Wednesday, December 28, 2011

NFL Week 17 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Bills @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.3488
Patriots
δ=10.7
Patriots
-11½
Buccaneers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.3432
Falcons
δ=13.1
Falcons
-12
49ers @
Rams
49ers
ρ=1.3351
49ers*
δ=20.3
49ers
-10½
Steelers @
Browns
Steelers
ρ=1.2433
Steelers*
δ=11.4
Steelers
-7
Panthers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.2057
Saints
δ=10.6
Saints
-9½
Redskins @
Eagles
Eagles*
ρ=1.2015
Eagles
δ=6.9
Eagles
-10
Lions @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.1315
Packers
δ=5.2
Lions
-3½
Titans @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1120
Texans
δ=6.3
Titans
-2½
Ravens @
Bengals
Ravens
ρ=1.0686
Ravens*
δ=5.2
Ravens
-1½
Colts @
Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.0620
Jaguars
δ=5.7
Jaguars
-3½
Jets @
Dolphins
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0577
Jets*
δ=0.2
Dolphins
-1
Seahawks @
Cardinals
Seahawks
ρ=1.0525
Seahawks*
δ=3.7
Cardinals
-2½
Chiefs @
Broncos
Broncos*
ρ=1.0496
Broncos
δ=3.6
Broncos
-3
Chargers @
Raiders
Chargers
ρ=1.0440
Chargers*
δ=5.0
Raiders
-3
Bears @
Vikings
Bears
ρ=1.0386
Bears*
δ=7.7
Vikings
-1
Cowboys @
Giants
Cowboys
ρ=1.0093
Cowboys*
δ=2.3
Giants
-2½

Comments:

  • At the moment, I can't find a line for Bears @ Vikings except "pick 'em". Perhaps they are waiting to see if Ponder will be able to play. Update: looks like I was right. Word has come out that Ponder will play, and suddenly there's a line.

  • On the NFC side, the playoff teams are set, except for the NFC East winner. But there's still some jockeying for position to be done. The 49ers still need a win to clinch the #2 seed, and the Saints will want to win in case they don't. The Lions will need a win to clinch the #5 seed, and a trip to the NFC East champion. The #6 seed will have to go to the Saints (or possibly the 49ers) on wildcard weekend.

  • The AFC has four teams vying for the final wildcard spot, which makes the Ravens @ Bengals game one of the most interesting matchups of the weekend. If the Bengals win, they're in (and also open up the door for the Steelers to win the AFC North and clinch the #2 seed). If the Bengals lose, it's a free-for-all for that last wildcard spot.

  • The Packers and Texans are the only two playoff teams that have their seeds clinched, which means Lions @ Packers and Titans @ Texans are the games most likely to be affected by teams resting their starters.

  • The 49ers get their widest spread of the season. They haven't won on the road by more than 8 points. Of course, they haven't played anyone near as bad as the Rams on the road, either.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

NFL Week 16 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Raiders (+9)
ESPN likes to rank playoff-contenders (too) high, even if their last 4 games feature a 3-game losing streak, and an overtime win over the struggling Chiefs.
On the Bubble:
Speaking of overrated playoff contenders, the Titans (+7), are still alive for one of the AFC's wildcard spots.
APR gives the Lions (+6) a 5-spot bump for demolishing the Chargers, but ESPN's 2-spot bump is enough to keep them on the bubble.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-12)
As noted in this week's power rankings, the Dolphins have five losses by 3 points or less, including this week at the Patriots. I'll stipulate that APR has them ranked too high at #12, but they don't belong in the bottom 12, where ESPN has them, either.
Seahawks (-9)
As noted earlier, the Seahawks have been playing tough this year, and took the NFC's (presumed) #2 seed to the wire on Sunday. Again, APR has them too high at #9, but the Seahawks have played as good as or better than some of the teams ESPN has above them (Eagles, Jets, Titans, Raiders).
Eagles (-9)
Good news for the Eagles: Michael Vick is healthy, the defense is finally coming together, they've put together a 3-game winning streak, and they're only one win behind the division-leading Giants. The bad news, of course, is this is all too little, too late.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than Vikings and Cardinals (-5)

Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

Right:
49ers @ Seahawks
Rams @ Steelers
Browns @ Ravens
Dolphins @ Patriots
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Cardinals @ Bengals
Jaguars @ Titans
Bears @ Packers
Falcons @ Saints

Wrong:

Broncos @ Bills
One of the overlooked aspects of the Broncos winning streak has been the emergence of Von Miller as a major force for their defense. But in the last two games, Von Miller has been a non-factor, and (probably not coincidentally), they've allowed 40+ points in each game. It's also no surprise that the style of offense they play with Tim Tebow doesn't do well in high scoring games.
Texans @ Colts
The Texans' numbers for this game look pretty good: T.J. Yates was 13/16 for 132 yards and no picks. Arian Foster ran for 158 yards. But because of penalties, sacks, and a turnover, too many of their drives ended either with a field goal, or no score at all, and that left the door open for the Colts offense to win the game on a late touchdown.
Giants @ Jets
The Jets just couldn't move the ball on offense. They only had 4 drives longer than 22 yards, only one of those ended in a score. It wasn't a great game for the Giants, either (they were 4 of 15 converting 3rd downs, and Eli Manning only completed 9 passes). But it was enough to get by the Jets.
Vikings @ Redskins
The Redskins had more yards and more first downs than the Vikings in this game. But they also had more penalty yards, and more incompletions than the Vikings. The result was they mostly settled for field goals, while the Vikings were driving for touchdowns. As a result, the Redskins were playing catch-up most of the game, including when time finally expired.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-2, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Raiders (SRS) @ Chiefs (APR, Line)
Kyle Orton lead the Chiefs offense to another 400+ yard game (for just the 3rd time this season). But two interceptions and 88 penalty yards meant that (like last week) those yards didn't translate into a lot of points. The Chiefs only tied the game on a late touchdown, and in overtime, the Raiders won the toss, and one long completion got them well within Janikowski's field goal range.
Chargers (APR) @ Lions (SRS, Line)
I think APR has the Chargers overrated—they only broke their 6-game losing streak when they reached perhaps the softest part of their schedule, culminating with a win over the can't-win-on-the-road Ravens. This held the Chargers up in APR's rankings long enough to give them a slight edge over the Lions, who slumped in the rankings due to a 4-5 streak.
Eagles (APR) @ Cowboys (SRS, Line)
When the Giants' victory over the Jets went final late in the first quarter of this game, it eliminated the Eagles from the playoffs, and meant that the NFC East would come down to Sunday's Cowboys @ Giants game.

