Tuesday, December 30, 2014

NFL Wild Card Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Cardinals @
Panthers
Cardinals
ρ=1.1332
Cardinals*
δ=5.0
Panthers
-6
Ravens @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.0762
Ravens*
δ=2.4
Steelers
-3
Lions @
Cowboys
Cowboys*
ρ=1.0480
Cowboys
δ=3.3
Cowboys
-7½
Bengals @
Colts
Colts*
ρ=1.0116
Colts
δ=3.7
Colts
-3½

Comments:

  • We could (theoretically) see the two longest active streaks without a playoff win end this week. The Bengals (1990) and Lions (1991) are the two active franchises that have gone the longest without a playoff win.

    By comparison, the next longest streak among teams in the playoffs belongs to the Panthers, who last won a playoff game in 2005.

  • Ryan Lindley actually looked... well, just bad against the 49ers last week (as opposed to looking completely awful against the Seahawks). If he can avoid turnovers, the Cardinals will have a chance.

    On the other hand, the Panthers are riding a 4-game winning streak thanks largely to their defense, and if they keep that up, the Panthers will have their first playoff win in 9 years.

  • The Ravens' offense has actually been pretty good this year, with Joe Flacco rather quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, throwing 27 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. If the Ravens' defense can get on a roll, they could actually make a run in the playoffs.

  • On the other hand, the Ravens put up that ugly loss to the Texans just a couple weeks ago, gave up 34 points to the Chargers in late November and 43 points to the Steelers in early November. So if the offense or defense falters, they'll very likely be done in short order.

  • I must've linked this before, but it bears repeating. The Lions haven't beat a team with a winning record on the road since 2010. Of course a lot of things have gone into that streak over the seasons. One of the Lions' big problems this year has been a lack of productions on offense. In four of their losses they haven't scored more than 14 points.

    They will almost certainly have to do better than that against the Cowboys, whose losses have mostly come when their opponents have scored at least 28 points.

  • The Bengals-Colts game is a rematch of a game that was one of the Bengals' ugliest losses of the season, a 27-0 shutout in week 7. And while the Colts are another team that haven't done well on the road against good teams, they've been very good at home this year, losing only to the Eagles and Patriots.

    Especially with AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham hurt, I think the Bengals just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Colts, so unless the Colts just faceplant this game, the Bengals playoff drought is going to last another year.

Monday, December 29, 2014

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (11-3)

Right:

Colts @ Titans
Cowboys @ Washington
Saints @ Buccaneers
Raiders @ Broncos
Jaguars @ Texans
Rams @ Seahawks
Browns @ Ravens
Bears @ Vikings
Chargers @ Chiefs
Lions @ Packers
Bengals @ Steelers

Wrong:

Bills @ Patriots
The Pats mostly rested their starters in this game (although for reasons unexplained Tom Brady played in the first half). The Bills clinch their first winning season since 2004, when Drew Bledsoe played his last season for them.
Jets @ Dolphins
Geno Smith had the best game of his career, throwing three touchdown passes and catching the Dolphins on a very bad day defensively. The Dolphins were 1-7 when giving up more than 20 points this season.
Panthers @ Falcons
The Falcons just couldn't get anything going on offense in this game. Their longest drive until well into garbage time was 38 yards. That, along with a couple interceptions (both returned for touchdowns) dug a hole the Falcons had no way out of.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
The Cardinals surprisingly made a game of this, but Lindley's 3 interceptions was just more than the Cardinals were able to overcome.
Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
Actually a relatively close game (and equal on turnovers). But Eli Manning threw incomplete too many times, the Giants only converted on 1 of 3 trips in the red zone, had 106 penalty yards, and in the end, it all added up to a loss for Big Blue.

Totals

A nice round of picks to end the regular season on.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 12- 4 159-80-166.5%
SRS 12- 4 157-82-165.6%
Line 12- 4 166-72-169.8%

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Seahawks1.0892
(LW × 1.0214)
12-4Won by 14
vs Rams
2 (↓1)Patriots1.0703
(LW × 0.9572)
12-4Lost by 8
vs Bills
3 (-)Broncos1.0081
(LW × 0.9978)
12-4Won by 33
vs Raiders
4 (-)Packers0.9889
(LW × 1.0090)
12-4Won by 10
vs Lions
5 (↑4)Bills0.9843
(LW × 1.0490)
9-7Won by 8
@ Patriots
6 (-)Steelers0.9790
(LW × 1.0178)
11-5Won by 10
vs Bengals
7 (↓2)Chiefs0.9686
(LW × 1.0044)
9-7Won by 12
vs Chargers
8 (-)Cowboys0.9476
(LW × 1.0086)
12-4Won by 27
@ Washington
9 (↓2)Cardinals0.9244
(LW × 0.9718)
11-5Lost by 3
@ 49ers
10 (↑1)Colts0.9218
(LW × 0.9904)
11-5Won by 17
@ Titans
11 (↑4)Eagles0.9155
(LW × 1.0129)
10-6Won by 8
@ Giants
12 (↑2)Bengals0.9112
(LW × 0.9996)
10-5-1Lost by 10
@ Steelers
13 (-)Ravens0.9097
(LW × 0.9925)
10-6Won by 10
vs Browns
14 (↓4)Lions0.9042
(LW × 0.9712)
11-5Lost by 10
@ Packers
15 (↑1)Texans0.8860
(LW × 0.9903)
9-7Won by 6
vs Jaguars
16 (↑1)Rams0.8802
(LW × 0.9852)
6-10Lost by 14
@ Seahawks
17 (↓5)Dolphins0.8801
(LW × 0.9531)
8-8Lost by 13
vs Jets
18 (-)Chargers0.8746
(LW × 0.9825)
9-7Lost by 12
@ Chiefs
19 (↑5)Jets0.8475
(LW × 1.0428)
4-12Won by 13
@ Dolphins
20 (-)Vikings0.8440
(LW × 1.0015)
7-9Won by 4
vs Bears
21 (-)49ers0.8419
(LW × 1.0065)
8-8Won by 3
vs Cardinals
22 (↓3)Falcons0.8287
(LW × 0.9648)
6-10Lost by 31
vs Panthers
23 (↓1)Giants0.8195
(LW × 0.9848)
6-10Lost by 8
vs Eagles
24 (↓1)Raiders0.8182
(LW × 0.9995)
3-13Lost by 33
@ Broncos
25 (↑2)Panthers0.8157
(LW × 1.0466)
7-8-1Won by 31
@ Falcons
26 (↓1)Saints0.8005
(LW × 0.9993)
7-9Won by 3
@ Buccaneers
27 (↓1)Browns0.7961
(LW × 0.9940)
7-9Lost by 10
@ Ravens
28 (-)Bears0.7615
(LW × 0.9876)
5-11Lost by 4
@ Vikings
29 (↑2)Jaguars0.7439
(LW × 1.0092)
3-13Lost by 6
@ Texans
30 (-)Buccaneers0.7334
(LW × 0.9869)
2-14Lost by 3
vs Saints
31 (↓2)Washington0.7268
(LW × 0.9720)
4-12Lost by 27
vs Cowboys
32 (-)Titans0.6698
(LW × 0.9896)
2-14Lost by 17
vs Colts

Comments:

  • The top seeds for both conferences occupy the top four spots in the rankings.

