Wednesday, October 30, 2013

NFL Week 9 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Buccaneers @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.4429
Seahawks
δ=19.4
Seahawks
-16
Vikings @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.2765
Cowboys
δ=14.7
Cowboys
-10
Saints @
Jets
Saints
ρ=1.2627
Saints*
δ=18.9
Saints
-6
Colts @
Texans
Colts
ρ=1.2260
Colts*
δ=16.5
Colts
-2½
Steelers @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.2085
Patriots
δ=7.7
Patriots
-6½
Chiefs @
Bills
Chiefs
ρ=1.1895
Chiefs*
δ=10.7
Chiefs
-3
Bears @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.1841
Packers
δ=8.7
Packers
-10½
Falcons @
Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.1593
Panthers
δ=11.8
Panthers
-7½
Bengals @
Dolphins
Bengals
ρ=1.1428
Bengals*
δ=5.9
Bengals
-3
Chargers @
Redskins
Chargers
ρ=1.1173
Chargers*
δ=6.3
Chargers
-1
Titans @
Rams
Titans
ρ=1.0549
Titans*
δ=3.9
Titans
-3
Ravens @
Browns
Ravens*
ρ=1.0501
Ravens*
δ=3.0
Ravens
-2½
Eagles @
Raiders
Raiders*
ρ=1.0203
Raiders
δ=1.9
Raiders
-2½

Bye: Jaguars, Cardinals, 49ers, Lions, Giants, Broncos

Comments:

  • No split picks at all his week!

  • Earlier, they had the winless Jaguars, now the winless Buccaneers. The Seahawks aren't exactly running the gauntlet on their home schedule this year, are they?

  • Should the Cowboys be on upset alert? As noted in last week's pick results, they have a pretty bad defense, which means that Adrian Peterson may be looking at one of his best games of the season. Even with the mess they have at quarterback, this could be a game the Vikings could win.

  • And maybe the Saints should be on upset alert too. The Jets are actually 3-1 at home, and the Saints have had trouble on the road, including a 2-point win at the hapless Bucs coming on a walk-off field goal.

  • The Chiefs are not going to go 16-0 this year, but with the Bills deciding between Matt Flynn and undrafted rooke Jeff Tuel, it doesn't seem likely this is the week for their first loss.

  • Unless the Eagles can figure out what's wrong with their offense by Sunday, the Raiders should cover 2½ easily.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

NFL: Week 8 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 8 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Jets (+8)
Somehow ESPN only drops the Jets a single spot after getting absolutely demolished by the Bengals. With losses like that one (and the 25 point loss to the Titans a few weeks ago), the Jets just don't seem like they belong as high as #16.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than the Colts (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
APR and ESPN both move the Packers (-6) up one spot after their dismantling of the Vikings. I don't really have anything to add over what I said last week. Except that the Bears and Lions are the only opponents left on the Packers' schedule that have winning records. So, especially if they can handle the Cutlerless Bears Monday night, they will have a pretty clear shot to a third consecutive division title.

NFL Week 8 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-1)

Right:

Panthers @ Buccaneers
49ers "@" Jaguars (London)
Packers @ Vikings
Seahawks @ Rams
Browns @ Chiefs
Bills @ Saints
Dolphins @ Patriots
Redskins @ Broncos
Jets @ Bengals
Falcons @ Cardinals

Wrong:

Giants @ Eagles
This is the second week in a row the Eagles offense has seemed... just broken. Yeah, they had to play their inexperienced 3rd string rookie quarterback for most of the game (statistically, he actually did noticably better than last week). But they got no support from the running game (a paltry 48 yards rushing on 19 carries). It just wasn't anywhere near enough, even against the reeling Giants.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Steelers (Line) @ Raiders (APR, SRS)
The Steelers are playing better than they were at the start of the season, but they're still not very good, and it dosn't take many mistakes to put them in a hole they can't get out of. Besides Terrelle Pryor's 93 yard touchdown run, the Raiders also partially blocked a punt, which set them up with a short field they were able to convert into a touchdown. Other than that, the Raiders only had one sustained drive all game. But they got a touchdown out of it, and that was enough to put the game out of reach.
Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)
Certainly the Cowboys had every chance to win this game, and while their offense had some issues, I think the blame (once again) has to go to the defense. Yeah, they produced 4 turnovers (which the offense didn't do much with). But they also let the Lions score 31 points, mostly in the 4th quarter, and including a final, game winning, 80 yard drive that started with 50 seconds left, and no timeouts for the Lions. That's just a situation where even moderately good defenses don't give up a touchdown.

Totals

A very nice week for everybody.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 2 61-4358.7%
SRS 11- 2 64-4061.5%
Line 11- 2 67-3764.4%

Monday, October 28, 2013

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.0647
(LW × 0.9902)
7-1Won by 24
vs Redskins
2 (↑1)Packers1.0555
(LW × 1.0063)
5-2Won by 13
@ Vikings
3 (↓1)Seahawks1.0493
(LW × 0.9894)
7-1Won by 5
@ Rams
4 (↑1)Saints1.0361
(LW × 1.0043)
6-1Won by 18
vs Bills
5 (↓1)Chiefs1.0200
(LW × 0.9761)
8-0Won by 6
vs Browns
6 (↑1)49ers1.0091
(LW × 1.0016)
6-2Won by 32
@ Jaguars
7 (↑2)Bengals1.0039
(LW × 1.0274)
6-2Won by 40
vs Jets
8 (↓2)Colts1.0005
(LW × 0.9887)
5-2Bye
9 (↑1)Lions0.9930
(LW × 1.0297)
5-3Won by 1
vs Cowboys
10 (↓2)Cowboys0.9752
(LW × 0.9899)
4-4Lost by 1
@ Lions
11 (-)Patriots0.9571
(LW × 0.9941)
6-2Won by 10
vs Dolphins
12 (↑1)Panthers0.9492
(LW × 1.0340)
4-3Won by 18
@ Buccaneers
13 (↓1)Chargers0.9234
(LW × 0.9829)
4-3Bye
14 (↑1)Cardinals0.9219
(LW × 1.0270)
4-4Won by 14
vs Falcons
15 (↓1)Ravens0.9096
(LW × 1.0007)
3-4Bye
16 (↑2)Bears0.8914
(LW × 1.0199)
4-3Bye
17 (↓1)Dolphins0.8785
(LW × 0.9792)
3-4Lost by 10
@ Patriots
18 (↓1)Titans0.8772
(LW × 0.9892)
3-4Bye
19 (↑5)Browns0.8662
(LW × 1.0335)
3-5Lost by 6
@ Chiefs
20 (↓1)Bills0.8576
(LW × 0.9910)
3-5Lost by 18
@ Saints
21 (↑2)Raiders0.8336
(LW × 0.9882)
3-4Won by 3
vs Steelers
22 (↑4)Rams0.8316
(LW × 1.0088)
3-5Lost by 5
vs Seahawks
23 (↑2)Redskins0.8265
(LW × 0.9921)
2-5Lost by 24
@ Broncos
24 (↓2)Jets0.8205
(LW × 0.9679)
4-4Lost by 40
@ Bengals
25 (↓4)Falcons0.8187
(LW × 0.9557)
2-5Lost by 14
@ Cardinals
26 (↓6)Eagles0.8170
(LW × 0.9471)
3-5Lost by 8
vs Giants
27 (-)Texans0.8161
(LW × 0.9938)
2-5Bye
28 (↑1)Giants0.8050
(LW × 1.0415)
2-6Won by 8
@ Eagles
29 (↓1)Steelers0.7920
(LW × 1.0112)
2-5Lost by 3
@ Raiders
30 (↑1)Vikings0.7639
(LW × 1.0346)
1-6Lost by 13
vs Packers
31 (↓1)Buccaneers0.7273
(LW × 0.9577)
0-7Lost by 18
vs Panthers
32 (-)Jaguars0.6887
(LW × 0.9844)
0-8Lost by 32
vs 49ers

