Monday, December 31, 2012

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-4)

Right:

Bears @ Lions
Chiefs @ Broncos
Cardinals @ 49ers
Eagles @ Giants
Dolphins @ Patriots
Rams @ Seahawks
Jaguars @ Titans
Raiders @ Chargers
Cowboys @ Redskins
Browns @ Steelers

Wrong:

Buccaneers @ Falcons
The Falcons played their starters the whole game, so this loss can't be blamed on resting key players. But for whatever reason, the Falcons came out very flat. Their offense only had 2 drives longer than 37 yards, and their defense gave up 4 long drives that all ended in scores.
Panthers @ Saints
The Saints defense had their worst game of the season, giving up a season-high 530 yards and near season high 44 points. Drew Brees had a very good game, but was not able to score points as fast as his defense was giving them up.
Packers @ Vikings
Adrian Peterson had another career day. But the difference between this game and the Vikings-Packers match up from week 13 is that Christian Ponder (234 yards and 3 touchdowns passing) had a very good game. As long as Ponder is able to be that good passing, the Vikings are going to be a very, very tough out in the playoffs.
Texans @ Colts
The Texans' offense didn't look good in this game: they settled for field goal tries too many times, Matt Schaub threw a couple critical interceptions, and the once-vaunted Texans defense couldn't stop the Colts from running ou the final 9:46(!) of the 4th quarter. A stunning loss for a team that for most of the season had the best record in the AFC.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-1, SRS: 0-2, Line: 2-0)

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)
The Jets offense couldn't get the ball in the end zone (they were 0/3 in the red zone), Mark Sanchez through another pick 6, and the Jets' defense gave up 3 sustained touchdown drives.
Ravens (SRS) @ Bengals (APR, Line)
As expected, this was a battle of the backups after brief cameos by Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and a number of other key starters.

Totals

Another pretty decent season for APR.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11-5 150-89-162.7%
SRS 10-6 146-93-161.0%
Line 12-4 155-84-164.8%

Sunday, December 30, 2012

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.0709
(LW × 0.9900)
13-3Won by 35
vs Chiefs
2 (-)Seahawks1.0302
(LW × 1.0069)
11-5Won by 7
vs Rams
3 (-)Patriots1.0243
(LW × 1.0021)
12-4Won by 28
vs Dolphins
4 (-)49ers1.0176
(LW × 0.9987)
11-4-1Won by 14
vs Cardinals
5 (-)Packers0.9633
(LW × 0.9862)
11-5Lost by 3
@ Vikings
6 (↑2)Redskins0.9593
(LW × 1.0211)
10-6Won by 10
vs Cowboys
7 (-)Bengals0.9583
(LW × 1.0197)
10-6Won by 6
vs Ravens
8 (↑1)Vikings0.9403
(LW × 1.0196)
10-6Won by 3
vs Packers
9 (↓3)Falcons0.9323
(LW × 0.9656)
13-3Lost by 5
vs Buccaneers
10 (↑5)Panthers0.9230
(LW × 1.0231)
7-9Won by 6
@ Saints
11 (↑1)Ravens0.9219
(LW × 1.0040)
10-6Lost by 6
@ Bengals
12 (↓1)Giants0.9130
(LW × 0.9932)
9-7Won by 35
vs Eagles
13 (-)Bears0.9025
(LW × 0.9977)
10-6Won by 2
@ Lions
14 (↓4)Saints0.8996
(LW × 0.9757)
7-9Lost by 6
vs Panthers
15 (↑2)Colts0.8871
(LW × 1.0215)
11-5Won by 12
vs Texans
16 (↓2)Texans0.8835
(LW × 0.9770)
12-4Lost by 12
@ Colts
17 (↑1)Steelers0.8785
(LW × 1.0140)
8-8Won by 14
vs Browns
18 (↓2)Cowboys0.8760
(LW × 0.9904)
8-8Lost by 10
@ Redskins
19 (-)Rams0.8720
(LW × 1.0101)
7-8-1Lost by 7
@ Seahawks
20 (↑2)Buccaneers0.8440
(LW × 1.0137)
7-9Won by 5
@ Falcons
21 (↓1)Dolphins0.8427
(LW × 0.9905)
7-9Lost by 28
@ Patriots
22 (↓1)Chargers0.8368
(LW × 1.0004)
7-9Won by 3
vs Raiders
23 (-)Browns0.8115
(LW × 0.9819)
5-11Lost by 14
@ Steelers
24 (↑2)Bills0.8014
(LW × 1.0254)
6-10Won by 19
vs Jets
25 (↑2)Titans0.7819
(LW × 1.0061)
6-10Won by 18
vs Jaguars
26 (↓1)Lions0.7778
(LW × 0.9788)
4-12Lost by 2
vs Bears
27 (↓3)Jets0.7750
(LW × 0.9637)
6-10Lost by 19
@ Bills
28 (↑1)Raiders0.7566
(LW × 1.0099)
4-12Lost by 3
@ Chargers
29 (↓1)Cardinals0.7501
(LW × 0.9953)
5-11Lost by 14
@ 49ers
30 (-)Eagles0.7310
(LW × 0.9962)
4-12Lost by 35
@ Giants
31 (-)Chiefs0.7121
(LW × 1.0246)
2-14Lost by 35
@ Broncos
32 (-)Jaguars0.6744
(LW × 0.9803)
2-14Lost by 18
@ Titans

Comments:

  • The Saints set a new record for yards allowed in a season at 7,042. Football Outsiders has a good article on the 81 Colts and how their record-setting season went. The '12 Saints aren't anywhere near as dysfunctional.

  • So the Seahawks' Fail Mary play costs the Packers the #2 seed. But it's hard to get too upset about it when the Packers had a good chance for it anyway, and lost it largely because they couldn't slow down Christian Ponder.

  • The Panthers end up the highest ranked team with a losing record, as well as the highest ranked team out of the playoffs. The Panthers finished 6-3 after a 1-6 start.

