Wednesday, November 30, 2011

NFL Week 13 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Colts @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.5073
Patriots
δ=25.8
Patriots
-20
Rams @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.3477
49ers
δ=20.1
49ers
-13
Packers @
Giants
Packers
ρ=1.2962
Packers*
δ=15.1
Packers
-7
Ravens @
Browns
Ravens
ρ=1.2935
Ravens*
δ=14.7
Ravens
-7
Chiefs @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.2008
Bears
δ=18.4
Bears
-8
Jets @
Redskins
Jets
ρ=1.1498
Jets*
δ=7.4
Jets
-3
Cowboys @
Cardinals
Cowboys
ρ=1.1216
Cowboys*
δ=10.3
Cowboys
-4½
Broncos @
Vikings
Broncos
ρ=1.0965
Broncos*
δ=3.1
Vikings
-1½
Panthers @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0800
Buccaneers
δ=0.2
Buccaneers
-3
Titans @
Bills
Titans
ρ=1.0721
Titans*
δ=1.7
Bills
-1½
Falcons @
Texans
Texans*
ρ=1.0715
Texans
δ=5.9
Falcons
-1
Bengals @
Steelers
Steelers*
ρ=1.0692
Steelers
δ=1.5
Steelers
-7
Raiders @
Dolphins
Raiders
ρ=1.0226
Dolphins
δ=1.8
Dolphins
-2½
Eagles @
Seahawks
Eagles
ρ=1.0212
Eagles*
δ=5.2
Eagles
-2½
Lions @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0175
Saints
δ=1.0
Saints
-9
Chargers @
Jaguars
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0053
Chargers*
δ=1.3
Chargers
-1½

Comments:

  • No line for Broncos @ Vikings at the moment. Maybe waiting for status on whether Adrian Peterson will play? Hopefully I can update by Saturday. Update: done. Apparently the issue was Von Miller, the Broncos' stand-out rookie LB, and a big part of their defensive resurgence. He had thumb surgery this week, although reportedly he will play.

  • Patriots -20 is the widest line of the season so far, beating out a couple games with lines of -15½. Teams the line favored by 10 or more points are 19-2 (straight up) so far this season.

  • The Ravens with another road game at a weak opponent. They lost at the Titans, Jaguars, and Seahawks. With this and two other road games left, the Ravens need to break that streak to keep ahead of the Steelers.

  • The Titans may have to win out to have a chance to finish ahead of the Texans. They'll need a lot more of those 100+ yard rushing games from Chris Johnson to do it.

  • The Bengals are this years team that is 1) clearly doing better than last year, but 2) taking advantage of the weaker opponents on their schedule. They may get to the playoffs, but if they do, they'll probably play on the road, at an opponent almost certaily better than any team they've beat so far this season.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

NFL Week 12 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

We seem to have reached the late-season agreement phase earlier than usual this year.

On the Bubble:
Chiefs (+7), Redskins (+6), Raiders (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble: Jaguars (-8)
Jack Del Rio (finally) fired as head coach today. The Jaguars have had 3 winning seasons in the last 12.
On the bubble: Dolphins (-8)
ESPN's comment for the Dolphins is priceless:
Miami is the type of scrappy team no playoff contender wants to face. (Walker)
While the Dolphins are probably better than their 3-8 record, they're not that much better. The fact that the Cowboys needed a last-second field goal to beat them by 1 point says more about the Cowboys than it does about the Dolphins.
Any playoff contender worth the name has to be thinking "the Dolphins are the kind of team we need to be able to steamroll early and often".

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (11-1)

Right:
Steelers @ Chiefs
Texans @ Jaguars
Panthers @ Colts
Packers @ Lions
Patriots @ Eagles
Browns @ Bengals
Vikings @ Falcons
Dolphins @ Cowboys
Bills @ Jets
Buccaneers @ Titans
Giants @ Saints

Wrong:

Redskins @ Seahawks
There's also a reason why Rex Grossman was the starting quarterback for the Bears as long as he was—he can, at times (and especially when he has a good supporting cast) play very well. The Seahawks managed to establish a 10-point fourth quarter lead, but "Good Rex" made a showing, driving the Redskins down the field for a couple late touchdowns, and it was more than the Seahawks could respond to.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-2, SRS 1-3, Line 2-2)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)
Beanie Wells racked up a single game franchise record 228 yards rushing, Larry Fitzgerald managed to get 55 yards receiving (in spite of John Skeltons' awful day passing), and Patrick Peterson got another punt return touchdown. Against one of the worst teams in the league, that was enough for a win.
Broncos (APR) @ Chargers (SRS, Line)
Isn't Philip Rivers supposed to be a good quarterback? His passing numbers (19/36, 188 yards, 1 td) sure didn't show it in this game. Tim Tebow was virtually as productive (9/18, 143 yards, 1 td) on half as many attempts. Mix in some very timid play calling, and the Chargers' losing streak is now at 6 games.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)
Thanks to their defense, the Bears were in this game right to the end. But Caleb Hanie's 3 interceptions (along with a general inability to sustain drives) were more than the Bears were able to overcome.
49ers (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)
As mentioned in the power rankings post, Frank Gore (39 yards on 14 carries) never got going in this game. Add in an astonishing 9 sacks on Alex Smith, and nearly 100 yards of penalties, and it's a wonder the 49ers managed to score even two field goals.

