Wednesday, November 27, 2013

NFL Week 13 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Patriots @
Texans
Patriots
ρ=1.3174
Patriots*
δ=13.3
Patriots
-9
Buccaneers @
Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.2539
Panthers
δ=12.8
Panthers
-8
Raiders @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1848
Cowboys
δ=9.0
Cowboys
-9½
Rams @
49ers
49ers*
ρ=1.1394
49ers
δ=7.0
49ers
-8½
Broncos @
Chiefs
Broncos
ρ=1.0936
Broncos*
δ=5.3
Broncos
-4½
Bears @
Vikings
Bears
ρ=1.0895
Bears*
δ=5.9
Vikings
-1½
Dolphins @
Jets
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0711
Dolphins*
δ=8.2
Jets
-1½
Packers @
Lions
Lions*
ρ=1.0543
Packers*
δ=0.6
Lions
-5½
Cardinals @
Eagles
Cardinals
ρ=1.0541
Cardinals*
δ=4.2
Eagles
-3
Jaguars @
Browns
Browns*
ρ=1.0537
Browns
δ=8.3
Browns
-7
Falcons @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.0488
Bills
δ=1.3
Bills
-3½
Titans @
Colts
Colts*
ρ=1.0407
Colts
δ=1.3
Colts
-4
Steelers @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0089
Ravens
δ=2.7
Ravens
-3
Saints @
Seahawks
Saints*
ρ=1.0004
Seahawks
δ=0.9
Seahawks
-6

Bye: Chargers, Giants, Redskins, Bengals

Update: Somehow missed picks for Bengals @ Chargers, as well as Giants @ Redskins. Picks are as shown below:

GameAPRSRSLine
Giants @
Redskins
Giants
ρ=1.1016
Giants*
δ=2.7
Giants
-1
Bengals @
Chargers
Bengals*
ρ=1.0444
Bengals*
δ=4.9
Chargers
-1

Comments:

  • Does Broncos -4½ make sense? It's not an absolute lock, but the winner will have the inside track for the division, and probably the AFC's #1 seed. If the Chiefs lose, they'll be (with the head-to-head tie breaker going to the Broncos) 2 games behind with 4 to play. This is a game where the Chiefs have to leave everything they've got on the field.

  • And, of course, Saints @ Seahawks is likely for the NFC's #1 seed (assuming that the Saints can stay head of the resurgent Panthers, anyway). Given how ordinary the Saints have been on the road, and how tough (for the most part) the Seahawks have been at home, this should be a relatively easy win for the Seahawks.

  • Are the Bears really that bad that they're not favored against the Vikings? Of course, the Vikings played the Bears to a 1-point loss in Chicago week 2, so maybe that answers my question right there.

  • Somehow, in spite of the fact that the Packers have gone 0-3-1 since Aaron Rodgers got hurt, they're still just a half game out of the lead in the divsion. If they beat the Lions (and the Bears lose to the Vikings), they'll actually have it.

  • Matt Flynn gave the Packers' offense more life than they've shown since Rodgers got hurt. If the Packers' defense can actually show some life, they might have a chance to make this a game.

  • Of course, even if the Packers do somehow manage to win the NFC North, I think their weak defense (once again) is a flaw that will prevent them from advancing past the divisional round.

  • I think I like the pick of the Cardinals to upset the Eagles this week. The Eagles' offense haven't faced as tough a defense all season. And Carson Palmer has rather quitely put together a nice 4 game streak with passer ratings of 93.4 or better. He's not going to be mistaken for one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, but he's definitely been playing to a level that makes it a lot easier for the Cardinals to win.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

NFL Week 12 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bears (+7)
APR dropped the Bears 9 spots on their blow-out loss to the Rams, which might be a little harsh. On the other hand, the Bears have gone 3-5 since their 3-0 start. They just haven't been playing very good football since September.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than the Browns (+5) and Packers (+5).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble
Nobody closer than the Rams (-5) and Giants (-5)

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-4-1)

Right:

Saints @ Falcons
Panthers @ Dolphins
49ers @ Redskins
Jets @ Ravens

Wrong:

Buccaneers @ Lions
The Bucs QB Mike Glennon (14/21, 247 yards and 2 tds) had a really good day passing, and Matt Stafford (26/46, 297 yards, 3 tds and 4 ints) did not. I said this before, but the Buccaneers are not as bad as their 8-loss record would suggest, and now that Glennon is starting to have some good games, they're really a much tougher team to beat.
Chargers @ Chiefs
The Chiefs held the Chargers to just 10 points in the first half, but then allowed 31 second half points, nearly all coming on sustained drives. Really a stunning breakdown for a team with a defense that had pretty much carried them to a 9-0 record.
Jaguars @ Texans
The Texans and the Raiders are the only teams this season not to score at least 24 points on the Jaguars. The Texans had 7 drives that didn't go 10 yards. At this point, I have to wonder if there's any team in the leage the Texans could beat.
Broncos @ Patriots
The Broncos used turnovers to sprint out to a 17-0 lead. But Peyton Manning (19/36, 150 yards, 2 td and 1 int) had a bad day passing, so when Knowshon Moreno wasn't on the field, their offense pretty much dried up. And when the Patriots stopped turning the ball over, they started scoring points, and the Broncos didn't have enough to hold their lead for 2 quarters and overtime.
Vikings @ Packers (Tie)
Christian ponder threw for 233 yards and a touchdown, Peterson and Gerhart (!) combined for another 237 yards on the ground. Twice the Vikings started a drive inside their own 5 yard line, and twice they drove for a field goal. The Packers have a really bad defense.

