Wednesday, September 29, 2010

NFL: Week 4 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
49ers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.7346
Falcons
δ=30.2
Falcons
-7
Bears @
Giants
Bears
ρ=1.5229
Bears
δ=19.8
Giants
-3½
Broncos @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.4966
Titans
δ=18.3
Titans
-6½
Panthers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.4688
Saints
δ=21.8
Saints
-13½
Jets @
Bills
Jets
ρ=1.3515
Jets
δ=16.6
Jets
-4½
Lions @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.3292
Packers
δ=14.0
Packers
-14½
Colts @
Jaguars
Colts
ρ=1.2877
Colts
δ=18.1
Colts
-8½
Ravens @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.2305
Steelers
δ=19.8
Steelers
-1½
Cardinals @
Chargers
Cardinals
ρ=1.2102
Chargers
δ=8.4
Chargers
-8
Redskins @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.2060
Eagles
δ=10.0
Eagles
-6
Seahawks @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.1091
Seahawks
δ=3.6
Seahawks
-1
Texans @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.0468
Texans
δ=8.4
Texans
-3
Bengals @
Browns
Bengals
ρ=1.0457
Browns
δ=1.0
Bengals
-3
Patriots @
Dolphins
Patriots
ρ=1.0161
Patriots
δ=0.2
Patriots
-1

Bye: Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, Buccaneers

Comments:

  • 10 Unanimous picks this week—things are starting to settle down.

  • The Line likes the Giants this week? Well, the Bears could be overrated, and they are traveling on a short week after a big divisional win. On the other hand, the Giants have given every indication that they're really bad this year.

  • The Seahawks have a couple very questionable home wins, and a bad road loss to the not-very-good Broncos. I think the Rams' resurgent defense could be enough to give them an actual 2-game winning streak.

  • Everybody likes the Patriots over the Dolphins. It will be something of a bellwether if the Pats do win—you have to go back to 2008 to find their last solid road win.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

NFL: Week 3 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-4)

Right

Steelers @ Buccaneers
Bengals @ Panthers
Colts @ Broncos
Bills @ Patriots

Wrong

Cowboys @ Texans
The Cowboys looked much improved in this game, particularly their offensive line. Romo had good protection all game, and it showed: 23/30 for 284 yards, 2 TDs, and no sacks. Meanwhile, the Texans looked like the team in search of answers: 2 interceptions, 4 sacks, a lost fumble and 6 drives that didn't go 45 yards.
Redskins @ Rams
Do the Rams have a defense this year? So far they haven't given up more than 16 points in a game. Weird stat of the week: the Rams are 3-1 vs. the Redskins 2006-2010.
Chargers @ Seahawks
The Chargers give up two more long touchdowns on special teams. Which is really bad for an offense that (on the road, anyway) has yet to score 21 points.
Packers @ Bears
The Packers made a raft of mistakes in this game (penalties, kick return coverage, pass defense). The Bears made fewer mistakes, and were in a position to take advantage when the Packers made some of their biggest.

Split (APR: 4-4 SRS: 5-3 Line: 4-4)

