Wednesday, October 27, 2010

NFL: Week 8 Game Picks

Week 8! Wow, how did that happen already?

All line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Steelers @
Saints
Steelers
ρ=1.3033
Steelers*
δ=14.5
Steelers
-1
Bills @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.2678
Chiefs
δ=15.0
Chiefs
-7½
Panthers @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.2115
Rams
δ=8.1
Rams
-3
Titans @
Chargers
Titans
ρ=1.2081
Titans*
δ=10.6
Chargers
-3½
Packers @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.1671
Jets
δ=4.4
Jets
-6
Vikings @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1447
Patriots
δ=5.6
Patriots
-5
Texans @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1249
Colts
δ=5.0
Colts
-5½
Jaguars @
Cowboys
Cowboys*
ρ=1.0831
Cowboys
δ=10.9
Cowboys
-6½
Dolphins @
Bengals
Dolphins
ρ=1.0591
Dolphins*
δ=2.3
Bengals
-1½
Broncos @
49ers
Broncos
ρ=1.0544
Broncos*
δ=1.9
Broncos
-1
Redskins @
Lions
Redskins*
ρ=1.0488
Lions
δ=1.6
Lions
-2½
Seahawks @
Raiders
Seahawks*
ρ=1.0177
Raiders
δ=2.0
Raiders
-1½
Buccaneers @
Cardinals
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0049
Buccaneers*
δ=3.8
Cardinals
-3

Bye: Falcons, Ravens, Bears, Browns, Giants, Eagles

What the '*'s Mean:

I've added some new information to the game picks. All picks listed above are generated as usual—rankings are computed for each team using all games played, and the team with the better rank is picked to win.

However, I've also extended the code that computes APR and SRS to compute Home/Visitor splits on their respective power rankings. Picks are also made using the "Visitor" power of the road team and the "Home" power of the home team. The '*' listed above indicate instances where the Home/Visitor pick method disagrees with the straight-power method.

By the Home/Visitor method (and using the week 7 data), the Seahawks, Rams, and Colts are the worst road teams of the league. The Texans, Cowboys, and Titans are the worst home teams.

This is still in the experimental stages, and while I'm hoping it will allow APR (and SRS) to eventually make more accurate picks, this is still very much a beta-level feature.

Comments:

  • Steelers -1? Ben Roethlisberger did look a little rusty last week, but unless the Saints have a big turn-around this week, the Steelers should win easily.

  • Chargers -3½?! Their run defense has looked OK so far, but they haven't faced Chris Johnson yet, either. And, as observed above, the Titans have done quite well on the road this year.

  • Bengals are favored? They did beat the Ravens in week 2, but that's the only spark of life they've showed all season, and that's getting to be a while ago now...

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

NFL: Week 7 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 7 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Saints (+11)
ESPN is finally starting to move the Saints down, but APR really penalized them their disaster of a game at home against the formerly 1-win Browns.
On the bubble:
Buccaneers (+8), Cardinals (+7)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Nobody outside the -8 spot threshold
On the bubble:
Cowboys, Chargers, Lions, Browns (-7)

Way more agreement than there's ever been this early in the season. I suppose that's a good thing...

NFL: Week 7 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-4)

Right

Bills @ Ravens
Jaguars @ Chiefs
Bengals @ Falcons
Eagles @ Titans
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Vikings @ Packers
Steelers @ Dolphins

Wrong

49ers @ Panthers
Alex Smith left the game early in the second half, and backup David Carr was not effective in replacement. Other than that, there's not much to say about this game, except it was two bad teams playing, and (barring a tie) one of them had to win.
Raiders @ Broncos
If anything went right for the Broncos in this game, it's not apparent from the recaps. When the Raiders had the ball on offense, the Broncos couldn't stop them. When the Broncos had the ball on offense, they were utterly ineffective. It was so bad, the Broncos were down 38-0 before they got their second first down of the game.
Browns @ Saints
You know how I keep saying the Saints are not a top-10 team? Yeah, they're not. And when Drew Brees starts forcing passes trying to make things happen, they're not even a top-20 team.
Redskins @ Bears
Somehow (at least when they win) the Redskins seem to get the very worst performance their opponent can muster, and this game was the best example yet. The Bears offense had an awful game. In their first six drives, they had just one first down. Six of their final seven drives ended in turnovers. Jay Cutler was sacked 4 times, intercepted 4 times, and lost a fumble. The Redskins' offense didn't have much of a game either, but it was enough for the win.

