Sunday, January 31, 2010

NFL Overtime Playoff Games since 1970

The overtime result of the NFC Championship Game has stirred up the usual complaints about the 'unfairness' of the overtime rules.

With that in mind, I decided to look through pro-football-reference.com's database to see how many playoff games went to overtime since 1970 (the year the NFL and AFL merged). Here's what I found (winning teams are listed in bold):

Date Visitor HomeNote
25Dec 1971 Dolphins27,Chiefs24 Longest NFL game played to date
24Dec 1977 Raiders37,Colts31 Ghost to the Post
9Jan 1982 Chargers41,Dolphins38 The Epic in Miami
3Jan 1987 Jets20,Browns23
11Jan 1987 Broncos23,Browns20 The Drive
3Jan 1988 Seahawks20,Oilers23
31Dec 1989 Steelers26,Oilers23
7Jan 1990 Rams19,Giants13
3Jan 1993 Oilers38,Bills41 The Comeback
8Jan 1994 Steelers24,Chiefs27
17Jan 1999 Falcons30,Vikings27 Gary Anderson's first miss of the season
30Dec 2000 Colts 17,Dolphins 23
19Jan 2002 Raiders 13,Patriots 16The 'tuck rule' game
11Jan 2003 Steelers31,Titans 34
4Jan 2004 Seahawks27,Packers 33
10Jan 2004 Panthers29,Rams 23
11Jan 2004 Packers 17,Eagles 20 4th and 26
8Jan 2005 Jets20,Chargers 17
15Jan 2005 Jets 17,Steelers 20
14Jan 2007 Seahawks24,Bears 27
20Jan 2008 Giants23,Packers 20
3Jan 2009 Colts 17,Chargers 23
10Jan 2010 Packers 45,Cardinals51
24Jan 2010 Vikings 28,Saints 31

Comments:

  • Of the 24 games listed, 17 (70.8%) were won on a field goal.

  • Notice that from 1993-2010, 12 of 16 games (75%) were won by the home team. Which suggests that playing at home is a much more important advantage than winning the coin toss.

  • From 1970 to 1998, 10 of the 269 playoff games (3.7%) went to overtime. From 1999-2009, 14 of the 98 playoff games (14.3%) went to overtime. Clearly, overtime games have become much more common; this issue isn't likely to go away.

  • This suggests it would be interesting to look at the rate of overtime games in the regular season during this era. However, I gathered part of this data "by hand"; there are way too many regular season games to look at unless the process is fully automated. I will eventually get to it, but not before the off season.

  • The result of the first overtime drive for games from the 2001 season to present are detailed here.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

NFL Super Bowl Pick

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
New Orleans Saints @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.0534
Saints
δ=3.74
Colts
-5½

Comments:

  • Interesting: SRS picks the Saints. Probably because (as mentioned in the previous power rankings) the Colts have a lot of close wins, and a couple big losses when they pulled their starters. Also, SRS is unweighted, so the Saints early big wins count equally with later closer games.

  • This is the first time since Super Bowl XXVIII that there's been a 1-seed vs. 1-seed matchup.

  • The Colts have been relatively slow on scoring in the first half. The Saints best chance is probably to establish an early lead before the Colts have a chance to get started. Of course, even if they do, Manning knows how to bring the Colts back when he needs to.

  • On the other hand, the Saints are the first playoff team the Colts will face with a legitimate passing threat. The Colts had a middle-of-the-pack pass defense in the regular season, so the Saints may at least have a chance to keep up once the scoring starts.

  • The NFL is actually on a relatively long streak of reasonably competitive Super Bowls. Super Bowl XXXVII (Raiders vs. Buccaneers) was the last one that wasn't within one score into the fourth quarter.

Monday, January 25, 2010

NFL Championship Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑5)Indianapolis
Colts
16-26.2691
(LW × 1.152)
won by 13
vs Jets
2 (-)Carolina
Panthers
8-86.0203
(LW × 0.980)
Bye
3 (-)New Orleans
Saints
15-35.9512
(LW × 0.995)
won by 3
vs Vikings
4 (↓3)New York
Jets
11-85.9097
(LW × 0.936)
lost by 13
at Colts
5 (↓1)Dallas
Cowboys
12-65.7591
(LW × 0.990)
Bye
6 (↓1)Minnesota
Vikings
13-55.3951
(LW × 0.939)
lost by 3
at Saints
7 (-)New England
Patriots
10-75.2491
(LW × 0.994)
Bye
8 (-)San Diego
Chargers
13-45.1190
(LW × 0.991)
Bye
9 (-)Atlanta
Falcons
9-74.8804
(LW × 0.989)
Bye
10 (-)Green Bay
Packers
11-64.8503
(LW × 0.987)
Bye
11 (-)Baltimore
Ravens
10-84.7078
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
12 (↑1)Buffalo
Bills
6-104.6804
(LW × 1.034)
Bye
13 (↓1)Philadelphia
Eagles
11-64.6601
(LW × 0.991)
Bye
14 (-)Houston
Texans
9-74.4743
(LW × 1.007)
Bye
15 (-)Pittsburgh
Steelers
9-74.3225
(LW × 0.987)
Bye
16 (-)Arizona
Cardinals
11-73.9856
(LW × 0.983)
Bye
17 (-)Miami
Dolphins
7-93.7230
(LW × 0.989)
Bye
18 (↑2)Tennessee
Titans
8-83.6352
(LW × 1.009)
Bye
19 (↓1)Cincinnati
Bengals
10-73.6264
(LW × 0.982)
Bye
20 (↓1)New York
Giants
8-83.5923
(LW × 0.989)
Bye
21 (-)Denver
Broncos
8-83.4906
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
22 (-)San Francisco
49ers
8-83.3979
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
23 (↑1)Cleveland
Browns
5-113.2135
(LW × 0.995)
Bye
24 (↓1)Chicago
Bears
7-93.1487
(LW × 0.973)
Bye
25 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
3-133.0404
(LW × 0.990)
Bye
26 (-)Jacksonville
Jaguars
7-93.0205
(LW × 1.009)
Bye
27 (-)Kansas City
Chiefs
4-122.7529
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
28 (-)Washington
Redskins
4-122.6168
(LW × 0.993)
Bye
29 (-)Oakland
Raiders
5-112.3930
(LW × 0.991)
Bye
30 (-)Seattle
Seahawks
5-111.9916
(LW × 0.997)
Bye
31 (-)St. Louis
Rams
1-151.4157
(LW × 0.998)
Bye
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
2-141.3956
(LW × 0.985)
Bye