Totals

Another nice week of picks all around.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 13-3100-59-162.8%
SRS 12-4102-57-164.1%
Line13-3107-53-066.9%

Monday, November 28, 2011

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.1174
(LW × 1.0185)
11-0Won by 12
@ Lions
2 (↑1)Ravens1.0484
(LW × 1.0186)
8-3Won by 10
vs 49ers
3 (↑2)Patriots1.0328
(LW × 1.0272)
8-3Won by 18
@ Eagles
4 (↑2)Texans1.0306
(LW × 1.0255)
8-3Won by 7
@ Jaguars
5 (↓3)49ers1.0274
(LW × 0.9773)
9-2Lost by 10
@ Ravens
6 (↓2)Steelers1.0184
(LW × 1.0059)
8-3Won by 4
@ Chiefs
7 (↑2)Saints0.9789
(LW × 1.0114)
8-3Won by 25
vs Giants
8 (↓1)Bears0.9728
(LW × 0.9874)
7-4Lost by 5
@ Raiders
9 (↓1)Lions0.9621
(LW × 0.9790)
7-4Lost by 12
vs Packers
10 (↑1)Falcons0.9618
(LW × 1.0076)
7-4Won by 10
vs Vikings
11 (↓1)Bengals0.9525
(LW × 0.9881)
7-4Won by 3
vs Browns
12 (-)Cowboys0.9302
(LW × 0.9923)
7-4Won by 1
vs Dolphins
13 (↑3)Broncos0.9218
(LW × 1.0268)
6-5Won by 3
@ Chargers
14 (-)Jets0.9144
(LW × 1.0121)
6-5Won by 4
vs Bills
15 (-)Titans0.9018
(LW × 1.0027)
6-5Won by 6
vs Buccaneers
16 (↑3)Raiders0.8902
(LW × 1.0304)
7-4Won by 5
vs Bears
17 (↓4)Eagles0.8731
(LW × 0.9639)
4-7Lost by 18
vs Patriots
18 (↑4)Dolphins0.8706
(LW × 1.0253)
3-8Lost by 1
@ Cowboys
19 (↓2)Giants0.8621
(LW × 0.9739)
6-5Lost by 25
@ Saints
20 (-)Buccaneers0.8568
(LW × 1.0015)
4-7Lost by 6
@ Titans
21 (-)Jaguars0.8552
(LW × 1.0047)
3-8Lost by 7
vs Texans
22 (↓4)Seahawks0.8550
(LW × 0.9756)
4-7Lost by 6
vs Redskins
23 (↑1)Chargers0.8507
(LW × 1.0034)
4-7Lost by 3
vs Broncos
24 (↓1)Bills0.8411
(LW × 0.9907)
5-6Lost by 4
@ Jets
25 (-)Vikings0.8407
(LW × 1.0118)
2-9Lost by 10
@ Falcons
26 (-)Cardinals0.8294
(LW × 1.0057)
4-7Won by 3
@ Rams
27 (-)Browns0.8105
(LW × 1.0180)
4-7Lost by 3
@ Bengals
28 (-)Chiefs0.8101
(LW × 1.0264)
4-7Lost by 4
vs Steelers
29 (-)Redskins0.7953
(LW × 1.0106)
4-7Won by 6
@ Seahawks
30 (-)Panthers0.7934
(LW × 1.0123)
3-8Won by 8
@ Colts
31 (-)Rams0.7623
(LW × 1.0016)
2-9Lost by 3
vs Cardinals
32 (-)Colts0.6852
(LW × 0.9866)
0-11Lost by 8
vs Panthers

Comments:

  • Whether it's caused by his broken finger, or something else, Matt Stafford has developed a big problem passing. He had 4 interceptions in the first 7 games of the season, and now has 9 in the last 3.

  • The 49ers have been leaning pretty heavily on Frank Gore's running game. As demonstrated Thursday night, it gets pretty ugly for them when they face a defense that can shut him down.

  • You can add "injury prone" to Matt Leinart's woes. One of the reasons he lost the start to Kurt Warner in Arizona? He broke his collar bone 5 games into the 2007 season.

  • The good news for the Texans is that a win over the hapless Colts in week 16 will give them the tie-breaker over the second-place Titans. That, and one other win will get them to at least 10 wins, which is probably more than the Titans can surpass.

  • The other good news for the Texans is they do have 5 regular season games left to get whomever their quarterback is going to be up to speed and ready for the playoffs.

  • The playoff picture is starting to clear up, at least in the NFC. The Packers and 49ers have reached the win-and-in point (although the Packers need a win and help to clinch their division).

  • The Broncos now have a winning record. Say what you will about Tim Tebow, the Broncos are playing noticably better since they benched Kyle Orton. Attitude makes a difference.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

NFL Week 12 Picks

Update: somehow I missed a line for Patriots @ Eagles. Now added.

GameAPRSRSLine
Steelers @
Chiefs
Steelers
ρ=1.2827
Steelers*
δ=17.8
Steelers
-10½
Browns @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.2107
Bengals
δ=9.3
Bengals
-7
Texans @
Jaguars
Texans
ρ=1.1806
Texans*
δ=13.9
Texans
-3
Vikings @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1489
Falcons
δ=9.6
Falcons
-9½
Bears @
Raiders
Bears
ρ=1.1403
Bears*
δ=12.5
Raiders
-4½
Panthers @
Colts
Panthers
ρ=1.1284
Panthers*
δ=13.0
Panthers
-3½
Packers @
Lions
Packers
ρ=1.1163
Packers*
δ=3.6
Packers
-6
Redskins @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1136
Seahawks
δ=1.4
Seahawks
-3½
Patriots @
Eagles
Patriots
ρ=1.1100
Patriots*
δ=5.2
Patriots
-3
Dolphins @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1040
Cowboys
δ=6.0
Cowboys
-7
Giants @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0935
Saints
δ=7.3
Saints
-7
Cardinals @
Rams
Cardinals
ρ=1.0836
Cardinals*
δ=6.2
Rams
-3
Bills @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.0642
Jets
δ=3.9
Jets
-8
Broncos @
Chargers
Broncos
ρ=1.0588
Chargers
δ=0.8
Chargers
-7
Buccaneers @
Titans
Titans*
ρ=1.0513
Titans
δ=4.1
Titans
-3
49ers @
Ravens
49ers*
ρ=1.0214
49ers*
δ=2.8
Ravens
-3

Comments:

  • I wonder if NBC regrets not flexing Steelers @ Chiefs? There's not a lot of alternate choices, but this has real potential to be another blow-out snoozer.