Split (APR: 2-1 SRS: 2-1 Line: 1-2)

Rams (APR, SRS) @ Buccaneers (Line)
For the 6th time in 7 games, the Rams' defense held their opponent to 18 points or less. The problem was, for the 5th time in 7 games, the Rams offense couldn't score more than 17 points.
Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Chargers(Line)
From APR's point of view, the Chargers are a team with just two home wins over very weak teams, and that's what they looked like for most of this game. A late rally nearly made the Patriots defensive collapse (and a failed late 4th-and-1 try) the story of this game, but the Chargers couldn't get it done.
Giants (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
The Giants lost the ball 5 times. If Romo had been able to finish the game, the Cowboys should have won easily. As it was, all those turnovers allowed the Cowboys to close to within 6 points before time finally ran out.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 9-544-4450.0%
SRS 9-544-4450.0%
Line8-661-4358.7%

Monday, October 25, 2010

NFL: Week 7 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Steelers1.1009
(LW × 1.0046)
5-1Won by 1
@ Dolphins
2 (-)Jets1.0823
(LW × 0.9918)
5-1Bye
3 (↑1)Titans1.0560
(LW × 1.0224)
5-2Won by 18
vs Eagles
4 (↑1)Patriots1.0339
(LW × 1.0050)
5-1Won by 3
@ Chargers
5 (↓2)Ravens1.0259
(LW × 0.9583)
5-2Won by 3
vs Bills
6 (-)Colts1.0146
(LW × 1.0015)
4-2Bye
7 (↑2)Chiefs0.9737
(LW × 1.0288)
4-2Won by 22
vs Jaguars
8 (↓1)Falcons0.9616
(LW × 1.0002)
5-2Won by 7
vs Bengals
9 (↑1)Giants0.9570
(LW × 1.0253)
5-2Won by 6
@ Cowboys
10 (↓2)Eagles0.9288
(LW × 0.9767)
4-3Lost by 18
@ Titans
11 (-)Packers0.9274
(LW × 1.0138)
4-3Won by 4
vs Vikings
12 (↑3)Dolphins0.9061
(LW × 1.0183)
3-3Lost by 1
vs Steelers
13 (↓1)Vikings0.9031
(LW × 0.9916)
2-4Lost by 4
@ Packers
14 (↑2)Texans0.9020
(LW × 1.0243)
4-2Bye
15 (↑4)Redskins0.8973
(LW × 1.0293)
4-3Won by 3
@ Bears
16 (↓3)Bears0.8855
(LW × 0.9859)
4-3Lost by 3
vs Redskins
17 (↑5)Chargers0.8742
(LW × 1.0124)
2-5Lost by 3
vs Patriots
18 (↑2)Seahawks0.8739
(LW × 1.0062)
4-2Won by 12
vs Cardinals
19 (↓1)Cowboys0.8700
(LW × 0.9980)
1-5Lost by 6
vs Giants
20 (↑1)Rams0.8678
(LW × 1.0029)
3-4Lost by 1
@ Buccaneers
21 (↑5)Browns0.8659
(LW × 1.0487)
2-5Won by 13
@ Saints
22 (↑6)Raiders0.8588
(LW × 1.0668)
3-4Won by 45
@ Broncos
23 (-)Lions0.8556
(LW × 0.9992)
1-5Bye
24 (-)Bengals0.8555
(LW × 1.0080)
2-4Lost by 7
@ Falcons
25 (↓8)Saints0.8447
(LW × 0.9610)
4-3Lost by 13
vs Browns
26 (↑3)Buccaneers0.8306
(LW × 1.0325)
4-2Won by 1
vs Rams
27 (↓13)Broncos0.8272
(LW × 0.9275)
2-5Lost by 45
vs Raiders
28 (↓3)Cardinals0.8266
(LW × 0.9858)
3-3Lost by 12
@ Seahawks
29 (↓2)Jaguars0.8033
(LW × 0.9817)
3-4Lost by 22
@ Chiefs
30 (-)49ers0.7845
(LW × 0.9861)
1-6Lost by 3
@ Panthers
31 (-)Bills0.7680
(LW × 1.0540)
0-6Lost by 3
@ Ravens
32 (-)Panthers0.7163
(LW × 1.0345)
1-5Won by 3
vs 49ers

Comments:

  • The AFC continues to dominate the top of the rankings, and rightly so. I have to wonder how many NFC teams could beat even the Chiefs right now, especially at Arrowhead stadium.

  • The Vikings easily the highest-ranked 4-loss team. But 3 of their losses are by 5 points or less (and they were within 1 of the Jets until a late pick-6 sealed that loss).

  • Wow, how bad are the Giants? They won their game, but 3 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles does not bode well for them down the stretch.

  • Are the Buccaneers really the best team in the NFC? APR sure doesn't think so. The teams they've beaten are a combined 8-18 right now, and none have a winning record. Their 25-point loss to the Saints makes them the only team (so far) to lose to the Saints by more than 5 points. They are better than last year, but they've had a pretty soft schedule to open up the season.

  • Big movers: Broncos (↓13), Saints (↓8), Raiders (↑6).

