Sunday, November 30, 2008

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, week 14

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.

BCS Standings will be added sometime Sunday afternoon. Update: done.


RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑2)Oklahoma
BCS=2
11-11.7337
(LW × 1.020)
won by 20
at Oklahoma-St
2 (↓1)Florida
BCS=4
11-11.7304
(LW × 1.012)
won by 30
at Florida-St
3 (↓1)Texas
BCS=3
11-11.6638
(LW × 0.976)
won by 40
vs Texas-A&M
4 (-)Penn-St
BCS=8
11-11.6499
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
5 (-)USC
BCS=5
10-11.6096
(LW × 1.009)
won by 35
vs Notre-Dame
6 (↑3)Boise-St
BCS=9
12-01.5772
(LW × 1.015)
won by 51
vs Fresno-St
7 (↓1)Texas-Tech
BCS=7
11-11.5613
(LW × 0.979)
won by 7
vs Baylor
8 (-)Ohio-St
BCS=10
10-21.5578
(LW × 1.000)
Bye
9 (↓2)Alabama
BCS=1
12-01.5533
(LW × 0.991)
won by 36
vs Auburn
10 (-)Utah
BCS=6
12-01.5491
(LW × 1.000)
Bye
11 (↑1)Ball-St
BCS=12
12-01.5172
(LW × 1.009)
won by 23
vs W-Michigan
12 (↓1)TCU
BCS=11
10-21.5160
(LW × 1.002)
Bye
13 (↑2)Boston-Coll
BCS=17
9-31.4913
(LW × 1.007)
won by 7
vs Maryland
14 (↑2)Cincinnati
BCS=13
10-21.4685
(LW × 0.996)
won by 20
vs Syracuse
15 (↑5)Rutgers6-51.4665
(LW × 1.002)
Bye
16 (↑3)Mississippi8-41.4629
(LW × 0.995)
won by 45
vs Mississippi-St
17 (↑17)Oregon
BCS=19
9-31.4538
(LW × 1.066)
won by 27
at Oregon-St
18 (-)West-Virginia7-41.4523
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 4
at Pittsburgh
19 (↓6)Florida-St
BCS=24
8-41.4506
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 30
vs Florida
20 (↑2)Iowa8-41.4504
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
21 (↑3)North-Carolina8-41.4481
(LW × 1.011)
won by 8
at Duke
22 (↑3)Michigan-St
BCS=21
9-31.4311
(LW × 1.002)
Bye
23 (↑9)Clemson7-51.4281
(LW × 1.039)
won by 17
vs South-Carolina
24 (↑3)Pittsburgh
BCS=23
8-31.4223
(LW × 1.018)
won by 4
vs West-Virginia
25 (↑3)Georgia-Tech
BCS=15
9-31.4207
(LW × 1.023)
won by 3
at Georgia
26 (↓12)Missouri
BCS=20
9-31.4151
(LW × 0.952)
lost by 3
vs Kansas
27 (↓10)Georgia
BCS=16
9-31.4138
(LW × 0.959)
lost by 3
vs Georgia-Tech
28 (↓7)Oklahoma-St
BCS=14
9-31.3977
(LW × 0.956)
lost by 20
vs Oklahoma
29 (-)BYU
BCS=18
10-21.3908
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
30 (↓4)Nebraska8-41.3844
(LW × 0.988)
won by 9
vs Colorado
31 (↓1)Virginia-Tech
BCS=25
8-41.3742
(LW × 0.992)
won by 3
vs Virginia
32 (↑1)Connecticut7-41.3739
(LW × 1.001)
Bye
33 (↑5)NC-State6-61.3695
(LW × 1.027)
won by 10
vs Miami-FL
34 (↓11)Oregon-St8-41.3649
(LW × 0.952)
lost by 27
vs Oregon
35 (↑1)California7-41.3631
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
36 (↓1)Northwestern
BCS=22
9-31.3580
(LW × 0.999)
Bye

Comments:

  • Oklahoma moves up to the #1 spot, but their power index is close enough to Florida's to be virtually tied.

    Florida will have a chance to retake the #1 spot when they play Alabama next week.

  • As I expected, Texas' power index takes a big hit in spite of a 40-point win over now 4-8 Texas A&M. They're now a significant way below #1 Oklahoma.

  • How can the Big 12 South leave their division winner (even at the 5th tie-breaker level) up to the BCS? Might as well just make it a coin-toss.

  • Mississippi has had an amazing season. They were 3-4 at one point before finishing on a 5-game winning streak. None of their losses have been by more than 7 points. Whoever gets them in a bowl game could be in for a very tough game.

  • As predicted (or at least, suggested was possible), LSU finishes the regular season 7-5.

Friday, November 28, 2008

NFL: APR vs. the Eagles and Broncos

If you've been following along at home, you may recall that I pointed out in the week 11 power rankings that APR seems to really like the Eagles, in spite of a pretty ordinary record, while the Broncos get no respect, in spite of (mostly) maintaining a winning record. The following is a closer look at why APR ranks the Eagles and Broncos the way it does.

As you know if you've read my description of how APR works, each team's power index is computed from power values computed for each game that team has played. Here is a table detailing the game powers for each game played by the Eagles and Broncos, for the week 12 power rankings:

Philadelphia Eagles Denver Broncos
won vs Rams
by 35
1.339 won @ Raiders
by 27
1.695
lost @ Cowboys
by 4
1.232 won vs Chargers
by 1
1.359
won vs Steelers
by 9
1.637 won vs Saints
by 2
1.399
lost @ Bears
by 4
1.231 lost @ Chiefs
by 14
0.807
lost vs Redskins
by 6
1.045 won vs Buccaneers
by 3
1.476
won @ 49ers
by 14
1.559 lost vs Jaguars
by 7
0.894
won vs Falcons
by 13
1.621 lost @ Patriots
by 34
0.996
won @ Seahawks
by 19
1.585 lost vs Dolphins
by 9
0.943
lost vs Giants
by 5
1.295 won @ Browns
by 4
1.421
tied @ Bengals 1.122 won @ Falcons
by 4
1.602
lost @ Ravens
by 29
1.077 lost vs Raiders
by 21
0.783

Looking at this table, one thing stands out: the Eagles win big and (except for the game at the Ravens) lose close; the Broncos lose big and win close.

The Broncos' losses have really hurt them. They've got 5 games with power values under 1.0, all relatively recent. On the other hand, the Eagles have 4 very strong game powers, 3 of them within the last 6 games (and, of course, the big win over the Cardinals is not included in this table, since week 13 is not complete at this writing).

This is exactly the kind of thing that APR was designed to emphasise. The Broncos close wins and blow-out losses are a pretty good indicator that with just a few more bad breaks, they could have a much worse record (the week 2 game against the Chargers comes immediately to mind).

The Eagles are on the other side of this argument. A successful goal-to-go push against the Bears, a 3rd-and-1 conversion against the Giants, One more made field goal against the Bengals... it's not hard to imagine an alternate series of events where the Eagles are 8-3 going into week 13, and right in the thick of the playoff hunt.

But—part of the problem with the Eagles is that this "almost made it" syndrome seems to be an on-going problem. Last year, in a game decided by 3 points, they muffed a couple punts, which the Packers turned into 10 points. In a game against the Bears, they lost a crucial fumble recovery on a play that (on a rule no one ever heard of before) got called a false start. A game against the Giants was lost because a last-second field goal hit the upright.

A few close games lost can be blamed on bad breaks. When the streak starts to stretch over two seasons, it's not hard to use this as the basis to make the case that the Eagles have some serious coaching issues...

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

NFL Week 13 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 13, based on the week 12 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except Dolphins @ Raiders, which is from footballlocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for week 13.