  • CBS Sports has a nice "if the season ended today" playoff ranking. The Packers and 49ers can both clinch a playoff spot this week with a win and help.

  • The AFC race is really tight. There are 10 teams with 5, 6, or 7 wins right now. Nobody's spot on that list is anywhere near safe just yet.

  • If the Texans beat the struggling Jaguars and Colts, they will have the tie-breaker over the currently 2nd-place Titans. That will also get them to 9 wins, which could easily be all it takes to finish ahead of the Titans.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

NFL Week 11 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 11 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

The Giants move to (+5), and off the bubble. ESPN's rank of #12 seems high, but with games coming up against the Saints, Packers, Cowboys, and Jets, they will have their chance to prove they belong there, or fall lower.

On the Bubble:
Saints (+6), Chiefs (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
Jaguars (-7)

NFL Week 11 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-2)

Right:
Cowboys @ Redskins
Raiders @ Vikings
Buccaneers @ Packers
Cardinals @ 49ers
Panthers @ Lions
Chargers @ Bears
Titans @ Falcons
Bengals @ Ravens
Chiefs @ Patriots

Wrong:

Jets @ Broncos
The Broncos only had two drives that didn't end with a punt, lost fumble, or giving the ball over on downs. All the Jets needed to do to win this game was 1) put a couple touchdowns on the scoreboard, 2) take care of the ball, and 3) stop the Broncos run game. They failed on all three counts.
Jaguars @ Browns
The Browns offense continued to struggle, but unlike last week, they did manage to get to the endzone a couple times. And that was enough to get past the Jaguars, who, for the 6th time this season, fell short of 14 points scored.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-2, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins(Line)
The Dolphins only managed two sustained drives, but they both ended in touchdowns. Their defense intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick twice, giving their offense two short fields and two more touchdowns. The Dolphins' special teams added another touchdown, and the end result was way more than the Bills could recover from.
Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)
I'm not really sure why the Line liked the Rams in this game. While the Seahawks are not a good team, the Rams have a well-deserved spot at the bottom of the power rankings.
Eagles (SRS) @ Giants (APR, Line)
If the Eagles' defense had been playing consistently at this level all season, the "Dream Team" title would not be a joke. The Giants did not have a drive longer than 16 yards until late in the first half, and only had 3 sustained drives the whole game. Vince Young looked predictably rusty on offense, but the Eagles' dominating defense was able to cover for his mistakes and carry their team to a win.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 10-487-56-160.8%
SRS 11-390-53-162.8%
Line10-494-50-065.2%

Monday, November 21, 2011

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.0971
(LW × 0.9853)
10-0Won by 9
vs Buccaneers
2 (-)49ers1.0512
(LW × 1.0073)
9-1Won by 16
vs Cardinals
3 (-)Ravens1.0292
(LW × 1.0102)
7-3Won by 7
vs Bengals
4 (↑1)Steelers1.0124
(LW × 1.0019)
7-3Bye
5 (↓1)Patriots1.0055
(LW × 0.9918)
7-3Won by 31
vs Chiefs
6 (-)Texans1.0050
(LW × 1.0098)
7-3Bye
7 (↑1)Bears0.9852
(LW × 1.0094)
7-3Won by 11
vs Chargers
8 (↓1)Lions0.9828
(LW × 1.0054)
7-3Won by 14
vs Panthers
9 (↑1)Saints0.9679
(LW × 1.0008)
7-3Bye
10 (↓1)Bengals0.9639
(LW × 0.9926)
6-4Lost by 7
@ Ravens
11 (↑1)Falcons0.9546
(LW × 1.0134)
6-4Won by 6
vs Titans
12 (↓1)Cowboys0.9375
(LW × 0.9908)
6-4Won by 3
@ Redskins
13 (↑4)Eagles0.9058
(LW × 1.0181)
4-6Won by 7
@ Giants
14 (↓1)Jets0.9035
(LW × 0.9891)
5-5Lost by 4
@ Broncos
15 (↑1)Titans0.8993
(LW × 1.0020)
5-5Lost by 6
@ Falcons
16 (↑2)Broncos0.8977
(LW × 1.0195)
5-5Won by 4
vs Jets
17 (↓3)Giants0.8852
(LW × 0.9740)
6-4Lost by 7
vs Eagles
18 (↑3)Seahawks0.8764
(LW × 1.0332)
4-6Won by 17
@ Rams
19 (↑1)Raiders0.8640
(LW × 1.0105)
6-4Won by 6
@ Vikings
20 (↑3)Buccaneers0.8555
(LW × 1.0148)
4-6Lost by 9
@ Packers
21 (↓2)Jaguars0.8513
(LW × 0.9920)
3-7Lost by 4
@ Browns
22 (↑4)Dolphins0.8491
(LW × 1.0448)
3-7Won by 27
vs Bills
23 (↓8)Bills0.8490
(LW × 0.9455)
5-5Lost by 27
@ Dolphins
24 (↓2)Chargers0.8478
(LW × 1.0007)
4-6Lost by 11
@ Bears
25 (↓1)Vikings0.8309
(LW × 0.9879)
2-8Lost by 6
vs Raiders
26 (↓1)Cardinals0.8247
(LW × 0.9927)
3-7Lost by 16
@ 49ers
27 (↑4)Browns0.7962
(LW × 1.0253)
4-6Won by 4
vs Jaguars
28 (↑1)Chiefs0.7893
(LW × 1.0044)
4-6Lost by 31
@ Patriots
29 (↓2)Redskins0.7870
(LW × 0.9828)
3-7Lost by 3
vs Cowboys
30 (↓2)Panthers0.7837
(LW × 0.9872)
2-8Lost by 14
@ Lions
31 (↓1)Rams0.7610
(LW × 0.9735)
2-8Lost by 17
vs Seahawks
32 (-)Colts0.6945
(LW × 1.0044)
0-10Bye

Comments:

  • The Eagles are easily the highest ranked team with a losing record. But there's still a lot of teams between them and a playoff spot. And with losses to teams like the Bills and Cardinals, I'm not sure I'd call any game a "likely win" for them.