Comments:

  • The Seahawks manage another unimpressive road win against a bad opponent. They don't have a lot of margin over the 49ers, Saints, and Packers, and they probably don't want to have to play on the road against any of those teams in the playoffs.

  • As bad as the Falcons have been this season, they had their worst game yet on Sunday. Their offense couldn't move the ball, Their defense allowed 3 long scoring drives that put them in a 21-6 hole at halftime. They're just not a second half come-back team, and that was apparent in this game, where their offense produced as many interceptions as scoring drives (and that's counting a touchdown drive they managed well into garbage time).

  • Is there any figuring the Jets? One week they go toe-to-toe with the Patriots, and manage an overtime win. The next week they get absolutely crushed by the Bengals.

  • The Chiefs rack up another unimpressive win against what appears to be a pretty weak opponent. Yeah, they're 8-0 (and thus, will be at the top of most power rankings), but that lack of offensive production could very easily spell an early exit from the playoffs.

  • And speaking of the Chiefs, I think we can mark down Andy Reid as coach of the year. Sean Payton might get some consideration, especially if the Saints win the division and clinch one of the top two seeds. Perhaps Bruce Arians could get some consideration too, especially if the Cardinals somehow get to 9 wins this year.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

NFL Week 8 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
49ers @
Jaguars
49ers
ρ=1.4399
49ers*
δ=24.0
49ers
-16½
Packers @
Vikings
Packers
ρ=1.4205
Packers*
δ=18.1
Packers
-10
Redskins @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.2907
Broncos
δ=16.6
Broncos
-13
Seahawks @
Rams
Seahawks
ρ=1.2865
Seahawks*
δ=15.8
Seahawks
-11
Browns @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.2468
Chiefs
δ=12.5
Chiefs
-7½
Panthers @
Buccaneers
Panthers
ρ=1.2088
Panthers*
δ=14.3
Panthers
-6
Bills @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.1922
Saints
δ=10.6
Saints
-12
Jets @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1527
Bengals
δ=7.2
Bengals
-6½
Giants @
Eagles
Eagles*
ρ=1.1161
Eagles
δ=7.5
Eagles
-6½
Steelers @
Raiders
Raiders*
ρ=1.0769
Raiders
δ=4.8
Steelers
-2½
Dolphins @
Patriots
Patriots*
ρ=1.0732
Patriots
δ=0.4
Patriots
-7
Falcons @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.0478
Cardinals
δ=1.3
Cardinals
-2½
Cowboys @
Lions
Cowboys
ρ=1.0215
Cowboys*
δ=5.9
Lions
-3

Bye: Ravens, Chargers, Titans, Bears, Colts, Texans

Comments:

  • Only a couple split picks this week (Steelers @ Raiders and Cowboys @ Lions).

  • Reports are that the Vikings plan to start Josh Freeman again this week. It could be Leslie Frasier's job if he doesn't do better this week. (Although the way the Vikings have been playing, Frasier could be out at the end of the season anyway.)

    Update: Late reports are that Josh Freeman has a concussion, and may not play Sunday night. Also, apparently Christian Ponder is next in line. Does that mean Matt Cassel is hurt too, or have the Vikings really soured on him that much? Ponder's first three starts sure weren't anything to write home about (at least not for Vikings fans). To my eye, Matt Cassel's numbers look better than Ponder's. Although Ponder did have some good games at the end of the season last year, so maybe the Vikings are hoping that will somehow return this week.

  • With Jermichael Finley out for a while (and maybe the season), the Packers are down to one experienced receiver (Jordy Nelson), unless James Jones can play this week. Second year player Jarrett Boykin had a very good game against the Browns on Sunday. It will help the Packers a lot if that turns out to be a trend, and not a fluke.

  • The good news for the Packers is none of their remaining opponents are more than a game over 0.500, so they should be able to finish strong even with a lot of inexperienced players at key positions.

  • For a team that was the #1 seed in the NFC last year, the Falcons have fallen a long way to be unanimously picked to lose to a struggling Cardinals team.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

NFL Week 7: APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 6 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Jets (+7)
I'm not quite sure what to make of the Jets right now. The Patriots are the only quality team they've beaten, and they've had a couple late wins pretty much gifted to them. On the other hand, their defense has been doing pretty well, and Geno Smith has only a couple games with a passer rating lower than 71.9. If they can even split their next two games (@ Bengals, vs Saints), I'll be willing to admit they belong higher in the rankings.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than the Bears (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Cardinals (-9)
As mentioned last week, Carson Palmer is the weak link on this team, and he threw a couple more game-breaking interceptions last Thursday. Still, I think because of the strength of their defense and special teams, the Cards are better than at least a few of the teams ESPN has ranked above them (Browns, Falcons, Eagles)
On the bubble:
The Packers (-6), and all the other highly ranked teams seem pretty close together, and I don't see a real favorite. All of the teams ESPN has rated above them have a better win-loss record, so I don't see anything to complain about ESPN's #9 rank. This is another difference that will have to be resolved going forward.

