Tuesday, September 25, 2012

NFL Week 4 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Titans @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.8668
Texans
δ=39.6
Texans
-12½
Saints @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.6927
Packers
δ=29.4
Packers
-7½
Panthers @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.6694
Falcons
δ=33.1
Falcons
-7½
Seahawks @
Rams
Seahawks
ρ=1.5696
Seahawks*
δ=28.6
Seahawks
-1
Browns @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.4176
Ravens
δ=20.7
Ravens
-13
Vikings @
Lions
Vikings
ρ=1.2684
Vikings*
δ=14.5
Lions
-4½
Raiders @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.2600
Broncos
δ=15.5
Broncos
-6½
Dolphins @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.2464
Cardinals
δ=7.7
Cardinals
-6½
Chargers @
Chiefs
Chargers
ρ=1.2048
Chargers*
δ=13.7
Chargers
-1
Patriots @
Bills
Patriots
ρ=1.1701
Patriots*
δ=12.8
Patriots
-4
Redskins @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.1474
Buccaneers
δ=9.9
Buccaneers
-2½
Giants @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.0821
Giants*
δ=4.4
Eagles
-1
Bengals @
Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.0706
Jaguars
δ=12.5
Bengals
-2
Bears @
Cowboys
Bears*
ρ=1.0036
Bears*
δ=2.9
Cowboys
-4
49ers @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.0034
Jets
δ=4.7
49ers
-4½

Bye: Steelers, Colts

Comments:

  • Do the Texans have the AFC South won already? If the first three games are any indication, it may take the Jaguars, Colts and Titans combined to match the Texans' win total.

  • The Falcons are another team that seem to be well on their way to clinching their division. They've already got a 2-game lead in their division, and it might be November before they play another team with a winning record.

  • Given what happened Monday night, and given how bad the Saints defense has been, this has to be the week the Packers' offense finally has a good game, if it's ever going to happen this season.

  • Can the Vikings beat the Lions this week? If the Lions allows 44 points again, they can.

  • I think I like the APR/SRS pick of the Bears over the Cowboys this week. The Cowboys have turned the ball over 6 times so far, and that's the kind of thing the Bears thrive on.

  • SRS makes an intriguing rogue pick of the Giants over the Eagles. I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Eagles too, especially given how convincingly the Eagles got beat down by the Cardinals last Sunday.

  • I'd be a lot more inclined to consider the Jets over the 49ers if Darrelle Revis wasn't done for the season. Still, it's not like the Vikings have a shut-down corner anything like Revis, and they got the job done...

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-5)

Right:

Giants @ Panthers
Texans @ Broncos
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
Patriots @ Ravens

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Saints
The Saints' defense continues to be the worst in the league, allowing on average 477 yards per game. They've actually been getting worse every week. And while the Saints' offense has been putting up points, it hasn't been at the same rate as last year, and it hasn't been nearly enough.
Bengals @ Redskins
The Redskins' defense is 3rd-worst in the league in terms of yards allowed, 4th-worst in terms of points allowed. RG3 didn't have a great game, but it makes it really hard for any quarterback to come away with a win when his defense allows 38 points.
Lions @ Titans
The Lions' defense allowed Jake Locker to have a career day: 378 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 0 sacks, and 6 drives that ended in a score.
49ers @ Vikings
Somehow the Vikings' defense managed to make Alex Smith look like his old (bad) self. Smith had the fewest completions, fewest passing yards, fewest touchdowns, and most interceptions of the season.
Steelers @ Raiders
In the first half, the Steelers' defense did a pretty good job stopping the Raiders. But because of a lack of offensive production, they only lead by 3 at half time. In the second half, the Steeler's defense just came apart: the Raiders scored every time they had the ball. The Raiders only outscored the Steelers by 6 points in the second half, but because the game was so close at halftime, that's all they needed to win.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-3, SRS: 5-2, Line: 3-4)