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

NFL: Week 7 Game Picks

All line values from yahoo.com, except Chiefs @ Jaguars, which is from footballlocks.com. Line values are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Bills @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.4692
Ravens
δ=19.8
Ravens
-13
Steelers @
Dolphins
Steelers
ρ=1.2316
Steelers
δ=15.5
Steelers
-3
Patriots @
Chargers
Patriots
ρ=1.1914
Patriots
δ=7.6
Chargers
-3
Jaguars @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.1567
Chiefs
δ=9.5
Chiefs
-10
49ers @
Panthers
49ers
ρ=1.1490
49ers
δ=5.0
49ers
-3
Bengals @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1327
Falcons
δ=5.8
Falcons
-3
Raiders @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.1079
Broncos
δ=9.2
Broncos
-7
Eagles @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.0862
Titans
δ=6.9
Titans
-3
Rams @
Buccaneers
Rams
ρ=1.0756
Rams
δ=3.2
Buccaneers
-2½
Giants @
Cowboys
Giants
ρ=1.0707
Giants
δ=3.2
Cowboys
-3
Browns @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0644
Saints
δ=1.3
Saints
-13½
Cardinals @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.0359
Seahawks
δ=10.6
Seahawks
-6
Redskins @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0303
Bears
δ=1.4
Bears
-3
Vikings @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.0043
Packers
δ=2.1
Packers
-3

Bye: Lions, Texans, Colts, Jets

Comments:

  • 11 unanimous games this week. APR and SRS pick the same way in all games.

  • This week is probably the Panthers' best chance to avoid an 0-16 season. It's also the 49ers best chance to get a road win this year.

  • If the Saints really have turned things around, this is a game they have to win. The Browns have been a tough opponent this season, and Colt McCoy is bound to look better against the Saints defense.

  • Chiefs -10 seems like a lot for a team that really hasn't proven itself yet. On the other hand, the Jaguars are scrambling for a healthy quarterback, and they've given up at least 26 points in every game since week 1.

  • Possible upset: Redskins @ Bears. If the Seahawks could mostly keep the Bears away from the endzone, it's not a stretch to think the Redskins defense could do a good job of shutting down the Bears too. On the other hand, they will really have to shut the Bears down—the Redskins have only scored more than 17 points twice this season.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

NFL: Week 6 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 6 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Saints (+11)
The Saints finally get a solid win in the regular season. APR moves them up 9 spots, but it's going to take one win over a weak team before APR will put them near the top 10.
Buccaneers (+10)
APR drops the Buccaneers 17 spots from last week, which may be a bit harsh. But the teams they beat are a combined 3-13. Yeah, they're still 3-2, but if they make it to 8 wins this year, it will be thanks mostly to a very soft schedule.
On the bubble:
Cardinals, Texans (+7)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Nobody outside the -8 spot threshold
On the bubble:
Cowboys, Broncos (-8)

NFL: Week 6 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-3)

Right

Jets @ Broncos
Colts @ Redskins
Titans @ Jaguars
Browns @ Steelers

Wrong

Seahawks @ Bears
Six more sacks for Cutler. No surprise the Bears only had 3 scoring drives. The Seahawks didn't exactly light it up (they punted 10 times) but two sustained drives for touchdowns, and a short field for a third, were enough to put them past the Bears.
Dolphins @ Packers
The effect of injuries continue to mount for the Packers. Offense can't sustain drives to score points, defense can't get off the field to get the ball back to the offense.
Chargers @ Rams
There's plenty of blame to go around for the Chargers. Special teams gave up a long kick return and a blocked field goal try (turned into a couple of field goals by the Rams). The defense gave up a couple long touchdown drives. And that was more than the offense (missing Antonio Gates for most of the game) was able to overcome.

Split (APR: 2-5 SRS: 0-7 Line: 7-0)

Every split pick goes for the home team.

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
Once they got going (and perhaps not coincidentally, after DeSean Jackson was knocked out of the game), the Falcons played the Eagles pretty evenly. Unfortunately, the Falcons were down 21-0 before they got their first score, and they didn't have enough to get out of that hole.
Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)
Just a defensive collapse on the part of the Chiefs. They were ahead 21-7 halfway through the 3rd quarter. After that, the Texans outscored them 28-10. It was, for the most part, sustained drive after sustained drive that the Chiefs just couldn't seem to stop.
Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Patriots (Line)
What happened to the Ravens' defense? Starting late in the 3rd quarter, they allowed the Patriots 3 sustained drives which resulted in 13 points scored. That's really not good for a team whose offense is mostly not real explosive.
Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)
The Saints finally get their high-scoring offense on track. For the first time (in the regular season) since week 12 last year, the Saints win a game by more than 5 points.
Raiders (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
Jason Campbell had a really bad day. 8/21 for 83 yards and 2 interceptions bad. For all that, the Raiders still had the lead at half time, and were within one score until half way through the 4th quarter. That's probably bad news for the 49ers if they need that weak an opponent to get a win.
Lions (SRS) @ Giants (APR, Line)
The Lions would be a lot more dangerous if they could protect their quarterback. Their 2nd-string QB Shaun Hill left this game in the second quarter with a broken arm, so their 3rd-string QB Drew Stranton had to finish the game.
Cowboys (SRS) @ Vikings (APR, Line)
The Vikings offense fell short of 200 yards gained. Their longest drive was just 49 yards. Favre completed just 14 passes. But thanks to all the Cowboys' mistakes (turnovers, failed return coverage, and penalties) that was all the Vikings needed to squeak out a win.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 6- 835-3947.3%
SRS 4-1035-3947.3%
Line11- 353-3758.9%

