| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.3108 | Packers δ=13.9 | Packers -14 |
| Ravens @ Seahawks | Ravens ρ=1.2540 | Ravens* δ=15.6 | Ravens -6½ |
| Giants @ 49ers | 49ers ρ=1.1775 | 49ers δ=11.4 | 49ers -3 |
| Jaguars @ Colts | Jaguars ρ=1.1753 | Jaguars* δ=13.0 | Jaguars -3 |
| Cardinals @ Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.1613 | Eagles δ=10.5 | Eagles -14 |
| Texans @ Buccaneers | Texans ρ=1.0702 | Texans* δ=8.4 | Texans -3 |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Chargers* ρ=1.0660 | Chargers δ=2.9 | Chargers -7 |
| Lions @ Bears | Lions ρ=1.0642 | Lions* δ=4.4 | Bears -2½ |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Broncos ρ=1.0578 | Broncos* δ=4.9 | Chiefs -3 |
| Redskins @ Dolphins | Redskins ρ=1.0497 | Redskins* δ=2.4 | Dolphins -4 |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.0458 | Bengals δ=0.4 | Steelers -3 |
| Titans @ Panthers | Titans ρ=1.0361 | Panthers δ=2.9 | Panthers -3 |
| Patriots @ Jets | Patriots* ρ=1.0321 | Patriots* δ=0.0 | Jets -1 |
| Rams @ Browns | Browns* ρ=1.0255 | Browns δ=1.9 | Browns -2½ |
| Bills @ Cowboys | Bills ρ=1.0246 | Bills* δ=3.1 | Cowboys -5 |
| Saints @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.0074 | Saints* δ=4.2 | Saints -1 |
Comments:
This week is acually one of the best remaining chances the Colts have to get a win this season. The Panthers (#25) are their only remaining opponent ranked lower than the Jaguars (#22).
The Dolphins are favored to win a game! Looking back, I'm not sure the Line is wrong here. Even when the Redskins were winning, they barely got by against some bad teams (Cardinals, Rams), and they haven't finished within 7 points of a win in more than a month. I'm not ready to hop on the Dolphins bandwagon after one win, but this does seem like a game they can win.
The Buccaneers 4-2 start is going to seem like a long time ago if they can't pull out a home win against the Texans this week. With a trip to Green Bay as a follow-up, they could find themselves in a 4-6 hole, and likely out of the playoffs very easily.
The Bears are another team backed into a corner. They've already lost once to the Lions, so a loss this week will mean a season sweep, and almost certainly lock the Bears into a 3rd-place finish in the NFC North. If the Bears win, both teams will be at 6-3, and the Bears will have a much better chance to contend for a wildcard spot down the stretch.
Last week, the Patriots lost at home for the first time since Matt Cassel was subbing for an injured Tom Brady. If they lose again this week, it will be the first 3-game losing streak since the 2002 season. I wonder how close Bill Bellichick is to being on the hot seat? It's been 4 years since the Patriots have won a playoff game, and 7 years since thier last Super Bowl win...