Lions (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
Not what you'd call a perfect game for the Vikings (2 interceptions and a lost fumble), but the Lions (especially without Stafford) just aren't good enough to take advantage.
Raiders (SRS) @ Cardinals (APR, Line)
An ugly game that could've gone either way. As much as anything, Janikowski's three field goal misses (including what would've been the last-second game winner) are to blame for Oakland's loss.
Eagles (SRS, Line) @ Jaguars (APR)
How exactly did the Jaguars beat the Broncos in week 1? Since then, the Jags have given up 66 points, thrown 5 interceptions, lost two fumbles, and just looked bad generally.
Browns (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)
To be fair to the Browns, they were competitive in this game, and actually had the lead in the 4th quarter. But their defense gave up 10 points after that, and the offense just wasn't able to respond. They're going to need a better QB than Seneca Wallace (or, probably, Jake Delhomme) to get many wins.
49ers (Line) @ Chiefs (APR, SRS)
The Chiefs first solid win of the season makes them 3-0. It's hard to say how good they are, but clearly better than last year. And the 49ers... yikes. Whatever their protocol for game day is on the road, they need to change it. Now.
Falcons(APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)
The good news for the Saints is that they scored 24 points on the Falcons defense that had allowed 22 points total in its first two games. The bad news is that's well short of the 35+ points per game they averaged in their 13 regular season wins last year, and short of what their own defense needed this week.
Titans (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
I'm not really sure why the Line liked the Giants in this game. They struggled to beat a very weak Panthers team, and got demolished by the Colts. They're just not very good. The Titans may have their issues as well, but when you can't stop Chris Johnson (125 yards, 2TD) or score a lot of points on their defense, it's hard to take advantage.
Jets (SRS) @ Dolphins (APR, Line)
I had a feeling APR had the Dolphins overrated. And while the Jets had a horrible game against the Ravens in week 1, they've now put up a couple very solid divisional wins. They could very well be the team to beat in the AFC East, especially if the Patriots continue to struggle on the road.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 8-816-1650.0%
SRS 9-716-1650.0%
Line8-827-2156.3%

Monday, September 27, 2010

NFL: Week 3 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑2)Steelers1.2902
(LW × 1.0672)
3-0Won by 25
@ Buccaneers
2 (↑2)Falcons1.1912
(LW × 1.0514)
2-1Won by 3
@ Saints
3 (↓1)Packers1.1145
(LW × 0.9035)
2-1Lost by 3
@ Bears
4 (↑10)Jets1.1115
(LW × 1.1760)
2-1Won by 8
@ Dolphins
5 (↑4)Bears1.0696
(LW × 1.0876)
3-0Won by 3
vs Packers
6 (↑7)Ravens1.0485
(LW × 1.0992)
2-1Won by 7
vs Browns
7 (↑8)Titans1.0481
(LW × 1.1154)
2-1Won by 19
@ Giants
8 (↑11)Patriots0.9884
(LW × 1.1127)
2-1Won by 8
vs Bills
9 (↓2)Dolphins0.9728
(LW × 0.9318)
2-1Lost by 8
vs Jets
10 (↓9)Chiefs0.9677
(LW × 0.7509)
3-0Won by 21
vs 49ers
11 (↑10)Saints0.9484
(LW × 1.1176)
2-1Lost by 3
vs Falcons
12 (↑10)Cardinals0.9437
(LW × 1.1420)
2-1Won by 1
vs Raiders
13 (↑3)Eagles0.9279
(LW × 0.9914)
2-1Won by 25
@ Jaguars
14 (↑13)Vikings0.9235
(LW × 1.1956)
1-2Won by 14
vs Lions
15 (↑9)Cowboys0.9008
(LW × 1.1103)
1-2Won by 14
@ Texans
16 (↓6)Colts0.8868
(LW × 0.9112)
2-1Won by 14
@ Broncos
17 (↑9)Bengals0.8774
(LW × 1.0876)
2-1Won by 13
@ Panthers
18 (↑12)Rams0.8758
(LW × 1.2416)
1-2Won by 14
vs Redskins
19 (↓11)Buccaneers0.8722
(LW × 0.8539)
2-1Lost by 25
vs Steelers
20 (↑9)Raiders0.8674
(LW × 1.2015)
1-2Lost by 1
@ Cardinals
21 (↓9)Browns0.8390
(LW × 0.8669)
0-3Lost by 7
@ Ravens
22 (↓4)Lions0.8385
(LW × 0.9373)
0-3Lost by 14
@ Vikings
23 (↓18)Texans0.8287
(LW × 0.7343)
2-1Lost by 14
vs Cowboys
24 (↓1)Bills0.8224
(LW × 1.0033)
0-3Lost by 8
@ Patriots
25 (↑3)Seahawks0.7897
(LW × 1.0243)
2-1Won by 7
vs Chargers
26 (↓20)Chargers0.7798
(LW × 0.6994)
1-2Lost by 7
@ Seahawks
27 (↓10)Redskins0.7694
(LW × 0.8525)
1-2Lost by 14
@ Rams
28 (↓3)Giants0.7024
(LW × 0.8702)
1-2Lost by 19
vs Titans
29 (↓9)Broncos0.7003
(LW × 0.8100)
1-2Lost by 14
vs Colts
30 (↓19)Jaguars0.6887
(LW × 0.7105)
1-2Lost by 25
vs Eagles
31 (↑1)49ers0.6867
(LW × 1.1446)
0-3Lost by 21
@ Chiefs
32 (↓1)Panthers0.6457
(LW × 0.9430)
0-3Lost by 13
vs Bengals