GameAPRSRSLine
Tennessee Titans @
Detroit Lions
Titans
ρ=1.4704
Titans
δ=21.18
Titans
-11
Baltimore Ravens @
Cincinnati Bengals
Ravens
ρ=1.3171
Ravens
δ=15.03
Ravens
-7
New York Giants @
Washington Redskins
Giants
ρ=1.2374
Giants
δ=10.81
Giants
-3½
Denver Broncos @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.2306
Jets
δ=10.83
Jets
-7½
Miami Dolphins @
St. Louis Rams
Dolphins
ρ=1.2236
Dolphins
δ=16.00
Dolphins
-8
Seattle Seahawks @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1591
Cowboys
δ=7.49
Cowboys
-13
Indianapolis Colts @
Cleveland Browns
Colts
ρ=1.1289
Colts
δ=4.38
Colts
-5
San Francisco 49ers @
Buffalo Bills
Bills
ρ=1.1265
Bills
δ=6.20
Bills
-7
Kansas City Chiefs @
Oakland Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.1019
Raiders
δ=2.52
Raiders
-3
Atlanta Falcons @
San Diego Chargers
Falcons
ρ=1.0695
Falcons
δ=1.79
Chargers
-5
New Orleans Saints @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0572
Buccaneers
δ=2.86
Buccaneers
-3½
Chicago Bears @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.0515
Bears
δ=0.04
Vikings
-3½
Jacksonville Jaguars @
Houston Texans
Texans
ρ=1.0445
Jaguars
δ=1.53
Texans
-3
Pittsburgh Steelers @
New England Patriots
Steelers
ρ=1.0234
Steelers
δ=5.31
Patriots
-1
Arizona Cardinals @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.0169
Eagles
δ=0.03
Eagles
-3
Carolina Panthers @
Green Bay Packers
Packers
ρ=1.0050
Packers
δ=0.78
Packers
-3

Comments:

  • Disagreements for Falcons @ Chargers, Bears @ Vikings, Texans @ Jaguars, Steelers @ Patriots.

  • Not even the line likes the Cardinals this week? A road game on a short week is notoriously difficult, but the Eagles have just looked awful the last couple of games. Donovan McNabb is going to have to play a lot better to get a win, short week or not.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)New York
Giants
10-11.5364
(LW × 1.009)
won by 8
at Cardinals
2 (↓1)Tennessee
Titans
10-11.4775
(LW × 0.939)
lost by 21
vs Jets
3 (-)Baltimore
Ravens
7-41.4762
(LW × 1.032)
won by 29
vs Eagles
4 (↑7)New York
Jets
8-31.4589
(LW × 1.102)
won by 21
at Titans
5 (↑1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
8-31.4049
(LW × 1.003)
won by 17
vs Bengals
6 (↓2)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
8-31.4047
(LW × 1.001)
won by 18
at Lions
7 (↑2)Indianapolis
Colts
7-41.3828
(LW × 1.029)
won by 3
at Chargers
8 (↑6)Atlanta
Falcons
7-41.3819
(LW × 1.054)
won by 17
vs Panthers
9 (↑9)New England
Patriots
7-41.3728
(LW × 1.077)
won by 20
at Dolphins
10 (↑2)Minnesota
Vikings
6-51.3704
(LW × 1.040)
won by 18
at Jaguars
11 (↓6)Green Bay
Packers
5-61.3482
(LW × 0.961)
lost by 22
at Saints
12 (↓4)Carolina
Panthers
8-31.3414
(LW × 0.985)
lost by 17
at Falcons
13 (↑8)New Orleans
Saints
6-51.3287
(LW × 1.066)
won by 22
vs Packers
14 (↓7)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-5-11.3215
(LW × 0.970)
lost by 29
at Ravens
15 (-)Chicago
Bears
6-51.3033
(LW × 1.017)
won by 24
at Rams
16 (↓6)Arizona
Cardinals
7-41.2995
(LW × 0.980)
lost by 8
vs Giants
17 (↓4)Dallas
Cowboys
7-41.2970
(LW × 0.987)
won by 13
vs 49ers
18 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
4-71.2921
(LW × 1.014)
lost by 3
vs Colts
19 (↓3)Miami
Dolphins
6-51.2551
(LW × 0.979)
lost by 20
vs Patriots
20 (↑5)Buffalo
Bills
6-51.2487
(LW × 1.051)
won by 23
at Chiefs
21 (↑3)Houston
Texans
4-71.2468
(LW × 1.050)
won by 10
at Browns
22 (-)Washington
Redskins
7-41.2416
(LW × 0.999)
won by 3
at Seahawks
23 (↓6)Cleveland
Browns
4-71.2249
(LW × 0.960)
lost by 10
vs Texans
24 (↓4)Jacksonville
Jaguars
4-71.1937
(LW × 0.946)
lost by 18
vs Vikings
25 (↑5)Oakland
Raiders
3-81.1930
(LW × 1.096)
won by 21
at Broncos
26 (↓3)Denver
Broncos
6-51.1856
(LW × 0.959)
lost by 21
vs Raiders
27 (-)Cincinnati
Bengals
1-9-11.1208
(LW × 0.984)
lost by 17
at Steelers
28 (↓2)Seattle
Seahawks
2-91.1190
(LW × 0.977)
lost by 3
vs Redskins
29 (↓1)San Francisco
49ers
3-81.1085
(LW × 0.995)
lost by 13
at Cowboys
30 (↓1)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-101.0827
(LW × 0.980)
lost by 23
vs Bills
31 (-)St. Louis
Rams
2-91.0257
(LW × 0.987)
lost by 24
vs Bears
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
0-111.0049
(LW × 0.990)
lost by 18
vs Buccaneers

Comments:

  • The Giants finally get to the top spot, thanks in part to the Jets' beat-down on the Titans. The Titans' lose 6.1% of their power index, and are now just a sliver above the Ravens.

  • Note that the Bucs' power actually did increase (a little) on their win over the Lions; just not enough to stay ahead of the Jets and Steelers.

  • The Patriots get a very good win over the Dolphins, and APR finally moves them up to the top 10.

  • The Redskins get another close win against a bad team. With the Giants and Ravens yet to play, they're probably not going to do better than 3-2 in their last 5. With the Cowboys, Panthers, and Falcons all at 7 or more wins, 10-6 (without the right tie-breakers) might not be enough to get an NFC wildcard spot this year.

  • Are the Chargers really out of the playoffs? APR still has them ranked over the Broncos, but looking at the Chargers remaining schedule, I'm not sure I see even 3 teams they can beat. The Broncos might not make it past 8 wins, but that's probably all it's going to take to win the AFC West this year.

  • Of the 8 teams that played in the divisional round of the playoffs last year (Jaguars, Patriots, Chargers, Colts, Seahawks, Packers, Giants and Cowboys), all but the Giants have suffered at least a moderate drop-off of strength from last year. Half of them (Jaguars, Chargers, Seahawks, and Packers) currently have a losing record.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Redskins (+10)
The Redskins had a chance to move up in APR's rankings this week. Even a 7-point win would've moved them up 3 spots. Somebody needs to tell ESPN that 3 points over a 2-9 opponent does not qualify as a "solid road win" for a team in the playoff hunt.

Cowboys (+8)
APR doesn't know about garbage-time points, so the Cowboys 13-point win looks closer than it was.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Ravens (-10)
ESPN and APR both hold the Ravens steady on their win over the Eagles. Maybe they're not as good as APR has them, but how can ESPN rank them below the Redskins?

Packers (-9)
APR drops the Packers out of the top 10. ESPN drops them 4 spots, partly because how damaging that loss was to the Packers playoff hopes.

Historically Bad Teams Watch

There could easily be 4 new teams in the "top" 50 at the end of this season. Unless the Rams get another win, they are guaranteed a spot in the top 30. The Chiefs and Bengals play in week 17, so at least one of these teams should get another win.

RankTeamNet Pts/GameW-LNext Week
11976 Buccaneers-20.500-14n/a
21972 Patriots-18.143-11n/a
32008 Rams-17.912-9vs Dolphins
41973 Oilers-17.711-13n/a
51967 Falcons-17.641-12n/a
...............
222008 Lions-13.910-11vs Titans
...............
342008 Chiefs-11.911-10@ Raiders
...............
382008 Bengals-11.641-9-1vs Ravens

The next 2008 team to appear on this list is the Raiders, who are currently #127.

Monday, November 24, 2008

NFL: Week 12 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 12.

Unanimous picks (7-4)

Correctly picked:

Bengals @ Steelers
Buccaneers @ Lions
Bears @ Rams
49ers @ Cowboys
Giants @ Cardinals
Redskins @ Seahawks
Bills @ Chiefs

Not so much:

Jets @ Titans
The Jets just flat-out were the better team on Sunday. The Titans' strength has always been their defense, but they couldn't stop the Jets, and seem to be worn down by the 4th quarter.