Totals

SRS again closes to ½ a game of the Line.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 10-6141-82-163.2%
SRS 11-5146-77-165.4%
Line10-6147-77-065.6%

Monday, December 26, 2011

Week 16 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Patriots1.0428
(LW × 0.9898)
12-3Won by 3
vs Dolphins
2 (↑1)49ers1.0343
(LW × 1.0130)
12-3Won by 2
@ Seahawks
3 (↓1)Packers1.0253
(LW × 1.0003)
14-1Won by 14
vs Bears
4 (↑2)Saints1.0231
(LW × 1.0442)
12-3Won by 29
vs Falcons
5 (↓1)Steelers1.0091
(LW × 1.0000)
11-4Won by 27
vs Rams
6 (↓1)Ravens0.9798
(LW × 0.9832)
11-4Won by 6
vs Browns
7 (-)Falcons0.9499
(LW × 0.9841)
9-6Lost by 29
@ Saints
8 (↑2)Eagles0.9474
(LW × 1.0288)
7-8Won by 13
@ Cowboys
9 (-)Seahawks0.9424
(LW × 1.0026)
7-8Lost by 2
vs 49ers
10 (↓2)Texans0.9280
(LW × 0.9697)
10-5Lost by 3
@ Colts
11 (↑3)Bengals0.9169
(LW × 1.0092)
9-6Won by 7
vs Cardinals
12 (↑4)Dolphins0.9137
(LW × 1.0186)
5-10Lost by 3
@ Patriots
13 (↑5)Lions0.9061
(LW × 1.0219)
10-5Won by 28
vs Chargers
14 (↓3)Cowboys0.9002
(LW × 0.9781)
8-7Lost by 13
vs Eagles
15 (↑2)Cardinals0.8954
(LW × 1.0030)
7-8Lost by 7
@ Bengals
16 (↑4)Giants0.8919
(LW × 1.0410)
8-7Won by 15
@ Jets
17 (↓5)Jets0.8639
(LW × 0.9431)
8-7Lost by 15
vs Giants
18 (↓5)Broncos0.8621
(LW × 0.9428)
8-7Lost by 26
@ Bills
19 (↓4)Chargers0.8592
(LW × 0.9543)
7-8Lost by 28
@ Lions
20 (↑2)Panthers0.8485
(LW × 1.0185)
6-9Won by 32
vs Buccaneers
21 (↓2)Bears0.8459
(LW × 0.9724)
7-8Lost by 14
@ Packers
22 (↑1)Titans0.8345
(LW × 1.0108)
8-7Won by 6
vs Jaguars
23 (↑1)Raiders0.8230
(LW × 1.0065)
8-7Won by 3
@ Chiefs
24 (↓3)Chiefs0.8213
(LW × 0.9634)
6-9Lost by 3
vs Raiders
25 (↑3)Vikings0.8145
(LW × 1.0236)
3-12Won by 7
@ Redskins
26 (↑1)Browns0.8117
(LW × 1.0169)
4-11Lost by 6
@ Ravens
27 (↓2)Jaguars0.8023
(LW × 0.9834)
4-11Lost by 6
@ Titans
28 (↓2)Redskins0.7885
(LW × 0.9787)
5-10Lost by 7
vs Vikings
29 (-)Rams0.7747
(LW × 1.0019)
2-13Lost by 27
@ Steelers
30 (-)Bills0.7731
(LW × 1.0165)
6-9Won by 26
vs Broncos
31 (↑1)Colts0.7554
(LW × 1.0397)
2-13Won by 3
vs Texans
32 (↓1)Buccaneers0.7072
(LW × 0.9703)
4-11Lost by 32
@ Panthers

Comments:

  • It seems like this was more of a "lose and you're out" weekend, rather than a "win and you're in". The Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, and Chargers were all eliminated by losing, and the Jets' loss puts them very much on the outside looking in.

  • The Falcons have the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Lions. They also have a home game against the lost-9-in-a-row Buccaneers, but at one game back of the Lions, they will also need the Lions to lose to the nothing-much-to-play-for Packers next week, or they will be on the road in the Super Dome for a rematch with the Saints on Wild Card Weekend.

  • Which means the Lions are a win away from clinching a trip to the (presumably) much weaker NFC East winner. The Lions beat the Cowboys week 4 in one of the Cowboys biggest melt-downs of the season.

  • After hitting an arrowhead-shaped speed bump last week, the Packers clinched the NFC's #1 seed, and (for the first time in franchise history) a 14-win season.

  • The Packers' defense has held their opponent under 400 yards just 5 times this season, and only twice since mid-October. Their high-powered offense is going to have to carry the load in the playoffs this time around.

  • APR has the Dolphins ranked at #12. They have five losses by 3 points or less. Of course, their other five losses are by 10 points or more. If they can get a decent quarterback, and keep him healty all season long, they could have a good chance to make a playoff run next year.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

NFL Week 16 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Texans @
Colts
Texans
ρ=1.3171
Texans*
δ=18.9
Texans
-5½
Rams @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.3052
Steelers
δ=15.7
Steelers
-17
Browns @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.2485
Ravens
δ=12.7
Ravens
-13½
Broncos @
Bills
Broncos
ρ=1.2023
Broncos*
δ=0.9
Broncos
-2½
Bears @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.1782
Packers
δ=9.0
Packers
-13
Dolphins @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1744
Patriots
δ=8.1
Patriots
-10
Buccaneers @
Panthers
Panthers*
ρ=1.1431
Panthers
δ=7.0
Panthers
-7½
49ers @
Seahawks
49ers
ρ=1.0863
49ers*
δ=8.6
49ers
-1½
Giants @
Jets
Jets*
ρ=1.0692
Jets
δ=3.2
Jets
-2½
Raiders @
Chiefs
Chiefs*
ρ=1.0428
Raiders*
δ=4.3
Chiefs
-1
Cardinals @
Bengals
Bengals*
ρ=1.0178
Bengals
δ=2.8
Bengals
-4
Chargers @
Lions
Chargers
ρ=1.0155
Lions
δ=2.2
Lions
-1½
Falcons @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0151
Saints
δ=4.6
Saints
-7
Vikings @
Redskins
Redskins*
ρ=1.0125
Redskins
δ=4.0
Redskins
-6½
Jaguars @
Titans
Titans*
ρ=1.0120
Titans
δ=3.8
Titans
-8
Eagles @
Cowboys
Eagles
ρ=1.0006
Cowboys
δ=0.6
Cowboys
-1

Comments:

  • Lots of complicated playoff scenarios this week. The Falcons and Lions are the only teams with "win and in" scenarios.

  • The Packers will clinch the top NFC seed with a win this week. And if they can't beat the Bears without Cutler, Forte, and Knox, the Packers could be in for a very short, very ugly playoff run.

  • If the Colts defense shows up again this week, and they get some production out of their running game—could they really play spoiler to the Texans bye-week hopes? Given how awful the Colts have played (other than last Sunday), I'll have to file that under "I'll believe it when I see it".

  • Not so long ago, it looked like the 49ers would have an easy sweep of their division. Now they need to win out to stay ahead of the Saints for the remaining unclinched bye-week, which includes a trip to play the recently resurgent Seahawks in their home stadium. If you're looking for an upset pick this week, this game could be a good choice.

  • Thanks to virtually every other AFC power losing last week, the Patriots now have the inside track to that conference's #1 seed. But first they have to get by the resurgent power in their own division: the recently 5-2 Dolphins. The Patriots are tough at home, but 10 points seems like a lot to give for a team that couldn't hold the hapless Colts to more than 7...

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

NFL Week 15 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 15 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Ah, at last a little controversy!

Lions (+9)
In spite of their winning record, the Lions are just 4-5 in their last 9, and a narrow 1-point win (preserved by a last-second blocked field goal) against a struggling Raiders team doesn't suggest to me they've really turned the corner.
On the Bubble:
Nobody closer than the Raiders (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
The Eagles (-8) are another team that has lived and died by their defense. They are 6-0 when they hold their opponent to 19 points or fewer, and 0-8 when they don't.
The Dolphins (-7) are 5-2 since the start of November, including that 1-point loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
The Seahawks (-6) are also 5-2 since the start of November. They have wins over the Giants, Ravens, Eagles, and Bears.

2011 Week 15 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-6)

Right:
Jaguars @ Falcons
Browns @ Cardinals
Bengals @ Rams
Saints @ Vikings
Cowboys @ Buccaneers
Dolphins @ Bills
Patriots @ Broncos
Lions @ Raiders

Wrong:

Packers @ Chiefs
It turns out the formula to beat the Packers is pretty much the same as it was last year: play good pass defense, ball control on offense, and hope that Rodgers has an off game passing. The fact that Rodgers was missing his #1 receiver Greg Jennings made the "bad game passing" part a lot easier.

Titans @ Colts
This was really the Colts defense finally showing up for a game. They forced 3 turnovers, including a pick-6, and generally kept the injured (Matt Hasselbeck), ineffective (Chris Johnson), and inexperienced (Jake Locker) Titans well in check. The Colts running game put up more than 200 yards, which meant that Dan Orlovsky only had to throw 17 times. The result was the most points scored in the season (and only the third time over 20 points), along with the fewest points allowed (and only the second time less than 24).
Ravens @ Chargers
The Ravens' defense has just not played well on the road this season. 4 of their 5 worst games in terms of yards allowed were @ Tennesse, @ San Diego, @ Pittsburgh, and @ Seattle. The Ravens went 1-3 in those games, and it doesn't bode well for them when they have to play away from Baltimore in the playoffs (even if that turns out to be Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis).
Panthers @ Texans
It's been a pretty easy formula for the Texans this year: they're 10-0 when they hold their opponents under 20 points, and 0-4 when they don't. Maybe that didn't matter that much this week, as T.J. Yates looked a lot more like an inexperienced rookie in this game. One thing is for sure—the Texans can't rely on Yates to carry them to any wins, especially once the playoffs start.
Redskins @ Giants
The Redskins defense just shut down the Giants. The Giants had six drives 21 yards or shorter. Of the five sustained drives they had, three ended (respectively) with a missed field goal, an interception, and a failed 4th down try. The other two resulted in 10 points, which wasn't nearly enough to win the game.
Seahawks @ Bears
As I noted last week, the Seahawks have been quietly looking pretty solid this year. And the Bears, without Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and now Johnny Knox, were simply no match for them.

Split Picks: (APR: 0-2, SRS 1-1, Line 2-0)

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
Well, I was wrong: the Eagles' defense had two good games in a row. The Jets only had one more yard rushing (94) than penalty yards (93), and Sanchez' passing (150 yards, 2 interceptions) was not able to make up the difference. And while the Eagles offense had a sloppy game (1 interception and 5 fumbles, 3 lost), they were able to move the ball efficiently enough when they did have it that the turnovers didn't much matter.
Steelers (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, Line)
Ben Roethlisberger's injured ankle was clearly a major issue, with 3 interceptions and 3 sacks at least partially attributable to his lack of mobility. Also, I suppose, the Steelers apparent complete lack of confidence in backup quarterbacks Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon.

Totals

Not the greatest week for anyone, although the Line doesn't fall back as far as APR or SRS.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 8-8131-76-163.2%
SRS 9-7135-72-165.1%
Line10-6137-71-065.8%

Monday, December 19, 2011

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑4)Patriots1.0535
(LW × 1.0430)
11-3Won by 18
@ Broncos
2 (↓1)Packers1.0249
(LW × 0.9457)
13-1Lost by 5
@ Chiefs
3 (↑3)49ers1.0210
(LW × 1.0310)
11-3Won by 17
vs Steelers
4 (↓2)Steelers1.0092
(LW × 0.9608)
10-4Lost by 17
@ 49ers
5 (↓2)Ravens0.9965
(LW × 0.9500)
10-4Lost by 20
@ Chargers
6 (↑1)Saints0.9798
(LW × 1.0027)
11-3Won by 22
@ Vikings
7 (↑1)Falcons0.9652
(LW × 1.0034)
9-5Won by 27
vs Jaguars
8 (↓4)Texans0.9570
(LW × 0.9146)
10-4Lost by 15
vs Panthers
9 (↑5)Seahawks0.9399
(LW × 1.0547)
7-7Won by 24
@ Bears
10 (↑10)Eagles0.9209
(LW × 1.0558)
6-8Won by 26
vs Jets
11 (↑5)Cowboys0.9203
(LW × 1.0385)
8-6Won by 16
@ Buccaneers
12 (↓2)Jets0.9161
(LW × 0.9758)
8-6Lost by 26
@ Eagles
13 (↓4)Broncos0.9144
(LW × 0.9652)
8-6Lost by 18
vs Patriots
14 (↓3)Bengals0.9086
(LW × 0.9789)
8-6Won by 7
@ Rams
15 (-)Chargers0.9003
(LW × 1.0132)
7-7Won by 20
vs Ravens
16 (↑5)Dolphins0.8971
(LW × 1.0294)
5-9Won by 7
@ Bills
17 (↑2)Cardinals0.8927
(LW × 1.0195)
7-7Won by 3
vs Browns
18 (↓5)Lions0.8866
(LW × 0.9868)
9-5Won by 1
@ Raiders
19 (↓7)Bears0.8699
(LW × 0.9525)
7-7Lost by 24
vs Seahawks
20 (↓2)Giants0.8567
(LW × 0.9760)
7-7Lost by 13
vs Redskins
21 (↑3)Chiefs0.8526
(LW × 1.0193)
6-8Won by 5
vs Packers
22 (↑5)Panthers0.8331
(LW × 1.0488)
5-9Won by 15
@ Texans
23 (↓6)Titans0.8256
(LW × 0.9363)
7-7Lost by 14
@ Colts
24 (↓1)Raiders0.8176
(LW × 0.9657)
7-7Lost by 1
vs Lions
25 (↓3)Jaguars0.8158
(LW × 0.9562)
4-10Lost by 27
@ Falcons
26 (↑5)Redskins0.8057
(LW × 1.0664)
5-9Won by 13
@ Giants
27 (↓1)Browns0.7982
(LW × 0.9890)
4-10Lost by 3
@ Cardinals
28 (↓3)Vikings0.7957
(LW × 0.9569)
2-12Lost by 22
vs Saints
29 (↑1)Rams0.7732
(LW × 1.0116)
2-12Lost by 7
vs Bengals
30 (↓2)Bills0.7606
(LW × 0.9721)
5-9Lost by 7
vs Dolphins
31 (↓2)Buccaneers0.7288
(LW × 0.9435)
4-10Lost by 16
vs Cowboys
32 (-)Colts0.7266
(LW × 1.0362)
1-13Won by 14
vs Titans

Comments:

  • Congratulations to the Lions, who have clinched a winning season for the first time since 2000, and are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 1999.