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
The Chargers first half on offense: punt, punt, fumble, interception. Their second half: field goal, interception, punt, punt, fumble, end of game. Nobody wins games like that.
Jets (Line) @ Dolphins (APR, SRS)
A close game that went to overtime, so there's a lot of things that could've made the difference here. I'm going to go with Ryan Tannehill's pasing numbers: 16/36 196 yards and 1 interception. The Dolphins will need better performances from Tannehill to win many games this year.
Bills (Line) @ Browns (APR, SRS)
Brandon Weeden had another bad day passing (27/43 237, 1 td and 2 interceptions). And the Browns only had 33 rushing yards. Somehow the Browns were in this game anyway, until the Bills finally put it away with a 4th-quarter touchdown.
Jaguars (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
Another close game that really could've went either way. Some key stats: Andrew Luck threw more incompletions (24) than Blaine Gabbert threw passes (21). Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown. And somehow the Colts' defense let Gabbert throw an 80-yard touchdown pass that put the Jaguars ahead to stay.
Packers (Line) @ Seahawks (APR, SRS)
Apart from the officiating, what did I think of the game? 1) There is absolutely no excuse for 8 first-half sacks. 2) Did McCarthy somehow forget about Cedric Benson for the first half? I was calling for more running almost from the start. 3) What should the defense do on a Hail Mary? Knock it down! Going for the interception there was just stupid.
Eagles (Line) @ Cardinals (APR, SRS)
The Cardinals' defense just shut the Eagles down in this game. The Eagles only had 2 drives longer than 45 yards (one of which ended with a fumble, returned the length of the field for a touchdown). And Kevin Kolb managed probably his best game as a Cardinal, taking advantages of the short fields the defense produced, and keeping the Eagles offense off the field.
Rams (APR) @ Bears (SRS, Line)
The Rams' defense might be OK, but their offense is terrible. 6 sacks, 17 incomplete passes, including 2 interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), and just one drive longer than 39 yards. Even with the best defense in the league, that won't win many games.

Totals

Not a great week for anybody. This is the second time since I started fspi that the Line had a result under 0.500. (Here's the first.)

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 8-8 14-1843.8%
SRS 9-7 14-1843.8%
Line 7-9 17-1553.1%

Monday, September 24, 2012

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Update: oops... I just noticed I entered the wrong score for the Colts, which inadvertently gave them a win. Updated power rankings below. (Is there some way I can blame this on the replacement refs?)

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑2)Texans1.3116
(LW × 1.0968)
3-0Won by 6
@ Broncos
2 (↑2)Cardinals1.2249
(LW × 1.0617)
3-0Won by 21
vs Eagles
3 (↓1)Seahawks1.1667
(LW × 0.9313)
2-1Won by 2
vs Packers
4 (↑3)Falcons1.1405
(LW × 1.0824)
3-0Won by 24
@ Chargers
5 (↑3)Broncos1.1231
(LW × 1.0801)
1-2Lost by 6
vs Texans
6 (↑3)Ravens1.0388
(LW × 1.0015)
2-1Won by 1
vs Patriots
7 (↑8)Patriots1.0238
(LW × 1.0615)
1-2Lost by 1
@ Ravens
8 (↓2)Steelers1.0222
(LW × 0.9614)
1-2Lost by 3
@ Raiders
9 (↑12)Jets0.9939
(LW × 1.2271)
2-1Won by 3
@ Dolphins
10 (↓9)49ers0.9906
(LW × 0.7290)
2-1Lost by 11
@ Vikings
11 (↑1)Packers0.9860
(LW × 0.9676)
1-2Lost by 2
@ Seahawks
12 (↑5)Dolphins0.9828
(LW × 1.0523)
1-2Lost by 3
vs Jets
13 (↑9)Vikings0.9765
(LW × 1.2072)
2-1Won by 11
vs 49ers
14 (↓3)Eagles0.9688
(LW × 0.9372)
2-1Lost by 21
@ Cardinals
15 (↓2)Bears0.9628
(LW × 0.9845)
2-1Won by 17
vs Rams
16 (↓2)Cowboys0.9593
(LW × 0.9901)
2-1Won by 6
vs Buccaneers
17 (↑11)Jaguars0.9226
(LW × 1.2474)
1-2Won by 5
@ Colts
18 (↑1)Giants0.8953
(LW × 1.0394)
2-1Won by 29
@ Panthers
19 (↑7)Raiders0.8913
(LW × 1.1756)
2-1Won by 3
vs Steelers
20 (↑7)Bills0.8750
(LW × 1.1767)
2-1Won by 10
@ Browns
21 (↓3)Bengals0.8618
(LW × 0.9989)
2-1Won by 7
@ Redskins
22 (↑7)Colts0.8378
(LW × 1.1470)
1-2Lost by 5
vs Jaguars
23 (↑1)Chargers0.8339
(LW × 1.0724)
1-2Lost by 24
vs Falcons
24 (↑1)Buccaneers0.8119
(LW × 1.0605)
1-2Lost by 6
@ Cowboys
25 (↓20)Lions0.7699
(LW × 0.7014)
1-2Lost by 3
@ Titans
26 (↓16)Rams0.7433
(LW × 0.7184)
1-2Lost by 17
@ Bears
27 (↓4)Browns0.7328
(LW × 0.9274)
0-3Lost by 10
vs Bills
28 (↓12)Redskins0.7076
(LW × 0.7357)
1-2Lost by 7
vs Bengals
29 (↑2)Titans0.7026
(LW × 1.2141)
1-2Won by 3
vs Lions
30 (↑2)Chiefs0.6922
(LW × 1.1984)
1-2Won by 3
@ Saints
31 (↓11)Panthers0.6832
(LW × 0.8410)
1-2Lost by 29
vs Giants
32 (↓2)Saints0.5825
(LW × 0.8417)
0-3Lost by 3
vs Chiefs