NFL Week 7 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-4)

Right:

Seahawks @ Cardinals
Chargers @ Jaguars
49ers @ Titans
Browns @ Packers
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Panthers @ Rams
Texans @ Chiefs

Wrong:

Bills @ Dolphins
This was a very sloppy game for the Dolphins, starting with a pick 6 on their first possession, and continuing on through to a lost fumble late in the fourth quarter when they were trying to protect a 1-point lead. Turnovers are always bad; turnovers that give your opponents points can be (and in this case were) game breakers.
Bengals @ Lions
The Lions haven't won this season without scoring at least 27 points, or getting at least a couple turnovers. Neither of those things happened in this game. Still, they were in this right to the end, but couldn't put together one more touchdown drive to put this game away.
Patriots @ Jets
Another game by Tom Brady with a completion rate below 50%, and no touchdowns sure didn't help the Patriots. Geno Smith actually had better passing stats (though not by a lot). And, for the second time this season, a late penalty set the Jets up for a game-winning field goal. That can't be an actual strategy. Right?
Broncos @ Colts
That was a really ugly game for the Broncos. Turnovers, penalties, lousy protection on the offensive line, as well as the Broncos' bad defense all played their part to give the Broncos their first loss.

Split Picks: (APR 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
Nick Foles had a terrible day (11/29, 80 yards) even before he left the game, and LeSean McCoy's 55 yards rushing wasn't anywhere near enough to take up the slack. The Cowboys' defense has done okay against lesser offenses, but this was ridiculous. The Eagles' offense just didn't produce anything on the field.
Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
The Steelers were surprisingly efficient on offense in this game. Not counting a kneel down at the end of the first half, they only had two drives that didn't end in a score. Couple that with a solid defensive effort in holding the Ravens to 16 points, and it was enough for them to get the win.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (Line)
Didn't the Bears used to have a defense? Although, looking at their box scores this season, this is the third game they've given up at least 30 points. It's not going to matter much who they've got under center if their defense can't stop anybody.
Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
Whatever their other problems are, the Giants still have a good rush defense, which means they were able to shut down Adrian Peterson. And with Josh Freeman starting at quarterback, with barely any time to learn the playbook, it's no surprise that they were able to shut down the Vikings offense.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 8- 7 50-4154.9%
SRS 8- 7 53-3858.2%
Line 10- 5 56-3561.5%

Monday, October 21, 2013

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.0752
(LW × 0.9753)
6-1Lost by 6
@ Colts
2 (↑3)Seahawks1.0605
(LW × 1.0354)
6-1Won by 12
@ Cardinals
3 (↑1)Packers1.0489
(LW × 1.0164)
4-2Won by 18
vs Browns
4 (↓2)Chiefs1.0451
(LW × 0.9653)
7-0Won by 1
vs Texans
5 (↓2)Saints1.0316
(LW × 0.9776)
5-1Bye
6 (↑1)Colts1.0119
(LW × 1.0292)
5-2Won by 6
vs Broncos
7 (↑2)49ers1.0074
(LW × 1.0560)
5-2Won by 14
@ Titans
8 (↑2)Cowboys0.9851
(LW × 1.0395)
4-3Won by 14
@ Eagles
9 (↑3)Bengals0.9772
(LW × 1.0344)
5-2Won by 3
@ Lions
10 (↓4)Lions0.9644
(LW × 0.9663)
4-3Lost by 3
vs Bengals
11 (↓3)Patriots0.9628
(LW × 0.9803)
5-2Lost by 3
@ Jets
12 (↑2)Chargers0.9394
(LW × 1.0185)
4-3Won by 18
@ Jaguars
13 (↑6)Panthers0.9180
(LW × 1.0387)
3-3Won by 15
vs Rams
14 (↓1)Ravens0.9090
(LW × 0.9683)
3-4Lost by 3
@ Steelers
15 (-)Cardinals0.8977
(LW × 0.9824)
3-4Lost by 12
vs Seahawks
16 (↓5)Dolphins0.8971
(LW × 0.9491)
3-3Lost by 2
vs Bills
17 (↓1)Titans0.8868
(LW × 0.9740)
3-4Lost by 14
vs 49ers
18 (-)Bears0.8739
(LW × 0.9821)
4-3Lost by 4
@ Redskins
19 (↑5)Bills0.8653
(LW × 1.0404)
3-4Won by 2
@ Dolphins
20 (↓3)Eagles0.8627
(LW × 0.9525)
3-4Lost by 14
vs Cowboys
21 (↓1)Falcons0.8567
(LW × 0.9936)
2-4Won by 8
vs Buccaneers
22 (↑3)Jets0.8477
(LW × 1.0348)
4-3Won by 3
vs Patriots
23 (↓1)Raiders0.8435
(LW × 0.9978)
2-4Bye
24 (↓3)Browns0.8382
(LW × 0.9770)
3-4Lost by 18
@ Packers
25 (↑1)Redskins0.8331
(LW × 1.0186)
2-4Won by 4
vs Bears
26 (↓3)Rams0.8244
(LW × 0.9845)
3-4Lost by 15
@ Panthers
27 (-)Texans0.8212
(LW × 1.0366)
2-5Lost by 1
@ Chiefs
28 (↑2)Steelers0.7833
(LW × 1.0411)
2-4Won by 3
vs Ravens
29 (↑2)Giants0.7730
(LW × 1.0274)
1-6Won by 16
vs Vikings
30 (↓2)Buccaneers0.7594
(LW × 0.9778)
0-6Lost by 8
@ Falcons
31 (↓2)Vikings0.7384
(LW × 0.9532)
1-5Lost by 16
@ Giants
32 (-)Jaguars0.6996
(LW × 0.9794)
0-7Lost by 18
vs Chargers

Comments:

  • So, the Chiefs are the final unbeaten team in the league. They didn't look like that much Sunday, though. And I think their lack of offense will cost them when it comes to playoff time.

  • And with the Giants getting the win, that leaves the Bucs and Jags as the two final 0-fers. Barring a fluke upset, it could be a while before we see either of them get a win.

  • The Broncos' loss costs them some power, but the formerly #2 Chiefs can't capitalize because of their close home win against the very low ranked Texans.

  • Maybe it's just fan pessimism (and knoweldge of how many key guys are hurt right now), but I'm not sure the Packers belong in the top 5 right now. On the other hand, it looks like they've got a pretty easy schedule. They won't play a team in less trouble at least until Thanksgiving.

