Thursday, June 26, 2008

AFL Playoffs, round 1: Game Picks

Picks for the first round of the playoffs.

Another weakness of the "final score" style of power rankings: teams like Arizona (who has known their playoff seed since kickoff of their week 16 game) may look weaker than they really are.

Note that since Utah and Colorado are both 6-10, there will be a 6-10 team advance to the second round of the playoffs...

GameAPRSRSITP
New York Dragons @
Dallas Desperados
Desperados
ρ=1.0655
Desperados
δ= 5.1
Desperados
Colorado Crush @
Utah Blaze
Blaze
ρ=1.0890
Blaze
δ= 3.5
Blaze
Orlando Predators @
Cleveland Gladiators
Gladiators
ρ=1.0529
Gladiators
δ= 0.5
Gladiators
Grand Rapids Rampage @
Arizona Rattlers
Rampage
ρ=1.0277
Rampage
δ= 2.6
Rattlers
Bye: San Jose, Chicago, Philadelphia, Georgia

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

AFL Week 17 Pick Results and Power Rankings

Pick Standings

APR finishes the regular season a game ahead of SRS, and 1.5 games ahead of ITP.

APRSRSITPHome
Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
Week 9(620)(620)(620)(620)
Week 10(260)(350)(440)(620)
Week 11(350)(350)(350)(620)
Week 12(620)(710)(620)(350)
Week 13(350)(260)(350)(530)
Week 14(710)(620)(620)(350)
Week 15(530)(620)(260)(530)
Week 16(620)(530)(530)(620)
Week 17(440)(620)(530)(530)
Totals:(81461)(80471)(80480)(76520)
63.7% 62.9% 62.5% 59.4%

Power Rankings

Philadelphia finishes with a pretty convincing #1 ranking, with Dallas a pretty distant 4th place, in spite of their 2nd-best record.

3 teams with losing records (Utah, Grand Rapids, and Colorado, all 6-10) make the playoffs, while 2 0.500 teams (Tampa Bay and New Orleans) are done for the season.

Highest ranked team out of the playoffs: #6 Tampa Bay (8-8). Lowest ranked team in the playoffs: #14 Colorado (6-10).

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW)Philadelphia
Soul
13-3-01.5135
(LW * 1.0300)
beat Dragons by 29
2 (LW-2)San Jose
SaberCats
11-5-01.4454
(LW * 1.0129)
beat Force by 6
3 (LW+1)Georgia
Force
10-6-01.4397
(LW * 0.9867)
lost to SaberCats by 6
4 (LW+1)Dallas
Desperados
12-4-01.4109
(LW * 0.9745)
lost to Rush by 12
5 (LW-2)Chicago
Rush
11-5-01.3984
(LW * 1.0349)
beat Desperados by 12
6 (LW)Tampa Bay
Storm
8-8-01.3705
(LW * 1.0093)
beat Avengers by 25
7 (LW-1)Cleveland
Gladiators
9-7-01.3489
(LW * 1.0033)
beat Destroyers by 12
8 (LW+3)New York
Dragons
8-8-01.3242
(LW * 0.9599)
lost to Soul by 29
9 (LW-3)Utah
Blaze
6-10-01.3203
(LW * 1.0578)
beat Rattlers by 17
10 (LW)Orlando
Predators
9-7-01.2811
(LW * 0.9954)
Bye
11 (LW+2)New Orleans
VooDoo
8-8-01.2780
(LW * 0.9507)
lost to Rampage by 16
12 (LW-1)Grand Rapids
Rampage
6-10-01.2677
(LW * 1.0661)
beat VooDoo by 16
13 (LW+2)Arizona
Rattlers
8-8-01.2334
(LW * 0.9615)
lost to Blaze by 17
14 (LW)Colorado
Crush
6-10-01.2124
(LW * 1.0313)
beat Brigade by 24
15 (LW)Los Angeles
Avengers
5-11-01.1392
(LW * 0.9890)
lost to Storm by 25
16 (LW)Kansas City
Brigade
3-13-01.1218
(LW * 0.9844)
lost to Crush by 24
17 (LW)Columbus
Destroyers
3-13-01.1120
(LW * 1.0019)
lost to Gladiators by 12

Saturday, June 21, 2008

AFL Week 17: Game picks

Picks for week 17.

Last week of the regular season. None of these picks take into account teams with a clinched playoff spot, and will be resting some of their players for the playoffs.

GameAPRSRSITP
Grand Rapids Rampage @
New Orleans VooDoo
VooDoo
ρ=1.1305
VooDoo
δ= 8.3
VooDoo
Columbus Destroyers @
Cleveland Gladiators
Gladiators
ρ=1.2114
Gladiators
δ= 7.8
Gladiators
Los Angeles Avengers @
Tampa Bay Storm
Storm
ρ=1.1788
Storm
δ=10.1
Storm
Kansas City Brigade @
Colorado Crush
Crush
ρ=1.0316
Crush
δ= 3.5
Crush
Utah Blaze @
Arizona Rattlers
Rattlers
ρ=1.0277
Blaze
δ= 0.5
Rattlers
Georgia Force @
San Jose SaberCats
Force
ρ=1.0225
Force
δ= 2.5
SaberCats
Philadelphia Soul @
New York Dragons
Soul
ρ=1.0652
Soul
δ= 8.7
Soul
Dallas Desperados @
Chicago Rush
Desperados
ρ=1.0714
Rush
δ= 1.9
Desperados
Bye: Orlando Predators

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

AFL Week 16 Pick Results and Power Rankings

Pick Standings

APR misses just 2 games, both unanimous picks. For one (Colorado @ Arizona), Arizona had already clinched the #3 playoff seed at kickoff, and don't have anything to play for.

Interestingly, in spite of the wide spread of records, a lot of stuff still hangs in the balance. Dallas and Philadelphia are in the same division, the winner will not be determined until the final games of the season.

Another thing that has to be regarded as a pretty big embarrasment: in the American Conference, three 10-loss teams will make the playoffs (and, depending on how next week goes, maybe an 11-loss team). Yet in the National Conference, at least one 8-win team will end up on the outside looking in.

APRSRSITPHome
Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
Week 9(620)(620)(620)(620)
Week 10(260)(350)(440)(620)
Week 11(350)(350)(350)(620)
Week 12(620)(710)(620)(350)
Week 13(350)(260)(350)(530)
Week 14(710)(620)(620)(350)
Week 15(530)(620)(260)(530)
Week 16(620)(530)(530)(620)
Totals:(77421)(74451)(75450)(71490)
64.6% 62.1% 62.5% 59.2%

Power Rankings

Only one game decided by more than 3 points this week, so except for Arizona and Colorado, not much motion. Note that the top 4 teams have pretty close power indexes.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW)Philadelphia
Soul
12-3-01.4694
(LW * 0.9920)
beat Gladiators by 1
2 (LW)Georgia
Force
10-5-01.4591
(LW * 0.9873)
beat Rush by 3
3 (LW)Dallas
Desperados
12-3-01.4478
(LW * 0.9997)
beat Dragons by 2
4 (LW)San Jose
SaberCats
10-5-01.4270
(LW * 1.0018)
beat Storm by 3
5 (LW)New York
Dragons
8-7-01.3795
(LW * 1.0014)
lost to Desperados by 2
6 (LW-1)Tampa Bay
Storm
7-8-01.3579
(LW * 0.9977)
lost to SaberCats by 3
7 (LW-2)Chicago
Rush
10-5-01.3513
(LW * 1.0118)
lost to Force by 3
8 (LW-2)Cleveland
Gladiators
8-7-01.3445
(LW * 1.0140)
lost to Soul by 1
9 (LW+3)New Orleans
VooDoo
8-7-01.3443
(LW * 0.9833)
lost to Predators by 2
10 (LW-1)Orlando
Predators
9-7-01.2870
(LW * 1.0088)
beat VooDoo by 2
11 (LW+3)Arizona
Rattlers
8-7-01.2828
(LW * 0.9581)
lost to Crush by 7
12 (LW)Utah
Blaze
5-10-01.2482
(LW * 1.0075)
Bye
13 (LW)Grand Rapids
Rampage
5-10-01.1891
(LW * 1.0215)
beat Destroyers by 3
14 (LW-3)Colorado
Crush
5-10-01.1756
(LW * 1.0671)
beat Rattlers by 7
15 (LW+1)Los Angeles
Avengers
5-10-01.1519
(LW * 1.0036)
beat Brigade by 3
16 (LW+1)Kansas City
Brigade
3-12-01.1395
(LW * 0.9945)
lost to Avengers by 3
17 (LW+1)Columbus
Destroyers
3-12-01.1099
(LW * 0.9839)
lost to Rampage by 3

NFL: top 10 "unbreakable" records

NFL.com has an article on the "Top 10 records never to be broken in NFL history". A few comments come to mind:

  • Derrick Thomas's seven sacks in one game doesn't seem that unbreakable given the fact that just last season, the Giants sacked Donovan McNabb 12 times, including 6 by Osi Umenyiora (just one less than the record).

  • The '72 Dolphins' "perfect season" doesn't seem that unbreakable either, given that (again, just last season) the Patriots were one defensive stop away from 19-0.

  • No mention of Jerry Rice? Take your pick on which of his records is the most "unbreakable". I'd be willing to bet that both the "7 sacks in one game" and the "perfect season" records will be tied or exceeded before even half of Rice's records are broken.

  • Of those listed, I think the ones most likely to be truely unbreakable are the longevity-related ones: Landry's 29 seasons with the Cowboys, Favre's 16-season consecutive starts, Shula's 347 wins.

Friday, June 13, 2008

AFL Week 16 Game Picks

Picks for week 16. Only Chicago @ Georgia is not a unanimous pick.

None of these pick methods take into account whether or not teams have anything to play for in the postseason, so take things with an extra-large grain of salt as the postseason starts to firm up.

GameAPRSRSITP
New Orleans VooDoo @
Orlando Predators
VooDoo
ρ=1.0716
VooDoo
δ= 5.0
VooDoo
Grand Rapids Rampage @
Columbus Destroyers
Rampage
ρ=1.0319
Rampage
δ= 3.8
Rampage
Chicago Rush @
Georgia Force
Force
ρ=1.1066
Rush
δ= 2.1
Rush
Cleveland Gladiators @
Philadelphia Soul
Soul
ρ=1.1171
Soul
δ=10.5
Soul
New York Dragons @
Dallas Desperados
Desperados
ρ=1.0513
Desperados
δ= 4.8
Desperados
Tampa Bay Storm @
San Jose SaberCats
SaberCats
ρ=1.0466
SaberCats
δ= 1.9
SaberCats
Kansas City Brigade @
Los Angeles Avengers
Avengers
ρ=1.0017
Avengers
δ= 1.7
Avengers
Colorado Crush @
Arizona Rattlers
Rattlers
ρ=1.2154
Rattlers
δ= 4.8
Rattlers
Bye: Utah Blaze

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

AFL Week 15: Pick Results and Power Rankings

Pick Standings

ITP takes a major hit, and APR takes the lead in games called correctly.

APRSRSITPHome
Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
Week 9(620)(620)(620)(620)
Week 10(260)(350)(440)(620)
Week 11(350)(350)(350)(620)
Week 12(620)(710)(620)(350)
Week 13(350)(260)(350)(530)
Week 14(710)(620)(620)(350)
Week 15(530)(620)(260)(530)
Totals:(71401)(69421)(70420)(65470)
63.8% 62.1% 62.5% 58.0%

Power Rankings

Dallas finds their stay in the top spot brief, thanks to their inability to beat Philly. Chicago would probably be in the mix too, except for their devastating 19-point loss to Grand Rapids.

Of course, Chicago has already clinched their division and a first-round bye, so they may be coasting a bit (and with the head-to-head tie-breaker, they've essentially got a game-and-a-half lead over San Jose for HFA).

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW-2)Philadelphia
Soul
11-3-01.4813
(LW * 1.0344)
beat Desperados by 7
2 (LW)Georgia
Force
9-5-01.4779
(LW * 1.0174)
beat Destroyers by 29
3 (LW+2)Dallas
Desperados
11-3-01.4482
(LW * 0.9792)
lost to Soul by 7
4 (LW)San Jose
SaberCats
9-5-01.4245
(LW * 1.0003)
Bye
5 (LW-2)New York
Dragons
8-6-01.3776
(LW * 1.0276)
beat VooDoo by 7
6 (LW)New Orleans
VooDoo
8-6-01.3672
(LW * 0.9848)
lost to Dragons by 7
7 (LW-1)Tampa Bay
Storm
7-7-01.3611
(LW * 1.0221)
beat Predators by 10
8 (LW-1)Arizona
Rattlers
8-6-01.3389
(LW * 1.0349)
beat Brigade by 39
9 (LW+4)Chicago
Rush
10-4-01.3356
(LW * 0.9583)
lost to Gladiators by 21
10 (LW-1)Cleveland
Gladiators
8-6-01.3260
(LW * 1.0437)
beat Rush by 21
11 (LW+1)Orlando
Predators
8-7-01.2758
(LW * 0.9878)
lost to Storm by 10
12 (LW)Utah
Blaze
5-10-01.2388
(LW * 1.0061)
beat Avengers by 9
13 (LW-3)Grand Rapids
Rampage
4-10-01.1640
(LW * 1.0247)
beat Crush by 19
14 (LW)Los Angeles
Avengers
4-10-01.1478
(LW * 0.9962)
lost to Blaze by 9
15 (LW+2)Kansas City
Brigade
3-11-01.1459
(LW * 0.9621)
lost to Rattlers by 39
16 (LW+1)Columbus
Destroyers
3-11-01.1280
(LW * 0.9844)
lost to Force by 29
17 (LW)Colorado
Crush
4-10-01.1016
(LW * 0.9730)
lost to Rampage by 19

Friday, June 6, 2008

AFL Week 15: Game Picks

Picks for week 15.