Comments:

What an awful week for officiating.

  • The replacement referees somehow gave the 49ers an extra timeout and two challenges they should not have had. Somehow that didn't cost the Vikings the game.

  • And then on Monday night, a very marginal roughing the passer cost the Packers an interception. Another call of defensive pass interference that really should've been on the offense kept the same drive going, and then on the final play, a really explicit case of offensive pass interference was missed, and the pass was somehow called a touchdown instead of an interception.

  • This situation with the replacement referees is an embarrassment to the league, and it needs to be resolved now.

  • I'll have more to say tomorrow about football-related events not involving officiating.

  • Update: The NFL doubles-down on a bad decision.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

1992 + 20

20 years ago this month, the Packers were 24 years removed from the glory years of the 1960s. In that interregnum, they posted just 5 winning seasons, and two playoff appearances. Their one playoff win came in the strike-shortened season of 1982.

In 1991, the Packers hired Ron Wolf to be their general manager. Wolf made some sweeping changes: he brought in Mike Holmgren to be head coach, traded for quarterback Brett Favre, and brought in some big-name free agents like Reggie White, Santana Dotson, and Sean Jones.

Those changes had an immediate impact. In 1992 and 1993, the Packers posted back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since the end of the Lombardi era. Every year, they had more success, returning to the playoffs, winning their division, and culminating in 1996 with a victory in Super Bowl XXXI.

The Packers returned to the Super Bowl in the 1997 season, but the loss in that game was a portent of a team already in decline. In 1998, the Packers lost a home game for the first time since week 1 of the 1995 season. As a wildcard in the playoffs, they were 1-and-done for the first time since the start of the Holmgren era.

After the 1998 season, Mike Holmgren left to be Head Coach and General Manager of the Seattle Seahawks. Reggie White had played his last game as a Packer, and many of the other players that made up the 1996 championship team were either retired or gone in free agency by the start of the 1999 season. Following the 2000 season, GM Ron Wolf retired as well.

Comparisons between the Lombardi and Holmgren eras are inevitable. In terms of championships won, there can be no question that Vince Lombardi was far more successful. But along with a victory in Super Bowl XXXI, Mike Holmgren has some successes that Vince Lombardi never accomplished:

  • Holmgren had a number of assistant coaches (Jon Gruden, Dick Jauron, Steve Marriucci, Jim Mora, Marty Mornhinweg, Andy Reid, Ray Rhodes, Mike Sherman, and Jim Zorn) that went on to be head coaches in their own right, to varying degrees of success.

  • Perhaps more important, the Packers didn't plunge back into mediocrity after Holmgren left. In the 13 seasons played since he left, the Packers have had just two losing seasons. They've made it to the playoffs 8 times, and won Super Bowl XLV.

There are very few teams in the league that can match the level of winning seasons, playoff appearances, and Super Bowl victories the Packers have enjoyed in the last 20 years. In spite of the sweeping changes in players, coaches, and managers, the Packer era that began in 1992 continues to this day.