Comments

  • The Colts' 2-score win returns them to the #1 spot (they were #1 in week 14, and #2 for most of the rest of the season).

  • The Saints gain some power on their win over the Vikings, but (since earlier games have lower weight), it also costs them power by giving many bigger wins in their 13-0 start less weight.

  • Perhaps inspired by last years' Cardinals, the Colts seem to have been holding back in the regular season. Of their initial 14 wins, they had 8 by single-digit margins. They had 4 wins by more than 12 points, but all early in the season, and all against relatively weak teams (the Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans, and Rams).

  • Is there a way the Saints don't get crushed by the Colts in the Super Bowl? The Saints were only able to keep pace with the Vikings in the NFC Championship game thanks to 2 interceptions and 3 recovered fumbles. The Colts likely aren't going to be so careless.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

NFL Championship Game Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for the Championship Games.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
The Jets played their game pretty well. But the Colts never seem to give up or panic when they find themselves in a hole, and a first-half lead of just 11 points is just not enough. Unlike the Bengals and Chargers, the Colts were able to keep pressing and keep scoring, and the Jets limited offense just wasn't able to keep up.

Vikings @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)
This really should've been the Vikings game. The Saints were mostly ineffective on offense, generating just two drives longer than 37 yards. But turnovers (two interceptions and three lost fumbles) gave the Saints short fields for a couple touchdowns, as well as denying Ryan Longwell a chance at a game-clinching field goal at the end of regulation.

Standings:

This Week Overall
APR  1-15-5
SRS  1-15-5
Line  2-08-2
Unanimous 1-03-1

New power rankings, and the Super Bowl pick to come.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

NFL Championship Game Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
New York Jets @
Indianapolis Colts
Jets
ρ=1.1603
Jets
δ=1.58
Colts
-8
Minnesota Vikings @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0411
Saints
δ=2.57
Saints
-4½

Comments:

  • The Colts will likely stick to the same game plan they used against the Ravens: establish an early lead, take away the running game, and grind the clock.

  • The Jets will likely stick to their same game plan too. They've made it this far with just Sanchez throwing just 38 times in two games. But the Colts defense will certainly be scheming to put Mark Sanchez in a position to throw the ball.

  • The Colts light end-of-season load and bye week for the wildcard round of the playoffs could be a major advantage for them as well. The Jets have been playing for their playoff lives for the last four games.

  • It's something of a shock to me that the NFC Championship game features the Vikings and Saints—the way both teams finished the regular season, I figured one if not both would be one-and-done in the divisional round.

  • One big factor in this game is going to be the Saints' offensive line. If Drew Brees is running for his life like Tony Romo was last week, it's going to be very hard for the Saints to keep up with the Vikings.

Monday, January 18, 2010

NFL Divisional Round Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For the Divisional Round

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)New York
Jets
11-76.3165
(LW × 1.038)
won by 3
at Chargers
2 (↑1)Carolina
Panthers
8-86.1421
(LW × 1.052)
Bye
3 (↑2)New Orleans
Saints
14-35.9801
(LW × 1.088)
won by 31
vs Cardinals
4 (↓3)Dallas
Cowboys
12-65.8151
(LW × 0.914)
lost by 31
at Vikings
5 (↑4)Minnesota
Vikings
13-45.7441
(LW × 1.169)
won by 31
vs Cowboys
6 (↑4)Indianapolis
Colts
15-25.4440
(LW × 1.124)
won by 17
vs Ravens
7 (↓1)New England
Patriots
10-75.2807
(LW × 1.025)
Bye
8 (↓4)San Diego
Chargers
13-45.1663
(LW × 0.923)
lost by 3
vs Jets
9 (↑2)Atlanta
Falcons
9-74.9349
(LW × 1.029)
Bye
10 (↓2)Green Bay
Packers
11-64.9133
(LW × 0.967)
Bye
11 (↓4)Baltimore
Ravens
10-84.7133
(LW × 0.921)
lost by 17
at Colts
12 (-)Philadelphia
Eagles
11-64.7037
(LW × 0.986)
Bye
13 (↑2)Buffalo
Bills
6-104.5260
(LW × 1.050)
Bye
14 (-)Houston
Texans
9-74.4420
(LW × 1.019)
Bye
15 (↓2)Pittsburgh
Steelers
9-74.3796
(LW × 0.986)
Bye
16 (-)Arizona
Cardinals
11-74.0541
(LW × 0.949)
lost by 31
at Saints
17 (↑2)Miami
Dolphins
7-93.7653
(LW × 1.029)
Bye
18 (↓1)Cincinnati
Bengals
10-73.6914
(LW × 0.981)
Bye
19 (↓1)New York
Giants
8-83.6327
(LW × 0.976)
Bye
20 (↑1)Tennessee
Titans
8-83.6045
(LW × 1.010)
Bye
21 (↓1)Denver
Broncos
8-83.4943
(LW × 0.968)
Bye
22 (-)San Francisco
49ers
8-83.4110
(LW × 0.995)
Bye
23 (↑1)Chicago
Bears
7-93.2377
(LW × 1.041)
Bye
24 (↓1)Cleveland
Browns
5-113.2288
(LW × 0.985)
Bye
25 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
3-133.0725
(LW × 1.030)
Bye
26 (-)Jacksonville
Jaguars
7-92.9925
(LW × 1.025)
Bye
27 (-)Kansas City
Chiefs
4-122.7628
(LW × 0.972)
Bye
28 (-)Washington
Redskins
4-122.6364
(LW × 0.974)
Bye
29 (-)Oakland
Raiders
5-112.4153
(LW × 0.967)
Bye
30 (-)Seattle
Seahawks
5-111.9977
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
31 (↑1)St. Louis
Rams
1-151.4184
(LW × 1.012)
Bye
32 (↓1)Detroit
Lions
2-141.4173
(LW × 0.994)
Bye