Split Picks: (APR 4-1, SRS 2-3, Line 2-3)

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)
The Bears had their troubles on offense (two lost fumbles and an interception), but their real trouble was on defense. The Rams put together 5 drives of at least 69 yards, all ending with scores. With their sputtering offense, the Bears didn't have a chance to keep up.
Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
Like I said in the game picks, I think the Giants weren't as good as their 4 game winning streak made them look. The Cowboys nearly managed to screw it up anyway, but they were able to control the ball well enough at the end of the game to kick a winning field goal as time expired.
Titans (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)
Well, a close game featuring a couple of mediocre teams. The normally very reliable Sebastian Janikowski missed a couple of field goals, which as much as anything was the difference in the game.
Steelers (APR) @ Browns (SRS, Line)
A big part of this was that Jason Campbell got knocked out of the game early, and Brandon Weeden continues to look like something other than an NFL quarterback. The Steelers didn't have a great day offensively, but with all the mistakes the Browns made, including a pick 6 and a lost fumble returned deep in their own end, the Steelers had enough for an easy win.
Colts (SRS) @ Caridnals (APR, Line)
The Colts offense really hasn't looked good since Reggie Wayne got hurt, and this game was another good example. The Colts only had one drive longer than 40 yards until deep into garbage time, and Andrew Luck had a pretty miserable day passing. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer seems to be settling into his role as game manager, and the Cardinals are looking less and less like an easy win for their opponents.

Totals

Thanks to correctly picking a three road dogs, APR is the only one with a winning record this week.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 8- 5-1 90-69-156.9%
SRS 6- 7-1 94-65-159.4%
Line 6- 7-1 96-63-160.7%

Monday, November 25, 2013

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.0721
(LW × 0.9750)
9-2Lost by 3
@ Patriots
2 (↑2)Panthers1.0662
(LW × 1.0351)
8-3Won by 4
@ Dolphins
3 (↓1)Saints1.0488
(LW × 0.9961)
9-2Won by 4
@ Falcons
4 (↑1)Seahawks1.0484
(LW × 1.0266)
10-1Bye
5 (↑1)49ers1.0326
(LW × 1.0464)
7-4Won by 21
@ Redskins
6 (↑1)Patriots1.0101
(LW × 1.0276)
8-3Won by 3
vs Broncos
7 (↓4)Chiefs0.9803
(LW × 0.9491)
9-2Lost by 3
vs Chargers
8 (↑5)Cardinals0.9737
(LW × 1.0523)
7-4Won by 29
vs Colts
9 (↓1)Bengals0.9591
(LW × 0.9775)
7-4Bye
10 (↓1)Cowboys0.9547
(LW × 0.9952)
6-5Won by 3
@ Giants
11 (-)Eagles0.9237
(LW × 0.9839)
6-5Bye
12 (↑6)Chargers0.9183
(LW × 1.0256)
5-6Won by 3
@ Chiefs
13 (↑1)Colts0.9104
(LW × 0.9842)
6-4Lost by 29
@ Cardinals
14 (↑7)Rams0.9063
(LW × 1.0580)
5-6Won by 21
vs Bears
15 (↓5)Lions0.9038
(LW × 0.9461)
6-5Lost by 3
vs Buccaneers
16 (-)Ravens0.8912
(LW × 0.9926)
5-6Won by 16
vs Jets
17 (↑3)Steelers0.8833
(LW × 1.0307)
5-6Won by 16
@ Browns
18 (↓1)Giants0.8785
(LW × 0.9790)
4-7Lost by 3
vs Cowboys
19 (↑4)Titans0.8748
(LW × 1.0216)
5-5Won by 4
@ Raiders
20 (↓1)Dolphins0.8731
(LW × 1.0069)
5-6Lost by 4
vs Panthers
21 (↓9)Bears0.8721
(LW × 0.9413)
6-5Lost by 21
@ Rams
22 (↓7)Packers0.8572
(LW × 0.9542)
5-5-1Tied
vs Vikings
23 (↑5)Buccaneers0.8503
(LW × 1.0532)
3-8Won by 3
@ Lions
24 (↓2)Bills0.8461
(LW × 0.9879)
4-7Bye
25 (-)Jets0.8152
(LW × 0.9813)
5-6Lost by 16
@ Ravens
26 (↑5)Falcons0.8067
(LW × 1.0334)
2-9Lost by 4
vs Saints
27 (-)Raiders0.8058
(LW × 0.9793)
4-7Lost by 4
vs Titans
28 (↑1)Vikings0.8005
(LW × 0.9965)
2-8-1Tied
@ Packers
29 (↓3)Redskins0.7975
(LW × 0.9664)
3-8Lost by 21
vs 49ers
30 (↓6)Browns0.7963
(LW × 0.9380)
4-7Lost by 16
vs Steelers
31 (↓1)Texans0.7667
(LW × 0.9692)
2-9Lost by 7
vs Jaguars
32 (-)Jaguars0.7557
(LW × 1.0595)
2-9Won by 7
@ Texans

Comments:

  • You know, when I predicted the Chiefs would probably cover their 5 point spread, I was assuming that their defense wasn't going to give up 41 points. Wow.