Monday, October 18, 2010

NFL: Week 6 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Steelers1.0958
(LW × 0.9474)
4-1Won by 18
vs Browns
2 (↑1)Jets1.0913
(LW × 1.0210)
5-1Won by 4
@ Broncos
3 (↓1)Ravens1.0706
(LW × 0.9584)
4-2Lost by 3
@ Patriots
4 (↑1)Titans1.0329
(LW × 1.0182)
4-2Won by 27
@ Jaguars
5 (↑2)Patriots1.0287
(LW × 1.0448)
4-1Won by 3
vs Ravens
6 (-)Colts1.0131
(LW × 1.0062)
4-2Won by 3
@ Redskins
7 (↓3)Falcons0.9614
(LW × 0.9410)
4-2Lost by 14
@ Eagles
8 (↑5)Eagles0.9509
(LW × 1.0614)
4-2Won by 14
vs Falcons
9 (↓1)Chiefs0.9464
(LW × 0.9710)
3-2Lost by 4
@ Texans
10 (↑1)Giants0.9334
(LW × 1.0152)
4-2Won by 8
vs Lions
11 (↓2)Packers0.9147
(LW × 0.9673)
3-3Lost by 3
vs Dolphins
12 (↑5)Vikings0.9108
(LW × 1.0438)
2-3Won by 3
vs Cowboys
13 (↓3)Bears0.8981
(LW × 0.9509)
4-2Lost by 3
vs Seahawks
14 (↑1)Broncos0.8918
(LW × 1.0189)
2-4Lost by 4
vs Jets
15 (↑12)Dolphins0.8898
(LW × 1.0807)
3-2Won by 3
@ Packers
16 (↑6)Texans0.8806
(LW × 1.0296)
4-2Won by 4
vs Chiefs
17 (↑9)Saints0.8789
(LW × 1.0593)
4-2Won by 25
@ Buccaneers
18 (↑1)Cowboys0.8717
(LW × 1.0065)
1-4Lost by 3
@ Vikings
19 (↑2)Redskins0.8717
(LW × 1.0162)
3-3Lost by 3
vs Colts
20 (↑9)Seahawks0.8685
(LW × 1.0743)
3-2Won by 3
@ Bears
21 (↑2)Rams0.8653
(LW × 1.0274)
3-3Won by 3
vs Chargers
22 (↓4)Chargers0.8635
(LW × 0.9941)
2-4Lost by 3
@ Rams
23 (↓3)Lions0.8563
(LW × 0.9961)
1-5Lost by 8
@ Giants
24 (↓10)Bengals0.8487
(LW × 0.9586)
2-3Bye
25 (↓1)Cardinals0.8385
(LW × 0.9998)
3-2Bye
26 (↓10)Browns0.8258
(LW × 0.9445)
1-5Lost by 18
@ Steelers
27 (↓2)Jaguars0.8182
(LW × 0.9803)
3-3Lost by 27
vs Titans
28 (-)Raiders0.8050
(LW × 0.9810)
2-4Lost by 8
@ 49ers
29 (↓17)Buccaneers0.8044
(LW × 0.8783)
3-2Lost by 25
vs Saints
30 (-)49ers0.7956
(LW × 1.0618)
1-5Won by 8
vs Raiders
31 (-)Bills0.7287
(LW × 1.0164)
0-5Bye
32 (-)Panthers0.6924
(LW × 0.9715)
0-5Bye
  • 7 AFC teams in the top 10. Of course, 5 in the bottom 10 too.

  • Just a little more offensive production, and the Packers would be 6-0. Of course, with just a little less, they would be 2-4. The closeness of their losses are holding them up, for now. But with only one win against a team over 0.500, that may be short-lived unless they start actually winning again.

  • A couple big losses are a big reason for long drops by the Buccaneers and Browns. The Browns also had every team they played before this week lose (except for the Bengals, who were on their bye).

  • Which leaves the Chiefs as the lone member of the "Cinderella trifecta" still clinging to life in the rankings. They actually have a pretty soft schedule the rest of the way, and (if they can stop giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter, could make it to 9 or 10 wins.

  • The 49ers finally get a win. But a good team, even a mediocre team would've won that game by 3 or 4 scores, given the awful performance of the Raiders. I think it's going to be a stretch for them to get more than 4 wins this year.

  • Big movers: Buccaneers (↓17), Dolphins (↑12), Browns, Bengals (↓10), Saints, Seahawks (↑9).

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

NFL: Week 6 Game Picks

Update: still no line for Dolphins @ Packers on yahoo, but footballlocks has Packers -3½, so I'm going with that.