  • Wow, APR really likes the Cowboys. There's no way they belong in the top 10 right now. If the Eagles had been able to manage anything resembling an offense Sunday, that game would've been a lot closer.

  • I was thinking last week, maybe the Jaguars had bottomed out on power. The way APR is implemented, there's only so low a team can go before it gets a certain amount of power-by-association just for taking the field against another team. But this week, APR's bottom three teams all managed to lose power.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

NFL Week 7 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Texans @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.3667
Chiefs
δ=19.5
Chiefs
-6½
Chargers @
Jaguars
Chargers
ρ=1.2911
Chargers*
δ=16.8
Chargers
-7½
Ravens @
Steelers
Ravens
ρ=1.2478
Ravens*
δ=10.5
Steelers
-1
Browns @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2029
Packers
δ=7.4
Packers
-10½
Patriots @
Jets
Patriots
ρ=1.1989
Patriots*
δ=10.7
Patriots
-3½
Bills @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1364
Dolphins
δ=5.8
Dolphins
-8
Broncos @
Colts
Broncos
ρ=1.1214
Broncos*
δ=5.1
Broncos
-7
Seahawks @
Cardinals
Seahawks*
ρ=1.1209
Seahawks*
δ=11.0
Seahawks
-6½
Buccaneers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1102
Falcons
δ=5.2
Falcons
-7
Bears @
Redskins
Bears
ρ=1.0880
Bears*
δ=4.5
Redskins
-1
Bengals @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.0564
Lions
δ=1.2
Lions
-2½
Rams @
Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.0554
Panthers
δ=10.3
Panthers
-6
49ers @
Titans
49ers
ρ=1.0478
49ers*
δ=4.5
49ers
-4
Cowboys @
Eagles
Cowboys
ρ=1.0464
Cowboys*
δ=7.7
Eagles
-2½
Vikings @
Giants
Vikings
ρ=1.0297
Vikings*
δ=5.0
Giants
-3½

Bye: Saints, Raiders

Comments:

  • Why is the line taking the Steelers over the Ravens? Yeah, the Steelers played a little better last week, but it's gonna take more than that to beat the Ravens, even in Pittsburgh.

  • 10½ seems like a wide line for the Packers. They haven't been lighting up the scoreboard lately, and with Randall Cobb out and James Jones hurt, it doesn't seem like they're about ready to start breaking any scoring records.

  • The good news for the Packers is that they've been running the ball really well. In fact, as of this week, only the Eagles and Redskins have a better yards per attempt rushing. That, and some solid defensive efforts, have produced a couple low-scoring victories for them.

  • Cowboys or Eagles? Neither squad seems like a very good team. I think the Cowboys are probably at least marginally better, but not enough that it seems crazy for the Line to be taking the home standing Eagles. This definitely seems like one of those games that will go whichever way the turnovers bounce.

  • The Giants have turned the ball over a league-leading 23 times so far this season. The Vikings have gotten 12 turnovers from their opponents. Of course, the Vikings have lost 12 turnovers too. So if you like interceptions and lost fumbles, this could be the game for you. And now it's reportedly Josh Freeman starting for the Vikings this week. If the Giants blow this chance, I'll have to re-evaluate my thoughts on them going 0-16 this year.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

NFL Week 6 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 6 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bears (+8)
The Bears have a 1-point win over the (now) 1-4 Vikings, and a 6-point win over the 0-6 Giants. Not exactly the stuff of legend. They're 1-3 against teams that ESPN has in the top half of their rankings. Maybe APR has them underrated at #18, but they seem a little weak for the top 10, too.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than the Jets (+5) and Texans (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
APR has the Cardinals (-6) at #15 because they're 3-3. But Carson Palmer is really struggling. I think he would actually be okay in that system, if he could just stop throwing interceptions. But so far, he's thrown 11 interceptions (at least one in every game) and only 5 touchdowns. I have to wonder how close HC Bruce Arians is to benching him.

NFL Week 6 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-3)

Right:

Bengals @ Bills
Giants @ Bears
Raiders @ Chiefs
Jaguars @ Broncos
Titans @ Seahawks
Redskins @ Cowboys

Wrong:

Steelers @ Jets
Not much to say about this one, except the Steelers (probably) aren't as bad as their first 4 games, and (as I said a couple weeks ago) the Jets aren't as good as their record. For the first time all season, the Steelers got a couple of turnovers, and didn't turn the ball over themselves. It makes a difference.
Rams @ Texans
The Texans gained nearly twice as many yards than the Rams. But their drives ended in punts, fumbles, interceptions, a couple field goals, and one garbage time touchdown. The Rams only had 3 sustained drives, but they all ended in touchdowns. Add in a couple defensive touchdowns, and this was a shockingly easy win for them.
Colts @ Chargers
The Colts couldn't hardly buy a 3rd down conversion this game. They didn't have any in the first half, and only 2 in the second. The result was lots of stalled drives, and occasionally getting into field goal range. The Chargers weren't amazingly better, but they put a touchdown on the board, along with four field goals of their own, which was enough to put this one out of reach.

Split Picks: (APR 2-4, SRS 3-3, Line 4-2)

Lions (APR, Line) @ Browns (SRS)
I have to put this one on the Browns' defense. It's pretty tough to win when you give up 31 points. It's impossible when your offense is as bad as the Browns.
Panthers (SRS) @ Vikings (APR, Line)
The Vikings' defense at least kept this game within reach through halftime. But things fell apart in the 3rd quarter, and the Vikings' offense was never able to keep up.
Eagles (APR, Line) @ Buccaneers (SRS)
Mike Glennon is posting at least marginally better passing stats than Josh Freeman did the first three weeks, and the Buccaneers managed to score a season-high 20 points. Unfortunately, the defense also gave up a season-high 31 points, and there was no way for the offense to keep up.
Saints (APR, SRS) @ Patriots (Line)
Drew Brees did not have a good day passing (under a 50% completion rate, a pick, and only 236 yards passing). But the Saints' defense didn't help anything, giving up over 18 points for the first time this season, including the last-second game winning touchdown.
Cardinals (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, 49ers)
Largely thanks to a valiant effort by the Cardinals' defense, this game was close at the start of the fourth quarter. But the Cardinals' offense couldn't stay on the field, and only scored a couple field goals in the second half. It wasn't nearly enough.
Ravens (APR) @ Packers (SRS, Line)
In spite of playing without Clay Mattews, the Packers' defense (with the exception of a couple late drives) did an outstanding job of shutting down the Ravens' offense. It should also be noted, that for the second week in a row, Mason Crosby's field goals were another key factor in the win.

