NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Broncos	1.0556 (LW × 0.9945)	7-3	Won by 7 vs Chargers
2 (↑3)	Patriots	1.0359 (LW × 1.0178)	7-3	Won by 35 vs Colts
3 (↑3)	49ers	1.0302 (LW × 1.0246)	7-2-1	Won by 25 vs Bears
4 (-)	Packers	1.0247 (LW × 0.9994)	7-3	Won by 4 @ Lions
5 (↓4)	Texans	1.0244 (LW × 0.9643)	9-1	Won by 6 vs Jaguars
6 (↑2)	Seahawks	0.9908 (LW × 1.0004)	6-4	Bye
7 (↓4)	Bears	0.9827 (LW × 0.9521)	7-3	Lost by 25 @ 49ers
8 (↓1)	Falcons	0.9761 (LW × 0.9718)	9-1	Won by 4 vs Cardinals
9 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9524 (LW × 1.0080)	8-2	Won by 3 @ Steelers
10 (↓1)	Giants	0.9481 (LW × 0.9992)	6-4	Bye
11 (↑2)	Buccaneers	0.9270 (LW × 1.0110)	6-4	Won by 6 @ Panthers
12 (↑3)	Saints	0.9261 (LW × 1.0284)	5-5	Won by 21 @ Raiders
13 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9188 (LW × 0.9813)	6-4	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
14 (-)	Vikings	0.9133 (LW × 1.0027)	6-4	Bye
15 (↓3)	Cowboys	0.9044 (LW × 0.9792)	5-5	Won by 3 vs Browns
16 (-)	Lions	0.8866 (LW × 0.9927)	4-6	Lost by 4 vs Packers
17 (↑2)	Bengals	0.8848 (LW × 1.0228)	5-5	Won by 22 @ Chiefs
18 (↑8)	Jets	0.8677 (LW × 1.0373)	4-6	Won by 14 @ Rams
19 (↑1)	Colts	0.8587 (LW × 0.9965)	6-4	Lost by 35 @ Patriots
20 (↓2)	Panthers	0.8557 (LW × 0.9810)	2-8	Lost by 6 vs Buccaneers
21 (↑2)	Redskins	0.8541 (LW × 1.0081)	4-6	Won by 25 vs Eagles
22 (-)	Chargers	0.8528 (LW × 0.9981)	4-6	Lost by 7 @ Broncos
23 (↑2)	Bills	0.8512 (LW × 1.0167)	4-6	Won by 5 vs Dolphins
24 (↓3)	Dolphins	0.8506 (LW × 0.9938)	4-6	Lost by 5 @ Bills
25 (↓8)	Rams	0.8336 (LW × 0.9529)	3-6-1	Lost by 14 vs Jets
26 (↓2)	Titans	0.8293 (LW × 0.9902)	4-6	Bye
27 (-)	Cardinals	0.8277 (LW × 0.9984)	4-6	Lost by 4 @ Falcons
28 (↑2)	Browns	0.8062 (LW × 1.0243)	2-8	Lost by 3 @ Cowboys
29 (↓1)	Raiders	0.7694 (LW × 0.9717)	3-7	Lost by 21 vs Saints
30 (↓1)	Eagles	0.7600 (LW × 0.9651)	3-7	Lost by 25 @ Redskins
31 (-)	Jaguars	0.7335 (LW × 1.0210)	1-9	Lost by 6 @ Texans
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7008 (LW × 0.9763)	1-9	Lost by 22 vs Bengals

Comments:

• So remember how I was saying that ESPN had the Colts overrated at #11? Yeah, that's pretty much what I was talking about, right there.

• On the other hand, that prediction that the Raiders could upset the Saints? Let us never speak of it again.

• On the gripping hand, the Saints still have the 49ers, and road games at the Falcons and Giants. Barring a miraculous turn-around on their defense, it will be a major accomplishment for them to make it to 9 wins this year.

• The Falcons get to 9 wins, but they can't be real happy about Matt Ryan's 5 interceptions, or needing a 4th-quarter come-back to beat the Cardinals. They may clinch a bye in the playoffs, but it's real easy to see them having another 1-and-done playoffs, too.

NFL Week 1 Picks

Game	Pythag	Pythag RH	Line
Rams @ Lions	Lions 0.4721	Lions 0.6523	Lions -8½
Redskins @ Saints	Saints 0.3964	Saints 0.5669	Saints -9½
Steelers @ Broncos	Steelers 0.3352	Steelers 0.1009	Broncos -1
Falcons @ Chiefs	Falcons 0.3326	Falcons 0.1970	Falcons -2
Colts @ Bears	Bears 0.3150	Bears 0.5308	Bears -9½
Eagles @ Browns	Eagles 0.3022	Eagles 0.3044	Eagles -8
Panthers @ Buccaneers	Panthers 0.2510	Panthers 0.1243	Panthers -2½
Patriots @ Titans	Patriots 0.2085	Patriots 0.2004	Patriots -6½
Bengals @ Ravens	Ravens 0.1597	Ravens 0.2465	Ravens -6
Chargers @ Raiders	Chargers 0.1530	Chargers 0.0701	Chargers -1½
Dolphins @ Texans	Texans 0.1490	Texans 0.1828	Texans -10
Bills @ Jets	Jets 0.1127	Jets 0.4197	Jets -3
Seahawks @ Cardinals	Seahawks 0.0755	Cardinals* 0.0534	Seahawks -2½
Cowboys @ Giants	Cowboys 0.0453	Giants* 0.1189	Giants -4
49ers @ Packers	49ers 0.0271	Packers* 0.2499	Packers -5½
Jaguars @ Vikings	Vikings 0.0131	Vikings 0.2167	Vikings -4½

Comments:

Maybe it's because I didn't watch as much preseason football this year as compared to last, but mostly what I see in these games is a lot of unanswered questions:

• Are the Giants going to take up where they left off in the playoffs, or how they played in the regular season?