Raiders @ Broncos
Rumors of a Broncos turn-around are greatly exaggerated. The defense gave up 157 yards rushing, the offense gave up an interception and a fumble, and the Raiders took advantage. The Broncos are now 3-6 when they give up 24+ points.

Texans @ Browns
The Browns had 3 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles. They only converted on 3rd down twice. The Texans didn't exactly light things up, but the Browns' poor play meant they didn't have to.

Patriots @ Dolphins
Matt Cassel is finally figuring out that Randy Moss (125 yds, 3 TD) is a good reciever to look for.

Split Picks (APR 3-2) (SRS 2-3) (Line 3-2)

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)
What happened to the Packers defense? That was just ugly. The good news is, the Packers won't have to worry about losing another playoff game at Lambeau this year.

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
Last year, I think the Chargers played a little over their heads, especially in the playoffs. This year, Chargers aren't nearly as good. The Colts aren't as good as they were last year either, but the drop-off isn't as bad.

Eagles (SRS) @ Ravens (APR, Line)
What was Andy Reid thinking would happen putting an inexperienced QB up against one of the best defenses in the league? With the Cardinals and Giants coming up, the going isn't getting much easier, either.

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Jaguars (Line)
The Jaguars are another team (like the Chargers) that have had a major drop-off from last year. The Vikings have their problems, but they're still better than the Jaguars.

Panthers (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
The Panthers continue their slide. It doesn't get any easier for them, either, with upcoming games against the Packers, Bucs, Broncos, and Giants. At their current level of play, Carolina might not have more than 1 or 2 wins left on their schedule.

Standings:

This weekOverall
APR:10-6107-52-1
SRS: 9-7101-58-1
Line:10-6107-51-2
Unanimous: 7-4 82-30

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

NCAA: APR's top 30+, Week 13

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.

Rankings will be updated when that game is final, and when BCS standings are out. Update: done


RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Florida
BCS=4
10-11.7105
(LW × 0.968)
won by 51
vs Citadel
2 (-)Texas
BCS=2
10-11.7055
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
3 (↑1)Oklahoma
BCS=3
10-11.7002
(LW × 1.045)
won by 44
vs Texas-Tech
4 (↑1)Penn-St
BCS=8
11-11.6529
(LW × 1.019)
won by 31
vs Michigan-St
5 (↑1)USC
BCS=5
9-11.5950
(LW × 0.997)
Bye
6 (↓3)Texas-Tech
BCS=7
10-11.5940
(LW × 0.954)
lost by 44
at Oklahoma
7 (↑2)Alabama
BCS=1
11-01.5672
(LW × 1.018)
Bye
8 (↓1)Ohio-St
BCS=10
10-21.5584
(LW × 0.995)
won by 35
vs Michigan
9 (↑1)Boise-St
BCS=9
11-01.5538
(LW × 1.011)
won by 7
at Nevada
10 (↑2)Utah
BCS=6
12-01.5497
(LW × 1.040)
won by 24
vs BYU
11 (↑3)TCU
BCS=14
10-21.5127
(LW × 1.022)
won by 34
vs Air-Force
12 (↑3)Ball-St
BCS=15
11-01.5037
(LW × 1.017)
won by 7
at Cent-Michigan
13 (↑17)Florida-St
BCS=20
8-31.4975
(LW × 1.074)
won by 34
at Maryland
14 (↓3)Missouri
BCS=13
9-21.4865
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
15 (↑3)Boston-Coll
BCS=21
8-31.4810
(LW × 1.022)
won by 3
at Wake-Forest
16 (↑4)Cincinnati
BCS=16
9-21.4750
(LW × 1.023)
won by 7
vs Pittsburgh
17 (↓4)Georgia
BCS=11
9-21.4744
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
18 (↑3)West-Virginia7-31.4724
(LW × 1.031)
won by 14
at Louisville
19 (↑9)Mississippi7-41.4701
(LW × 1.049)
won by 18
at LSU
20 (↓1)Rutgers6-51.4629
(LW × 1.012)
won by 27
vs Army
21 (↓4)Oklahoma-St
BCS=12
9-21.4627
(LW × 0.997)
Bye
22 (↑4)Iowa8-41.4530
(LW × 1.034)
won by 55
at Minnesota
23 (↑2)Oregon-St
BCS=17
8-31.4333
(LW × 1.017)
won by 2
at Arizona
24 (↓16)North-Carolina7-41.4320
(LW × 0.924)
lost by 31
vs NC-State
25 (↓9)Michigan-St
BCS=19
9-31.4282
(LW × 0.974)
lost by 31
at Penn-St
26 (↑1)Nebraska7-41.4011
(LW × 0.997)
Bye
27 (↓3)Pittsburgh
BCS=25
7-31.3975
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 7
at Cincinnati
28 (↑19)Georgia-Tech
BCS=22
8-31.3885
(LW × 1.058)
won by 18
vs Miami-FL
29 (↓6)BYU
BCS=18
10-21.3871
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 24
at Utah
30 (↓1)Virginia-Tech7-41.3855
(LW × 0.989)
won by 11
vs Duke
31 (↑1)South-Carolina7-41.3830
(LW × 1.007)
Bye
32 (↑21)Clemson6-51.3739
(LW × 1.070)
won by 10
at Virginia
33 (↓2)Connecticut7-41.3726
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 4
at South-Florida
34 (↓1)Oregon
BCS=23
8-31.3644
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
35 (↑6)Northwestern
BCS=24
9-31.3594
(LW × 1.028)
won by 17
vs Illinois

Comments:

  • Texas is just barely below #1 Florida. But the Longhorns have 4-7 Texas A&M left to play; even a blow-out win will likely drop them so far they would need Florida and Oklahoma both to lose to have any chance at the top spot in the week 15 standings.

  • What happened to Texas Tech's ability to play run defense? That was brutal. It seemed like every time I looked at the game, Oklahoma was getting another big run on them. The Sooners finished with 299 yards rushing. Two players rushed for more than 100 yards. A stunning collapse for the defense of a team formerly ranked #2 by the BCS and #3 by APR.

  • If Alabama loses to Florida December 6th... What happens if Utah, Boise State, and Ball State are the only ranked unbeaten teams? If the NCAA had a playoff system...

  • Seriously—LSU is out of the top 25 now, right? Update: right.

  • After starting 1-5, Rutgers has gone on a 5-game winning streak to make it to 6 wins and bowl elegibility. Especially if they win their final game vs Louisville, the BCS needs to find a bowl game for these guys.

  • Of course Wisconsin nearly choked on their Cal Poly-flavored cupcake, needing overtime to get to their 7th win of the season. (On the other hand, Cal Poly finished their season 8-2, so maybe they were not as much a cupcake as the Badgers might have hoped.)

Friday, November 21, 2008

NFL: Worst (and Best) divisions since 1960

Recently, Football Outsiders posted an article pondering the Worst Division Ever. The actual article (on ESPN's site) uses non-division records and combined net points; no attempt is made to put the divisions in order.

APR already gives a way to compute a power index for individual teams. This can easily be extended. Division power can be computed by averaging teams power index on a per-division basis.

By computing the division powers at the end of each season, APR provides a numerical ordering of divisions, much like the weekly team power rankings.

Some Disclaimers

I only have score data going back to the 1960 season, so the ranking of those 1930's divisions will languish in obscurity.

It should also be noted there's been a lot of changes in the NFL since 1960: the merger of the AFL and NFL, the introduction of a number of new teams, the introduction of sudden-death overtime for regular season games, playoff seeding, the salary cap and free agency, the division realignment in 2002, and rule changes too numerous to mention.

Comparison of division (or team) power indexes from year to year (or between the AFL and NFL prior to the merger) should not be taken too seriously.

APR's Worst Divisions, 1960-2008 (week 11)

Of course, I'm not going to let any of that stop me. Here is the top 20+ worst divisions since 1960, including the 2008 season up to week 11. Obviously (right?) the end-of-season rankings for the 2008 divisions are subject to change.

Here are the 20 worst (and a few more) divisions in the data set, ordered from worst to... not worst. Hopefully the table is pretty self explanatory; divisions marked with a '*' were mentioned in the linked article.

