Tuesday, July 16, 2013

NFL Pythagorean Projection 2012 -> 2013

The start of preseason is only a couple weeks away now, so it's time for this year's edition of Pythagorean Projection!

TeamProjected WinsNote
Chiefs 2.6new HC, QB
Jaguars 3.4new HC
Eagles 4.0new HC
Raiders 4.3new QB
Cardinals 4.8New HC, QB
Titans 4.8make or break for Jake Locker
Jets 5.4new QB?
Bills 5.8New HC, QB
Browns 6.2New HC
Lions 6.5Some coaching changes
Rams 6.6
Dolphins 7.1
Colts 7.2"New" HC
Cowboys 7.4new DC
Panthers 7.8
Buccaneers 7.9
Chargers 8.0New HC
Saints 8.1S. Payton back
Steelers 8.6Can Roethlisberger stay healthy?
Vikings 8.8Can AP repeat?
Redskins 9.1RG3 coming back from injury
Ravens 9.4Free agent exodus
Bengals 9.9
Giants 10.0
Texans 10.1
Packers 10.3
Bears 10.8New HC
Falcons 11.0
49ers 11.3
Broncos 12.3
Seahawks 12.4
Patriots 12.4


  • It's not going out on much of a limb to predict that the Chiefs will do better than 2 wins, but Andy Reid is the probably best head coach they've had at least since Dick Vermeil.

  • I have to wonder how Chip Kelly will do in the NFL. The Pac-12 isn't exactly known for their defenses, and even the best college defense is not at the same level as the NFL. I'll believe his offensive schemes can work at the pro level when I see it happening.

  • As mentioned previously, the Colts stats in 2012 were really not impressive, and that's reflected in their 7.2 win projection here. With Bruce Arians gone, and the whole emotional push of Chuck Pagano's situation pretty much over, the Colts could be in for a major let-down this year.

  • The Ravens lost a lot of key talent after their Super Bowl victory. They didn't exactly power their way into the playoffs last year, and it won't take much of a slide for them to miss the playoffs entirely in 2013.

  • The Seahawks enjoy perhaps the strongest home-field advantage of any team in the NFL right now. The bad news is that seems to cover some serious problems that manifested in their rather dismal 3-5 road record last year. They've got a pretty stout road schedule in 2013, and they can't afford to let any easy ones slip away if they're to make it to 12 wins overall.

  • The Patriots have won double-digit games 11 of the last 12 seasons, made the playoffs 10 of those seasons, including 5 trips to the Super Bowl (and, of course, 3 wins). That's really an extraordinary success for the free-agent, salary cap era. However you feel about them, Belichick and Brady have to go down as one of the best HC/QB teams in the history of the game, and both will be easy first ballot hall-of-famers when the time comes.