Totals

Another bad week for APR. At least it's over 0.500 this time.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 8- 7 42-3455.3%
SRS 9- 6 45-3159.2%
Line 10- 5 46-3060.5%

Monday, October 14, 2013

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Broncos1.1025
(LW × 0.9943)
6-0Won by 16
vs Jaguars
2 (↑1)Chiefs1.0826
(LW × 1.0560)
6-0Won by 17
vs Raiders
3 (↓2)Saints1.0553
(LW × 0.9377)
5-1Lost by 3
@ Patriots
4 (↑4)Packers1.0320
(LW × 1.0310)
3-2Won by 2
@ Ravens
5 (↑2)Seahawks1.0242
(LW × 1.0217)
5-1Won by 7
vs Titans
6 (↑4)Lions0.9980
(LW × 1.0234)
4-2Won by 14
@ Browns
7 (↓3)Colts0.9832
(LW × 0.9684)
4-2Lost by 10
@ Chargers
8 (↓3)Patriots0.9822
(LW × 0.9736)
5-1Won by 3
vs Saints
9 (↑5)49ers0.9540
(LW × 1.0360)
4-2Won by 12
vs Cardinals
10 (↑9)Cowboys0.9477
(LW × 1.0806)
3-3Won by 15
vs Redskins
11 (↓2)Dolphins0.9452
(LW × 0.9445)
3-2Bye
12 (-)Bengals0.9447
(LW × 0.9967)
4-2Won by 3
@ Bills
13 (↓7)Ravens0.9388
(LW × 0.9345)
3-3Lost by 2
vs Packers
14 (↑7)Chargers0.9223
(LW × 1.0643)
3-3Won by 10
vs Colts
15 (↓2)Cardinals0.9138
(LW × 0.9851)
3-3Lost by 12
@ 49ers
16 (↑1)Titans0.9105
(LW × 0.9932)
3-3Lost by 7
@ Seahawks
17 (↑5)Eagles0.9056
(LW × 1.0610)
3-3Won by 11
@ Buccaneers
18 (↓3)Bears0.8899
(LW × 0.9681)
4-2Won by 6
vs Giants
19 (↑8)Panthers0.8838
(LW × 1.0682)
2-3Won by 25
@ Vikings
20 (↓2)Falcons0.8622
(LW × 0.9684)
1-4Bye
21 (↓10)Browns0.8579
(LW × 0.9048)
3-3Lost by 14
vs Lions
22 (↑4)Raiders0.8454
(LW × 1.0071)
2-4Lost by 17
@ Chiefs
23 (↑6)Rams0.8374
(LW × 1.0904)
3-3Won by 25
@ Texans
24 (↓4)Bills0.8317
(LW × 0.9492)
2-4Lost by 3
vs Bengals
25 (↓9)Jets0.8192
(LW × 0.8930)
3-3Lost by 13
vs Steelers
26 (↑2)Redskins0.8179
(LW × 0.9975)
1-4Lost by 15
@ Cowboys
27 (↓4)Texans0.7921
(LW × 0.9345)
2-4Lost by 25
vs Rams
28 (↓4)Buccaneers0.7766
(LW × 0.9217)
0-5Lost by 11
vs Eagles
29 (↓4)Vikings0.7746
(LW × 0.9220)
1-4Lost by 25
vs Panthers
30 (-)Steelers0.7523
(LW × 1.0605)
1-4Won by 13
@ Jets
31 (-)Giants0.7523
(LW × 1.0775)
0-6Lost by 6
@ Bears
32 (-)Jaguars0.7144
(LW × 1.0596)
0-6Lost by 16
@ Broncos

Comments:

  • The Chiefs climb up to the #2 spot. I'm not sure I buy them as the second best team in the league, but there's not really a dominant team in the league right now (especially after the last two games the Broncos played), and there's a lot to be said for being 6-0.

  • And the 49ers climb into the top 10. Given the way their offense struggled against the Cardinals, I'm still not on them. They've got a couple tough road games coming up, at the Titans and at the Saints, that should show if this team really belongs in the top 10.

  • So I guess we can add the Texans to the list of teams that are way worse than they were last year. This is an amazing example of how fast and how hard a team can fall apart when they lose their confidence.

  • Are we going to have a team go 0-16 this year? The Giants came pretty close to winning their last two, so they should win one (and with the Vikings coming to town, maybe on Sunday).

    The Buccaneers have also came pretty close to winning a couple times, including two weeks ago against the Cardinals. They also play the Rams in week 16, which could be their best chance for a win.

    That leaves the Jaguars. They haven't finished closer than within 10 points of their opponent (and even then, thanks only to the Raiders giving up a garbage time touchdown). The Jaguars best hope for a win may be either their week 11 game against the Cardinals, or else hope the Colts don't have anything to play for in week 17, and decide to rest all their starters after the first quarter.

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

NFL Week 6 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Jaguars @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.6446
Broncos
δ=33.9
Broncos
-26½
Giants @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.3165
Bears
δ=17.8
Bears
-7½
Steelers @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.2931
Jets
δ=5.7
Jets
-2½
Raiders @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.2213
Chiefs
δ=8.5
Chiefs
-8½
Colts @
Chargers
Colts
ρ=1.1716
Colts*
δ=14.9
Colts
-1½
Saints @
Patriots
Saints
ρ=1.1156
Saints*
δ=9.3
Patriots
-1
Rams @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1038
Texans
δ=4.7
Texans
-7
Titans @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.0936
Seahawks
δ=9.4
Seahawks
-13½
Bengals @
Bills
Bengals*
ρ=1.0817
Bengals*
δ=4.1
Bengals
-7
Redskins @
Cowboys
Cowboys*
ρ=1.0695
Cowboys
δ=6.7
Cowboys
-5½
Lions @
Browns
Lions*
ρ=1.0286
Browns
δ=1.4
Lions
-2½
Panthers @
Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.0156
Panthers*
δ=4.9
Vikings
-2½
Eagles @
Buccaneers
Eagles
ρ=1.0130
Buccaneers
δ=1.7
Eagles
-1
Cardinals @
49ers
Cardinals*
ρ=1.0074
49ers
δ=5.9
49ers
-11
Packers @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0035
Packers*
δ=1.7
Packers
-2½

Bye: Falcons, Dolphins

Comments:

  • Pro Football Reference has A few games on record with a line of 21 points or more (although they don't have lines prior to about 1978 or so). None of the favored teams covered, although a couple came close.