  • The Dolphins are another team making noise about "running the table" and getting into the playoffs. My rule of thumb is that once it gets to be Thanksgiving, any team more than a couple wins out of the playoff race is done. Right now, the Colts are still the only AFC team with a worse record than the Dolphins.

  • The Chiefs looked really bad Monday night. Especially without Matt Cassel, they may not win another game this season.

  • And the Giants lose another game they really should've won. It will be interesting to see how far down ESPN moves them in the power rankings.

  • In the Bills 5 wins, their defense generated a total of 16 turnovers. In their 5 losses, their defense generated 4. Not coincidentally, the Bills scored 31+ points in 4 of their first 5 games. They didn't score 31 points total in their last 3.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

NFL Week 11 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Buccaneers @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.3209
Packers
δ=18.3
Packers
-14
Chiefs @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.2902
Patriots
δ=19.7
Patriots
-14½
Cardinals @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.2562
49ers
δ=15.2
49ers
-9½
Panthers @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.2314
Lions
δ=12.3
Lions
-7
Cowboys @
Redskins
Cowboys
ρ=1.1816
Cowboys*
δ=11.0
Cowboys
-8
Chargers @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.1520
Bears
δ=12.3
Bears
-3½
Jaguars @
Browns
Jaguars
ρ=1.1051
Jaguars*
δ=3.5
Jaguars
-1
Bills @
Dolphins
Bills
ρ=1.1050
Bills*
δ=5.3
Dolphins
-1
Seahawks @
Rams
Seahawks
ρ=1.0851
Seahawks*
δ=6.0
Rams
-1
Titans @
Falcons
Falcons*
ρ=1.0496
Falcons
δ=3.1
Falcons
-5½
Bengals @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0492
Ravens
δ=5.0
Ravens
-7
Jets @
Broncos
Jets
ρ=1.0375
Jets*
δ=8.8
Jets
-4½
Eagles @
Giants
Giants*
ρ=1.0215
Eagles*
δ=2.8
Giants
-3
Raiders @
Vikings
Raiders
ρ=1.0166
Raiders*
δ=1.3
Raiders
-1½

Bye: Texans, Colts, Saints, Steelers

Comments:

  • Some close lines for games maching up some pretty bad teams. Though I'm surprised the Raiders are only getting -1½; Carson Palmer (mostly) played pretty well Thursday night. But their defense has been pretty bad against the run, so Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin could get a lot of yards.

  • The 49ers are 6-2 against the Cardinals in their last 8 meedings. Oddly, one team or the other has swept this series every year but one since realignment.

  • Even with a 6-game lead in the NFC West, the 49ers are still a ways away from clinching the division. They won't get to 11 wins before December, which is what they'll need to clinch, given the Seahawks are hitting a soft spot in their schedule, and could easily get to 5-6.

  • Michael Vick has a rib injury, and may not play on Sunday. The way the Eagles have been playing lately, it may not matter.

  • Matt Cassel is also injured, which means that it's "go time" for backup Tyler Palko, who only has thirteen passes on his career stat line.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

NFL Week 10 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 10 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+7) (On the bubble)
The Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals all pulled off unlikely wins this week, making the Giants somewhat unimpressive record against them look (at least for the moment) somewhat better.
APR and ESPN have both been moving the Giants up the rankings since they first appeared on this list in week 5. Maybe APR had the Giants underrated in week 5, but they did have a pretty awful start to the season, and they've still got some tough games left to go.
(Also) On the bubble:
Chiefs (+8), Saints (+7)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
Jaguars (-6)

NFL Week 10 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-5)

Right:
Jaguars @ Colts
Texans @ Buccaneers
Giants @ 49ers
Vikings @ Packers

Wrong:

Cardinals @ Eagles
When the Eagles play poorly, they don't go for half-measures. Their offense had 11 drives end with a punt, interception, or failed 4th down try. The defense did better, putting a touchdown on the board, and holding the Cardinals to 14 points for most of the game. But then, with the game on the line, they let John Skelton drive the Cardinals' offense 87 yards for what turned out to be the winning touchdown.
Rams @ Browns
The good news for the Browns was they held the Rams to 13 points, and managed to mount 5 sustained drives on offense. The bad news for the Browns is that those 5 drives ended with field goal attempts, and the last one missed. And once again, it's looking very much like the Browns won't make it past 5 wins on the season.
Chargers @ Raiders
The Chargers are not a good team. A lot of it, I think, comes down to attitude. Compare the Packers defense's response to giving up 38 points to the Chargers (in spite of coming away with a win) versus Philip Rivers shrugging off a 4-game losing streak by saying "it's been worse". The Raiders' motto "Just Win, Baby" may seem trite, but beats "it's been worse", in more ways than one.
Ravens @ Seahawks
Is there any figuring the Ravens this season? Another weak opponent, another breakdown. The Ravens weren't able to run the ball (just 75 yards on a defense that got shredded for 163 yards a week ago), they turned the ball over 3 times, and (most shocking of all), the Ravens defense was not able to stop the Seahawks from mounting a final drive that used up the final 5:52 of the game clock, denying their offense even a chance at a tying score.
Lions @ Bears
This was a classic win for the Bears: the defense scores, special teams scores, the opponent throws lots of passes to the Bears' defense, and the Bears' offense doesn't have to do anything except take advantage of the short fields the defense provides. As for the Lions, Matt Stafford looked really awful, filling the air with balls including 4 interceptions. The Lions need to start Shaun Hill until Stafford is healthy, or their playoff chances are going to slip away again.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-4, SRS 3-4, Line 4-3)