Comments

  • The Jets retake the top spot, thanks in part to the Cowboys' complete inability to stop the Vikings' pass rush. The Panthers also benefit indirectly via their week 15 win over the Vikings.

  • The Jets were joined by the Saints this week as the only winning teams not to score first. The Jets are also joined by the Colts as the only winning teams not to score at least 33 points total.

  • The Packers are still the only losing team that scored more than 14 points. Jets @ Chargers joins Packers @ Cardinals as the only games in the playoffs with more points scored after halftime than before.

  • This has been a pretty weak series of playoff games so far. Six of the eight games played have been over by halftime. Five games have ended with the winning team up by at least three scores.

  • The full, 32-team power rankings return, so you can see that the Rams and Lions are still locked in a battle for last place.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

NFL Divisional Round Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for the Divisional round.

Cardinals @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)
Rumors of the demise of the Saints offense are apparently greatly exaggerated. Like the Packers last week, the Saints shredded the Cardinals secondary early and often (though without the Packers' early stumbles). Unlike the Packers, the Saints' defense was able to get pressure on Kurt Warner. And, as you saw, Warner doesn't do well under pressure, especially playing from behind.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
This was a masterful game plan on the part of the Colts, executed to near perfection. On defense, the Colts took away the Ravens' main offensive weapons: Ray Rice was held to just 67 yards rushing, and Willis McGahee was a non-factor. On offense, the Colts established a two-touchdown lead by the end of the first half, and spent the second half grinding out the clock, and keeping the Ravens away from the endzone.

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
How did the Cowboys ever get to 11 wins with such an awful offensive line? Romo was sacked 6 times, constantly harrassed—it's no wonder the Cowboys couldn't sustain a drive all game long, and after the Vikings got their second touchdown, the game was never in doubt.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
As advertised: Sanchez threw for just 100 yards, Green and Jones ran for 169 yards, and the defense held the Chargers to just 14 points. How is this the same team that couldn't beat the Falcons in the Meadowlands in week 15?

Standings:

This Week Overall
APR  2-24-4
SRS  2-24-4
Line  3-16-2
Unanimous 1-12-1

New power rankings, and Championship Game picks to come.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

NFL Divisional Round Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Dallas Cowboys @
Minnesota Vikings
Cowboys
ρ=1.2948
Cowboys
δ=0.58
Vikings
-2½
Arizona Cardinals @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=1.2864
Saints
δ=9.89
Saints
-7
New York Jets @
San Diego Chargers
Jets
ρ=1.0872
Jets
δ=1.66
Chargers
-7½
Baltimore Ravens @
Indianapolis Colts
Ravens
ρ=1.0573
Ravens
δ=2.80
Colts
-6½

Comments:

  • Joe Flacco is probably going to need more than 4 completions for 34 yards to beat the Colts. Even if the Ravens manage to establish another quick 14-point lead, the Colts have shown more than once they can come back from a long ways down, and come back to win.

  • On the other hand, the Jets' best strategy is probably the same as last week: pass a little, run a lot, play good defense. But the Chargers' offense will be harder to stop than the Bengals'.

  • The last time the Saints scored more than 17 points was December 13th (week 14), when they travelled to Atlanta to play the Falcons. They have to be feeling a little uneasy facing a team that just put up 51 points on their opponent.

  • On the other hand, the Cardinals have to be thinking all they need to do to advance is A) keep scoring like last week, and B) get a few stops on what has been lately a very weak offense.

  • The Cowboys @ Vikings is an interesting matchup. On the one hand, the Cowboys have exactly one notable win outside the division (@ the Saints in week 15). On the other hand, the Vikings have been losing lately even to bad teams (though all on the road).

  • The Cowboys seem to have all the momentum going into this game, but you have to figure that Favre and the Vikings, playing at home, are going to give it everything they've got. Certainly, the Vikings have much more to lose: after such high expectations, one-and-done in the playoffs could spell the end of Favre's career, and probably get Childress fired as well.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

NFL Poll: Who ya got?

