Tuesday, September 30, 2008

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

  • Another week, another team at #1. Though to be sure, if the Cowboys had won, they would have stayed on top.

  • Other than the Jets, no teams move by more than 8 spots. Last week, 4 teams moved by 10 or more.

  • Nobody's really dominating (yet) like the Patriots and Colts did last year.

  • There is a massive drop-off from the #30 Bengals to the #31 Rams.

  • Teams ESPN likes more than APR:
    Steelers (+12), Jaguars (+10), Giants (+9)
    I think all of these teams are getting a lot of credit for last year's successes.

  • Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

    • Dolphins (-11): going into Foxboro and getting a win on the Patriots (even without Tom Brady) is huge, but ESPN still has the Dolphins at #26.

    • Bears (-10): Wins over the Colts and a very tough-looking Eagles, with close losses against the Buccaneers and Panthers. Maybe not top 10, but isn't that worth more than the #18 spot?

    • Saints (-9): The Saints have a win over the Buccaneers, and close losses against the Broncos and Redskins. The NFC South is starting to look like a very tough division this year.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1
(LW-4)
Washington
Redskins
3-11.4771
(LW * 1.006)
won by 2
at Cowboys
2
(LW-5)
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
3-11.4730
(LW * 1.022)
won by 9
vs Packers
3
(LW+1)
Tennessee
Titans
4-01.4607
(LW * 0.951)
won by 13
vs Vikings
4
(LW-8)
San Diego
Chargers
2-21.4567
(LW * 1.094)
won by 10
at Raiders
5
(LW+4)
Dallas
Cowboys
3-11.4381
(LW * 0.933)
lost by 2
vs Redskins
6
(LW-8)
Carolina
Panthers
3-11.4189
(LW * 1.078)
won by 15
vs Falcons
7
(LW+3)
New Orleans
Saints
2-21.4129
(LW * 0.948)
won by 14
vs 49ers
8
(LW-3)
Chicago
Bears
2-21.3899
(LW * 1.027)
won by 4
vs Eagles
9
(LW-4)
Philadelphia
Eagles
2-21.3688
(LW * 1.029)
lost by 4
at Bears
10
(LW+2)
New York
Giants
3-01.3687
(LW * 0.950)
Bye
11
(LW+8)
Denver
Broncos
3-11.3666
(LW * 0.893)
lost by 14
at Chiefs
12
(LW+2)
Buffalo
Bills
4-01.3295
(LW * 0.964)
won by 17
at Rams
13
(LW-14)
New York
Jets
2-21.3128
(LW * 1.249)
won by 21
vs Cardinals
14
(LW+8)
Arizona
Cardinals
2-21.3125
(LW * 0.902)
lost by 21
at Jets
15
(LW-5)
Miami
Dolphins
1-21.3121
(LW * 1.110)
Bye
16
(LW+7)
Baltimore
Ravens
2-11.3076
(LW * 0.929)
lost by 3
at Steelers
17
(LW+2)
Pittsburgh
Steelers
3-11.2924
(LW * 1.020)
won by 3
vs Ravens
18
(LW-8)
New England
Patriots
2-11.2783
(LW * 1.203)
Bye
19
(LW+2)
Minnesota
Vikings
1-31.2457
(LW * 1.005)
lost by 13
at Titans
20
(LW+4)
Green Bay
Packers
2-21.2276
(LW * 0.989)
lost by 9
at Buccaneers
21
(LW+2)
Oakland
Raiders
1-31.2112
(LW * 1.006)
lost by 10
vs Chargers
22
(LW+4)
Jacksonville
Jaguars
2-21.1889
(LW * 0.977)
won by 3
vs Texans
23
(LW)
Atlanta
Falcons
2-21.1701
(LW * 1.053)
lost by 15
at Panthers
24
(LW+2)
Indianapolis
Colts
1-21.1518
(LW * 1.004)
Bye
25
(LW-7)
Kansas City
Chiefs
1-31.1475
(LW * 1.393)
won by 14
vs Broncos
26
(LW-2)
Cleveland
Browns
1-31.1213
(LW * 1.171)
won by 8
at Bengals
27
(LW+6)
San Francisco
49ers
2-21.0905
(LW * 0.924)
lost by 14
at Saints
28
(LW-1)
Houston
Texans
0-31.0707
(LW * 1.142)
lost by 3
at Jaguars
29
(LW+4)
Seattle
Seahawks
1-21.0312
(LW * 0.957)
Bye
30
(LW+6)
Cincinnati
Bengals
0-41.0231
(LW * 0.948)
lost by 8
vs Browns
31
(LW+1)
St. Louis
Rams
0-40.8626
(LW * 0.970)
lost by 17
vs Bills
32
(LW+1)
Detroit
Lions
0-30.8584
(LW * 0.987)
Bye

Monday, September 29, 2008

NFL Week 4 Pick Results

WInning teams in bold.

Unanimous picks (7-3)

Correctly picked:

Bills @ Rams
Chargers @ Raiders Texans @ Jaguars
49ers @ Saints
Vikings @ Titans
Falcons @ Panthers
Packers @ Buccaneers

Not so much:

Broncos @ Chiefs
The Broncos' suspect defense implodes: Larry Johnson runs for 198 yards and 2 TD, Damon Huard has a solid day of his own, and the Broncos offense just can't keep up.
Browns @ Bengals
Ryan Fitzpatrick (who?) plays for the injured Carson Palmer. Three interceptions and a late fumble cost the Bengals.
Redskins @ Cowbowys
The Redskins looked very flat in their opening-day loss to the Giants. Since then, they've put together a string of solid wins, now including a road win against one of the best teams in the league.

Split Picks (APR 1-2, SRS 0-3, Line 2-1)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)
The Cardinals just fell apart in the second quarter: two interceptions and two lost fumbles help the Jets score 34 points. The very soft Jets defense gives up 35 second half points, but it wasn't enough.
Eagles (SRS, Line) @ Bears (APR)
The Bears are back to 'Strong defense, adequate offense', at least for one game. Twice the Eagles had first and goal, and couldn't get a touch down (even with four tries on the last one).
Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
The Ravens had their chances to win this one, up to and including winning the toss in overtime. Still, 8 punts and 4 scores might have been good enough for the Ravens offense if the special teams offense hadn't given up a fumble return for a touchdown.

Standings

This weekOverall
APR:8-529-15
SRS:7-628-16
Line:9-430-13-1
Unanimous:7-322- 6

New power rankings, and next weeks' picks to come.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

NCAA: APR's top 30+, week 5

Things are starting to look more reasonable; every team in the top 30 except Minnesota at least received votes in the AP poll.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1
(LW-1)
Alabama
AP=2
5-01.7032
(LW * 1.024)
won by 11
at Georgia
2
(LW-13)
Oklahoma
AP=1
4-01.6641
(LW * 1.100)
won by 25
vs TCU
3
(LW-13)
Missouri
AP=4
4-01.5853
(LW * 1.053)
Bye
4
(LW-3)
Vanderbilt
AP=19
4-01.5800
(LW * 1.017)
Bye
5
(LW-8)
Penn-St
AP=6
5-01.5746
(LW * 1.039)
won by 14
vs Illinois
6
(LW-11)
Texas
AP=5
4-01.5673
(LW * 1.041)
won by 42
vs Arkansas
7
(LW-5)
Texas-Tech
AP=7
4-01.5619
(LW * 1.023)
Bye
8
(LW+7)
USC
AP=9
2-11.5523
(LW * 0.910)
lost by 6
at Oregon-St
9
(LW-15)
Virginia-Tech
AP=20
4-11.5488
(LW * 1.087)
won by 5
at Nebraska
10
(LW-15)
Oklahoma-St
AP=21
4-01.5411
(LW * 1.084)
won by 31
vs Troy
11
(LW-15)
Mississippi
AP=rv
3-21.5150
(LW * 1.076)
won by 1
at Florida
12
(LW+9)
Georgia
AP=11
4-11.5118
(LW * 0.913)
lost by 11
vs Alabama
13
(LW+8)
Utah
AP=15
5-01.5055
(LW * 0.944)
won by 16
vs Weber-St
14
(LW+4)
Ball-St
AP=rv
5-01.4983
(LW * 0.972)
won by 21
vs Kent-St
15
(LW-5)
Tulsa
AP=rv
4-01.4892
(LW * 1.012)
won by 28
vs Central-Arkansas
16
(LW-12)
Kansas
AP=16
3-11.4887
(LW * 1.060)
Bye
17
(LW-13)
South-Florida
AP=10
5-01.4866
(LW * 1.068)
won by 31
at NC-State
18
(LW+7)
Kentucky
AP=rv
4-01.4830
(LW * 0.965)
won by 38
vs West-Kentucky
19
(LW+10)
Wake-Forest
AP=25
3-11.4739
(LW * 0.954)
lost by 7
vs Navy
20
(LW-9)
Michigan-St
AP=rv
4-11.4733
(LW * 1.051)
won by 13
at Indiana
21
(LW+7)
Nebraska
AP=rv
3-11.4717
(LW * 0.972)
lost by 5
vs Virginia-Tech
22
(LW+16)
TCU
AP=rv
4-11.4713
(LW * 0.934)
lost by 25
at Oklahoma
23
(LW+2)
Georgia-Tech
AP=rv
3-11.4698
(LW * 1.002)
Bye
24
(LW+16)
Florida
AP=12
3-11.4696
(LW * 0.949)
lost by 1
vs Mississippi
25
(LW-7)
Northwestern
AP=rv
5-01.4400
(LW * 1.049)
won by 5
at Iowa
26
(LW+22)
Wisconsin
AP=18
3-11.4371
(LW * 0.889)
lost by 2
at Michigan
27
(LW-6)
California
AP=rv
3-11.4362
(LW * 1.050)
won by 35
vs Colorado-St
28
(LW-15)
North-Carolina
AP=rv
3-11.4340
(LW * 1.069)
won by 4
at Miami-FL
29
(LW+11)
Minnesota4-11.4305
(LW * 0.957)
lost by 13
at Ohio-St
30
(LW+7)
Boise-St
AP=17
3-01.4236
(LW * 0.996)
Bye
31
(LW-3)
Ohio-St
AP=14
4-11.4221
(LW * 1.041)
won by 13
vs Minnesota


Other notable teams:
34
(LW+15)
LSU
AP=3
4-01.3959
(LW * 0.943)
won by 10
vs Mississippi-St
37
(LW+6)
Oregon
AP=23
4-11.3648
(LW * 0.986)
won by 49
at Washington-St
38
(LW-9)
Connecticut
AP=24
5-01.3473
(LW * 1.020)
won by 5
at Louisville
39
(LW+4)
BYU
AP=8
4-01.3456
(LW * 0.985)
Bye
51
(LW+29)
Fresno-St
AP=22
3-11.2979
(LW * 0.904)
won by 5
at UCLA
54
(LW+12)
Auburn
AP=13
4-11.2789
(LW * 0.951)
won by 2
vs Tennessee

Thursday, September 25, 2008

NCAA: APR's top 30!

I was originally going to wait until after this week's games to post NCAA power rankings. But this blog isn't necessarily about being right—it's about watching how APR (and other algorithms) perform under various circumstances, including early season data.

Disclaimer:

APR was designed and tuned to be used with NFL teams. There's a lot more separation between the best and worst teams in the NCAA than there is in the NFL.

Also (unlike the NFL), I am not using the scores of every NCAA game in my data set. I'm mostly just using the games listed on yahoo, plus a few choice additions if and when I think they will give more accurate results (like when Outer Bogmarsh gets one game listed and they show up in the top 30).

Even under the best circumstances, the reader should be cautioned that this is not the BCS. APR doesn't give any particular weight to unbeaten teams (though, of course, losing to a weak team always hurts), and APR doesn't give weight to beating an opponent by more than a couple scores.

Some matchups to watch:

The (x, y) notation indicates the AP ranking (x; U=unranked) and APR (y) ranking.

  • (U, 18) Minnesota @ (14, 35) Ohio St
  • (24, 6) TCU @ (2, 15) Oklahoma
  • (8, 2) Alabama @ (3, 3) Georgia
  • (22, 74) Illinois @ (12, 13) Penn St

It's still early—there's a lot of teams that have only played 2 or 3 games. But the rankings are starting to make sense. Most of the top 30 are ranked in the AP.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1USC
AP=1
2-01.7058Bye
2Alabama
AP=8
4-01.6640won by 35
at Arkansas
3Georgia
AP=3
4-01.6582won by 17
at Arizona-St
4Wisconsin
AP=9
3-01.6162Bye
5Utah
AP=17
4-01.5915won by 7
at Air-Force
6TCU
AP=24
4-01.5719won by 41
at SMU
7Wake-Forest
AP=16
3-01.5581won by 9
at Florida-St
8Vanderbilt
AP=21
4-01.5537won by 6
at Mississippi
9Florida
AP=4
3-01.5480won by 24
at Tennessee
10Ball-St 4-01.5417won by 22
at Indiana
11Kentucky 3-01.5369Bye
12Texas-Tech
AP=10
4-01.5268won by 42
vs Massachusetts
13Penn-St
AP=12
4-01.5149won by 42
vs Temple
14Nebraska 3-01.5132Bye
15Oklahoma
AP=2
3-01.5127Bye
16Missouri
AP=6
4-01.5061won by 21
vs Buffalo
17Texas
AP=7
3-01.5054won by 42
vs Rice
18Minnesota4-01.4943won by 34
vs Florida-Atlantic
19LSU
AP=5
3-01.4809won by 5
at Auburn
20Tulsa 3-01.4708won by 42
vs New-Mexico
21Georgia-Tech 3-11.4674won by 31
vs Mississippi-St
22Fresno-St
AP=25
2-11.4356won by 1
at Toledo
23Boise-St
AP=19
3-01.4290won by 5
at Oregon
24Virginia-Tech 3-11.4254won by 3
at North-Carolina
25Oklahoma-St 3-01.4210Bye
26Mississippi2-21.4051lost by 6
vs Vanderbilt
27East-Carolina
AP=23
3-11.4045lost by 6
at NC-State
28Kansas
AP=18
3-11.4041won by 24
vs Sam-Houston-St
29Michigan-St3-11.4012won by 16
vs Notre-Dame
30South-Florida
AP=13
4-01.3921won by 8
at Florida-Intl

Other notable teams:

APAPR
BYU 1133
Ohio St 1435
Auburn 1541
Clemson 2054
Illinois2274

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

NFL Week 4 picks

Update: lines for Ravens @ Steelers and Eagles @ Bears added.

Picks for week 4.

Notes:

  • The line on Ravens @ Steelers and Eagles @ Bears is still not available, so I'm going to post as is, and update as and when the last two lines are posted.

  • As always, line info is from yahoo.com.

  • Again, a lot of agreement. The only non-unanimous picks are Cardinals @ Jets, and Eagles @ Bears.

  • Bears @ Eagles is the only disagreement between APR and SRS. On the one hand, SRS probably gives the Eagles too much offensive credit for their 38-3 win over the Rams. On the other hand, APR probably doesn't give the Eagles enough defensive credit for their 15-6 win over the Steelers.

  • Bonus note: it sure seems early in the season for so many teams to be having their bye week already. On the other hand, 4 of the 6 (Lions, Colts, Patriots, and Seahawks) have to be pretty grateful for a week off to regroup for the rest of the season.

