I was originally going to wait until after this week's games to post NCAA power rankings. But this blog isn't necessarily about being right—it's about watching how APR (and other algorithms) perform under various circumstances, including early season data.
Disclaimer:
APR was designed and tuned to be used with NFL teams. There's a lot more separation between the best and worst teams in the NCAA than there is in the NFL.
Also (unlike the NFL), I am not using the scores of every NCAA game in my data set. I'm mostly just using the games listed on yahoo, plus a few choice additions if and when I think they will give more accurate results (like when Outer Bogmarsh gets one game listed and they show up in the top 30).
Even under the best circumstances, the reader should be cautioned that this is not the BCS. APR doesn't give any particular weight to unbeaten teams (though, of course, losing to a weak team always hurts), and APR doesn't give weight to beating an opponent by more than a couple scores.
Some matchups to watch:
The (x, y) notation indicates the AP ranking (x; U=unranked) and APR (y) ranking.
- (U, 18) Minnesota @ (14, 35) Ohio St
- (24, 6) TCU @ (2, 15) Oklahoma
- (8, 2) Alabama @ (3, 3) Georgia
- (22, 74) Illinois @ (12, 13) Penn St
It's still early—there's a lot of teams that have only played 2 or 3 games. But the rankings are starting to make sense. Most of the top 30 are ranked in the AP.
Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
1 | USC
AP=1 | 2-0 | 1.7058 | Bye |
2 | Alabama
AP=8
| 4-0 | 1.6640 | won by 35 at Arkansas |
3 | Georgia
AP=3
| 4-0 | 1.6582 | won by 17 at Arizona-St |
4 | Wisconsin
AP=9 | 3-0 | 1.6162 | Bye |
5 | Utah
AP=17 | 4-0 | 1.5915 | won by 7 at Air-Force |
6 | TCU
AP=24 | 4-0 | 1.5719 | won by 41 at SMU |
7 | Wake-Forest
AP=16 | 3-0 | 1.5581 | won by 9 at Florida-St |
8 | Vanderbilt
AP=21 | 4-0 | 1.5537 | won by 6 at Mississippi |
9 | Florida
AP=4 | 3-0 | 1.5480 | won by 24 at Tennessee |
10 | Ball-St | 4-0 | 1.5417 | won by 22 at Indiana |
11 | Kentucky | 3-0 | 1.5369 | Bye |
12 | Texas-Tech
AP=10 | 4-0 | 1.5268 | won by 42 vs Massachusetts |
13 | Penn-St
AP=12 | 4-0 | 1.5149 | won by 42 vs Temple |
14 | Nebraska | 3-0 | 1.5132 | Bye |
15 | Oklahoma
AP=2 | 3-0 | 1.5127 | Bye |
16 | Missouri
AP=6 | 4-0 | 1.5061 | won by 21 vs Buffalo |
17 | Texas
AP=7 | 3-0 | 1.5054 | won by 42 vs Rice |
18 | Minnesota | 4-0 | 1.4943 | won by 34 vs Florida-Atlantic |
19 | LSU
AP=5 | 3-0 | 1.4809 | won by 5 at Auburn |
20 | Tulsa | 3-0 | 1.4708 | won by 42 vs New-Mexico |
21 | Georgia-Tech | 3-1 | 1.4674 | won by 31 vs Mississippi-St |
22 | Fresno-St
AP=25 | 2-1 | 1.4356 | won by 1 at Toledo |
23 | Boise-St
AP=19 | 3-0 | 1.4290 | won by 5 at Oregon |
24 | Virginia-Tech | 3-1 | 1.4254 | won by 3 at North-Carolina |
25 | Oklahoma-St | 3-0 | 1.4210 | Bye |
26 | Mississippi | 2-2 | 1.4051 | lost by 6 vs Vanderbilt |
27 | East-Carolina
AP=23 | 3-1 | 1.4045 | lost by 6 at NC-State |
28 | Kansas
AP=18 | 3-1 | 1.4041 | won by 24 vs Sam-Houston-St |
29 | Michigan-St | 3-1 | 1.4012 | won by 16 vs Notre-Dame |
30 | South-Florida
AP=13 | 4-0 | 1.3921 | won by 8 at Florida-Intl |
Other notable teams:
AP APR BYU 11 33 Ohio St 14 35 Auburn 15 41 Clemson 20 54 Illinois 22 74