GameAPRSRSLine
Browns @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.3230
Steelers
δ=15.1
Steelers
-14
Jets @
Broncos
Jets
ρ=1.2212
Jets
δ=9.4
Jets
-3
Titans @
Jaguars
Titans
ρ=1.2155
Titans
δ=16.5
Titans
-3
Colts @
Redskins
Colts
ρ=1.1736
Colts
δ=7.7
Colts
-3
Seahawks @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.1683
Bears
δ=7.8
Bears
-6
Dolphins @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.1485
Packers
δ=10.7
Packers
Falcons @
Eagles
Falcons
ρ=1.1404
Falcons
δ=3.8
Eagles
-3
Chiefs @
Texans
Chiefs
ρ=1.1396
Chiefs
δ=7.6
Texans
-4½
Ravens @
Patriots
Ravens
ρ=1.1346
Ravens
δ=2.6
Patriots
-2½
Saints @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.1039
Buccaneers
δ=5.9
Saints
-4½
Raiders @
49ers
Raiders
ρ=1.0951
Raiders
δ=3.8
49ers
-6½
Lions @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.0695
Lions
δ=0.7
Giants
-10
Chargers @
Rams
Chargers
ρ=1.0313
Chargers
δ=8.5
Chargers
-8½
Cowboys @
Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.0074
Cowboys
δ=1.3
Vikings
-1½

Bye: Cardinals, Bills, Panthers, Bengals

Comments:

  • Only 6 unanimous picks this week (7, if the line comes out in favor of the Packers).

  • No line yet on Dolphins @ Packers, presumably because there hasn't been any word on whether Rodgers or Flynn will start at QB.

  • Either the Cowboys or Vikings will fall to 1-4 this week, and will be a long way away from contending for even the bottom wildcard spot. The other will still be at 2-3, but with a win and only one game under 0.500, at least a chance to claw back into the playoff race.

  • Can the Saints beat the Buccaneers? Neither team is the same as they were last season. And (as detailed in earlier posts), the Saints have looked really weak so far this season.

  • If the 49ers lose to the Raiders, does Singletary last another week? They'll be 0-6 which as we saw last year, is not good news.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

NFL: Week 5 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 5 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Saints (+17)
ESPN drops the Saints 7 spots on their loss to the Cardinals, but so does APR. Last week, I said the Saints didn't belong in the top 10, and that goes even more this week. ESPN still has them at #9.

Dolphins (+10)
The two teams the Dolphins managed to beat are now a combined 1-8. APR drops them 5 spots. ESPN drops them as well, but only 4. The Dolphins have a tough schedule coming up, and (unless they turn things around) could easily fall short of 8 wins this season.
On the bubble:
Jaguars (+7)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Browns (-13)
Closer this week because APR dropped them 6 spots. They may not be worth #16 (where APR has them), but they're surely better than #29 (where ESPN has them). They've been in every game they played, and were within 3 of the highly-ranked Falcons until late in the 4th quarter.
On the bubble:
Bengals, Broncos, Lions (-8), Titans (-7)

NFL: Week 5 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-5)

Right

Broncos @ Ravens
Bears @ Panthers
Falcons @ Browns
Jaguars @ Bills
Vikings @ Jets

Wrong

Giants @ Texans
At this point, the Texans' week 1 win over the Colts has to be regarded as a fluke. While the Giants (at least for the last two weeks) have really come around on defense. That defense recorded three sacks, an interception, and a 2-for-11 3rd down conversion rate. And that makes it a lot easier for the offense to put up enough points for a win.
Packers @ Redskins
You can take your pick of things that went wrong for the Packers in this game: injuries, turnovers, and bad play calling all had their part. One thing that really stands out is the Packers' inability to score points, especially in the second half. They've scored a combined total of 17 second-half points in their last 3 games. And you have to go back to 2004 to find a game the Packers allowed 16 or fewer points, and still lost.
Chargers @ Raiders
The Chargers continue to struggle on the road. Two blocked punts and 3 lost fumbles kept the Raiders in this game, and ultimately gave them the win.
Saints @ Cardinals
Both teams made a lot of mistakes in this game. The difference was, somehow the Cardinals' mistakes never seemed to hurt them. An example: towards the end of the first half, Drew Brees threw a pass from his own endzone, which was tipped and intercepted. On the following drive, Max Hall decides to try to run it in, and gets hit hard enough to lose the ball and his helmet. An alert Cardinals lineman picks up the fumbled ball and carries it into the endzone; touchdown Cardinals.
Buccaneers @ Bengals
Carson Palmer threw three disasterous interceptions. The second one is particularly inexplicable. It came with just 2:28 left in game, and the Bengals up by 7. On 3rd and long, instead of playing to run the clock (and trust their defense which had given up just one touchdown to that point), Carson Palmer threw deep. The Buccaneers intercepted, and scored the tying touchdown on a short field.