GameAPRSRSLine
Denver Broncos @
Kansas City Chiefs
Broncos
ρ=1.8566
Broncos
δ=37.0
Broncos
-9
Buffalo Bills @
St. Louis Rams
Bills
ρ=1.5521
Bills
δ=32.5
Bills
-8
Arizona Cardinals @
New York Jets
Cardinals
ρ=1.3852
Cardinals
δ=21.6
Jets
-2
Houston Texans @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.2979
Jaguars
δ=16.9
Jaguars
-7.5
San Francisco 49ers @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=1.2624
Saints
δ=12.5
Saints
-6
Minnesota Vikings @
Tennessee Titans
Titans
ρ=1.2384
Titans
δ= 9.5
Titans
-3
Atlanta Falcons @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.1838
Panthers
δ= 6.2
Panthers
-7
Green Bay Packers @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.1603
Buccaneers
δ= 2.8
Buccaneers
-1
Cleveland Browns @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1269
Bengals
δ= 3.8
Bengals
-3.5
Baltimore Ravens @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens
ρ=1.1109
Ravens
δ= 8.4
Steelers
-5.5
San Diego Chargers @
Oakland Raiders
Chargers
ρ=1.1061
Chargers
δ=12.4
Chargers
-7.5
Washington Redskins @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.0503
Cowboys
δ= 7.0
Cowboys
-11.5
Philadelphia Eagles @
Chicago Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0181
Eagles
δ= 2.8
Eagles
-3
Bye: Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Still some pretty big swings this week. But things are beginning to settle out, too. Anyone want to argue any of the bottom 6 teams should be ranked higher?

Comments below.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1
(LW-5)
Dallas
Cowboys
3-01.5415
(LW * 1.059)
won by 11
at Packers
2
(LW-1)
Tennessee
Titans
3-01.5353
(LW * 1.001)
won by 19
vs Texans
3
(LW+1)
Denver
Broncos
3-01.5296
(LW * 0.981)
won by 2
vs Saints
4
(LW-6)
New Orleans
Saints
1-21.4899
(LW * 1.094)
lost by 2
at Broncos
5
(LW-10)
Washington
Redskins
2-11.4677
(LW * 1.166)
won by 7
vs Cardinals
6
(LW-3)
Arizona
Cardinals
2-11.4555
(LW * 1.059)
lost by 7
at Redskins
7
(LW-10)
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
2-11.4410
(LW * 1.156)
won by 3
at Bears
8
(LW+3)
New York
Giants
3-01.4401
(LW * 0.958)
won by 3
vs Bengals
9
(LW-5)
Baltimore
Ravens
2-01.4073
(LW * 1.098)
won by 18
vs Browns
10
(LW+3)
Buffalo
Bills
3-01.3797
(LW * 0.971)
won by 1
vs Raiders
11
(LW+7)
Chicago
Bears
1-21.3539
(LW * 0.886)
lost by 3
vs Buccaneers
12
(LW+4)
San Diego
Chargers
1-21.3317
(LW * 0.938)
won by 19
vs Jets
13
(LW+2)
Philadelphia
Eagles
2-11.3298
(LW * 1.019)
won by 9
vs Steelers
14
(LW+13)
Carolina
Panthers
2-11.3159
(LW * 0.804)
lost by 10
at Vikings
15
(LW+3)
Pittsburgh
Steelers
2-11.2668
(LW * 0.975)
lost by 9
at Eagles
16
(LW)
Green Bay
Packers
2-11.2418
(LW * 0.988)
lost by 11
vs Cowboys
17
(LW-7)
Minnesota
Vikings
1-21.2397
(LW * 1.204)
won by 10
vs Panthers
18
(LW-4)
Jacksonville
Jaguars
1-21.2168
(LW * 1.149)
won by 2
at Colts
19
(LW+1)
Oakland
Raiders
1-21.2040
(LW * 0.975)
lost by 1
at Bills
20
(LW-5)
Miami
Dolphins
1-21.1818
(LW * 1.201)
won by 25
at Patriots
21
(LW+1)
San Francisco
49ers
2-11.1802
(LW * 1.049)
won by 18
vs Lions
22
(LW+3)
Indianapolis
Colts
1-21.1473
(LW * 0.958)
lost by 2
vs Jaguars
23
(LW)
Atlanta
Falcons
2-11.1116
(LW * 1.070)
won by 24
vs Chiefs
24
(LW-6)
Cincinnati
Bengals
0-31.0788
(LW * 1.263)
lost by 3
at Giants
25
(LW-1)
Seattle
Seahawks
1-21.0775
(LW * 1.159)
won by 24
vs Rams
26
(LW+13)
New England
Patriots
2-11.0624
(LW * 0.818)
lost by 25
vs Dolphins
27
(LW+6)
New York
Jets
1-21.0507
(LW * 0.979)
lost by 19
at Chargers
28
(LW)
Cleveland
Browns
0-30.9574
(LW * 1.038)
lost by 18
at Ravens
29
(LW-2)
Houston
Texans
0-20.9375
(LW * 1.153)
lost by 19
at Titans
30
(LW+1)
St. Louis
Rams
0-30.8890
(LW * 0.969)
lost by 24
at Seahawks
31
(LW-1)
Detroit
Lions
0-30.8699
(LW * 1.081)
lost by 18
at 49ers
32
(LW+5)
Kansas City
Chiefs
0-30.8239
(LW * 0.889)
lost by 24
at Falcons

Comments:

  • This is the second week in a row the Broncos have established a big lead, only to see it slip away. At least this week they didn't need the help of a last-minute score (and too-quick whistle) to get it done. One of these weeks, that's not going to work out so well.

  • The Saints have lost by a combined 7 points to the Redskins (#5) and Broncos (#3). They play the 49ers (#21) next, and should fall as a result, win or lose.

  • The Bears have lost by a combined 6 points to the Panthers (#14) and Buccaneers (#7). They play Philadelphia (#13) next, and could maintain their position with a convincing win.

  • The Cardinals move up in spite of their loss (the two teams they beat (49ers and Dolphins) both had big wins this week).

  • The Panthers and Patriots both pay a major price for falling to weak teams.

  • As predicted, the Chargers drop in spite of a big win over the Jets.

  • On the other hand, the Packers don't get any power-by-association in their big home loss to the Cowboys (and it was only a garbage-time touchdown that keeps them from falling to #19).

  • There is a major drop-off in power from the Jets (#27) to the Browns (#28).

Monday, September 22, 2008

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous picks (11-2)

Texans @ Titans
Bengals @ Giants
Lions @ 49ers
Browns @ Ravens
Raiders @ Bills
Saints @ Broncos
Chiefs @ Falcons
Rams @ Seahawks
Steelers @ Eagles
Jets @ Chargers
Cowboys @ Packers

Not so much:

Dolphins @ Patriots
Epic fail. How many more times this season do you suppose the Patriots defense will see direct snaps to a running back?
Buccaneers @ Bears
The Bears' defense couldn't hold a 10 point lead for 6 minutes and 45 seconds. It's starting to look like that week 1 performance was something of a fluke (combined with the fact that the Colts may be looking at a major drop-off of their own).

Split Picks (APR 0-3, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Jaguars (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)
SRS makes up for last week; tied with APR again. There's still a lot of football to play, but the Colts need to figure out how to have a defense when Bob Sanders is hurt.
Panthers (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
The Vikings do have a pretty stout defense, and like the Giants found out last year, can make up for an anemic offense when they get the chance.
Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (Line)
The Cardinals' two turnovers lead to 10 points for the Redskins.

Standings

This weekOverall
APR: 11-521-10
SRS: 12-421-10
Line:13-321- 9-1
Unanimous:11-215- 3

New power rankings, and next weeks' picks to come.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

NFL Week 3 Picks

Picks for week 3.

Line picks are from yahoo.com, and are (probably) accurate when I read them off the page. YMMV.

GameAPRSRSLine
Houston Texans @
Tennessee Titans
Titans
ρ=1.8854
Titans
δ=38.1
Titans
-5
Cincinnati Bengals @
New York Giants
Giants
ρ=1.7591
Giants
δ=26.0
Giants
-13.5
Carolina Panthers @
Minnesota Vikings
Panthers
ρ=1.5888
Panthers
δ=21.2
Vikings
-3.5
Detroit Lions @
San Francisco 49ers
49ers
ρ=1.3975
49ers
δ=19.5
49ers
-4
Cleveland Browns @
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.3900
Ravens
δ= 8.6
Ravens
-2
New York Jets @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.3231
Chargers
δ=21.0
Chargers
-9
Miami Dolphins @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.3211
Patriots
δ=10.6
Patriots
-12.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Chicago Bears
Bears
ρ=1.2249
Bears
δ= 9.7
Bears
-3
Dallas Cowboys @
Green Bay Packers
Cowboys
ρ=1.1583
Cowboys
δ=13.2
Cowboys
-3
Oakland Raiders @
Buffalo Bills
Bills
ρ=1.1516
Bills
δ=19.6
Bills
-9.5
New Orleans Saints @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.1446
Broncos
δ=11.7
Broncos
-5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1312
Jaguars
δ= 4.3
Colts
-5.5
Kansas City Chiefs @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.1214
Falcons
δ= 6.7
Falcons
-5
Arizona Cardinals @
Washington Redskins
Cardinals
ρ=1.0917
Cardinals
δ= 5.4
Redskins
-3
St. Louis Rams @
Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.0136
Seahawks
δ=11.0
Seahawks
-9.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.0044
Eagles
δ= 9.8
Eagles
-3

Comments:

  • A surprising amount of agreement, considering how much movement there was in the rankings this week.

  • The Panthers have two huge wins, and are getting their star receiver (Steve Smith) back this week. Why does the line like the Vikings?

  • Patriots -12.5? Seems like a lot for a team that hasn't scored more than 19 points in a game this season, and hasn't won by more than 11 points since last December. Still, the Dolphins are pretty awful on defense this year. (Oh, and that last big win? Dolphins 7, Patriots 28.)

  • APR and SRS only disagree on Jags @ Colts.

  • The Seahawks and 49ers are both favored to win. The Cardinals' stay alone at the top of the NFC West could be very short...

  • The APR matchup ratio of ρ=1.0044 for Steelers @ Eagles is pretty close to a toss-up.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

Here's the power rankings for week 2. A few notes:

  • A lot of big moves this week. It's going to be a couple more weeks before things settle down.

  • In spite of being 0-2, the Chargers are benefitting from close loses to the #1 and #2 ranked teams. They will probably fall next week, even if they beat the #21-ranked Jets.