  • Sunday's Vikings-Packers matchup becomes the second game under the new rules where both teams scored in the overtime period (the first happened last year).

  • A few years ago, I noted the NFL has had a pretty regular rate of about 1 tie game every 5 years. Now we've had two in as many years. Maybe it's a coincidence, but I suspect the new overtime rules (which came into play in Sunday's tie) will result in rate of tie games increasing. We'll see. It may be a relatively small effect, in which case, it could be a while before it becomes clearly apparent.

  • With the Broncos and Patriots both suffering ugly losses on Sunday, I'm not sure there's a team in the league without at least one glaring flaw. We may have another situation like last year, where a Ravens-like team stumbles into the playoffs, gets on a hot streak, and powers their way to a surprise Super Bowl win.

  • I reckon you can add the Texans to the list of teams that have given up on the season. It's pretty bad when you can't even score 7 points on the Jaguars.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

NFL Week 12 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Saints @
Falcons
Saints
ρ=1.3487
Saints*
δ=16.0
Saints
-7½
49ers @
Redskins
49ers
ρ=1.1959
49ers*
δ=14.4
49ers
-5
Panthers @
Dolphins
Panthers
ρ=1.1878
Panthers*
δ=11.0
Panthers
-4½
Buccaneers @
Lions
Lions
ρ=1.1832
Lions
δ=3.4
Lions
-9½
Chargers @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.1535
Chiefs
δ=8.1
Chiefs
-5
Broncos @
Patriots
Broncos
ρ=1.1185
Broncos*
δ=7.4
Broncos
-2½
Vikings @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.1184
Packers
δ=8.5
Packers
-4½
Jaguars @
Texans
Texans*
ρ=1.1092
Texans
δ=9.3
Texans
-10
Bears @
Rams
Bears
ρ=1.0816
Bears*
δ=1.1
Rams
-1
Jets @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0808
Ravens
δ=7.2
Ravens
-4
Cowboys @
Giants
Cowboys
ρ=1.0691
Cowboys*
δ=7.0
Giants
-2½
Titans @
Raiders
Titans
ρ=1.0407
Titans*
δ=6.0
Raiders
-1
Steelers @
Browns
Steelers*
ρ=1.0095
Browns
δ=0.4
Browns
-1
Colts @
Cardinals
Cardinals*
ρ=1.0004
Colts*
δ=2.2
Cardinals
-1

Bye: Eagles, Bills, Seahawks, Bengals

Comments:

  • The Lions have a tendancy to flop against teams they should really beat (like, say, last week against the Steelers). They're probably safe against the Bucs at home, but 9½ points still seems like a lot to give.

  • On the other hand, I kinda feel like the Chiefs are gonna demolish the Chargers, especially playing that home. I think it will only take one special teams or defensive touchdown to beat that 5 point spread.

  • The Patriots don't often lose two in a row, they don't often lose at home, and they don't often lose to Peyton Manning. Maybe everyone's right to pick the Broncos here, but this feels like a low-confidence pick to me.

  • Can the Packers finally get a win without Rodgers this week? They're playing at home, against one of the worst teams in the league. If they can beat anybody, they can win this one.

  • The Texans should be able to beat the Jaguars. But I said that last week, too. They just really seem like a team that's forgotten how to win. Maybe they can beat the lowly Jaguars, but I'm not sure I'd want to give 10 points on that.

  • I can't really get a read on the Rams this season. Sometimes they seem like the same old (i.e. bad) Rams, and sometimes they come out and blow the doors of a team like the Colts. I feel like this is a game the Bears should be able to win, but the Bears and Rams both have been so inconsistent this season, I think it could go either way.

  • The Giants are playing at home, and working on a 4 game winning streak. On the other hand, those 4 wins have come against some pretty weak opponents. If the Cowboys can put together a solid game, I think they have a good chance for an upset.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

NFL Week 11 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 11 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Jets (+9)
Another crushing road loss for the Jets brings their respective APR and ESPN rankings one place closer together. Maybe #25 is too low for a 5-5 team, but for a team that's 4-1 at home, they are really, really bad on the road.
Colts (+7)
APR and ESPN both hold the Colts steady on their bye week. Nothing to add beyond what I wrote last week about the Colts.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than the Seahawks (+3)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble
Nobody closer than the Cowboys (-5) and Giants (-5)

NFL Week 11 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-3)

Right:

Cardinals @ Jaguars
Colts @ Titans
Browns @ Bengals
Redskins @ Eagles
Ravens @ Bears
Vikings @ Seahawks
49ers @ Saints
Chiefs @ Broncos
Patroits @ Panthers

Wrong:

Raiders @ Texans
A lot of the blame for the Texans' problems has focused on their quarterback situation (and it wasn't any better in this game, Case Keenum got benched for Matt Schaub). But for a team that supposedly has a good defense, it wasn't much in evidence in this game. First time starter Matt McGloin threw for 197 yards and 3 touchdowns, Rashad Jennings ran for 150 yards, and the Texans are left looking for scapegoats.
Lions @ Steelers
The Lions' defense just had an awful game, giving up 367 yards passing and 4 touchdowns, no turnovers and just one sack. The Lions 27-point 2nd quarter gave them a half time lead, but they didn't score any points after that, and it wasn't enough to last through the end of the game.
Chargers @ Dolphins
This was a close game against a couple of pretty inconsistent teams. One thing that stands out to me is inability of the Chargers to score points. They join the Browns as the only team (so far) not to score at least 20 points on the Dolphins. The Chargers' offense generates a lot of yards (including 435 in this game), but they don't seem to be converting them into the points they need to win.