NFL Week 3 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Lions @
Titans
Lions
ρ=1.8966
Lions*
δ=34.4
Lions
-3
49ers @
Vikings
49ers
ρ=1.6797
49ers*
δ=25.1
49ers
-7½
Steelers @
Raiders
Steelers
ρ=1.4024
Steelers*
δ=19.1
Steelers
-4½
Falcons @
Chargers
Falcons
ρ=1.3551
Falcons*
δ=10.0
Chargers
-3
Buccaneers @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.2656
Cowboys
δ=3.8
Cowboys
-7
Packers @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.2292
Seahawks
δ=2.2
Packers
-3
Chiefs @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.1983
Saints
δ=4.6
Saints
-8½
Jets @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1530
Dolphins
δ=10.1
Jets
-3
Texans @
Broncos
Texans*
ρ=1.1501
Texans*
δ=13.4
Texans
-1½
Eagles @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.1161
Cardinals
δ=6.1
Eagles
-4
Bengals @
Redskins
Redskins
ρ=1.1148
Redskins
δ=8.2
Redskins
-3½
Patriots @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0755
Ravens
δ=9.5
Ravens
-2½
Bills @
Browns
Browns
ρ=1.0626
Browns
δ=3.5
Bills
-3
Giants @
Panthers
Giants
ρ=1.0603
Giants
δ=5.7
Giants
-1½
Rams @
Bears
Rams
ρ=1.0581
Bears
δ=5.6
Bears
-8
Jaguars @
Colts
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0127
Jaguars*
δ=6.3
Colts
-3

Comments:

  • I guess the 49ers are only getting 7½ points because they're plaing on the road? The Vikings look to be well on their way to another early first round pick this year. Unless the 49ers stumble badly, this should be an easy win for them.

  • And the Lions are only getting 3 points over the Titans?! As I observed in the power rankings, only the Saints and Chiefs have given up more points than the Titans this year. The Titans' run defense looks particularly suspect; it could be a very good Sunday for Kevin Smith.

  • Winning at Seattle has been a challenge, even in the seasons when the Seahawks have struggled. The Packers' defense is going to have to have another dominating, wire-to-wire game to give them a chance to win. If the Seahawks manage to establish a 2-score lead, this game is probably over.

  • Losers of Chiefs @ Saints and Jaguars @ Colts should be excellent candidates to secure a top 5 draft pick next April.

  • I like APR's pick of the Cardinals this week. Especially playing at home, I think they can shut down the Eagles' offense. It's just a question of whether Kevin Kolb and the offense can put up enough points to put this one away.

  • We should get some idea this week of how good the Rams defense is. Jay Cutler could be in for another long day.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

NFL Week 2 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

The Texans and Cardinals are the only road teams to win this week.

Unanimous Picks (3-5)

Right:

Texans @ Jaguars
Titans @ Chargers
Lions @ 49ers

Wrong:

Cardinals @ Patriots
Once again, the Cardinals' special teams (blocked punt) and defense (1 interception and 4 sacks) carried the day. The Patriots offense was held out of the endzone for almost the whole game, and only had one drive longer than 47 yards.
Redskins @ Rams
Has Jeff Fisher already made a difference for the Rams? They came very close to beating the Lions in week 1, and brought everyones' favorite rookie down to Earth in week 2.
Vikings @ Colts
The Vikings are going to need a lot more than 60 yards out of Adrian Peterson to be much of a threat to anybody.
Raiders @ Dolphins
Carson Palmer: 50% completion rate, 1 interception. Reggie Bush: 172 yards rushing, 2 touchdowns. How did the Chargers only get 32 yards rushing against this same Raiders defense?
Cowboys @ Seahawks
The good news for the Cowboys is they didn't lose this game because of late mistakes by Tony Romo. The bad news is this game was off the rails for the Cowboys right from the start. Their first three drives ended with a lost fumble, a blocked punt, and an interception. The Cowboys didn't turn it over after that, but couldn't move the ball at all, either.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-5, SRS: 2-6, Line: 7-1)

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)
Jay Cutler was sacked 7(!) times and threw 4 interceptions. I thought the Bears would have a chance to challenge for the NFC North, but not with that o-line, they won't. In related news, the Colts' defense isn't very good without Dwight Freeney
Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
It's not much of a shock that the Giants managed to beat the Buccaneers at home. It is a shock that they needed 500 yards passing and 25 4th-quarter points to get it done. On a related note, the resurgence of the Buccaneers' defense appears to be greatly exagerated.
Saints (Line) @ Panthers (APR, SRS)
The Saints are just in a tail-spin. Their offense has regressed from last year, and their defense is worst in the league. They're just not going to win many games at all when that defense is giving up 35 or more points every week.
Jets (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
So, it turns out that the Jets can't score 48 points when they're facing a real defense. And (unsrurpsingly), their defense struggled without Darrelle Revis,
Browns (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)
The good news for Browns' QB Brandon Weeden is he had a much better outing this week (26/37, 322 yards, 2 tds and 0 ints). The bad news is Andy Dalton had a better week. The Browns just aren't good enough to win when their defense gives up 34 points.
Chiefs (SRS) @ Bills (APR, Line)
The Chiefs offense is stil awful. They only had one drive longer than 46 yards before garbage time. And through 2 games, they've given up more points (75) than any other team in the league except the Saints.
Broncos (APR) @ Falcons (SRS, Line)
So I guess this was Manning being bad Manning: 3 interceptions and a lost fumble in the first quarter. The good news was the Falcons were only able to leverage that into 13 points. The bad news was, the Falcons were able to add a couple touchdowns, and the Broncos come back just ran out of time.
Ravens (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)
A surprisingly close game, especially considering the Eagles had 4 more turnovers in this game. But the Ravens had a couple turnovers of their own, and settled too many times for field goals.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 6-10 6-1037.5%
SRS 5-11 5-1131.3%
Line 10-6 10-662.5%