GameAPRSRSITP
Colorado Crush @
Grand Rapids Rampage
Rampage
ρ=1.0034
Rampage
δ= 2.3
Crush
Georgia Force @
Columbus Destroyers
Force
ρ=1.2676
Force
δ=10.6
Force
New Orleans VooDoo @
New York Dragons
VooDoo
ρ=1.0356
VooDoo
δ= 5.5
VooDoo
Chicago Rush @
Cleveland Gladiators
Rush
ρ=1.0970
Rush
δ=12.6
Rush
Orlando Predators @
Tampa Bay Storm
Storm
ρ=1.0310
Storm
δ= 0.2
Predators
Philadelphia Soul @
Dallas Desperados
Desperados
ρ=1.0328
Soul
δ= 4.9
Desperados
Arizona Rattlers @
Kansas City Brigade
Rattlers
ρ=1.0863
Rattlers
δ= 2.2
Rattlers
Los Angeles Avengers @
Utah Blaze
Blaze
ρ=1.0687
Blaze
δ= 5.5
Avengers
Bye: San Jose SaberCats

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

AFL Week 14: Pick Standings and Power Rankings

Pick Standings

Arizona continues to make their case that they're underrated. And, for once, APR is on the happy side of a disagreement with ITP.

APRSRSITPHome
Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
Week 9(620)(620)(620)(620)
Week 10(260)(350)(440)(620)
Week 11(350)(350)(350)(620)
Week 12(620)(710)(620)(350)
Week 13(350)(260)(350)(530)
Week 14(710)(620)(620)(350)
Totals:(66371)(63401)(68360)(60440)
63.9% 61.1% 65.4% 57.7%

Power Rankings

Dallas finally gets to the top spot, thanks to a strong win over Cleveland. The botom four teams are all clustered pretty close together, so there's a lot of churn based on how bad APR decides each team's loss is. Note that 6 teams from each conference makes the playoffs, so

  1. At 7-6, Arizona has clinched a playoff spot (thanks to the fact that only 3 teams in their conference are north of 4 wins).

  2. At least one 10-loss and one 9-loss team is going to the playoffs. But that's what happens when the regular season only eliminates 3 teams from the playoffs.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW-1)Dallas
Desperados
11-2-01.4790
(LW * 1.0240)
beat Gladiators by 16
2 (LW+1)Georgia
Force
8-5-01.4526
(LW * 1.0008)
beat Storm by 1
3 (LW)Philadelphia
Soul
10-3-01.4319
(LW * 0.9980)
Bye
4 (LW-1)San Jose
SaberCats
9-5-01.4241
(LW * 1.0150)
beat Avengers by 10
5 (LW+1)Chicago
Rush
10-3-01.3937
(LW * 0.9818)
beat Brigade by 5
6 (LW)New Orleans
VooDoo
8-5-01.3883
(LW * 1.0143)
beat Destroyers by 22
7 (LW-2)New York
Dragons
7-6-01.3406
(LW * 1.0047)
beat Crush by 8
8 (LW+1)Tampa Bay
Storm
6-7-01.3317
(LW * 0.9941)
lost to Force by 1
9 (LW-2)Arizona
Rattlers
7-6-01.2938
(LW * 1.0491)
beat Predators by 7
10 (LW+2)Orlando
Predators
8-6-01.2916
(LW * 0.9645)
lost to Rattlers by 7
11 (LW+1)Cleveland
Gladiators
7-6-01.2704
(LW * 0.9575)
lost to Desperados by 16
12 (LW)Utah
Blaze
4-10-01.2314
(LW * 1.0234)
beat Rampage by 7
13 (LW)Kansas City
Brigade
3-10-01.1910
(LW * 1.0071)
lost to Rush by 5
14 (LW-3)Los Angeles
Avengers
4-9-01.1522
(LW * 0.9962)
lost to SaberCats by 10
15 (LW+1)Columbus
Destroyers
3-10-01.1459
(LW * 0.9839)
lost to VooDoo by 22
16 (LW+1)Grand Rapids
Rampage
3-10-01.1360
(LW * 0.9776)
lost to Blaze by 7
17 (LW+1)Colorado
Crush
4-9-01.1322
(LW * 0.9745)
lost to Dragons by 8