Split Picks: (APR 0-3, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Jets (APR, Line) @ Bills (SRS)
Wow, the Jets really do stink on the road. Geno Smith threw 3 interceptions, lost a fumble, and was sacked 4 times. I know home field advantage is a real thing, but this is ridiculous.
Packers (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)
Scott Tolzien did pretty okay, but three interceptions, including a game-breaking pick 6 in the 4th quarter, were just more than the Packers could overcome.
Falcons (APR, Line) @ Buccaneers (SRS)
The Buccaneers are really not as bad as their 8-loss record, but I think the Falcons are a team that has just given up on their season. They played a lot better than this earlier in the season.

Totals

At least the unanimous picks went well this week. And SRS has almost caught up to the Line!

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 9- 6 82-6456.2%
SRS 11- 4 88-5860.3%
Line 10- 5 90-5661.6%

Monday, November 18, 2013

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.0995
(LW × 1.0231)
9-1Won by 10
vs Chiefs
2 (-)Saints1.0529
(LW × 1.0087)
8-2Won by 3
vs 49ers
3 (-)Chiefs1.0329
(LW × 0.9983)
9-1Lost by 10
@ Broncos
4 (↑1)Panthers1.0300
(LW × 1.0206)
7-3Won by 4
vs Patriots
5 (↓1)Seahawks1.0213
(LW × 0.9995)
10-1Won by 21
vs Vikings
6 (↑1)49ers0.9869
(LW × 1.0110)
6-4Lost by 3
@ Saints
7 (↑1)Patriots0.9830
(LW × 1.0095)
7-3Lost by 4
@ Panthers
8 (↑1)Bengals0.9812
(LW × 1.0141)
7-4Won by 21
vs Browns
9 (↑1)Cowboys0.9593
(LW × 1.0042)
5-5Bye
10 (↓4)Lions0.9553
(LW × 0.9607)
6-4Lost by 10
@ Steelers
11 (↑4)Eagles0.9389
(LW × 1.0278)
6-5Won by 8
vs Redskins
12 (-)Bears0.9265
(LW × 0.9994)
6-4Won by 3
vs Ravens
13 (-)Cardinals0.9253
(LW × 1.0004)
6-4Won by 13
@ Jaguars
14 (-)Colts0.9250
(LW × 1.0059)
6-3Bye
15 (↓4)Packers0.8984
(LW × 0.9554)
5-5Lost by 14
@ Giants
16 (-)Ravens0.8978
(LW × 1.0002)
4-6Lost by 3
@ Bears
17 (↑6)Giants0.8973
(LW × 1.0565)
4-6Won by 14
vs Packers
18 (↓1)Chargers0.8954
(LW × 1.0028)
4-6Lost by 4
@ Dolphins
19 (-)Dolphins0.8672
(LW × 1.0117)
5-5Won by 4
vs Chargers
20 (↑6)Steelers0.8569
(LW × 1.0547)
4-6Won by 10
vs Lions
21 (↓1)Rams0.8567
(LW × 1.0011)
4-6Bye
22 (↑2)Bills0.8565
(LW × 1.0340)
4-7Won by 23
vs Jets
23 (↓2)Titans0.8563
(LW × 1.0014)
4-5Bye
24 (↓6)Browns0.8489
(LW × 0.9806)
4-6Lost by 21
@ Bengals
25 (↓3)Jets0.8307
(LW × 0.9774)
5-5Lost by 23
@ Bills
26 (↓1)Redskins0.8252
(LW × 1.0012)
3-7Lost by 8
@ Eagles
27 (↑3)Raiders0.8228
(LW × 1.0347)
4-6Won by 5
@ Texans
28 (↑3)Buccaneers0.8073
(LW × 1.0224)
2-8Won by 13
vs Falcons
29 (↓1)Vikings0.8033
(LW × 0.9969)
2-8Lost by 21
@ Seahawks
30 (↓3)Texans0.7911
(LW × 0.9805)
2-8Lost by 5
vs Raiders
31 (↓2)Falcons0.7807
(LW × 0.9785)
2-8Lost by 13
@ Buccaneers
32 (-)Jaguars0.7132
(LW × 1.0079)
1-9Lost by 13
vs Cardinals

Comments:

  • Impressive win by the Broncos Sunday night. Although I wonder if they can win the rematch. That's gonna be a whole nother game when they play at Arrowhead.

  • That rematch game is gonna be huge. It'll be for the AFC West, and most likely, the #1 seed in the AFC as well.

  • I thought the 49ers did surprisingly well against the Saints on Sunday. The bad news is, it's still a loss, and probably puts the NFC West out of reach for them. They're also just barely hanging onto the 6th seed right now, and with the Seahawks still on their remaining schedule, might not make it to 10 wins this season.

  • Thanks to the Lions losing, the Packers (and the Bears) are just a game out of first place in the NFC North. Tolzien has actually looked like he could develop into a solid QB. The problem is, the Packers' can't afford any more "developing" games out of him. They need to start winning if they're going to stay within reach of the division.

  • The Panthers had a very impressive win Monday night against a perennial AFC power. At this point, I'll be really surprised if they miss the playoffs this year. And the way they're playing, the NFC South may not be decided before the week 16 Saints @ Panthers matchup.

  • Another team that's been quietly playing a bit better than their reputation is the Cardinals. A 3 game winning streak has raised them to 6-4, and it's not out of the question for them to get to 10 wins this season, especially if they can beat the visiting Colts next Sunday.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

NFL Week 11 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Cardinals @
Jaguars
Cardinals
ρ=1.3071
Cardinals*
δ=18.0
Cardinals
-6½
Vikings @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.2679
Seahawks
δ=16.5
Seahawks
-13
Lions @
Steelers
Lions
ρ=1.2238
Lions*
δ=8.6
Lions
-1
Browns @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1176
Bengals
δ=6.2
Bengals
-5½
Redskins @
Eagles
Eagles*
ρ=1.1082
Eagles
δ=5.7
Eagles
-3
Packers @
Giants
Packers
ρ=1.1071
Packers*
δ=10.5
Giants
-6
Colts @
Titans
Colts
ρ=1.0754
Colts*
δ=3.6
Colts
-3
49ers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0693
Saints
δ=1.5
Saints
-3
Chargers @
Dolphins
Chargers
ρ=1.0417
Chargers*
δ=0.1
Chargers
-1
Chiefs @
Broncos
Broncos*
ρ=1.0387
Broncos
δ=4.2
Broncos
-7½
Patriots @
Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.0364
Panthers
δ=5.9
Panthers
-1
Ravens @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0328
Bears
δ=1.5
Bears
-2½
Jets @
Bills
Jets*
ρ=1.0261
Bills
δ=2.5
Bills
-1
Raiders @
Texans
Texans*
ρ=1.0146
Texans
δ=2.4
Texans
-7
Falcons @
Buccaneers
Falcons
ρ=1.0103
Buccaneers
δ=0.2
Falcons
-1

Bye: Rams, Cowboys

Comments:

  • Another week of lots of agreement. Hopefully that doesn't mean yet another week of upsets.

  • According to pfr, the Packers haven't been 6-point underdogs since 2011 (they were 5-point underdogs week 1 at the 49ers this season). Maybe they can get Tolzien and/or Flynn coached up enough in time to make a difference, but right now it looks like the Packers' season is in a tailspin.

  • Another surprise to lay on someone if you time travel back to August. The Panthers are favored over the Patriots. And the way the Panthers' defense has been playing that could be a long, ugly game for the Patriots' offense.

  • The Texans are actually favored to win a game! To be fair, their losing streak has been a combination of fair-to-good opponents, injuries, and missed kicks. If they can avoid making too many mistakes, the Raiders are a team that they should be able to beat, especially at home.

  • SRS makes another rouge pick, and again, I'm not so sure it's wrong. The Buccaneers' defense will probably have to hold the Falcons under 21 points or so, but if they can do that, this is a winnable game for them.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

NFL Week 10 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 10 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Jets (+10)
ESPN moves the Jets up 2 spots on their bye, while APR drops them 1. #22 (APR) is too low for a team with a winning record, but #12 (ESPN) is too high for a team that's 1-3 on the road, and has 3 blow-out losses on their record.
Colts (+7)
I think I'm with APR on this one. The Colts' offense just hasn't been the same since Reggie Wayne got hurt. Maybe the loss to the Rams was a fluke, but they've still got some tough games coming up, and their division isn't won yet.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than the Patriots (+3) and Raiders (+3)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble
Nobody closer than the Cowboys (-5)

NFL Week 10 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-7)

Right:

Seahawks @ Falcons
Broncos @ Chargers
Lions @ Bears
Texans @ Cardinals
Cowboys @ Saints

Wrong:

Jaguars @ Titans
The Jaguars defense had their best game of the year, generating 3 critical turnovers, a safety, and (for the most part) holding the Titans offense in check. The offense didn't have an amazing game, but they did enough (including converting turnovers into points) to, for the first time this season, come out on the winning end.
Rams @ Colts
If there's anything that went right for the Colts in this game, it isn't apparent from the box scores. They gave up touchdowns on offense, defense, and special teams. What stands out the most is that the Colts' offense mostly couldn't get sustained drives going, and when they did (with one exception) they couldn't convert them into points.
Eagles @ Packers
For the Packers, this was pretty much a nightmare repeat of last week. The starting quarterback goes out after the first series, the offense sputters the rest of the game, and the defense can't keep things in hand. It also included another embarrassing, 9 minute clock killing drive by their opponent at the end of the game.
Redskins @ Vikings
The short story here is that the Vikings, and particularly their offense, played one of their best games of the season. In spite of an early interception, Christian Ponder was 17/21, 174 yards, and a couple of touchdowns. The Vikings defense, while in no danger of winning any awards, did manage to hold the Redskins to just 3 points in the second half, and make a late goal-line stand to keep the Redskins from forcing overtime.
Bengals @ Ravens
A sloppy game by both teams. The Bengals mistakes were more costly, including a 48 yard DPI penalty that gave the Ravens the ball at the 5 yard line, and an interception returned to the 11. The Ravens converted both into touchdowns.
Raiders @ Giants
The Raiders offense is just not very good. They only had one drive in this game longer than 21 yards. Some mistakes by the Giants kept them in the game, but they just needed more offense for a win.
Dolphins @ Buccaneers
The Buccaneers finally had reasoably good play from their offense and defense for most of the same game. The Bucs' defense really shut down the Dolphins, allowing just 213 yards. Their offense still isn't that great, their defense was good enough that 22 points was enough to get their first win.