Comments:

  • Yeah, that's starting to feel more like how things are.

  • The Steelers are really good: the three teams they've beaten have (so far) only lost to the Steelers.

  • And who would've guessed that the Bears and Chiefs would be the only other teams to make it to 3-0? Good news for all those teams struggling out of the gate—there's plenty of time to get things turned around.

  • Given the lack of quality in the Colts upcoming opponents (Jaguars, Chiefs, and Redskins), they might have trouble breaking into the top 10 even if they make it to 5-1.

  • Big movers: Chargers (-20), Jaguars (-19), Texans (-18), Vikings (+13).

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

NFL: Week 3 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
49ers @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=2.1479
Chiefs
δ=42.6
49ers
-1
Chargers @
Seahawks
Chargers
ρ=1.4462
Chargers
δ=21.9
Chargers
-5½
Cowboys @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.3908
Texans
δ=14.4
Texans
-2½
Falcons @
Saints
Falcons
ρ=1.3350
Falcons
δ=33.1
Saints
-4½
Redskins @
Rams
Redskins
ρ=1.2794
Redskins
δ=25.2
Redskins
-3
Packers @
Bears
Packers
ρ=1.2543
Packers
δ=8.0
Packers
-3
Steelers @
Buccaneers
Steelers
ρ=1.1836
Steelers
δ=14.4
Steelers
-2½
Bengals @
Panthers
Bengals
ρ=1.1781
Bengals
δ=12.1
Bengals
-3
Titans @
Giants
Titans
ρ=1.1642
Titans
δ=23.1
Giants
-3
Lions @
Vikings
Lions
ρ=1.1583
Lions
δ=22.5
Vikings
-10½
Raiders @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.1447
Raiders
δ=1.0
Cardinals
-4
Colts @
Broncos
Colts
ρ=1.1258
Colts
δ=9.0
Colts
-6
Jets @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1047
Jets
δ=14.0
Dolphins
-1½
Bills @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0838
Patriots
δ=16.9
Patriots
-13½
Eagles @
Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.0357
Eagles
δ=2.5
Eagles
-3
Browns @
Ravens
Browns
ρ=1.0147
Browns
δ=8.1
Ravens
-10½

Comments:

  • Mike Singletary will be real danger of losing his team if the 49ers can't get a road win against an opponent that they should handle easily.

  • Packers @ Bears is just about as big a game as you could ask for in week 3: first place, an undefeated record, and a solid lead in the division all on the line.

  • The Bears' season could be on the line, too. The last thing they need is a big loss at home just as they are starting to gain confidence in Martz' system.

  • Lions @ Vikings is an interesting game, too, from a "how low can they go" point of view. The Lions have been competitive in both their games, and the Vikings—the way their offense has been playing, they could need a shut-out to win by 11 points.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

NFL: Week 2 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (3-2)

Right

Bills @ Packers
Saints @ 49ers
Texans @ Redskins

Wrong

Ravens @ Bengals
Joe Flacco: 44% completion rate, 4 interceptions, and a sack. That's pretty much it, right there.
Patriots @ Jets
This is how the Jets were supposed to be this year: dominating on defense, with Sanchez efficient and more confident on the offensive side. The Patriots are looking very similar to last year: good at home; can't buy a win on the road.