A chance for some easy feedback, and a chance for me to find out how many (if any) readers are out there. (Yeah, I could hook up with sitemeter... it's on my list of stuff to do.)

Which remaining team would you most like to see win the Super Bowl?
Colts
Chargers
Jets
Ravens
Saints
Vikings
Cardinals
Cowboys
I don't like any of them
  
pollcode.com free polls

Monday, January 11, 2010

NFL Wildcard Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Wildcard weekend

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)Dallas
Cowboys
12-56.3650
(LW × 1.063)
won by 20
vs Eagles
2 (↓1)New York
Jets
10-76.0879
(LW × 1.004)
won by 10
at Bengals
3 (-)Carolina
Panthers
8-85.8407
(LW × 1.002)
Bye
4 (↑2)San Diego
Chargers
13-35.5999
(LW × 1.001)
Bye
5 (-)New Orleans
Saints
13-35.4979
(LW × 0.981)
Bye
6 (↓2)New England
Patriots
10-75.1518
(LW × 0.911)
lost by 19
vs Ravens
7 (↑8)Baltimore
Ravens
10-75.1197
(LW × 1.228)
won by 19
at Patriots
8 (↓1)Green Bay
Packers
11-65.0797
(LW × 0.987)
lost by 6
at Cardinals
9 (-)Minnesota
Vikings
12-44.9157
(LW × 1.009)
Bye
10 (↑1)Indianapolis
Colts
14-24.8423
(LW × 1.015)
Bye
11 (↓1)Atlanta
Falcons
9-74.7966
(LW × 0.995)
Bye
12 (↓4)Philadelphia
Eagles
11-64.7685
(LW × 0.930)
lost by 20
at Cowboys
13 (↑1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
9-74.4431
(LW × 1.028)
Bye
14 (↓2)Houston
Texans
9-74.3596
(LW × 0.978)
Bye
15 (↓2)Buffalo
Bills
6-104.3113
(LW × 0.994)
Bye
16 (↑3)Arizona
Cardinals
11-64.2740
(LW × 1.161)
won by 6
vs Packers
17 (↓1)Cincinnati
Bengals
10-73.7620
(LW × 0.975)
lost by 10
vs Jets
18 (-)New York
Giants
8-83.7230
(LW × 1.011)
Bye
19 (↓2)Miami
Dolphins
7-93.6597
(LW × 0.983)
Bye

Comments

  • The Jets were the only winning team that didn't score first this week. The Jets were also the only winning team that didn't have at least 24 points by halftime, and the only winning team not to score at least 33 points total.

  • The Packers were the only losing team that scored more than 14 points. Packers @ Cardinals was the only game this weekend with more points scored after halftime than before.

  • The Cardinals move up so they are now ranked above another (eliminated) playoff team. Again, much like last year.

  • Every team in the AFC East drops at least one spot from last week, although the Jets actually increased their power index a tiny bit (just not nearly enough to stay ahead of the Cowboys).

  • None of the teams below the Dolphins changed order from week 17 (and all are out of the playoffs), and so have been elided in this listing.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

NFL Wildcard Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for Wildcard Weekend.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)
Wow... maybe the Jets are actually good? I didn't think the Bengals would make it past the divisional round, but I figured they could take care of the Jets. And if the Bengals could've kept their defense off the field more, maybe they could have.
But it was the Bengals offense that struggled. So many times receivers were dropping balls, Palmer was overthrowing them, or they were just flat-out not on the same play. Mark Sanches threw fewer total passes (15) than Carson Palmer threw incompletions (18).
Eagles @ Cowboys (APR, SRS, Line)
Were the Eagles secretly mediocre? Looking back on their regular season schedule, they only beat one team (the Falcons) with a winning record, and were 0-4 against teams that qualified for the playoffs.
This game furthers the case that the Eagles are just not ready to play at the highest levels of the NFL. Other than that early touchdown, their offense didn't have a drive longer than 32 yards until garbage time. And thanks to a combination of offensive turnovers and bad defense, They gave up a back-breaking 27 points in the second quarter, and never came close to being in the game again.
Ravens @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)
The Patriots looked unprepared for this game right from the start. The Ravens' first play from scrimmage was an 83 yard touchdown run; the Patriot's first drive ended with negative yards and a lost fumble that the Ravens quickly converted to another touchdown. The Patriots never got close after that.
Packers (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)
In a lot of ways, this was a replay of the Packers @ Steelers game from week 15. Two offenses shredding their opposing defenses, and a final late clinching score. If the Packers ever figure out a pass defense, they'll be a real powerhouse.

Standings:

This Week Overall
APR  2-22-2
SRS  2-22-2
Line  3-13-1
Unanimous 1-11-1

New power rankings, and Divisional round picks to come.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

NFL Wrapup: Top 10 Upsets

Determining Upset Magnatude

When power index values are computed for the purposes of weekly power rankings and picks, the values for each game are weighted so that older games matter less than more recent games.

Since it makes more sense to evaluate upsets in the context of the whole season, all games are given equal weight for purposes of this post. This means the matchup ratio (ρ) given below will usually not be the same as the one posted when the game was originally picked.

Also, in order to avoid some of the weirdness associated with the end of the season (e.g., teams resting in preparation for the playoffs), the games in the final week of the season were not included in the power index computations.

Determining the Top 10 Upsets

Once the power index values have been computed for each team, the full season of games was examined, and all games where the lower-ranked team won were selected. The "upset games" se were then sorted by the ratio of the teams powers (higher divided by lower), and the games with the biggest ratios selected for this list.