Split (APR: 2-2 SRS: 2-2 Line: 2-2)

Rams (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)
Apparently I was right in thinking the Lions were under-rated. And the Rams are not (yet) a team likely to come back when things start to go wrong.
Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
It's not a huge surprise that the Chiefs 3-0 start turns out to be something of a mirage. What is surprising is that the Colts couldn't put this game away until late in the 4th quarter.
Eagles (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
The reason the 49ers lost this game is simple: a miserable o-line. Alex Smith was constantly running for his life. A few times, unsuccessfully and for disasterous results.
Titans (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
Vince Young threw for 2 touchdowns, and Chris Johnson ran for 2 more. Meanwhile, the Cowboys o-line troubles return: Romo was sacked six times. Add in three interceptions, and the Cowboys just couldn't keep up.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 7-729-3148.3%
SRS 7-731-2951.7%
Line7-742-3455.2%

Monday, October 11, 2010

NFL: Week 5 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Steelers1.1566
(LW × 1.0272)
3-1Bye
2 (↓1)Ravens1.1171
(LW × 0.9680)
4-1Won by 14
vs Broncos
3 (-)Jets1.0688
(LW × 0.9532)
4-1Won by 9
vs Vikings
4 (↑2)Falcons1.0217
(LW × 1.0297)
4-1Won by 10
@ Browns
5 (↑6)Titans1.0145
(LW × 1.0910)
3-2Won by 8
@ Cowboys
6 (↑3)Colts1.0068
(LW × 1.0702)
3-2Won by 10
vs Chiefs
7 (↓2)Patriots0.9846
(LW × 0.9527)
3-1Bye
8 (↓4)Chiefs0.9747
(LW × 0.9110)
3-1Lost by 10
@ Colts
9 (↓1)Packers0.9456
(LW × 0.9989)
3-2Lost by 3
@ Redskins
10 (↑7)Bears0.9445
(LW × 1.0666)
4-1Won by 17
@ Panthers
11 (↑15)Giants0.9194
(LW × 1.1317)
3-2Won by 24
@ Texans
12 (↑3)Buccaneers0.9159
(LW × 1.0241)
3-1Won by 3
@ Bengals
13 (↑5)Eagles0.8960
(LW × 1.0341)
3-2Won by 3
@ 49ers
14 (↓7)Bengals0.8854
(LW × 0.9294)
2-3Lost by 3
vs Buccaneers
15 (↑6)Broncos0.8752
(LW × 1.0319)
2-3Lost by 14
@ Ravens
16 (↓6)Browns0.8743
(LW × 0.9306)
1-4Lost by 10
vs Falcons
17 (↑6)Vikings0.8726
(LW × 1.0310)
1-3Lost by 9
@ Jets
18 (↓6)Chargers0.8685
(LW × 0.9372)
2-3Lost by 8
@ Raiders
19 (↓5)Cowboys0.8661
(LW × 0.9625)
1-3Lost by 8
vs Titans
20 (↑8)Lions0.8597
(LW × 1.1018)
1-4Won by 38
vs Rams
21 (↓1)Redskins0.8579
(LW × 1.0094)
3-2Won by 3
vs Packers
22 (↓9)Texans0.8553
(LW × 0.9379)
3-2Lost by 24
vs Giants
23 (↓7)Rams0.8422
(LW × 0.9444)
2-3Lost by 38
@ Lions
24 (↑1)Cardinals0.8386
(LW × 1.0304)
3-2Won by 10
vs Saints
25 (↑2)Jaguars0.8347
(LW × 1.0460)
3-2Won by 10
@ Bills
26 (↓7)Saints0.8297
(LW × 0.9685)
3-2Lost by 10
@ Cardinals
27 (↓5)Dolphins0.8233
(LW × 0.9717)
2-2Bye
28 (↑1)Raiders0.8206
(LW × 1.0569)
2-3Won by 8
vs Chargers
29 (↓5)Seahawks0.8085
(LW × 0.9715)
2-2Bye
30 (-)49ers0.7493
(LW × 0.9758)
0-5Lost by 3
vs Eagles
31 (-)Bills0.7169
(LW × 0.9420)
0-5Lost by 10
vs Jaguars
32 (-)Panthers0.7128
(LW × 0.9817)
0-5Lost by 17
vs Bears

Comments:

  • Every team the Steelers have played so far won this week, and they take a well-deserved turn at #1.

  • Packers only drop one spot thanks in part to wins by Eagles, Lions, and Bears.

  • Conversely, the Redskins are hurt by losses of Cowboys, Texans, and Rams. They do gain a little power, but not enough to stay ahead of the Lions.

  • The Buccaneers have already matched their win total from last year. #12 may be a bit high for them, but they're clearly improved from last year.

  • The Chiefs take their first loss, but they're another team that's clearly better than last year. And until the Chargers show some ability to win road games, the Chiefs have to be counted as contenders for the AFC West.

  • Meanwhile, the Browns drop back down after another (relatively) close loss. If they had an actual quarterback...

  • Big movers: Giants (+15), Texans (-9), Lions (+8).