Monday, September 17, 2012

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)49ers1.3588
(LW × 1.1869)
2-0Won by 8
vs Lions
2 (↑15)Seahawks1.2527
(LW × 1.2924)
1-1Won by 20
vs Cowboys
3 (↑5)Texans1.1959
(LW × 1.1100)
2-0Won by 20
@ Jaguars
4 (↑7)Cardinals1.1538
(LW × 1.0713)
2-0Won by 2
@ Patriots
5 (↑6)Lions1.0976
(LW × 1.0191)
1-1Lost by 8
@ 49ers
6 (↑16)Steelers1.0633
(LW × 1.2993)
1-1Won by 17
vs Jets
7 (↓2)Falcons1.0537
(LW × 0.9688)
2-0Won by 6
vs Broncos
8 (↓4)Broncos1.0398
(LW × 0.9132)
1-1Lost by 6
@ Falcons
9 (↑7)Ravens1.0373
(LW × 0.9743)
1-1Lost by 1
@ Eagles
10 (↑7)Rams1.0347
(LW × 1.0675)
1-1Won by 3
vs Redskins
11 (↓5)Eagles1.0337
(LW × 0.9547)
2-0Won by 1
vs Ravens
12 (↑13)Packers1.0191
(LW × 1.5205)
1-1Won by 13
vs Bears
13 (↓5)Bears0.9779
(LW × 0.9077)
1-1Lost by 13
@ Packers
14 (↓11)Cowboys0.9689
(LW × 0.8464)
1-1Lost by 20
@ Seahawks
15 (↓8)Patriots0.9645
(LW × 0.8912)
1-1Lost by 2
vs Cardinals
16 (↓15)Redskins0.9618
(LW × 0.8402)
1-1Lost by 3
@ Rams
17 (↑10)Dolphins0.9339
(LW × 1.5064)
1-1Won by 22
vs Raiders
18 (↑12)Bengals0.8627
(LW × 1.4413)
1-1Won by 7
vs Browns
19 (↑5)Giants0.8613
(LW × 1.2825)
1-1Won by 7
vs Buccaneers
20 (↓3)Panthers0.8124
(LW × 0.8381)
1-1Won by 8
vs Saints
21 (↓13)Jets0.8100
(LW × 0.7518)
1-1Lost by 17
@ Steelers
22 (↓11)Vikings0.8089
(LW × 0.7511)
1-1Lost by 3
@ Colts
23 (-)Browns0.7902
(LW × 1.0034)
0-2Lost by 7
@ Bengals
24 (↓7)Chargers0.7776
(LW × 0.8022)
1-1Won by 28
vs Titans
25 (↓14)Buccaneers0.7655
(LW × 0.7108)
1-1Lost by 7
@ Giants
26 (↓15)Raiders0.7582
(LW × 0.7040)
1-1Lost by 22
@ Dolphins
27 (-)Bills0.7436
(LW × 1.1995)
1-1Won by 18
vs Chiefs
28 (↓11)Jaguars0.7397
(LW × 0.7631)
0-2Lost by 20
vs Texans
29 (↓2)Colts0.7304
(LW × 1.1782)
1-1Won by 3
vs Vikings
30 (↓5)Saints0.6921
(LW × 1.0326)
0-2Lost by 8
@ Panthers
31 (↑1)Titans0.5787
(LW × 1.1525)
0-2Lost by 28
@ Chargers
32 (↓1)Chiefs0.5776
(LW × 1.1325)
0-2Lost by 18
@ Bills

Comments:

  • 2-0 teams: 49ers, Texans, Cardinals(!), Falcons, Eagles.