Dishonorable Mention: some games that missed the cut

There are some notable upsets outside the top 10 that deserve at least a mention:

  • Week 13: The Patriots travel to Miami looking for their second road win of the season, and come away denied.
  • Week 9: The Packers give the Buccaneers their first win.
  • Week 13: The Steelers can't stop the Raiders in Pittsburgh.
  • Week 13: The 49ers can't get a win in Seattle.
  • Week 11: The Bengals faltering offense can't outscore the Raiders.

The Top 10 Upsets of the 2009 Season

As determined by the unweighted APR power indexes from week 16.

  1. Week 11: Browns 37, Lions 38 (ρ=1.6037)
    This looks like more of an upset now thanks to the Browns finishing on a 4-game winning streak. But as an example of utter ineptitude on the part of the losing team, it surely qualifies. Is there another example, ever, of a defense getting called for pass interference on a Hail Mary?

  1. Week 16: Vikings 30, Bears 36 (ρ=1.6171)
    The Vikings were still alive for the #1 seed going into this game, and needed a win to maintain control over the #2 seed. Instead, they lost their third road game in four weeks, and only clinched a bye thanks to a stunning collapse by the Eagles in week 17.

  1. Week 10: Broncos 17, Redskins 27 (ρ=1.7181)
    This was the game Chris Simms had to finish because Kyle Orton got hurt. This was also the game where the Redskins tried their "no way that's going to work" fake punt and it worked. What's worse, this wasn't even the biggest upset of the year for the Broncos.

  1. Week 14: Steelers 6, Browns 13 (ρ=1.7331)
    It was late in the season, the Steelers were coming off a couple embarrassing losses, but they were still in the thick of the wildcard race. All they needed to do to get back on track for the playoffs was to take care of business against the 1-11 Browns. Instead, the Browns sacked Roethlisberger eight times, the Steelers could only put up 6 points, and they went home with a third embarrassing loss.

  1. Week 15: Raiders 20, Broncos 19 (ρ=1.7529)
    The in spite of a 2-5 stretch, in week 15 the Broncos were still alive for the playoffs. Taking care of the 4-9 Raiders at home would be a good first step in getting things turned around. Instead, the Raiders got 241 yards rushing, and even JaMarcus Russell managed to throw a touchdown.

  1. Week 3: Redskins 14, Lions 19 (ρ=1.7964)
    The Redskins actually had a pretty decent defense this season, although this game is not a good example. Matt Stafford threw for 241 yards and a touchdown, Kevin Smith ran for 101 yards, and it was just too much for the Redskins' struggling offense to overcome.

  1. Week 11: Steelers 24, Chiefs 27 (ρ=1.9538)
    The Steelers were terrible on special teams this year, and really struggled on defense when Troy Polamalu was out. Both weaknesses contributed to the Steelers biggest upset of the season.

  1. Week 6: Eagles 9, Raiders 13 (ρ=2.0861)
    The Eagles' week 17 shutout was not a total fluke. This is another example of a game where they just couldn't get much going offensively. This was one of just two games where the Raiders didn't give up at least 16 points.

  1. Week 17: Chiefs 44, Broncos 24 (ρ=2.1695)
    Either Jamaal Charles (259 yards rushing in this game) is one of the break-out stars of the 2009 season, or the Broncos are really, really bad at run defense. We'll have to wait until September to find out about Jammal Charles, but there's no question the Broncos playoff hopes were snuffed out in part because they couldn't stop Jamaal Charles, Michael Bush, and Darren McFadden (the last two doing most of the damage for the Raiders in game 6, above).

  1. Week 16: Buccaneers 20, Saints 17 (ρ=2.5171)
    For much of the season, the Saints plowed through their competition like they were playing at another level. But as the season wore on, outcomes started getting closer and closer, until finally, with the #1 seed still in play, they lost to one of the worst teams in the league.

Eliminated Games

The following games were elminated from contention because one team pulled its starters, or was indirectly affected by such a team.

  • Week 10: Jaguars 24, Jets 22 (ρ=1.6275)
    A "win" over the Colts made the Jets look better than they really are. This was something of an upset, but it doesn't belong in the top 10.

  • Week 17: Colts 7, Bills 30 (ρ=1.7270)
    How much did it matter that the Colts were resting their starters? This was only the fifth game of the season the Bills managed to scored more than 17 points.