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

NFL: Week 5 Game Picks

Line values taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Broncos @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.3607
Ravens
δ=6.6
Ravens
-7
Vikings @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.3249
Jets
δ=14.0
Jets
-4
Bears @
Panthers
Bears
ρ=1.2196
Bears
δ=11.0
Bears
-2
Chargers @
Raiders
Chargers
ρ=1.1936
Chargers
δ=17.2
Chargers
-6½
Rams @
Lions
Rams
ρ=1.1429
Rams
δ=5.8
Lions
-3
Chiefs @
Colts
Chiefs
ρ=1.1373
Chiefs
δ=5.8
Colts
-8
Eagles @
49ers
Eagles
ρ=1.1283
Eagles
δ=11.9
49ers
-3½
Giants @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1225
Texans
δ=4.3
Texans
-3
Packers @
Redskins
Packers
ρ=1.1138
Packers
δ=5.1
Packers
-2½
Buccaneers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0652
Bengals
δ=3.4
Bengals
-7
Falcons @
Browns
Falcons
ρ=1.0562
Falcons
δ=2.5
Falcons
-3
Saints @
Cardinals
Saints
ρ=1.0526
Saints
δ=10.6
Saints
-7
Jaguars @
Bills
Jaguars
ρ=1.0485
Jaguars
δ=5.9
Jaguars
-1
Titans @
Cowboys
Titans
ρ=1.0333
Titans
δ=8.5
Cowboys
-6½

Bye: Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks

Comments:

  • 10 Unanimous picks again this week, and full agreement between APR and SRS.

  • Not a lot of confidence for Jaguars @ Bills. Only 2 of yahoo's 6 line sources are giving a line on this game.

  • Possible upset #1: Chargers @ Raiders (the Chargers are 0-2 on the road so far this year, including a loss to a very weak Seahawks team).

  • Possible upset #2: Chiefs @ Colts. The Colts just don't seem to be the same invincible-in-the-regular-season team we've grown used to for most of the last 10 years. If they're careless about underestimating the improved Chiefs, they could be in for a shock.

  • The Saints should be able to take care of the Cardinals. But can they win by 7 points? Their biggest margin of victory so far is 5 points, and that includes games against the 49ers and Panthers.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

NFL: Week 4 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Saints (+17)
I've become pretty confident that a bunch of close wins over bad teams is not a good sign. And the Saints have 3 close wins over teams that are a combined 1-10. Maybe they can pull it out, but right now there's no way they belong anywhere in the top 10.
Dolphins (+9)
Same deal with the Dolphins: a 5-point win over a very bad Bills team does not impress. And then ESPN drops them just two spots on an embarrassing 27-point beat down in their home stadium?
On the bubble:
Vikings (+8)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Browns (-17)
As I mentioned in the Week 4 Power Rankings, it's at least possible the Browns could be a good team. At the very least, ESPN's rank of #27 is too low—there's clearly more than 6 teams that are worse than them right now.
Bengals (-11)
The Bengals have their problems, and #7 (where APR has them) is probably too high, but they do have two wins, one over a very good Ravens squad.
On the bubble:
Rams, Titans, Buccaneers (-8)

NFL: Week 4 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-4)

Right

49ers @ Falcons
Panthers @ Saints
Lions @ Packers
Jets @ Bills
Patriots @ Dolphins

Wrong

Broncos @ Titans
Chris Johnson (53 yards on 19 attempts) did not have a good day. Add a lost fumble and a muffed punt, and the Titans become very beatable.

Ravens @ Steelers
It shouldn't be a surprise that the Steelers lost a game playing their third string quarterback. What is a surprise is that they were in it right to the end in spite of Charlie Batch's very underwhelming stats (12/21 for 141 yards, 1 interception).
Redskins @ Eagles
The first game the Eagles can't score at least 20 points is, not coincidentally, the first game Michael Vick only plays one quarter. The Eagles are finding out one of the biggest drawbacks of having Vick as a starting QB: his style of play puts him at high risk for a major injury.
Colts @ Jaguars
The Jaguars' defense gives up another 28 points. The good news, at least for this game, is that the offense is able to keep up, thanks to Maurice Jones-Drew (105 yards and a touchdown) and David Garrard (163 yards passing, 44 rushing, and 3 more touchdowns).

Split (APR: 1-4 SRS: 3-2 Line: 3-2)

Cardinals (APR) @ Chargers (SRS, Line)
Derek Anderson has another terrible outing: 7/14 for 64 yards and 2 interceptions. Ken Whisenhunt finally had enough when Anderson's second interception went all the way back for a TD. Rookie QB Max Hall finished the game, and had one more completion, 18 more yards, and two fewer interceptions in relief.
Texans (SRS, Line) @ Raiders (APR)
I could easily make the case here that APR had the Raiders overrated, but the fact is, neither of these teams looked good going into this game. But this week, the Texans combined for nearly 250 yards rushing, and that makes it a lot easier to win.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
Somehow, the Giants did what the Lions, Cowboys, and Packers could not: absolutely shut down the Bears' offense. The Bears had just 110 net yards, and took a mind-boggling (literally, for Cutler) 10 sacks. With a defensive performance like that, the Giants' middling offensive performance was more than enough for the win.
Seahawks (SRS, Line) @ Rams (APR)
The Seahawks just couldn't move the ball against the Rams. In the second half, they had just two drives longer than 9 (nine!) yards (one of which was a garbage-time drive at the end of the game). The Rams' defense is clearly much improved from last year.
Bengals (APR, Line) @ Browns (SRS)
The good news for the Bengals is their offense seems to be waking up: Carson Palmer passed for 371 yards in this game, the highest single-game total this year. The bad news is their defense somehow couldn't stop the Browns: 286 yards combined rushing and passing helped them put up 23 points, (including a final 10 play, 4:41 drive to grind out the clock).