RankYearDivisionPower
11969 NFL Century 1.1406*
22007 NFC West 1.1542
32004 NFC West 1.1544*
41991 AFC East 1.1565
52008NFC West 1.1565*
61965 NFL East 1.1594
71979 NFC Central 1.1662
81982 NFC West 1.1700
92008AFC West1.1760*
101982 AFC Central 1.1765
111976 NFC West 1.1770
121998 AFC Central 1.1789
131975 NFC West 1.1790
141984 AFC East 1.1800
151985 AFC Central 1.1813
161961 AFL West 1.1821
172002 NFC North 1.1826*
181976 AFC East 1.1847
192007 NFC South 1.1848
201967 AFL East 1.1866*

Other divisions mentioned:
271969AFL East1.2023*
731968AFL East1.2342*
761979 NFC West 1.2367*
1091984 AFC Central 1.2528*
1112008NFC North1.2541*

By APR's measure, the 1969 NFL Century is the worst of the lot by a pretty significant margin. The 2007 NFC West doesn't look that bad from the Fooball Outsider's metric (non-division record was 14-26 (35%) with a combined net points of -213; marginally better than those mentioned). But both the Rams and 49ers had miserable seasons in 2007 (very much like 2008, so far) that are (perhaps) not completely reflected in their records or net points.

APR's Best Divisions, 1960-2008 (week 11)

Of course, the same data set yields the best divisions, too. Here are the top 10 divisions, ranked from the best, descending.

RankYearDivisionPowerPlayoff Notes
11965NFL West1.4513Packers won NFL Championship
22004AFC East1.4441Patriots won Super Bowl XXIX
32007NFC East1.4356Giants won Super Bowl XLII
42006AFC East1.4154Patriots lost AFC CG
52006AFC South1.4104Colts won Superbowl XLI
61978AFC Central1.3953Steelers won Superbowl XIII
71979AFC West1.3919Chargers, Broncos 1-and-done
81979AFC Central1.3916Steelers won Superbowl XIV
91970NFC Central1.3896Vikings, Lions 1-and-done
101992NFC East1.3865Cowboys won Super Bowl XXVII

The highest-ranked 2008 divisions are the NFC East (currently ranked #20), and the AFC South (currently ranked #34). I have another post coming that looks at the correlation of division power and Super Bowl winners. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

NFL Week 12 Game Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 12, based on the week 11 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Detroit Lions
Buccaneers
ρ=1.3824
Buccaneers
δ=18.41
Buccaneers
-8½
Chicago Bears @
St. Louis Rams
Bears
ρ=1.2332
Bears
δ=19.25
Bears
-8½
Cincinnati Bengals @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.2290
Steelers
δ=14.48
Steelers
-10½
New York Jets @
Tennessee Titans
Titans
ρ=1.1884
Titans
δ=8.62
Titans
-5
San Francisco 49ers @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1791
Cowboys
δ=7.37
Cowboys
-10
New York Giants @
Arizona Cardinals
Giants
ρ=1.1486
Giants
δ=7.25
Giants
-3
Oakland Raiders @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.1354
Broncos
δ=7.21
Broncos
-9½
Green Bay Packers @
New Orleans Saints
Packers
ρ=1.1254
Packers
δ=7.03
Saints
-2½
Washington Redskins @
Seattle Seahawks
Redskins
ρ=1.0848
Redskins
δ=6.47
Redskins
-3½
Buffalo Bills @
Kansas City Chiefs
Bills
ρ=1.0755
Bills
δ=6.65
Bills
-3
Houston Texans @
Cleveland Browns
Browns
ρ=1.0739
Browns
δ=3.62
Browns
-3
Indianapolis Colts @
San Diego Chargers
Colts
ρ=1.0540
Colts
δ=1.19
Chargers
-2½
Philadelphia Eagles @
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0496
Eagles
δ=0.73
Ravens
-1½
Minnesota Vikings @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Vikings
ρ=1.0434
Vikings
δ=1.13
Jaguars
-2½
Carolina Panthers @
Atlanta Falcons
Panthers
ρ=1.0379
Panthers
δ=2.75
Falcons
-1
New England Patriots @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.0051
Dolphins
δ=0.08
Dolphins
-2

Comments:

  • Disagreement on Packers @ Saints, Colts @ Chargers, Eagles @ Ravens, Vikings @ Jaguars, and Panthers @ Falcons.

  • Packers @ Saints should be an intersesting matchup: Saints #1 pass offense vs Packers #3 pass defense; Packers #11 pass offense vs Saints' #26 pass defense. Seems like a situation that favors the Packers to me.

  • I'm a little surprised the line is going against Indianapolis, too. The Colts seem to be turning things around, and the Chargers... have not. The Chargers are probably out of the post season if they lose this game.

  • On the other hand, they way the Panthers' offense has been playing lately, it's not much of a suprise the line isn't taking them to beat the Falcons. If the Panthers' problems are as bad as they seem, it won't take long for them to slide out of playoff contention unless they fix it quick.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Tennessee
Titans
10-01.5737
(LW × 0.998)
won by 10
at Jaguars
2 (↑1)New York
Giants
9-11.5231
(LW × 1.043)
won by 20
vs Ravens
3 (↓1)Baltimore
Ravens
6-41.4298
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 20
at Giants
4 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
7-31.4031
(LW × 0.996)
won by 6
vs Vikings
5 (↑5)Green Bay
Packers
5-51.4022
(LW × 1.033)
won by 34
vs Bears
6 (↓1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
7-31.4004
(LW × 0.997)
won by 1
vs Chargers
7 (↓1)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-4-11.3623
(LW × 0.973)
tied
at Bengals
8 (↓1)Carolina
Panthers
8-21.3613
(LW × 0.973)
won by 9
vs Lions
9 (↓1)Indianapolis
Colts
6-41.3433
(LW × 0.982)
won by 6
vs Texans
10 (↑2)Arizona
Cardinals
7-31.3261
(LW × 0.998)
won by 6
at Seahawks
11 (↑2)New York
Jets
7-31.3242
(LW × 1.011)
won by 3
at Patriots
12 (↑2)Minnesota
Vikings
5-51.3172
(LW × 1.007)
lost by 6
at Buccaneers
13 (↑4)Dallas
Cowboys
6-41.3139
(LW × 1.027)
won by 4
at Redskins
14 (↓5)Atlanta
Falcons
6-41.3116
(LW × 0.963)
lost by 4
vs Broncos
15 (↓4)Chicago
Bears
5-51.2820
(LW × 0.957)
lost by 34
at Packers
16 (-)Miami
Dolphins
6-41.2814
(LW × 0.985)
won by 2
vs Raiders
17 (↑4)Cleveland
Browns
4-61.2757
(LW × 1.028)
won by 2
at Bills
18 (↓3)New England
Patriots
6-41.2749
(LW × 0.975)
lost by 3
vs Jets
19 (↓1)San Diego
Chargers
4-61.2745
(LW × 1.003)
lost by 1
at Steelers
20 (↓1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
4-61.2624
(LW × 1.002)
lost by 10
vs Titans
21 (↑2)New Orleans
Saints
5-51.2460
(LW × 1.029)
won by 10
at Chiefs
22 (↓2)Washington
Redskins
6-41.2431
(LW × 0.987)
lost by 4
vs Cowboys
23 (↑1)Denver
Broncos
6-41.2363
(LW × 1.045)
won by 4
at Falcons
24 (↑1)Houston
Texans
3-71.1879
(LW × 1.015)
lost by 6
at Colts
25 (↓3)Buffalo
Bills
5-51.1878
(LW × 0.977)
lost by 2
vs Browns
26 (-)Seattle
Seahawks
2-81.1459
(LW × 1.000)
lost by 6
vs Cardinals
27 (↑1)Cincinnati
Bengals
1-8-11.1395
(LW × 1.048)
tied
vs Eagles
28 (↑3)San Francisco
49ers
3-71.1143
(LW × 1.046)
won by 19
vs Rams
29 (↓2)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-91.1044
(LW × 0.974)
lost by 10
vs Saints
30 (↓1)Oakland
Raiders
2-81.0889
(LW × 1.011)
lost by 2
at Dolphins
31 (↓1)St. Louis
Rams
2-81.0396
(LW × 0.967)
lost by 19
at 49ers
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
0-101.0150
(LW × 1.017)
lost by 9
at Panthers

Comments:

  • The Giants get a big win over the Ravens, and finally get to the #2 spot. If you look at the power index values, it's the Titans, Giants, and everyone else.

