Thursday, September 25, 2008

NCAA: APR's top 30!

I was originally going to wait until after this week's games to post NCAA power rankings. But this blog isn't necessarily about being right—it's about watching how APR (and other algorithms) perform under various circumstances, including early season data.

Disclaimer:

APR was designed and tuned to be used with NFL teams. There's a lot more separation between the best and worst teams in the NCAA than there is in the NFL.

Also (unlike the NFL), I am not using the scores of every NCAA game in my data set. I'm mostly just using the games listed on yahoo, plus a few choice additions if and when I think they will give more accurate results (like when Outer Bogmarsh gets one game listed and they show up in the top 30).

Even under the best circumstances, the reader should be cautioned that this is not the BCS. APR doesn't give any particular weight to unbeaten teams (though, of course, losing to a weak team always hurts), and APR doesn't give weight to beating an opponent by more than a couple scores.

Some matchups to watch:

The (x, y) notation indicates the AP ranking (x; U=unranked) and APR (y) ranking.

  • (U, 18) Minnesota @ (14, 35) Ohio St
  • (24, 6) TCU @ (2, 15) Oklahoma
  • (8, 2) Alabama @ (3, 3) Georgia
  • (22, 74) Illinois @ (12, 13) Penn St

It's still early—there's a lot of teams that have only played 2 or 3 games. But the rankings are starting to make sense. Most of the top 30 are ranked in the AP.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1USC
AP=1
2-01.7058Bye
2Alabama
AP=8
4-01.6640won by 35
at Arkansas
3Georgia
AP=3
4-01.6582won by 17
at Arizona-St
4Wisconsin
AP=9
3-01.6162Bye
5Utah
AP=17
4-01.5915won by 7
at Air-Force
6TCU
AP=24
4-01.5719won by 41
at SMU
7Wake-Forest
AP=16
3-01.5581won by 9
at Florida-St
8Vanderbilt
AP=21
4-01.5537won by 6
at Mississippi
9Florida
AP=4
3-01.5480won by 24
at Tennessee
10Ball-St 4-01.5417won by 22
at Indiana
11Kentucky 3-01.5369Bye
12Texas-Tech
AP=10
4-01.5268won by 42
vs Massachusetts
13Penn-St
AP=12
4-01.5149won by 42
vs Temple
14Nebraska 3-01.5132Bye
15Oklahoma
AP=2
3-01.5127Bye
16Missouri
AP=6
4-01.5061won by 21
vs Buffalo
17Texas
AP=7
3-01.5054won by 42
vs Rice
18Minnesota4-01.4943won by 34
vs Florida-Atlantic
19LSU
AP=5
3-01.4809won by 5
at Auburn
20Tulsa 3-01.4708won by 42
vs New-Mexico
21Georgia-Tech 3-11.4674won by 31
vs Mississippi-St
22Fresno-St
AP=25
2-11.4356won by 1
at Toledo
23Boise-St
AP=19
3-01.4290won by 5
at Oregon
24Virginia-Tech 3-11.4254won by 3
at North-Carolina
25Oklahoma-St 3-01.4210Bye
26Mississippi2-21.4051lost by 6
vs Vanderbilt
27East-Carolina
AP=23
3-11.4045lost by 6
at NC-State
28Kansas
AP=18
3-11.4041won by 24
vs Sam-Houston-St
29Michigan-St3-11.4012won by 16
vs Notre-Dame
30South-Florida
AP=13
4-01.3921won by 8
at Florida-Intl

Other notable teams:

APAPR
BYU 1133
Ohio St 1435
Auburn 1541
Clemson 2054
Illinois2274