Tuesday, December 20, 2011

2011 Week 15 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-6)

Jaguars @ Falcons
Browns @ Cardinals
Bengals @ Rams
Saints @ Vikings
Cowboys @ Buccaneers
Dolphins @ Bills
Patriots @ Broncos
Lions @ Raiders


Packers @ Chiefs
It turns out the formula to beat the Packers is pretty much the same as it was last year: play good pass defense, ball control on offense, and hope that Rodgers has an off game passing. The fact that Rodgers was missing his #1 receiver Greg Jennings made the "bad game passing" part a lot easier.

Titans @ Colts
This was really the Colts defense finally showing up for a game. They forced 3 turnovers, including a pick-6, and generally kept the injured (Matt Hasselbeck), ineffective (Chris Johnson), and inexperienced (Jake Locker) Titans well in check. The Colts running game put up more than 200 yards, which meant that Dan Orlovsky only had to throw 17 times. The result was the most points scored in the season (and only the third time over 20 points), along with the fewest points allowed (and only the second time less than 24).
Ravens @ Chargers
The Ravens' defense has just not played well on the road this season. 4 of their 5 worst games in terms of yards allowed were @ Tennesse, @ San Diego, @ Pittsburgh, and @ Seattle. The Ravens went 1-3 in those games, and it doesn't bode well for them when they have to play away from Baltimore in the playoffs (even if that turns out to be Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis).
Panthers @ Texans
It's been a pretty easy formula for the Texans this year: they're 10-0 when they hold their opponents under 20 points, and 0-4 when they don't. Maybe that didn't matter that much this week, as T.J. Yates looked a lot more like an inexperienced rookie in this game. One thing is for sure—the Texans can't rely on Yates to carry them to any wins, especially once the playoffs start.
Redskins @ Giants
The Redskins defense just shut down the Giants. The Giants had six drives 21 yards or shorter. Of the five sustained drives they had, three ended (respectively) with a missed field goal, an interception, and a failed 4th down try. The other two resulted in 10 points, which wasn't nearly enough to win the game.
Seahawks @ Bears
As I noted last week, the Seahawks have been quietly looking pretty solid this year. And the Bears, without Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and now Johnny Knox, were simply no match for them.

Split Picks: (APR: 0-2, SRS 1-1, Line 2-0)

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
Well, I was wrong: the Eagles' defense had two good games in a row. The Jets only had one more yard rushing (94) than penalty yards (93), and Sanchez' passing (150 yards, 2 interceptions) was not able to make up the difference. And while the Eagles offense had a sloppy game (1 interception and 5 fumbles, 3 lost), they were able to move the ball efficiently enough when they did have it that the turnovers didn't much matter.
Steelers (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, Line)
Ben Roethlisberger's injured ankle was clearly a major issue, with 3 interceptions and 3 sacks at least partially attributable to his lack of mobility. Also, I suppose, the Steelers apparent complete lack of confidence in backup quarterbacks Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon.


Not the greatest week for anyone, although the Line doesn't fall back as far as APR or SRS.

APR 8-8131-76-163.2%
SRS 9-7135-72-165.1%