  • The Packers are now ranked above all their remaining opponents. If APR is right, they should come close to a 6-0 finish, and a lot of momentum going into the playoffs.

  • What's going on with the Panthers? For the second week in a row, they squeaked out a win over a very weak opponent. They've got a very tough schedule left to play, with games against the Packers and Bucs. The Buccaneers' schedule looks easier; they could easily take the lead in the division by the end of the season.

  • The Eagles seem to have an uncanny ability to hit APR's sweet spot, in spite of an unremarkable record. Last year, they finished as the highest ranked team not in the playoffs. The way things are going, they could take that again.

  • The NFC North is the only division without a team with a winning record. Three divisions (AFC East, NFC East, and the NFC South) have all teams at or above 0.500.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Redskins (+13)
Washington is (2-3) in their last 5 games. ESPN, it's time to drop them out of your top 10.

Patriots (+8)
ESPN and APR both drop the Patriots 3 spots this week. Other than their week 2 victory over the Jets, the Patriots don't have much in the way of solid wins.

Broncos (+8)
The Broncos seem to be the anti-Eagles of the APR system: they never seem to rise very far, in spite of (for the most part) maintaining a winning record. They had an impressive road win against the Falcons, so maybe things have turned around for them.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Packers (-11)
Can a 5-5 team be #5 in the power rankings? They are 4-1 3-2 in their last 5, and haven't lost a game by more than 3 points since week 4. If they can solve their run defense issues, they should be able to keep a spot in the top 10 right through the playoffs.

Ravens (-10)
The Ravens fall quite a way on their loss to the Giants, but the #4 Buccaneers are so far back, it wasn't enough to cost them more than one spot.

Eagles (-10)
On the tie, APR only drops the Eagles by 1, while ESPN drops them 4.

Vikings (-9)
The Vikings are 3-2 in their last 5, including a critical divisional win over the Packers. They haven't lost by more than 7 since week 4.

Historically Bad Teams Watch

The Rams' 19-point loss now puts them at -17.30 net points per game for the season, which puts them at #4 since 1970. But with only 6 games left, their remaining losses would have to be by more than 25 points (on average) to overtake the '76 Buccaneers.

The Lions 9-point loss moves them further away from the brink to -13.50 (#24), and the Bengals' tie puts them at -11.10 (#43).

Monday, November 17, 2008

NFL Week 11 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 11.

Unanimous picks (9-1-1)

Correctly picked:

Lions @ Panthers
Titans @ Jaguars
Raiders @ Dolphins
Texans @ Colts
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Chargers @ Steelers
Vikings @ Buccaneers
Saints @ Chiefs
Cowboys @ Redskins

Not so much:

Broncos @ Falcons
Are the Broncos turning things around? They are 3-0 when the defense holds their opponent to 20 or fewer points. The problem has been that they have 5 games where they gave up 30+ points...

Eagles @ Bengals
The Eagles didn't win because McNabb threw 3 interceptions, and the Eagles rushed for a combined 67 yards. With the Bengals and Eagles combining for just seven 3rd-down conversions, it's something of a wonder this wasn't a 0-0 tie.

Split Picks (APR 3-2) (SRS 4-1) (Line 3-2)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)
The Browns' defense comes up with 3 interceptions and a fumble recovery. And somehow they let it come down to a couple of long field goals (one made, the other missed). I suppose the Browns will take wins any way they come, but that was ugly.

Bears (SRS) @ Packers (APR, Line)
The Packers played their best game of the year so far, and the Bears played their worst. The Bears couldn't stop the Packers, and couldn't get started on offense. Kyle Orton will take some of the blame, but even healthy, that's not an offense that can get many wins when they have to get to 38 points.

Ravens (APR) @ Giants (SRS, Line)
Maybe APR was overrating the Ravens... but since when to they give up 207 yards rushing? Add in a lack-luster day for rookie QB Joe Flacco, and that's all it takes.

Rams (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, Line)
Is Singletary making a difference for the 49ers? One blow-out win against the Rams isn't the strongest proof in the world.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Patriots (Line)
A close game, as advertised. Both teams clearly still have major issues. The Jets were up 24-6 at one point, and then gave up 18 points before their next score. The Patriots gained 525 yards, scored 31 points, only lost one turnover, and still couldn't win. Both teams may make it to the playoffs; I'll be surprised if either one survives past the Divisional round.

Standings:

This weekOverall
APR:12-3-197-46-1
SRS:13-2-192-51-1
Line:12-3-197-45-2
Unanimous: 9-1-175-26-1

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 12

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.

BCS Rankings will be added when they are out (and I see them).


RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Florida
BCS=4
9-11.7676
(LW × 1.000)
won by 50
vs South-Carolina
2 (↑1)Texas
BCS=3
10-11.7067
(LW × 1.012)
won by 28
at Kansas
3 (↓1)Texas-Tech
BCS=2
10-01.6713
(LW × 0.988)
Bye
4 (↑1)Oklahoma
BCS=5
9-11.6264
(LW × 0.987)
Bye
5 (↓1)Penn-St
BCS=8
10-11.6215
(LW × 0.966)
won by 27
vs Indiana
6 (-)USC
BCS=6
9-11.6005
(LW × 1.010)
won by 22
at Stanford
7 (↑3)Ohio-St
BCS=10
9-21.5668
(LW × 1.012)
won by 10
at Illinois
8 (↓1)North-Carolina
BCS=22
7-31.5503
(LW × 0.985)
lost by 2
at Maryland
9 (↓1)Alabama
BCS=1
11-01.5389
(LW × 0.983)
won by 25
vs Mississippi-St
10 (↓1)Boise-St
BCS=9
10-01.5368
(LW × 0.992)
won by 35
at Idaho
11 (↑1)Missouri
BCS=13
9-21.4922
(LW × 0.994)
won by 32
at Iowa-St
12 (↓1)Utah
BCS=7
11-01.4904
(LW × 0.992)
won by 49
at San-Diego-St
13 (-)Georgia
BCS=11
9-21.4802
(LW × 0.989)
won by 4
at Auburn
14 (↑1)TCU
BCS=16
9-21.4798
(LW × 1.008)
Bye
15 (↓1)Ball-St
BCS=17
10-01.4783
(LW × 0.990)
won by 15
at Miami-OH
16 (↑1)Michigan-St
BCS=15
9-21.4668
(LW × 1.005)
Bye
17 (↓1)Oklahoma-St
BCS=12
9-21.4665
(LW × 1.001)
won by 13
at Colorado
18 (↑17)Boston-Coll7-31.4488
(LW × 1.065)
won by 10
at Florida-St
19 (↑8)Rutgers5-51.4452
(LW × 1.039)
won by 33
at South-Florida
20 (↑1)Cincinnati
BCS=19
8-21.4418
(LW × 1.001)
won by 8
at Louisville
21 (↑2)West-Virginia6-31.4278
(LW × 1.000)
Bye
22 (-)Miami-FL
BCS=23
7-31.4260
(LW × 0.994)
won by 2
vs Virginia-Tech
23 (↑14)BYU
BCS=14
10-11.4248
(LW × 1.066)
won by 14
at Air-Force
24 (↓4)Pittsburgh
BCS=20
7-21.4222
(LW × 0.985)
Bye
25 (↑6)Oregon-St
BCS=21
7-31.4088
(LW × 1.024)
won by 13
vs California
26 (↓8)Iowa7-41.4054
(LW × 0.967)
won by 5
vs Purdue
27 (↑2)Nebraska7-41.4049
(LW × 1.015)
won by 28
at Kansas-St
28 (↓4)Mississippi6-41.4021
(LW × 0.995)
won by 59
vs LA-Monroe
29 (↓4)Virginia-Tech6-41.4009
(LW × 0.998)
lost by 2
at Miami-FL
30 (↓11)Florida-St7-31.3941
(LW × 0.960)
lost by 10
vs Boston-Coll

Other notable teams:
31 (↑1)Connecticut7-31.3919
(LW × 1.019)
won by 25
at Syracuse
33 (↑7)Oregon
BCS=24
8-31.3605
(LW × 1.024)
won by 10
vs Arizona
34 (↑13)Maryland
BCS=25
7-31.3589
(LW × 1.041)
won by 2
vs North-Carolina
35 (↓2)Wisconsin6-51.3498
(LW × 0.990)
won by 3
vs Minnesota
36 (↑13)Vanderbilt6-41.3391
(LW × 1.032)
won by 7
at Kentucky
38 (↑5)LSU
BCS=18
7-31.3283
(LW × 1.008)
won by 9
vs Troy

Comments:

  • #2 Texas only has one game left against a very weak Texas A&M squad. Unless the Gators lose, I don't think the Longhorns can get back to APR's #1 spot. And unless Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma or Bayor, the Longhorns probably won't finish in the #2 spot, either.