Split (APR: 5-6 SRS: 4-7 Line: 6-5)

Eagles (Line) @ Lions (APR, SRS)
It's not surprising that the Eagles leave Detroit with a win. But it can't be good news for their defense that they've given up 59 points in their first two games.
Giants (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
Whatever the Texans did to the Colts last week, the Giants just couldn't make it a repeat performance. 4 sacks, 3 fumbles, and just one drive longer than 35 yards made it a tough day for the younger Manning.
Jaguars (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
David Garrard was so bad in this game (15/23, 173 yards, 4 interceptions) he was pulled for Luke McCown. In related news, Luke McCown is still in the NFL.
Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)
Nothing went right for the Seahawks in this game. When they had the ball, they couldn't keep it (3 interceptions, 1 lost fumble). When they were playing defense, they couldn't get a stop (the Broncos had 5 scoring drives and a 37:27 edge in time of posession).
Rams (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)
The Raiders search for a quarterback continues. And two losses by a combined 6 points for Sam Bradford and the Rams.
Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
I thought the Cardinals' defense would keep them in this a lot more than they did. But maybe they just gave up when they saw how awful the offense was: only one drive longer than 40 yards (and that was a single 80 yard run). This is starting to look like a very long season for the Cardinals.
Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
APR and SRS picked the Bucs because they won last week, and the Panthers didn't. Why the line liked the Panthers, I cannot say. Matt Moore was terrible last week, and worse this week. He was finally pulled in the 4th quarter after getting sacked for the fourth time.
Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)
Again, the Chiefs find a way to win on two critical plays: a recovered fumble and an interception return put 10 points on the scoreboard for the Chiefs, and the Browns just don't have enough to overcome.
Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
That is what is known, technically, as "Bad Favre". 3 interceptions, a fumble lost in the end zone, and only 3 drives that went more than 45 yards. The Vikings are starting to look like they might not get to 8 wins this year.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
Is the Martz system working for the Bears? Cutler was a very efficient 21/29, 227 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. The Cowboys offense did better than last week, but not enough to keep up with the Bears.
Steelers (APR) @ Titans (SRS, Line)
Make no mistake—this win belongs to the Steelers' defense. Batch and Dixon were a combined 9/17 for 43 yards. If Rothelisberger can put some life in that offense when he comes back, the Steelers will be really hard to beat.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 8-8 8- 850.0%
SRS 7-9 7- 943.8%
Line9-719-1359.4%