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Chiefs (Line)
Speaking of attitudes in the locker room, I think we're seeing another example of that making a difference with Tim Tebow and the Broncos. The bad news is you have to wonder how many games the Broncos can play running the ball 50+ times. Surprisingly, it's not that uncommon, but nobody's done it even 4 times in a season since the '87 Bengals.
Titans (APR) @ Panthers (SRS, Line)
Have teams figured out how to defend against Cam Newton? After some gaudy passing stats early, his numbers have become much more ordinary. In this game, the Panthers only had two drives longer than 48 yards, and they both ended in a turnover. The Titans offense had some ugly stats on offense too (5 punts and an interception), but were able to sustain enough drives to win easily.
Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)
The Jets just didn't seem ready for this game. In spite of the (supposedly) weak Patriots defense, the Jets only mounted 3 sustained drives, one of which ended in a missed field goal. And whatever faults the Patriots may have, Tom Brady is still a very good quarterback, and Bill Belichick is still a very good coach, and they are still capable of putting a lot of points on the board.
Redskins (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins (Line)
The Redskins haven't won a game since Tim Hightower went down for the season. Since then, they've been averaging 53.4 rushing yards per game, putting a lot of pressure on their quarterback. As a result (and, as I suspected), the Redskins were no match for the not-as-bad-as-they-seemed Dolphins.
Steelers (Line) @ Bengals (APR, SRS)
The Steelers defense was able to hold Andy Dalton in check (50% completion rate, 170 yards, 2 tds and 2 interceptions). The Bengals were able to score 17 points, but it wasn't enough to keep up with the Steelers.
Bills (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
The Bills defense didn't have an anwer for the Cowboys passing game: Tony Romo threw for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns, including a lot of deep balls. Ryan Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, had a lot of trouble passing, overthrowing a lot of his receivers, and throwing 3 interceptions along the way.
Saints (SRS, Line) @ Falcons (APR)
For those playing along at home, the answer is "no, you do not go for it on 4th and 1 from your own 29 in overtime." The Falcons defense had forced the Saints to punt the previous two times they had the ball (including once in overtime). Especially playing at home, you've got to give your defense a chance to make a stop, even if they are facing Drew Brees.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 7-977-52-159.6%
SRS 7-979-50-161.2%
Line 8-884-46-064.6%

Monday, November 14, 2011

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.1135
(LW × 0.9855)
9-0Won by 38
vs Vikings
2 (-)49ers1.0436
(LW × 0.9821)
8-1Won by 7
vs Giants
3 (↑1)Ravens1.0188
(LW × 0.9971)
6-3Lost by 5
@ Seahawks
4 (↑2)Patriots1.0138
(LW × 1.0304)
6-3Won by 21
@ Jets
5 (↑5)Steelers1.0105
(LW × 1.0592)
7-3Won by 7
@ Bengals
6 (↑7)Texans0.9953
(LW × 1.0457)
7-3Won by 28
@ Buccaneers
7 (↓4)Lions0.9775
(LW × 0.9435)
6-3Lost by 24
@ Bears
8 (-)Bears0.9761
(LW × 1.0027)
6-3Won by 24
vs Lions
9 (↓4)Bengals0.9711
(LW × 0.9733)
6-3Lost by 7
vs Steelers
10 (↓1)Saints0.9671
(LW × 0.9967)
7-3Won by 3
@ Falcons
11 (↑4)Cowboys0.9462
(LW × 1.0181)
5-4Won by 37
vs Bills
12 (↓5)Falcons0.9420
(LW × 0.9637)
5-4Lost by 3
vs Saints
13 (↓2)Jets0.9135
(LW × 0.9582)
5-4Lost by 21
vs Patriots
14 (↑2)Giants0.9089
(LW × 1.0072)
6-3Lost by 7
@ 49ers
15 (↓3)Bills0.8980
(LW × 0.9431)
5-4Lost by 37
@ Cowboys
16 (↑4)Titans0.8975
(LW × 1.0401)
5-4Won by 27
@ Panthers
17 (↓3)Eagles0.8897
(LW × 0.9553)
3-6Lost by 4
vs Cardinals
18 (↑1)Broncos0.8805
(LW × 1.0174)
4-5Won by 7
@ Chiefs
19 (↑3)Jaguars0.8581
(LW × 1.0252)
3-6Won by 14
@ Colts
20 (↑4)Raiders0.8550
(LW × 1.0244)
5-4Won by 7
@ Chargers
21 (↑6)Seahawks0.8482
(LW × 1.0410)
3-6Won by 5
vs Ravens
22 (↓5)Chargers0.8473
(LW × 0.9523)
4-5Lost by 7
vs Raiders
23 (↓5)Buccaneers0.8430
(LW × 0.9478)
4-5Lost by 28
vs Texans
24 (↓3)Vikings0.8411
(LW × 0.9757)
2-7Lost by 38
@ Packers
25 (↑3)Cardinals0.8307
(LW × 1.0357)
3-6Won by 4
@ Eagles
26 (↑3)Dolphins0.8127
(LW × 1.0217)
2-7Won by 11
vs Redskins
27 (↓4)Redskins0.8008
(LW × 0.9591)
3-6Lost by 11
@ Dolphins
28 (↓3)Panthers0.7938
(LW × 0.9531)
2-7Lost by 27
vs Titans
29 (↓3)Chiefs0.7858
(LW × 0.9605)
4-5Lost by 7
vs Broncos
30 (↑1)Rams0.7817
(LW × 1.0253)
2-7Won by 1
@ Browns
31 (↓1)Browns0.7765
(LW × 0.9932)
3-6Lost by 1
vs Rams
32 (-)Colts0.6915
(LW × 0.9709)
0-10Lost by 14
vs Jaguars

Comments:

  • A dominating performance by the Packers Monday Night, and one of the best showings on defense all season. And with a 3-game lead on the Lions and Bears, the Packers will win the NFC North, barring a pretty epic collapse.

  • The Ravens drop in power after losing to the low-ranked Seahawks, but (as far as APR is concerned), helped by the fact that nearly every team they've played so far won this weekend. The Lions take a bigger hit, and there's nobody to keep them from moving up a spot in the rankings.

  • The Patriots are just a hair behind though, thanks to a very impressive road win in the division.