  • The Texans are the lowest ranked team with a winning record, and the lowest ranked team in the playoffs. They really haven't looked good lately.

  • With the Giants eliminated from the playoffs, the streak of Super Bowl winning teams not winning a playoff game the subsequent season will be extended to 7 years.

  • If the Patriots win the Super Bowl, they will join the 1970-71 Cowboys (SB VI, SB VII) and 1971-72 Dolphins (SB VII, SB VIII) as the only teams to win the Super Bowl the year after they lost it.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

NFL Week 17 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Chiefs @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.5566
Broncos
δ=22.9
Broncos
-16
Cardinals @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.3519
49ers
δ=13.1
49ers
-16½
Eagles @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.2530
Giants
δ=12.7
Giants
-7
Dolphins @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.2014
Patriots
δ=13.8
Patriots
-10
Rams @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1852
Seahawks
δ=12.6
Seahawks
-10½
Buccaneers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1598
Falcons
δ=7.9
Falcons
-4½
Bears @
Lions
Bears
ρ=1.1384
Bears*
δ=10.0
Bears
-3
Jaguars @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.1297
Titans
δ=1.1
Titans
-4
Raiders @
Chargers
Chargers*
ρ=1.1166
Chargers
δ=9.1
Chargers
-10
Cowboys @
Redskins
Redskins*
ρ=1.0622
Redskins
δ=2.2
Redskins
-3
Packers @
Vikings
Packers
ρ=1.0591
Packers*
δ=4.8
Packers
-3
Browns @
Steelers
Steelers*
ρ=1.0483
Steelers
δ=3.6
Steelers
-10
Texans @
Colts
Texans
ρ=1.0414
Texans*
δ=10.6
Texans
-7
Jets @
Bills
Jets
ρ=1.0290
Jets*
δ=3.1
Bills
-3½
Ravens @
Bengals
Bengals*
ρ=1.0235
Ravens*
δ=1.6
Bengals
-2½
Panthers @
Saints
Saints*
ρ=1.0219
Saints
δ=1.4
Saints
-5½

Comments:

  • 3 games with no lines as of Wednesday morning. As usual, I will update these later in the week (assuming the status changes). Update: finally done!

  • As usual, APR and SRS do not take into account teams that have clinched their playoff seed and have nothing to play for.

  • That said, there's still a lot of teams with something to play for. The seeding of the top 4 teams in the AFC is still to be decided. On the NFC side, only the Falcons have their seed clinched, and there are still two open playoff spots.

  • There's also a surprising amount of agreement in the picks. I assume the Line is taking the Bills over the Jets because of the McElroy effect.

  • The Ravens could theoretically move up to the #3 seed, but either way they (and the Bengals) will be playing on wildcard weekend. Thus, that game is likely to be a battle of the back-ups most of the way, so taking the home team there makes as much sense as anything.

  • Your probably-meaningless stat of the week: the Packers are 19-3 in week 17. As you might expect, these games cover the range of possibilities, from resting their players last year, to a must-win game in 2010, to a very bad team playing out the season in 2005.

  • The Packers have a chance to clinch the #2 seed and the bye week that goes with it, and so will certainly be playing for the win this week 17.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Week 16 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+9)
ESPN gives the Colts a 1-spot bump on their 1-score win over the foundering Chiefs. The good news is they've clinched a playoff spot. Perhaps also counting as good news, they'll likely play the Ravens in the wildcard round, which is one of the few possible opponents that won't mean an easy win for the home team.
Texans (-7)
The Texans are really not giving the impression of a team building up momentum for the playoffs. Since their late October Bye week, they've gone to overtime against a couple bad teams, got blown out by the Patriots, and this week suffered a pretty embarrassing home loss to the Vikings.
On the bubble
Nodbody closer than the Falcons (+4)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Saints (-7)
APR holds the Saints steady on their overtime win over the Cowboys. If this team had any kind of a defense at all, they'd be right in the thick of the playoff chase.
On the bubble
Nobody closer than the Panthers (-5)

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

Right:

Falcons @ Lions
Patriots @ Jaguars
Redskins @ Eagles
Colts @ Chiefs
Bears @ Cardinals
Browns @ Broncos
Titans @ Packers
Raiders @ Panthers
Bills @ Dolphins

Wrong:

Vikings @ Texans
Somehow the Texans' offense just never got going against the Vikings pretty average defense. The Texans didn't have a single drive go 50 yards, and only had 3 go longer than 28. A big part of that was lack of production in the rushing game. This is the first time the Texans have been held under 40 yards rushing since 2010.
Rams @ Buccaneers
Another really bad game for the Buccaneers' offense. Josh Freeman threw 4 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. Factor in a lost fumble, and only 80 yards of rushing, and it's another ugly loss for the Bucs.
Giants @ Ravens
Not a great day for the Giants' offense (150 yards passing and 67 yards rushing), but for the second time in as many games, their defense was a major problem. The Ravens had a season-high 553 yards of offense in this game, and no turnovers. You're just not going to beat the Ravens if you let Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and rookie Bernard Pierce all have big games.

49ers @ Seahawks
The 49ers defense just didn't show up for this game. They had one sack, one interception, and gave up 5 touchdown drives, all but one at least 60 yards long. The 49ers won't last long in the playoffs against anybody if they make it a habit of giving up 5 touchdowns every game.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-1, SRS: 3-0, Line: 0-3)

Bengals (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
If you want to make the case that the Steelers made a mistake firing OC Bruce Arians, this game would be a good place to start. The Steelers managed only two drives longer than 45 yards, and could only score 10 points on the Bengals. The Steelers' defense held the Bengals' offense to just 6 points, but a Roethlisberger pick-6 was enough to make the difference.
Chargers (SRS) @ Jets (APR, Line)
If Greg McElroy is the answer for the Jets, he didn't show it in this game. A 50% completion rate, an interception, and sacked 11 times. Even the Chargers can win against an offense like that.
Saints (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
As I noted earlier, in spite of their awful defense, Saints still win games as long as Drew Brees has a good game. In this game, Brees threw for 446 yards, 3 touchdowns, and was never sacked. The Saints are now 7-0 when Brees has a passer rating over 110, and the Cowboys are 1-6 when they give up 27 or more points.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11-5 139-84-162.3%
SRS 12-4 136-87-160.9%
Line 9-7 143-80-164.1%