  • Bills are the highest ranked team out of the playoffs, thanks in part to a 4-spot bump on beating the nothing-to-play-for Patriots.

  • On the one hand, I feel like #6 is to high for a Steelers team with ugly losses to the Bucs, Jets, and Saints. On the other hand, pretty much everyone below them has at least a couple ugly losses on their record, so I can't really make the case that they should be ranked lower either.

    Maybe the real observation is that after the top four teams, there's a pretty steep drop off in quality.

  • Unsurprisingly, the 7-8-1 Panthers are the lowest-ranked playoff team. Of the rest, the Lions are lowest ranked at #14, perhaps thanks some close wins over the Bucs and Vikings, followed with a road loss to the Packers.

  • Could the Panthers actually get on a run in the playoffs? After a streak of games where they were 1-8-1 from mid September to late November, they've run off a series of 4 wins. Not exaclty against the class of the league, but still better than anyone else in the NFC South can claim.

  • The Seahawks clinch the #1 seed in the NFC for the second season in a row, the first time it's done back-to-back since the Eagles did it three times, 2002-2004. They certainly seem to be in a good position to be the first defending Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game the following season since the Patriots did it in 2005.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

NFL Week 17 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Colts @
Titans
Colts
ρ=1.3751
Colts*
δ=16.3
Colts
-7
Cowboys @
Washington
Cowboys
ρ=1.2567
Cowboys*
δ=12.5
Cowboys
-6½
Raiders @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.2343
Broncos
δ=16.8
Broncos
-16
Jaguars @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.2139
Texans
δ=12.9
Texans
-9½
Rams @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1936
Seahawks
δ=9.7
Seahawks
-13
Bills @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1917
Patriots
δ=7.8
Patriots
-3½
Browns @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.1445
Ravens
δ=8.4
Ravens
-8½
Cardinals @
49ers
Cardinals
ρ=1.1372
Cardinals*
δ=3.8
49ers
-6
Jets @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1361
Dolphins
δ=10.2
Dolphins
-5½
Panthers @
Falcons
Falcons*
ρ=1.1021
Falcons
δ=3.1
Falcons
-3½
Bears @
Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.0931
Vikings
δ=5.3
Vikings
-6½
Eagles @
Giants
Eagles
ρ=1.0861
Eagles*
δ=5.1
Giants
-3
Chargers @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.0832
Chiefs
δ=2.7
Chiefs
-2½
Saints @
Buccaneers
Saints
ρ=1.0780
Saints*
δ=7.2
Saints
-4
Bengals @
Steelers
Steelers*
ρ=1.0552
Steelers
δ=0.3
Steelers
-3
Lions @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.0525
Packers
δ=5.7
Packers
-7½

Comments:

  • A surprising amount of agreement for week 17. But most teams have something to play for, only the Patriots and Colts have clinched their respective seeds. Barring some unlikely scenarios, the Cowboys will have the 3 seed in the NFC, and may choose to rest their starters in anticipation of playing on Wild Card weekend.

  • The Lions' center Dominic Raiola has been suspended for a game, so barring a last-minute stay won't play on Sunday. That's bad news for the Lions, especially if the Packers' pass rush can continue where they left off last week.

  • The Cardinals will reportedly start Logan Thomas as quarterback which... well, it can't be as bad as Ryan Lindley, right? Thomas didn't look like much in relief of Drew Stanton back in week 5, but the 49ers are not as good as the Broncos, and this time Thomas will have a week of practice time to get ready.

  • I'm trying to decide if the Line is right to pick the Giants this week. The Eagles really fell apart last week against an opponent they should've beaten with ease, now they're facing another opponent they really should be able to beat. I think it's probably gonna go like last week: whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game.

  • If the Panthers are going to have a chance this week, their defense is gonna have to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson. The Falcons should win easily if this game is a battle of who can score the most points on the others bad defense.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-6)

Right:

Patriots @ Jets
Packers @ Buccaneers
Lions @ Bears
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Titans @ Jaguars
Vikings @ Dolphins

Wrong:

Falcons @ Saints
Somehow, the Saints just couldn't move the ball against what has been a pretty bad Falcons defense. The Saints had three drives longer than 31 yards, two of which ended with a lost fumble.
Giants @ Rams
Odell Beckham is an amazing player, and when the Giants' don't turn the ball over, they can still be a dangerous team. This is the first time since the final week of the 2012 season that the Giants' haven't turned the ball over.
Bills @ Raiders
Trap game? Let down? Whatever you call it, a week after holding the Packers to just 13 points, the Bills defense gave up 26 points to the Raiders who have scored more than that just once this season. Meanwhile the Bills could only rush for a season-low 13 yards, and Kyle Orton is just not the kind of quarterback that can win without support from his defense and running game, even against the likes of the Raiders.
Eagles @ Washington
I'm not sure there's anything to say here besides what I noted in the power rankings, that the Eagles have mostly lost when they don't score at least 30 points. Counting this game, Washington has only made it to 27 points four times this season.
Ravens @ Texans
The Texans defense came to play in this game, holding the Ravens to 33 yards rushing, intercepting Joe Flacco 3 times, and holding him under 200 yards passing on 50(!) attempts. When the Texans' defense plays like that, Case Keenum is all they need for a quarterback.
Broncos @ Bengals
Besides Peyton Manning's struggles, the Broncos defense gave up 207 yards rushing (mostly to Jeremy Hill) and 206 kick and punt return yards. Andy Dalton didn't look like much in this game, but with that kind of support, he didn't need to.

Split Picks: (APR 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
Either way this game went, you could blame turnovers and breakdowns on defense. As much as anything, the 49ers' season-long inability to score in the second half opened the door for the Chargers to come back and win this game.
Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
The Steelers' defense had perhaps their best game of the season, holding the Chiefs to just 12 points. The Chiefs, for their part, persued an odd strategy of settling for field goals in spite of the fact they were playing from behind for most of the game. As I've noted before, the Chiefs don't have a quick strike defense, so especially when they're playing behind, they really need to get touchdowns to have a chance.
Browns (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
Johnny Manziel looked every bit the green rookie in this game. When Brian Hoyer came in in relief, the Browns were down a touchdown. He was better than Manziel, but not by nearly enough, especially with only 84 rushing yards in support (and 19 of them coming from Hoyer himself).
Colts (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
If there's anything that went right for the Colts in this game, I didn't see it. Their first have drives result in a turnover on downs, three punts, and a red zone interception. Meanwhile, the Cowboys scored touchdowns on their first four possessions, and the game was pretty much out of reach by halftime.