  • In spite of being 2-0, the Packers actually fall a spot. Part of it is the fact that the Vikings and Lions are both 0-2, and the Lions loss last week looking even worse with the Falcons losing by 15 this week. The Packers have their first real test Sunday when the Cowboys come to Lambeau, and should rise in power win or lose.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW-13)Carolina
Panthers
2-01.6363
(LW * 1.1702)
beat Bears by 3
2 (LW-1)Denver
Broncos
2-01.5586
(LW * 1.0098)
beat Chargers by 1
3 (LW-9)Tennessee
Titans
2-01.5333
(LW * 1.0660)
beat Bengals by 17
4 (LW+3)Chicago
Bears
1-11.5274
(LW * 0.9884)
lost to Panthers by 3
5 (LW-4)New York
Giants
2-01.5025
(LW * 1.0436)
beat Rams by 28
6 (LW+4)Dallas
Cowboys
2-01.4552
(LW * 0.9418)
beat Eagles by 4
7 (LW+1)Buffalo
Bills
2-01.4215
(LW * 0.9682)
beat Jaguars by 4
8 (LW-16)San Diego
Chargers
0-21.4204
(LW * 1.3967)
lost to Broncos by 1
9 (LW+5)Arizona
Cardinals
2-01.3743
(LW * 0.9073)
beat Dolphins by 21
10 (LW-6)New Orleans
Saints
1-11.3617
(LW * 1.0241)
lost to Redskins by 5
11 (LW+4)Philadelphia
Eagles
1-11.3054
(LW * 0.8906)
lost to Cowboys by 4
12 (LW+7)Pittsburgh
Steelers
2-01.2996
(LW * 0.8849)
beat Browns by 4
13 (LW+3)New England
Patriots
2-01.2995
(LW * 0.9035)
beat Jets by 9
14 (LW+3)Baltimore
Ravens
1-01.2822
(LW * 0.8914)
Bye
15 (LW-7)Washington
Redskins
1-11.2589
(LW * 1.2092)
beat Saints by 5
16 (LW+1)Green Bay
Packers
2-01.2563
(LW * 0.9449)
beat Lions by 23
17 (LW-1)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1-11.2470
(LW * 1.0421)
beat Falcons by 15
18 (LW-14)Oakland
Raiders
1-11.2344
(LW * 1.7456)
beat Chiefs by 15
19 (LW-11)Indianapolis
Colts
1-11.1977
(LW * 1.6528)
beat Vikings by 3
20 (LW-6)San Francisco
49ers
1-11.1246
(LW * 1.2732)
beat Seahawks by 3
21 (LW+8)New York
Jets
1-11.0735
(LW * 0.7677)
lost to Patriots by 9
22 (LW+1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
0-21.0588
(LW * 1.0139)
lost to Bills by 4
23 (LW+15)Atlanta
Falcons
1-11.0387
(LW * 0.7202)
lost to Buccaneers by 15
24 (LW+7)Minnesota
Vikings
0-21.0299
(LW * 0.8606)
lost to Colts by 3
25 (LW)Miami
Dolphins
0-20.9836
(LW * 0.9673)
lost to Cardinals by 21
26 (LW-2)Seattle
Seahawks
0-20.9299
(LW * 1.1100)
lost to 49ers by 3
27 (LW+8)Kansas City
Chiefs
0-20.9263
(LW * 0.8870)
lost to Raiders by 15
28 (LW-3)Cleveland
Browns
0-20.9224
(LW * 1.2785)
lost to Steelers by 4
29 (LW)St. Louis
Rams
0-20.9174
(LW * 1.1227)
lost to Giants by 28
30 (LW+10)Cincinnati
Bengals
0-20.8541
(LW * 0.8179)
lost to Titans by 17
31 (LW+4)Houston
Texans
0-10.8132
(LW * 0.9643)
Bye
32 (LW+9)Detroit
Lions
0-20.8048
(LW * 0.7779)
lost to Packers by 23

NFL: The Chargers have a problem, and it's not with the referees

As I alluded to below, the Chargers had 3 good chances to win against the Broncos on Sunday:

  1. Down 31-38, the Broncos have 2nd and goal at the Chargers 1 yard line. Cutler fumbles the ball, but Ed Hochuli initially thinks it's a forward pass, and blows the play dead as soon as the ball hits the ground. Broncos retain posession. At fault: Ed Hochuli.

  2. After a 6 yard run, the Broncos have 4th and goal at the 4. All the Chargers have to do is keep the Broncos out of the end zone, and they win. Cutler to Royal for 4 yards, Touchdown. At fault: Chargers defense.

  3. Still down 37-38, the Broncos elect to go for the two-point conversion. All the Chargers have to do is keep the Broncos out of the end zone, and they win. Cutler to Royal, Attempt succeeds. At fault: Chargers defense.

It's no great shock that Norv Turner is focusing on the first chance, as it can be blamed on someone not associated with the Chargers organization. But the Broncos offense ran 3 plays after that, and the Chargers had two solid chances to deny the Broncos, and couldn't get it done.

Oh, yeah—remember what happened to the Chargers in week 1? Panthers are down 19-24. They have 4th and 1 at the Chargers 14 yard line, with two seconds left. All the Chargers have to do is keep the Panthers out of the end zone, and they win. Delhomme to Rosario for 14 yards, Touchdown. At fault: Chargers defense.

At this point, I will only offer a paraphrase of Auric's rule:

Once is coincidence. Twice is happenstance. Three times is the Chargers sucking.

Monday, September 15, 2008

NFL Week 2 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 2.