  • Has there ever been a case of the wheels coming off a bandwagon faster than what's happened with the Packers in the last day and a half? The reality is, they played without their #1 receiver, without their most productive running back, and with a banged-up O-line, on the road against a team with a good defense (especially at home). It's not a surprise they struggled, and it should be to the defense's credit that 14 points was nearly enough to pull out a win.

  • The reality is, the talk of the 2011 Packers as "the best team ever" has been ridiculous, even before Sunday's loss. I wouldn't even put them as the best Packers team ever (just from my own experience, the 1996 Packers, with the #1 offense, #1 defense, and an MVP-caliber special teams unit, is a really high standard to surpass).

  • The Broncos and Cardinals now have 3 regular season overtime wins (each) in 2011, tying the record held by a number of other teams (most recently the 2010 Redskins). If you include the playoffs, the 2003 Panthers hold the record at 4 overtime wins. The 1983 Packers hold the record for most overall overtime games played in one (regular) season at 5, but with a record of 2-3-0.

  • I should note for any Bills or Buccaneers fans looking at these rankings, APR is a weighted algorithm, with less weight given to older games, and since both those teams are on long losing streaks, APR is giving their (very old) wins less and less weight each week.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

NFL Week 15 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Panthers @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.3172
Texans
δ=12.0
Texans
-6½
Packers @
Chiefs
Packers
ρ=1.2957
Packers*
δ=23.1
Packers
-14
Titans @
Colts
Titans
ρ=1.2576
Titans*
δ=15.0
Titans
-7
Bengals @
Rams
Bengals
ρ=1.2143
Bengals*
δ=13.1
Bengals
-6½
Ravens @
Chargers
Ravens
ρ=1.1805
Ravens*
δ=7.9
Ravens
-1½
Saints @
Vikings
Saints
ρ=1.1751
Saints*
δ=14.7
Saints
-7
Redskins @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.1619
Giants
δ=3.9
Giants
-7
Cowboys @
Buccaneers
Cowboys
ρ=1.1473
Cowboys*
δ=10.5
Cowboys
-7
Jaguars @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1274
Falcons
δ=6.1
Falcons
-11½
Dolphins @
Bills
Dolphins
ρ=1.1138
Dolphins*
δ=4.1
Dolphins
-1½
Browns @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.0850
Cardinals
δ=2.7
Cardinals
-6½
Jets @
Eagles
Jets
ρ=1.0764
Jets*
δ=3.8
Eagles
-1
Patriots @
Broncos
Patriots
ρ=1.0662
Patriots*
δ=10.0
Patriots
-6
Lions @
Raiders
Lions
ρ=1.0613
Lions*
δ=9.6
Lions
-1
Steelers @
49ers
Steelers
ρ=1.0606
49ers
δ=1.6
49ers
-2½
Seahawks @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0248
Bears
δ=5.3
Bears
-3½

Comments:

  • The Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers have all reached the "win and in" point. They all have to travel to play AFC/NFC West teams.

  • Why does the Line like the Eagles? Maybe they have a chance if they have another good showing by their defense. But the Eagles have won back-to-back games just once all season (and that with the benefit of the bye-week in between); I don't see any reason to think the Eagles will have their second back-to-back win this week.

  • Everybody likes the Bears this week. But they haven't scored more than 20 points since Jay Cutler went down, and they haven't scored more than 10 points since Matt Forte went down. Unless they can score on defense and/or special teams, it could be very ugly for the Bears this week.

  • This could be a really ugly game for the Steelers. Their offense has given up 22 turnovers (the Jets (24) are the only playoff contending team with more), and the 49ers defense has generated 31 turnovers, second only to the Packers (31).

  • The Colts might have one last flickering hope of a win this season if Jake Locker has to play on Sunday in replacement of the injured Matt Hasselbeck. They'll also have to hope that Chris Johnson has another bad week rushing.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

NFL Week 14 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 14 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the Bubble:
The Raiders (+7) don't have a win over a quality team since they beat the Texans October 9th. And now they've got a couple really bad losses that probably knocked them out of the playoff race.
The Giants (+6) have some exciting playmakers, and (at least for the moment) lead their division. But ESPN's rank of #12 seems kind of high for a team that just broke a 4-game losing streak, and is only one win over .500.
ESPN makes note of the Bills (+6) 6-game losing streak, but still has them ranked out of the bottom 10 (although to be sure, there's some pretty stiff competition for the 10 worst teams of the league this year).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
The Seahawks (-6) have racked up some pretty nice wins this season. If a couple games they really should have won (@ the Browns and vs. the Redskins) had gone their way, they'd be right in the middle of the playoff hunt. Even now, they're not totally out of it, although they would need a lot of help to have a chance.

NFL Week 14 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-3)

Right:
Patriots @ Redskins
Falcons @ Panthers
Saints @ Titans
Colts @ Ravens
Browns @ Steelers
Raiders @ Packers
Vikings @ Lions
Chiefs @ Jets
Bills @ Chargers
Rams @ Seahawks

Wrong:

49ers @ Cardinals
Last week, I wrote that the Cardinals are not a very good team. Now I'm thinking that's not entirely fair. Their defense has really been doing well lately—the Cardinals haven't allowed more than 23 points since late October. And while the Cardinals' offense is often pretty ugly, a solid defensive effort means that they can win with just a handful of big plays, which is what happened Sunday.
Eagles @ Dolphins
I'm not sure what there is to say about this game, except that 1) the Eagles do a lot better when Michael Vick can play, and 2) the Eagles' on-again, off-again defense was on again, at least for this game.
Giants @ Cowboys
Another late lead blown. the Cowboys are 0-4 this year when they give up 27+ points. They've clearly improved over last year, but I wonder if DC Rob Ryan will get fired soon.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-0, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Texans (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)
The Texans' defense continues to carry them forward; a remarkable turn-around for a team that just last year lost again and again because their defense couldn't stop anybody.
Buccaneers (Line) @ Jaguars (APR, SRS)
This was just an implosion by the Buccaneers. A muffed punt, one 62-yard pass completion, a recovered fumble, and a short field off an interception gave the Jaguars 28 points, all in the second quarter. The Jaguars defense was easily able to make that hold for a win.
Bears (SRS) @ Broncos (APR, Line)
For the third time this season, the Broncos faced a struggling team, found an opportunity to tie the game late, and win in overtime. And Tim Tebow continues to improve as a passer—he passed for 200+ yards for just the second time in his career, and completed 20+ passes for the first time. He was also intercepted for just the second time this season. That's easily the lowest interceptions-to-pass-attempts ratio this year of any player that's thrown more than 100 passes.

