Wednesday, September 28, 2011

NFL Week 4 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Redskins @
Rams
Redskins
ρ=1.7430
Redskins*
δ=27.8
Redskins
-1
49ers @
Eagles
49ers
ρ=1.4211
49ers*
δ=18.0
Eagles
-7½
Bills @
Bengals
Bills
ρ=1.2738
Bills*
δ=12.0
Bills
-3
Colts @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.2610
Buccaneers
δ=13.2
Buccaneers
-10
Titans @
Browns
Titans
ρ=1.2605
Titans*
δ=13.1
Browns
-1½
Jets @
Ravens
Jets*
ρ=1.2341
Jets*
δ=6.4
Ravens
-3
Broncos @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2043
Packers
δ=5.9
Packers
-13
Saints @
Jaguars
Saints*
ρ=1.1898
Saints*
δ=17.5
Saints
-7½
Dolphins @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.1808
Dolphins*
δ=1.8
Chargers
-7½
Giants @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.1372
Cardinals
δ=4.6
Giants
-1½
Steelers @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1323
Texans
δ=15.3
Texans
-4
Lions @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1299
Lions*
δ=2.0
Cowboys
-1½
Patriots @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.1019
Raiders
δ=5.4
Patriots
-4
Panthers @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0284
Bears
δ=3.3
Bears
-7
Falcons @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.0156
Falcons*
δ=4.6
Falcons
-4½
Vikings @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.0138
Vikings*
δ=17.9
Vikings
-1½

Comments:

  • The Broncos are 0-4-1 against the Packers in Wisconsin (the first two meetings were played in Milwaukee).

  • I'm kind of surprised the line is so tentative about picking the Redskins. Yeah, The Redskins are 1-3 in their last 4 meetings, but this is probably the best Redskins team since 2005, and the Rams show every sign of still being awful.

  • Patriots @ Raiders should be an interesting matchup. Remember last year, when Peyton Hillis ran all over the Patriots defense in one of the Browns few wins? The Patriots are going to have to do a lot better against Darren McFadden this week, or things will get ugly again for the Patriots real fast.

  • Somehow, the Falcons season is already on the brink. If they fall to 1-3, especially against the struggling Seahawks, there's going to be a real question about what teams they can beat, especially on the road.

  • Through week 3, the Lions, 49ers, and Ravens have the league's best turnover differential at +6; the Bills are right behind at +5. The Steelers have by far the worst at -9; the Chargers and Chiefs are tied for second at -6.

  • The Bears (14), Seahawks (14), and Falcons (13) have given up the most sacks so far. The Raiders (2), Bills (2), Patriots (3), and Browns (3) the fewest.

  • Defensively, the Cowboys have the most sacks at 13, which suggests that it's not just Tony Romo's grittiness that's been winning them games. The Bills (2), Chiefs (3), and Jaguars (3) have the fewest sacks.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-2)

Right:
Ravens @ Rams
Lions @ Vikings
Packers @ Bears
Steelers @ Colts
Chiefs @ Chargers
Falcons @ Buccaneers

Wrong:

Cardinals @ Seahawks
Kevin Kolb looked very much the inexperienced quarterback in this game. His passing numbers don't look awful (64% completion rate and 252 yards passing), but the Cardinals had 7 drives that ended with a punt or interception. The offense only managed to score 10 points, and the defense is nowhere near good enough to make that stick as a win, even against the lowly Seahawks.
Jets @ Raiders
The Jets defense did not have an answer for Darren McFadden (171 yards on 19 carries). The Jets' offense was (barely) keeping up until their special teams lost a muffed kickoff, giving the Raiders a short field, and shortly thereafter, a two score lead that proved more than the Jets could overcome.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-4, SRS 4-4, Line 5-3)

Dolphins (SRS) @ Browns (APR, Line)
Neither one of these teams looks especially good, but in this game, it was the Browns who were able to rise to the challenge, mounting a late clock-killing drive for the go-ahead score.
Texans (SRS) @ Saints (APR, Line)
This was actually a low scoring game for three quarters, with the Texans more-or-less in control, culminating with a 9-point lead early in the 4th quarter. But that's when the wheels came off for the Texans. The Saints' offense scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives, and the Texans offense just couldn't keep up.
49ers (SRS) @ Bengals (APR, Line)
This was a game of offensive futility, featuring 14 total punts, 2 lost fumbles, and 2 interceptions. The 49ers offense was marginally less futile, and managed to eke out the win.
Patriots (SRS, Line) @ Bills (APR)
Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions for the first time since 2004. I'm not convinced the Bills are especially good (coming back from an 18-point deficit twice in a row is really not a good thing, even if you are 3-0), but they are good enough to beat even the Patriots given that many extra chances at the ball.
Giants (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)
Another breakdown by the Eagles' defense, and another game that Vick couldn't finish, and Kafka couldn't save. Perhaps most surprising, the Giants' injury-depleted defense was still able to hold the Eagles to just 16 points.
Jaguars (APR) @ Panthers (SRS, Line)
APR is still a little flakey after two weeks, so outside knowledge (like the fact that Luke McCown is a bad quarterback, and Cam Newton probably isn't) makes this pick look odd. On the other hand, the Panthers did lose to a pretty bad Cardinals team, and barely beat a really bad Jaguars team. Cam Newton has put up some pretty impressive passing statistics, but as a team, the Panthers really haven't proved much of anything yet.
Broncos (APR) @ Titans (SRS, Line)
Except for their close loss to the highly-ranked Raiders, I don't have a good explanation for why APR likes the Broncos so much. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck continues his late career resurgence, leading the Titans to another win with 311 yards passing and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Seahawks management is left to wonder "what have we done?"
Redskins (SRS) @ Cowboys (APR, Line)
For the second week in a row, the Cowboys scrape out a come-from-behind win, and APR has them in the top 5 for it. They may not be the most dominating team ever, but a couple wins over teams with winning records is more than the Falcons, Bears, and Eagles can say right now.

Totals

A much better week.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 10-616-15-151.6%
SRS 10-619-12-160.9%
Line11-524- 8-075.0%

Monday, September 26, 2011

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.2205
(LW × 0.9379)
3-0Won by 10
@ Bears
2 (↑4)Raiders1.2096
(LW × 1.1138)
2-1Won by 10
vs Jets
3 (-)Bills1.1970
(LW × 0.9979)
3-0Won by 3
vs Patriots
4 (↓2)Jets1.1436
(LW × 0.9130)
2-1Lost by 10
@ Raiders
5 (↑6)Cowboys1.1305
(LW × 1.0972)
2-1Won by 2
vs Redskins
6 (↓2)Patriots1.0977
(LW × 0.9913)
2-1Lost by 3
@ Bills
7 (↓2)Saints1.0948
(LW × 1.0070)
2-1Won by 7
vs Texans
8 (↑4)Redskins1.0401
(LW × 1.0424)
2-1Lost by 2
@ Cowboys
9 (↑10)49ers1.0371
(LW × 1.1992)
2-1Won by 5
@ Bengals
10 (↓2)Broncos1.0135
(LW × 0.9421)
1-2Lost by 3
@ Titans
11 (↓1)Titans1.0082
(LW × 0.9697)
2-1Won by 3
vs Broncos
12 (↓5)Lions1.0005
(LW × 0.9279)
3-0Won by 3
@ Vikings
13 (-)Bengals0.9397
(LW × 0.9738)
1-2Lost by 5
vs 49ers
14 (↑2)Texans0.9361
(LW × 0.9978)
2-1Lost by 7
@ Saints
15 (↓6)Cardinals0.9287
(LW × 0.8670)
1-2Lost by 3
@ Seahawks
16 (↑2)Ravens0.9267
(LW × 1.0644)
2-1Won by 30
@ Rams
17 (↓2)Jaguars0.9202
(LW × 0.9734)
1-2Lost by 6
@ Panthers
18 (↓4)Bears0.9107
(LW × 0.9453)
1-2Lost by 10
vs Packers
19 (↓2)Panthers0.8856
(LW × 1.0039)
1-2Won by 6
vs Jaguars
20 (↑3)Chargers0.8546
(LW × 1.1445)
2-1Won by 3
vs Chiefs
21 (↑5)Steelers0.8267
(LW × 1.1121)
2-1Won by 3
@ Colts
22 (↑3)Buccaneers0.8211
(LW × 1.1026)
2-1Won by 3
vs Falcons
23 (↓1)Giants0.8166
(LW × 1.0601)
2-1Won by 13
@ Eagles
24 (↓4)Browns0.7998
(LW × 0.9407)
2-1Won by 1
vs Dolphins
25 (↑3)Chiefs0.7689
(LW × 1.1057)
0-3Lost by 3
@ Chargers
26 (↑6)Seahawks0.7650
(LW × 1.3582)
1-2Won by 3
vs Cardinals
27 (↓3)Vikings0.7585
(LW × 1.0164)
0-3Lost by 3
vs Lions
28 (↓1)Falcons0.7532
(LW × 1.0141)
1-2Lost by 3
@ Buccaneers
29 (↓8)Eagles0.7298
(LW × 0.8805)
1-2Lost by 13
vs Giants
30 (↓1)Dolphins0.7238
(LW × 1.1424)
0-3Lost by 1
@ Browns
31 (↓1)Colts0.6512
(LW × 1.0945)
0-3Lost by 3
vs Steelers
32 (↓1)Rams0.5967
(LW × 1.0562)
0-3Lost by 30
vs Ravens

Comments:

  • Big movers: the 49ers (↑10) and Eagles (↓8) are the only teams that moved more than 6 spots. Things are settling down, though I'm not sure how much I trust some of the rankings yet...

  • The Packers, Lions, and Bills are the only teams left undefeated after 3 weeks of play.

  • So, thanks to torrential rain, the Panthers barely cover their 3½ line. And the Chargers, who don't have any weather issues, barely managed to beat the hapless Chiefs, and didn't come anywhere near covering their 15 point line. More evidence that I should just never say anything about the size of the point spreads.

  • The Raiders and Bills both add a statement win to their resume this week. How long they can keep things going is an open question, but as long as they keep winning, APR will keep them ranked high.

  • The Broncos are benefiting from a couple 3-point losses to two highly ranked 2-1 teams (the Raiders and Titans). But unless the Packers overlook them, they should fall out of the top 10 and maybe out of the top 15 next week.

  • The good news for the Bears is, they only allowed 3 sacks in Sunday's game, half of last week's total. The bad news is, 3 sacks a game is still way too many if they want Jay Cutler to stay healthy the whole season.

  • The Steelers' victory Sunday night is one of their least impressive in recent memory. More turnovers and just barely beating a very bad Colts team on a last-second field goal doesn't bode well at all for another playoff run.

  • The Rams are a really bad team. Even well into garbage time, their offense only managed one drive longer than 33 yards, and the Raven's were able to drive on their defense pretty much at will.

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.2205
(LW × 0.9379)
3-0Won by 10
@ Bears
2 (↑4)Raiders1.2096
(LW × 1.1138)
2-1Won by 10
vs Jets
3 (-)Bills1.1970
(LW × 0.9979)
3-0Won by 3
vs Patriots
4 (↓2)Jets1.1436
(LW × 0.9130)
2-1Lost by 10
@ Raiders
5 (↑6)Cowboys1.1305
(LW × 1.0972)
2-1Won by 2
vs Redskins
6 (↓2)Patriots1.0977
(LW × 0.9913)
2-1Lost by 3
@ Bills
7 (↓2)Saints1.0948
(LW × 1.0070)
2-1Won by 7
vs Texans
8 (↑4)Redskins1.0401
(LW × 1.0424)
2-1Lost by 2
@ Cowboys
9 (↑10)49ers1.0371
(LW × 1.1992)
2-1Won by 5
@ Bengals
10 (↓2)Broncos1.0135
(LW × 0.9421)
1-2Lost by 3
@ Titans
11 (↓1)Titans1.0082
(LW × 0.9697)
2-1Won by 3
vs Broncos
12 (↓5)Lions1.0005
(LW × 0.9279)
3-0Won by 3
@ Vikings
13 (-)Bengals0.9397
(LW × 0.9738)
1-2Lost by 5
vs 49ers
14 (↑2)Texans0.9361
(LW × 0.9978)
2-1Lost by 7
@ Saints
15 (↓6)Cardinals0.9287
(LW × 0.8670)
1-2Lost by 3
@ Seahawks
16 (↑2)Ravens0.9267
(LW × 1.0644)
2-1Won by 30
@ Rams
17 (↓2)Jaguars0.9202
(LW × 0.9734)
1-2Lost by 6
@ Panthers
18 (↓4)Bears0.9107
(LW × 0.9453)
1-2Lost by 10
vs Packers
19 (↓2)Panthers0.8856
(LW × 1.0039)
1-2Won by 6
vs Jaguars
20 (↑3)Chargers0.8546
(LW × 1.1445)
2-1Won by 3
vs Chiefs
21 (↑5)Steelers0.8267
(LW × 1.1121)
2-1Won by 3
@ Colts
22 (↑3)Buccaneers0.8211
(LW × 1.1026)
2-1Won by 3
vs Falcons
23 (↓1)Giants0.8166
(LW × 1.0601)
2-1Won by 13
@ Eagles
24 (↓4)Browns0.7998
(LW × 0.9407)
2-1Won by 1
vs Dolphins
25 (↑3)Chiefs0.7689
(LW × 1.1057)
0-3Lost by 3
@ Chargers
26 (↑6)Seahawks0.7650
(LW × 1.3582)
1-2Won by 3
vs Cardinals
27 (↓3)Vikings0.7585
(LW × 1.0164)
0-3Lost by 3
vs Lions
28 (↓1)Falcons0.7532
(LW × 1.0141)
1-2Lost by 3
@ Buccaneers
29 (↓8)Eagles0.7298
(LW × 0.8805)
1-2Lost by 13
vs Giants
30 (↓1)Dolphins0.7238
(LW × 1.1424)
0-3Lost by 1
@ Browns
31 (↓1)Colts0.6512
(LW × 1.0945)
0-3Lost by 3
vs Steelers
32 (↓1)Rams0.5967
(LW × 1.0562)
0-3Lost by 30
vs Ravens

Comments:

  • The Packers, Lions, and Bills are the only teams left undefeated after 3 weeks of play.

  • So, thanks to torrential rain, the Panthers barely cover their 3½ line. And the Chargers, who don't have any weather issues, barely managed to beat the hapless Chiefs, and didn't come anywhere near covering their 15 point line. More evidence that I should just never say anything about the size of the point spreads.

  • The Raiders and Bills both add a statement win to their resume this week. How long they can keep things going is an open question, but as long as they keep winning, APR will keep them ranked high.

  • The Broncos are benefiting from a couple 3-point losses to two highly ranked 2-1 teams (the Raiders and Titans). But unless the Packers overlook them, they should fall out of the top 10 and maybe out of the top 15 next week.

  • The good news for the Bears is, they only allowed 3 sacks in Sunday's game, half of last week's total. The bad news is, 3 sacks a game is still way too many if they want Jay Cutler to stay healthy the whole season.

  • The Steelers' victory Sunday night is one of their least impressive in recent memory. More turnovers and just barely beating a very bad Colts team on a last-second field goal doesn't bode well at all for another playoff run.

  • The Rams are a really bad team. Even well into garbage time, their offense only managed one drive longer than 33 yards, and the Raven's were able to drive on their defense pretty much at will.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

NFL Week 3 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Cardinals @
Seahawks
Cardinals
ρ=1.9018
Cardinals
δ=42.8
Cardinals
-3½
Ravens @
Rams
Ravens
ρ=1.5412
Ravens*
δ=28.1
Ravens
-3½
Lions @
Vikings
Lions
ρ=1.4449
Lions
δ=15.2
Lions
-3½
Packers @
Bears
Packers
ρ=1.3509
Packers*
δ=15.4
Packers
-3½
Dolphins @
Browns
Browns
ρ=1.3421
Dolphins
δ=1.0
Browns
-2½
Steelers @
Colts
Steelers
ρ=1.2495
Steelers*
δ=10.6
Steelers
-11
Texans @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.1588
Texans*
δ=3.5
Saints
-4
Jets @
Raiders
Jets
ρ=1.1534
Jets
δ=25.5
Jets
-3½
49ers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1158
49ers
δ=3.9
Bengals
-2½
Patriots @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.0832
Patriots
δ=10.1
Patriots
-9
Giants @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.0759
Giants
δ=1.1
Eagles
-7
Chiefs @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.0737
Chargers
δ=34.1
Chargers
-15
Jaguars @
Panthers
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0716
Panthers
δ=6.5
Panthers
-3½
Broncos @
Titans
Broncos
ρ=1.0346
Titans
δ=5.1
Titans
-7
Redskins @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.0326
Redskins
δ=0.6
Cowboys
-5
Falcons @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0026
Buccaneers
δ=11.4
Buccaneers
-1½

Comments:

  • Like the Ravens, the Bears have had 7½ months to stew over a late-round playoff loss to a division rival. Unlike the Ravens, the Bears have the added sting of a home loss, and the knowledge that a loss this week will put them a long ways back from the division lead. This will be a hard-fought game.

  • I wonder how much NBC wants a do-over for the two early-season Colts games they picked for Sunday Night Football.

  • The 49ers have won just 4 non-division road games since 2002. This week's game at the Bengals is probably the 49ers best chance to add to that total this year, and an early sign as to whether the Cardinals will have a challenger for the NFC West this year.

  • Bucs -1½ is line-speak for "we have no idea how this game is going to go". Last year, the Falcons swept the Bucs, but both games were close. The Falcons seemed to have dropped off from last year, so yeah, this could be a game that turns on the outcome of one play, one bounce of the ball.

  • Can the Chiefs even come close to holding the Chargers to a 15 point margin of victory? They haven't shown much ability to slow down or keep up with their opponents so far. I don't see any reason that will be different this week.

  • Unsurprisingly, the Panthers are favored to win for the first time. Especially after the way the Jaguars got blown out by the Jets, this feels like another "give the points" game.

  • I should say, by way of disclaimer, that my record of picking games against the line is horrible, and if you actually bet money on a game, you must do so on your own responsibility.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

NFL Week 2 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-3)

Right:
Cheifs @ Lions
Jaguars @ Jets (APR deferred)
Texans @ Dolphins
Packers @ Panthers
Browns @ Colts
Rams @ Giants

Wrong:

Buccaneers @ Vikings (SRS deferred)
The Vikings have been a great first-half team so far, outscoring their opponents a combined 34-7. The bad news is, the NFL insists that games be played for four quarters. And the Vikings have been a different, far worse team in the second half, giving up a total of 41 points, and scoring none.
Eagles @ Falcons
The way this game went, you'd think that Michael Vick was the Eagles' most important player on defense. When he was in the game, the Falcons' offense was mostly stopped cold by the Eagles defense. When Vick got knocked out late in the 3rd quarter, all the Eagles' D needed to do was protect their 10 point lead for just less than 17 minutes of football time. But somehow that never happened. The Falcons' offense was able to move the ball down the field for two 80-yard touchdown plays. Vick's loss was a blow to the offense, but the Eagles defensive collapse was at least as big an issue.
Ravens @ Titans
We saw this last year in the playoff game against the Saints, and now again in this game: Matt Hasselbeck can still throw the ball. And when he has a good game, he can throw well on even a good defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens discover that playing on emotion can only get you so far.

Split Picks: (APR: 0-7, SRS 3-4, Line 7-0)

Ouch. Easily APRs' worst week to date.

Bengals (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)
So, it's no surprise that the Bengals, with their rookie quarterback, went to Denver and came away with a loss, right? What is a surprise is that Andy Dalton looked pretty good: 332 yards and 2 touchdowns passing, with no interceptions. Dalton still has a ways to go, but somehow I think Bengals' fans may actually have reason to be optimistic about the future.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)
In week 1, the Bears won because of 3 big plays, and a smothering defense that Matt Ryan just couldn't get started against. In week 2, they faced a quarterback who did get going against their defense. And while the Bears did have a few big plays, it wasn't nearly enough to keep up.
Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
So, the rumors of the Steelers' demise turn out to be greatly exaggerated. And with the Ravens' face-plant against the Titans, the AFC North is still very much in play.
Cardinals (APR) @ Redskins (SRS, Line)
Sometimes, a game is a battle between two teams to see which one is best. And sometimes, it's a battle to see which one is worst. In spite of two interceptions, 3 sacks, and 97 penalty yards, the Cardinals led for most of this game. But the defense let the Redskins drive for a couple late scores that gave them the lead. The Cardinals' last chance was snuffed out on a final, lost fumble. Both of these teams are better than they were last year, but that's a low bar to clear, and they've both got a long way to go to contend at the highest levels of the league.
Raiders (APR) @ Bills (SRS, Line)
I could've used that "sometimes it's a battle to see which one is worst" bit for this game, too. Instead, I will just say that it's really not a good thing when your opponent scores 35 points, even if you do win the game.
Chargers (APR) @ Patriots (SRS, Line)
What's wrong with the Patriots offense? Yeah, Brady put up impressive passing numbers. But their defense turned the Chargers away from the endzone time after time, had 4 take-aways, and somehow this game was within 7 points until very late in the 4th quarter. It seems to me with an advantage like that, the Patriots should've put this game away much earlier.
Cowboys (Line) @ 49ers (APR, SRS)
I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. Last week, they took the Jets to the wire, and except for a couple of mistakes, could've easily won. This week, they need a late comeback and overtime to get by the 49ers. On second thought, maybe that says exactly where the Cowboys are right now: inconsistent.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 6-10 6-1037.5%
SRS 9- 7 9- 756.3%
Line13- 313- 381.3%

Monday, September 19, 2011

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑2)Packers1.3014
(LW × 1.1430)
2-0Won by 7
@ Panthers
2 (↑10)Jets1.2525
(LW × 1.1630)
2-0Won by 29
vs Jaguars
3 (↑13)Bills1.1994
(LW × 1.1244)
2-0Won by 3
vs Raiders
4 (↑2)Patriots1.1074
(LW × 1.0161)
2-0Won by 14
vs Chargers
5 (↑16)Saints1.0872
(LW × 1.3179)
1-1Won by 17
vs Bears
6 (↑3)Raiders1.0860
(LW × 1.0029)
1-1Lost by 3
@ Bills
7 (↓5)Lions1.0782
(LW × 0.9419)
2-0Won by 45
vs Chiefs
8 (↑14)Broncos1.0757
(LW × 1.3659)
1-1Won by 2
vs Bengals
9 (↓5)Cardinals1.0712
(LW × 0.9408)
1-1Lost by 1
@ Redskins
10 (↑7)Titans1.0397
(LW × 1.0726)
1-1Won by 13
vs Ravens
11 (↑6)Cowboys1.0303
(LW × 1.0629)
1-1Won by 3
@ 49ers
12 (↓4)Redskins0.9977
(LW × 0.9205)
2-0Won by 1
vs Cardinals
13 (↓12)Bengals0.9650
(LW × 0.8429)
1-1Lost by 2
@ Broncos
14 (↓3)Bears0.9634
(LW × 0.8923)
1-1Lost by 17
@ Saints
15 (↓3)Jaguars0.9453
(LW × 0.8777)
1-1Lost by 29
@ Jets
16 (↓2)Texans0.9382
(LW × 0.8773)
2-0Won by 10
@ Dolphins
17 (↑2)Panthers0.8821
(LW × 1.0672)
0-2Lost by 7
vs Packers
18 (↓3)Ravens0.8707
(LW × 0.8150)
1-1Lost by 13
@ Titans
19 (↓9)49ers0.8648
(LW × 0.7994)
1-1Lost by 3
vs Cowboys
20 (↑4)Browns0.8503
(LW × 1.2737)
1-1Won by 8
@ Colts
21 (↓14)Eagles0.8288
(LW × 0.7635)
1-1Lost by 3
@ Falcons
22 (↑3)Giants0.7703
(LW × 1.2196)
1-1Won by 12
vs Rams
23 (↓19)Chargers0.7467
(LW × 0.6558)
1-1Lost by 14
@ Patriots
24 (↓5)Vikings0.7462
(LW × 0.9027)
0-2Lost by 4
vs Buccaneers
25 (↓2)Buccaneers0.7447
(LW × 1.1088)
1-1Won by 4
@ Vikings
26 (↑3)Steelers0.7434
(LW × 1.2300)
1-1Won by 24
vs Seahawks
27 (-)Falcons0.7428
(LW × 1.1907)
1-1Won by 3
vs Eagles
28 (↑4)Chiefs0.6954
(LW × 1.4441)
0-2Lost by 45
@ Lions
29 (↑1)Dolphins0.6335
(LW × 1.2346)
0-2Lost by 10
vs Texans
30 (↓2)Colts0.5950
(LW × 0.9812)
0-2Lost by 8
vs Browns
31 (-)Rams0.5649
(LW × 1.1146)
0-2Lost by 12
@ Giants
32 (↓6)Seahawks0.5632
(LW × 0.8973)
0-2Lost by 24
@ Steelers

Comments:

  • Big movers: Saints ↑16, Broncos ↑14, Bills ↑13, Bengals ↓12, Eagles ↓14, Chargers ↓19.

  • The Packers are 2-0, but after giving up nearly 400 passing yards twice in a row, there has to be some real concern that their defense has had a major drop-off.

  • On the other hand, every other NFC playoff team is 1-1(*), and each appears to have troubles of their own. Could the Lions be the Packers biggest threat to a repeat Super Bowl appearance?

  • The Bills, Raiders, and Broncos appear to be holding each other up in the rankings without much actual support. I expect most if not all will all fall back at least to the middle of the rankings in the next week or two.

  • I figured the Chiefs would struggle this season, but with Jamaal Charles out for the season, there has to be a real question if they can even win 4 games this year.

  • Jay Cutler has been sacked 11 times in two games. The Bears O-line needs to get a lot better, really fast, if they want Cutler to stay healthy down the stretch.

(*) ETA: Except, I guess, the Seahawks. They still count as a playoff team, right?

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

NFL Week 2 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Chiefs @
Lions
Lions
ρ=2.3771
Lions
δ=41.0
Lions
-9
Texans @
Dolphins
Texans
ρ=2.0840
Texans
δ=41.0
Texans
-3
Eagles @
Falcons
Eagles
ρ=1.7400
Eagles
δ=36.0
Eagles
-2½
Bengals @
Broncos
Bengals
ρ=1.4537
Bengals
δ=13.0
Broncos
-4½
Packers @
Panthers
Packers
ρ=1.3774
Packers
δ=15.0
Packers
-10½
Bears @
Saints
Bears
ρ=1.3087
Bears
δ=26.0
Saints
-7
Rams @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.2461
Giants
δ=4.0
Giants
-4½
Buccaneers @
Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.2308
push
δ=0.0
Vikings
-3
Cowboys @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.1161
49ers
δ=19.0
Cowboys
-3
Ravens @
Titans
Ravens
ρ=1.1021
Ravens
δ=30.0
Ravens
-6½
Browns @
Colts
Browns
ρ=1.1010
Browns
δ=17.0
Browns
-2
Cardinals @
Redskins
Cardinals
ρ=1.0504
Redskins
δ=7.0
Redskins
-4
Chargers @
Patriots
Chargers
ρ=1.0447
Patriots
δ=7.0
Patriots
-7
Seahawks @
Steelers
Seahawks
ρ=1.0386
Seahawks
δ=12.0
Steelers
-15
Raiders @
Bills
Raiders
ρ=1.0151
Bills
δ=31.0
Bills
-4
Jaguars @
Jets
push
ρ=1.0000
Jets
δ=1.0
Jets
-10

Comments:

  • For the first time, there are a couple of matchups of teams tied in the rankings. One each for APR (Jaguars @ Jets) and SRS (Buccaneers @ Vikings). These will be counted as ties in the result tallies.

  • Bears @ Saints will be a marquee matchup of the afternoon, and a game that the Saints will need to win to avoid falling to 0-2. It will definitely be interesting to see how Brees does against the Bears pass rush, especially Julius Peppers.

  • APR's pick of the Raiders seems pretty flukey to me. In the 8 seasons since their Super Bowl run, the Raiders have won just 6 road games outside the AFC West.

  • Speaking of flukey, the Seahawks over the Steelers? Even a struggling Steelers team should be able to handle the Seahawks, especially in Pittsburgh.

  • Is the Rams' season already over? They'll be on the road facing a Giants' squad stinging from a 14-point loss to the Redskins. After that, they've got the Ravens, Packers, Cowboys, and Saints coming up. Especially without Steven Jackson, they could easily have 5 or 6 losses before they play their first division game week 9.

  • The Cardinals haven't won at the Redskins since 2000. Kevin Kolb still looked pretty green last Sunday, so it seems likely the Cardinals RFK/Landover losing streak will extend past next week.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-5)

Right:
Vikings @ Chargers
Cowboys @ Jets
Eagles @ Rams
Saints @ Packers
Panthers @ Cardinals
Seahawks @ 49ers
Patriots @ Dolphins

Wrong:

Bills @ Chiefs
During the preseason, I mentioned that I thought the Chiefs had regressed from last year. Their offensive struggles continue (the Chiefs had two drives longer than 20 yards), and turnovers gave the Bills a bunch of short fields that they turned into scores.
Falcons @ Bears
The Falcons made a handful of costly mistakes in this game: letting a screen pass go 56 yards for a touchdown, letting Devon Hester get 53 yards on another short pass, and giving up another touchdown to Brian Urlacher on a fumble-sack. Take away even two of those mistakes, and this is a much closer game, and one that the Falcons could have easily won.
Lions @ Buccaneers
Another game that tends to confirm my preseason evaluations. The Lions can't be real happy about nearly letting this one slip away, but it's a good sign that they were able to hold on to a win on the road.
Giants @ Redskins
The Giants plain got out-played in this game. Rex Grossman had a career day against their defense, and their offense couldn't move the ball—just 3 drives longer than 19 yards.
Bengals @ Browns
The Browns just aren't good enough to win when they only score 17 points. Especially when the defense lets Cedric Benson run up and down the field.

Split Picks: (Pythag: 1-3, Line: 3-1)

Raiders (Pythag) @ Broncos (Line)
The Broncos lack of rushing defense strikes again: 190 yards allowed, including 150 by Darren McFadden. An interception and two lost fumbles ended drives that could have given the Broncos the points they needed to win.
Titans (Pythag) @ Jaguars (Line)
The two things that stand out to me in this game is the lack of production from Chris Johnson (9 carries for 24 yards), and the Titans 3rd down conversion rate (4 of 11). On the other side, Luke McCown didn't do anything disastrous, the Jaguars rushed for 163 yards, and converted 9 of 18 3rd downs. Not the most amazing performance this week, but it was enough to get the Jaguars by the Titans.
Colts (Pythag) @ Titans (Line)
No prizes for guessing that the Colts would struggle without Peyton Manning, or that Kerry Collins would look very rusty after missing almost the whole preseason. Still, that was even worse than I was expecting. If Collins had not fumbled twice, and the Colts special teams had not given up a touchdown... well, at least the Texans would've had to play into the second half to win the game.
Steelers (Pythag) @ Ravens (Line)
An ugly game for the defending AFC Champions. The headline has been the Steelers' seven turnovers, but their defense wasn't stopping the Ravens' offense even when they needed to drive the field. The good news for the Steelers is they now have a pretty soft stretch in their schedule, and will have every chance to get things fixed before the rematch in week 9.

Totals

Pythagorean 88
Line 106

Monday, September 12, 2011

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1Bengals1.14481-0Won by 10
@ Browns
2Lions1.14471-0Won by 7
@ Buccaneers
3Packers1.13861-0Won by 8
vs Saints
T 4Cardinals1.13861-0Won by 7
vs Panthers
T 4Chargers1.13861-0Won by 7
vs Vikings
6Patriots1.08981-0Won by 14
@ Dolphins
7Eagles1.08551-0Won by 18
@ Rams
8Redskins1.08391-0Won by 14
vs Giants
9Raiders1.08281-0Won by 3
@ Broncos
1049ers1.08181-0Won by 16
vs Seahawks
11Bears1.07961-0Won by 18
vs Falcons
T12Jaguars1.07701-0Won by 2
vs Titans
T12Jets1.07701-0Won by 3
vs Cowboys
14Texans1.06941-0Won by 27
vs Colts
15Ravens1.06821-0Won by 28
vs Steelers
16Bills1.06671-0Won by 34
@ Chiefs
T17Titans0.96930-1Lost by 2
@ Jaguars
T17Cowboys0.96930-1Lost by 3
@ Jets
T19Vikings0.82660-1Lost by 7
@ Chargers
T19Panthers0.82660-1Lost by 7
@ Cardinals
21Saints0.82500-1Lost by 8
@ Packers
22Broncos0.78750-1Lost by 3
vs Raiders
23Buccaneers0.67160-1Lost by 7
vs Lions
24Browns0.66760-1Lost by 10
vs Bengals
25Giants0.63160-1Lost by 14
@ Redskins
26Seahawks0.62770-1Lost by 16
@ 49ers
27Falcons0.62380-1Lost by 18
@ Bears
28Colts0.60640-1Lost by 27
@ Texans
29Steelers0.60440-1Lost by 28
@ Ravens
30Dolphins0.51320-1Lost by 14
vs Patriots
31Rams0.50690-1Lost by 18
vs Eagles
32Chiefs0.48160-1Lost by 34
vs Bills

Comments:

  • As usual, don't read too much into these rankings. Things will be a lot more settled in a couple more weeks.

  • The good news for the Packers is they score 42 points on the Saints. The bad news is they pretty much needed all of them to win. I know Drew Brees is a very good quarterback, but the Packers defense missed a lot of tackles they really should have made.

  • That was a really bad loss for the Steelers. This is only the second loss by 28+ points in more than 20 years.

  • McNabb and the Vikings offense were pretty bad: 39 total yards passing. And yet, somehow they had the lead going into the 4th quarter. The Vikings will have to do a lot better to avoid a last-place finish in the NFC North.

  • Cam Newton looked good (especially for a rookie), and seemed to pick up Cardinals' blitz well. We'll see how it goes once teams start to get more game footage of Newton to study, but it sure looks like the Panthers picked the right quarterback this time.

  • Tarvaris Jackson actually had an OK game for the Seahawks, but a slow start let the 49ers build a lead, and a couple of special-teams breakdowns put the game out of reach before the Seahawks could catch up.

  • The Cowboys' O-line doesn't look much better than it did last year: Romo was sacked 4 times. He'll have a tough time finishing the year (again) at that rate.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

NFL Week 1 Picks

The lines for the Monday night games are finally up, so it's time for week 1 picks! All line values are from yahoo.

See last year's week 1 picks for an explanation of how this table was generated.

GamePythag
(std)
Pythag
(R/H)
Line
Patriots @
Dolphins
Patriots
(0.3830)
Patriots
(0.4290)
Patriots
-7
Vikings @
Chargers
Chargers
(0.3022)
Chargers
(0.4753)
Chargers
-9
Bills @
Chiefs
Chiefs
(0.2920)
Chiefs
(0.4659)
Chiefs
-6½
Raiders @
Broncos
Raiders
(0.2370)
Raiders
(0.1094)
Broncos
-3
Giants @
Redskins
Giants
(0.2032)
Giants
(0.1952)
Giants
-3
Cowboys @
Jets
Jets
(0.1710)
Jets
(0.2943)
Jets
-4
Eagles @
Rams
Eagles
(0.1637)
Eagles
(0.0532)
Eagles
-4½
Titans @
Jaguars
Titans
(0.1309)
Titans
(0.0553)
Jaguars
-3
Saints @
Packers
Packers
(0.1278)
Packers
(0.1736)
Packers
-4
Panthers @
Cardinals
Cardinals
(0.1265)
Cardinals
(0.2909)
Cardinals
-7
Colts @
Texans
Colts
(0.1208)
Colts
(0.0134)
Texans
-8
Falcons @
Bears
Falcons
(0.1118)
Falcons
(0.1810)
Falcons
-3
Steelers @
Ravens
Steelers
(0.0976)
Steelers
(0.0427)
Ravens
-2½
Seahawks @
49ers
49ers
(0.0818)
49ers
(0.4349)
49ers
-5½
Lions @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
(0.0526)
Buccaneers
(0.0714)
Buccaneers
-1½
Bengals @
Browns
Browns
(0.0007)
Browns
(0.0607)
Browns
-6½

Comments:

  • As usual, week 1 picks are based on each team's Pythagorean projection. This year, the standard and Road/Home versions are in unanimous agreement.

  • The NFL started opening the regular season with a game on Thursday night in 2002. Since then, the home team is 8-1 in these games.

  • Most of these games have finished relatively close. The Colts are the only team that won by more than 11 points, ironically beating the Saints 41-10 to open the 2007 season.

  • Speaking of the Colts, Peyton Manning's health has been a big issue. In 2008, when Manning missed the preseason with a knee issue, the Colts started out 3-4 in their first 7 games, so it's no stretch to predict the Colts will struggle again this year. But the Colts finished 2008 with 9 wins and a 12-4 record, so it's too early to call them out of it as long as Manning can eventually get back under center.

  • The one pick that seems most likely to be wrong is for Lions @ Buccaneers. The Lions (especially on defense) look a lot better than they were last year, while the Bucs look more-or-less the same as last year (an OK team that took full advantage of a very soft schedule). This will definitely be a game to keep an eye on Sunday afternoon.

  • Update: wow! Reports are coming in Tuesday afternoon that the Jaguars have cut their erstwhile starting quarterback (and one of the few bright spots on offense last year) David Garrard. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

Friday, September 2, 2011

1961 + 50

The 1958 season is probably the lowest point in the history of the Green Bay Packers franchise. In 12 games played, they managed only one win and one tie. To date, it's the only season the Packers didn't manage at least two wins. But if you look at the roster for that 1958 team, there are a lot of familiar names, including some Hall-of-Fame players: Bart Starr, Paul Hornung, Max McGee, Jim Ringo, Ray Nitschke, Forrest Gregg, Jim Taylor. All of these guys played important roles in the Packers' championship runs of the 1960s.

But one of the key pieces for the Packers didn't arrive until 1959: Coach Vince Lombardi. When he took over, he had an immediate impact: in Lombardi's first season, the Packers had a winning record for the first time since 1947. In Lombardi's second season, the Packers returned to the playoffs for the first time since 1944.

50 years ago this month, the Packers began their third season under Coach Lombardi, and he took the first step from local hero to all-time NFL great. In 1961, the Packers won the NFL Western division, advancing to the Championship game, where they beat the New York Giants in convincing fashion.

The 1961 season was the start of a (so far) unprecedented streak of 5 NFL Championships (and victories in the first two Super Bowls), accomplished in just 7 years. No other team, no other coach has matched that level of dominance. The Browns played in 6 straight NFL championship games from 1950-1955 (winning 3). The Steelers with coach Chuck Noll won 4 Super Bowls in 6 years in the 1970s. The 49ers won 4 Super Bowls in the 1980s, and another after the 1994 season under coaches Bill Walsh and George Seifert. Those are the only cases where any teams have even come close to matching what Coach Lombardi and the Green Bay Packers accomplished in the 1960s.

Vince Lombardi stepped down as head coach of the Packers after the 1967 season, and it quickly became apparent that he was a keystone of those championship teams. In the 24 seasons following Coach Lombardi's resignation, the Packers had just 4 winning seasons and two playoff appearances. This streak of futility didn't end until 1992, when newly-hired General Manager Ron Wolf brought in Mike Holmgren to be head coach, along with players like Brett Favre and Reggie White to be the core of a new championship run.

When Coach Lombardi arrived in Green Bay, the Packers could already lay claim to 6 NFL Championship titles. When he left, that total had been raised to 11, and Green Bay had an indisputable claim to the nickname "Titletown". And since his name was given to the Super Bowl trophy, the name "Lombardi" has become justifiably associated with success at the highest level of professional football.