  • 0-2 teams: Browns, Jaguars, Saints, Titans, Chiefs

  • And yeah, that's 3 NFC West teams in the top 5, and all 4 in the top 10. There's still a lot of football left to play, but that's not even close to the worst division in the NFL anymore.

  • The Eagles could very well be the worst 2-0 team we've seen in a long time. Through 2 games, they've given up 6 interceptions, 3 lost fumbles, and 4 sacks. The worst of that was in week 1, but it's certainly been a couple very ugly wins for the Eagles.

  • In spite of a sloppy game in week 1, there are some signs the Packers' defense has made some significant improvements over last year. They've had 4+ sacks in both games (only one such game in 2011), and thanks to a 7-sack performance this week, are already more than a third of the way toward matching their sack total of 2011.

    Given that the Packers' defense has a significant population of rookies and free agents, it seems likely there will be at least a few more rough games defensively this year. But if they can pull things together by the second half of the season, the Packers should have a chance to make a solid playoff run this year.

  • Through 2 games, the Titans have the worst point differential (-49), the fewest total points scored (23), and the fewest rushing yards (58) of any team in the league. And only the Chiefs and Saints have given up more points. Unless things turn around fast, it's going to be a long, disappointing season in Tennessee this year.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

NFL Week 2 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Titans @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.9304
Chargers
δ=19.0
Chargers
-6
Vikings @
Colts
Vikings
ρ=1.7372
Vikings
δ=23.0
Vikings
-1
Raiders @
Dolphins
Raiders
ρ=1.7372
Raiders
δ=22.0
Raiders
-2½
Bears @
Packers
Bears
ρ=1.6075
Bears
δ=28.0
Packers
-6
Buccaneers @
Giants
Buccaneers
ρ=1.6036
Buccaneers
δ=13.0
Giants
-7½
Saints @
Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.4461
Panthers
δ=2.0
Saints
-2½
Jets @
Steelers
Jets
ρ=1.3166
Jets
δ=32.0
Steelers
-6
Browns @
Bengals
Browns
ρ=1.3157
Browns
δ=30.0
Bengals
-7
Chiefs @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.2156
Chiefs
δ=4.0
Bills
-3
Redskins @
Rams
Redskins
ρ=1.1811
Redskins
δ=12.0
Redskins
-3
Cowboys @
Seahawks
Cowboys
ρ=1.1810
Cowboys
δ=11.0
Cowboys
-3
Texans @
Jaguars
Texans
ρ=1.1116
Texans
δ=23.0
Texans
-7½
Lions @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.0629
49ers
δ=4.0
49ers
-7
Broncos @
Falcons
Broncos
ρ=1.0469
Falcons
δ=4.0
Falcons
-3
Ravens @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.0171
Ravens
δ=30.0
Eagles
-2½
Cardinals @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0048
Patriots
δ=17.0
Patriots
-14

Comments:

  • The Giants, Packers, Saints, Bengals, and Steelers are all playoff teams from last year in danger of falling to 0-2. Long-time readers will know an 0-2 start is almost always a very bad sign.

  • The Giants could be in particular trouble. Their game against the Buccaneers appeared to be one of the few soft spots in an otherwise very tough schedule. But the Buccaneers' resurgent defense might make this a very tough battle. No Super Bowl-winning team has started the following season 0-2 since the Elway-less Broncos in 1999.

  • The Lions and Eagles both needed late scores against (presumably) weak opponents to come away with a win last week. They're both facing much tougher opponents this time around, so we'll see how much of Stafford's and Vick's troubles were just early season jitters, and how much they the sign of things to come.

  • The Browns' 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden had the toughest outing of all the rookie quarterbacks last Sunday, and there's already been calls to switch back to Colt McCoy. Given that Weeden was a first round draft pick, the Browns have to give him a chance to succeed. But if he doesn't do better than a 34% completion rate and 4 interceptions a game, that chance can't last very long.