Totals

Another very nice week for APR. And thanks to another relatively weak showing for the line, SRS is now just a half-game behind.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 13-3123-68-164.3%
SRS 12-4126-65-165.9%
Line11-5127-65-066.1%

Monday, December 12, 2011

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.0837
(LW × 0.9960)
13-0Won by 30
vs Raiders
2 (↑1)Steelers1.0503
(LW × 0.9983)
10-3Won by 11
vs Browns
3 (↓1)Ravens1.0490
(LW × 0.9896)
10-3Won by 14
vs Colts
4 (-)Texans1.0463
(LW × 1.0129)
10-3Won by 1
@ Bengals
5 (-)Patriots1.0101
(LW × 0.9985)
10-3Won by 7
@ Redskins
6 (-)49ers0.9903
(LW × 0.9827)
10-3Lost by 2
@ Cardinals
7 (-)Saints0.9772
(LW × 0.9989)
10-3Won by 5
@ Titans
8 (-)Falcons0.9619
(LW × 1.0118)
8-5Won by 8
@ Panthers
9 (-)Broncos0.9474
(LW × 1.0061)
8-5Won by 3
vs Bears
10 (↑1)Jets0.9388
(LW × 1.0077)
8-5Won by 27
vs Chiefs
11 (↓1)Bengals0.9282
(LW × 0.9939)
7-6Lost by 1
vs Texans
12 (-)Bears0.9133
(LW × 0.9963)
7-6Lost by 3
@ Broncos
13 (-)Lions0.8985
(LW × 0.9831)
8-5Won by 6
vs Vikings
14 (↑4)Seahawks0.8911
(LW × 1.0210)
6-7Won by 17
vs Rams
15 (↑2)Chargers0.8886
(LW × 1.0081)
6-7Won by 27
vs Bills
16 (↓1)Cowboys0.8862
(LW × 0.9783)
7-6Lost by 3
vs Giants
17 (↓1)Titans0.8818
(LW × 0.9803)
7-6Lost by 5
vs Saints
18 (↑2)Giants0.8778
(LW × 1.0185)
7-6Won by 3
@ Cowboys
19 (↑3)Cardinals0.8756
(LW × 1.0346)
6-7Won by 2
vs 49ers
20 (↑3)Eagles0.8722
(LW × 1.0464)
5-8Won by 16
@ Dolphins
21 (↓7)Dolphins0.8714
(LW × 0.9586)
4-9Lost by 16
vs Eagles
22 (↑2)Jaguars0.8532
(LW × 1.0285)
4-9Won by 27
vs Buccaneers
23 (↓4)Raiders0.8466
(LW × 0.9821)
7-6Lost by 30
@ Packers
24 (↓3)Chiefs0.8364
(LW × 0.9762)
5-8Lost by 27
@ Jets
25 (-)Vikings0.8316
(LW × 1.0025)
2-11Lost by 6
@ Lions
26 (↑3)Browns0.8071
(LW × 1.0134)
4-9Lost by 11
@ Steelers
27 (-)Panthers0.7944
(LW × 0.9811)
4-9Lost by 8
vs Falcons
28 (↓2)Bills0.7824
(LW × 0.9577)
5-8Lost by 27
@ Chargers
29 (↓1)Buccaneers0.7725
(LW × 0.9626)
4-9Lost by 27
@ Jaguars
30 (↑1)Rams0.7643
(LW × 0.9990)
2-11Lost by 17
@ Seahawks
31 (↓1)Redskins0.7555
(LW × 0.9865)
4-9Lost by 7
vs Patriots
32 (-)Colts0.7012
(LW × 1.0058)
0-13Lost by 14
@ Ravens

Comments:

  • Not a lot of movement this week. The Packers are still way out in front, with the Steelers, Ravens, and Texans in a pretty close cluster, followed by another big gap down to the Patriots.

  • In week 8, the Broncos lost by 35 to the Lions, and APR dropped them to a #26 ranking. They've won every game since then, and this is the first week they haven't moved up in APR's ranking as a result.

  • Congradulations to the Texans, who have clinched the AFC South, and thus the first playoff berth in franchise history. They have also clinched their first-ever 10 win season.

  • The Packers have clinched a playoff spot higher than the Saints. Which seems like a pretty big deal, since a) the Saints seem like a team that has the best shot at beating them, but b) the Saints haven't been nearly as good when playing on the road.

  • The 49ers, who seemed like a lock for (at worst) the #2 seed, have taken a critical loss in their division, and are now in a no-margin-for-error race with the Saints for the remaining bye-week seed.

  • The Giants are the only division-leading team that hasn't made it to at least 8 wins yet.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

NFL Week 14 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Colts @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.5205
Ravens
δ=23.9
Ravens
-16½
Browns @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.3212
Steelers
δ=12.2
Steelers
-14
Patriots @
Redskins
Patriots
ρ=1.3209
Patriots*
δ=13.3
Patriots
-9
Raiders @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2622
Packers
δ=14.9
Packers
-11½
49ers @
Cardinals
49ers
ρ=1.1907
49ers*
δ=13.4
49ers
-3½
Falcons @
Panthers
Falcons
ρ=1.1742
Falcons*
δ=6.1
Falcons
-2½
Rams @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1409
Seahawks
δ=9.2
Seahawks
-10
Texans @
Bengals
Texans
ρ=1.1062
Texans*
δ=8.5
Bengals
-3
Vikings @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.1017
Lions
δ=12.5
Lions
-7
Eagles @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.0907
Dolphins
δ=2.5
Dolphins
-3
Saints @
Titans
Saints
ρ=1.0876
Saints*
δ=8.5
Saints
-3½
Chiefs @
Jets
Jets*
ρ=1.0874
Jets
δ=12.4
Jets
-9
Bills @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.0789
Chargers
δ=1.1
Chargers
-7
Giants @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.0510
Cowboys
δ=4.3
Cowboys
-3
Buccaneers @
Jaguars
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0338
Jaguars
δ=0.8
Buccaneers
-1
Bears @
Broncos
Broncos*
ρ=1.0272
Bears*
δ=7.5
Broncos
-3½

Comments:

  • The Patriots, Texans, Steelers, and Saints have all reached "with a win and help, they're in" playoff scenarios. The Saints' scenario seems pretty likely, as they need a win and one of the Falcons, Bears, or Lions to lose. (The line favors the Saints to win, but only the Bears will be line underdogs this week).

  • No line for Rams @ Seahawks at the moment. Presumably it will favor the Seahawks by something; the Rams may have to give former practice-squad quarterback Tom Brandstater his first start. As usual, I will (try to) update when a line becomes available. Update: done. The Seahawks haven't had a 10-point line since 2009 (they covered).

  • Given the way the Patriots are scrambling to find guys to play on defense, I'm not sure how confident I'd be that they can win by 9 this week.