  • Rutgers continues to claw their way up APR's rankings. One more win to get bowl elegible. If they do get invited to a bowl game, their opponent is likely in for a nasty surprise...

  • Wisconsin gets their 6th win of the season, and with just Cal Poly left, should make it to 7 wins for the season. .

  • LSU was behind 28 points in the 3rd quarter. In the words of Dennis Green, Troy let them off the hook.

  • LSU still has Mississippi (APR #28) and Arkansas (APR #62) left. Given the way they nearly tanked against Troy (APR #72), there's no guarantee they'll win either game. Will LSU get a bowl game if they don't make it to 9 wins?..

  • And LSU moves up 2 spots!? Wow.

  • Let's play "Coach the Washington Huskies!" You're down 27-7. 8:11 left in the 4th quarter. You have 4th and 24 from just past the midfield line. Do you (a) Go for it, on the grounds that there's really very little to lose, or (b) punt? The Huskies punted; it should be no surprise that they are 0-10 this season.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

NFL Week 11 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 11, based on the week 10 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (excepte Bears @ Packers, taken from footballlocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Detroit Lions @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.4015
Panthers
δ=19.53
Panthers
-14
Philadelphia Eagles @
Cincinnati Bengals
Eagles
ρ=1.2876
Eagles
δ=16.20
Eagles
-9
Tennessee Titans @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Titans
ρ=1.2515
Titans
δ=11.30
Titans
-3
Oakland Raiders @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.2085
Dolphins
δ=11.64
Dolphins
-10½
Houston Texans @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1691
Colts
δ=6.99
Colts
-8½
Arizona Cardinals @
Seattle Seahawks
Cardinals
ρ=1.1589
Cardinals
δ=11.06
Cardinals
-3
Denver Broncos @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1520
Falcons
δ=8.34
Falcons
-6
San Diego Chargers @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1063
Steelers
δ=6.85
Steelers
-4½
Minnesota Vikings @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0768
Buccaneers
δ=4.39
Buccaneers
-3½
New Orleans Saints @
Kansas City Chiefs
Saints
ρ=1.0684
Saints
δ=9.52
Saints
-5
Cleveland Browns @
Buffalo Bills
Browns
ρ=1.0207
Browns
δ=2.05
Bills
-5
Dallas Cowboys @
Washington Redskins
Cowboys
ρ=1.0155
Cowboys
δ=0.01
Cowboys
-2
Chicago Bears @
Green Bay Packers
Packers
ρ=1.0129
Bears
δ=2.13
Packers
-4
Baltimore Ravens @
New York Giants
Ravens
ρ=1.0097
Giants
δ=2.00
Giants
-6½
St. Louis Rams @
San Francisco 49ers
Rams
ρ=1.0092
49ers
δ=8.13
49ers
-6½
New York Jets @
New England Patriots
Jets
ρ=1.0021
Jets
δ=2.98
Patriots
-3½

Comments:

  • Lots of disagreements this week: Browns @ Bills, Packers @ Bears, Ravens @ Giants, Rams @ 49ers, and Jets @ Patriots.

  • I'm surprised the line is going with the Packers. Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but the Bears seem like the kind of team (strong defense, run oriented offense) that have been troubling the Packers lately. I'd love to be wrong on this—a Packer loss here would make it much harder to reach the playoffs.

  • The Cardinals have a commanding lead in the NFC West, but still have to play the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, and Patriots.

  • The Bottom 5 matchups are all pretty close by APR's measure.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Tennessee
Titans
9-01.5768
(LW × 1.032)
won by 7
at Bears
2 (↑1)Baltimore
Ravens
6-31.4748
(LW × 1.018)
won by 28
at Texans
3 (↑1)New York
Giants
8-11.4605
(LW × 1.009)
won by 5
at Eagles
4 (↑3)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
6-31.4090
(LW × 1.005)
Bye
5 (↓3)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-31.4053
(LW × 0.960)
lost by 4
vs Colts
6 (↓1)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-41.4000
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 5
vs Giants
7 (↓1)Carolina
Panthers
7-21.3985
(LW × 0.992)
won by 11
at Raiders
8 (↑6)Indianapolis
Colts
5-41.3683
(LW × 1.051)
won by 4
at Steelers
9 (↑2)Atlanta
Falcons
6-31.3625
(LW × 1.020)
won by 14
vs Saints
10 (-)Green Bay
Packers
4-51.3575
(LW × 0.997)
lost by 1
at Vikings
11 (↓2)Chicago
Bears
5-41.3402
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 7
vs Titans
12 (↓4)Arizona
Cardinals
6-31.3284
(LW × 0.960)
won by 5
vs 49ers
13 (↑4)New York
Jets
6-31.3099
(LW × 1.014)
won by 44
vs Rams
14 (↓1)Minnesota
Vikings
5-41.3085
(LW × 1.004)
won by 1
vs Packers
15 (↑5)New England
Patriots
6-31.3071
(LW × 1.037)
won by 10
vs Bills
16 (↓4)Miami
Dolphins
5-41.3010
(LW × 0.993)
won by 2
vs Seahawks
17 (↓1)Dallas
Cowboys
5-41.2791
(LW × 0.988)
Bye
18 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
4-51.2703
(LW × 0.995)
won by 1
vs Chiefs
19 (↑4)Jacksonville
Jaguars
4-51.2600
(LW × 1.027)
won by 24
at Lions
20 (↓5)Washington
Redskins
6-31.2595
(LW × 0.971)
Bye
21 (↓3)Cleveland
Browns
3-61.2407
(LW × 0.966)
lost by 4
vs Broncos
22 (-)Buffalo
Bills
5-41.2156
(LW × 0.978)
lost by 10
at Patriots
23 (↓2)New Orleans
Saints
4-51.2109
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 14
at Falcons
24 (↑2)Denver
Broncos
5-41.1827
(LW × 1.053)
won by 4
at Browns
25 (↓1)Houston
Texans
3-61.1703
(LW × 0.965)
lost by 28
vs Ravens
26 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
2-71.1463
(LW × 1.019)
lost by 2
at Dolphins
27 (↑1)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-81.1335
(LW × 1.032)
lost by 1
at Chargers
28 (↑1)Cincinnati
Bengals
1-81.0873
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
29 (↑1)Oakland
Raiders
2-71.0765
(LW × 1.005)
lost by 11
vs Panthers
30 (↓3)St. Louis
Rams
2-71.0753
(LW × 0.968)
lost by 44
at Jets
31 (↑1)San Francisco
49ers
2-71.0655
(LW × 1.033)
lost by 5
at Cardinals
32 (↓1)Detroit
Lions
0-90.9979
(LW × 0.953)
lost by 24
vs Jaguars

Comments:

  • In spite of some impressive recent wins, the Giants are still being held down by the weak teams they've played (Rams, Bengals, Seahawks, 49ers are a combined 7-29). Still, they could've taken second place in the rankings if they had beat the Eagles by 7 points.

  • It says a lot about how bad the Raiders are that they couldn't beat the Panthers, in spite of the fact that Jake Delhomme threw 4 interceptions and completed just 7 passes (to his own receivers). When the Panthers play a bad game, they don't go for half-measures...

  • Cardinals lose 4% power, and drop 4 spots. Sometimes, dropping a team on a close win against a bad team is exactly the right thing to do.

  • Once again, the Broncos are the lowest-ranked team with a winning record. They might not finish with much more than 8 wins this year, but the way the rest of the AFC West is playing, that might be enough to win the division.

  • The Chargers improve to 1-2 on games decided by last-second, desperation plays. They are presently ranked above the fore-mentioned Broncos, but I wonder if that will last beyond upcoming games against the Steelers, Colts, Falcons, and Buccaneers.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Redskins (+15)
A lot of the Redskins' opponents lost this weekend, which caused APR to drop them 5 spots on their bye. Comments from last week still hold.

Patriots (+8)
APR moves the Patriots up 5 on their win over the Bills, but so does ESPN. Upcoming games against the Jets, Dolphins and Steelers should resolve who the Patriots are this year.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Packers (-11)
APR is giving the Packers the benefit of the doubt for some close road losses. But they are ranked above 10(!) teams with winning records. ESPN says "Something is missing this season in Green Bay". The name of that something is a run defense. APR will pick the Packers to beat the Bears next week, but I'll be really surprised if that actually happens.

Ravens (-10)
The Ravens beat up on a pretty bad Texans team. They've got the Giants next, which should finally resolve the #2/#3 issue once and for all.

Historically Bad Teams Watch

With the Rams blow-out loss to the Jets this week, they are now averaging -17.11 net points per game this season, which is good for 5th-worst place since 1970, just ahead of the 4th-worst 1981 Colts, who averaged -17.12 net points per game.

Also worth mentioning: Lions are at -14.00/game (#21), Bengals are at -12.33/game (#30), and the Raiders are at -11.67/game (#38).

Monday, November 10, 2008

NFL Week 10 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 10.

Unanimous picks (9-2)

Correctly picked:

Jaguars @ Lions
Ravens @ Texans
Seahawks @ Dolphins
Rams @ Jets
Titans @ Bears
Saints @ Falcons
Panthers @ Raiders
Chiefs @ Chargers
49ers @ Cardinals

(49ers snatch defeat from the jaws of victory; Singletary's pants explode)

Not so much:

Broncos @ Browns
The Browns had this game. Going into the 4th quarter, they were ahead 23-13, and the Broncos hadn't done better than a couple field goals since the first quarter. But then: 3 Broncos' touchdowns, including a 93-yard touchdown pass. Brady Quinn was able to rally the Browns offense for one matching touchdown, but not two.

Somewhere, Bernie Kosar helps himself to an extra-strength antacid.

Colts @ Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger threw 3 interceptions. The Colts converted first two into touchdowns; the last one was on the final play of the game.

It's not really to the Colts credit that the Steelers came as close as they did to winning anyway.

Split Picks (APR 2-1) (SRS 1-2) (Line 2-1)

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
Neither offense had anything to brag about in this game. Rodgers was harassed all game, to the point of giving up two safeties (huge in a game decided by 1 point). Frerotte was intercepted 3 times, which allowed the Packers to stay in the game.

But the Packers defense could not stop Adrian Peterson, and in the end that, as much as anything, made the difference.

Bills (SRS) @ Patriots (APR, Line)
SRS does not discount early games, so perhaps it liked the Bills based on early season successes. Early on, the Bills looked to be running away with the AFC East.

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
The Eagles hung in there to the end, but the Giants ran the ball (they were averaging more than 6 yards per carry at one point); the Eagles could not, including on their final attempt at a 3rd-and-1 (and then 4th-and-1) conversion.

Standings:

This weekOverall
APR:11-385-43
SRS:10-479-49
Line:11-385-42-1
Unanimous: 9-266-25

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

NCAA: APR's top 30+, Week 11

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.

BCS Rankings will be added when they are out (and I see them).


RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Florida
BCS=4
8-11.7670
(LW × 1.001)
won by 28
at Vanderbilt
2 (↑2)Texas-Tech
BCS=2
10-01.6916
(LW × 1.021)
won by 36
vs Oklahoma-St
3 (↓1)Texas
BCS=3
9-11.6869
(LW × 0.982)
won by 24
vs Baylor
4 (↓1)Penn-St
BCS=8
9-11.6792
(LW × 0.988)
lost by 1
at Iowa
5 (-)Oklahoma
BCS=5
9-11.6484
(LW × 0.996)
won by 38
at Texas-A&M
6 (↑1)USC
BCS=6
8-11.5853
(LW × 1.012)
won by 14
vs California
7 (↑2)North-Carolina
BCS=16
7-21.5740
(LW × 1.021)
won by 21
vs Georgia-Tech
8 (↓2)Alabama
BCS=1
10-01.5656
(LW × 0.983)
won by 6
at LSU
9 (↓1)Boise-St
BCS=9
9-01.5497
(LW × 0.998)
won by 35
vs Utah-St
10 (↑2)Ohio-St
BCS=11
8-21.5487
(LW × 1.029)
won by 35
at Northwestern
11 (↑6)Utah
BCS=7
10-01.5031
(LW × 1.029)
won by 3
vs TCU
12 (↑1)Missouri
BCS=12
8-21.5005
(LW × 1.003)
won by 17
vs Kansas-St
13 (↓2)Georgia
BCS=10
8-21.4965
(LW × 0.991)
won by 4
at Kentucky
14 (↑1)Ball-St
BCS=14
9-01.4930
(LW × 1.019)
won by 31
vs Northern-Illinois
15 (↑3)TCU
BCS=18
9-21.4674
(LW × 1.005)
lost by 3
at Utah
16 (↓6)Oklahoma-St
BCS=13
8-21.4648
(LW × 0.964)
lost by 36
at Texas-Tech
17 (↑2)Michigan-St
BCS=15
9-21.4599
(LW × 1.007)
won by 14
vs Purdue
18 (↑5)Iowa6-41.4531
(LW × 1.036)
won by 1
vs Penn-St
19 (↑3)Florida-St
BCS=19
7-21.4520
(LW × 1.027)
won by 14
vs Clemson
20 (↑1)Pittsburgh
BCS=21
7-21.4432
(LW × 1.020)
won by 34
vs Louisville
21 (↑4)Cincinnati
BCS=22
7-21.4402
(LW × 1.039)
won by 3
at West-Virginia
22 (↓6)Miami-FL6-31.4352
(LW × 0.980)
Bye
23 (↓9)West-Virginia6-31.4275
(LW × 0.964)
lost by 3
vs Cincinnati
24 (↓4)Mississippi5-41.4098
(LW × 0.988)
Bye
25 (↑10)Virginia-Tech6-31.4031
(LW × 1.039)
won by 10
vs Maryland
26 (-)South-Carolina
BCS=25
7-31.3963
(LW × 1.010)
won by 13
vs Arkansas
27 (↑3)Rutgers4-51.3907
(LW × 1.014)
won by 18
vs Syracuse
28 (-)Tulsa
BCS=23
8-11.3857
(LW × 1.005)
Bye
29 (↑4)Nebraska6-41.3841
(LW × 1.021)
won by 10
vs Kansas
30 (↑11)Air-Force8-21.3780
(LW × 1.029)
won by 21
vs Colorado-St
31 (↑11)Oregon-St6-31.3756
(LW × 1.029)
won by 28
at UCLA
32 (-)Connecticut6-31.3664
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
33 (↑19)Wisconsin5-51.3634
(LW × 1.040)
won by 35
at Indiana
34 (↑5)Wake-Forest
BCS=24
6-31.3624
(LW × 1.012)
won by 11
vs Virginia
35 (↑21)Boston-Coll6-31.3601
(LW × 1.059)
won by 17
vs Notre-Dame
36 (↑4)W-Michigan8-21.3384
(LW × 0.997)
won by 6
vs Illinois

Other notable teams:
37 (↑1)BYU
BCS=17
9-11.3362
(LW × 0.992)
won by 29
vs San-Diego-St
43 (↑2)LSU
BCS=20
6-31.3184
(LW × 0.992)
lost by 6
vs Alabama

Comments:

  • I was shocked that Penn State let Iowa run the clock down to 6 seconds on their final drive, in spite of the fact that they had 3 time outs available. Even 30 seconds of clock time might've been enough for the Nittany Lions' offense to drive to field goal range. Just a stunning lack of basic clock management.

  • Penn State's loss was somewhat offset by (indirect) increase in power from other wins in the Big Ten, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State. Penn State would've taken over the #1 spot if they had won.