Unanimous, correctly picked games not listed. Post reformatted to match later weeks.

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous picks (4-1)

Correctly picked:

Steelers @ Browns
Giants @ Rams
Packers @ Lions
Dolphins @ Cardinals

Not so much:

Raiders @ Chiefs
Does this mean anything? (Besides the fact that the Chiefs are a not a good team) The Raiders won last year at Arrowhead, too.

Split Picks (APR 6-4, SRS 5-5, Line 4-5-1)

Note for future reference, the Ravens @ Texans game originally scheduled for this week was moved to week 10 because of hurricane damage to the Texans' stadium.

Colts (Line) @ Vikings (APR, SRS)
Note to the Vikings: 5 scores against the Colts is not a big deal if they're all field goals. The Colts would've had a much harder time getting a win if even one of those scores was a touchdown.
Bills (APR, SRS) @ Jaguars (Line)
I didn't see this game, and haven't seen any highlights yet, but the stats make it look like the Jags were just outplayed. With the Jaguars and Colts struggling, the AFC South could be wide open for the Titans this year...
Titans (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)
The Line will have to explain for itself why it liked the Bengals here...
49ers (APR, SRS) @ Seahawks (Line)
Seahawks are in deep trouble. Can the Cardinals actually win the division this year?
Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)
Rumors of the Patriots demise is greatly exaggerated.
Chargers (Line) @ Broncos (APR, SRS)
A too-quick whistle cost the Chargers a chance to win the game. Also, the inability to knock down a touchdown pass (on 4th and 14) and the inability to knock down the 2-point conversion. Or to drive down to FG range in the remaining seconds of the game.
Saints (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (no Line for this game)
All was going according to plan, until the Saints gave up 14 fourth-quarter points.
Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Buccaneers (Line)
The Falcons would like to play the Lions every week. So would every other team in the league.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
Are the Panthers (without Steve Smith, yet!) really that good, or are the Bears gassed after one game?
Eagles (SRS) @ Cowboys (APR, Line)
And APR takes the early lead over SRS! (And didn't these teams used to have defenses?)

Standings:

This weekOverall
APR:10-510-5
SRS: 9-6 9-6
Line: 8-6-1 8-6-1
Unanimous: 4-1 4-1

An unusually good week for APR, particularly so early in the season. New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come!

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

NFL Week 2 Picks

Picks for week 2 National Jump-to-Conclusions Week.

Line data is from yahoo.com, and is not guaranteed to be accurate beyond the point I read it off their page.

GameAPRSRSLine
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Cleveland Browns
Steelers
ρ=2.0358
Steelers
δ=39.0
Steelers
-6
New York Giants @
St. Louis Rams
Giants
ρ=1.7619
Giants
δ=44.0
Giants
-8.5
Baltimore Ravens @
Houston Texans
Ravens
ρ=1.7055
Ravens
δ=28.0
Texans
-4.5
Indianapolis Colts @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.6514
Vikings
δ=11.0
Colts
-2
San Diego Chargers @
Denver Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.5177
Broncos
δ=29.0
Chargers
-2.5
Miami Dolphins @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.4895
Cardinals
δ=16.0
Cardinals
-6.5
Oakland Raiders @
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.4767
Chiefs
δ=20.0
Chiefs
-4
Buffalo Bills @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Bills
ρ=1.4060
Bills
δ=31.0
Jaguars
-6
Tennessee Titans @
Cincinnati Bengals
Titans
ρ=1.3774
Titans
δ=14.0
Cincinnati
-1.5
Green Bay Packers @
Detroit Lions
Packers
ρ=1.2853
Packers
δ=18.0
Packers
-3
New Orleans Saints @
Washington Redskins
Saints
ρ=1.2772
Saints
δ=13.0
Push
Atlanta Falcons @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Falcons
ρ=1.2053
Falcons
δ=17.0
Buccaneers
-8
Chicago Bears @
Carolina Panthers
Bears
ρ=1.1052
Bears
δ=14.0
Panthers
-3
San Francisco 49ers @
Seattle Seahawks
49ers
ρ=1.0544
49ers
δ=14.0
Seahawks
-8
Philadelphia Eagles @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.0542
Eagles
δ=17.0
Cowboys
-6.5
New England Patriots @
New York Jets
Patriots
ρ=1.0287
Patriots
δ= 1.0
Jets
-2

Comments:

  • I like APR's pick of the Vikings over the Colts. Indy's run defense looked terrible Sunday night; Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor could both have career games Sunday.

  • Why does the line like the Bengals over the Titans? Is it because Young is out? The highlights I saw of the Titans/Jaguars game made it look like the Titans actually played better when Kerry Collins came in...

  • How can you not pick the Saints over the Redskins? Washington looked terrible in their opener, and New Orleans actually won a game...

  • The Patriots are not favored to win. Wow. APR regards a 7 point win as notably better than a 6 point win, which is why the Patriot's home win is ranked higher than the Jets' road win.

  • These will likely be the highest (and most unreliable) matchup ratio values (the ρ number) APR will produce all season. Be warned.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

Here's the power rankings for week 1. A few notes:

  • There's a small "epsilon" factor built-in to APR that gives a very small amount of weight to the margin of victory to avoid early-season ties. The way I wrote it, this is done every time through the feedback loop, and oddly, the end result makes teams that win by a wide margin slightly weaker than teams that win closer games under similar circumstances. The way I wrote the code, there's no easy way to change this except to take it out completely, and I'm not entirely convinced this is wrong...