  • The Chiefs seem to be all-or-nothing when it comes to their defense. They have 6 games where they held their opponent to 20 points or less, and 4 games where their opponent scored 31 or more. Whether the Jets can win by 9 is going to depend on which Chiefs defense shows up on game day.

  • Everybody likes the Cowboys to beat the Giants this week. But given the way those two played last Sunday, it seems like the Giants are the team better prepared to make a playoff run.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

NFL Week 13 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 13 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the Bubble:
As noted earlier, the Bills (+6) haven't won since October. Maybe APR has them ranked too low at #26, although the evidence to argue for a higher spot is pretty sparse.
ESPN has the Cowboys (+6) at #9, in spite of the fact that their last three games are an overtime win over the Redskins (ESPN #27), a 1-point win over the Dolphins (ESPN #21), and an overtime loss to the Cardinals (ESPN #18). That doesn't seem like a top-10 team to me, or APR.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
ESPN again calls the Dolphins (-7) "the team no playoff hopeful wants to face", but has them ranked barely out of the bottom 10. It's certainly hard to make the case that they're worse than the Bills, ranked one spot higher by ESPN.

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-4)

Right:
Packers @ Giants
Ravens @ Browns
Jets @ Redskins
Colts @ Patriots
Rams @ 49ers
Bengals @ Steelers
Lions @ Saints

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Bears
Tyler Palko managed to drive the Chiefs into field goal range, and complete a Hail Mary touchdown pass. For the Bears, Caleb Hanie did not play well at all (133 yards and 3 interceptions), Matt Forte left the game after 5 carries, and it wasn't ever enough to give the Bears defense a lead to protect.
Panthers @ Buccaneers
Josh Johnson actually had an OK game in replacement of Josh Freeman. The good news was he led the Bucs on four first-half scoring drives. The bad news was, they were all field goals, and the Panthers were scoring too, mostly touchdowns. The Buccaneers fell behind early and just didn't have enough to catch back up.
Cowboys @ Cardinals
The Cowboys had 336 yards from scrimmage, but too many of their drives stalled just beyond field goal range. The result was 5 punts, two missed field goals, only 13 points scored, and a tie game at the end of regulation. The Cardinals are not a very good team, but they can be dangerous, especially when games are close late.
Eagles @ Seahawks
Maybe the theme for this whole season should be "attitude matters". At 4-7, the Eagles were probably, but not definitely out of the playoff race. And when Vince Young's first pass from scrimmage was intercepted, I think whatever will the Eagles had to make a game of it was pretty well broken. Even though the game wasn't truly over until a late pick-6, it never seemed like the Eagles were a threat to take the lead.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-2, SRS 5-0, Line 2-3)

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
The interesting thing about this game is not that Tim Tebow and the Broncos knocked off yet another weak sister team. The interesting thing is that the Broncos had more yards passing (202) than rushing (150), and Tebow had a very respectable 10 completions and 2 touchdowns on 15 passing attempts. If he can consistently hit that level of productivity passing, I think Tebow really can be more than a short-term gimmick for the Broncos.
Titans (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)
I don't know why the line liked the Bills here. They haven't won a game since October, and with Fred Jackson on IR, that's not likely to change soon. And as long as Chris Johnson is playing well, the Titans are going to be a tough team to beat.
Falcons (Line) @ Texans (APR, SRS)
Looking back on their schedule, the Falcons have played two teams with notably good defenses: the Bears and Texans. Both times they struggled mightily. The Falcons only managed 50 yards rushing, and Matt Ryan had two interceptions and a completion rate well under 50%. T.J. Yates didn't have a great game, but it was better than Matt Ryans', and thanks to the Texans dominating defense, it was enough to get the Texans a win.
Raiders (APR) @ Dolphins (SRS, Line)
I only watched a bit of this game, but from what I saw, the Dolphins walked all over (or, in the case of Reggie Bush's touchdown, right through) the Raiders. The Raiders longest drive before garbage time was just 32 yards. The AFC West will probably belong to the Broncos if this is the best football the Raiders can play right now.
Chargers (SRS, Line) @ Jaguars (APR)
The Chargers played the team with the weakest scoring offense in the league, and not too surprisingly, managed to get a win. It's a mark of how bad that 6-game losing streak was, that APR dropped them below the Jaguars.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 10-6110-65-162.6%
SRS 12-4114-61-165.1%
Line 9-7116-60-065.9%

Monday, December 5, 2011

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.0880
(LW × 0.9737)
12-0Won by 3
@ Giants
2 (-)Ravens1.0600
(LW × 1.0111)
9-3Won by 14
@ Browns
3 (↑3)Steelers1.0521
(LW × 1.0331)
9-3Won by 28
vs Bengals
4 (-)Texans1.0330
(LW × 1.0023)
9-3Won by 7
vs Falcons
5 (↓2)Patriots1.0116
(LW × 0.9794)
9-3Won by 7
vs Colts
6 (↓1)49ers1.0078
(LW × 0.9810)
10-2Won by 26
vs Rams
7 (-)Saints0.9783
(LW × 0.9993)
9-3Won by 14
vs Lions
8 (↑2)Falcons0.9507
(LW × 0.9884)
7-5Lost by 7
@ Texans
9 (↑4)Broncos0.9417
(LW × 1.0216)
7-5Won by 3
@ Vikings
10 (↑1)Bengals0.9339
(LW × 0.9804)
7-5Lost by 28
@ Steelers
11 (↑3)Jets0.9317
(LW × 1.0189)
7-5Won by 15
@ Redskins
12 (↓4)Bears0.9167
(LW × 0.9423)
7-5Lost by 7
vs Chiefs
13 (↓4)Lions0.9139
(LW × 0.9499)
7-5Lost by 14
@ Saints
14 (↑4)Dolphins0.9091
(LW × 1.0442)
4-8Won by 20
vs Raiders
15 (↓3)Cowboys0.9059
(LW × 0.9738)
7-5Lost by 6
@ Cardinals
16 (↓1)Titans0.8995
(LW × 0.9975)
7-5Won by 6
@ Bills
17 (↑6)Chargers0.8814
(LW × 1.0360)
5-7Won by 24
@ Jaguars
18 (↑4)Seahawks0.8729
(LW × 1.0209)
5-7Won by 17
vs Eagles
19 (↓3)Raiders0.8620
(LW × 0.9683)
7-5Lost by 20
@ Dolphins
20 (↓1)Giants0.8619
(LW × 0.9998)
6-6Lost by 3
vs Packers
21 (↑7)Chiefs0.8568
(LW × 1.0576)
5-7Won by 7
@ Bears
22 (↑4)Cardinals0.8464
(LW × 1.0205)
5-7Won by 6
vs Cowboys
23 (↓6)Eagles0.8335
(LW × 0.9546)
4-8Lost by 17
@ Seahawks
24 (↓3)Jaguars0.8296
(LW × 0.9700)
3-9Lost by 24
vs Chargers
25 (-)Vikings0.8295
(LW × 0.9867)
2-10Lost by 3
vs Broncos
26 (↓2)Bills0.8170
(LW × 0.9713)
5-7Lost by 6
vs Titans
27 (↑3)Panthers0.8097
(LW × 1.0205)
4-8Won by 19
@ Buccaneers
28 (↓8)Buccaneers0.8024
(LW × 0.9366)
4-8Lost by 19
vs Panthers
29 (↓2)Browns0.7964
(LW × 0.9825)
4-8Lost by 14
vs Ravens
30 (↓1)Redskins0.7658
(LW × 0.9630)
4-8Lost by 15
vs Jets
31 (-)Rams0.7651
(LW × 1.0037)
2-10Lost by 26
@ 49ers
32 (-)Colts0.6972
(LW × 1.0174)
0-12Lost by 7
@ Patriots

Comments:

  • The Packers and 49ers have clinched their respective divisions. The Packers are one win or one Saints loss away from clinching a first-round bye. However, as long as the 49ers keep winning, the Packers will need to get to 15 wins to clinch the #1 seed, as the tie-breaker could easily go the 49ers way.