Monday, September 20, 2010

NFL: Week 2 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑3)Chiefs1.2886
(LW × 1.1318)
2-0Won by 2
@ Browns
2 (↓1)Packers1.2336
(LW × 1.0776)
2-0Won by 27
vs Bills
3 (↑7)Steelers1.2089
(LW × 1.1225)
2-0Won by 8
@ Titans
4 (↑13)Falcons1.1330
(LW × 1.1689)
1-1Won by 34
vs Cardinals
5 (↓3)Texans1.1284
(LW × 0.9910)
2-0Won by 3
@ Redskins
6 (↑16)Chargers1.1149
(LW × 1.3487)
1-1Won by 25
vs Jaguars
7 (-)Dolphins1.0440
(LW × 0.9642)
2-0Won by 4
@ Vikings
8 (↑2)Buccaneers1.0214
(LW × 0.9484)
2-0Won by 13
@ Panthers
9 (↑1)Bears0.9835
(LW × 0.9132)
2-0Won by 7
@ Cowboys
10 (↑14)Colts0.9732
(LW × 1.1845)
1-1Won by 24
vs Giants
11 (↓7)Jaguars0.9693
(LW × 0.8513)
1-1Lost by 25
@ Chargers
12 (↑5)Browns0.9679
(LW × 0.9985)
0-2Lost by 2
vs Chiefs
13 (↓6)Ravens0.9538
(LW × 0.8809)
1-1Lost by 5
@ Bengals
14 (↑12)Jets0.9451
(LW × 1.2001)
1-1Won by 14
vs Patriots
15 (-)Titans0.9396
(LW × 0.8767)
1-1Lost by 8
vs Steelers
16 (↑13)Eagles0.9359
(LW × 1.3935)
1-1Won by 3
@ Lions
17 (↓7)Redskins0.9024
(LW × 0.8379)
1-1Lost by 3
vs Texans
18 (↓1)Lions0.8946
(LW × 0.9230)
0-2Lost by 3
vs Eagles
19 (↓13)Patriots0.8884
(LW × 0.8196)
1-1Lost by 14
@ Jets
20 (↑2)Broncos0.8645
(LW × 1.0458)
1-1Won by 17
vs Seahawks
21 (↓11)Saints0.8487
(LW × 0.7880)
2-0Won by 3
@ 49ers
22 (↓15)Cardinals0.8264
(LW × 0.7631)
1-1Lost by 34
@ Falcons
23 (↑3)Bills0.8197
(LW × 1.0408)
0-2Lost by 27
@ Packers
24 (↓7)Cowboys0.8113
(LW × 0.8370)
0-2Lost by 7
vs Bears
25 (↓22)Giants0.8071
(LW × 0.7088)
1-1Lost by 24
@ Colts
26 (↑4)Bengals0.8067
(LW × 1.2772)
1-1Won by 5
vs Ravens
27 (↓10)Vikings0.7724
(LW × 0.7968)
0-2Lost by 4
vs Dolphins
28 (↓13)Seahawks0.7709
(LW × 0.7193)
1-1Lost by 17
@ Broncos
29 (↑2)Raiders0.7219
(LW × 1.1830)
1-1Won by 2
vs Rams
30 (↓4)Rams0.7053
(LW × 0.8957)
0-2Lost by 2
@ Raiders
31 (↓6)Panthers0.6847
(LW × 0.8384)
0-2Lost by 13
vs Buccaneers
32 (↓1)49ers0.5999
(LW × 0.9831)
0-2Lost by 3
vs Saints

Comments:

  • Chiefs at #1? Well, they are 2-0, which is about all APR sees right now. And helped by the Chargers win today.

  • And the 2-0 Saints drop to #21! Well, close wins over a couple 0-2 opponents doesn't look very good (especially squeaking out a last-second 3-point win on the 49ers, after they got pasted 6-31 last week).

  • And the 0-2 Browns at #12... but they do have close wins against a couple 2-0 opponents. That's how this is supposed to work. But wow, this has been a wacky couple weeks of football.

  • No surprise, all the big movers are 1-1 teams: Giants (22), Chargers (16), Cardinals (14), Seahawks, Falcons, Eagles, Patriots (13).

  • Pick results coming sometime Tuesday, followed by picks for next week.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NFL: Week 2 Game Picks

All line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
Saints @
49ers
Saints
ρ=1.7648
Saints
δ=30
Saints
-5
Ravens @
Bengals
Ravens
ρ=1.7144
Ravens
δ=15
Ravens
-1½
Bills @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.4536
Packers
δ=12
Packers
-13½
Eagles @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.4433
Lions
δ=2
Eagles
-4½
Giants @
Colts
Giants
ρ=1.3858
Giants
δ=23
Colts
-5½
Jaguars @
Chargers
Jaguars
ρ=1.3774
Jaguars
δ=14
Chargers
-8½
Patriots @
Jets
Patriots
ρ=1.3764
Patriots
δ=15
Patriots
-2
Buccaneers @
Panthers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.3187
Buccaneers
δ=16
Panthers
-3
Seahawks @
Broncos
Seahawks
ρ=1.2966
Seahawks
δ=32
Broncos
-3½
Rams @
Raiders
Rams
ρ=1.2905
Rams
δ=21
Raiders
-3½
Chiefs @
Browns
Chiefs
ρ=1.1746
Chiefs
δ=10
Browns
-2
Dolphins @
Vikings
Dolphins
ρ=1.1171
Dolphins
δ=10
Vikings
-5½
Cardinals @
Falcons
Cardinals
ρ=1.1171
Cardinals
δ=10
Falcons
-6½
Bears @
Cowboys
Bears
ρ=1.1111
Bears
δ=11
Cowboys
-8½
Texans @
Redskins
Texans
ρ=1.0572
Texans
δ=4
Texans
-3
Steelers @
Titans
Steelers
ρ=1.0049
Titans
δ=19
Titans
-5