Sunday, December 23, 2012

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.0818
(LW × 1.0041)
12-3Won by 22
vs Browns
2 (↑2)Seahawks1.0231
(LW × 1.0234)
10-5Won by 29
vs 49ers
3 (↓1)Patriots1.0222
(LW × 0.9647)
11-4Won by 7
@ Jaguars
4 (↓1)49ers1.0189
(LW × 0.9691)
10-4-1Lost by 29
@ Seahawks
5 (-)Packers0.9768
(LW × 0.9923)
11-4Won by 48
vs Titans
6 (-)Falcons0.9656
(LW × 0.9898)
13-2Won by 13
@ Lions
7 (↑4)Bengals0.9398
(LW × 1.0155)
9-6Won by 3
@ Steelers
8 (↑1)Redskins0.9395
(LW × 1.0009)
9-6Won by 7
@ Eagles
9 (↑7)Vikings0.9223
(LW × 1.0387)
9-6Won by 17
@ Texans
10 (-)Saints0.9220
(LW × 0.9949)
7-8Won by 3
@ Cowboys
11 (↓4)Giants0.9193
(LW × 0.9509)
8-7Lost by 19
@ Ravens
12 (↑3)Ravens0.9182
(LW × 1.0250)
10-5Won by 19
vs Giants
13 (↑1)Bears0.9046
(LW × 1.0075)
9-6Won by 15
@ Cardinals
14 (↓6)Texans0.9043
(LW × 0.9379)
12-3Lost by 17
vs Vikings
15 (↓3)Panthers0.9022
(LW × 0.9992)
6-9Won by 11
vs Raiders
16 (↓3)Cowboys0.8846
(LW × 0.9814)
8-7Lost by 3
vs Saints
17 (-)Colts0.8684
(LW × 0.9839)
10-5Won by 7
@ Chiefs
18 (-)Steelers0.8664
(LW × 0.9828)
7-8Lost by 3
vs Bengals
19 (↑2)Rams0.8633
(LW × 1.0207)
7-7-1Won by 15
@ Buccaneers
20 (-)Dolphins0.8508
(LW × 0.9992)
7-8Won by 14
vs Bills
21 (↑3)Chargers0.8365
(LW × 1.0246)
6-9Won by 10
@ Jets
22 (↓3)Buccaneers0.8325
(LW × 0.9527)
6-9Lost by 15
vs Rams
23 (-)Browns0.8264
(LW × 0.9975)
5-10Lost by 22
@ Broncos
24 (↓2)Jets0.8042
(LW × 0.9557)
6-9Lost by 10
vs Chargers
25 (-)Lions0.7946
(LW × 0.9737)
4-11Lost by 13
vs Falcons
26 (-)Bills0.7815
(LW × 0.9638)
5-10Lost by 14
@ Dolphins
27 (-)Titans0.7772
(LW × 0.9702)
5-10Lost by 48
@ Packers
28 (-)Cardinals0.7537
(LW × 0.9692)
5-10Lost by 15
vs Bears
29 (-)Raiders0.7492
(LW × 0.9979)
4-11Lost by 11
@ Panthers
30 (-)Eagles0.7337
(LW × 0.9835)
4-11Lost by 7
vs Redskins
31 (-)Chiefs0.6950
(LW × 0.9993)
2-13Lost by 7
vs Colts
32 (-)Jaguars0.6880
(LW × 0.9912)
2-13Lost by 7
vs Patriots

Comments:

  • I'm not sure how much I believe the Seahawks at #2, but there's no discounting a dominating win over the 49ers, either.

  • Congradulations to the Bengals, for back-to-back winning seasons, and playoff appearances, for the first time since the 81-82 seasons.

  • The Vikings get a huge upset win, and have somehow clawed their way to a winning season. Adrian Peterson is a big reason, of course, but Christian Ponder has had a couple good games, too.

  • Adrian Peterson only got 86 yards rushing Sunday, which means he needs 102 yards to reach 2000, and 208 yards to break Eric Dickerson's record. AP ran for 210 yards when the Vikings played the Packers in week 13.

  • Calvin Johnson surpassed Jerry Rice's record for receiving yards in a season, and has a real shot to make it to 2000 next week.

  • Thanks to another 400+ yard game, the Saints' defense is within 281 yards of the '81 Colts record for most yards allowed in a season.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

NFL Week 16 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Patriots @
Jaguars
Patriots
ρ=1.5267
Patriots*
δ=26.6
Patriots
-14½
Browns @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.3004
Broncos
δ=13.3
Broncos
-14
Colts @
Chiefs
Colts
ρ=1.2690
Colts*
δ=7.8
Colts
-6½
Redskins @
Eagles
Redskins
ρ=1.2582
Redskins*
δ=11.0
Redskins
-4½
Titans @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2288
Packers
δ=14.0
Packers
-13
Raiders @
Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.2027
Panthers
δ=11.8
Panthers
-9½
Falcons @
Lions
Falcons
ρ=1.1954
Falcons*
δ=10.0
Falcons
-4
Bears @
Cardinals
Bears
ρ=1.1546
Bears*
δ=9.7
Bears
-5½
Vikings @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.0859
Texans
δ=4.9
Texans
-9
Giants @
Ravens
Giants
ρ=1.0794
Giants*
δ=4.5
Giants
-1
49ers @
Seahawks
49ers
ρ=1.0518
49ers*
δ=1.1
49ers
-1
Bills @
Dolphins
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0501
Dolphins
δ=4.8
Dolphins
-4
Bengals @
Steelers
Bengals
ρ=1.0499
Bengals*
δ=2.8
Steelers
-4
Rams @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers*
ρ=1.0333
Buccaneers
δ=1.3
Buccaneers
-3
Chargers @
Jets
Jets*
ρ=1.0306
Chargers*
δ=1.4
Jets
-1
Saints @
Cowboys
Saints
ρ=1.0281
Saints*
δ=0.9
Cowboys
-2½

Comments:

  • Adrian Peterson needs 294 yards in the Vikings' final two games to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing yards record. Vick Ballard (105) and Chris Johnson (141) are the only players to rush for more than 100 yards on the Texans this season.

