Saturday, October 31, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 9

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑2)Texas
BCS=2
8-08.1502
(LW × 1.147)
won by 27
at Oklahoma-St
2 (↓1)Florida
BCS=1
8-07.7337
(LW × 1.024)
won by 24
vs Georgia
3 (↓1)Alabama
BCS=3
8-06.7361
(LW × 0.931)
Bye
4 (↑4)Oregon
BCS=8
7-16.5810
(LW × 1.165)
won by 27
vs USC
5 (↓1)TCU
BCS=6
8-05.7228
(LW × 0.907)
won by 41
vs UNLV
6 (↑5)Texas-Tech6-35.7124
(LW × 1.129)
won by 21
vs Kansas
7 (↓1)Georgia-Tech
BCS=10
8-15.6927
(LW × 0.941)
won by 25
at Vanderbilt
8 (↑1)Oklahoma
BCS=24
5-35.5014
(LW × 1.000)
won by 12
vs Kansas-St
9 (↓2)Iowa
BCS=4
9-05.4541
(LW × 0.958)
won by 18
vs Indiana
10 (↓5)Virginia-Tech
BCS=23
5-35.3417
(LW × 0.866)
lost by 3
vs North-Carolina
11 (↑13)Texas-A&M5-35.3386
(LW × 1.229)
won by 25
vs Iowa-St
12 (↑1)Arkansas4-45.0788
(LW × 1.018)
won by 36
vs East-Michigan
13 (↑3)Penn-St
BCS=11
8-14.9822
(LW × 1.029)
won by 21
at Northwestern
14 (↓2)Cincinnati
BCS=5
8-04.9208
(LW × 0.981)
won by 21
at Syracuse
15 (↑7)Ohio-St
BCS=16
7-24.7282
(LW × 1.076)
won by 45
vs New-Mexico-St
16 (↓2)LSU
BCS=9
7-14.6905
(LW × 0.957)
won by 42
vs Tulane
17 (-)Boise-St
BCS=7
8-04.5680
(LW × 0.946)
won by 38
vs San-Jose-St
18 (↑3)Pittsburgh
BCS=13
7-14.5458
(LW × 1.014)
Bye
19 (↓9)USC
BCS=12
6-24.5168
(LW × 0.863)
lost by 27
at Oregon
20 (↓1)Oklahoma-St
BCS=19
6-24.4619
(LW × 0.954)
lost by 27
vs Texas
21 (↑13)Auburn6-34.4079
(LW × 1.192)
won by 13
vs Mississippi
22 (↑1)Tennessee4-44.3667
(LW × 0.998)
won by 18
vs South-Carolina
23 (↓5)Clemson5-34.3294
(LW × 0.910)
won by 46
vs Coastal-Carolina
24 (↑4)Houston
BCS=15
7-14.2671
(LW × 1.055)
won by 7
vs Southern-Miss
25 (↓10)Miami-FL
BCS=17
6-24.2421
(LW × 0.867)
won by 1
at Wake-Forest
26 (↓6)Mississippi5-34.0082
(LW × 0.880)
lost by 13
at Auburn
27 (-)Kansas-St5-43.9996
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 12
at Oklahoma
28 (↑2)Nebraska5-33.9711
(LW × 0.995)
won by 10
at Baylor
29 (↑20)Wisconsin
BCS=21
6-23.9421
(LW × 1.304)
won by 37
vs Purdue
30 (↓4)Arizona
BCS=18
5-23.9367
(LW × 0.930)
Bye
31 (↓6)Notre-Dame
BCS=22
6-23.9184
(LW × 0.921)
won by 26
vs Washington-St

Other Notable Teams:
36 (↓3)California
BCS=20
6-23.4804
(LW × 0.939)
won by 2
at Arizona-St
41 (-)Utah
BCS=14
7-13.3603
(LW × 1.024)
won by 12
vs Wyoming
49 (↓1)South-Florida
BCS=25
5-23.0344
(LW × 0.999)
Bye

Comments:

  • This ranking doesn't include the Marshall @ UCF game, scheduled for Sunday night. But since both teams are down in the weeds, it shouldn't be a big deal.

  • Texas and Florida are head-and-shoulders above everyone else. There's another big drop-off between #5 TCU and #6 Texas Tech.

  • Oregon moves up to a well-earned spot at #4—they just dominated USC for the whole game.

  • In spite of the 18-point final margin, Iowa was in real trouble this weekend. At one point in the 3rd quarter, they were down 21-7, and didn't go down more thanks to the flukiest interception I've ever seen.

  • Iowa still needs to play at Ohio State in a couple weeks, so (especially given the way they played today), it's not going to be a cake-walk for them to finish unbeaten.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

NFL Week 8 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Picks for week 8.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com, except for Rams @ Lions, which is from footballlocks.com).

GameAPRSRSLine
Carolina Panthers @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=4.0142
Cardinals
δ=17.71
Cardinals
-10
Denver Broncos @
Baltimore Ravens
Broncos
ρ=2.0234
Broncos
δ=4.18
Ravens
-3
Jacksonville Jaguars @
Tennessee Titans
Jaguars
ρ=1.8800
Jaguars
δ=6.69
Titans
-3
Oakland Raiders @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.7844
Chargers
δ=17.84
Chargers
-17
San Francisco 49ers @
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
ρ=1.7340
Colts
δ=10.87
Colts
-12½
Atlanta Falcons @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=1.6845
Saints
δ=12.02
Saints
-10
Cleveland Browns @
Chicago Bears
Bears
ρ=1.6518
Bears
δ=9.32
Bears
-13½
Seattle Seahawks @
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.5816
Cowboys
δ=4.13
Cowboys
-9½
Houston Texans @
Buffalo Bills
Texans
ρ=1.4917
Texans
δ=1.22
Texans
-3½
New York Giants @
Philadelphia Eagles
Giants
ρ=1.3622
Giants
δ=3.84
Eagles
-1
Miami Dolphins @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.1962
Jets
δ=1.28
Jets
-3½
St. Louis Rams @
Detroit Lions
Lions
ρ=1.1309
Lions
δ=10.11
Lions
-4
Minnesota Vikings @
Green Bay Packers
Vikings
ρ=1.1281
Packers
δ=1.08
Packers
-3
Bye: Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

Comments:

  • The Ravens have lost 3 in a row. That could extend to 4 unless either A) APR is very wrong about where it has the Ravens and Broncos ranked, or B) they get a fluke upset.

  • Titans over Jaguars? Maybe. The Jaguars have trouble when MJD doesn't get going, and the Titans seem to have an OK run defense. But what happens to the Titans' offense if Vince Young gets the start?

  • Eagles over Giants? Bigger upsets have happened. But the Eagles have to hold Westbrook out, don't they?

  • If the Vikings win this weekend, they will have a 3½ game lead (with the head-to-head tie breaker) over the Packers. The Packers really need to win to have much hope of winning the division this year.

  • Want to know something bad about living in Arizona? Every home game and every away game in the division the Cardinals play on Sunday afternoon gets scheduled in the late slot. Which means a lot of times we don't get to see the marquee FOX games that get scheduled at the same time.

What to do when you're 0-7

Q:How can you tell a head coach with a terrible offense?
A:He's the one changing quarterbacks until the problem is fixed.

Q:How can you tell a head coach with a terrible defense?
A:He's the one changing quarterbacks until the problem is fixed.

[Adapted from the Jargon File]

On a related note, the Bucs are going to start rookie QB Josh Freeman in their next game. I saw Freeman play in a preseason game, and he was just awful. I think Buccaneers' fans have to contemplate the real possibility of an 0-16 season this year.

Update: and Vince Young will start for the Titans.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 7

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
6-06.3765
(LW × 1.085)
won by 12
at Dolphins
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
6-05.1700
(LW × 0.932)
won by 36
at Rams
3 (↑1)Denver
Broncos
6-05.0643
(LW × 1.091)
Bye
4 (↑2)Arizona
Cardinals
4-24.6512
(LW × 1.096)
won by 7
at Giants
5 (↓2)Atlanta
Falcons
4-23.7855
(LW × 0.775)
lost by 16
at Cowboys
6 (↓1)New England
Patriots
5-23.7574
(LW × 0.856)
won by 28
at Buccaneers
7 (↑14)Dallas
Cowboys
4-23.6766
(LW × 1.659)
won by 16
vs Falcons
8 (↑4)Cincinnati
Bengals
5-23.6732
(LW × 1.321)
won by 35
vs Bears
9 (↓1)New York
Jets
4-33.5278
(LW × 1.052)
won by 38
at Raiders
10 (↑1)Houston
Texans
4-33.4532
(LW × 1.143)
won by 3
vs 49ers
11 (↑3)Pittsburgh
Steelers
5-23.4084
(LW × 1.278)
won by 10
vs Vikings
12 (↓5)Minnesota
Vikings
6-13.1984
(LW × 0.915)
lost by 10
at Steelers
13 (↓4)San Francisco
49ers
3-32.9815
(LW × 0.928)
lost by 3
at Texans
14 (↓4)Miami
Dolphins
2-42.9492
(LW × 0.946)
lost by 12
vs Saints
15 (↑1)Green Bay
Packers
4-22.8353
(LW × 1.118)
won by 28
at Browns
16 (↓1)New York
Giants
5-22.6400
(LW × 0.997)
lost by 7
vs Cardinals
17 (↑1)Jacksonville
Jaguars
3-32.6004
(LW × 1.081)
Bye
18 (↓5)Chicago
Bears
3-32.5293
(LW × 0.912)
lost by 35
at Bengals
19 (-)San Diego
Chargers
3-32.5285
(LW × 1.077)
won by 30
at Chiefs
20 (↓3)Baltimore
Ravens
3-32.5028
(LW × 1.005)
Bye
21 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
2-42.3246
(LW × 1.019)
Bye
22 (-)Buffalo
Bills
3-42.3149
(LW × 1.052)
won by 11
at Panthers
23 (-)Philadelphia
Eagles
4-21.9380
(LW × 0.938)
won by 10
at Redskins
24 (↑1)Cleveland
Browns
1-61.5313
(LW × 1.032)
lost by 28
vs Packers
25 (↓1)Oakland
Raiders
2-51.4170
(LW × 0.936)
lost by 38
vs Jets
26 (-)Tennessee
Titans
0-61.3832
(LW × 1.046)
Bye
27 (-)Carolina
Panthers
2-41.1587
(LW × 0.932)
lost by 11
vs Bills
28 (-)Detroit
Lions
1-51.1482
(LW × 1.051)
Bye
29 (-)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-61.0406
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 30
vs Chargers
30 (-)St. Louis
Rams
0-71.0154
(LW × 1.063)
lost by 36
vs Colts
31 (-)Washington
Redskins
2-50.8425
(LW × 0.982)
lost by 10
vs Eagles
32 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
0-70.7385
(LW × 1.157)
lost by 28
vs Patriots

Comments

  • A note for Saints fans: even when you go on to win, it's just not good to fall behind 24-3, and it's not good to give up 34 points. You can be sure every team that has the Saints on their schedule will be studying this weeks game tape, watching for what the Dolphins did right, and what they did to blow that lead.