Comments:

  • Picks are based on the Week 1 power rankings.

  • All 1-0 teams are ranked above all 0-1 teams, so there are some... odd picks, like the Dolphins over the Vikings.

  • APR and SRS are agreed on all games except Steelers @ Titans.

  • After the way the 49ers got clobbered on Sunday, I'm really surprised the Saints are only favored by 5.

  • On the other hand, it says something about how bad the Bills looked that even after the Packers lost Ryan Grant, they're still favored by 13½.

NFL: Week 1 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-3)

Right

Cardinals @ Rams
Raiders @ Titans
Lions @ Bears
Bengals @ Patriots
Packers @ Eagles

Wrong

Colts @ Texans
The Colts won't win many games this year if they can't stop the run. The Texans' Arian Foster had 231 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns against the Colts' alleged run defense.

Cowboys @ Redskins
This game was just a disaster for the Cowboys. Offensive futility, 10 penalties, a fumble lost for a touchdown, and the game winning touchdown called back on a holding call.

Chargers @ Chiefs
Matt Cassel was 10/22, 68 yards, and a touchdown. The Chargers outgained the Chiefs nearly 2-to-1. They win this game easily, except for three disasterous plays: a run that broke 56 yards for a touchdown, a fumble return that set up a short drive for a second touchdown, and a 94-yard punt return for a third. The Chargers managed to drive well within field goal range at the end of the game, so they likely could have escaped with a 3-point win if they could have stopped even one of these plays.

Split (std: 2-6 RH: 5-3 Line: 5-3)

49ers (std, Line) @ Seahawks (RH)
The Seahawks were so awful last season, it's hard to believe they've made dramatic improvements already. But somehow the Seahawks looked like the defensive-minded team ready to contend for the division.

Broncos (std, RH) @ Jaguars (Line)
You've got to put this one on the Broncos defense. Last year, the Broncos (and the Jaguars, for that matter) only made it to 24 points in 6 games.

Dolphins (std, Line) @ Bills (RH)
Last year, the Dolphins struggled on the road, including a 14-31 loss at Buffalo. They probably would've lost again this year, except the Bills' offense managed exactly one drive longer than 27 yards.

Panthers (std) @ Giants (RH, Line)
Matt Moore had an absolutely miserable day as the Panthers' QB: 14/33, 182 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions. It's a wonder that they managed 18 points, and actually lead at half time.

Browns (std, RH) @ Bucs (Line)
Jake Delhomme's troubles seem to have followed him to Cleveland: 2 interceptions and a 54% completion rate is going to make it tough to beat anyone.

Falcons (Line) @ Steelers (std, RH)
No QB controversy in Pittsburgh. The defense and running game manage to pull out a win.

Ravens (std) @ Jets (RH, Line)
Maybe the Jets will do better against lesser defenses, but they looked really sloppy in this game. Sanchez had a 41.7% completion rate, and the running game just wasn't there to take up the slack.

Vikings (std) @ Saints (RH, Line)
The Vikings are another team that are in real trouble if their offense can't get going. They only had two drives longer than 34 yards, which is stunning for a sqaud that had 4 drives of 70 yards or more against the Saints defense last year in the Championship Game.

Totals

Pythagorean (std) 79
Pythagorean (R/H)106
Line 106

A nice confirmation of the R/H split idea. This also agrees with runs that I've done on previous seasons, which suggests that the R/H variation averages a couple picks better than the standard version.