Friday, January 8, 2010

NCAA Final Top 30+

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Final AP rankings will be added after they are released.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Alabama
AP=1
14-08.6491
(LW × 1.107)
won by 16
vs Texas
2 (↑1)Florida
AP=3
13-17.4805
(LW × 1.168)
won by 27
at Cincinnati
3 (↓1)Texas
AP=2
13-16.5225
(LW × 0.878)
lost by 16
at Alabama
4 (↑3)Virginia-Tech
AP=10
10-35.9896
(LW × 1.100)
won by 23
at Tennessee
5 (↑3)TCU
AP=6
12-15.8100
(LW × 1.078)
lost by 7
vs Boise-St
6 (↑4)Ohio-St
AP=5
11-25.6282
(LW × 1.061)
won by 9
at Oregon
7 (↓3)Texas-Tech
AP=21
9-45.6127
(LW × 0.973)
won by 10
vs Michigan-St
8 (↓3)Oklahoma
AP=rv(90)
8-55.3889
(LW × 0.942)
won by 4
at Stanford
9 (↓3)Arkansas
AP=rv(3)
8-55.3337
(LW × 0.968)
won by 3
at East-Carolina
10 (↑2)Mississippi
AP=20
9-45.2837
(LW × 1.037)
won by 14
vs Oklahoma-St
11 (↑3)Boise-St
AP=4
14-05.2563
(LW × 1.087)
won by 7
at TCU
12 (↑9)Iowa
AP=7
11-25.0337
(LW × 1.146)
won by 10
at Georgia-Tech
13 (↑3)Nebraska
AP=14
10-45.0107
(LW × 1.067)
won by 33
vs Arizona
14 (↓3)Penn-St
AP=9
11-24.9742
(LW × 0.958)
won by 2
at LSU
15 (↓6)Oregon
AP=11
10-34.8239
(LW × 0.908)
lost by 9
vs Ohio-St
16 (↑20)BYU
AP=12
11-24.7202
(LW × 1.324)
won by 24
vs Oregon-St
17 (↓4)Georgia-Tech
AP=13
11-34.6411
(LW × 0.936)
lost by 10
vs Iowa
18 (↓1)LSU
AP=17
9-44.5010
(LW × 0.992)
lost by 2
vs Penn-St
19 (↓4)Cincinnati
AP=8
12-14.4646
(LW × 0.941)
lost by 27
vs Florida
20 (↑4)Pittsburgh
AP=15
10-34.4552
(LW × 1.065)
won by 2
at North-Carolina
21 (↓3)Miami-FL
AP=19
9-44.3745
(LW × 0.965)
lost by 6
at Wisconsin
22 (↑9)Georgia
AP=rv(7)
8-54.3531
(LW × 1.141)
won by 24
vs Texas-A&M
23 (↓4)Stanford
AP=rv(67)
8-54.1467
(LW × 0.930)
lost by 4
vs Oklahoma
24 (↓1)Auburn
AP=rv(8)
8-54.1196
(LW × 0.984)
won by 3
vs Northwestern
25 (↑5)Wisconsin
AP=16
10-34.0787
(LW × 1.069)
won by 6
vs Miami-FL
26 (↑3)Clemson
AP=24
9-54.0627
(LW × 1.026)
won by 8
vs Kentucky
27 (↓2)West-Virginia
AP=25
9-33.9846
(LW × 0.961)
lost by 12
at Florida-St
28 (↓8)Oklahoma-St
AP=rv(40)
9-43.9287
(LW × 0.884)
lost by 14
at Mississippi
29 (↑16)Florida-St
AP=rv(6)
7-63.9260
(LW × 1.249)
won by 12
vs West-Virginia
30 (↓2)North-Carolina8-53.9133
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 2
vs Pittsburgh

Other notable teams:
33 (↑1)USC
AP=22
9-43.8352
(LW × 1.031)
won by 11
vs Boston-Coll
34 (↑14)Rutgers
AP=rv(37)
9-43.7716
(LW × 1.239)
won by 21
vs UCF
35 (↑24)Air-Force
AP=rv(3)
8-53.7666
(LW × 1.384)
won by 27
vs Houston
36 (↑6)Connecticut
AP=rv(5)
8-53.7633
(LW × 1.137)
won by 13
vs South-Carolina
37 (↓15)Oregon-St
AP=rv(89)
8-53.6879
(LW × 0.871)
lost by 24
at BYU
38 (↑12)Utah
AP=18
10-33.6788
(LW × 1.227)
won by 10
at California
39 (↑24)Navy
AP=rv(85)
10-43.6205
(LW × 1.392)
won by 22
at Missouri
41 (↓3)Cent-Michigan
AP=23
11-23.4578
(LW × 0.985)
won by 3
at Troy
43 (↓8)Arizona
AP=rv(5)
8-53.3083
(LW × 0.897)
lost by 33
at Nebraska
54 (↑12)Middle-Tenn-St
AP=rv(4)
10-32.9123
(LW × 1.135)
won by 10
vs Southern-Miss

Pick Standings

Bowl games were picked in this post. Unlike last year, there were only a handful of split picks. But like last year, APR did the worst:

Line:18-16(52.9%)
SRS: 17-17(50.0%)
APR: 16-18(47.1%)
Unanimous:13-14(48.1%)

Comments:

  • Once again, a pretty unremarkable record for bowl game picks. At least APR did better than 36% this year.

  • One thing that has occurred to me lately is that a neutral-field game is essentially a road game for both teams. And one thing I've really noticed this year is that there are some otherwise good teams that just tank on the road. Something else to look at in the off-season.

  • Colt McCoy going out early in the BCS Championship Game has to be a little bit of a bummer for Alabama. Beating Texas when they are playing their backup quarterback just isn't the same. At least they didn't lose to Texas playing their backup quarterback.

  • Lowest ranked teams to win a game: Idaho (#91) in the Humanitarian Bowl, and Wyoming (#86) in New Mexico Bowl.

  • Biggest Bowl upsets (according to APR): Wyoming defeating Fresno St (New Mexico Bowl) and SMU defeating Nevada (Hawaii Bowl).

  • Villanova (14-1 and the FCS champion) received 2 votes in the AP poll, but all FCS teams are removed from APR's rankings as a matter of course, and so are not listed here.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

NFL Wildcard Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
New York Jets @
Cincinnati Bengals
Jets
ρ=1.5715
Jets
δ=7.73
Bengals
-2½
Green Bay Packers @
Arizona Cardinals
Packers
ρ=1.3985
Packers
δ=7.67
Cardinals
-2½
Baltimore Ravens @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.3563
Patriots
δ=3.56
Patriots
-3½
Philadelphia Eagles @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1682
Cowboys
δ=1.16
Cowboys
-4

Comments:

  • This week features 3 rematches of games from the final week of the regular season. There's been 10 "wildcard rematch" games going back to 1988, but this is the first year there's been more than two the same season. Home teams are 8-2 in the playoff round of these contests.

