Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NFL: Week 1 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-3)


Cardinals @ Rams
Raiders @ Titans
Lions @ Bears
Bengals @ Patriots
Packers @ Eagles


Colts @ Texans
The Colts won't win many games this year if they can't stop the run. The Texans' Arian Foster had 231 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns against the Colts' alleged run defense.

Cowboys @ Redskins
This game was just a disaster for the Cowboys. Offensive futility, 10 penalties, a fumble lost for a touchdown, and the game winning touchdown called back on a holding call.

Chargers @ Chiefs
Matt Cassel was 10/22, 68 yards, and a touchdown. The Chargers outgained the Chiefs nearly 2-to-1. They win this game easily, except for three disasterous plays: a run that broke 56 yards for a touchdown, a fumble return that set up a short drive for a second touchdown, and a 94-yard punt return for a third. The Chargers managed to drive well within field goal range at the end of the game, so they likely could have escaped with a 3-point win if they could have stopped even one of these plays.

Split (std: 2-6 RH: 5-3 Line: 5-3)

49ers (std, Line) @ Seahawks (RH)
The Seahawks were so awful last season, it's hard to believe they've made dramatic improvements already. But somehow the Seahawks looked like the defensive-minded team ready to contend for the division.

Broncos (std, RH) @ Jaguars (Line)
You've got to put this one on the Broncos defense. Last year, the Broncos (and the Jaguars, for that matter) only made it to 24 points in 6 games.

Dolphins (std, Line) @ Bills (RH)
Last year, the Dolphins struggled on the road, including a 14-31 loss at Buffalo. They probably would've lost again this year, except the Bills' offense managed exactly one drive longer than 27 yards.

Panthers (std) @ Giants (RH, Line)
Matt Moore had an absolutely miserable day as the Panthers' QB: 14/33, 182 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions. It's a wonder that they managed 18 points, and actually lead at half time.

Browns (std, RH) @ Bucs (Line)
Jake Delhomme's troubles seem to have followed him to Cleveland: 2 interceptions and a 54% completion rate is going to make it tough to beat anyone.

Falcons (Line) @ Steelers (std, RH)
No QB controversy in Pittsburgh. The defense and running game manage to pull out a win.

Ravens (std) @ Jets (RH, Line)
Maybe the Jets will do better against lesser defenses, but they looked really sloppy in this game. Sanchez had a 41.7% completion rate, and the running game just wasn't there to take up the slack.

Vikings (std) @ Saints (RH, Line)
The Vikings are another team that are in real trouble if their offense can't get going. They only had two drives longer than 34 yards, which is stunning for a sqaud that had 4 drives of 70 yards or more against the Saints defense last year in the Championship Game.


Pythagorean (std) 79
Pythagorean (R/H)106
Line 106

A nice confirmation of the R/H split idea. This also agrees with runs that I've done on previous seasons, which suggests that the R/H variation averages a couple picks better than the standard version.