• Can the Saints overcome all the offseason drama to take care of RG3 and the Redskins? (The last time the Redskins and Saints played was in 2009, and the Saints needed a 10-point comeback and overtime to secure a win.)

• Along with the Redskins and RG3, there's a lot of teams starting rookie quarterbacks. With guys like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton starting and succeeding from year one, the old conventional wisdom of letting a rookie QB sit on the bench for a year or two could be over.

• Can Peyton Manning perform as well with his new team as he did with the Colts? How well will his surgically repaired neck (not to mention his 36 year-old body) hold up to another season of hits?

• How much is it going to affect MJD to have missed the entire preseason? (Of course, given how bad the Jaguars are likely to be, it may not matter much.)

• How effective is Adrian Peterson going to be? Stories like this one sure make it sound like he's not anywhere near 100% recovered from his injury yet.

• Similarly, how effective is Brian Urlacher going to be? He's a big part of the Bears' defense, and that defense is a big part of how they win games.

• How much better is the Packers' defense going to be this year? Can they hold the 49ers offense under 350 yards? (A mark the Packers' D only made 3 times last year). Can the Packers' offense continue to shred opposing defenses like they (mostly) did last year?

The good news is, we start getting answers Wednesday night.

NFL: Pythagorean Projection 2011 -> 2012

We're coming down to training camps and the start of preseason football, so it's time for this year's edition of Pythagorean Projection!

Team	Projected Wins	Note
Rams	2.3	New HC
Colts	3.3	New HC, QB
Buccaneers	3.5	New HC
Chiefs	4.0	New HC
Browns	4.9	New QB
Jaguars	5.2	New HC
Vikings	5.5	Adrian Peterson coming off injury
Redskins	5.8	New QB
Broncos	5.8	Peyton Manning
Raiders	6.3	New HC, QB (again)
Bills	6.6
Cardinals	7.0
Panthers	7.5
Giants	7.9
Seahawks	8.2	New QB?
Titans	8.2	New QB?
Bears	8.3	Cutler &co healthy?
Jets	8.4	Tebow!
Dolphins	8.5	New HC, QB(?)
Cowboys	8.6
Bengals	8.6
Chargers	8.7
Falcons	9.3
Eagles	9.8
Lions	9.9	Lots of off-field drama
Texans	10.9	Schaub healthy
Ravens	11.2	Terrel Suggs hurt
Steelers	11.2
Patriots	11.6
Packers	11.9	Defense has to be better. Right?
Saints	12.1	New HC, DC
49ers	12.3

Comments:

• The Rams are a really bad franchise. Four years during the "Greatest Show on Turf" era are the only winning seasons they've posted since 1989. Jeff Fisher seems like a pretty good coach, but he's got his work cut out for him to make something of that team.

• The Bengals are another team with a long history of mostly losing seasons. If they make it to 9 wins in 2012, it will be the first time since 81-82 that they've had back-to-back winning seasons.

• I wonder how good Peyton Manning will be this year. 2010 was really not a good year for him, although it's hard to say how much that (in hindsight) weak supporting cast was at fault. But now he's got a new team, a new coach, and who-knows-what for a receiving corps. The good news is it could easily be another year where 9 or 10 wins will take the AFC West, so the Broncos should have some margin for error.

• It seems like the Dolphins could be on the verge of... well, not sucking as much as lately, anyway. But they need to win some home games, and keep their quarterback (whoever that turns out to be) healthy and productive for the whole season. The list of Dolphins starting quarterbacks since Marino retired is a rogues gallery of has-beens and never-wases. And the list of seasons where they had a quarterback even make it to 15 starts is pathetically short.

• The good news for Tarvaris Jackson is that 2011 was one of the best seasons of his career. The bad news is, that was only good for a 7-7 record, and it's not clear he's got a lot of room for improvement. If Matt Flynn looks anywhere near as good in preseason as he did in his week 17 start last year, Pete Carroll is going to be hard pressed not give Flynn the starting spot.

• The Saints have to be an early candidate for the team most likely to fall well short of their projection. Given the bounty scandal, suspension of coaches and players, as well as the drama of Brees' protracted contract negotiation, they're facing a lot of pretty major distractions and setbacks this season.

• I think the 49ers are going to be hard pressed to make it to 12 wins this year. I feel like they played at least a little over their heads in 2011, and they're facing a tougher slate of opponents this year. Their offense can be pretty weak at times (especially on the road), and they're not going to be flying under anyone's radar in 2012...

NFL Wrapup: APR Picks by Team

APR's pick results by team, for weeks 2-17 of the regular season. You may remember that the Jets and Jaguars had equal power in the week 1 power rankings, and so APR didn't have a pick for their week 2 matchup. This is recorded as a tie for W-L-T purposes.

Record	Team	Comments
14-1	Packers	APR never picked the Packers to lose
13-2	Colts, Rams	Consistently bad
12-3	Browns, Vikings, Buccaneers
11-4	Falcons, Panthers, Bengals, Texans, Patriots, Saints
10-4-1	Jaguars
10-5	Lions, Dolphins, Steelers	16 teams at or above 10-5
9-6	Ravens, Bears, 49ers, Titans	16 teams at or below 9-6
8-6-1	Jets
8-7	Bills, Cowboys, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Redskins
7-8	Cardinals	Not too surprising, given how many of their games came down to the final play.
6-9	Raiders	A strong start, but too many injuries, along with no depth at quarterback.
5-10	Giants, Eagles, Seahawks	How do you figure a team that got swept by the Redskins, and won the Super Bowl?

NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Giants @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

In the game picks for the Super Bowl, I identified two things I thought the Patriots needed to do to win: 1) don't turn the ball over, and 2) establish a 2-score lead. They didn't do either one.

The Patriots only had one turnover, but it was a costly one: it came early in the 4th quarter, on 1st+10, near midfield. If the Patriots had managed to sustain the drive, at the very least it would've taken time off the clock. And, of course, it would've been huge to have scored on that drive—a touchdown would have established that 2-score lead, and perhaps put the game out of reach. Even a field-goal would've helped, meaning that a Giants' touchdown would have (with a 2-point conversion) only meant a 3-point lead.

The Giants, for their part, did a masterful job of steering the game to their strengths—kept it a close, low-scoring defense-dominated affair. Throughout the playoffs, I kept expecting the "bad Giants" to make an appearance—the team that lost 20 turnovers in 8 games, the team that needed a 21-point 4th-quarter come-back to beat the Cardinals. But that never happened, and I am forced to conclude that the Giants are much better than their record when they don't turn the ball over.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	0-1	5-6	45.5%
SRS	0-1	5-6	45.5%
Line	0-1	6-5	54.5%

More to come!

There's still a few more season wrap-up posts to come. I'm also planning to have some off-season posts based on analysis of historical data, so you may want to check in once in a while (or just subscribe to the RSS feed).

NFL Super Bowl Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Saints	1.0909 (LW × 1.0092)	14-4	Bye
2 (↑1)	Giants	1.0826 (LW × 1.0479)	13-7	Won by 4 @ Patriots
3 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0589 (LW × 0.9852)	15-4	Lost by 4 vs Giants
4 (-)	49ers	1.0392 (LW × 1.0112)	14-4	Bye
5 (-)	Eagles	0.9969 (LW × 1.0085)	8-8	Bye
6 (↑1)	Packers	0.9833 (LW × 1.0127)	15-2	Bye
7 (↓1)	Ravens	0.9785 (LW × 1.0004)	13-5	Bye
8 (-)	Steelers	0.9529 (LW × 1.0015)	12-5	Bye
9 (-)	Seahawks	0.9487 (LW × 1.0066)	7-9	Bye
10 (-)	Dolphins	0.9407 (LW × 1.0044)	6-10	Bye
11 (-)	Falcons	0.9181 (LW × 1.0091)	10-7	Bye
12 (-)	Cowboys	0.9173 (LW × 1.0142)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Cardinals	0.9065 (LW × 1.0065)	8-8	Bye
14 (-)	Lions	0.8959 (LW × 1.0061)	10-7	Bye
15 (-)	Jets	0.8890 (LW × 1.0058)	8-8	Bye
16 (-)	Texans	0.8754 (LW × 1.0025)	11-7	Bye
17 (-)	Chargers	0.8711 (LW × 1.0023)	8-8	Bye
18 (-)	Titans	0.8431 (LW × 1.0034)	9-7	Bye
19 (↑2)	Panthers	0.8384 (LW × 1.0051)	6-10	Bye
20 (-)	Bengals	0.8378 (LW × 1.0021)	9-8	Bye
21 (↑1)	Bears	0.8369 (LW × 1.0041)	8-8	Bye
22 (↓3)	Broncos	0.8350 (LW × 0.9983)	9-9	Bye
23 (-)	Chiefs	0.8262 (LW × 1.0009)	7-9	Bye
24 (-)	Redskins	0.8101 (LW × 1.0086)	5-11	Bye
25 (-)	Raiders	0.7985 (LW × 1.0031)	8-8	Bye
26 (-)	Browns	0.7961 (LW × 1.0023)	4-12	Bye
27 (-)	Vikings	0.7950 (LW × 1.0055)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Bills	0.7821 (LW × 1.0028)	6-10	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7813 (LW × 1.0026)	5-11	Bye
30 (-)	Rams	0.7635 (LW × 1.0059)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Colts	0.7550 (LW × 1.0009)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Buccaneers	0.6894 (LW × 1.0062)	4-12	Bye

Comments:

• The Giants become the first 7-loss team to win the Super Bowl. There's only been three 6-loss teams to win (1988 49ers, 2007 Giants, and the 2010 Packers).

• Prior to this game, the Patriots had the most Super Bowl appearances (6) without repeating an opponent. There are three teams with 5 appearances and no repeated opponents (Packers, Raiders, and Broncos).

NFL Super Bowl Pick

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Giants @ Patriots	Patriots* ρ=1.0403	Patriots δ=5.8	Patriots -2½

Comments:

• Everybody likes the Patriots. The Giants haven't been favored to win since the Wild Card round.

• The Giants' season has been a tale of turnovers. They were 2-6 when they turned the ball over 2 or more times, and (including the playoffs) 10-1 when they had no more than 1 turnover.

• Also of note: in the Divisional and Championship rounds, the Giants faced the two defenses that generated the most turnovers in the league, and had exactly one turnover on offense in those games.

• The Patriots have turned the ball over 5 times in the playoffs (twice to the Broncos, three times to the Ravens).

• This doesn't necessarily mean the Patriots are doomed. The Giants have not played well from behind, going 3-7 when they've fallen behind by more than 7 points.

• But I think to win, the Patriots are going to have to do two things they didn't in playing the Ravens: 1) avoid turnovers, and 2) establish a two-score lead.

NFL Wrapup: APR vs. ESPN, 2011

Starting with week 4, I posted a contrast of APR's power rankings with ESPN's weekly power rankings. This is the 2011 season wrap-up for that series of posts.

For each week, a team is counted if it has a ±8 differential listed.

Teams ESPN liked more than APR:

Giants (5 weeks, 3 weeks on the bubble)

ESPN had them ranked as high as #6 (after their win over the Patriots), while APR had them ranked as low as #27 (after their loss to the Seahawks). It would be easy to make a post-hoc justification of EPSN's ranking based on the Giants' Super Bowl appearance, but the fact is, the Giants had, for the most part, a very unremarkable regular season.

Steelers (3 weeks)

The Steelers had a rocky start to the season, including an embarrassing week 1 loss to the Ravens, and a 3-point win over the hapless Colts that came on a last-second field goal. As a result, they spent 3 weeks right on the edge of this category.

Raiders (2 weeks, 2 weeks on the bubble)

When Jason Campbell and Darren McFadden were both healthy, the Raiders probably were the class of the AFC West. After they went down, their various replacements simply never preformed at that same level.

Chargers (2 weeks, 1 week on the bubble)

The Chargers have had a reputation of slow starts and strong finishes in the regular season. As a result, ESPN has developed a habit of overlooking those slow starts. The trouble is, the other AFC West teams are no longer as weak as they once were, and so those strong finishes are not so easy to come by.

Also-rans

Chiefs (1 week, 3 weeks on the bubble), Lions (1 week, 1 week on the bubble), Buccaneers (1 week)

Teams APR liked more than ESPN:

Cowboys (3 weeks, 2 weeks on the bubble)

The Cowboys played a lot of good (or, at least contending) teams close, which APR likes. The problem was, too many times they came out on the losing end of "close".

Dolphins (3 weeks, 2 weeks on the bubble)

The Dolphins had a late-season surge, which raised them up in APR's rankings. Unfortunately, it was too late to contend for a playoff spot, which got them ignored by ESPN.

Seahawks (2 weeks, 2 weeks on the bubble)

The Seahawks are another team that had a combination of close losses and a late season surge. But they were an also-ran team in what has been one of the weakest divisions, and were never really in contention for a playoff spot.

Bengals (2 weeks, 2 weeks on the bubble)

The Bengals only had one win against a team with a winning record, but they did manage to go 6-2 the first half of the season, which impressed APR more than ESPN.

Eagles (2 weeks)

Another team with a too-little, to-late late season surge. They could be a real contender for the NFC East next year.

Broncos (2 weeks)

APR liked the Broncos early, when they had some close losses to teams that were doing well.

Also-rans

Jaguars (1 week, 2 weeks on the bubble)

NFL Wrapup: Pythagorean Projection vs. Reality

As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.

Teams are sorted by the magnatude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.

This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.

Team	Actual	Proj.	Diff.	Note
Steelers	12	12.1	-0.1
Dolphins	6	6.2	-0.2
Giants	9	9.2	-0.2
Titans	9	8.5	0.5
Patriots	13	12.3	0.7
Redskins	5	5.9	-0.9
Raiders	8	8.9	-0.9
Cowboys	8	7.0	1.0	Romo healthy all season
Falcons	10	11.2	-1.2
Jaguars	5	6.4	-1.4	David Garrard cut at the end of preseason
Eagles	8	9.4	-1.4
Ravens	12	10.6	1.4
Seahawks	7	5.5	1.5
Bears	8	9.5	-1.5	Injuries
Bills	6	4.4	1.6	Better defense, at least for a few games
Jets	8	9.8	-1.8	Sanchez had 18 interceptions
Browns	4	6.1	-2.1
Chiefs	7	9.1	-2.1	Injuries, coaching
Lions	10	7.8	2.2	Matt Stafford healthy the whole season
Broncos	8	5.2	2.8	Tim Tebow
Chargers	8	10.9	-2.9
Bengals	9	6.1	2.9	Andy Dalton and A.J. Green
Texans	10	7.1	2.9	Much better defense
Saints	13	10.1	2.9	Drew Brees' record-breaking season
Packers	15	12.1	2.9	Aaron Rodgers' MVP season
Vikings	3	6.0	-3.0	No more Favre
Panthers	6	2.4	3.6	Cam Newton
Cardinals	8	4.4	3.6	Better defense and Patrick Peterson
Buccaneers	4	8.7	-4.7	Much tougher schedule
Rams	2	6.8	-4.8	Was 2010 a fluke year for the Rams?
49ers	13	6.8	6.2	Jim Harbaugh, coach of the year?
Colts	2	9.1	-7.1	No Peyton Manning

Comments:

• With the exception of a few extreme cases, most teams came fairly close to their projected win mark this year.

• In hindsight, the Colts' 9.1 projected wins, along with the fact that they barely made it to 10 wins last year were some warning signs of serious problems in Indianapolis.

• I'm not really sure what happened with the 49ers this year. There defense has been pretty solid for a few years now. Maybe they just needed someone who could make the best use of the offensive players they had? Frank Gore and Alex Smith both did very well this season.

• Last year, the Rams' defense had a stand-out season, holding their opponents to 20 points or less in 10 games. This year, they only held their opponents to 20 points or less in 4 games. That's the difference between 2010 and 2011 right there.

• Last summer, I speculated that the truncated off-season would hurt teams with new coaches and in need of free agent help. But with the exception of the Eagles and their many free agents, I'm not sure there are any teams that can blame their troubles on the short off-season.

NFL Wrapup: Significance of the first two games

This is a breakdown of how teams did, grouped by their standings after the week 2 games. Click here to see all the posts on this topic.

	Team	Standing	Note
WW	Packers	15- 1
Teams	Patriots+	13- 3
(7)	Texans+	10- 6
	Lions	10- 6
	Jets	8- 8
	Bills	6-10
	Redskins	5-11	Avg wins: 9.6
WL	Ravens+	12- 4
Teams	49ers+	11- 3
(9)	Bengals	9- 7
	Cardinals	8- 8
	Chargers	8- 8
	Raiders	8- 8
	Bears	8- 8
	Eagles	8- 8
	Jaguars	5-11	Avg wins: 8.6
LW	Steelers	12- 4
Teams	Saints+	11- 3
(9)	Falcons	10- 6
	Giants+	9- 7
	Titans	9- 7
	Broncos+	8- 8
	Cowboys	8- 8
	Browns	4-12
	Buccaneers	4-12	Avg wins: 8.3
LL	Seahawks	7- 9
Teams	Chiefs	7- 9
(7)	Dolphins	6-10
	Panthers	6-10
	Vikings	3-13
	Rams	2-14
	Colts	2-14	Avg wins: 4.7

Comments

• Playoff teams are listed in bold. Teams with a + are teams that won at least one playoff game.

• This year's WL and LW grouping looks a little more like the results for the historical data set. In both cases, the data is centered around 8 wins or so, but with the LW set noticably more spread out. (Note that only 3 of the WL teams more than a game away from 8 wins.)

2011 Championship Week Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

I suppose the most surprising thing about this game is that the Ravens offense performed as well as they did. They had 4 drives of 65 yards or longer, all ending with a score except for that final missed field goal. And the missed field goal at the end of regulation has to be particularly painful—the Ravens went toe-to-toe with the Patriots the whole game, and would've had a decent shot at winning if they had forced overtime.

I have to say, I wasn't overly impressed with Tom Brady's performance in this game. 14 incompletions, no touchdowns and two interceptions gave him easily his lowest passer ratining (57.5) of the season. Yeah, one of those picks was pretty flukey, but the fact that they even tried such a high-risk throw against the Ravens' defense suggests to me a pretty high level of frustration. I suspect the Patriots offense will have to be more patient to succeed against the Giants defense.

Giants @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)

As predicted, this game was decided on turnovers: one muffed punt gave the Giants field position for the tying score, and a second fumble gave them field position for the winning field goal.

The Giants had an astonishing 17 drives in this game (including 3 in overtime). Only 3 of them longer than 31 yards. The 49ers defense gave them a real chance to win this game, but lack of production on offense, and those two critical turnovers, tipped the game to the Giants' favor.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	1-1	5-5	50.0%
SRS	1-1	5-5	50.0%
Line	1-1	6-4	60.0%

Stay Tuned!

I'll have some more season wrap-up posts this week, and the Super Bowl pick next week.

NFL Conference Championship Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Ravens @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0926	Patriots δ=4.6	Patriots -7½
Giants @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.0549	49ers δ=4.3	49ers -2½

Comments:

• The latest reports are the Ravens should have Ed Reed for their game against the Patriots. They're probably going to need their defense at full strength to come away with a win, especially the way the Ravens' offense played against the Texans.

• The Patriots are coming off their first playoff win in four years, and if their defense can play as well against the Ravens as they did against the Broncos, they should have a relatively easy time advancing to the Super Bowl.

• Last Sunday, the Giants seemed to have the upper hand over the Packers for virtually the whole game. In spite of that, they were only leading by 7 points at the start of the 4th quarter (and that margin provided by what was basically a fluke touchdown).

  The Giants will likely need a lot better production from their offense to have a chance to beat the 49ers.

• For the first 56 minutes, the 49ers offense had a very unimpressive performance against the Saints. Just two drives longer than 32 yards, and only 10 points off all those turnovers.

  But in the final 4 minutes of the game, Alex Smith managed to produce, by a good margin, the 49ers two best drives of the game. Both 80+ yards in length, and both ending in touchdowns. It will make it a lot easier for he 49ers to come away with a win if their offense can play more like those last 4 minutes, and less like the first 56.

• Given the way the Giants and 49ers offenses both played last Sunday, it seems very likely that the winner of their matchup will be determined by which defense can win the turnover battle.

NFL Division Pick Results

It's been a football cliché for a long time that, especially in the playoffs, you have to win the turnover battle. The reality behind the cliché was hammered home with a vengeance in three of the four games this weekend.

Winning team in bold.

Broncos @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

Like last year's Seahawks, the Broncos were easily the weakest division winner, but managed to pull out a home upset win in the Wild Card round. And like last year, they looked a lot more like their record in the Divisional round.

It may have been the competition (or the lack thereof), but the Patriots defense looked as good in this game as they have all season. The Broncos only had two drives longer than 35 yards, both of them well into garbage time. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense did what they've done most of the season—scored early and often. They put this game away early, and should be well rested for next week.

Saints (APR, SRS, Line) @ 49ers

The 49ers have made a living this season playing very good defense, including producing more turnovers (38) than any other team in the league.

As I observed in the power rankings, losing the turnover battle is a recipe for losing in the playoffs. It's remarkable the Saints were able to come back with a late lead, and only lost because the 49ers were able to drive for an answering score. If the Saints had held on, it would have been just the second time in the playoffs a team had a -4 turnover margin, and still won.

Texans @ Ravens (APR, SRS, Line)

The Texans, as much as any team this weekend, have to be wondering what might have been. They played the Ravens close for the whole game, and had a chance for a tying touchdown in the final minute of the game. If T.J. Yates hadn't been intercepted 3 times, they would've had a real chance to win the game.

As for the Ravens, their defense did what it needed to do—produce turnovers and keep the Texans out of the end zone. But it's not a good sign that their offense was only able to score 20 points, even with 4 extra chances at the ball.

Giants @ Packers (APR, SRS, Line)

This was a shocking display of offensive ineptitude on the part of the Packers. The last time they lost 3 fumbles in a game was more than four years ago (The last time they lost 3 fumbles and won was more than 14 years ago).

The Packers' defense was its usual self: they gave up a lot of yards and some big plays. But in spite of all the dropped passes, lost fumbles, and the Hail Mary touchdown, this was just a 7-point game going into the 4th quarter. By no means out of reach for one of the highest-scoring offenses this season.

But that offense was never able to break out of its doldrums. A failed 4th-down conversion, followed by a third lost fumble was the back-breaker.

To be fair to the Giants, they played well, overcome some adversity of their own (including getting denied on a challenge they really should've won), and took full advantage of the opportunities that came their way. In spite of their unimpressive regular season record, they certainly looked like a force to be reckoned with on Sunday.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	2-2	4-4	50.0%
SRS	2-2	4-4	50.0%
Line	2-2	5-3	75.0%

NFL Division Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Saints	1.0762 (LW × 1.0059)	14-4	Lost by 4 @ 49ers
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0675 (LW × 1.0125)	14-3	Won by 35 vs Broncos
3 (-)	49ers	1.0455 (LW × 1.0209)	14-3	Won by 4 vs Saints
4 (↑4)	Giants	0.9911 (LW × 1.0495)	11-7	Won by 17 @ Packers
5 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9794 (LW × 1.0113)	8-8	Bye
6 (↓1)	Ravens	0.9770 (LW × 1.0043)	13-4	Won by 7 vs Texans
7 (↓3)	Packers	0.9596 (LW × 0.9453)	15-2	Lost by 17 vs Giants
8 (↓1)	Steelers	0.9539 (LW × 0.9992)	12-5	Bye
9 (-)	Seahawks	0.9426 (LW × 1.0070)	7-9	Bye
10 (-)	Dolphins	0.9286 (LW × 1.0042)	6-10	Bye
11 (-)	Falcons	0.9034 (LW × 0.9984)	10-7	Bye
12 (↑1)	Cardinals	0.9033 (LW × 1.0087)	8-8	Bye
13 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.8934 (LW × 1.0146)	8-8	Bye
14 (↓2)	Lions	0.8860 (LW × 0.9819)	10-7	Bye
15 (↑2)	Jets	0.8750 (LW × 1.0049)	8-8	Bye
16 (↓2)	Texans	0.8721 (LW × 0.9794)	11-7	Lost by 7 @ Ravens
17 (↓1)	Chargers	0.8654 (LW × 0.9855)	8-8	Bye
18 (↑2)	Titans	0.8380 (LW × 0.9943)	9-7	Bye
19 (↑2)	Bengals	0.8373 (LW × 0.9976)	9-8	Bye
20 (↓2)	Broncos	0.8328 (LW × 0.9749)	9-9	Lost by 35 @ Patriots
21 (↑1)	Panthers	0.8311 (LW × 0.9928)	6-10	Bye
22 (↓3)	Bears	0.8297 (LW × 0.9832)	8-8	Bye
23 (-)	Chiefs	0.8214 (LW × 0.9855)	7-9	Bye
24 (↑3)	Redskins	0.7964 (LW × 1.0107)	5-11	Bye
25 (↑1)	Browns	0.7960 (LW × 1.0006)	4-12	Bye
26 (↓2)	Raiders	0.7921 (LW × 0.9822)	8-8	Bye
27 (↓2)	Vikings	0.7865 (LW × 0.9851)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7779 (LW × 0.9925)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Bills	0.7741 (LW × 1.0012)	6-10	Bye
30 (-)	Rams	0.7626 (LW × 1.0069)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Colts	0.7526 (LW × 0.9958)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Buccaneers	0.6822 (LW × 0.9913)	4-12	Bye

Comments:

• That was ugly. More later.

• Actually, I do have one observation. Teams on the losing end of the turnover battle rarely win in the playoffs.

NFL Division Round Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Broncos @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.2341	Patriots δ=13.9	Patriots -13½
Texans @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0925	Ravens δ=0.6	Ravens -7½
Giants @ Packers	Packers* ρ=1.0749	Packers δ=8.3	Packers -8
Saints @ 49ers	Saints* ρ=1.0447	Saints* δ=3.7	Saints -3½

Comments:

• Unanimous agreement of all four games. Note that Saints @ 49ers is the only game this week not a rematch of a regular season meeting. For the rematches, the team favored here also won in the regular season.

• The Texans are the only team of the 8 remaining that hasn't won at least one Super Bowl.

• The Broncos haven't won two playoff games in the same season since their 1998 Super Bowl run (in fact, last week was just the Broncos' second playoff win since Super Bowl XXXII).

• Monday, I heard an argument that since the Broncos have a better defense, running game, and special teams, they have a chance against the Patriots on Saturday. The problem with that logic is the Broncos presumably had the same advantages in week 15 when they played the Patriots in Denver. You may remember the Broncos made it a game for a quarter, but the Patriots pulled away in the second, ultimately winning by 18.

• I can't seem to get a solid read on any of these games. The Tebow-lead Broncos have made a living coming out of games with wins where it didn't seem like they had a chance. The Texans defense could easily shut down the Ravens—I suspect that game will be decided by scores on defense and special teams.

• On the NFC side, the Saints have looked much weaker on the road, and haven't faced many defenses as strong as the 49ers. And it's always an adventure every time the Packers defense takes the field—the Giants managed to score 35 points on them, and tie the game late in the 4th quarter.

• At any rate, it should be a good slate of games this weekend.

NFL Wildcard Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Steelers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Broncos

The Steelers offense had their troubles in this game (5 sacks, 4 punts and a bad interception), but with their defense, 23 points should've been enough to beat the Broncos. But the Steelers defense suffered some critical injuries, and the rest looked (in the words of Warren Sapp), old and slow. The result was Tim Tebow having a career day passing (316 yards and 2 touchdowns). And now, for the Steelers, it is over.

Lions @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)

The Lions made more of a game of this than I was expecting—leading at halftime, and only down 4 at the start of the 4th quarter. But their defense just couldn't stop the Saints. Other than two fumbles, every Saints drive (until the very end of the game) ended in a score, all touchdowns, except for one field goal.

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Last spring, the Falcons decided they needed a big upgrade in their offense, so they traded up to get wide receiver Julio Jones. The results of this game are a strong indication that 1) the Falcons were right in concluding they needed to improve their offense, and 2) one wide recever was not enough. The Falcons only had 4 drives longer than 25 yards, and they all ended with a failed 4th-down conversion attempt.

Bengals @ Texans (APR, SRS, Line)

The Texans played perfectly to their strengths—ran a lot (35 carries for 188 yard), played outstanding defense (Dalton was sacked 4 times, intercepted 3 times, and the Bengals were held to just 10 points), and kept as much pressure off of T.J. Yates as possible. Yates only completed 11 passes for 159 yards, but that was more than enough.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	2-2	2-2	50.0%
SRS	2-2	2-2	50.0%
Line	3-1	3-1	75.0%

NFL Wildcard Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Saints	1.0699 (LW × 1.0204)	14-3	Won by 17 vs Lions
2 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0543 (LW × 1.0026)	13-3	Bye
3 (-)	49ers	1.0241 (LW × 0.9841)	13-3	Bye
4 (-)	Packers	1.0151 (LW × 0.9984)	15-1	Bye
5 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9728 (LW × 0.9731)	12-4	Bye
6 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9685 (LW × 1.0036)	8-8	Bye
7 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9547 (LW × 0.9516)	12-5	Lost by 6 @ Broncos
8 (↑3)	Giants	0.9444 (LW × 1.0324)	10-7	Won by 22 vs Falcons
9 (↓1)	Seahawks	0.9361 (LW × 0.9878)	7-9	Bye
10 (-)	Dolphins	0.9247 (LW × 1.0049)	6-10	Bye
11 (↓2)	Falcons	0.9049 (LW × 0.9610)	10-7	Lost by 22 @ Giants
12 (↑1)	Lions	0.9024 (LW × 0.9891)	10-7	Lost by 17 @ Saints
13 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.8955 (LW × 0.9814)	8-8	Bye
14 (-)	Texans	0.8905 (LW × 0.9928)	11-6	Won by 21 vs Bengals
15 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.8805 (LW × 1.0052)	8-8	Bye
16 (-)	Chargers	0.8782 (LW × 0.9959)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑1)	Jets	0.8707 (LW × 1.0068)	8-8	Bye
18 (↑3)	Broncos	0.8543 (LW × 1.0120)	9-8	Won by 6 vs Steelers
19 (↑1)	Bears	0.8439 (LW × 0.9979)	8-8	Bye
20 (↓1)	Titans	0.8428 (LW × 0.9882)	9-7	Bye
21 (↓6)	Bengals	0.8393 (LW × 0.9397)	9-8	Lost by 21 @ Texans
22 (-)	Panthers	0.8372 (LW × 0.9919)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	Chiefs	0.8334 (LW × 0.9979)	7-9	Bye
24 (↑1)	Raiders	0.8065 (LW × 0.9979)	8-8	Bye
25 (↑1)	Vikings	0.7984 (LW × 0.9975)	3-13	Bye
26 (↓2)	Browns	0.7955 (LW × 0.9713)	4-12	Bye
27 (↑1)	Redskins	0.7879 (LW × 1.0037)	5-11	Bye
28 (↓1)	Jaguars	0.7838 (LW × 0.9840)	5-11	Bye
29 (↑1)	Bills	0.7732 (LW × 1.0036)	6-10	Bye
30 (↓1)	Rams	0.7574 (LW × 0.9786)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Colts	0.7557 (LW × 0.9867)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Buccaneers	0.6882 (LW × 0.9926)	4-12	Bye

Comments:

• This is the first time all four home teams won in the wildcard round since 2006.

• The Falcons @ Giants game is the first time since 1993 a team has scored exactly 2 points in a game, and the first time ever in the playoffs.

• The Broncos winning continues the streak of APR's lowest-ranked playoff team winning at least once in the playoffs (although this is the first time that it hasn't been the NFC West division winner).

• We also had the first playoff overtime game under the new rules designed to allow both teams at least one possession. Somewhat ironically featuring a game-winning touchdown on the first OT play from scrimmage, one of the few exceptions to the "at least one possession" rule.

• The Steelers loss also means the Super Bowl "losers curse" continues—going back to 1997, the Cardinals and Seahawks remain the only Super Bowl losers to win a playoff game the following season.

NFL Wrapup: APR's Biggest Upsets of 2011

How Upsets Were Determined

Using all game scores through week 16, the power index values for all teams were computed, using a non-weighted version of the APR ranking algorithm. (The final week of games is left out to avoid skewing the rankings with the results of games where teams are resting their starters, or otherwise not trying).

For the weekly power rankings, APR uses method that gives less weight to older games, emphasising each teams more recent perormances. This means that the matchup ratios (ρ) listed below will not correspond to the matchup ratios listed in the weekly game pick posts.

Once the power indexes are computed for each team, every game of the season (including week 17) is picked using the unweighted rankings. The wrong picks are sorted by matchup ratio, with the games having the largest ratios featured below.

Any game that I regard as not a "real" upset (because a team is resting its starters, or is indirectly affected by such) is not included in this list.

Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10

• Week 15: The Ravens have one of the top-ranked defenses this season, but when they traveled to San Diego, the Chargers moved the ball up and down the field all game long and made the Ravens look like they were a long ways from deserving the AFC's #2 seed.

• Week 7: The Seahawks traveled to Cleveland, but couldn't leave with a win because they couldn't score 7 points on the Browns.

• Week 2: The Cowboys come back from a 10-point 4th-quarter deficit and steal an overtime win from the 49ers.

• Week 15: The Texans defense didn't show up, T.J. Yates looked like an inexperienced rookie, and the Panthers left Houston with a convincing win over the AFC South division champions.

• Week 2: Early signs of the Ravens road troubles when they travel to Nashville and give up two touchdowns and 4 field goals to the Titans (who only scored 26+ points four times all season).

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2011 Season

10. Week 9: Giants 24, Patriots 20 (ρ=1.1663)
    Two sacks and 21 incompletions (including a couple interceptions) add up to probably Tom Brady's worst game of the season. Factor in 2 lost fumbles, and the Patriots just gave the Giants too many chances to win this game.

9. Week 15: Titans 13, Colts 27 (ρ=1.1742)
   An injured Matt Hasselbeck, an ineffective Jake Locker, and a Colts defense that finally put a whole game together finally got the Colts a win, and cost the Titans a playoff spot.