  • This week may be the Steelers' best chance for a win all season. If they emerge from the Meadowlands with a loss, it'll be time to start wondering if they can make it to 4 wins, let alone 8.

  • I'm a little surprised the Patriots are favored this week, especially after how they struggled to score points against the Bengals. The Saints have been scoring points in bunches, and if this turns into a shoot out, I don't think the Patriots have the offense to keep up.

  • The Panthers are anther team facing one of the weakest opponents left on their schedule. At 1-3, their season is already slipping away, and any hope of getting things turned around has to start with beating the Vikings.

  • The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 games against the 49ers. Look for that trend to continue. I suspect Carson Palmer is going to be the second quarterback in a row to have a very tough day facing that defense,

  • Clay Matthews is out with a broken thumb, reportedly for at least a month. The rest of the Packers are going to have to step up if they don't want to be another team with a disappointing season.

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

NFL Week 5 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 5 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

49ers (+7)
The 49ers win over the Texans was impressive, but I think they need to do more to put those ugly losses to the Seahawks and Colts behind them before I'm willing to call them a top 10 team.
On the bubble:
The Texans (+6) might be able to pull out of their tailspin, but they don't have a lot of headroom anymore to get into the playoffs. And with the way the offense has been struggling, they may have trouble getting to 8 wins this year. At 2-3, with the prospect of a lot more losses to come, I don't see the justification to rank them in the top half of the league.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
I think ESPN's ranking of #30 for the Buccanneers (+6) is largely a reflection of the dysfunction evident within that organization. APR has them at #24, which seems pretty fair according to what they've actually done on the field.
APR has the Cardinals (+6) at #13, which is probably too high. Carson Palmer is at least somewhat of an upgrade over the quarterbacks they had last year, but that position remains very much the weak link for the Cardinals. Still, I guess wins and losses trump every other stat, and while the Cards are at 3-2, it's hard to justify ranking them too near some of the really bad teams in the league.

NFL Week 5 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (3-5)

I didn't notice it until I started working on this post: except for Jaguars @ Rams, unanimous picks were all for the road team this week. On a "not a coincidence" note, this is one of the worst weeks for unanimous picks in the history of fspi.

Right:

Broncos @ Cowboys
Saints @ Bears
Jaguars @ Rams

Wrong:

Bills @ Browns
The Browns' 37 points in this game makes it look like a breakdown of the Bills' defense. But the Bills gave up a couple touchdowns (a punt return and an interception return) while the defense was on the sideline. Beyond that, it didn't help any that Bills' quarterback E.J Manuel left in the 3rd quarter, and that backup Jeff Tuel looked every bit the part of an unexperienced rookie backup.
Seahawks @ Colts
The bad news for the Seahawks is that they gave up more points than they have in almost 2 years. Still, they were in this game well into the second half. But they settled for field goals too many times, and that opened the door for the Colts to take over the game in the fourth quarter.
Panthers @ Cardinals
The Cardinals' defense and special teams took over this game. The Panthers' 2nd half: punt, safety, interception, punt, fumble, interception. The Panthers only had 2 drives longer than 48 yards, and none longer than 21 yards in the 2nd half. The short fields the defense set up, along with a solid running game, were enough to get the Cardinals to another win.
Patriots @ Bengals
Another bad week passing for Tom Brady (I'm sure the torrential rain didn't help anything), and this time, the Patriots running game wasn't able to bail them out. You just don't win if you can't even score 7 points.
Chargers @ Raiders
I don't know what's wrong with the Chargers, but they sure didn't look ready to play this game. Insted, Terrelle Pryor had a very good day (18/23 for 221 yards and 2 TDs, as well as 31 yards rushing), which helped them sprint out to a 24-3 lead. The Chargers managed a 4th-quarter rally, but a late redzone interception by Phillip Rivers put an end to that.

Split Picks: (APR 2-4, SRS 3-3, Line 3-3)

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
The Giants were only down a point at the start of the 4th quarter. Facing a team playing a very inexperienced backup quarterback, that should've been a pretty good situation for them. But then Eli Manning started throwing interceptions. The first two gave the Eagles a couple of touchdowns on short fields, and the last one ended any real hopes the Giants might have had to get back into the game.
Ravens (SRS) @ Dolphins (APR, Line)
I predicted that Ryan Tannehill would struggle against the Ravens defense, and a 50% completion percentage, 6.8 yards per attempt passing, and 6(!) sacks bear that out. It's impressive that in spite of that, the Dolphins were still in this to the end, and had a chance to tie in the final seconds of regulation.
Chiefs (SRS, Line) @ Titans (APR)
This game is a good example of how the Chiefs have earned their 5-0 record: their solid defense (#1 by points allowed) held the Titans to a season-low 17 points. On offense, they have a solid running attack (120 yards in this game), and enough passing yards from Alex Smith to keep things going. Add in a special teams score, and it was easily enough to give the Chiefs a win over their toughest opponent so far this season.
Jets (APR) @ Falcons (SRS, Line)
Should the Falcons be added to the list of teams that are way worse than they were last year? Their defense certainly looked very bad in this game. Geno Smith threw for 199 yards and 3 touchdowns, and only threw incomplete 4 times.
The Falcons found themselves in the uncomfortable position of playing from behind for most of the game. And when their offense did finally establish a 1-point lead late in the 4th quarter, the Falcons' defense proved utterly unable to stop the Jets from driving down the field, and kick the winning field goal as time expired.
Texans (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
Matt Schaub had an ugly, ugly game. 3 interceptions, a completion rate barely over 50%, and under 5 yards per passing attempt added up to a long, futile game for the Texans' offense. The 49ers offense featured 177 rushing yards, which was enough to give them a pretty convincing win.
Lions (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)
Calvin Johnson didn't play in this game, and Matt Stafford just isn't the same quarterback when he's not available. The Packers played solid defense, ran the ball well, and didn't make any of the mistakes that cost them a win a couple weeks ago. The result was a long, and ultimately futile day for the Lions.