  • #4 seems high for the Cardinals. But I don't see enough solid teams to push them out of the top 10 right now, either.

  • I'm not sure what to make of the Texans—they started out 1-2, including a squeaker win over the hapless Titans. But since then, they nearly came back on the Cardinals, and beat the Bengals and 49ers. They've got enough soft teams on their schedule, if they can maintain that level of play, the Texans have a decent shot at a playoff berth.

  • This may be a big piece of the Texans' resurgance: Matt Schaub has been playing at a pro-bowl level. He is ranked #3 in passing yards/game, and has 16 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Eagles (+11)
The Eagles' victory over the Redskins does not impress. They only had two drives longer than 40 yards, and most of that came on just two plays. If the Redskins' offense wasn't such a trainwreck, they would've had a real chance to win.

Giants (+8)
No quality wins, and two big-time losses, yet ESPN still has the Giants in their top 10. Go figure. Update: I just noticed that the Cowboys have jumped into the top 10, so (for now), I have to credit the Giants with one (1) quality win.

I might also say that one of my original motivations for developing APR was an ESPN power ranking that (I felt) had the Giants ranked too high.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Texans (-7), 49ers (-7)
A couple of teams that have displayed uneven quality so far this season. It may not be until late in the season before we know the true measure of either.

Monday, October 26, 2009

NFL Week 7 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 7.

Unanimous picks (7-0)

Correctly picked:

Patriots @ Buccaneers
Colts @ Rams
Eagles @ Redskins
Chargers @ Chiefs
Jets @ Raiders
Saints @ Dolphins
Packers @ Browns

First time the unanimous picks have all been correct! Of course, that's at least partly because nearly half the picks this week were split...

Split Picks (APR 3-3, SRS 1-5, Line 4-2)

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
The Cowboys played their best game of the year. And the Falcons are awful on the road (4-9 since last year, counting the playoff loss). I really need to split out home power and road power, if only for the NFC South.

Bills (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
The Panthers had wins against two of the worst teams in the NFL, but they are still pretty bad themselves, especially on the road.

Cardinals (APR) @ Giants (SRS, Line)
APR is vindicated! Though the Giants made it very interesting, thanks in part to that deflected pass caught and run in for a touchdown.

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
The Vikings have been skating on thin ice all season. The games against even moderately good teams have all come down to the final plays. And the whole deal with Favre is: sometimes you get endgame heroics, and sometimes you get endgame disaster.

49ers (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)
Did APR have the 49ers overrated? They still don't have a win outside the NFC West.

Bears (SRS) @ Bengals (APR, Line)
The Bears are just 1-3 on the road this season, with the one win coming on a 6-point victory over the Hasselbeck-less Seahawks.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR 10-359-2867.8%
SRS  8-558-2966.7%
Line 11-259-2867.8%
Unanimous 7-045-1476.3%

New power rankings, and Week 8 picks to come.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 8

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)Florida
BCS=1
7-07.5491
(LW × 1.016)
won by 10
at Mississippi-St
2 (↓1)Alabama
BCS=2
8-07.2354
(LW × 0.961)
won by 2
vs Tennessee
3 (-)Texas
BCS=3
7-07.1082
(LW × 1.011)
won by 24
at Missouri
4 (↑3)TCU
BCS=6
7-06.3121
(LW × 1.136)
won by 31
at BYU
5 (↓1)Virginia-Tech
BCS=13
5-26.1698
(LW × 1.013)
Bye
6 (↑4)Georgia-Tech
BCS=11
7-16.0470
(LW × 1.157)
won by 25
at Virginia
7 (↓2)Iowa
BCS=4
8-05.6931
(LW × 0.975)
won by 2
at Michigan-St
8 (↑3)Oregon
BCS=10
6-15.6466
(LW × 1.089)
won by 24
at Washington
9 (↑7)Oklahoma4-35.4988
(LW × 1.286)
won by 22
at Kansas
10 (↓2)USC
BCS=5
6-15.2348
(LW × 0.951)
won by 6
vs Oregon-St
11 (↓5)Texas-Tech5-35.0575
(LW × 0.902)
lost by 22
vs Texas-A&M
12 (↓3)Cincinnati
BCS=8
7-05.0185
(LW × 0.950)
won by 31
vs Louisville
13 (-)Arkansas3-44.9873
(LW × 1.008)
lost by 13
at Mississippi
14 (↑10)LSU
BCS=9
6-14.9021
(LW × 1.239)
won by 21
vs Auburn
15 (↓1)Miami-FL
BCS=19
5-24.8947
(LW × 0.991)
lost by 3
vs Clemson
16 (↑9)Penn-St
BCS=12
7-14.8428
(LW × 1.226)
won by 25
at Michigan
17 (↓5)Boise-St
BCS=7
7-04.8303
(LW × 0.964)
won by 45
at Hawaii
18 (-)Clemson4-34.7584
(LW × 1.139)
won by 3
at Miami-FL
19 (↑12)Oklahoma-St
BCS=14
6-14.6779
(LW × 1.259)
won by 27
at Baylor
20 (↑21)Mississippi
BCS=25
5-24.5543
(LW × 1.387)
won by 13
vs Arkansas
21 (↑9)Pittsburgh
BCS=15
7-14.4826
(LW × 1.203)
won by 27
vs South-Florida
22 (↑1)Ohio-St
BCS=17
6-24.3937
(LW × 1.102)
won by 31
vs Minnesota
23 (↓6)Tennessee3-44.3739
(LW × 1.044)
lost by 2
at Alabama
24 (↑54)Texas-A&M4-34.3423
(LW × 2.141)
won by 22
at Texas-Tech
25 (↓3)Notre-Dame
BCS=23
5-24.2533
(LW × 1.050)
won by 4
vs Boston-Coll
26 (↑3)Arizona
BCS=20
5-24.2308
(LW × 1.125)
won by 14
vs UCLA
27 (↑36)Kansas-St5-34.1263
(LW × 1.606)
won by 14
vs Colorado
28 (-)Houston
BCS=18
6-14.0444
(LW × 1.060)
won by 23
vs SMU
29 (↓14)Kansas5-24.0051
(LW × 0.846)
lost by 22
vs Oklahoma
30 (↓11)Nebraska4-33.9915
(LW × 0.959)
lost by 2
vs Iowa-St

Other notable teams:
31 (↓11)West-Virginia
BCS=21
6-13.9646
(LW × 0.963)
won by 4
vs Connecticut
33 (↓7)California
BCS=24
5-23.7077
(LW × 0.962)
won by 32
vs Washington-St
41 (↑3)Utah
BCS=16
6-13.2820
(LW × 1.046)
won by 7
vs Air-Force
44 (↑5)South-Carolina
BCS=22
6-23.1103
(LW × 1.040)
won by 4
vs Vanderbilt

Comments:

  • Note there is a major drop-off of power from #3 to #4. TCU would need another 13% increase to overtake where Texas is now.

  • Arkansas is getting an enormous amount of power from their last three games (beat Auburn, lost by 2 @ Florida, lost by 13 @ Mississippi).

  • And Texas A&M is getting an enormous amount of power from their win over Texas Tech (nearly three times as much as their next-most powerful game).

  • UCLA played Arizona as close as they did thanks to the Wildcats giving up 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles. With Washington State, Cal, and ASU coming up, Arizona has a decent shot to get to 8 wins this season.

  • Congratulations to the Arizona Wildcats for their BCS ranking! They've got a bye next week, so they've got at least two more weeks to enjoy it.

  • California seems like a pretty shaky team to be ranked. Two big-time losses to Oregon and USC are not a good sign.

Friday, October 23, 2009

NFL: 0-6? It's worse than you think

After reading this post on profootballtalk, I started looking to see who was the best team to start 0-6. The answer? They've all been so bad, it hardly matters.

I limited my candidates to the seasons since the NFL expanded to a 16-game regular season (1978-2008), and eliminated the strike-shortened years of 1982 and 1987. The following is a summary of what I came up with.

How they finished:

Final
Standing
# of
Teams
6-103
4-11-11
4-128
3-138
2-1410
1-156
0-161
Total37

This does not include the 2009 Titans, Buccaneers, and Rams, whose final standings are to be decided. But that whole notion of "running the table"? Yeah, Titan fans can forget that.

Other Observations

  • Of the 35 teams who have completed the following season, 23 (65.7%) finished at or below 6 wins the next season too.

  • Only 6 of those 35 teams finished with a winning record the following season, with the 1998 Redskins and 2008 Dolphins the only teams to make it to 10 wins.

  • The Bengals are easily the team with the most appearances (8) on this list, with the Colts a distant second (4 appearances).

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

NFL Week 7 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Picks for week 7.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
New England Patriots @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Patriots
ρ=6.8778
Patriots
δ=30.71
Patriots
-14½
Indianapolis Colts @
St. Louis Rams
Colts
ρ=5.8106
Colts
δ=30.68
Colts
-13
Philadelphia Eagles @
Washington Redskins
Eagles
ρ=2.4067
Eagles
δ=14.71
Eagles
-7
San Diego Chargers @
Kansas City Chiefs
Chargers
ρ=2.2170
Chargers
δ=9.02
Chargers
-5
New York Jets @
Oakland Raiders
Jets
ρ=2.2150
Jets
δ=16.60
Jets
-6½
Atlanta Falcons @
Dallas Cowboys
Falcons
ρ=2.2042
Falcons
δ=12.27
Cowboys
-4
New Orleans Saints @
Miami Dolphins
Saints
ρ=1.8849
Saints
δ=13.36
Saints
-7
Buffalo Bills @
Carolina Panthers
Bills
ρ=1.7707
Bills
δ=7.81
Panthers
-7
Green Bay Packers @
Cleveland Browns
Packers
ρ=1.7090
Packers
δ=13.75
Packers
-7
Arizona Cardinals @
New York Giants
Cardinals
ρ=1.6031
Giants
δ=0.44
Giants
-7
Minnesota Vikings @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Vikings
ρ=1.3105
Vikings
δ=7.36
Steelers
-4
San Francisco 49ers @
Houston Texans
49ers
ρ=1.0639
49ers
δ=7.30
Texans
-3
Chicago Bears @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0021
Bears
δ=4.13
Bengals
-1½

Bye: Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans

Comments:

  • What do you suppose the O/U for Patriots points + Colts points scored this week is—80? 90?