Split Picks: (APR 0-2, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
E.J. Manuel barely averaged 4 yards per attempt passing, with a 56% completion rate. The result was the Bills didn't have a drive longer than 34 yards until garbage time, and the Steelers were able to get a pretty easy win.
Panthers (SRS) @ 49ers (APR, Line)
This was an extraordiary performance on the part of the Panthers' defense. They allowed one drive longer than 17 yards (!) They had 6 sacks, an interception and a recovered fumble, and held the 49ers to 151 yards of offense. The Panthers' offense wasn't lighting things up either, but with their defense dominating, it was enough.

Totals

Another week of upsets. Nobody's happy except the underdogs.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 5- 9 73-5855.7%
SRS 6- 8 77-5458.8%
Line 6- 8 80-5161.1%

Monday, November 11, 2013

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.0747
(LW × 1.0129)
8-1Won by 8
@ Chargers
2 (↑1)Saints1.0438
(LW × 1.0197)
7-2Won by 32
vs Cowboys
3 (↓1)Chiefs1.0346
(LW × 1.0029)
9-0Bye
4 (↑1)Seahawks1.0217
(LW × 1.0185)
9-1Won by 23
@ Falcons
5 (↑6)Panthers1.0092
(LW × 1.0416)
6-3Won by 1
@ 49ers
6 (-)Lions0.9943
(LW × 0.9944)
6-3Won by 2
@ Bears
7 (↑1)49ers0.9762
(LW × 0.9883)
6-3Lost by 1
vs Panthers
8 (↑1)Patriots0.9738
(LW × 0.9953)
7-2Bye
9 (↓2)Bengals0.9676
(LW × 0.9696)
6-4Lost by 3
@ Ravens
10 (↑2)Cowboys0.9553
(LW × 0.9887)
5-5Lost by 32
@ Saints
11 (↓7)Packers0.9404
(LW × 0.9315)
5-4Lost by 14
vs Eagles
12 (↑1)Bears0.9271
(LW × 0.9810)
5-4Lost by 2
vs Lions
13 (↑1)Cardinals0.9250
(LW × 1.0092)
5-4Won by 3
vs Texans
14 (↓4)Colts0.9196
(LW × 0.9412)
6-3Lost by 30
vs Rams
15 (↑5)Eagles0.9135
(LW × 1.0632)
5-5Won by 14
@ Packers
16 (-)Ravens0.8976
(LW × 1.0006)
4-5Won by 3
vs Bengals
17 (↓2)Chargers0.8929
(LW × 0.9886)
4-5Lost by 8
vs Broncos
18 (↑1)Browns0.8657
(LW × 0.9834)
4-5Bye
19 (↓2)Dolphins0.8571
(LW × 0.9598)
4-5Lost by 3
@ Buccaneers
20 (↑7)Rams0.8557
(LW × 1.0676)
4-6Won by 30
@ Colts
21 (↓3)Titans0.8551
(LW × 0.9604)
4-5Lost by 2
vs Jaguars
22 (↓1)Jets0.8499
(LW × 0.9936)
5-4Bye
23 (↑1)Giants0.8494
(LW × 1.0259)
3-6Won by 4
vs Raiders
24 (↓2)Bills0.8283
(LW × 0.9691)
3-7Lost by 13
@ Steelers
25 (↓2)Redskins0.8243
(LW × 0.9748)
3-6Lost by 7
@ Vikings
26 (↑2)Steelers0.8125
(LW × 1.0255)
3-6Won by 13
vs Bills
27 (↓1)Texans0.8068
(LW × 1.0039)
2-7Lost by 3
@ Cardinals
28 (↑1)Vikings0.8058
(LW × 1.0201)
2-7Won by 7
vs Redskins
29 (↓4)Falcons0.7978
(LW × 0.9848)
2-7Lost by 23
vs Seahawks
30 (-)Raiders0.7952
(LW × 1.0097)
3-6Lost by 4
@ Giants
31 (-)Buccaneers0.7896
(LW × 1.0355)
1-8Won by 3
vs Dolphins
32 (-)Jaguars0.7077
(LW × 1.0533)
1-8Won by 2
@ Titans

Comments:

  • The final two 0-fer teams finally get a win. I have to say, I'm surprised that the Jaguars beat the Buccaneers to it, even of only by a day.

  • That was a pretty impressive win by the Saints. I didn't think the Cowboys would give them any trouble, but I wasn't expecting to see such a dominating performance, either.

  • If you had the Packers penciled in to win the NFC North, it's probably time to get your erasers out. By standings, they're still just a game out of first place. But the Lions have a really easy remaining schedule, and unless the Packers can win out (which right now seems really unlikely), the Lions probably have a lock on the division.

  • Thanks to a 5 game winning streak, the Panthers are now in solid contention for one of the wildcard spots, and only a game behind the Saints. With a dominating defense, and a pretty decent offense, the Panthers might be shaping up into that team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Their spot in APR's top 5 is well earned.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

NFL Week 10 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Jaguars @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.3251
Titans
δ=18.9
Titans
-11
Seahawks @
Falcons
Seahawks
ρ=1.2383
Seahawks*
δ=13.0
Seahawks
-6
Rams @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.2191
Colts
δ=11.0
Colts
-9½
Eagles @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.1750
Packers
δ=8.1
Packers
-1
Broncos @
Chargers
Broncos
ρ=1.1748
Broncos*
δ=13.1
Broncos
-7
Dolphins @
Buccaneers
Dolphins
ρ=1.1711
Dolphins*
δ=6.3
Dolphins
-2½
Texans @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.1405
Cardinals
δ=7.1
Cardinals
-1½
Bengals @
Ravens
Bengals*
ρ=1.1124
Bengals*
δ=5.8
Bengals
-1½
Bills @
Steelers
Bills
ρ=1.0788
Bills*
δ=5.3
Steelers
-3
Redskins @
Vikings
Redskins
ρ=1.0704
Redskins*
δ=3.2
Redskins
-2½
Cowboys @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.0594
Saints
δ=1.8
Saints
-6½
Lions @
Bears
Lions
ρ=1.0582
Lions*
δ=2.1
Lions
-2½
Raiders @
Giants
Giants*
ρ=1.0512
Giants
δ=0.3
Giants
-7½
Panthers @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.0194
Panthers*
δ=1.0
49ers
-6

Bye: Patriots, Browns, Chiefs, Jets

Comments:

  • Another week of mostly agreement. Hopefully the unanimous picks will go a little better this week.

  • Barring a miracle (or another disaster) Seneca Wallace will be starting for the Packers on Sunday. He should do at least somewhat better with a week's worth of practice with the starters. But I think even under the best-case scenario, the Packers' defense will have to do a lot better than they did Monday night for them to have a chance.

  • The Giants defense has not allowed any points in their last two games (their special teams did give up a couple touchdowns). I think they're going to need to keep up that same pace if they want to extend their winning streak to 3 games.

  • Once again, the Cardinals are unanimously favored to beat a preseason favorite. The good news for the Texans is, if they manage to get an 18 point lead, it will probably stick this time.

  • Picking the Panthers to upset the 49ers is not so crazy. The 49ers have't faced much in the way of competition since getting upset week 3 by the Colts. The Panthers are another team that could be better than their reputation, and the 49ers could be looking ahead to their week 11 matchup at the Saints.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

NFL: Week 9 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 9 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+8)
ESPN bumps the Colts up to the #2 spot after the Colts win over the Texans. Yeah, the come back was impressive. The fact that they fell behind 18 points to a team that hasn't won since the middle of September is not. (Nor is the fact that their comeback would've fallen short, if the Texans had any kind of a field goal kicker.)
Jets (+7)
On the one hand, the Jets have wins over the Patriots and Siants. On the other hand, they also got curb-stomped by the Bengals, Titans, and Steelers(!). I guess #14 is a justifiable ranking for a team with a 5-4 record, but at the same time, it's hard to overlook those ugly losses, even at the middle of the field.
On the bubble:
APR dropped the Raiders (+6) 9 spots after getting destroyed by the on-again, off-again Eagles. Perhaps not totally fair, but they did lose by 4 scores, at home, to what has been a mostly off-again team.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Packers (-7)
Yeah, even factoring out the Aaron Rodgers situation, APR has the Packers ranked way too high at #4. Besides getting Rodgers back, they're going to have to do a lot better on defense to get to the playoffs this year.
On the bubble
Nobody closer than the Giants (-5) and Ravens (-5).

NFL Week 9 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-6)

Right:

Chiefs @ Bills
Panthers @ Falcons
Titans @ Rams
Colts @ Texans
Vikings @ Cowboys
Buccaneers @ Seahawks
Steelers @ Patriots

Wrong:

Eagles @ Raiders
I'm tempted to credit this to a healthy Nick Foles, and a bad Raiders defense, except that Nick Foles was having a pretty bad game before he left the game against the Cowboys. But maybe Foles was hurt early in the game, well before he actually left. And the Raiders do have a bad defense.
Bears @ Packers
Of course, the headline will be the injury that took Aaron Rodgers out after the opening drive. But the real ugly part for the Packers was their defense. No turnovers, just one sack, 272 yards passing, 171 yards rushing. To cap the evening off, in the fourth quarter, they gave up an 89 yard drive that used up almost 9 minutes of game clock, which denied the Packers' offense any real chance to respond.
Bengals @ Dolphins
I think the Dolphins are (or at least can be) better than their record, and they certainly played that way in this game. Their defense had 3 interceptions, a forced fumble, 5 sacks, and the game winning safety. Their offense wasn't great, but they did enough to get them to a win.
Saints @ Jets
As I said in the game picks, the Saints just aren't the same team on the road. Drew Brees threw a couple interceptions, and the Saints could only manage a couple field goals in the second half. Meanwhile, the Jets turned those interceptions into 10 points, and along with a few other sustained drives, it was enough for the upset.
Chargers @ Redskins
I thought the Chargers were supposed to have a good offense? Only the Raiders scored fewer points on the Redskins' defense. Their defense didn't fare well either, allowing the Redskins a season-high 500 yards on offense. Perhaps Robert Griffin III is recovering more from his injury, and the Redskins are another team better than their record.
Ravens @ Browns
The Browns defense did a very good job shutting down the Ravens, allowing only two drives longer than 35 yards. And the Browns offense managed 4 scoring drives, including 3 touchdowns, which was plenty enough to put the game out of reach.