  • The Saints are 728 yards away from breaking the '81 Colts record for most yards allowed in a season. They've only held their opponent under 364 yards one time this season, in their week 13 loss to the Falcons.

  • The '81 Colts record for most points allowed in a season should remain safe for another year. The Raiders or Bills would need to allow 132 points in their final two games to surpass 533 points allowed in a season.

  • The Packers are just a half-game behind the 49ers, so the #2 seed in the playoffs will remain in play as long as Green Bay keeps winning.

  • Giants @ Ravens should be a telling matchup. Either way it goes, the loser of that game will be in a serious tail-spin. If the Giants lose, it will drop them to 8-7, and could be the end of their playoff hopes. The Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot, but a loss would put their hold on the AFC North in jeopardy, and mean virtually no momentum going into the final game of the season.

  • Bengals @ Steelers is another do-or-die matchup this week, with the Steelers needing a win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. The Bengals haven't won in Pittsburgh since 2009.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

NFL Week 15 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 15 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+8)
ESPN holds the Colts steady after their "expected" 2-score loss to the Texans, while APR drops them 3 spots. APR is probably also dropping them because their wins over the Vikings and Packers are getting less weight, and all the other Colts wins are over teams with losing records.
On the bubble
Nodbody closer than the Texans (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-11)
Here we go again. The Panthers are 5-9, and well out of the playoffs. On the other hand, they are 3-1 in their last 4, including a solid win over the conference-leading Atlanta Falcons. (The Panthers also get a nice indirect boost because of how the Falcons dismantled the Giants this week.)
Saints (-8)
The Saints are another team benefitting from the Falcons rise in power, along with a dominating win over the Bucs.
On the bubble
Nobody closer than the Giants (-5)

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-2)

Right:

Bengals @ Eagles
Seahawks @ Bills
Broncos @ Ravens
Redskins @ Browns
Jaguars @ Dolphins
Colts @ Texans
Chiefs @ Raiders

Wrong:

Lions @ Cardinals
The Cardinals' offense was its usual, ineffective self: 196 total net yards and an interception. But the Lions were in full-on melt-down mode: 3 interceptions and a lost fumble gave the Cardinals 4 easy touchdowns, and when the Lions didn't turn the ball over, their drives usually ended with a punt.
49ers @ Patriots
For about 40 minutes of game time, the Patriots played really poorly. They gave up 4 turnovers, and got outscored 41-6. What's astonishing is that for 20 minutes of game time, the Patriots played extraordinarily well, outscoring the 49ers 28-0, tying the game. If they had just been able to hang onto the ball, they probably would've won.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-4, SRS: 3-4, Line: 4-3)

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)
Mark Sanchez threw 4 interceptions to a Titans defense that had 12 interceptions all season prior to this game. The Jets join the Dolphins as the only teams this season not to score at least 19 points on the Titans.
Packers (APR, Line) @ Bears (SRS)
I've said this before, but it's worth repeating: the Bears offense is not very good, and they struggle when they don't get scores on defense or special teams. They only had three drives go longer than 19 yards. This game wouldn't have been even this close if the Packers had taken better care of the ball.
Vikings (SRS) @ Rams (APR, Line)
Didn't the Rams used to have a defense? Adrian Peterson (212 yards on 24 runs) ran all over them, and Christian Ponder only threw incomplete 7 times. A lot of the Vikings' drives ended in field goals, but three touchdowns, including a long AP run and a pick 6 put the game out of reach.
Panthers (APR) @ Chargers (SRS, Line)
The Chargers are a really bad team. They have to fire Norv Turner now, right?
Giants (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
Eli Manning had a poor game (barely a 50% completion rate, 161 yards and 2 interceptions), but perhaps more importantly, the Giants' defense just couldn't stop the Falcons, who got 10 points off the turnovers, and had 3 drives of 69+ yards end in touchdowns, and in the process, had nearly a 2-to-1 advantage in time of possession.
Steelers (APR, Line) @ Cowboys (SRS)
It's tempting to blame this loss on Roethlisberger's health, and certainly that interception in overtime is on him. But the fact is, the Steelers have scored more than 24 points just twice all season. The real problem is their defense: they are 2-6 when they give up 20 or more points. They're also one of the worst defenses in the league at generating turnovers, and the Cowboys are 7-2 when they don't turn the ball over more than once.
Buccaneers (SRS) @ Saints (APR, Line)
The Buccaneers just couldn't do anything on offense in this game. Josh Freeman threw 4 interceptions and lost a fumble. They did manage to get into the red zone a couple times, but turned the ball over on downs both times, never reaching a goal-to-go situation.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 10-6 128-79-161.8%
SRS 10-6 124-83-160.0%
Line 10-6 134-73-164.7%

Monday, December 17, 2012

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Broncos1.0773
(LW × 1.0153)
11-3Won by 17
@ Ravens
2 (↓1)Patriots1.0596
(LW × 0.9513)
10-4Lost by 7
vs 49ers
3 (-)49ers1.0515
(LW × 1.0255)
10-3-1Won by 7
@ Patriots
4 (↑1)Seahawks0.9997
(LW × 1.0125)
9-5Won by 33
@ Bills
5 (↑2)Packers0.9843
(LW × 0.9983)
10-4Won by 8
@ Bears
6 (↑3)Falcons0.9755
(LW × 1.0391)
12-2Won by 34
vs Giants
7 (↓3)Giants0.9668
(LW × 0.9648)
8-6Lost by 34
@ Falcons
8 (↓2)Texans0.9642
(LW × 0.9776)
12-2Won by 12
vs Colts
9 (↑3)Redskins0.9387
(LW × 1.0233)
8-6Won by 17
@ Browns
10 (↑6)Saints0.9267
(LW × 1.0317)
6-8Won by 41
vs Buccaneers
11 (-)Bengals0.9255
(LW × 1.0046)
8-6Won by 21
@ Eagles
12 (↑8)Panthers0.9029
(LW × 1.0356)
5-9Won by 24
@ Chargers
13 (↑2)Cowboys0.9013
(LW × 1.0016)
8-6Won by 3
vs Steelers
14 (↓4)Bears0.8978
(LW × 0.9694)
8-6Lost by 8
vs Packers
15 (↓7)Ravens0.8958
(LW × 0.9508)
9-5Lost by 17
vs Broncos
16 (↑5)Vikings0.8879
(LW × 1.0189)
8-6Won by 14
@ Rams
17 (↓3)Colts0.8825
(LW × 0.9720)
9-5Lost by 12
@ Texans
18 (↓5)Steelers0.8815
(LW × 0.9653)
7-7Lost by 3
@ Cowboys
19 (↓2)Buccaneers0.8739
(LW × 0.9759)
6-8Lost by 41
@ Saints
20 (↑3)Dolphins0.8515
(LW × 0.9880)
6-8Won by 21
vs Jaguars
21 (↓3)Rams0.8457
(LW × 0.9560)
6-7-1Lost by 14
vs Vikings
22 (-)Jets0.8415
(LW × 0.9700)
6-8Lost by 4
@ Titans
23 (↓4)Browns0.8285
(LW × 0.9489)
5-9Lost by 17
vs Redskins
24 (-)Chargers0.8165
(LW × 0.9490)
5-9Lost by 24
vs Panthers
25 (-)Lions0.8161
(LW × 0.9503)
4-10Lost by 28
@ Cardinals
26 (-)Bills0.8109
(LW × 0.9555)
5-9Lost by 33
vs Seahawks
27 (-)Titans0.8011
(LW × 0.9911)
5-9Won by 4
vs Jets
28 (↑1)Cardinals0.7776
(LW × 1.0271)
5-9Won by 28
vs Lions
29 (↑1)Raiders0.7507
(LW × 1.0030)
4-10Won by 15
vs Chiefs
30 (↓2)Eagles0.7461
(LW × 0.9771)
4-10Lost by 21
vs Bengals
31 (-)Chiefs0.6955
(LW × 0.9649)
2-12Lost by 15
@ Raiders
32 (-)Jaguars0.6941
(LW × 0.9684)
2-12Lost by 21
@ Dolphins

Comments:

  • When the Giants are at the top of their game, they can play with anybody in the league. But boy, when they play poorly, they can really stink up the joint.

  • The Redskins have the longest winning streak in the NFC (5 games), second overall only to the Broncos (9 games).

  • The Seahawks are now 5-1 in their last 6, including a couple high-margin wins in their last two. But the Vikings and Bears are the only opponents they've faced in that run that still have a chance at the playoffs.

  • The 49ers get a big win over one of the best teams in the league. But they also gave up the most points and yards of any game they've played this year, including a stunning stretch of 28 unanswered points. They could be in trouble if other teams can use that as a blueprint to move the ball on their defense.

  • The Browns clinch their 5th straight losing season. They've only had 2 winning seasons in the 14 years since their 1999 reboot.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

NFL Week 15 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Bengals @
Eagles
Bengals
ρ=1.2065
Bengals*
δ=8.3
Bengals
-3
Jaguars @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.2025
Dolphins
δ=9.1
Dolphins
-7
Seahawks @
Bills
Seahawks
ρ=1.1634
Seahawks*
δ=14.4
Seahawks
-5
Lions @
Cardinals
Lions
ρ=1.1343
Lions*
δ=4.8
Lions
-6
Broncos @
Ravens
Broncos
ρ=1.1264
Broncos*
δ=4.6
Broncos
-3
49ers @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0863
Patriots
δ=3.3
Patriots
-6
Colts @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.0862
Texans
δ=11.7
Texans
-9
Jets @
Titans
Jets
ρ=1.0733
Jets*
δ=5.5
Titans
-1
Giants @
Falcons
Giants
ρ=1.0675
Giants*
δ=5.3
Falcons
-1
Packers @
Bears
Packers
ρ=1.0646
Bears
δ=2.6
Packers
-3
Redskins @
Browns
Redskins
ρ=1.0507
Redskins*
δ=5.5
Redskins
-1
Chiefs @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.0385
Raiders
δ=0.3
Raiders
-2½
Vikings @
Rams
Rams*
ρ=1.0152
Vikings*
δ=1.2
Rams
-2½
Steelers @
Cowboys
Steelers
ρ=1.0148
Cowboys
δ=1.7
Steelers
-2
Panthers @
Chargers
Panthers
ρ=1.0134
Chargers
δ=0.4
Chargers
-3
Buccaneers @
Saints
Saints*
ρ=1.0031
Buccaneers*
δ=4.2
Saints
-3½

Comments:

  • No line for Redskins @ Browns while RG3's status is up in the air. I will update when something is announced. Update: RG3 will be a game-time decision; a couple lines are saying Redskins -1, so I'm going with that.

  • The Packers will clinch the NFC North with a win over the Bears. If the Packers do clinch the division, it will be the first time as back-to-back division champions since 2003-2004.

  • The Colts can also clinch a playoff spot with a win, but with the Texans smarting from a prime-time embarrassment in Foxborough, that would be a pretty major upset.

  • I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Broncos over the Ravens. In spite of their troubles, the Ravens are 5-1 at home. On the other hand, the Ravens are starting to show signs of fading down the stretch—they are 1-2 in their last 3, including that skin-of-their-teeth overtime win at the Chargers.

  • SRS is really feeling its oats this week, with 4 rogue picks. SRS is 1-7 when picking against APR and the Line this season. (The lone success was a week 5 pick of the Dolphins over the Bengals.)

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

NFL Week 14 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 14 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble
Nodbody closer than the Colts (+5) who needed yet another come-back win over weak sister opponent, and
The Vikings (+5) who are managing to hang around with the playoff contenders in spite of the almost total lack of a passing game.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble
APR gives the Panthers (-6) a 5-spot bump after their convincing win over the conference-leading Falcons.
ESPN has the Saints (-6) below the Jets, Browns, Dolphins, Rams, and Vikings. At least the Saints still have Drew Brees, and a reasonable hope of putting a contending team back together next year.

NFL Week 14 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-5)

Right:

Broncos @ Raiders
Jets @ Jaguars
Chiefs @ Browns
Titans @ Colts
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Saints @ Giants
Dolphins @ 49ers
Lions @ Packers
Texans @ Patriots

Wrong:

Eagles @ Buccaneers
The Eagles discovered a defense, at least for this game. This is the first time a team hasn't scored more than 21 points on the Eagles since early October (before the firing of DC Juan Castillo).
Cowboys @ Bengals
For all the hype on Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, the Bengals' offense isn't that good. They are 2-6 when they give up more than 13 points on defense. And they couldn't score 20 points on the Cowboys, who have given up at least that much in 8 games this year.
Chargers @ Steelers
The Steelers had breakdowns in pretty much all phases in this game. The offense couldn't move the ball. The defense couldn't get a stop. The punting unit couldn't flip field position. The Steelers only had one interception, but it was a doozy. Roethlisberger was intercepted deep on the Steelers' side of the field. The resulting Chargers' touchdown ended any hope of a Steeler come-back.
Falcons @ Panthers
The Falcons lack of a quick-strike offense continues to be a major vulnerability for them. Their longest first-half drive was just 31 yards. And meanwhile the Panthers had managed to score 16 points. Usually not an insurmountable lead, except when the offense can only manage two drives a quarter, and the defense gives up a couple more touchdowns.
Bears @ Vikings
After their first two touchdowns, the Vikings' day on offense: punt, punt, punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, punt. If Cutler had not thrown those two inteceptions, the Bears win this game.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-1, SRS: 1-1, Line: 1-1)

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (Line)
The Ravens' defense has been suspect all season, and this is another prime example of why. This is the 5th game they've given up at least 28 points in regulation this season, and their offense mostly isn't able to keep up when the defense gives up that many points.
Rams (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)
When the Rams lose, it's mostly because they struggle on defense: they are 1-4-1 when they give up more than 17 points. So the Bills were in trouble when they got to the 4th quarter with just a 5-point lead. And sure enough, the Rams managed one last, late game-winning touchdown drive.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 10-6 118-73-161.7%
SRS 10-6 114-77-160.0%
Line 10-6 124-67-164.8%

Monday, December 10, 2012

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.1139
(LW × 1.0250)
10-3Won by 28
vs Texans
2 (-)Broncos1.0611
(LW × 0.9950)
10-3Won by 13
@ Raiders
3 (↑1)49ers1.0253
(LW × 1.0095)
9-3-1Won by 14
vs Dolphins
4 (↑3)Giants1.0022
(LW × 1.0249)
8-5Won by 25
vs Saints
5 (↑1)Seahawks0.9873
(LW × 1.0074)
8-5Won by 58
vs Cardinals
6 (↓3)Texans0.9862
(LW × 0.9647)
11-2Lost by 28
@ Patriots
7 (↓2)Packers0.9860
(LW × 0.9968)
9-4Won by 7
vs Lions
8 (↑2)Ravens0.9421
(LW × 0.9873)
9-4Lost by 3
@ Redskins
9 (↓1)Falcons0.9388
(LW × 0.9643)
11-2Lost by 10
@ Panthers
10 (↓1)Bears0.9262
(LW × 0.9652)
8-5Lost by 7
@ Vikings
11 (↑1)Bengals0.9212
(LW × 0.9808)
7-6Lost by 1
vs Cowboys
12 (↑4)Redskins0.9173
(LW × 1.0235)
7-6Won by 3
vs Ravens
13 (↓2)Steelers0.9132
(LW × 0.9659)
7-6Lost by 10
vs Chargers
14 (↑1)Colts0.9080
(LW × 1.0021)
9-4Won by 4
vs Titans
15 (↑4)Cowboys0.8999
(LW × 1.0354)
7-6Won by 1
@ Bengals
16 (↓2)Saints0.8982
(LW × 0.9780)
5-8Lost by 25
@ Giants
17 (↓4)Buccaneers0.8954
(LW × 0.9691)
6-7Lost by 2
vs Eagles
18 (-)Rams0.8846
(LW × 1.0142)
6-6-1Won by 3
@ Bills
19 (↑5)Browns0.8731
(LW × 1.0177)
5-8Won by 23
vs Chiefs
20 (↑5)Panthers0.8719
(LW × 1.0297)
4-9Won by 10
vs Falcons
21 (↓1)Vikings0.8714
(LW × 1.0077)
7-6Won by 7
vs Bears
22 (↑1)Jets0.8675
(LW × 1.0085)
6-7Won by 7
@ Jaguars
23 (↓6)Dolphins0.8619
(LW × 0.9869)
5-8Lost by 14
@ 49ers
24 (↑2)Chargers0.8604
(LW × 1.0256)
5-8Won by 10
@ Steelers
25 (↓3)Lions0.8587
(LW × 0.9964)
4-9Lost by 7
@ Packers
26 (↓5)Bills0.8487
(LW × 0.9836)
5-8Lost by 3
vs Rams
27 (-)Titans0.8082
(LW × 0.9948)
4-9Lost by 4
@ Colts
28 (↑2)Eagles0.7635
(LW × 1.0344)
4-9Won by 2
@ Buccaneers
29 (↓1)Cardinals0.7571
(LW × 0.9785)
4-9Lost by 58
@ Seahawks
30 (↓1)Raiders0.7485
(LW × 0.9849)
3-10Lost by 13
vs Broncos
31 (↑1)Chiefs0.7208
(LW × 0.9839)
2-11Lost by 23
@ Browns
32 (↓1)Jaguars0.7167
(LW × 0.9766)
2-11Lost by 7
vs Jets

Comments:

  • The Ravens lose power on their loss to the Redskins, but the Falcons' and Bears' losses cost them more, pushing the Ravens up in the rankings.