  • Note that there are still a number of ties in the rankings.

  • These rankings are based on one game (no preseason data was included). Don't freak out if you think your team is ranked too low; things will settle out as more games are played.

  • In general, APR operates under the assumption that

    winning on the road > winning at home > losing on the road > losing at home

    which is very much reflected in the rankings below. The Jets and Panthers were not ranked higher because their road wins were close.

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1)Chicago
Bears
1.54541-0won @Colts by 16
2)Dallas
Cowboys
1.54511-0won @Browns by 18
3)Denver
Broncos
1.54341-0won @Raiders by 27
4)Arizona
Cardinals
1.51481-0won @49ers by 10
5)Pittsburgh
Steelers
1.46871-0won vs Texans by 21
6)Buffalo
Bills
1.46821-0won vs Seahawks by 24
7)Philadelphia
Eagles
1.46571-0won vs Rams by 35
8)Atlanta
Falcons
1.44231-0won vs Lions by 24
9)New York
Giants
1.43971-0won vs Redskins by 9
T10)New England
Patriots
1.43841-0won vs Chiefs by 7
T10)Baltimore
Ravens
1.43841-0won vs Bengals by 7
T10)Tennessee
Titans
1.43841-0won vs Jaguars by 7
T13)New York
Jets
1.39831-0won @ Dolphins by 6
T13)Carolina
Panthers
1.39831-0won @Chargers by 2
T15)Green Bay
Packers
1.32961-0won vs Vikings by 6
T15)New Orleans
Saints
1.32961-0won vs Buccaneers by 4
T17)Minnesota
Vikings
1.19670-1lost @Packers by 6
T17)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
1.19670-1lost @ Saints by 4
T19)Kansas City
Chiefs
1.04430-1lost @Patriots by 7
T19)Cincinnati
Bengals
1.04430-1lost @Ravens by 7
21)Jacksonville
Jaguars
1.04430-1lost @Titans by 7
22)Washington
Redskins
1.04100-1lost @ Giants by 9
23)Detroit
Lions
1.03450-1lost @ Falcons by 14
T24)San Diego
Chargers
1.01690-1lost vs Panthers by 2
T24)Miami
Dolphins
1.01690-1lost vs Jets by 6
26)San Francisco
49ers
0.88330-1lost vs Cardinals by 10
27)Houston
Texans
0.84340-1lost @Steelers by 21
28)Seattle
Seahawks
0.83780-1lost @Bills by 14
29)St. Louis
Rams
0.81710-1lost @Eagles by 35
30)Indianapolis
Colts
0.72460-1lost vs Bears by 16
31)Cleveland
Browns
0.72150-1lost vs Cowboys by 18
32)Oakland
Raiders
0.70720-1lost vs Broncos by 27

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

Game Preseason
Week 3
Pre/half
Week 3
Preseason
Week 4
Pre/half
Week 4
Line
WAS @ NYGWAS NYGNYGNYGNYG
CIN @ BALCIN CINCINCINCIN
NYJ @ MIAMIA MIAMIAMIANYJ
KC @ NE KC KC KC KC NE
HOU @ PITPIT PITHOUPITPIT
JAC @ TENJAC JACJACJACJAC
DET @ ATLDET DETDETDETDET
SEA @ BUFBUF BUFSEASEAPush
TB @ NO NO NO TB NO NO
STL @ PHIPHI PHIPHIPHIPHI
DAL @ CLEDAL DALDALDALDAL
CAR @ SD CAR CARSD SD SD
ARI @ SF ARI ARISF ARIARI
CHI @ INDIND INDCHICHIIND
MIN @ GB MIN MINGB MINGB
DEN @ OAKDEN OAKDENDENDEN
Total8-88-86-108-810-5-1

Well, that turned out to be pretty unremarkable. I still think there's something there, but it's going to take some more extensive analysis to find it.

Other notes:

  • Eli Manning didn't really look that good; he's going to throw more interceptions when he faces better defenses, and I'll be surprised if the Giants can win many more games this season with just 16 points.

  • The Lions and Falcons can be exhibits "A" and "B" for the proposition that the preseason doesn't mean much.

  • Peyton Manning looked really uncomfortable Sunday night. Missing the whole preseason and then losing his center is not a good combination.

  • Of course, it didn't help the Colts any that the Bears' defense looks (for the moment, anyway) to be back to their Super Bowl form. That, along with a solid running game and a mistake-free performance by Orton made it a long night for the Colts.

  • With Tom Brady out for the season, and the Colts and Chargers losing, the AFC looks wide open right now.

  • I do not wish to alarm you, but the Arizona Cardinals have sole posession of first place in the NFC West. And with the Dolphins coming to Tempe next week, likely to remain there.

  • Everything you need to know about the 49ers: they turned the ball over 5 times. Everything you need to know about the Cardinals: in spite of being +5 on turnovers, they only won by 10 points.

First week power rankings to come...

Friday, September 5, 2008

Just got the latest issue of the Packers Pro Shop catalog!

Guess who's the Packers' new favorite quarterback?

It's Bart Driver and Donald Starr! (Don't ask me which one is which, though.)

The closest thing they have to a picture of He Who Wanted A Trade: