| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants @ Patriots | Patriots* ρ=1.0403 | Patriots δ=5.8 | Patriots -2½ |
Comments:
Everybody likes the Patriots. The Giants haven't been favored to win since the Wild Card round.
The Giants' season has been a tale of turnovers. They were 2-6 when they turned the ball over 2 or more times, and (including the playoffs) 10-1 when they had no more than 1 turnover.
Also of note: in the Divisional and Championship rounds, the Giants faced the two defenses that generated the most turnovers in the league, and had exactly one turnover on offense in those games.
The Patriots have turned the ball over 5 times in the playoffs (twice to the Broncos, three times to the Ravens).
This doesn't necessarily mean the Patriots are doomed. The Giants have not played well from behind, going 3-7 when they've fallen behind by more than 7 points.
But I think to win, the Patriots are going to have to do two things they didn't in playing the Ravens: 1) avoid turnovers, and 2) establish a two-score lead.