  • The Jets really need to win this week, or things are going to get real ugly for Rex Ryan.

  • If APR is anywhere near right... Cardinals should at least make a game of it against the Giants. I just hope it's not another east coast blow-out like the ones they had last year (@ Jets, @ Patrtiots, @ Eagles).

  • I would be more confident the in Steelers winning if they had put more of a beat-down on the Browns last week.

  • Bears @ Bengals is a push. The Bears probably need the win more (they are already 2½ games behind the Vikings), but that's probably not going to be enough.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 6

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
5-05.8781
(LW × 1.189)
won by 21
vs Giants
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
5-05.5481
(LW × 1.193)
Bye
3 (-)Atlanta
Falcons
4-14.8854
(LW × 1.051)
won by 7
vs Bears
4 (↑1)Denver
Broncos
6-04.6434
(LW × 1.111)
won by 11
at Chargers
5 (↓1)New England
Patriots
4-24.3882
(LW × 1.037)
won by 59
vs Titans
6 (↑5)Arizona
Cardinals
3-24.2446
(LW × 1.567)
won by 24
at Seahawks
7 (↓1)Minnesota
Vikings
6-03.4953
(LW × 0.956)
won by 2
vs Ravens
8 (↓1)New York
Jets
3-33.3549
(LW × 0.994)
lost by 3
vs Bills
9 (↑1)San Francisco
49ers
3-23.2140
(LW × 1.119)
Bye
10 (↑3)Miami
Dolphins
2-33.1186
(LW × 1.217)
Bye
11 (↑13)Houston
Texans
3-33.0209
(LW × 2.125)
won by 11
at Bengals
12 (↓4)Cincinnati
Bengals
4-22.7803
(LW × 0.842)
lost by 11
vs Texans
13 (↓4)Chicago
Bears
3-22.7745
(LW × 0.885)
lost by 7
at Falcons
14 (↑1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
4-22.6671
(LW × 1.055)
won by 13
vs Browns
15 (↑4)New York
Giants
5-12.6477
(LW × 1.229)
lost by 21
at Saints
16 (↓4)Green Bay
Packers
3-22.5366
(LW × 0.964)
won by 26
vs Lions
17 (↓3)Baltimore
Ravens
3-32.4899
(LW × 0.978)
lost by 2
at Vikings
18 (↑3)Jacksonville
Jaguars
3-32.4062
(LW × 1.215)
won by 3
vs Rams
19 (↓2)San Diego
Chargers
2-32.3472
(LW × 1.030)
lost by 11
vs Broncos
20 (↓4)Seattle
Seahawks
2-42.2815
(LW × 0.998)
lost by 24
vs Cardinals
21 (↓1)Dallas
Cowboys
3-22.2164
(LW × 1.102)
Bye
22 (-)Buffalo
Bills
2-42.2002
(LW × 1.457)
won by 3
at Jets
23 (↓5)Philadelphia
Eagles
3-22.0652
(LW × 0.935)
lost by 4
at Raiders
24 (↑5)Oakland
Raiders
2-41.5146
(LW × 1.618)
won by 4
vs Eagles
25 (↓2)Cleveland
Browns
1-51.4843
(LW × 1.032)
lost by 13
at Steelers
26 (-)Tennessee
Titans
0-61.3225
(LW × 1.184)
lost by 59
at Patriots
27 (-)Carolina
Panthers
2-31.2426
(LW × 1.139)
won by 7
at Buccaneers
28 (↓3)Detroit
Lions
1-51.0921
(LW × 0.917)
lost by 26
at Packers
29 (↑2)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-51.0587
(LW × 1.498)
won by 8
at Redskins
30 (-)St. Louis
Rams
0-60.9548
(LW × 1.166)
lost by 3
at Jaguars
31 (↓3)Washington
Redskins
2-40.8581
(LW × 0.905)
lost by 8
vs Chiefs
32 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
0-60.6380
(LW × 1.102)
lost by 7
vs Panthers

Comments

  • At their current level of power, the Redskins' best shot at a third win this season comes week 14, at Oakland.

  • The Jets are being held up by their wins over the Patriots (#5) and Texans (#11). Whether the Texans are worth that #11 ranking is another question.

  • The Dolphins, in spite of their (currently) losing record, have a couple close losses against the Colts (#2) and Falcons (#3), as well as a win over the Jets (#7).

  • Compare them to the Chargers, who have a couple of 10+ point losses, and a close win over the Raiders (#24).

  • Also note the Giants move up 4 spots, in spite of losing by 21. Playing quality opponents matters to APR, even when you lose big.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Eagles (+11)
The Eagles still haven't beaten a quality team, and now they've lost to the Raiders.

Giants (+10)
The first quality team the Giants faced owned them for the whole game. There's just no way I buy them as a top 5, or even top 10 team.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Cardinals (-10)
I'm not sure how much to believe APR's high ranking of the Cardinals. Presumably the results of Sunday Night Football will bring APR and ESPN closer together, win or lose.

Dolphins (-10)
The teams that beat them are a combined 11-4.

Jets (-10)
Two of the Jets' losses were on the road, and two relatively close (within 4 points). Still, it does seem a bit odd APR hasn't dropped the Jets more than it has.

Monday, October 19, 2009

NFL Week 6 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 6.

Unanimous picks (8-3)

Correctly picked:

Titans @ Patriots
Rams @ Jaguars
Giants @ Saints
Lions @ Packers
Panthers @ Buccaneers
Browns @ Steelers
Bears @ Falcons
Ravens @ Vikings

Not so much:

Eagles @ Raiders
I noted last year that some times the Eagles' offense goes into hibernation. They now join the Chiefs as the only teams not to score at least 23 points on the Raiders this season.

Bills @ Jets
How bad is the Bills offense that they could barely score 16 ponts, even with the help of 6 interceptions from their defense?

Texans @ Bengals
More hot-and-cold from the Texans: they played a solid game, and took advantage of the Bengals' mistakes. The Bengals, on the other hand, have a bad habit playing down to the level of their opponents (c.f. the week 4 game at Cleveland).

Split Picks (APR 2-1, SRS 3-0, Line 0-3)

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
Like I said in the picks, the Broncos are clearly better than they were last year. Maybe Kyle Orton still has a melt-down coming, but the Chargers aren't the team to make it happen.

Chiefs (SRS) @ Redskins (APR, Line)
The real question is, how did the Redskins ever get two wins? They join the Raiders as the only teams that haven's scored at least 26 points on the Chiefs this season.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Seahawks (Line)
Now we know: even with Hasselbeck playing, the Seahawks aren't very good: they had just one drive go more than 32 yards, and didn't convert on 3rd down all day.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR 10-449-2566.2%
SRS 11-350-2467.6%
Line  8-660-3066.7%
Unanimous 8-338-1473.1%

New power rankings, and Week 7 picks to come.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 7

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Alabama
AP=1
7-07.5253
(LW × 0.929)
won by 14
vs South-Carolina
2 (-)Florida
AP=2
6-07.4327
(LW × 1.011)
won by 3
vs Arkansas
3 (↑2)Texas
AP=3
6-07.0277
(LW × 1.260)
won by 3
vs Oklahoma
4 (↓1)Virginia-Tech
AP=15
5-26.0916
(LW × 0.920)
lost by 5
at Georgia-Tech
5 (↑4)Iowa
AP=7
7-05.8404
(LW × 1.141)
won by 10
at Wisconsin
6 (↑41)Texas-Tech
AP=21
5-25.6090
(LW × 1.864)
won by 21
at Nebraska
7 (↑6)TCU
AP=10
6-05.5548
(LW × 1.208)
won by 38
vs Colorado-St
8 (↑2)USC
AP=4
5-15.5062
(LW × 1.078)
won by 7
at Notre-Dame
9 (↑2)Cincinnati
AP=5
6-05.2810
(LW × 1.058)
won by 17
at South-Florida
10 (↑15)Georgia-Tech
AP=11
6-15.2252
(LW × 1.379)
won by 5
vs Virginia-Tech
11 (↑1)Oregon
AP=12
5-15.1857
(LW × 1.058)
Bye
12 (↓5)Boise-St
AP=6
6-05.0124
(LW × 0.924)
won by 7
at Tulsa
13 (↓9)Arkansas
AP=rv(8)
3-34.9464
(LW × 0.881)
lost by 3
at Florida
14 (↑2)Miami-FL
AP=8
5-14.9389
(LW × 1.114)
won by 20
at UCF
15 (↓9)Kansas
AP=24
5-14.7366
(LW × 0.864)
lost by 4
at Colorado
16 (↑2)Oklahoma
AP=25
3-34.2743
(LW × 0.990)
lost by 3
at Texas
17 (-)Tennessee3-34.1882
(LW × 0.969)
Bye
18 (↑21)Clemson3-34.1767
(LW × 1.304)
won by 35
vs Wake-Forest
19 (↓11)Nebraska
AP=rv(52)
4-24.1638
(LW × 0.776)
lost by 21
vs Texas-Tech
20 (↑10)West-Virginia
AP=22
5-14.1168
(LW × 1.146)
won by 17
vs Marshall
21 (↓1)Auburn
AP=rv(3)
5-24.1155
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 7
vs Kentucky
22 (↓7)Notre-Dame
AP=rv(61)
4-24.0510
(LW × 0.910)
lost by 7
vs USC
23 (↓9)Ohio-St
AP=18
5-23.9856
(LW × 0.870)
lost by 8
at Purdue
24 (↓2)LSU
AP=9
5-13.9557
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
25 (↑23)Penn-St
AP=13
6-13.9490
(LW × 1.335)
won by 20
vs Minnesota
26 (↑18)California
AP=rv(9)
4-23.8537
(LW × 1.263)
won by 19
at UCLA
27 (↓4)Oregon-St
AP=rv(5)
4-23.8197
(LW × 0.983)
Bye
28 (↑15)Houston
AP=17
5-13.8162
(LW × 1.249)
won by 28
at Tulane
29 (↑3)Arizona
AP=rv(25)
4-23.7612
(LW × 1.094)
won by 5
vs Stanford
30 (↓6)Pittsburgh
AP=20
6-13.7251
(LW × 0.973)
won by 7
at Rutgers

Other Notable Teams:
31 (↑5)Oklahoma-St
AP=14
5-13.7155
(LW × 1.104)
won by 16
vs Missouri
34 (↓15)South-Florida
AP=rv(57)
5-13.5995
(LW × 0.859)
lost by 17
vs Cincinnati
36 (↓8)Michigan
AP=rv(41)
5-23.4231
(LW × 0.929)
won by 57
vs Delaware-St
38 (↑12)Boston-Coll
AP=rv(3)
5-23.3451
(LW × 1.151)
won by 32
vs NC-State
41 (↑5)Mississippi
AP=rv(59)
4-23.2839
(LW × 1.090)
won by 35
vs UAB
42 (↓13)Wisconsin
AP=rv(4)
5-23.1596
(LW × 0.869)
lost by 10
vs Iowa
44 (↓4)Utah
AP=19
5-13.1367
(LW × 0.985)
won by 20
at UNLV
45 (↓11)BYU
AP=16
6-13.1303
(LW × 0.918)
won by 10
at San-Diego-St
49 (↑2)South-Carolina
AP=23
5-22.9914
(LW × 1.031)
lost by 14
at Alabama
53 (↓4)Navy
AP=rv(4)
5-22.8929
(LW × 0.982)
won by 3
at SMU
55 (↑14)Cent-Michigan
AP=rv(39)
6-12.8362
(LW × 1.274)
won by 11
at W-Michigan
57 (↓24)Missouri
AP=rv(4)
4-22.7369
(LW × 0.800)
lost by 16
at Oklahoma-St
64 (↓10)Idaho
AP=rv(4)
6-12.5438
(LW × 0.932)
won by 12
vs Hawaii

Comments:

  • APR hsa Alabama and Florida ranked very close. Texas isn't too far away, but there's a big drop off in the power index to #4 Virginia Tech.

  • Arkansas justifies their high ranking (in spite of their now 3-3 record) by playing Florida very close.

  • Iowa has a good shot at finishing undefeated. All their remaining games are in the Big 10, with Ohio State the only team on that list better than 4-3 right now.

  • Arizona gets a flukey, come-from-behind win over Stanford, a week after giving up a flukey, come-from-behind win to Washington.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

NFL Week 6 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Picks for week 6.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

GameAPRSRSLine
Tennessee Titans @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=3.7882
Patriots
δ=16.94
Patriots
-9½
St. Louis Rams @
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=2.4183
Jaguars
δ=15.52
Jaguars
-10
Philadelphia Eagles @
Oakland Raiders
Eagles
ρ=2.3601
Eagles
δ=23.69
Eagles
-14
Houston Texans @
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals
ρ=2.3234
Bengals
δ=10.26
Bengals
-4½
New York Giants @
New Orleans Saints
Saints
ρ=2.2961
Saints
δ=13.24
Saints
-3
Buffalo Bills @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=2.2353
Jets
δ=11.92
Jets
-9½
Detroit Lions @
Green Bay Packers
Packers
ρ=2.2106
Packers
δ=9.15
Packers
-13½
Carolina Panthers @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Panthers
ρ=1.8831
Panthers
δ=5.30
Panthers
-3
Denver Broncos @
San Diego Chargers
Broncos
ρ=1.8339
Broncos
δ=9.77
Chargers
-3½
Cleveland Browns @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.7569
Steelers
δ=11.46
Steelers
-14
Chicago Bears @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.4833
Falcons
δ=4.57
Falcons
-3½
Baltimore Ravens @
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.4368
Vikings
δ=0.27
Vikings
-3
Kansas City Chiefs @
Washington Redskins
Redskins
ρ=1.3412
Chiefs
δ=0.34
Redskins
-6½
Arizona Cardinals @
Seattle Seahawks
Cardinals
ρ=1.1849
Seahawks
δ=6.01
Seahawks
-3

Bye: Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers

Comments:

  • Other than a fluke upset, this week is probably the Buccaneers best chance to escape an 0-16 record this season.

  • The Lions haven't won a game in Wisconsin* since December, 1991. (* The Packers used to play a couple of "home" games in Milwaukee every season.)

  • Chargers -3½? The Broncos are clearly much improved over last year. Which is bad news for the Chargers, who seem to be about the same.

  • I think the Chiefs are at least a little better than the 2nd-to-last ranking APR gives them. They played the Cowboys to overtime last week, and played the Ravens close until the 4th quarter in week 1. It should also be noted that the Redskins win margins combined don't cover 6½.

  • It's hard to know how good the Seahawks are. Certainly, not very when Hasselbeck is out. This is probably a crucial win for the Cardinals if they want to challenge the 49ers for the division this year.