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 6-822-2447.8%
SRS 8-624-2252.2%
Line8-635-2756.5%

Monday, October 4, 2010

NFL: Week 4 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑5)Ravens1.1540
(LW × 1.1007)
3-1Won by 3
@ Steelers
2 (↓1)Steelers1.1260
(LW × 0.8727)
3-1Lost by 3
vs Ravens
3 (↑1)Jets1.1213
(LW × 1.0088)
3-1Won by 24
@ Bills
4 (↑6)Chiefs1.0699
(LW × 1.1057)
3-0Bye
5 (↑3)Patriots1.0335
(LW × 1.0456)
3-1Won by 27
@ Dolphins
6 (↓4)Falcons0.9922
(LW × 0.8330)
3-1Won by 2
vs 49ers
7 (↑10)Bengals0.9526
(LW × 1.0858)
2-2Lost by 3
@ Browns
8 (↓5)Packers0.9466
(LW × 0.8493)
3-1Won by 2
vs Lions
9 (↑7)Colts0.9408
(LW × 1.0609)
2-2Lost by 3
@ Jaguars
10 (↑11)Browns0.9394
(LW × 1.1197)
1-3Won by 3
vs Bengals
11 (↓4)Titans0.9299
(LW × 0.8873)
2-2Lost by 6
vs Broncos
12 (↑14)Chargers0.9267
(LW × 1.1884)
2-2Won by 31
vs Cardinals
13 (↑10)Texans0.9119
(LW × 1.1005)
3-1Won by 7
@ Raiders
14 (↑1)Cowboys0.8999
(LW × 0.9990)
1-2Bye
15 (↑4)Buccaneers0.8943
(LW × 1.0254)
2-1Bye
16 (↑2)Rams0.8918
(LW × 1.0183)
2-2Won by 17
vs Seahawks
17 (↓12)Bears0.8855
(LW × 0.8279)
3-1Lost by 14
@ Giants
18 (↓5)Eagles0.8664
(LW × 0.9337)
2-2Lost by 5
vs Redskins
19 (↓8)Saints0.8567
(LW × 0.9033)
3-1Won by 2
vs Panthers
20 (↑7)Redskins0.8499
(LW × 1.1047)
2-2Won by 5
@ Eagles
21 (↑8)Broncos0.8482
(LW × 1.2112)
2-2Won by 6
@ Titans
22 (↓13)Dolphins0.8473
(LW × 0.8710)
2-2Lost by 27
vs Patriots
23 (↓9)Vikings0.8463
(LW × 0.9164)
1-2Bye
24 (↑1)Seahawks0.8322
(LW × 1.0538)
2-2Lost by 17
@ Rams
25 (↓13)Cardinals0.8139
(LW × 0.8624)
2-2Lost by 31
@ Chargers
26 (↑2)Giants0.8124
(LW × 1.1567)
2-2Won by 14
vs Bears
27 (↑3)Jaguars0.7980
(LW × 1.1587)
2-2Won by 3
vs Colts
28 (↓6)Lions0.7803
(LW × 0.9305)
0-4Lost by 2
@ Packers
29 (↓9)Raiders0.7764
(LW × 0.8951)
1-3Lost by 7
vs Texans
30 (↑1)49ers0.7679
(LW × 1.1182)
0-4Lost by 2
@ Falcons
31 (↓7)Bills0.7610
(LW × 0.9254)
0-4Lost by 24
vs Jets
32 (-)Panthers0.7261
(LW × 1.1244)
0-4Lost by 2
@ Saints

Comments:

  • And so, at 3-0, the last unbeaten team is... the Kansas City Chiefs?! (Though it will be a much bigger shock if they make it to 4-0.)

  • The good news for the Steelers: they're 3-1, and unless Roethlisberger plays really, really awful, there will be no quarterback controversy in Pittsburgh.

  • Here come the Browns again. APR really wants to like them. Maybe—if the loss to the Bucs was a fluke, if the Chiefs really are good—maybe the Browns are good? Maybe. The Browns have the Falcons, Steelers, and Saints coming up, so it shouldn't be a long wait to find out.

  • And the Rams in the top half of the rankings! And the real surprise? They've got to be the favorite to win their division right now. They've been in every game they've played so far, which is more than the Cardinals, Seahawks, and 49ers can say.

  • I think APR has the Lions underrated right now. Like the Rams, they've been in every game, and against better teams than the Rams have faced. Next week's Rams @ Lions game could actually be a very interesting match-up.

  • Big movers: Chargers (+14), Cardinals, Dolpins (-13), Bears (-12), Browns (+11).