  • In spite of APR's current ranking, the Jets are probably one of the weakest playoff team this year. The good news for them is they're matched up against the Bengals, whose low ranking is well deserved.

  • Don't read too much into the Packers' win last week. The Cardinals demonstrated very well last year they are able to play quite well in the playoffs, even in spite of very questionable play in the regular season.

  • The Ravens start another playoff run on the road at the AFC East division champions. But the Ravens aren't nearly as strong on defense as they were last year, and they're going to have a harder time advancing this year.

  • I figured the Cowboys playoff hopes were done after their loss to the Chargers made them 2-3 for their last 5. Somehow they've managed to claw their way back and win the NFC East. But there's still got to be some serious questions about what playoff teams (if any) they can beat.

  • But with the Eagles coming off a loss that cost them the division, a bye week, and means they will be on the road in the playoffs until they are out, they're perhaps the one team the Cowboys can be confident of beating.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

NFL Wrapup: APR vs ESPN

Starting with week 4, I included a contrast of APR's power rankings with ESPN's weekly power rankings. This is the final installment of the series for the 2009 season, along with a summary of the teams that appeared on these lists over the regular season.

Teams that ESPN likes more than APR, week 17:

Cardinals (+11)
APR had the Cardinals as high as #4 in week 13 after they beat the Vikings. Since then, they had an embarrassing loss to the 49ers, a couple lackluster wins over the Lions and Rams, and finished up with a no-show game against the Packers. Even if you discount that final game, it hasn't been an impressive home stretch for the Cardinals.

Colts (+10)
APR doesn't take into account when teams rest their players. All it knows is the Colt lost to a very weak Bills team by 23 points.

Teams that APR likes more than ESPN, week 17:

Panthers (-15)
I will admit the Panthers are not the #3 team in the league right now. But they did show some definite improvement down the stretch, and probably deserve to be ranked higher than #18, where ESPN has them.

Buffalo (-11), Jets (-11)
On the other hand, APR clearly has the Bills, and particularly the Jets ranked way too high. As I mentioned several times through the season, APR seems to give a single big win too much weight. It's something I will try to fix over the off-season.

Teams that ESPN liked more than APR, regular season

Giants (7 weeks)
The Giants got off to a 5-0 start, and ESPN was in love. The trouble was 4 of those teams (Redskins, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Raiders) were all dogs, and APR knew it. The Giants won just 3 more games after that.

Bengals (4 weeks)
The Bengals look a lot like paper tigers this season. Seven of their wins are by a touchdown or less. That means (like in the loss to the Raiders), all it takes for them to lose is one late game error. It's not the sign of a team that will do well in the playoffs.

Also-rans
Eagles, Packers (3 weeks), Cardinals, Chargers, Colts, Vikings (1 week)

Teams that APR liked more than APR, regular season

Jets (6 weeks)
As discussed above, this was APR giving too much weight to individual wins, along with a couple division winners laying down for them at the end of the season.

Panthers (5 weeks)
The Panthers benefitted from the same quirk, but at least with them I can point to a couple upset wins over the Cardinals and Vikings, along with a strong 3-1 finish.

Titans (4 weeks)
The Titans also benefitted from APR's love of wins, rising very quickly once they started their winning streak.

Also-rans
Cardinals, Texans (3 weeks), 49ers (2 weeks), Bills, Dolphins, Patriots (1 week)