Monday, September 13, 2010

NFL: Week 1 Power Rankings

Update: just noticed that the Chargers and Chiefs were missing out of the rankings. Fixed.

This is using a revamped power ranking system, which means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted in 2008 or 2009. More details later this week.

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1Packers1.14471-0Won by 7
@ Eagles
2Texans1.13861-0Won by 10
vs Colts
3Giants1.13861-0Won by 13
vs Panthers
T 4Jaguars1.13861-0Won by 7
vs Broncos
T 4Chiefs1.13861-0Won by 7
vs Chargers
6Patriots1.08391-0Won by 14
vs Bengals
T 7Cardinals1.08281-0Won by 4
@ Rams
T 7Ravens1.08281-0Won by 1
@ Jets
T 7Dolphins1.08281-0Won by 5
@ Bills
T10Saints1.07701-0Won by 5
vs Vikings
T10Steelers1.07701-0Won by 6
vs Falcons
T10Buccaneers1.07701-0Won by 3
vs Browns
T10Bears1.07701-0Won by 5
vs Lions
T10Redskins1.07701-0Won by 6
vs Cowboys
T15Titans1.07181-0Won by 25
vs Raiders
T15Seahawks1.07181-0Won by 25
vs 49ers
T17Falcons0.96930-1Lost by 6
@ Steelers
T17Browns0.96930-1Lost by 3
@ Buccaneers
T17Lions0.96930-1Lost by 5
@ Bears
T17Vikings0.96930-1Lost by 5
@ Saints
T17Cowboys0.96930-1Lost by 6
@ Redskins
T22Chargers0.82660-1Lost by 7
@ Chiefs
T22Broncos0.82660-1Lost by 7
@ Jaguars
24Colts0.82170-1Lost by 10
@ Texans
25Panthers0.81670-1Lost by 13
@ Giants
T26Jets0.78750-1Lost by 1
vs Ravens
T26Bills0.78750-1Lost by 5
vs Dolphins
T26Rams0.78750-1Lost by 4
vs Cardinals
29Eagles0.67160-1Lost by 7
vs Packers
30Bengals0.63160-1Lost by 14
@ Patriots
T3149ers0.61020-1Lost by 25
@ Seahawks
T31Raiders0.61020-1Lost by 25
@ Titans

Comments:

  • As usual, these ranks are based on a the result of single week's worth of games, so don't read too much into it.

  • Also as usual, all 1-0 teams are ranked above all 0-1 teams, and a number of ties in the rankings.

  • I'm going to try a different style of posting from last year. This year, the power rankings will go up right after the last game of the week goes final (as near as I can manage), with the Pick Results following Tuesday.

Monday, September 6, 2010

NFL Week 1 Picks

Hey, kids—it's time for week 1 picks!

Like last year, week 1 picks will be based on Pythagorean Projection. As usual, picks are sorted by the confidence factor of the left-most column, from highest to lowest.

  • Pythag (std): these picks are based on the standard Pythagorean Projection. The confidence numbers are just the differences of the projection values for each team.

  • Pythag (R/H): these picks are based on a variation of the Pythagorean Projection. Two projections are created for each team, splitting teams based on road games and home games. Here, the road projection of the road team is compared to the home projection of the home team.

  • The untitiled column with the asterisks indicate where the standard and R/H projections differ.

  • Line: as usual, line values are taken from yahoo, and are used for comparison purposes only.


