Winning teams in bold.
Unanimous Picks (5-3)
Right
Cardinals @ Rams
Raiders @ Titans
Lions @ Bears
Bengals @ Patriots
Packers @ Eagles
Wrong
- Colts @ Texans
- The Colts won't win many games this year if they can't stop the run. The Texans' Arian Foster had 231 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns against the Colts' alleged run defense.
- Cowboys @ Redskins
- This game was just a disaster for the Cowboys. Offensive futility, 10 penalties, a fumble lost for a touchdown, and the game winning touchdown called back on a holding call.
- Chargers @ Chiefs
- Matt Cassel was 10/22, 68 yards, and a touchdown. The Chargers outgained the Chiefs nearly 2-to-1. They win this game easily, except for three disasterous plays: a run that broke 56 yards for a touchdown, a fumble return that set up a short drive for a second touchdown, and a 94-yard punt return for a third. The Chargers managed to drive well within field goal range at the end of the game, so they likely could have escaped with a 3-point win if they could have stopped even one of these plays.
Split (std: 2-6 RH: 5-3 Line: 5-3)
- 49ers (std, Line) @ Seahawks (RH)
- The Seahawks were so awful last season, it's hard to believe they've made dramatic improvements already. But somehow the Seahawks looked like the defensive-minded team ready to contend for the division.
- Broncos (std, RH) @ Jaguars (Line)
- You've got to put this one on the Broncos defense. Last year, the
Broncos (and the Jaguars, for that matter) only made it to 24 points
in 6 games.
- Dolphins (std, Line) @ Bills (RH)
- Last year, the Dolphins struggled on the road, including a 14-31 loss at Buffalo. They probably would've lost again this year, except the Bills' offense managed exactly one drive longer than 27 yards.
- Panthers (std) @ Giants (RH, Line)
- Matt Moore had an absolutely miserable day as the Panthers' QB:
14/33, 182 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions. It's a wonder that they
managed 18 points, and actually lead at half time.
- Browns (std, RH) @ Bucs (Line)
- Jake Delhomme's troubles seem to have followed him to Cleveland: 2 interceptions and a 54% completion rate is going to make it tough to beat anyone.
- Falcons (Line) @ Steelers (std, RH)
- No QB controversy in Pittsburgh. The defense and running game manage to pull out a win.
- Ravens (std) @ Jets (RH, Line)
- Maybe the Jets will do better against lesser defenses, but they looked really sloppy in this game. Sanchez had a 41.7% completion rate, and the running game just wasn't there to take up the slack.
- Vikings (std) @ Saints (RH, Line)
- The Vikings are another team that are in real trouble if their offense can't get going. They only had two drives longer than 34 yards, which is stunning for a sqaud that had 4 drives of 70 yards or more against the Saints defense last year in the Championship Game.
Totals
| Pythagorean (std) | 7 | 9 |
| Pythagorean (R/H) | 10 | 6 |
| Line | 10 | 6 |
A nice confirmation of the R/H split idea. This also agrees with runs that I've done on previous seasons, which suggests that the R/H variation averages a couple picks better than the standard version.