8. Week 14: 49ers 19, Cardinals 21 (ρ=1.1930)
   The 49ers have had trouble scoring points, especially on the road. Which means that (as with this game) it may only take a handful of big plays to beat them. Losing this game meant the 49ers had to win out to clinch the #2 seed over the Saints.

7. Week 3: Falcons 13, Buccaneers 16 (ρ=1.2068)
   The Buccaneers were actually a unanimous pick to win this game, but in hindsight, it has to be counted as a pretty embarrassing loss for the Falcons. This is the only game of the season the Buccaneers' opponent didn't score at least 17 points.

6. Week 7: Ravens 7, Jaguars 12 (ρ=1.2167)
   Unlike the Ravens' other road losses this season, their defense did a fine job in this game. But their offense didn't even generate 150 yards and couldn't put up enough points to out-score the Jaguars four field goals.

5. Week 2: Patriots 31, Bills 34 (ρ=1.2179)
   The Patriots established an early 21-0 lead in this game, but Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions, and that let the Bills back in the game, and gave them a chance to win on a last-second field goal.

4. Week 16: Texans 16, Colts 19 (ρ=1.2831)
   The Texans had too many sacks, too many penalties, and not enough touchdowns in this game. That left the door open for the Colts to take the lead on a late touchdown, and clinch their second win of the season.

3. Week 6: Saints 20, Buccaneers 26 (ρ=1.3163)
   Sean Payton got his knee busted up, Drew Brees threw 3 interceptions, and the Saints gave the Buccaneers their last win of the season.

2. Week 15: Packers 14, Chiefs 19 (ρ=1.3215)
   It's tempting to blame the Packers' defense for this loss, but their play here is comparable to the way they've played all season—they gave up a lot of yards, but not many points. The real problem was on the other side of the ball. The Packers' patchwork offensive line gave up 4 sacks, and their receivers dropped too many passes. The result was Aaron Rodgers posting a comletion ratio under 50% for just the 3rd start of his career, and the only game this season the Packers didn't score at least 24 points.

1. Week 8: Saints 21, Rams 31 (ρ=1.3721)
   Drew Brees got sacked a season-record 6 times in this game, threw 2 interceptions, and generally made the Rams' defense look like world-beaters. This makes 3 seasons in a row (2010, 2009) that the Saints are on the losing end of the season's biggest upset.

Eliminated Games

Most teams had something to play for right down to the end of the season, so no games were eliminated from the rankings this year.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Winning teams in bold. Teams favored by 10 or more points were 34-3-0 this year.

Week	Game	Line
8	Saints 21, Rams 31	Saints -15½
10	Cardinals 21, Eagles 17	Eagles -14
15	Packers 14, Chiefs 19	Packers -14
5	Seahawks 36, Giants 25	Giants -9½
3	Patriots 31, Bills 34	Patriots -9
9	Giants 24, Patriots 20	Patriots -8½
13	Chiefs 10, Bears 3	Bears -8
7	Ravens 7, Jaguars 12	Ravens -8
9	Bears 30, Eagles 24	Eagles -8
4	49ers 24, Eagles 23	Eagles -7½
9	Broncos 38, Raiders 24	Raiders -7½

NFL Wildcard Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Steelers @ Broncos	Steelers ρ=1.1885	Steelers* δ=10.6	Steelers -8
Lions @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.1492	Saints δ=5.3	Saints -10½
Falcons @ Giants	Falcons ρ=1.0293	Falcons* δ=1.9	Giants -3
Bengals @ Texans	Texans* ρ=1.0041	Texans δ=4.1	Texans -3

Comments:

• The Steelers and Broncos have (by a pretty good margin) the two lowest-scoring offenses of any of the playoff teams. This could easily be another 7-3 or 13-9 game. That also means, unless the Steelers get a shut-out, 8 points seems like a lot to give.

• The Lions playoff game will be 20 years, almost to the day, since their last playoff win. The Bengals are the only team with a longer time since their last playoff win, 21 years ago

• That means the result of the Bengals @ Texans game will be notable no matter what—either the Bengals will end the NFL's longest active streak without a playoff win, or the Texans will get their first playoff win in franchise history.

• In the regular season meeting between the Lions and Saints, Matt Stafford was able to pass for more than 400 yards against the Saints defense, so the Lions aren't completely doomed. This time, though, they have to get touchdowns. Given the way the Saints score points, especially in the Super Dome, the Lions will get in trouble very quickly settling for field goals.

• The Giants are just 3-5 in their last 8 games, with two of those wins coming in games against the Cowboys. The Falcons haven't been much of a juggernaut either, but at least they've beaten more than two teams since the first week of November.

• I've made this point before, but it bears repeating: the Texans are 10-1 when they hold their opponent under 20 points. The performance of the Texans' defense is made even more critical by the fact that the Texans haven't scored more than 22 points since Matt Schaub got hurt.

NFL Week 17 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the Bubble:

ESPN drops the Raiders (+8) 3 spots now that they are no longer playoff contenders.

ESPN gives the Titans (+7) a 3-spot bump for a 1-point victory over the nothing-to-play-for, Jake Delhomme-lead Titans.

However you feel about Tim Tebow, it's not a good sign that the Broncos (+7) have backed into the playoffs on a 3-game losing streak. They've only beaten one team (the Bengals in week 2) with a winning record.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-14)

No question that APR has the Fins ranked too high at #10. But (as noted by ESPN), they finished the season 6-3. They don't belong in the bottom 10, either.

Seahawks (-13)

Another over-rank by APR (#8). But they finished 5-3, including close losses to the 49ers (13-3 and the NFC's #2 seed), and the Cardinals (8-8).

On the bubble

A tough season for the Eagles (-8). Their early 4-game losing streak included last-second losses to the Falcons and 49ers, and left them one win and the right tie-breakers away from winning the division. They're probably the most dangerous team out of the playoffs.