Totals

Another ugly week of picks. And only the Jets' improbable upset on MNF saves APR from a 4-10 week.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 5- 9 34-2755.7%
SRS 6- 8 36-2560.5%
Line 6- 8 36-2560.5%

Monday, October 7, 2013

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Saints1.1255
(LW × 1.0056)
5-0Won by 8
@ Bears
2 (↓1)Broncos1.1088
(LW × 0.9887)
5-0Won by 3
@ Cowboys
3 (↑5)Chiefs1.0252
(LW × 1.0253)
5-0Won by 9
@ Titans
4 (↑6)Colts1.0153
(LW × 1.0430)
4-1Won by 6
vs Seahawks
5 (↓2)Patriots1.0088
(LW × 0.9051)
4-1Lost by 7
@ Bengals
6 (↑1)Ravens1.0045
(LW × 1.0008)
3-2Won by 3
@ Dolphins
7 (↓3)Seahawks1.0025
(LW × 0.9531)
4-1Lost by 6
@ Colts
8 (↑12)Packers1.0010
(LW × 1.1411)
2-2Won by 13
vs Lions
9 (↓4)Dolphins1.0008
(LW × 0.9740)
3-2Lost by 3
vs Ravens
10 (↓1)Lions0.9752
(LW × 0.9961)
3-2Lost by 13
@ Packers
11 (↑7)Browns0.9481
(LW × 1.0457)
3-2Won by 13
vs Bills
12 (↑11)Bengals0.9479
(LW × 1.1082)
3-2Won by 7
vs Patriots
13 (↑6)Cardinals0.9277
(LW × 1.0501)
3-2Won by 16
vs Panthers
14 (↑10)49ers0.9209
(LW × 1.1032)
3-2Won by 31
vs Texans
15 (↑2)Bears0.9192
(LW × 1.0056)
3-2Lost by 8
vs Saints
16 (↓4)Jets0.9174
(LW × 0.9615)
3-2Won by 2
@ Falcons
17 (↓11)Titans0.9167
(LW × 0.9045)
3-2Lost by 9
vs Chiefs
18 (↓3)Falcons0.8903
(LW × 0.9529)
1-4Lost by 2
vs Jets
19 (↑2)Cowboys0.8770
(LW × 1.0031)
2-3Lost by 3
vs Broncos
20 (↓9)Bills0.8763
(LW × 0.9183)
2-3Lost by 13
@ Browns
21 (↓8)Chargers0.8666
(LW × 0.9138)
2-3Lost by 10
@ Raiders
22 (↑4)Eagles0.8536
(LW × 1.0402)
2-3Won by 15
@ Giants
23 (↓9)Texans0.8476
(LW × 0.8955)
2-3Lost by 31
@ 49ers
24 (↓2)Buccaneers0.8426
(LW × 0.9807)
0-4Bye
25 (-)Vikings0.8402
(LW × 1.0101)
1-3Bye
26 (↑1)Raiders0.8394
(LW × 1.0735)
2-3Won by 10
vs Chargers
27 (↓11)Panthers0.8273
(LW × 0.8855)
1-3Lost by 16
@ Cardinals
28 (-)Redskins0.8199
(LW × 1.0575)
1-3Bye
29 (↑1)Rams0.7679
(LW × 1.0579)
2-3Won by 14
vs Jaguars
30 (↑1)Steelers0.7094
(LW × 1.0038)
0-4Bye
31 (↓2)Giants0.6982
(LW × 0.9289)
0-5Lost by 15
vs Eagles
32 (-)Jaguars0.6742
(LW × 0.9881)
0-5Lost by 14
@ Rams

Comments:

  • Last Summer, I predicted the Colts would struggle this season. Instead, Andrew Luck's completion rate, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate have all gone up, and his interception rate has gone down. He's just generally playing much better, and that's a big part of the reason the Colts are 4-1 right now.

  • Meanwhile, the Jaguars are already halfway to a third straight season of double-digit losses and the Texans are in a tailspin. The Colts only competition for the AFC South may be the Titans...

  • And speaking of predictions, I am once again reminded that I really shouldn't say anything about point spreads. On the other hand, who thought that the Patriots would only score 6 points, or the Broncos would give up 48?

  • And speaking of the Cowboys 48 points, I don't know how anyone can blame Romo for that loss. He had an absolute career day, passing for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns, and basically had one bad pass. Here's a rule of thumb Cowboy fans may want to take into consideration: when you score 48 points, only have one turnover, and still lose, it's not the fault of your offense.

  • When I said that the winner of Bills @ Browns could emerge with some momentum for the rest of the season, I was assuming they'd emerge with their preferred quarterback unhurt. To be fair, Brandon Weeden was at least servicable in relief of the injured Brian Hoyer, and will certainly have his chance to re-prove he's worthy of the starting position.

  • I've been touting the Seahawks as a likely candidate for the top seed in the NFC playoffs, but the way the Saints have been playing lately, they have to be in the discussion too. The way that defensive squad has turned around, from historically bad to very good, is really quite extraordinary.

  • And speaking of impressive turnarounds, in every game they've played so far this season, the Giants have given up at least 31 points and turned the ball over at least 3 times. Eli Manning already has 12 interceptions, just 3 short of the 15 he had all last season, and already almost half way to the career high 25 he had in 2010. For a team that hasn't had a losing season since 2003, and won the Super Bowl a couple seasons ago, it's a shocking breakdown.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

NFL Week 5 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Patriots @
Bengals
Patriots
ρ=1.3031
Patriots*
δ=12.3
Patriots
-1
Broncos @
Cowboys
Broncos
ρ=1.2828
Broncos*
δ=18.5
Broncos
-7½
Saints @
Bears
Saints
ρ=1.2245
Saints*
δ=13.8
Saints
-1
Chargers @
Raiders
Chargers
ρ=1.2128
Chargers*
δ=8.0
Chargers
-4
Texans @
49ers
Texans
ρ=1.1339
Texans*
δ=6.8
49ers
-7
Lions @
Packers
Lions*
ρ=1.1161
Lions*
δ=1.9
Packers
-7
Eagles @
Giants
Eagles
ρ=1.0918
Eagles*
δ=6.6
Giants
-1
Seahawks @
Colts
Seahawks
ρ=1.0806
Seahawks*
δ=6.4
Seahawks
-1
Jaguars @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.0639
Rams
δ=3.3
Rams
-11
Panthers @
Cardinals
Panthers*
ρ=1.0576
Panthers*
δ=20.4
Panthers
-1½
Bills @
Browns
Bills*
ρ=1.0524
Bills*
δ=6.4
Bills
-4
Ravens @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.0236
Ravens*
δ=3.2
Dolphins
-3
Jets @
Falcons
Jets
ρ=1.0212
Falcons
δ=0.8
Falcons
-9½
Chiefs @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.0137
Chiefs*
δ=1.0
Chiefs
-2½

Bye: Steelers, Buccaneers, Vikings, Redskins

Comments:

  • The Line is favoring the Bengals over the Patriots? ...Wow. I will definitely double check that on Saturday. The Pats may be struggling right now, but I just haven't been that impressed with the Bengals so far this season.

    Update: well, it's Saturday night, and it looks like the Line is now saying Pats -1. I don't want to make a precedent of this, but at least for this case, I'm going to switch the Line's official pick (because I think even without Gronk, and even without Vince Wilfork, this is a game the Pats should be favored to win).

  • I'm a little surprised the Broncos are only getting 7½ over the Cowboys. Given Dallas's bad defense, and the Broncos ability to score points, I would think the Broncos will cover that easily.

  • Texans @ 49ers is an interesting matchup of two teams both underperforming from last year. The winner might be able to use this as a springboard to turn around their season. The loser could be looking at a long, ugly slog to week 17 and the offseason.

  • And speaking of underperforming teams, it's gonna be real ugly in Green Bay if the Packers lose to the resurgent Lions this Sunday.

  • I'm not sure how good the Colts are right now, but I think they're better than the Texans. If the Seahawks can come away this week with another road win, it's gonna be another big step for them towards the NFC's top seed.

  • How bad are the Jaguars? The Rams haven't been favored by double digits since 2004. Still, while the Jaguars may be really bad, I wouldn't put it past the Rams to screw up this golden opportunity for a win, either.

  • Bills @ Browns is another interesting matchup, this time between a couple teams that look at least a little better than expected. Again, the winner of this game should come away with some nice momentum for the rest of the season.

  • I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Dolphins over the Ravens. The Ravens defense may not be what it once was, but it's still decent, and I think Ryan Tannehill could be in for another tough game on Sunday.

  • I'm also surprised the line is giving 9½ points to the Falcons this week. They didn't win by that much over the Rams, and I think (last week's result against the Titans not withstanding), the Jets still have a respectable defense.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

NFL Week 4 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 4 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

49ers (+16)
APR is very much a what-have-you-done-lately system. And lately, the 49ers have a couple blow-out losses, and a couple wins over (so far) not very impressive teams. They're gonna have to do better than a win over the Rams to get to the top half of APR's rankings.
Bengals (+12)
Maybe APR has the Bengals underrated at #23, but their two wins (home, over the very bad Steelers and the struggling Packers) aren't that impressive.
Packers (+8)
So far, the Packers have one win, a blow-out of the struggling 1-3 Redskins. Next Sunday's game against the Lions should help resolve this APR/ESPN conflict, one way or the other.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Bills (-12)
Thanks to their defense, the Bills have clawed their way to a 2-2 record (and could be 3-1 or even 4-0 if they had played a bit better in their two losses). I'm not sold on how good they are yet, but they're not a bottom 10 team.
Jets (-10)
The Jets are 2-2 as well, but it feels a lot more flukey for them. Take away a late penalty in week 1, and an offensive meltdown by the Bills, and they could easily be 0-4. We'll see how the season plays out, but based on what I've seen so far, I'll be surprised if the Jets finish in front of the Bills in the AFC East.
Buccaneers (-9)
Well, the good news for the Bucs is that in 3 of their 4 games, they've been in them right to the end. The bad news is they've lost because of sloppy, undisciplined play. The worse news is their offense is a mess, and they've switched to a rookie quarterback that, based on Sunday's performance, really isn't ready to be a starter. APR has them ranked at #22, but even at that low level, there's a good case that they're overrated.

NFL Week 4 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-2)

Right:

Colts @ Jaguars
Seahawks @ Texans
Giants @ Chiefs
Eagles @ Broncos

Wrong:

Cardinals @ Buccaneers
This was not a good game by either offense. The Cardinals had one drive longer than 42 yards, the Bucs had one drive longer than 41 yards. Three turnovers gave the Cardinals 3 short fields and 13 points. That's all they needed to win in this game.
Cowboys @ Chargers
The Cowboys scored 21 points in the second quarter. The problem was, they scored 0 points in the first, third, and fourth quarters. The Cowboys don't have a very good offense, and the Chargers did a good job of exploiting that, especially in the second half, where the Cowboys only had the ball 4 times.

Split Picks: (APR 3-6, SRS 6-3, Line 4-5)

Redskins (Line) @ Raiders (APR, SRS)
Matt Flynn had a terrible game. Along with a pick 6 and a lost fumble, he only lead the Raiders on two drives longer than 36 yards. RG3 still didn't look that great, but with a solid effort from Alfred Morris and Roy Helu running the ball, it was enough to win this game.
Jets (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)
I'm still not totally sold on the Titans as a good defensive team, but they sure made Geno Smith look like a very green rookie in this game, with 2 interceptions, 2 lost fumbles, 5 sacks, and averaging just 6.1 yards per pass attempt.
Steelers (Line) "@" Vikings (APR, SRS) (London)
Adrian Peterson ran for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns on the Steelers defense. Also, Matt Cassel is a better quarterback than Christian Ponder.
49ers (SRS, Line) @ Rams(APR)
The good news is their defense found an offense they could stop (the Rams had 188 yards on offense), and a defense they could run the ball on (the 49ers had 219 yards rushing). Unlike the Colts last week, the Rams weren't able to keep up with the 49ers offense, or even really keep the game close.
Ravens (APR, Line) @ Bills (SRS)
The Bills' defense intercepted Joe Flacco 5 times, and the Bills' running backs rushed for 203 yards. That's a recipe for winning, even with a struggling rookie quarterback.
Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
Last year, the Falcons played a lot of games where they didn't score much in the second half. That trend has continued this year, except now, it's costing them games. (Even the Rams came close to tying them at the end of that game.)
Bengals (Line) @ Browns (APR, SRS)
Remember how I said the Browns could win some games if they could ever get going on offense? It looks like Brian Hoyer might be the spark they were looking for: 269 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, along with a solid defensive effort gave the Browns their second win of the season.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)
The Bears have faced a couple of pretty bad teams, so they may not be quite as good as their (now) 3-1 record. And the Lions, especially when Reggie Bush is on the field and productive, are much better than they were last year.
Dolphins (APR, Line) @ Saints (SRS)
So the Dophins defense falls back to Earth. Not too surprising, considering that the Saints offense has been really good, even last year when Sean Payton was away.

Totals

Somehow SRS comes out smelling like roses this week.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 7- 8 29-1861.7%
SRS 10- 5 30-1763.8%
Line 8- 7 30-1763.8%