Wednesday, February 1, 2012

NFL Super Bowl Pick

Giants @


  • Everybody likes the Patriots. The Giants haven't been favored to win since the Wild Card round.

  • The Giants' season has been a tale of turnovers. They were 2-6 when they turned the ball over 2 or more times, and (including the playoffs) 10-1 when they had no more than 1 turnover.

  • Also of note: in the Divisional and Championship rounds, the Giants faced the two defenses that generated the most turnovers in the league, and had exactly one turnover on offense in those games.

  • The Patriots have turned the ball over 5 times in the playoffs (twice to the Broncos, three times to the Ravens).

  • This doesn't necessarily mean the Patriots are doomed. The Giants have not played well from behind, going 3-7 when they've fallen behind by more than 7 points.

  • But I think to win, the Patriots are going to have to do two things they didn't in playing the Ravens: 1) avoid turnovers, and 2) establish a two-score lead.