Monday, January 4, 2010

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 17

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑3)New York
Jets
9-76.0648
(LW × 1.100)
won by 37
vs Bengals
2 (↑4)Dallas
Cowboys
11-55.9887
(LW × 1.149)
won by 24
vs Eagles
3 (↑5)Carolina
Panthers
8-85.8284
(LW × 1.205)
won by 13
vs Saints
4 (↓2)New England
Patriots
10-65.6527
(LW × 0.990)
lost by 7
at Texans
5 (↓4)New Orleans
Saints
13-35.6056
(LW × 0.948)
lost by 13
at Panthers
6 (↓3)San Diego
Chargers
13-35.5945
(LW × 1.003)
won by 3
vs Redskins
7 (↑3)Green Bay
Packers
11-55.1475
(LW × 1.194)
won by 26
at Cardinals
8 (↓3)Philadelphia
Eagles
11-55.1264
(LW × 0.943)
lost by 24
at Cowboys
9 (↑2)Minnesota
Vikings
12-44.8717
(LW × 1.188)
won by 37
vs Giants
10 (↓1)Atlanta
Falcons
9-74.8230
(LW × 1.114)
won by 10
at Buccaneers
11 (↓4)Indianapolis
Colts
14-24.7715
(LW × 0.925)
lost by 23
at Bills
12 (↑5)Houston
Texans
9-74.4598
(LW × 1.207)
won by 7
vs Patriots
13 (↑9)Buffalo
Bills
6-104.3382
(LW × 1.357)
won by 23
vs Colts
14 (↑4)Pittsburgh
Steelers
9-74.3237
(LW × 1.171)
won by 6
at Dolphins
15 (↓1)Baltimore
Ravens
9-74.1679
(LW × 1.097)
won by 8
at Raiders
16 (↑3)Cincinnati
Bengals
10-63.8593
(LW × 1.056)
lost by 37
at Jets
17 (↓1)Miami
Dolphins
7-93.7243
(LW × 0.996)
lost by 6
vs Steelers
18 (↓3)New York
Giants
8-83.6812
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 37
at Vikings
19 (↓6)Arizona
Cardinals
10-63.6806
(LW × 0.964)
lost by 26
vs Packers
20 (↓8)Denver
Broncos
8-83.6216
(LW × 0.947)
lost by 20
vs Chiefs
21 (↓1)Tennessee
Titans
8-83.5258
(LW × 1.013)
won by 4
at Seahawks
22 (↓1)San Francisco
49ers
8-83.2973
(LW × 1.001)
won by 22
at Rams
23 (↑3)Cleveland
Browns
5-113.2551
(LW × 1.212)
won by 6
vs Jaguars
24 (↑1)Chicago
Bears
7-93.0733
(LW × 1.111)
won by 14
at Lions
25 (↓2)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
3-133.0157
(LW × 0.971)
lost by 10
vs Falcons
26 (↓2)Jacksonville
Jaguars
7-92.9409
(LW × 1.014)
lost by 6
at Browns
27 (↑3)Kansas City
Chiefs
4-122.8430
(LW × 1.466)
won by 20
at Broncos
28 (↓1)Washington
Redskins
4-122.7112
(LW × 1.020)
lost by 3
at Chargers
29 (↓1)Oakland
Raiders
5-112.4773
(LW × 0.991)
lost by 8
vs Ravens
30 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
5-111.9548
(LW × 1.008)
lost by 4
vs Titans
31 (↑1)Detroit
Lions
2-141.3859
(LW × 1.019)
lost by 14
vs Bears
32 (↓1)St. Louis
Rams
1-151.3696
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 22
vs 49ers

Comments

  • The Saints losing ways finally costs them the top spot. And thanks to another division winner laying down for them, the Jets take it over.

  • And somehow the 6-10 Bills have climed to #13, mostly on the strength of their "big win" over the Colts.

  • The 49ers make it to 8 wins, for the first time since 2002. The Falcons have back-to-back winning seasons for the first time, ever. And the Titans are the first team (at least since 1977) that started 0-6 and made it to 8 wins.

  • The Chargers finish the regular season with an 11-game winning streak. The Jaguars and Broncos both finished with 4-game losing streaks.

  • The NFC wildcard teams (Packers and Eagles) both have an 11-5 record, which is the same or better as four division winners (Patriots 10-6, Bengals 10-6, Cowboys 11-5, and Cardinals 10-6).

  • The Panthers are the highest ranked team out of the playoffs. And, like last year, the Cardinals are the lowest ranked playoff team, and the lowest ranked team with a winning record.

  • The Steelers are the only team to win a playoff game last year and not qualify for the playoffs this year. The Colts and Vikings are the only returning teams that were one-and-done last year.

APR vs ESPN

I will include the week 17 results in the season-ending wrap up post. It seems likely the Jets, Panthers and Bills will get a mention.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 17.

Unanimous picks (8-1)

Correctly picked:

49ers @ Rams
Redskins @ Chargers
Bears @ Lions
Titans @ Seahawks
Ravens @ Raiders
Bengals @ Jets
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Giants @ Vikings

Not so much:

Chiefs @ Broncos
Once again, the Broncos run defense fails to show up. Jamaal Charles got 259 yards rushing, with four other Chiefs adding in another 58 yards. Kyle Orton's 3 interceptions helped seal the deal. And for the second season in a row, the Broncos are knocked out of the playoffs on an embarrassing final game blow-out.

Split Picks (APR 1-6, SRS 1-6, Line 6-1)

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)
Once again, Curtis Painter comes in and does his one-man disaster act. An interception, a lost fumble, and 4/17 for 39 yards. I thought the Colts were going to try to maintain a little momentum going into the playoffs?

Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)
You could chalk this up to a Patriots team that didn't have anything to gain by winning, but if so, why did Tom Brady play until the Patriots final drive? I think they would've liked to get a third road win this season, but just couldn't.

Saints (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
Saints were resting their starters, Brees didn't play a down.

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)
The Cardinals pulled their starters early too, with Kurt Warner playing for just two drives. But even in the early going, the Cardinals looked flat, and the Packers looked like a team that wanted to win. The Cardinals will have no excuse if they come out flat again next week.

Jaguars (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)
The Jaguars offense sputtered early, with just one drive longer than 34 yards in the first three quarters. Harrison and Cribbs didn't have as big a day as the last two weeks, but enough to build a 20-3 lead going into the fourth quarter. The Jaguars offense finally did get started, but couldn't put up enough points to overcome the hole they'd left themselves in.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
Did someone forget to tell the Eagles they would have a bye week if they won? The Eagles started at or inside their own 20 until late in the game, and could never sustain a drive, only once going more than 47 yards.

Steelers (Line) @ Dolphins (APR, SRS)
The Dolphins were in this for much of the game, but hurt greatly by the loss of Chad Henne after the first half. Pat White came in in relief, and then Tyler Thigpen when White was hurt. Thigpen had a chance to lead a comeback, but a couple of late interceptions sealed the win for the Steelers.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR   9-7152-8863.3%
SRS   9-7152-8863.3%
Line  14-2166-7469.2%
Unanimous  8-1124-4672.9%

New power rankings, and Wildcard week picks to come.