| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans @ Texans | Texans ρ=1.8668 | Texans δ=39.6 | Texans -12½ |
| Saints @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.6927 | Packers δ=29.4 | Packers -7½ |
| Panthers @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.6694 | Falcons δ=33.1 | Falcons -7½ |
| Seahawks @ Rams | Seahawks ρ=1.5696 | Seahawks* δ=28.6 | Seahawks -1 |
| Browns @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.4176 | Ravens δ=20.7 | Ravens -13 |
| Vikings @ Lions | Vikings ρ=1.2684 | Vikings* δ=14.5 | Lions -4½ |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.2600 | Broncos δ=15.5 | Broncos -6½ |
| Dolphins @ Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=1.2464 | Cardinals δ=7.7 | Cardinals -6½ |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Chargers ρ=1.2048 | Chargers* δ=13.7 | Chargers -1 |
| Patriots @ Bills | Patriots ρ=1.1701 | Patriots* δ=12.8 | Patriots -4 |
| Redskins @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.1474 | Buccaneers δ=9.9 | Buccaneers -2½ |
| Giants @ Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.0821 | Giants* δ=4.4 | Eagles -1 |
| Bengals @ Jaguars | Jaguars ρ=1.0706 | Jaguars δ=12.5 | Bengals -2 |
| Bears @ Cowboys | Bears* ρ=1.0036 | Bears* δ=2.9 | Cowboys -4 |
| 49ers @ Jets | Jets ρ=1.0034 | Jets δ=4.7 | 49ers -4½ |
Bye: Steelers, Colts
Comments:
Do the Texans have the AFC South won already? If the first three games are any indication, it may take the Jaguars, Colts and Titans combined to match the Texans' win total.
The Falcons are another team that seem to be well on their way to clinching their division. They've already got a 2-game lead in their division, and it might be November before they play another team with a winning record.
Given what happened Monday night, and given how bad the Saints defense has been, this has to be the week the Packers' offense finally has a good game, if it's ever going to happen this season.
Can the Vikings beat the Lions this week? If the Lions allows 44 points again, they can.
I think I like the APR/SRS pick of the Bears over the Cowboys this week. The Cowboys have turned the ball over 6 times so far, and that's the kind of thing the Bears thrive on.
SRS makes an intriguing rogue pick of the Giants over the Eagles. I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Eagles too, especially given how convincingly the Eagles got beat down by the Cardinals last Sunday.
I'd be a lot more inclined to consider the Jets over the 49ers if Darrelle Revis wasn't done for the season. Still, it's not like the Vikings have a shut-down corner anything like Revis, and they got the job done...