  • The good news for Kevin Kolb is he looked very good in relief of John Skelton, and will have at least one game to re-establish himself as the permanent starter. The bad news is the Cardinals haven't beat the Patriots since 1991, and I don't see any reason to think that streak will end Sunday. Still, as long as Kolb stays healthy and doesn't look completely awful, he should have a good chance at a second start in week 3.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-3)

Right:

Falcons @ Chiefs
Eagles @ Browns
Patriots @ Titans
Chargers @ Raiders
Rams @ Lions
Colts @ Bears
Dolphins @ Texans
Bills @ Jets
Jaguars @ Vikings
Bengals @ Ravens

Wrong:

Redskins @ Saints
Even for what has been a pretty unremarkable Saints' defense, this was a bad game, giving up 464 yards and 8 scores. But probably the Saints' biggest problem was their offensive line. Every time I looked at the game, it seemed like Drew Brees was running away from the Redskins' pass rush, and (usually) throwing the ball away. As a result, Brees had 28 incompletions (including 2 interceptions), and the Saints posted a measly 32 yards rushing.
Panthers @ Buccaneers
In 2010, the Buccaneers made it to 10 wins, largely on the strength of their defense (and an easy schedule). Sunday, it sure looked like they were back. The Buccaneers' defense had 3 sacks, two interceptions, and held Cam Newton and the rest of the Panthers to an astonishing 10 yards rushing.
Seahawks @ Cardinals
As I speculated in my preseason notes post, Russel Wilson looked a lot more like a rookie quarterback facing a regular-season NFL defense. And this game was like a lot of last year's games for the Cardinals. The defense played well, and left the door open for the offense to secure a win with some late-game heroics.

Split Picks: (Pythag: 2-1, Line: 1-2)

Steelers (Pythag) @ Broncos (Line)
Hard to call this anything except Manning being Manning. After 3 unproductive drives, the Broncos' offense scored on their next 4 drives (not counting a 1-play kneel-down at the end of the first half). And the Broncos' defense found out how much easier it is to play with a lead, and be able to assume their offense is probably going to score the next time they have the ball.
Cowboys (Pythag) @ Giants (Line)
This was really not a good game for the Giants on either side of the ball. They haven't had a game with fewer than 270 yards of offense since 2010 (and not at home since 2008). They weren't good on defense, either. The Giants' defense has allowed their share of 433+ yard games (again mostly on the road). But besides the Packers @ Giants game last year, you have to go back to 2005 to find the last time the Giants allowed that many yards at home.
Unless this game was a major fluke on the part of the Giants, they're going to need a big-time turnaround to avoid the mother of all Super Bowl hang-overs.
49ers (Pythag) @ Packers (Line)
As noted in the power rankings, this was just a terrible day for the Packers' defense. They didn't force the 49ers to punt for a second time until the end of the 3rd quarter. In the mean time, the 49ers scored on 5 consecutive drives. The Packers' defense seemed to get some traction late in the game, but by then it was too little, too late.

Totals

RW
Pythagorean124
Line 115

Monday, September 10, 2012

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
T 149ers1.14481-0Won by 8
@ Packers
T 1Redskins1.14481-0Won by 8
@ Saints
3Cowboys1.14471-0Won by 7
@ Giants
4Broncos1.13861-0Won by 12
vs Steelers
5Falcons1.08771-0Won by 16
@ Chiefs
6Eagles1.08281-0Won by 1
@ Browns
7Patriots1.08221-0Won by 21
@ Titans
T 8Bears1.07741-0Won by 20
vs Colts
T 8Jets1.07741-0Won by 20
vs Bills
T 8Texans1.07741-0Won by 20
vs Dolphins
T11Cardinals1.07701-0Won by 4
vs Seahawks
T11Buccaneers1.07701-0Won by 6
vs Panthers
T11Lions1.07701-0Won by 4
vs Rams
T11Vikings1.07701-0Won by 3
vs Jaguars
T11Raiders1.07701-0Won by 2
vs Chargers
16Ravens1.06461-0Won by 31
vs Bengals
T17Jaguars0.96930-1Lost by 3
@ Vikings
T17Chargers0.96930-1Lost by 2
@ Raiders
T17Rams0.96930-1Lost by 4
@ Lions
T17Seahawks0.96930-1Lost by 4
@ Cardinals
T17Panthers0.96930-1Lost by 6
@ Buccaneers
22Steelers0.81830-1Lost by 12
@ Broncos
23Browns0.78750-1Lost by 1
vs Eagles
24Giants0.67160-1Lost by 7
vs Cowboys
T25Saints0.67030-1Lost by 8
vs Redskins
T25Packers0.67030-1Lost by 8
vs 49ers
T27Colts0.62000-1Lost by 20
@ Bears
T27Bills0.62000-1Lost by 20
@ Jets
T27Dolphins0.62000-1Lost by 20
@ Texans
30Bengals0.59860-1Lost by 31
@ Ravens
31Chiefs0.51000-1Lost by 16
vs Falcons
32Titans0.50210-1Lost by 21
vs Patriots

Comments:

It's just one game into the season, with 16 more weeks to play, but I think we do have the start to some answers that I asked in the game picks:

  • The Giants looked a lot more like the regular season version than their playoff version Wednesday night.

