Wednesday, September 24, 2008

NFL Week 4 picks

Update: lines for Ravens @ Steelers and Eagles @ Bears added.

Picks for week 4.

Notes:

  • The line on Ravens @ Steelers and Eagles @ Bears is still not available, so I'm going to post as is, and update as and when the last two lines are posted.

  • As always, line info is from yahoo.com.

  • Again, a lot of agreement. The only non-unanimous picks are Cardinals @ Jets, and Eagles @ Bears.

  • Bears @ Eagles is the only disagreement between APR and SRS. On the one hand, SRS probably gives the Eagles too much offensive credit for their 38-3 win over the Rams. On the other hand, APR probably doesn't give the Eagles enough defensive credit for their 15-6 win over the Steelers.

  • Bonus note: it sure seems early in the season for so many teams to be having their bye week already. On the other hand, 4 of the 6 (Lions, Colts, Patriots, and Seahawks) have to be pretty grateful for a week off to regroup for the rest of the season.

GameAPRSRSLine
Denver Broncos @
Kansas City Chiefs
Broncos
ρ=1.8566
Broncos
δ=37.0
Broncos
-9
Buffalo Bills @
St. Louis Rams
Bills
ρ=1.5521
Bills
δ=32.5
Bills
-8
Arizona Cardinals @
New York Jets
Cardinals
ρ=1.3852
Cardinals
δ=21.6
Jets
-2
Houston Texans @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.2979
Jaguars
δ=16.9
Jaguars
-7.5
San Francisco 49ers @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=1.2624
Saints
δ=12.5
Saints
-6
Minnesota Vikings @
Tennessee Titans
Titans
ρ=1.2384
Titans
δ= 9.5
Titans
-3
Atlanta Falcons @
Carolina Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.1838
Panthers
δ= 6.2
Panthers
-7
Green Bay Packers @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.1603
Buccaneers
δ= 2.8
Buccaneers
-1
Cleveland Browns @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1269
Bengals
δ= 3.8
Bengals
-3.5
Baltimore Ravens @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens
ρ=1.1109
Ravens
δ= 8.4
Steelers
-5.5
San Diego Chargers @
Oakland Raiders
Chargers
ρ=1.1061
Chargers
δ=12.4
Chargers
-7.5
Washington Redskins @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.0503
Cowboys
δ= 7.0
Cowboys
-11.5
Philadelphia Eagles @
Chicago Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0181
Eagles
δ= 2.8
Eagles
-3
Bye: Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks