| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Cardinals ρ=1.9018 | Cardinals δ=42.8 | Cardinals -3½ |
| Ravens @ Rams | Ravens ρ=1.5412 | Ravens* δ=28.1 | Ravens -3½ |
| Lions @ Vikings | Lions ρ=1.4449 | Lions δ=15.2 | Lions -3½ |
| Packers @ Bears | Packers ρ=1.3509 | Packers* δ=15.4 | Packers -3½ |
| Dolphins @ Browns | Browns ρ=1.3421 | Dolphins δ=1.0 | Browns -2½ |
| Steelers @ Colts | Steelers ρ=1.2495 | Steelers* δ=10.6 | Steelers -11 |
| Texans @ Saints | Saints ρ=1.1588 | Texans* δ=3.5 | Saints -4 |
| Jets @ Raiders | Jets ρ=1.1534 | Jets δ=25.5 | Jets -3½ |
| 49ers @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.1158 | 49ers δ=3.9 | Bengals -2½ |
| Patriots @ Bills | Bills ρ=1.0832 | Patriots δ=10.1 | Patriots -9 |
| Giants @ Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.0759 | Giants δ=1.1 | Eagles -7 |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.0737 | Chargers δ=34.1 | Chargers -15 |
| Jaguars @ Panthers | Jaguars* ρ=1.0716 | Panthers δ=6.5 | Panthers -3½ |
| Broncos @ Titans | Broncos ρ=1.0346 | Titans δ=5.1 | Titans -7 |
| Redskins @ Cowboys | Cowboys ρ=1.0326 | Redskins δ=0.6 | Cowboys -5 |
| Falcons @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.0026 | Buccaneers δ=11.4 | Buccaneers -1½ |
Comments:
Like the Ravens, the Bears have had 7½ months to stew over a late-round playoff loss to a division rival. Unlike the Ravens, the Bears have the added sting of a home loss, and the knowledge that a loss this week will put them a long ways back from the division lead. This will be a hard-fought game.
I wonder how much NBC wants a do-over for the two early-season Colts games they picked for Sunday Night Football.
The 49ers have won just 4 non-division road games since 2002. This week's game at the Bengals is probably the 49ers best chance to add to that total this year, and an early sign as to whether the Cardinals will have a challenger for the NFC West this year.
Bucs -1½ is line-speak for "we have no idea how this game is going to go". Last year, the Falcons swept the Bucs, but both games were close. The Falcons seemed to have dropped off from last year, so yeah, this could be a game that turns on the outcome of one play, one bounce of the ball.
Can the Chiefs even come close to holding the Chargers to a 15 point margin of victory? They haven't shown much ability to slow down or keep up with their opponents so far. I don't see any reason that will be different this week.
Unsurprisingly, the Panthers are favored to win for the first time. Especially after the way the Jaguars got blown out by the Jets, this feels like another "give the points" game.
I should say, by way of disclaimer, that my record of picking games against the line is horrible, and if you actually bet money on a game, you must do so on your own responsibility.