  • The Saints look like they are in a lot of trouble. Their defense gave up 464 yards on Sunday, which gives them (at least for the week, but against some stiff competition) the worst defense of the 2012 season so far.

  • The five rookie quarterbacks starting Sunday were a combined 1-4 this week. Robert Griffin III (2 tds 0 ints) and Russell Wilson (1 td 1 int) were the only ones not to throw at least 3 interceptions. We'll see how this plays out over the season, but it's hardly a resounding recommendation for starting a rookie QB right from day 1.

  • Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, and MJD all seemed to be back to their old selves. Brian Urlacher was a non-factor in the Bears' game, but at least for one week, that didn't matter.

  • As for the Packers defense... oh, brother. Is it possible it's gotten worse? Yet another game they gave up over 350 yards, and that to a 49ers team that has just a handful of 350+ yard games on the road outside the division in the last decade.

One other item of note: this is the first time since 1990 that the 49ers have beat the Packers in the regular season.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

NFL Week 1 Picks

GamePythagPythag RHLine
Rams @
Lions
Lions
0.4721
Lions
0.6523
Lions
-8½
Redskins @
Saints
Saints
0.3964
Saints
0.5669
Saints
-9½
Steelers @
Broncos
Steelers
0.3352
Steelers
0.1009
Broncos
-1
Falcons @
Chiefs
Falcons
0.3326
Falcons
0.1970
Falcons
-2
Colts @
Bears
Bears
0.3150
Bears
0.5308
Bears
-9½
Eagles @
Browns
Eagles
0.3022
Eagles
0.3044
Eagles
-8
Panthers @
Buccaneers
Panthers
0.2510
Panthers
0.1243
Panthers
-2½
Patriots @
Titans
Patriots
0.2085
Patriots
0.2004
Patriots
-6½
Bengals @
Ravens
Ravens
0.1597
Ravens
0.2465
Ravens
-6
Chargers @
Raiders
Chargers
0.1530
Chargers
0.0701
Chargers
-1½
Dolphins @
Texans
Texans
0.1490
Texans
0.1828
Texans
-10
Bills @
Jets
Jets
0.1127
Jets
0.4197
Jets
-3
Seahawks @
Cardinals
Seahawks
0.0755
Cardinals*
0.0534
Seahawks
-2½
Cowboys @
Giants
Cowboys
0.0453
Giants*
0.1189
Giants
-4
49ers @
Packers
49ers
0.0271
Packers*
0.2499
Packers
-5½
Jaguars @
Vikings
Vikings
0.0131
Vikings
0.2167
Vikings
-4½

Comments:

Maybe it's because I didn't watch as much preseason football this year as compared to last, but mostly what I see in these games is a lot of unanswered questions:

  • Are the Giants going to take up where they left off in the playoffs, or how they played in the regular season?

  • Can the Saints overcome all the offseason drama to take care of RG3 and the Redskins? (The last time the Redskins and Saints played was in 2009, and the Saints needed a 10-point comeback and overtime to secure a win.)

  • Along with the Redskins and RG3, there's a lot of teams starting rookie quarterbacks. With guys like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton starting and succeeding from year one, the old conventional wisdom of letting a rookie QB sit on the bench for a year or two could be over.

  • Can Peyton Manning perform as well with his new team as he did with the Colts? How well will his surgically repaired neck (not to mention his 36 year-old body) hold up to another season of hits?

  • How much is it going to affect MJD to have missed the entire preseason? (Of course, given how bad the Jaguars are likely to be, it may not matter much.)

  • How effective is Adrian Peterson going to be? Stories like this one sure make it sound like he's not anywhere near 100% recovered from his injury yet.

  • Similarly, how effective is Brian Urlacher going to be? He's a big part of the Bears' defense, and that defense is a big part of how they win games.

  • How much better is the Packers' defense going to be this year? Can they hold the 49ers offense under 350 yards? (A mark the Packers' D only made 3 times last year). Can the Packers' offense continue to shred opposing defenses like they (mostly) did last year?

The good news is, we start getting answers Wednesday night.