Update: Added line picks
The preseason is over!
Because APR is a feedback-based algorithm, and there is nothing to
feed back before any games are played, there are no APR-based
picks for week 1.
...Unless you use the preseason games. I hereby present picks for
week one, based on preseason APR rankings. I've generated four
power ranking tables, producing four picks for each game (detailed
below). The power rankings are generated as follows:
Preseason Week 3: Rankings based on the final scores of all
games up to and including week 3
Pre/Half Week 3: Rankings based on the half-time scores
of all games up to and including week 3
Preseason Week 4: Final-score based rankings for week
4
Pre/Half Week 4: Half-time score based rankings for week
4
The games with the darker background are those that are not
unanimous picks.
Game
| Preseason Week 3
| Pre/half Week 3
| Preseason Week 4
| Pre/half Week 4
| Line
|
WAS @ NYG | WAS | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG
|
CIN @ BAL | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN
|
NYJ @ MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | NYJ
|
KC @ NE | KC | KC | KC | KC | NE
|
HOU @ PIT | PIT | PIT | HOU | PIT | PIT
|
JAC @ TEN | JAC | JAC | JAC | JAC | JAC
|
DET @ ATL | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET
|
SEA @ BUF | BUF | BUF | SEA | SEA | Push
|
TB @ NO | NO | NO | TB | NO | NO
|
STL @ PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI
|
DAL @ CLE | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL
|
CAR @ SD | CAR | CAR | SD | SD | SD
|
ARI @ SF | ARI | ARI | SF | ARI | ARI
|
CHI @ IND | IND | IND | CHI | CHI | IND
|
MIN @ GB | MIN | MIN | GB | MIN | GB
|
DEN @ OAK | DEN | OAK | DEN | DEN | DEN
|
Are the Patriots really that bad?
The Patriots have had a forgettable preseason, finishing 0-4.
What's worse, they were outscored 67-9 in the first half of play,
presumably when the first- and second-string players are on the
field. Unless they've been holding back in a big way, and not just
with Tom Brady, it looks like the Patriots could be in for a major
let-down this year. If the Patriots are anywhere near the level
they played at last year, there's no way the Chiefs beat them in
week 1 (right?). But it's not going to look good if KC is within a
score late in the 4th quarter...
Are those other teams really that good?
On the other hand, APR (Pre/half Week 3) has the Bills, Dolphins,
Panthers, Cardinals, Saints, Lions, Vikings, and Chiefs all in the
top 10. Could all of these teams have had such a major turn around
from last year? Could any of these teams have had such a
major turn around from last year? Maybe the Pats fans' best hope is
that the whole idea that preseason games mean something is just so
much hot air. Tune in next week to find out...