  • LSU played a very solid game against Alabama, with the Crimson tide needing a last-second field goal to force overtime. Ironically, this loss will probably be the one that finally knocks them out of BCS's ranked teams.

  • USC's defense absolutely stuffed Cal. On the Bears' only scoring drive, the USC defense had two interceptions called back on penalties, and that was the only drive Cal ever came close to scoring.

  • Rutgers is ranked well above their three remaining opponents (South Florida, Army, and Louisville). They could very easily finish 7-5.

  • In spite of their mid-season 1-5 skid, Wisconsin is at 5-5, and could win their last two games to finish 7-5. The bad news is that they're 1-5 in the Big Ten.

  • Update: LSU still ranked! One of only two three 3-loss teams (along with Wake Forest and South Carolina).

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

NFL Week 10 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 10, based on the week 9 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (excepte Colts @ Steelers and Ravens @ Texans, taken from footballlocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
San Francisco 49ers @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.3406
Cardinals
δ=12.70
Cardinals
-9½
Carolina Panthers @
Oakland Raiders
Panthers
ρ=1.3159
Panthers
δ=20.63
Panthers
-9
Baltimore Ravens @
Houston Texans
Ravens
ρ=1.1949
Ravens
δ=6.10
Ravens
-1
Jacksonville Jaguars @
Detroit Lions
Jaguars
ρ=1.1716
Jaguars
δ=9.74
Jaguars
-6½
Seattle Seahawks @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1647
Dolphins
δ=8.23
Dolphins
-9
St. Louis Rams @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.1630
Jets
δ=10.86
Jets
-8
Kansas City Chiefs @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.1623
Chargers
δ=12.96
Chargers
-15½
Denver Broncos @
Cleveland Browns
Browns
ρ=1.1436
Browns
δ=6.26
Browns
-3
Indianapolis Colts @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1248
Steelers
δ=7.60
Steelers
-3½
Tennessee Titans @
Chicago Bears
Titans
ρ=1.1054
Titans
δ=3.53
Titans
-3
New Orleans Saints @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0738
Falcons
δ=1.10
Falcons
-1
Green Bay Packers @
Minnesota Vikings
Packers
ρ=1.0448
Packers
δ=2.88
Vikings
-2
Buffalo Bills @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0136
Bills
δ=0.24
Patriots
-3½
New York Giants @
Philadelphia Eagles
Giants
ρ=1.0065
Giants
δ=0.31
Eagles
-3
Bye: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Comments:

  • Don't forget there's a Thursday game this week!

  • Disagreement on Packers @ Vikings, Bills @ Patriots, and Giants @ Eagles

  • Both APR and SRS rankings indicate Bills @ Patriots and Giants @ Eagles are close match-ups.

  • Chargers -15½? The Chargers seem to run hot and cold this year, and the Chiefs gave the Bucs a scare last week. I'm terrible at picking against the line, but this seems pretty iffy to me.

  • Cardinals -9½ seems like it should be a lock, but the Cardinals have had almost inexplicable troubles beating the 49ers. You may remember last years' 49ers @ Cardinals game, which went to overtime, and ended when Kurt Warner fumbled in his own end zone, recovered by the 49ers.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Tennessee
Titans
8-01.5285
(LW × 1.004)
won by 3
vs Packers
2 (↑6)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-21.4640
(LW × 1.069)
won by 17
at Redskins
3 (↑4)Baltimore
Ravens
5-31.4490
(LW × 1.039)
won by 10
at Browns
4 (↑1)New York
Giants
7-11.4479
(LW × 1.030)
won by 21
vs Cowboys
5 (↓1)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-31.4385
(LW × 1.021)
won by 19
at Seahawks
6 (-)Carolina
Panthers
6-21.4099
(LW × 1.004)
Bye
7 (↓5)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
6-31.4016
(LW × 0.972)
won by 3
at Chiefs
8 (↑2)Arizona
Cardinals
5-31.3834
(LW × 1.018)
won by 21
at Rams
9 (↓6)Chicago
Bears
5-31.3828
(LW × 0.980)
won by 4
vs Lions
10 (↑2)Green Bay
Packers
4-41.3612
(LW × 1.014)
lost by 3
at Titans
11 (↑7)Atlanta
Falcons
5-31.3358
(LW × 1.042)
won by 24
at Raiders
12 (↑4)Miami
Dolphins
4-41.3098
(LW × 1.017)
won by 9
at Broncos
13 (↑8)Minnesota
Vikings
4-41.3028
(LW × 1.025)
won by 7
vs Texans
14 (↑3)Indianapolis
Colts
4-41.3016
(LW × 1.014)
won by 3
vs Patriots
15 (↓6)Washington
Redskins
6-31.2976
(LW × 0.952)
lost by 17
vs Steelers
16 (↓5)Dallas
Cowboys
5-41.2950
(LW × 0.958)
lost by 21
at Giants
17 (↑6)New York
Jets
5-31.2924
(LW × 1.062)
won by 9
at Bills
18 (↓4)Cleveland
Browns
3-51.2840
(LW × 0.971)
lost by 10
vs Ravens
19 (↓4)San Diego
Chargers
3-51.2769
(LW × 0.991)
Bye
20 (↓1)New England
Patriots
5-31.2600
(LW × 0.987)
lost by 3
at Colts
21 (↑1)New Orleans
Saints
4-41.2440
(LW × 0.985)
Bye
22 (↓9)Buffalo
Bills
5-31.2431
(LW × 0.932)
lost by 9
vs Jets
23 (↓3)Jacksonville
Jaguars
3-51.2267
(LW × 0.963)
lost by 2
at Bengals
24 (-)Houston
Texans
3-51.2127
(LW × 1.006)
lost by 7
at Vikings
25 (↑1)Seattle
Seahawks
2-61.1246
(LW × 0.952)
lost by 19
vs Eagles
26 (↑1)Denver
Broncos
4-41.1228
(LW × 0.955)
lost by 9
vs Dolphins
27 (↓2)St. Louis
Rams
2-61.1113
(LW × 0.935)
lost by 21
vs Cardinals
28 (↑1)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-71.0986
(LW × 1.027)
lost by 3
vs Buccaneers
29 (↑2)Cincinnati
Bengals
1-81.0886
(LW × 1.058)
won by 2
vs Jaguars
30 (↓2)Oakland
Raiders
2-61.0714
(LW × 0.972)
lost by 24
vs Falcons
31 (↑1)Detroit
Lions
0-81.0471
(LW × 1.056)
lost by 4
at Bears
32 (↓2)San Francisco
49ers
2-61.0319
(LW × 1.002)
Bye

Comments:

  • The Titans, Giants, Steelers, and Panthers are the only teams with less than 3 losses.

  • I keep reading how the Steelers have injury problems and how their o-line is terrible. But they keep putting up quality wins. They could put together a lot of wins between now and week 16, when they play the Titans.

  • The Giants move up another spot on their win over the Cowboys; they're just a sliver under the #3 Ravens.

  • The Packers are the highest ranked 4-4 team, and certainly seem improved from when they were 2-3, and their only wins were against the Vikings and Lions.

  • The Broncos are no longer the lowest-ranked team with a winning record. Because they no longer have a winning record. Highest ranked AFC West team? #19 San Diego Chargers. That's a bad division.

  • The Lions are now the only team without a win. They've played close a number of times (including this week), and if the Bengals can beat the Jaguars, maybe so can the Lions (Jaguars @ Lions coming next week).

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Redskins (+10)
In week 5, the Redskins had a come-back win against the Eagles in Philadelphia. Since then, they lost to the Rams, squeeked by the Browns and Lions, and, Monday night, were on the short end of a 23-6 beat-down. That doesn't really seem like a top-5 team to me or APR.

Patriots (+8)
Closer than last week's +12. There's not much to add to what I wrote last week—except to observe that the reason the ranking difference is +8 is because ESPN moved them down by 5.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Ravens (-10)
It seems like APR has the Ravens at #3 for lack of competition as much as quality of their wins. We'll find out more about this team in week 11 when they travel to the Meadowlands to play the Giants.

Vikings (-8)
Another lack of competition ranking? The Vikings did manage to end the Texans (first ever) three-game winning streak, and so benefit (at least for a while) from their accumulated power.