  • Adrian Peterson is your come-back player of the year. After a devistating knee injury less than a year ago, he's on pace to rush for the most yards in his career, and also has a career-best yards per carry. If the Vikings manage to sneak into the playoffs (unlikely but not impossible), he should be MVP as well. Just a remarkable recovery, and an extraordinary player.

  • That was the Cardinals franchise-worst loss, beating out an 0-49 loss to the Chiefs in 2002. Hard to believe that team was ever 4-0.

  • That was a pretty ugly loss by the Steelers, and no blaming Charlie Batch this time. After this (and the Steelers' loss to the Browns two weeks ago), I think the Bengals have to be the favorite to clinch the last wildcard spot.

  • The Steelers and Bengals both losing gives the Jets a faint glimmer of hope to get into the playoffs. But the Jets tie-breaker situation is not good, including a head-to-head loss to the Steelers, so the glimmer is faint indeed.

  • The Bears are now 1-4 in their last 5 games. Their last win over a team that (currently) has a winning record was their week4 win over the Cowboys.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

NFL Week 14 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Broncos @
Raiders
Broncos
ρ=1.4033
Broncos*
δ=21.4
Broncos
-10½
Cardinals @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.2667
Seahawks
δ=7.8
Seahawks
-10½
Eagles @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.2517
Buccaneers
δ=11.3
Buccaneers
-7½
Jets @
Jaguars
Jets
ρ=1.1720
Jets*
δ=8.9
Jets
-2½
Chiefs @
Browns
Browns
ρ=1.1710
Browns
δ=7.0
Browns
-6½
Dolphins @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.1630
49ers
δ=13.8
49ers
-10
Falcons @
Panthers
Falcons
ρ=1.1498
Falcons*
δ=8.1
Falcons
-3½
Lions @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.1477
Packers
δ=5.7
Packers
-6½
Chargers @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1270
Steelers
δ=1.5
Steelers
-7
Titans @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1152
Colts
δ=3.0
Colts
-5½
Bears @
Vikings
Bears
ρ=1.1096
Bears*
δ=8.5
Bears
-3
Cowboys @
Bengals
Bengals*
ρ=1.0807
Bengals
δ=0.9
Bengals
-6½
Saints @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.0647
Giants
δ=7.5
Giants
-5
Ravens @
Redskins
Ravens
ρ=1.0646
Ravens*
δ=1.5
Redskins
-2½
Texans @
Patriots
Patriots*
ρ=1.0630
Patriots
δ=4.1
Patriots
-3½
Rams @
Bills
Rams
ρ=1.0110
Rams*
δ=5.1
Bills
-3

Comments:

  • Almost all unanimous picks again this week.

  • Wow, the Line is picking the Redskins over the Ravens? I'm not saying it's wrong, but it is surprising.

  • It sure seems like the Bills are a team the Rams should be able to beat. But the Rams are 1-3-1 on the road, and 0-3 against the other AFC East teams.

  • I mentioned in the week 13 pick results that the Lions have been in nearly every game they've played this season. so a 6½ point line isn't unreasonable. But I have a feeling that in prime time, at Lambeau, facing their 9th loss of the season this could be the game where the wheels really come off for them.

  • On the other hand, with reports that James Starks is hurt, and possibly out for the rest of the season, the Packers weak running game just got worse. Ryan Grant has been re-signed in response, and it sounds like he'll get at least a few carries on Sunday, but it's hard to imagine that he'll be much of a difference-maker at least in his first game back.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

NFL Week 13 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 13 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble
ESPN and APR both hold the Falcons (+6) steady on their first 2-score win since late October.
ESPN and APR both move the Colts (+6) up one spot on their last-second win over the free-falling Lions.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble
APR gives the Seahawks (+6) a 3-spot bump for their road win over the Bears. They might not be worth a #6 spot, but they'll be a dangerous team if they can win more often away from Seattle.

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-5)

Right:

Texans @ Titans
Patriots @ Dolphins
Bengals @ Chargers
Saints @ Falcons
Jaguars @ Bills
Vikings @ Packers
Buccaneers @ Broncos
Eagles @ Cowboys

Wrong:

Seahawks @ Bears
Injuries are piling up on the Bears' defense, and it certainly showed on Sunday. The Seahawks have been notoriously bad on the road this year, but the Bears gave up more yards to the Seahawks than any other game this season. This was also the most yards gained by the Seahawks' offense, home or away.
Steelers @ Ravens
The Ravens really need to hold their opponents under 21 points or so. All 3 of their losses have come when their opponents scored 23+ points (they had a similar stat last year as well). But Charlie Batch had a pretty decent game against them, and the Steelers were able to take advantage of a critical late turnover to tie the game, and then use the final 6:14 of game time to drive for the game-winning field goal.
Giants @ Redskins
I've written before about the Giants' vulnerability to good running teams, and the Redskins did a good job of exploiting it. In racking up over 200 yards of rushing, the kept Manning, Bradshaw, and Cruz off the field and away from opportunities to score points. The result was, even though they only punted 3 times, the Giants (thanks in part to a missed field goal) only managed to score 16 points, which wasn't enough to beat the Redskins.
Panthers @ Chiefs
Three weeks ago, I said the Chiefs would be a better team if they could stop turning the ball over. In their last 4 games, they've only turned the ball over 3 times, and this week, for the first time all season, they didn't turn the ball over at all. Turnovers haven't been the Chiefs only problem, but as long as they have them under control, they should be able to beat some of their lesser opponents.
49ers @ Rams
It shouldn't be too much of a surprise that Colin Kaepernick looked a lot like a 2nd-year player on his 3rd start. The 49ers had just 3 drives go longer than 19 yards. Even without the safety and lost fumble, it's really hard to win in the NFL when your offense only scores 13 points.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-0, SRS: 1-2, Line: 1-2)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)
This game is the perfect example of why yards gained is a lousy measure of how good an offense is. The Raiders gained 429 yards in this game, But for all those yards gained, they only managed to score 17 points, including a late, garbage-time touchdown.
Cardinals (SRS) @ Jets (APR, Line)
This was certainly a highly winnable game for the Cardinals. But their offense just wasn't able to move the ball, going 0-15 on 3rd down conversions. Play calling was also an issue for the Cardinals. Early in the game, they elected to go for a 4th down conversion (which failed) rather than taking a chip-shot field goal. A decision that must loom large in a game decided by 1 point.
Colts (APR) @ Lions (SRS, Line)
The Lions have been in pretty much every game they've played this year, and only lost by more than 8 points one time. But like the Panthers, they are just not able to establish and hang on to a 4th-quarter lead.