  • The Texans losing Matt Schaub really hurts. I've seen Matt Leinart play quarterback, and he's mostly unimpressive on his good days. Worse, Leinart's best days playing are all at least 4 years ago. The only other QB on the Texans' roster right now is rookie (5th round pick) Taylor Yates.

  • One of the keys to the Bears' winning streak has been protecting Cutler—after giving up 14 sacks in the first 3 games of the season, they've only given up 9 in the 6 games since then. And at 6-3, they have to be one of the favorites to clinch a wildcard berth.

  • And barring some kind of fluke opponent collapse, it's starting to look like the Colts will finish the season 0-16. They've just collapsed in every phase of the game, and haven't come close to a win since early October.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

NFL Week 9 APR vs. ESPN

I just noticed I forgot to post this Tuesday afternoon...

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 9 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+10)
An impressive win for the Giants this week (but you can ask the Eagles what one impressive win is worth). APR moves them up 5 spots, but ESPN moves them up 3. Still no decision here, and the Giants have a lot of tough opponents yet to play.
On the bubble:
Chiefs (+7)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
Falcons (-6), Patriots (-6)

NFL Week 10 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Vikings @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.3108
Packers
δ=13.9
Packers
-14
Ravens @
Seahawks
Ravens
ρ=1.2540
Ravens*
δ=15.6
Ravens
-6½
Giants @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.1775
49ers
δ=11.4
49ers
-3
Jaguars @
Colts
Jaguars
ρ=1.1753
Jaguars*
δ=13.0
Jaguars
-3
Cardinals @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.1613
Eagles
δ=10.5
Eagles
-14
Texans @
Buccaneers
Texans
ρ=1.0702
Texans*
δ=8.4
Texans
-3
Raiders @
Chargers
Chargers*
ρ=1.0660
Chargers
δ=2.9
Chargers
-7
Lions @
Bears
Lions
ρ=1.0642
Lions*
δ=4.4
Bears
-2½
Broncos @
Chiefs
Broncos
ρ=1.0578
Broncos*
δ=4.9
Chiefs
-3
Redskins @
Dolphins
Redskins
ρ=1.0497
Redskins*
δ=2.4
Dolphins
-4
Steelers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0458
Bengals
δ=0.4
Steelers
-3
Titans @
Panthers
Titans
ρ=1.0361
Panthers
δ=2.9
Panthers
-3
Patriots @
Jets
Patriots*
ρ=1.0321
Patriots*
δ=0.0
Jets
-1
Rams @
Browns
Browns*
ρ=1.0255
Browns
δ=1.9
Browns
-2½
Bills @
Cowboys
Bills
ρ=1.0246
Bills*
δ=3.1
Cowboys
-5
Saints @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0074
Saints*
δ=4.2
Saints
-1

Comments:

  • This week is acually one of the best remaining chances the Colts have to get a win this season. The Panthers (#25) are their only remaining opponent ranked lower than the Jaguars (#22).

  • The Dolphins are favored to win a game! Looking back, I'm not sure the Line is wrong here. Even when the Redskins were winning, they barely got by against some bad teams (Cardinals, Rams), and they haven't finished within 7 points of a win in more than a month. I'm not ready to hop on the Dolphins bandwagon after one win, but this does seem like a game they can win.

  • The Buccaneers 4-2 start is going to seem like a long time ago if they can't pull out a home win against the Texans this week. With a trip to Green Bay as a follow-up, they could find themselves in a 4-6 hole, and likely out of the playoffs very easily.

  • The Bears are another team backed into a corner. They've already lost once to the Lions, so a loss this week will mean a season sweep, and almost certainly lock the Bears into a 3rd-place finish in the NFC North. If the Bears win, both teams will be at 6-3, and the Bears will have a much better chance to contend for a wildcard spot down the stretch.

  • Last week, the Patriots lost at home for the first time since Matt Cassel was subbing for an injured Tom Brady. If they lose again this week, it will be the first 3-game losing streak since the 2002 season. I wonder how close Bill Bellichick is to being on the hot seat? It's been 4 years since the Patriots have won a playoff game, and 7 years since thier last Super Bowl win...

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

NFL Week 9 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-4)

Right:
Falcons @ Colts
49ers @ Redskins
Packers @ Chargers
Browns @ Texans
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Buccaneers @ Saints
Rams @ Cardinals

Wrong:

Dolphins @ Chiefs
Maybe the Dolphins aren't that awful? Looking back, there's been a few games where they've been close (or even leading) in the 4th quarter, but just not able to get to a win. Whereas the Chiefs are clearly not as good as their (now former) 4-game winning streak. Anyone who had the Chiefs penciled in to contend for the AFC West needs to get their erasers out.
Giants @ Patriots
The Patriots haven't scored more than 20 points in their last 3 games, which is putting more pressure on their defense than it can really stand—they've only held their opponent under 20 points twice this season. And even the Giants can score well into the 20s when they get 4 extra chances at the ball.
Jets @ Bills
Virtually every one of the Bills' wins this season have come against teams having a major melt-down for at least some of the game. When they've played good teams that played solidly for 60 minutes (as in this game), they just haven't won.
Broncos @ Raiders
If you're playing the Tebow-lead Broncos, don't you stack up 9 guys against the run, and let your two fastest corners drop back to defend against the pass? Tim Tebow had 124 yards passing, mostly on 4 completions. If the Raiders defense stops the run, and they don't make any big mistakes on offense or special teams, they win easily. But the Broncos put up 299 yards rushing, Carson Palmer threw 3 interceptions, and special teams gave up an 85 yard punt return touchdown.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-1, SRS 3-0, Line 0-3)

Wow, the Line goes 0-fer on split picks this week!