  • The Giants are not the first team to lead the Packers this season, but they are the first team to retake the lead once the Packers had it.

  • Joe Flacco only completed 10 passes on Sunday, but the Ravens get by the Browns with a win anyway, thanks to nearly 300 rushing yards by Ray Rice and Ricky Williams. The Ravens will need to keep winning to stay on pace with the Steelers, who could very easily win out their remaining schedule.

  • Was I wrong about how good the Dolphins are? They sure made it look like the Raiders were the team struggling for answers on Sunday. APR also has them in the top half of the rankings, easily the highest ranked team with a losing record.

  • The Texans' win over the Falcons all but eliminates the Titans from the race for the AFC South division crown. But the Titans are currently a tie-breaker away from the 6th seed (along with the Raiders and Jets), and so have a legitimate shot at a wildcard berth. Of all the 7-5 teams in contention for that spot, the Jets remaining schedule looks to be the easiest, but it could easily come down to the final games of the season.

Friday, December 2, 2011

NFL Q3 Strength of Schedule

APR's strength of schedule (played and unplayed games) for each team, based on the week 12 power rankings. Note that this is not the same as the 'strength of schedule' metric mentioned in the official NFL tie breakers.

As usual, a higher value indicates a tougher schedule, lower values indicate an easier schedule.

RankTeamSOS
unplayed
RankSOS
played
1Browns0.9888230.8836
2Rams0.9737140.8975
3Colts0.9704120.9026
4Chiefs0.9601250.8827
5Panthers0.9344170.8932
6Giants0.9320280.8814
7Lions0.930220.9231
8Bengals0.9300270.8824
9Vikings0.923540.9177
10Chargers0.916370.9142
11Raiders0.9161130.9010
12Bills0.9134180.8929
13Cardinals0.9120310.8705
14Dolphins0.9081200.8874
15Bears0.902880.9131
16Redskins0.9022320.8678
17Falcons0.8988190.8877
18Packers0.8974260.8826
19Broncos0.895490.9070
20Saints0.8894300.8789
21Seahawks0.8878110.9037
22Eagles0.8718160.8936
23Titans0.8696150.8963
24Steelers0.8671100.9062
25Buccaneers0.864110.9439
26Cowboys0.8566290.8803
27Texans0.8521240.8829
28Jaguars0.845950.9167
29Jets0.841660.9164
3049ers0.8406220.8858
31Patriots0.8187210.8871
32Ravens0.817330.9198

Comments:

  • The Giants, Lions, and Bengals are the playoff-contending teams with the most difficult remainint schedule. The Giants have the biggest swing from easiest to hardest.

  • The Ravens, Patriots, 49ers, Jets, and Texans are the contending teams with the easiest remaining schedule. Which may not be the best news for the Ravens, who have not done well on the road against weak teams.

  • APR ranks the Packers' strength-of-schedule for games played as 26th hardest. They have played some teams in the top 10 (Saints, Bears, and Lions), but they've also played a lot of teams in the bottom 10 (Chargers, Vikings, Panthers, and Rams).

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

NFL Week 13 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Colts @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.5073
Patriots
δ=25.8
Patriots
-20
Rams @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.3477
49ers
δ=20.1
49ers
-13
Packers @
Giants
Packers
ρ=1.2962
Packers*
δ=15.1
Packers
-7
Ravens @
Browns
Ravens
ρ=1.2935
Ravens*
δ=14.7
Ravens
-7
Chiefs @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.2008
Bears
δ=18.4
Bears
-8
Jets @
Redskins
Jets
ρ=1.1498
Jets*
δ=7.4
Jets
-3
Cowboys @
Cardinals
Cowboys
ρ=1.1216
Cowboys*
δ=10.3
Cowboys
-4½
Broncos @
Vikings
Broncos
ρ=1.0965
Broncos*
δ=3.1
Vikings
-1½
Panthers @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0800
Buccaneers
δ=0.2
Buccaneers
-3
Titans @
Bills
Titans
ρ=1.0721
Titans*
δ=1.7
Bills
-1½
Falcons @
Texans
Texans*
ρ=1.0715
Texans
δ=5.9
Falcons
-1
Bengals @
Steelers
Steelers*
ρ=1.0692
Steelers
δ=1.5
Steelers
-7
Raiders @
Dolphins
Raiders
ρ=1.0226
Dolphins
δ=1.8
Dolphins
-2½
Eagles @
Seahawks
Eagles
ρ=1.0212
Eagles*
δ=5.2
Eagles
-2½
Lions @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0175
Saints
δ=1.0
Saints
-9
Chargers @
Jaguars
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0053
Chargers*
δ=1.3
Chargers
-1½

Comments:

  • No line for Broncos @ Vikings at the moment. Maybe waiting for status on whether Adrian Peterson will play? Hopefully I can update by Saturday. Update: done. Apparently the issue was Von Miller, the Broncos' stand-out rookie LB, and a big part of their defensive resurgence. He had thumb surgery this week, although reportedly he will play.

  • Patriots -20 is the widest line of the season so far, beating out a couple games with lines of -15½. Teams the line favored by 10 or more points are 19-2 (straight up) so far this season.

  • The Ravens with another road game at a weak opponent. They lost at the Titans, Jaguars, and Seahawks. With this and two other road games left, the Ravens need to break that streak to keep ahead of the Steelers.

  • The Titans may have to win out to have a chance to finish ahead of the Texans. They'll need a lot more of those 100+ yard rushing games from Chris Johnson to do it.

  • The Bengals are this years team that is 1) clearly doing better than last year, but 2) taking advantage of the weaker opponents on their schedule. They may get to the playoffs, but if they do, they'll probably play on the road, at an opponent almost certaily better than any team they've beat so far this season.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

NFL Week 12 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

We seem to have reached the late-season agreement phase earlier than usual this year.

On the Bubble:
Chiefs (+7), Redskins (+6), Raiders (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble: Jaguars (-8)
Jack Del Rio (finally) fired as head coach today. The Jaguars have had 3 winning seasons in the last 12.
On the bubble: Dolphins (-8)
ESPN's comment for the Dolphins is priceless:
Miami is the type of scrappy team no playoff contender wants to face. (Walker)
While the Dolphins are probably better than their 3-8 record, they're not that much better. The fact that the Cowboys needed a last-second field goal to beat them by 1 point says more about the Cowboys than it does about the Dolphins.
Any playoff contender worth the name has to be thinking "the Dolphins are the kind of team we need to be able to steamroll early and often".

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (11-1)

Right:
Steelers @ Chiefs
Texans @ Jaguars
Panthers @ Colts
Packers @ Lions
Patriots @ Eagles
Browns @ Bengals
Vikings @ Falcons
Dolphins @ Cowboys
Bills @ Jets
Buccaneers @ Titans
Giants @ Saints

Wrong:

Redskins @ Seahawks
There's also a reason why Rex Grossman was the starting quarterback for the Bears as long as he was—he can, at times (and especially when he has a good supporting cast) play very well. The Seahawks managed to establish a 10-point fourth quarter lead, but "Good Rex" made a showing, driving the Redskins down the field for a couple late touchdowns, and it was more than the Seahawks could respond to.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-2, SRS 1-3, Line 2-2)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)
Beanie Wells racked up a single game franchise record 228 yards rushing, Larry Fitzgerald managed to get 55 yards receiving (in spite of John Skeltons' awful day passing), and Patrick Peterson got another punt return touchdown. Against one of the worst teams in the league, that was enough for a win.
Broncos (APR) @ Chargers (SRS, Line)
Isn't Philip Rivers supposed to be a good quarterback? His passing numbers (19/36, 188 yards, 1 td) sure didn't show it in this game. Tim Tebow was virtually as productive (9/18, 143 yards, 1 td) on half as many attempts. Mix in some very timid play calling, and the Chargers' losing streak is now at 6 games.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)
Thanks to their defense, the Bears were in this game right to the end. But Caleb Hanie's 3 interceptions (along with a general inability to sustain drives) were more than the Bears were able to overcome.
49ers (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)
As mentioned in the power rankings post, Frank Gore (39 yards on 14 carries) never got going in this game. Add in an astonishing 9 sacks on Alex Smith, and nearly 100 yards of penalties, and it's a wonder the 49ers managed to score even two field goals.

Totals

Another nice week of picks all around.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 13-3100-59-162.8%
SRS 12-4102-57-164.1%
Line13-3107-53-066.9%

Monday, November 28, 2011

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.1174
(LW × 1.0185)
11-0Won by 12
@ Lions
2 (↑1)Ravens1.0484
(LW × 1.0186)
8-3Won by 10
vs 49ers
3 (↑2)Patriots1.0328
(LW × 1.0272)
8-3Won by 18
@ Eagles
4 (↑2)Texans1.0306
(LW × 1.0255)
8-3Won by 7
@ Jaguars
5 (↓3)49ers1.0274
(LW × 0.9773)
9-2Lost by 10
@ Ravens
6 (↓2)Steelers1.0184
(LW × 1.0059)
8-3Won by 4
@ Chiefs
7 (↑2)Saints0.9789
(LW × 1.0114)
8-3Won by 25
vs Giants
8 (↓1)Bears0.9728
(LW × 0.9874)
7-4Lost by 5
@ Raiders
9 (↓1)Lions0.9621
(LW × 0.9790)
7-4Lost by 12
vs Packers
10 (↑1)Falcons0.9618
(LW × 1.0076)
7-4Won by 10
vs Vikings
11 (↓1)Bengals0.9525
(LW × 0.9881)
7-4Won by 3
vs Browns
12 (-)Cowboys0.9302
(LW × 0.9923)
7-4Won by 1
vs Dolphins
13 (↑3)Broncos0.9218
(LW × 1.0268)
6-5Won by 3
@ Chargers
14 (-)Jets0.9144
(LW × 1.0121)
6-5Won by 4
vs Bills
15 (-)Titans0.9018
(LW × 1.0027)
6-5Won by 6
vs Buccaneers
16 (↑3)Raiders0.8902
(LW × 1.0304)
7-4Won by 5
vs Bears
17 (↓4)Eagles0.8731
(LW × 0.9639)
4-7Lost by 18
vs Patriots
18 (↑4)Dolphins0.8706
(LW × 1.0253)
3-8Lost by 1
@ Cowboys
19 (↓2)Giants0.8621
(LW × 0.9739)
6-5Lost by 25
@ Saints
20 (-)Buccaneers0.8568
(LW × 1.0015)
4-7Lost by 6
@ Titans
21 (-)Jaguars0.8552
(LW × 1.0047)
3-8Lost by 7
vs Texans
22 (↓4)Seahawks0.8550
(LW × 0.9756)
4-7Lost by 6
vs Redskins
23 (↑1)Chargers0.8507
(LW × 1.0034)
4-7Lost by 3
vs Broncos
24 (↓1)Bills0.8411
(LW × 0.9907)
5-6Lost by 4
@ Jets
25 (-)Vikings0.8407
(LW × 1.0118)
2-9Lost by 10
@ Falcons
26 (-)Cardinals0.8294
(LW × 1.0057)
4-7Won by 3
@ Rams
27 (-)Browns0.8105
(LW × 1.0180)
4-7Lost by 3
@ Bengals
28 (-)Chiefs0.8101
(LW × 1.0264)
4-7Lost by 4
vs Steelers
29 (-)Redskins0.7953
(LW × 1.0106)
4-7Won by 6
@ Seahawks
30 (-)Panthers0.7934
(LW × 1.0123)
3-8Won by 8
@ Colts
31 (-)Rams0.7623
(LW × 1.0016)
2-9Lost by 3
vs Cardinals
32 (-)Colts0.6852
(LW × 0.9866)
0-11Lost by 8
vs Panthers

Comments:

  • Whether it's caused by his broken finger, or something else, Matt Stafford has developed a big problem passing. He had 4 interceptions in the first 7 games of the season, and now has 9 in the last 3.

  • The 49ers have been leaning pretty heavily on Frank Gore's running game. As demonstrated Thursday night, it gets pretty ugly for them when they face a defense that can shut him down.

  • You can add "injury prone" to Matt Leinart's woes. One of the reasons he lost the start to Kurt Warner in Arizona? He broke his collar bone 5 games into the 2007 season.

  • The good news for the Texans is that a win over the hapless Colts in week 16 will give them the tie-breaker over the second-place Titans. That, and one other win will get them to at least 10 wins, which is probably more than the Titans can surpass.

  • The other good news for the Texans is they do have 5 regular season games left to get whomever their quarterback is going to be up to speed and ready for the playoffs.

  • The playoff picture is starting to clear up, at least in the NFC. The Packers and 49ers have reached the win-and-in point (although the Packers need a win and help to clinch their division).

  • The Broncos now have a winning record. Say what you will about Tim Tebow, the Broncos are playing noticably better since they benched Kyle Orton. Attitude makes a difference.