Totals

A real clunker of a week, especially for the algorithms.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 7- 9 147-76-165.9%
SRS 7- 9 145-78-165.0%
Line 9- 7 154-68-169.4%

Monday, December 22, 2014

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.1182
(LW × 0.9758)
12-3Won by 1
@ Jets
2 (↑1)Seahawks1.0664
(LW × 1.0366)
11-4Won by 29
@ Cardinals
3 (↓1)Broncos1.0103
(LW × 0.9447)
11-4Lost by 9
@ Bengals
4 (↑2)Packers0.9800
(LW × 1.0051)
11-4Won by 17
@ Buccaneers
5 (↓1)Chiefs0.9643
(LW × 0.9603)
8-7Lost by 8
@ Steelers
6 (↑7)Steelers0.9620
(LW × 1.0389)
10-5Won by 8
vs Chiefs
7 (↓2)Cardinals0.9512
(LW × 0.9590)
11-4Lost by 29
vs Seahawks
8 (↑7)Cowboys0.9396
(LW × 1.0354)
11-4Won by 35
vs Colts
9 (↓2)Bills0.9383
(LW × 0.9752)
8-7Lost by 2
@ Raiders
10 (-)Lions0.9311
(LW × 0.9872)
11-4Won by 6
@ Bears
11 (↓3)Colts0.9307
(LW × 0.9813)
10-5Lost by 35
@ Cowboys
12 (↓3)Dolphins0.9234
(LW × 0.9782)
8-7Won by 2
vs Vikings
13 (↓1)Ravens0.9166
(LW × 0.9821)
9-6Lost by 12
@ Texans
14 (↑3)Bengals0.9116
(LW × 1.0443)
10-4-1Won by 9
vs Broncos
15 (↓1)Eagles0.9038
(LW × 0.9827)
9-6Lost by 3
@ Washington
16 (↑2)Texans0.8947
(LW × 1.0344)
8-7Won by 12
vs Ravens
17 (↓6)Rams0.8934
(LW × 0.9539)
6-9Lost by 9
vs Giants
18 (↓2)Chargers0.8902
(LW × 0.9819)
9-6Won by 3
@ 49ers
19 (↑3)Falcons0.8590
(LW × 1.0538)
6-9Won by 16
@ Saints
20 (↑1)Vikings0.8428
(LW × 1.0143)
6-9Lost by 2
@ Dolphins
21 (↓2)49ers0.8365
(LW × 0.9766)
7-8Lost by 3
vs Chargers
22 (↑4)Giants0.8322
(LW × 1.0550)
6-9Won by 9
@ Rams
23 (-)Raiders0.8185
(LW × 1.0073)
3-12Won by 2
vs Bills
24 (-)Jets0.8127
(LW × 1.0152)
3-12Lost by 1
vs Patriots
25 (↓5)Saints0.8011
(LW × 0.9587)
6-9Lost by 16
vs Falcons
26 (↓1)Browns0.8009
(LW × 1.0026)
7-8Lost by 4
@ Panthers
27 (↑1)Panthers0.7794
(LW × 1.0105)
6-8-1Won by 4
vs Browns
28 (↓1)Bears0.7710
(LW × 0.9946)
5-10Lost by 6
vs Lions
29 (↑1)Washington0.7477
(LW × 1.0258)
4-11Won by 3
vs Eagles
30 (↓1)Buccaneers0.7431
(LW × 0.9974)
2-13Lost by 17
vs Packers
31 (-)Jaguars0.7371
(LW × 1.0256)
3-12Won by 8
vs Titans
32 (-)Titans0.6769
(LW × 1.0061)
2-13Lost by 8
@ Jaguars

Comments:

  • This season, the Eagles are 1-6 when they don't score at least 30 points. Which doesn't say a lot for their defense.

  • How good is the Packers defense? They had that ugly second half breakdown against the Falcons a couple weeks ago, but they also held the Buccaneers (yeah, I know, they're 2-13) to season lows on points scored, first downs, and yards from scrimmage. They also sacked Josh McCown 7 times, most all year.

  • Remember how I said in the game picks that the Colts were bad on the road against good teams? Yeah, that. The Colts had 1 rushing yard on Sunday. One.

  • That was a really ugly game for Peyton Manning Monday night. He hasn't had a 4 interception outing since 2010.

  • The Saints have lost 5 home games for the first time since 2007, Payton and Brees's second season with the team.

  • With the Bills' elimination from the playoffs this week, their streak of longest active playoff appearance drought will continue for at least another year. The Music City Miracle game remains the Bills' last playoff appearance.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

NFL Week 16 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Patriots @
Jets
Patriots
ρ=1.4314
Patriots*
δ=20.6
Patriots
-10
Packers @
Buccaneers
Packers
ρ=1.3085
Packers*
δ=18.4
Packers
-10
Eagles @
Washington
Eagles
ρ=1.2619
Eagles*
δ=13.4
Eagles
-7½
Broncos @
Bengals
Broncos
ρ=1.2250
Broncos*
δ=10.2
Broncos
-3
Lions @
Bears
Lions
ρ=1.2168
Lions*
δ=9.8
Lions
-7
Giants @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.1874
Rams
δ=2.9
Rams
-5
Bills @
Raiders
Bills
ρ=1.1841
Bills*
δ=14.0
Bills
-6
Vikings @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1360
Dolphins
δ=6.4
Dolphins
-6½
Chiefs @
Steelers
Chiefs*
ρ=1.0845
Chiefs*
δ=5.6
Steelers
-3
Ravens @
Texans
Ravens
ρ=1.0791
Ravens*
δ=4.6
Ravens
-5
Titans @
Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.0683
Jaguars
δ=0.5
Jaguars
-3
Chargers @
49ers
Chargers
ρ=1.0585
Chargers*
δ=4.5
49ers
-2
Colts @
Cowboys
Colts
ρ=1.0452
Colts*
δ=4.9
Cowboys
-2½
Seahawks @
Cardinals
Seahawks*
ρ=1.0372
Seahawks*
δ=3.7
Seahawks
-8
Browns @
Panthers
Browns
ρ=1.0356
Browns*
δ=2.0
Panthers
-2½
Falcons @
Saints
Saints*
ρ=1.0251
Saints
δ=1.0
Saints
-5½

Comments:

  • No line for Browns @ Panthers. Maybe waiting to see if Cam Newton will play? I'll update later on in the week. Update: done.

  • A lot of the games this week have playoff implications. Then there's Titans @ Jaguars which... has draft implications.

  • Seahawks @ Cardinals is for the NFC West, and probably the top seed in the NFC. The Cardinals are reduced to starting erstwhile 3rd string backup Ryan Lindley. If the Cardinals' defense can hold their opponent to 6 points again, they'll have a chance. But I think if the Seahawks get 14 points on the board, that could be game over for the Cards.

  • With the Texans reduced to starting either fourth year backup Thad Lewis or off-the-street pickup Case Keenum, I'm a little surprised the Ravens are only getting 5 points in this game. The Ravens have quietly put together one of the highest scoring offenses in the league this season, and this has the feel of a game where the Ravens may only need a couple touchdowns to secure a 5 point margin of victory.

  • I'm not really sure why the Line is taking the 49ers here. They're out of the playoffs, they're riddled with injuries, and coming off a string of bitter losses. Meanwhile, the Chargers are still alive for one of the AFC wildcard spots, and desperately need a win to stay in the race. I think unless the Chargers fall flat on their faces, this is a game they should win.

  • I'm tempted to say the Colts have a real chance for an upset at the Cowboys, except for that whole Colts usually lose big on the road against good opponents thing that seemed to start when Andrew Luck came to town. But DeMarco Murray will either be out or playing hurt, so the Cowboys won't be at their full strength, either.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (12-2)

Right:

Steelers @ Falcons
Bengals @ Browns
Broncos @ Chargers
Jets @ Titans
Jaguars @ Ravens
Raiders @ Chiefs
Dolphins @ Patriots
Texans @ Colts
Washington @ Giants
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Vikings @ Lions
49ers @ Seahawks

Wrong:

Cowboys @ Eagles
Some of the biggest flaws of the Eagles were on display in this game: they turn the ball over a lot. Their defense isn't very good against the pass. And when their offense isn't scoring, their fast paced style is more of a liability than an asset.
And while the Cowboys didn't play the most amazing game either, they only turned the ball over once, and were able to take advantage when the Eagles gave them short fields.
Packers @ Bills
What an ugly game for the Packers' offense. The Bills' defense deserves some credit, but this is the first time Rodgers has been held under a 44% completion rate since he took over from Favre.
The Packers' defense played well, and the running game was effective. But turnovers, too many incomplete passes, botched punt coverage, and a final fumble that resulted in a safety added up more than they were able to overcome. Perhaps the most surprising thing about this game is the Packers had a chance to win late, in spite of all the mistakes they made.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 2-0, Line 2-0)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)
Rumors of the demise of the Cardinals' defense are apparently greatly exaggerated. They absolutely shut down the Rams' offense (which, okay, is maybe not the biggest test in the world). But they only allowed the Rams' into the red zone twice, holding them to field goals each time.
And while the Cardinals' offense didn't light up the scoreboard either, they did manage to put the game out of reach of the Rams' struggling offense.
Saints (SRS, Line) @ Bears (APR)
Wow, the Bears seem like a broken team at this point. A defense that struggles to stop anybody and a desultory offense is a really bad combination. I wonder if they'll win another game this year?

Totals

Another very nice week of picks, and an unusual case of SRS gaining a spot on APR.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 13- 3 140-67-167.6%
SRS 14- 2 138-69-166.6%
Line 14- 2 146-61-170.4%

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.1459
(LW × 1.0187)
11-3Won by 28
vs Dolphins
2 (-)Broncos1.0694
(LW × 1.0108)
11-3Won by 12
@ Chargers
3 (-)Seahawks1.0287
(LW × 1.0118)
10-4Won by 10
vs 49ers
4 (↑1)Chiefs1.0042
(LW × 1.0057)
8-6Won by 18
vs Raiders
5 (↑1)Cardinals0.9918
(LW × 1.0128)
11-3Won by 6
@ Rams
6 (↓2)Packers0.9750
(LW × 0.9746)
10-4Lost by 8
@ Bills
7 (↑4)Bills0.9622
(LW × 1.0280)
8-6Won by 8
vs Packers
8 (↑4)Colts0.9485
(LW × 1.0136)
10-4Won by 7
vs Texans
9 (↓2)Dolphins0.9439
(LW × 0.9874)
7-7Lost by 28
@ Patriots
10 (↓1)Lions0.9432
(LW × 0.9924)
10-4Won by 2
vs Vikings
11 (↑2)Rams0.9366
(LW × 1.0027)
6-8Lost by 6
vs Cardinals
12 (↓2)Ravens0.9333
(LW × 0.9955)
9-5Won by 8
vs Jaguars
13 (↑2)Steelers0.9260
(LW × 1.0350)
9-5Won by 7
@ Falcons
14 (↓6)Eagles0.9198
(LW × 0.9675)
9-5Lost by 11
vs Cowboys
15 (↑1)Cowboys0.9075
(LW × 1.0206)
10-4Won by 11
@ Eagles
16 (↓2)Chargers0.9066
(LW × 0.9833)
8-6Lost by 12
vs Broncos
17 (↑2)Bengals0.8730
(LW × 1.0421)
9-4-1Won by 30
@ Browns
18 (↓1)Texans0.8649
(LW × 0.9993)
7-7Lost by 7
@ Colts
19 (↓1)49ers0.8565
(LW × 0.9950)
7-7Lost by 10
@ Seahawks
20 (↑5)Saints0.8356
(LW × 1.0329)
6-8Won by 16
@ Bears
21 (↓1)Vikings0.8309
(LW × 1.0077)
6-8Lost by 2
@ Lions
22 (-)Falcons0.8151
(LW × 0.9893)
5-9Lost by 7
vs Steelers
23 (-)Raiders0.8126
(LW × 0.9974)
2-12Lost by 18
@ Chiefs
24 (↑2)Jets0.8006
(LW × 1.0156)
3-11Won by 5
@ Titans
25 (↓4)Browns0.7988
(LW × 0.9691)
7-7Lost by 30
vs Bengals
26 (↑1)Giants0.7888
(LW × 1.0077)
5-9Won by 11
vs Washington
27 (↓3)Bears0.7752
(LW × 0.9554)
5-9Lost by 16
vs Saints
28 (-)Panthers0.7713
(LW × 1.0024)
5-8-1Won by 2
vs Buccaneers
29 (-)Buccaneers0.7451
(LW × 0.9951)
2-12Lost by 2
@ Panthers
30 (-)Washington0.7289
(LW × 0.9911)
3-11Lost by 11
@ Giants
31 (-)Jaguars0.7187
(LW × 1.0217)
2-12Lost by 8
@ Ravens
32 (-)Titans0.6728
(LW × 0.9976)
2-12Lost by 5
vs Jets

Comments:

  • The top teams seem to be pretty reasonable right now. Chiefs are maybe a little high, but I don't think I'd drop them very far, either.

  • Looking at the bottom 10, the Browns are the only team without at least 8½ losses, but the way they've been playing lately (1-4 in their last 5) they don't really seem that out of place.

  • The Eagles are 1-3 this season when they turn the ball over 4 times. Which is remarkable since 1) they actually won one of those games, and 2) they've had four 4-turnover games this season. The Raiders have three 4-turnover games, and they're the only other team in the league with more than two.

    The Eagles still have a chance to win the NFC East (and a better chance with Cowboys' RB DeMarco Murray hurt). But with the kind of turnovers they've been having on offense, they're certainly not set up to make a deep run if they do make it in.

  • Congratulations to the Cardinals, who have clinched a playoff spot, and thus avoid becoming the first team (at least since the 1970 merger) to go 9-1 and miss the playoffs (depends on how you measure who came closest, a number of teams made it to 7-1 and missed the playoffs, and the '93 Dolphins made it to 9-2 before losing out and missing the playoffs).

  • Presumably the Texans will rally around Ryan Fitzpatrick Ryan Mallet Ryan Fitzpatrick Tom Savage er... Case Keenum? They're really giving the Cardinals a run for the money as franchise with the most pathetic quarterback situation.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

NFL Week 15 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Jaguars @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.3327
Ravens
δ=18.1
Ravens
-14
Raiders @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.2255
Chiefs
δ=14.3
Chiefs
-10½
49ers @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1812
Seahawks
δ=9.1
Seahawks
-10
Dolphins @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1766
Patriots
δ=6.0
Patriots
-8
Jets @
Titans
Jets
ρ=1.1688
Jets*
δ=4.9
Jets
-1
Vikings @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.1527
Lions
δ=4.7
Lions
-8
Broncos @
Chargers
Broncos
ρ=1.1475
Broncos*
δ=6.9
Broncos
-4
Steelers @
Falcons
Steelers
ρ=1.0858
Steelers*
δ=3.4
Steelers
-3
Texans @
Colts
Colts*
ρ=1.0811
Colts
δ=5.5
Colts
-6½
Cowboys @
Eagles
Eagles*
ρ=1.0691
Eagles
δ=4.3
Eagles
-3
Packers @
Bills
Packers*
ρ=1.0688
Packers*
δ=4.2
Packers
-5
Washington @
Giants
Giants*
ρ=1.0644
Giants
δ=5.8
Giants
-6½
Cardinals @
Rams
Cardinals*
ρ=1.0484
Cardinals*
δ=3.4
Rams
-4½
Buccaneers @
Panthers
Panthers*
ρ=1.0276
Panthers
δ=5.1
Panthers
-5½
Bengals @
Browns
Bengals
ρ=1.0163
Bengals*
δ=0.1
Bengals
-1
Saints @
Bears
Bears*
ρ=1.0030
Saints*
δ=3.3
Saints
-3

Comments:

  • Given the situation with Cam Newton, I'm surprised at this point that there's a line for the Bucs-Panthers game. I guess bettors figure the Bucs are just that bad.

  • Cowboys @ Eagles will probably decide the NFC East, which theoretically makes for a good game. But if goes anything like the first half of this matchup, the game is gonna be over by halftime.

  • Random stat I just noticed: the AFC North leading Bengals are the only team in that division with a negative point differential (points scored - points allowed). In spite of the fact that all the teams (still) have winning records, the AFC North seems like one of the weakest divisions in the league.

    The Ravens seem like the best team in that division, and it seems like they've got an easy enough remaining schedule to win out. But then, I thought them beating the Chargers was an all but sure thing, too.

  • APR likes the Cardinals over the Rams, which seems like a mistake to me. Credit HC Jeff Fisher, the Rams have been playing really tough this season, and given the Cardinals anemic offense, the Rams could have a shot at their third shut out in a row.

  • APR likes the Bears over the Saints, which seems like a mistake too. I think the Bears defense is bad enough at this point that Drew Brees and the Saints offense will score enough points that it will be one of those games where the Bears are doomed the first time they have a drive that doesn't end in a touchdown.

    On the other hand, I thought the Saints were gonna make short work of the Panthers last week, so maybe I should just stop trying to guess what's gonna happen in the NFC South.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

NFL Week 14 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-4)

Right:

Cowboys @ Bears
Rams @ Washington
Texans @ Jaguars
Giants @ Titans
Colts @ Browns
Patriots @ Chargers
Buccaneers @ Lions
Jets @ Vikings
Bills @ Broncos
Facons @ Packers

Wrong:

Panthers @ Saints
This was the bad Saints playing in this game. On offense, their longest drive was just 34 yards until well into garbage time. On defense, they were mostly unable to stop a Panthers' offense that hadn't scored more than 21 points in a game since facing the Bengals two months ago. The Saints have some talented players, but when they have an off game, they can really stink up the joint.
Ravens @ Dolphins
The Ravens stopped the Dolphins from running. And the Dolphins' passing game isn't enough to sustain many drives all by itself, and so the Dolphins were only able to score 13 points in this game. And while the Dolphins' defense has played well this season, they need more help than 13 points from their offense to get a win against a team that can move the ball like the Ravens.
Steelers @ Bengals
As bad as this looks for the Bengals, most of the damage came on just two plays. The Bengals lost a fumble that the Steelers turned into a touchdown. The Steelers subsequent drive consisted of one 94 yard touchdown pass to rookie WR Martavis Bryant. And what had been a close game through three quarters turned into a blow-out almost in the blink of an eye.
49ers @ Raiders
The 49ers defense had some issues in this game, giving up three long drives for touchdowns. But to my eye, the real problem in this game was the 49ers offense. A couple turnovers, three field goal tries (one missed) and a touchdown aren't gonna win many games. And that's demonostrated in the 49ers record this season. They're 2-6 when they don't score at least 22 points (it's also worth noting those two wins came in close games against bad NFC East opponents).

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
The Eagles' offense just wasn't able to move the ball down the field. Apart from their second touchdown, their longest drive went just 25 yards.
Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)
I thought the Cardinals were in deep trouble after Jamaal Charles scored his second touchdown of the day to give the Chiefs an 8 point lead. But the Cardinals' defense played a lot better in this game, shutting the Chiefs out in the second half (thanks in part to a controversial fumble ruling) while putting together a couple scoring drives that put them in the lead.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 5 127-64-166.4%
SRS 11- 5 124-67-164.8%
Line 11- 5 132-59-169.0%

Monday, December 8, 2014

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.1249
(LW × 1.0097)
10-3Won by 9
@ Chargers
2 (-)Broncos1.0580
(LW × 1.0025)
10-3Won by 7
vs Bills
3 (↑3)Seahawks1.0168
(LW × 1.0445)
9-4Won by 10
@ Eagles
4 (↓1)Packers1.0004
(LW × 0.9739)
10-3Won by 6
vs Falcons
5 (-)Chiefs0.9985
(LW × 0.9951)
7-6Lost by 3
@ Cardinals
6 (↑2)Cardinals0.9793
(LW × 1.0242)
10-3Won by 3
vs Chiefs
7 (↓3)Dolphins0.9560
(LW × 0.9498)
7-6Lost by 15
vs Ravens
8 (↓1)Eagles0.9507
(LW × 0.9806)
9-4Lost by 10
vs Seahawks
9 (-)Lions0.9505
(LW × 0.9953)
9-4Won by 17
vs Buccaneers
10 (↑3)Ravens0.9375
(LW × 1.0340)
8-5Won by 15
@ Dolphins
11 (↓1)Bills0.9360
(LW × 0.9916)
7-6Lost by 7
@ Broncos
12 (↓1)Colts0.9358
(LW × 0.9963)
9-4Won by 1
@ Browns
13 (↑1)Rams0.9341
(LW × 1.0351)
6-7Won by 24
@ Washington
14 (↓2)Chargers0.9220
(LW × 0.9924)
8-5Lost by 9
vs Patriots
15 (↑3)Steelers0.8947
(LW × 1.0343)
8-5Won by 21
@ Bengals
16 (-)Cowboys0.8892
(LW × 1.0085)
9-4Won by 13
@ Bears
17 (↑2)Texans0.8655
(LW × 1.0053)
7-6Won by 14
@ Jaguars
18 (↓3)49ers0.8608
(LW × 0.9703)
7-6Lost by 11
@ Raiders
19 (↓2)Bengals0.8377
(LW × 0.9544)
8-4-1Lost by 21
vs Steelers
20 (↑2)Vikings0.8246
(LW × 0.9944)
6-7Won by 6
vs Jets
21 (↑2)Browns0.8243
(LW × 0.9945)
7-6Lost by 1
vs Colts
22 (↑2)Falcons0.8240
(LW × 1.0335)
5-8Lost by 6
@ Packers
23 (↑3)Raiders0.8148
(LW × 1.0416)
2-11Won by 11
vs 49ers
24 (↓3)Bears0.8114
(LW × 0.9693)
5-8Lost by 13
vs Cowboys
25 (↓5)Saints0.8090
(LW × 0.9436)
5-8Lost by 31
vs Panthers
26 (↓1)Jets0.7883
(LW × 1.0017)
2-11Lost by 6
@ Vikings
27 (-)Giants0.7828
(LW × 1.0139)
4-9Won by 29
@ Titans
28 (↑2)Panthers0.7694
(LW × 1.0360)
4-8-1Won by 31
@ Saints
29 (↓1)Buccaneers0.7488
(LW × 0.9890)
2-11Lost by 17
@ Lions
30 (↓1)Washington0.7354
(LW × 0.9744)
3-10Lost by 24
vs Rams
31 (-)Jaguars0.7034
(LW × 0.9721)
2-11Lost by 14
vs Texans
32 (-)Titans0.6744
(LW × 0.9634)
2-11Lost by 29
vs Giants

Comments:

  • Wow, that was a pretty ugly game by the Packers tonight. They haven't given up 37 points and won since 2011 (which does not bring up happy memories for Packer fans).

    That was the most passing yards the Packers' defense has given up all season, and the only game they've given up 4 touchdown passes. Maybe it was a fluke game, but it feels to me like the Packers' chances to get to the Super Bowl this year just took a major blow.

  • The Cardinals get a crucial home win, and with the 49ers playing the way they have, another win week 17 seems like a real possibility.

  • The Seahawks get a crucial win of their own, which means the Seahawks @ Cardinals game week 16 will probably decide the NFC West. And with head-to-head tiebreakers over the Packers and now the Eagles, the Seahawks have a real shot at the top seed too.

  • The Patriots are down to three division games, with week 16 at the Jets the only one on the road. Barring a major face plant, the Pats should be able to win out with relative ease, which will get them the #1 seed in the AFC.

  • Looking at APR's top 10 teams, the Chiefs and Dolphins are the only ones that seem out of place.

  • And #16 may kinda low for the 9-win Cowboys, but looking at their record, that week 6 win over the Seahawks is maybe the only win over a quality team they have this season. They lost to the 49ers, Cardinals, and Eagles, so I'm not sure how much wins over the likes of the Giants, Jaguars and Titans should really matter.

  • As an update on the monitor situation, the old one seems to be hanging in there, and the new one is scheduled to arrive Wednesday, so it looks like FSPI will go on as scheduled this week.

Friday, December 5, 2014

Administrative note: this week's posts may be late

My monitor is dying. I have another on order, scheduled to arrive some time next week. Meanwhile the old one is still more-or-less usable, but I'm not sure how long that will last. Hopefully my old monitor can hang on until the new one gets here, but if it doesn't, this week's posts will be delayed until I can get going again.

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

NFL Week 14 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Falcons @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2883
Packers
δ=13.3
Packers
-12
Buccaneers @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.2614
Lions
δ=12.9
Lions
-9½
Patriots @
Chargers
Patriots
ρ=1.1992
Patriots*
δ=9.6
Patriots
-3½
Rams @
Washington
Rams
ρ=1.1957
Rams*
δ=6.8
Rams
-2½
Texans @
Jaguars
Texans
ρ=1.1898
Texans*
δ=12.6
Texans
-5½
Panthers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.1543
Saints
δ=7.6
Saints
-10
49ers @
Raiders
49ers
ρ=1.1340
49ers*
δ=9.8
49ers
-8
Colts @
Browns
Colts
ρ=1.1332
Colts*
δ=9.6
Colts
-3½
Bills @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.1180
Broncos
δ=4.7
Broncos
-10
Ravens @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1101
Dolphins
δ=2.6
Dolphins
-2½
Giants @
Titans
Giants
ρ=1.1029
Giants*
δ=5.2
Giants
-1
Jets @
Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.0537
Vikings
δ=5.2
Vikings
-7
Cowboys @
Bears
Cowboys
ρ=1.0534
Cowboys*
δ=6.0
Cowboys
-3½
Chiefs @
Cardinals
Chiefs*
ρ=1.0494
Chiefs*
δ=3.7
Cardinals
-1½
Steelers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0146
Bengals
δ=0.8
Bengals
-3
Seahawks @
Eagles
Seahawks
ρ=1.0041
Seahawks*
δ=0.8
Eagles
-1

Comments:

  • No line for Giants @ Titans, probably because the Giants are a mess right now, injury wise. I'll check again Saturday. Update: I see a line with Giants -1, so I'm going with that.

  • The Cards are coming off an embarrassing loss last Sunday, will be playing at home. In a very tough remaining schedule, this is one of the Cards' best chances to notch another win. I think the NFC West winner will have at least 11 wins, so the Cardinals really need to win their last two home games to have a chance. (And hope the Eagles can give them some help by beating the Seahawks this week.)

  • When the Saints play well, they can go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the league. When they don't play well, they're just another bad NFC South team. If they play more like the team that pounded the Steelers, and less like the team that couldn't get a home win against the Bengals, they should take the NFC South pretty easy. The first step is to take care of the Panthers, who haven't won since the first week in October.

  • The Dolphins are unanimously picked to beat the Ravens which (given the way the Fins looked Monday night) feels like a mistake. If they can't do something about their run defense, this will almost certainly be a game I'll be writing about in the pick results post.

  • There's an amusing symmetry with the Cowboys and Bears. The Cowboys are 8-0 when they score 20 or more points, the Bears are 0-7 when they allow more than 20 points. I think the Cowboys will score early and often on the Bears' bad defense, the Bears' mediocre offense (which hasn't scored more than 28 points all season) won't be able to keep up, and both of those streaks will be extended Thursday night.

  • I'm not quite sure what to make of the Seahawks @ Eagles match up. Mark Sanchez (apart from the game against the Packers) has done surprisingly well in relief of Nick Foles, although (again, apart from the Packers, and maybe the Cowboys) he's faced some pretty weak teams. If the Seahawks' defense can get some pressure, they can probably take over this game. But the way the Eagles can score points, it may only take a few mistakes by the Seahawks for the Eagles to get enough of a lead to control the game themselves.

    Either way, I feel like this game will be decided when the Eagles offense and the Seahawks defense is on the field.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

Right:

Bengals @ Buccaneers
Broncos @ Chiefs
Dolphins @ Jets
Bears @ Lions
Titans @ Texans
Raiders @ Rams
Panthers @ Vikings
Browns @ Bills
Washington @ Colts

Wrong:

Saints @ Steelers
Drew Brees had his best game of the season, passing for 257 yards and 5 touchdowns, with Mark Ingram contributing 122 yards on the ground. The Steelers did manage something of a late rally, but it's not as close as the final score makes it look, as their final touchdown came on the last play of the game.
Chargers @ Ravens
I watched the end of this game, and I'm still not totally sure what happened. Into the 4th quarter, the Ravens' defense had held the Chargers to just 13 points, putting them pretty solidly in control of the game. Then... well then maybe the Ravens had an injury on defense or something that I missed? Because then the Chargers put together three sustained drives, all for touchdowns, with the last providing the game winning points. The Ravens are now 2-5 when they give up 20 or more points.
Giants @ Jaguars
Two lost fumbles returned for touchdowns and a second half where only one drive went longer than 21 yards is a bad, bad combination, even against a weak team like the Jaguars.
Cardinals @ Falcons
This was a breakdown of the Cardinals' defense. They have pretty much played all their games in the "keep it close and win it in the 4th quarter" cliche style. But without Carson Palmer, without Larry FItzgerald, and without any support from the running game, this game was lost when the Falcons established a 17 point advantage in the first quarter.

Split Picks: (APR 2-1, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
The Cowboys didn't do themselves any favors on offense, producing just one drive longer than 35 yards until well into garbage time. But a more glaring problem was the Cowboys' defense, which allowed the Eagles to score on 7 of their first 9 drives. They just aren't the kind of team that can give up that many scores and stay in the game.
Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
The 49ers just had a miserable game on offense. Colin Kaepernick barely completed half of his passes, with the longest one going for just 16 yards. The rushing game was stuffed, with a team total of 68 yards. They only managed one drive longer than 33 yards.
Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)
A close game between a couple very good teams, that came down to the last couple minutes. I was half expecting the Patriots to run away with this one, so I gotta give a lot of credit to the Packers' defense for at least slowing down Rob Gronkowski and LeGarrette Blount.
The Pats made a few mistakes (letting the Packers get out to a 13-0 lead, that Jordy Nelson TD at the first half, and the missed FG at the end of the game). It wasn't much, but with the Packers playing as well as they were, it was enough.

Totals

Another decent week for everybody, and once again a couple road dog wins means the algorithms pick up another game on the Line.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 5 115-57-167.2%
SRS 11- 5 112-60-165.4%
Line 10- 6 118-54-168.9%

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.1141
(LW × 1.0077)
9-3Lost by 5
@ Packers
2 (-)Broncos1.0553
(LW × 1.0184)
9-3Won by 13
@ Chiefs
3 (↑3)Packers1.0272
(LW × 1.0396)
9-3Won by 5
vs Patriots
4 (↑1)Dolphins1.0066
(LW × 1.0137)
7-5Won by 3
@ Jets
5 (↓2)Chiefs1.0034
(LW × 0.9790)
7-5Lost by 13
vs Broncos
6 (↑1)Seahawks0.9734
(LW × 1.0151)
8-4Won by 16
@ 49ers
7 (↑1)Eagles0.9695
(LW × 1.0220)
9-3Won by 23
@ Cowboys
8 (↓4)Cardinals0.9562
(LW × 0.9584)
9-3Lost by 11
@ Falcons
9 (↑4)Lions0.9550
(LW × 1.0328)
8-4Won by 17
vs Bears
10 (↑5)Bills0.9439
(LW × 1.0302)
7-5Won by 16
vs Browns
11 (↓2)Colts0.9393
(LW × 0.9964)
8-4Won by 22
vs Washington
12 (↑2)Chargers0.9290
(LW × 1.0102)
8-4Won by 1
@ Ravens
13 (↓2)Ravens0.9067
(LW × 0.9790)
7-5Lost by 1
vs Chargers
14 (↑2)Rams0.9024
(LW × 1.0198)
5-7Won by 52
vs Raiders
15 (↓3)49ers0.8871
(LW × 0.9591)
7-5Lost by 16
vs Seahawks
16 (↓6)Cowboys0.8818
(LW × 0.9431)
8-4Lost by 23
vs Eagles
17 (↑1)Bengals0.8777
(LW × 0.9945)
8-3-1Won by 1
@ Buccaneers
18 (↓1)Steelers0.8651
(LW × 0.9787)
7-5Lost by 3
vs Saints
19 (-)Texans0.8610
(LW × 0.9924)
6-6Won by 24
vs Titans
20 (↑1)Saints0.8573
(LW × 1.0188)
5-7Won by 3
@ Steelers
21 (↑1)Bears0.8371
(LW × 0.9964)
5-7Lost by 17
@ Lions
22 (↑2)Vikings0.8292
(LW × 1.0357)
5-7Won by 18
vs Panthers
23 (↓3)Browns0.8289
(LW × 0.9786)
7-5Lost by 16
@ Bills
24 (↑4)Falcons0.7973
(LW × 1.0431)
5-7Won by 11
vs Cardinals
25 (↑2)Jets0.7869
(LW × 1.0246)
2-10Lost by 3
vs Dolphins
26 (↓1)Raiders0.7823
(LW × 0.9826)
1-11Lost by 52
@ Rams
27 (↓4)Giants0.7721
(LW × 0.9640)
3-9Lost by 1
@ Jaguars
28 (↑2)Buccaneers0.7571
(LW × 1.0061)
2-10Lost by 1
vs Bengals
29 (↓3)Washington0.7547
(LW × 0.9765)
3-9Lost by 22
@ Colts
30 (↓1)Panthers0.7427
(LW × 0.9831)
3-8-1Lost by 18
@ Vikings
31 (↑1)Jaguars0.7236
(LW × 1.0106)
2-10Won by 1
vs Giants
32 (↓1)Titans0.7000
(LW × 0.9744)
2-10Lost by 24
@ Texans

Comments:

  • A lot of power rankings will, no doubt, put the Packers in the top slot this week. But I think APR is right to keep the Pats at #1. They still have that very impressive streak of wins over the Broncos, Colts, and Lions. The fact that they went into a very hostile Lambeau field, and took the Packers to the wire is still pretty solid.

  • Thanks to a couple upset wins by the Falcons and Saints, we know the eventual NFC South winner will have at least 5 wins. The Saints seem to have a pretty easy remaining schedule, with three division games and a visit to the struggling Bears. So in spite of the doom-sayers, it's possible they could make it to 8 or even 9 wins.

  • I'm actually kinda surprised APR gave the Dolphins a one-spot bump on their 3 point win over the now 2-10 Jets. I suppose that's at least partly due to wins by nearly every team they've already played this week, making their record look retroactively more impressive.

  • That was a really costly loss for the Cardinals this week. Even if they win their remaining home games (and facing the Chiefs and Seahawks, there's no guarantees), they've still got a couple of tough road games at the Rams and 49ers. With the Seahawks perhaps shaking off their early season troubles, the Cardinals might actually find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes playoff time.

  • And speaking of ugly losses, this was the first time the Rams have scored 50 or more points since the Greatest Show on Turf era, and the first time the Raiders have given up 50 or more points since ah, well, last year. (It is the worst loss for the Raiders since the early days of the AFL, though.)

  • The Browns, despite their winning record, have dropped down into the bottom 10 of the rankings. But given the quality of their last three games (drubbing by the Texans and Bills, separated by a squeaker win over the Falcons) I'd be hard pressed to make a case for a much higher spot.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Week 13 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Cardinals @
Falcons
Cardinals
ρ=1.3053
Cardinals*
δ=9.8
Cardinals
-2½
Dolphins @
Jets
Dolphins
ρ=1.2929
Dolphins*
δ=16.4
Dolphins
-5½
Washington @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.2197
Colts
δ=13.8
Colts
-9½
Titans @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.2076
Texans
δ=9.2
Texans
-6
Bengals @
Buccaneers
Bengals
ρ=1.1728
Bengals*
δ=12.5
Bengals
-4
Patriots @
Packers
Patriots
ρ=1.1189
Patriots*
δ=4.8
Packers
-3
Giants @
Jaguars
Giants
ρ=1.1185
Giants*
δ=7.7
Giants
-2½
Raiders @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.1114
Rams
δ=0.7
Rams
-7
Bears @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.1007
Lions
δ=7.0
Lions
-7
Browns @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.0817
Bills
δ=6.0
Bills
-2½
Panthers @
Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.0598
Vikings
δ=3.8
Vikings
-3
Saints @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.0504
Steelers
δ=0.2
Steelers
-3½
Seahawks @
49ers
Seahawks
ρ=1.0368
Seahawks*
δ=5.8
49ers
-1
Eagles @
Cowboys
Eagles
ρ=1.0146
Eagles*
δ=2.0
Cowboys
-3
Broncos @
Chiefs
Broncos*
ρ=1.0110
Broncos*
δ=1.8
Broncos
-2
Chargers @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0071
Ravens
δ=2.2
Ravens
-5½

Comments:

  • Every NFC South team lost last week, and all are unanimously picked to lose this week. If that happens, every NFC South team will have at least 8 losses.

  • There have already been complaints about a bad NFC South division winner making the playoffs, while two of the Eagles (8-3), Cowboys (8-3), Packers (8-3), Lions (7-4), Cardinals (9-2), Seahawks (7-4) and 49ers (7-4) will be out of the playoffs.

    But the truth is, the most direct route to the playoffs is, and always has been, win your division. When league switched to four division winners and two wildcards in 2002, that became even more important. You wanna make the playoffs? All you gotta do is be better than three other teams.

    The battle cry of the playoffs has always been "you wanna be the best, you gotta beat the best". Does anybody really think it's a good idea to change it to "we're kinda good too"? Anyway, rant over.

  • The Packers have been very good at home this season, but I was a lot more confident they could win this week before the Patriots beat the Broncos, Colts, and Lions all by 22 points or more. I'm not sure the Packers defense will be able to stop Gronkowski or the Pats running game, so this could be a game like Packers @ Saints, where the Packers get buried as soon as the offense falters.

  • Seahawks @ 49ers is a critical game for both teams. The the loser will be 3 games out of first place in the NFC West (assuming the Cardinals take care of business with the Falcons) and at 7-5, will be on the outside looking in for a wildcard spot too.

  • Eagles @ Cowboys is the first half of the home-and-away series that will likely decide the NFC East winner. Looking at the tie breaker situation, the Cowboys probably have to sweep this series in order to win the division.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-2)

Right:

Packers @ Vikings
Cowboys @ Giants
Lions @ Patriots
Titans @ Eagles
Jaguars @ Colts
Buccaneers @ Bears
Rams @ Chargers
Washington @ 49ers
Dolphins @ Broncos
Jets "@" Bills

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Raiders
The Chiefs had a lot of problems in this game, but there's a couple things that really stand out to me. First, on their final scoring drive, they got inside the Raiders' 10 yard line, but couldn't punch it in for a touchdown, instead settling for a field goal and a slim 3 point lead.
The second thing was, after that, the Chiefs' defense desperately needed to get a stop. Instead the Raiders drove 80 yards, and used over 9 minutes of game time to score the go-ahead touchdown, and left the Chiefs 95 seconds to respond. The Chiefs are really not a quick-strike defense, especially with no timeouts left, and they ran out of time before they could respond.
Bengals @ Texans
The Bengals certainly didn't have an amazing day on offense in this game. They had three drives longer than 37 yards, resulting in a touchdown, a field goal, and a turnover on downs.
So the door was certainly open for the Texans to take this one. But Ryan Mallett was not productive passing (throwing for just 189 yards on 45 attempts) and the Texans' running game was unable to make up the difference. The result was two field goals, a punt, and a turnover on downs for the Texans' four best drives.

Split Picks: (APR 2-1, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Seahawks (Line)
The Cardinals' defense really did their job in this game, holding the Seahawks to just 4 field goals until late in the third quarter. If the offense had been even moderately productive, they could've won this game. But the Cardinals' offense only crossed midfield three times, producing a field goal, a missed field goal, and a punt. That's just not gonna win any games. (Unless, I suppose, the field is a muddy mess.)
Browns (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
The Browns really tried to give this game to the Falcons, but they just wouldn't take it. Brian Hoyer threw a couple late interceptions, but the Falcons were only able to get one field goal out of them. Meanwhile the Falcons couldn't much run the ball, and left the door open for the Browns to drive for a winning field goal at the end of the game.
Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)
After having goal to go early, the Saints couldn't punch the ball in for a touchdown, they couldn't stop the Ravens' running game, and Drew Brees threw his third pick six of the season. All in all you gotta wonder what ever happened to the Saints team people thought were gonna contend for the Super Bowl this year.

Totals

A nice week of picks all around, and thanks to a couple road dog wins, the algorithms pick up a game on the Line.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 12- 3 104-52-166.6%
SRS 12- 3 101-55-164.6%
Line 11- 4 108-48-169.1%