GamePythag
(std)
Pythag
(R/H)
Line
Cardinals @
Rams
Cardinals
(0.4809)
Cardinals
(0.5777)
Cardinals
-4
Chargers @
Chiefs
Chargers
(0.4004)
Chargers
(0.5264)
Chargers
-5
Cowboys @
Redskins
Cowboys
(0.3399)
Cowboys
(0.3062)
Cowboys
-3½
49ers @
Seahawks
49ers
(0.2809)
Seahawks
(0.1561)
*49ers
-3
Raiders @
Titans
Titans
(0.2503)
Titans
(0.4226)
Titans
-6½
Lions @
Bears
Bears
(0.2376)
Bears
(0.5137)
Bears
-6
Bengals @
Patriots
Patriots
(0.1949)
Patriots
(0.5475)
Patriots
-4
Broncos @
Jaguars
Broncos
(0.1585)
Broncos
(0.0256)
Jaguars
-2½
Packers @
Eagles
Packers
(0.1000)
Packers
(0.0851)
Packers
-3
Dolphins @
Bills
Dolphins
(0.0879)
Bills
(0.1129)
*Dolphins
-3
Colts @
Texans
Colts
(0.0830)
Colts
(0.1400)
Colts
-2½
Panthers @
Giants
Panthers
(0.0490)
Giants
(0.0202)
*Giants
-7
Browns @
Buccaneers
Browns
(0.0306)
Browns
(0.0751)
Buccaneers
-3
Falcons @
Steelers
Steelers
(0.0097)
Steelers
(0.1108)
Falcons
-2½
Ravens @
Jets
Ravens
(0.0076)
Jets
(0.2208)
*Jets
-2½
Vikings @
Saints
Vikings
(0.0034)
Saints
(0.1562)
*Saints
-4½

Comments:

  • I will update with the lines for the two Monday Night games as soon as I see them up. Update: done.

  • The 49ers went just 2-6 on the road last year. One of those 6 losses was at the Seahawks. They may be the favorite to win the NFC West, but this is a game the 49ers need to win if that is to mean anything more than a one-and-done appearance on Wildcard Weekend.

  • Last year, the Vikings faded a bit towards the end of the season, going 0-3 in prime time road games (at least two of which should have been reasonably easy wins).

  • The Saints had their late-season troubles too, finishing 0-3 while the #1 seed was still open. They also didn't really look that good in the NFC Championship Game—the only reason they were in it at the end is because the Vikings kept turning the ball over to them.

Friday, September 3, 2010

NFL: Preseason Points

It's tough to make predictions based on preseason results in the NFL, but I was looking at the stats for total points scored, and saw some interesting results. A more careful analysis would break down points scored based on whether or not the first teams were in, but I'll leave that for someone else.

Points For

RankTeamPF
1Packers123
2Saints122
3Bengals112
4Bills111
29Jets57
30Falcons55
31Bears46
32Panthers33

Comments

  • The Packers and Saints are right back to their high-scoring ways

  • Perhaps the Bengals' biggest problems last season was an inability to score points. Maybe they've finally got that fixed?

  • It doesn't bode well for teams (like the Jets and Bears) that have high expectations for the season that they scored so few points in the preseason.

  • The Panthers scored just 2 touchdowns in the preseason (every other team scored at least 5). There is some good news for them, though, seen below.

Points Against

RankTeamPA
T1Ravens52
T1Panthers52
3Falcons57
T4Cardinals, Vikings59
28Broncos106
30Bills111
31Bengals112
32Colts160

Comments

  • Lost in the attention given their QB controversy, the Cardinals had a very good preseason on defense.

  • The Panthers had a very good preseason on defense too. But unless their offense gets going, they will likely still struggle to make it to 8 wins this year.

  • Bad news for the Bengals: getting the offense going isn't going to help if the defense suddenly becomes a revolving door.

  • The Colts defense really got smoked in the preseason (though not all of those 160 points is their fault, the special teams were giving up touchdowns too).

Net Points

RankTeamNet Pts
1Vikings34
2Ravens33
349ers32
4Packers31
29Seahawks-15
30Panthers-19
31Bears-38
32Colts-70
  • Some of the usual suspects at the top of the list. The Ravens and 49ers have to be the early favorites to win their respective divisions, I think.

  • I posted this a few times elsewhere, but it's worth repeating: if the Bears are mastering a Martz-style offense, they kept it well hidden in the preseason.