Bengals (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)
The Titans played very well in the first half: on offense, 3 long drives ending with a score; on defense stifling the Bengals except for one long drive. Apparently, the Bengals were able to make some half-time adjustments and the Titans weren't, because in the second half, all that changed. The Titans only had one second-half drive longer than 24 yards, and the defense gave up two long scoring drives.
Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
As advertised, a close game, and certainly not an embarrassment for the Steelers like their week 1 matchup against the Ravens. But when their defense gives up a 92-yard touchdown drive with the game on the line, they're clearly still not up to full strength.
Bears (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)
The Bears' defense won this game for them. The Bears got out-scored 3-14 in the 3rd quarter, and appeared to be losing control of the game. But in the 4th quarter, the Bears' defense held the Eagles to 3 scoreless drives, non longer than 37 yards, which gave their offense a chance to pull back into the lead, and ultimately win the game.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 9-570-43-161.8%
SRS 10-472-41-163.6%
Line 7-776-38-066.7%

Monday, November 7, 2011

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Packers1.1299
(LW × 1.0180)
8-0Won by 7
@ Chargers
2 (-)49ers1.0626
(LW × 0.9977)
7-1Won by 8
@ Redskins
3 (↑2)Lions1.0360
(LW × 0.9975)
6-2Bye
4 (↑2)Ravens1.0218
(LW × 1.0184)
6-2Won by 3
@ Steelers
5 (↑2)Bengals0.9977
(LW × 1.0061)
6-2Won by 7
@ Titans
6 (↓2)Patriots0.9839
(LW × 0.9458)
5-3Lost by 4
vs Giants
7 (↑2)Falcons0.9775
(LW × 1.0142)
5-3Won by 24
@ Colts
8 (↑4)Bears0.9735
(LW × 1.0213)
5-3Won by 6
@ Eagles
9 (↑1)Saints0.9703
(LW × 1.0088)
6-3Won by 11
vs Buccaneers
10 (↓2)Steelers0.9541
(LW × 0.9833)
6-3Lost by 3
vs Ravens
11 (↑4)Jets0.9533
(LW × 1.0455)
5-3Won by 16
@ Bills
12 (↓9)Bills0.9522
(LW × 0.9087)
5-3Lost by 16
vs Jets
13 (-)Texans0.9518
(LW × 1.0035)
6-3Won by 18
vs Browns
14 (↓3)Eagles0.9314
(LW × 0.9729)
3-5Lost by 6
vs Bears
15 (↓1)Cowboys0.9293
(LW × 0.9954)
4-4Won by 10
vs Seahawks
16 (↑5)Giants0.9024
(LW × 1.0341)
6-2Won by 4
@ Patriots
17 (-)Chargers0.8898
(LW × 0.9823)
4-4Lost by 7
vs Packers
18 (↑1)Buccaneers0.8894
(LW × 0.9905)
4-4Lost by 11
@ Saints
19 (↑7)Broncos0.8654
(LW × 1.0486)
3-5Won by 14
@ Raiders
20 (-)Titans0.8629
(LW × 0.9798)
4-4Lost by 7
vs Bengals
21 (↑1)Vikings0.8620
(LW × 0.9913)
2-6Bye
22 (↑2)Jaguars0.8371
(LW × 1.0071)
2-6Bye
23 (-)Redskins0.8350
(LW × 0.9780)
3-5Lost by 8
vs 49ers
24 (↓8)Raiders0.8347
(LW × 0.9183)
4-4Lost by 14
vs Broncos
25 (-)Panthers0.8329
(LW × 1.0053)
2-6Bye
26 (↓8)Chiefs0.8181
(LW × 0.9078)
4-4Lost by 28
vs Dolphins
27 (-)Seahawks0.8148
(LW × 1.0002)
2-6Lost by 10
@ Cowboys
28 (-)Cardinals0.8021
(LW × 1.0018)
2-6Won by 6
vs Rams
29 (↑2)Dolphins0.7954
(LW × 1.0727)
1-7Won by 28
@ Chiefs
30 (↓1)Browns0.7818
(LW × 0.9781)
3-5Lost by 18
@ Texans
31 (↓1)Rams0.7624
(LW × 1.0106)
1-7Lost by 6
@ Cardinals
32 (-)Colts0.7122
(LW × 0.9706)
0-9Lost by 24
vs Falcons

Comments:

  • APR continues to be very impressed with the Packers. But their defense sure gives up a lot of yards, and you'd think a 21-point lead would be safer than it seemed last Sunday.

  • Can the Bengals really be a top 5 team? Other than the Bills, they haven't beat much of anyone. But... well, givent the teams below them, how far down should they go? They're at least top 10, for lack of competition.

  • The Giants move up nicely on their win over the Patriots, but they're still the lowest-ranked team with a winning record, and they still have a lot of tough games left on their schedule.

  • The Eagles are the highest ranked team with a losing record (ahead of the afore-mentioned Giants). Even if they do have a relatively easy schedule, they're not all cake-walks, and with just 3 wins in 8 games, it becomes questionable how many of those remaining are really winnable.

Friday, November 4, 2011

NFL Q2 Strength of Schedule

APR's second quarter strength of schedule results, as computed using week 8's power index values. Both the strength of schedule for unplayed (on the left) and played (on the right) games is presented.

As usual, a higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

RankTeamSOS
unplayed
RankSOS
played
1Giants0.9712320.8469
2Chargers0.9541220.8804
3Dolphins0.9535200.8975
4Lions0.9512100.9238
5Vikings0.948090.9246
6Broncos0.935970.9329
7Packers0.9299240.8762
8Bears0.921420.9486
9Buccaneers0.916860.9348
10Jets0.9150190.9043
11Browns0.9145280.8692
12Chiefs0.9144180.9103
13Colts0.9126140.9170
14Saints0.9123260.8749
15Panthers0.9113160.9134
16Raiders0.9111120.9206
17Titans0.9068290.8681
18Redskins0.9067230.8801
19Steelers0.9066250.8760
20Bengals0.8986310.8662
21Cardinals0.8961210.8851
22Rams0.895710.9529
23Seahawks0.8911130.9185
24Ravens0.8904300.8679
25Falcons0.876440.9377
26Eagles0.8761110.9215
27Bills0.872380.9302
28Cowboys0.869230.9397
29Patriots0.8667170.9129
30Texans0.8622270.8735
31Jaguars0.853650.9354
3249ers0.8432150.9153

Comments:

  • If this is anything close to reality, the Giants are going to have a tough time hanging on to first place in the NFC East. They have a double-whammy of a very tough schedule remaining, along with two division opponents (the Eagles and Cowboys) with very easy remaining schedules.

