| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Texans | Patriots ρ=1.3174 | Patriots* δ=13.3 | Patriots -9 |
| Buccaneers @ Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.2539 | Panthers δ=12.8 | Panthers -8 |
| Raiders @ Cowboys | Cowboys ρ=1.1848 | Cowboys δ=9.0 | Cowboys -9½ |
| Rams @ 49ers | 49ers* ρ=1.1394 | 49ers δ=7.0 | 49ers -8½ |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Broncos ρ=1.0936 | Broncos* δ=5.3 | Broncos -4½ |
| Bears @ Vikings | Bears ρ=1.0895 | Bears* δ=5.9 | Vikings -1½ |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Dolphins* ρ=1.0711 | Dolphins* δ=8.2 | Jets -1½ |
| Packers @ Lions | Lions* ρ=1.0543 | Packers* δ=0.6 | Lions -5½ |
| Cardinals @ Eagles | Cardinals ρ=1.0541 | Cardinals* δ=4.2 | Eagles -3 |
| Jaguars @ Browns | Browns* ρ=1.0537 | Browns δ=8.3 | Browns -7 |
| Falcons @ Bills | Bills ρ=1.0488 | Bills δ=1.3 | Bills -3½ |
| Titans @ Colts | Colts* ρ=1.0407 | Colts δ=1.3 | Colts -4 |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.0089 | Ravens δ=2.7 | Ravens -3 |
| Saints @ Seahawks | Saints* ρ=1.0004 | Seahawks δ=0.9 | Seahawks -6 |
Bye: Chargers, Giants, Redskins, Bengals
Update: Somehow missed picks for Bengals @ Chargers, as well as Giants @ Redskins. Picks are as shown below:
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants @ Redskins | Giants ρ=1.1016 | Giants* δ=2.7 | Giants -1 |
| Bengals @ Chargers | Bengals* ρ=1.0444 | Bengals* δ=4.9 | Chargers -1 |
Comments:
Does Broncos -4½ make sense? It's not an absolute lock, but the winner will have the inside track for the division, and probably the AFC's #1 seed. If the Chiefs lose, they'll be (with the head-to-head tie breaker going to the Broncos) 2 games behind with 4 to play. This is a game where the Chiefs have to leave everything they've got on the field.
And, of course, Saints @ Seahawks is likely for the NFC's #1 seed (assuming that the Saints can stay head of the resurgent Panthers, anyway). Given how ordinary the Saints have been on the road, and how tough (for the most part) the Seahawks have been at home, this should be a relatively easy win for the Seahawks.
Are the Bears really that bad that they're not favored against the Vikings? Of course, the Vikings played the Bears to a 1-point loss in Chicago week 2, so maybe that answers my question right there.
Somehow, in spite of the fact that the Packers have gone 0-3-1 since Aaron Rodgers got hurt, they're still just a half game out of the lead in the divsion. If they beat the Lions (and the Bears lose to the Vikings), they'll actually have it.
Matt Flynn gave the Packers' offense more life than they've shown since Rodgers got hurt. If the Packers' defense can actually show some life, they might have a chance to make this a game.
Of course, even if the Packers do somehow manage to win the NFC North, I think their weak defense (once again) is a flaw that will prevent them from advancing past the divisional round.
I think I like the pick of the Cardinals to upset the Eagles this week. The Eagles' offense haven't faced as tough a defense all season. And Carson Palmer has rather quitely put together a nice 4 game streak with passer ratings of 93.4 or better. He's not going to be mistaken for one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, but he's definitely been playing to a level that makes it a lot easier for the Cardinals to win.
