005.

  • Ryan Lindley actually looked... well, just bad against the 49ers last week (as opposed to looking completely awful against the Seahawks). If he can avoid turnovers, the Cardinals will have a chance.

    On the other hand, the Panthers are riding a 4-game winning streak thanks largely to their defense, and if they keep that up, the Panthers will have their first playoff win in 9 years.

  • The Ravens' offense has actually been pretty good this year, with Joe Flacco rather quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, throwing 27 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. If the Ravens' defense can get on a roll, they could actually make a run in the playoffs.

  • On the other hand, the Ravens put up that ugly loss to the Texans just a couple weeks ago, gave up 34 points to the Chargers in late November and 43 points to the Steelers in early November. So if the offense or defense falters, they'll very likely be done in short order.

  • I must've linked this before, but it bears repeating. The Lions haven't beat a team with a winning record on the road since 2010. Of course a lot of things have gone into that streak over the seasons. One of the Lions' big problems this year has been a lack of productions on offense. In four of their losses they haven't scored more than 14 points.

    They will almost certainly have to do better than that against the Cowboys, whose losses have mostly come when their opponents have scored at least 28 points.

  • The Bengals-Colts game is a rematch of a game that was one of the Bengals' ugliest losses of the season, a 27-0 shutout in week 7. And while the Colts are another team that haven't done well on the road against good teams, they've been very good at home this year, losing only to the Eagles and Patriots.

    Especially with AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham hurt, I think the Bengals just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Colts, so unless the Colts just faceplant this game, the Bengals playoff drought is going to last another year.