Totals

A nice week for APR would've been nicer if so many unanimous picks hadn't gone wrong.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11-5 108-67-161.6%
SRS 9-7 104-71-159.4%
Line 9-7 114-61-165.1%

Monday, December 3, 2012

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.0867
(LW × 1.0290)
9-3Won by 7
@ Dolphins
2 (-)Broncos1.0665
(LW × 1.0178)
9-3Won by 8
vs Buccaneers
3 (↑1)Texans1.0224
(LW × 1.0050)
11-1Won by 14
@ Titans
4 (↓1)49ers1.0157
(LW × 0.9794)
8-3-1Lost by 3
@ Rams
5 (↑2)Packers0.9891
(LW × 1.0038)
8-4Won by 9
vs Vikings
6 (↑3)Seahawks0.9801
(LW × 1.0156)
7-5Won by 6
@ Bears
7 (↓1)Giants0.9778
(LW × 0.9921)
7-5Lost by 1
@ Redskins
8 (-)Falcons0.9736
(LW × 1.0053)
11-1Won by 10
vs Saints
9 (↓4)Bears0.9596
(LW × 0.9659)
8-4Lost by 6
vs Seahawks
10 (-)Ravens0.9541
(LW × 0.9926)
9-3Lost by 3
vs Steelers
11 (↑2)Steelers0.9455
(LW × 1.0354)
7-5Won by 3
@ Ravens
12 (↑2)Bengals0.9393
(LW × 1.0322)
7-5Won by 7
@ Chargers
13 (↓2)Buccaneers0.9240
(LW × 1.0043)
6-6Lost by 8
@ Broncos
14 (↓2)Saints0.9184
(LW × 1.0027)
5-7Lost by 10
@ Falcons
15 (↑1)Colts0.9061
(LW × 1.0286)
8-4Won by 2
@ Lions
16 (↑2)Redskins0.8963
(LW × 1.0193)
6-6Won by 1
vs Giants
17 (↑3)Dolphins0.8733
(LW × 1.0086)
5-7Lost by 7
vs Patriots
18 (↑5)Rams0.8723
(LW × 1.0259)
5-6-1Won by 3
vs 49ers
19 (↓2)Cowboys0.8692
(LW × 0.9872)
6-6Won by 5
vs Eagles
20 (↓5)Vikings0.8648
(LW × 0.9808)
6-6Lost by 9
@ Packers
21 (↑4)Bills0.8628
(LW × 1.0236)
5-7Won by 16
vs Jaguars
22 (↓3)Lions0.8618
(LW × 0.9837)
4-8Lost by 2
vs Colts
23 (↓1)Jets0.8602
(LW × 1.0100)
5-7Won by 1
vs Cardinals
24 (↑2)Browns0.8579
(LW × 1.0244)
4-8Won by 3
@ Raiders
25 (↓4)Panthers0.8467
(LW × 0.9789)
3-9Lost by 6
@ Chiefs
26 (↓2)Chargers0.8389
(LW × 0.9903)
4-8Lost by 7
vs Bengals
27 (-)Titans0.8125
(LW × 0.9881)
4-8Lost by 14
vs Texans
28 (-)Cardinals0.7737
(LW × 0.9964)
4-8Lost by 1
@ Jets
29 (-)Raiders0.7600
(LW × 1.0006)
3-9Lost by 3
vs Browns
30 (↑1)Eagles0.7382
(LW × 1.0008)
3-9Lost by 5
@ Cowboys
31 (↓1)Jaguars0.7339
(LW × 0.9847)
2-10Lost by 16
@ Bills
32 (-)Chiefs0.7326
(LW × 1.0341)
2-10Won by 6
vs Panthers

Comments:

  • Statistically, the Patriots look very similar to last year's team. They again have the #1 offense (both by yards gained and points scored), and a middle-of-the-pack defense. With Belichick as head coach and Tom Brady as quarterback, it's hard to pick against them going deep into the playoffs again this year.

  • The Saints continue to rise and fall on the performance of Drew Brees. They are 5-0 when his passer rating is over 110, and 0-7 when it is under 110.

  • The Chiefs' second win brings them up nearly even with the Jaguars. A decent showing next week (or a bad loss by the Jaguars) could lift them out of last place.

  • Some of the playoff picture is starting to shape up. The Texans, Patriots, Broncos, and Falcons have all clinched playoff spots.

  • It looks like the AFC playoff teams are mostly set, with the last wildcard spot probably coming down to the week 16 matchup between the Bengals and Steelers.

  • The NFC side of the playoffs is still pretty wide open, with 4 teams a game back of the final wildcard spot. The bad news for all those teams on the outside looking in is that the Packers, Bears, and Seahawks all have pretty easy remaining schedules, and so don't seem likely to slip out of the playoffs.

  • There are a couple of exceptions. With the Giants losing to the Redskins, the East is still wide open, and with the 49ers losing to the Rams, the Seahawks still have a chance to win the NFC West.