  • Yeah, things are looking pretty grim for the Dolphins right now. Their best chance to avoid 0-16 will come a week from Sunday when they face the "Beck or Grossman?" Redskins.

  • Every team remaining on the Packers' schedule has a winning record except for the Vikings. On the other hand, the Lions and Giants are the only teams better than 4-3, so it's not that bad.

  • The NFL seems to have back-loaded a lot of divisional games. The 49ers have only played one so far, which means more than half of their remaining games will be against the NFC West teams that are a combined 4-17.

  • The AFC East could actually come down to the wire in a race between the Bills and Patriots. They don't play their rematch game until week 17.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

NFL Week 9 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Falcons @
Colts
Falcons
ρ=1.3135
Falcons*
δ=19.9
Falcons
-7½
49ers @
Redskins
49ers
ρ=1.2476
49ers*
δ=16.0
49ers
-3
Packers @
Chargers
Packers
ρ=1.2253
Packers*
δ=15.4
Packers
-7
Dolphins @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.2154
Chiefs
δ=2.6
Chiefs
-5
Giants @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1922
Patriots
δ=7.9
Patriots
-8½
Browns @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1866
Texans
δ=13.3
Texans
-11
Jets @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.1492
Bills
δ=6.8
Bills
-1
Seahawks @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1461
Cowboys
δ=9.5
Cowboys
-12½
Bengals @
Titans
Bengals
ρ=1.1260
Bengals*
δ=7.6
Titans
-2
Broncos @
Raiders
Raiders*
ρ=1.1014
Raiders
δ=5.7
Raiders
-7½
Buccaneers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0712
Saints
δ=9.5
Saints
-8½
Rams @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.0613
Cardinals
δ=4.3
Cardinals
-3½
Ravens @
Steelers
Ravens*
ρ=1.0341
Ravens*
δ=6.2
Steelers
-3
Bears @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.0044
Bears*
δ=1.7
Eagles
-8

Bye: Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Vikings

Comments:

  • The Packers are 8-1 all time vs. the Chargers. The Chargers are going to have to play a lot better than they did last week to have a chance to make that 8-2.

  • What happened to that awful Chiefs team that lost a combined 89-10 the first two games of the season? They haven't been beating the class of the NFL, but early on, they didn't look like they could beat anybody.

  • Everybody likes the Bills to beat the Jets (barely, in the case of the Line). Of course, if the Jets run defense is still broken, Fred Jackson could have a field day, which would let Ryan Fitzpatrick stick to the easy checkdowns, and stay away from Revis Island.

  • Steven Jackson had been struggling this season, with only one game over 70 yards through week 7. One of the reasons the Rams were able to beat the Saints in week 8 was Jackson's 159 rushing yards. If he even comes close to a repeat performance, the Cardinals are going to have a very tough time getting their second win of the season.

  • One reason the Giants are 5-2? Eli Manning has (pretty quietly I think) been having a very good year. A 64.6% completion rate, averaging nearly 300 yards/game, with 13 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. That's a noticable improvement over last year, especially on interceptions.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

NFL Week 8 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 8 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+12)
The Giants barely beat perhaps the worst team in the league (at home, too), and ESPN moves them up 2 spots? Factor in the awful game they had against the Seahawks a few weeks ago, and they really don't seem like a top-10 team to me. With a very tough stretch of their schedule coming up, we should have a pretty good idea of how good (or bad) this team is by early December.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than +5 (Steelers, Browns)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:
Cowboys (-7), Bengals (-7)

NFL Week 8 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

For the picks that went wrong this week, there's definitely an "everything you know is wrong" theme.

Unanimous Picks (8-3)

Right:
Lions @ Broncos
Bengals @ Seahawks
Browns @ 49ers
Cardinals @ Ravens
Redskins @ Bills
Colts @ Titans
Dolphins @ Giants
Jaguars @ Texans

Wrong:

Saints @ Rams
For the second time in 3 games, Drew Brees has had a bad game (2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions). The Saints defense hasn't been doing well either—they've allowed 26+ points in five games, including all three losses.
Patriots @ Steelers
The Patriots apparently left their juggernaught offense at home for this game. They only had three drives longer than 18 yards, and only one of those ended with a touchdown. This is made all the more surprising by the fact that the Patriots didn't have any interceptions, and only that one fumble at the end of the game. In spite of the gaudy passing stats that Brady has been putting up, this seems like one of the weakest Patriot squads we've seen since Brady took over from Drew Bledsoe.
Chargers @ Chiefs
The Chargers botched this game in just about every way possible: 3 sacks, 105 penalty yards, 2 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles. Somehow they were still in it, with a chance to take a 3-point lead late in the 4th quarter, until that second lost fumble. Given the state of the AFC West, I wouldn't bet 2¢ on any of those teams to win it right now.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-1, SRS 0-2, Line 1-1)

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
This was easily the worst game the Cowboys have played since Wade Philips was on the sidelines. The defense couldn't stop anything (the Eagles scored on their first 6 drives, none shorter than 58 yards), and the offense just couldn't get started, not producing a drive longer than 28 yards until deep into garbage time. I'm not sure how much to credit (or blame) either team for the outcome of this game, but I'll be a lot less interested in arguing that the Cowboys are underrated right now.
Vikings (APR) @ Panthers (SRS, Line)
A close game, as advertised. One thing that stands out as a difference maker: the Vikings defense produced two turnovers that the offense converted into touchdowns, while the Panthers defense only produced one turnover, and their offense fumbled the ball away on the ensuing drive.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 9-461-38-161.5%
SRS 8-562-37-162.5%
Line 9-469-31-069.0%