Split Picks:

None.

Totals

In spite of the unanimity, a pretty ugly week this time around.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 7- 6 68-4958.1%
SRS 7- 6 71-4660.7%
Line 7- 6 74-4363.2%

Monday, November 4, 2013

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Broncos1.0611
(LW × 0.9966)
7-1Bye
2 (↑3)Chiefs1.0317
(LW × 1.0114)
9-0Won by 10
@ Bills
3 (↑1)Saints1.0236
(LW × 0.9880)
6-2Lost by 6
@ Jets
4 (↓2)Packers1.0096
(LW × 0.9565)
5-3Lost by 7
vs Bears
5 (↓2)Seahawks1.0032
(LW × 0.9560)
8-1Won by 3
vs Buccaneers
6 (↑3)Lions0.9999
(LW × 1.0070)
5-3Bye
7 (-)Bengals0.9979
(LW × 0.9940)
6-3Lost by 2
@ Dolphins
8 (↓2)49ers0.9877
(LW × 0.9788)
6-2Bye
9 (↑2)Patriots0.9783
(LW × 1.0222)
7-2Won by 24
vs Steelers
10 (↓2)Colts0.9771
(LW × 0.9766)
6-2Won by 3
@ Texans
11 (↑1)Panthers0.9689
(LW × 1.0208)
5-3Won by 24
vs Falcons
12 (↓2)Cowboys0.9662
(LW × 0.9908)
5-4Won by 4
vs Vikings
13 (↑3)Bears0.9450
(LW × 1.0602)
5-3Won by 7
@ Packers
14 (-)Cardinals0.9166
(LW × 0.9942)
4-4Bye
15 (↓2)Chargers0.9031
(LW × 0.9780)
4-4Lost by 6
@ Redskins
16 (↓1)Ravens0.8971
(LW × 0.9862)
3-5Lost by 6
@ Browns
17 (-)Dolphins0.8931
(LW × 1.0166)
4-4Won by 2
vs Bengals
18 (-)Titans0.8903
(LW × 1.0149)
4-4Won by 7
@ Rams
19 (-)Browns0.8804
(LW × 1.0163)
4-5Won by 6
vs Ravens
20 (↑6)Eagles0.8592
(LW × 1.0516)
4-5Won by 29
@ Raiders
21 (↑3)Jets0.8553
(LW × 1.0424)
5-4Won by 6
vs Saints
22 (↓2)Bills0.8546
(LW × 0.9966)
3-6Lost by 10
vs Chiefs
23 (-)Redskins0.8456
(LW × 1.0231)
3-5Won by 6
vs Chargers
24 (↑4)Giants0.8279
(LW × 1.0285)
2-6Bye
25 (-)Falcons0.8101
(LW × 0.9895)
2-6Lost by 24
@ Panthers
26 (↑1)Texans0.8037
(LW × 0.9848)
2-6Lost by 3
vs Colts
27 (↓5)Rams0.8015
(LW × 0.9638)
3-6Lost by 7
vs Titans
28 (↑1)Steelers0.7922
(LW × 1.0003)
2-6Lost by 24
@ Patriots
29 (↑1)Vikings0.7900
(LW × 1.0341)
1-7Lost by 4
@ Cowboys
30 (↓9)Raiders0.7876
(LW × 0.9448)
3-5Lost by 29
vs Eagles
31 (-)Buccaneers0.7626
(LW × 1.0485)
0-8Lost by 3
@ Seahawks
32 (-)Jaguars0.6719
(LW × 0.9755)
0-8Bye

Comments:

If there was a theme this week, it seemed to be favored teams either losing outright, or escaping with an unimpressive win. I'll have more on the losers in a bit. As for the winners:

  • The Chiefs needed until the 3rd quarter to establish their first lead over the Bills, and didn't really put it away until late in the 4th quarter.

  • The Seahawks needed a late comeback and overtime to manage their win, but they don't seem quite as unbeatable at home any more, do they?

  • The Patriots barely managed a 3-point lead going into the 4th quarter of their game. They put the game away pretty solidly in the final period, but they really let a pretty bad Steelers team hang a round a lot longer than they should have.

  • The Cowboys struggled for nearly their whole game to etablish a lead over the (now) 1-7 Vikings. All the more notable for how thoroughly the Vikings got beat in their own stadium last Sunday.

  • The Titans had a back-and-forth game with the Rams, only pulling ahead to stay in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.

  • And the Colts managed to fall behind 21-3 at half time, before the Texans managed perhaps the most spectacular on-the-field melt down of the season so far.

  • Of the favored teams that were victorious on Sunday, only the Panthers seemed to have an easy time of it.