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 5

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)New Orleans
Saints
4-04.9457
(LW × 0.929)
Bye
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
5-04.6524
(LW × 0.941)
won by 22
at Titans
3 (↑7)Atlanta
Falcons
3-14.6500
(LW × 1.664)
won by 35
at 49ers
4 (↑1)New England
Patriots
3-24.2323
(LW × 1.231)
lost by 3
at Broncos
5 (↑2)Denver
Broncos
5-04.1802
(LW × 1.341)
won by 3
vs Patriots
6 (↓2)Minnesota
Vikings
5-03.6563
(LW × 0.930)
won by 28
at Rams
7 (↓4)New York
Jets
3-23.3766
(LW × 0.835)
lost by 4
at Dolphins
8 (↑1)Cincinnati
Bengals
4-13.3029
(LW × 1.125)
won by 3
at Ravens
9 (↑2)Chicago
Bears
3-13.1349
(LW × 1.170)
Bye
10 (↓2)San Francisco
49ers
3-22.8720
(LW × 0.948)
lost by 35
vs Falcons
11 (↓5)Arizona
Cardinals
2-22.7082
(LW × 0.804)
won by 7
vs Texans
12 (↑2)Green Bay
Packers
2-22.6314
(LW × 1.126)
Bye
13 (↑5)Miami
Dolphins
2-32.5621
(LW × 1.265)
won by 4
vs Jets
14 (↓1)Baltimore
Ravens
3-22.5448
(LW × 1.043)
lost by 3
vs Bengals
15 (-)Pittsburgh
Steelers
3-22.5275
(LW × 1.109)
won by 8
at Lions
16 (↑7)Seattle
Seahawks
2-32.2857
(LW × 1.689)
won by 41
vs Jaguars
17 (-)San Diego
Chargers
2-22.2795
(LW × 1.120)
Bye
18 (↓2)Philadelphia
Eagles
3-12.2093
(LW × 1.076)
won by 19
vs Buccaneers
19 (-)New York
Giants
5-02.1539
(LW × 1.102)
won by 37
vs Raiders
20 (-)Dallas
Cowboys
3-22.0111
(LW × 1.191)
won by 6
at Chiefs
21 (↓9)Jacksonville
Jaguars
2-31.9800
(LW × 0.741)
lost by 41
at Seahawks
22 (↓1)Buffalo
Bills
1-41.5106
(LW × 0.905)
lost by 3
vs Browns
23 (↑3)Cleveland
Browns
1-41.4386
(LW × 1.232)
won by 3
at Bills
24 (↓2)Houston
Texans
2-31.4216
(LW × 0.904)
lost by 7
at Cardinals
25 (↓1)Detroit
Lions
1-41.1903
(LW × 0.913)
lost by 8
vs Steelers
26 (↓1)Tennessee
Titans
0-51.1172
(LW × 0.929)
lost by 22
vs Colts
27 (↑3)Carolina
Panthers
1-31.0906
(LW × 1.581)
won by 3
vs Redskins
28 (-)Washington
Redskins
2-30.9480
(LW × 1.021)
lost by 3
at Panthers
29 (↓2)Oakland
Raiders
1-40.9361
(LW × 0.997)
lost by 37
at Giants
30 (↓1)St. Louis
Rams
0-50.8187
(LW × 1.173)
lost by 28
vs Vikings
31 (-)Kansas City
Chiefs
0-50.7068
(LW × 1.099)
lost by 6
vs Cowboys
32 (-)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
0-50.5791
(LW × 1.055)
lost by 19
at Eagles

Comments

  • In spite of their loss to the Broncos, The Patriots get a big boost via the Falcons stomp-down on the 49ers.

  • The Giants increase by about 10% on their dominating win of the Raiders, but it's not enough to move up the rankings. If they can beat the Saints next week, they should move up.

  • The Cowboys, on the other hand, nearly lost to the Chiefs. They had a lot of promising drives stall because of offensive penalties, and that's going to be a problem if it continues the rest of the season.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+17)
Their opponents are now a combined 6-19.

Eagles (+11)
The teams the Eagles have beat are a combined 1-13. They don't play anyone that APR has ranked higher than #17 until week 11, so they could be on this list for a while.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Cardinals (-8)
APR drops Arizona 5 spots on their unimpressive win over the Texans. The Cardinals have a weak schedule left to play, so APR and ESPN should close together as the season progresses.

Monday, October 12, 2009

NFL Week 5 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 5.

Unanimous picks (7-3)

Correctly picked:

Vikings @ Rams
Colts @ Titans
Buccaneers @ Eagles
Cowboys @ Chiefs
Texans @ Cardinals
Raiders @ Giants
Steelers @ Lions

Not so much:

Browns @ Bills
How did the Bills lose this game? Derek Anderson had just two(!!!) completed passes, and an interception. The Bills have to fire Dick Jauron... don't they?

Falcons @ 49ers
Singletary finds out it takes more than sideline pep-talks to win games. It seems like he's made a real difference to the 49ers; it would be a shame if he turned out to be a one-trick pony.

Jets @ Dolphins
The Jets' injuries on defense seem to be a real problem. Their first three games, they gave up on avergae just 11 points a game. The last two, they've given up 24 and 31. No matter how good Sanchez is, he's going to struggle if the offense needs to put up 4 touchdowns just to have a chance to win the game.

Split Picks (APR 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 2-2)

Jaguars (APR, SRS) @ Seahawks (Line)
The Jaguars are the 30th-ranked pass defense. How did they ever hold Peyton Manning's Colts to just 14 points in week 1?

Redskins (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
The Panthers finally find a team they can beat. Which is pretty shocking, considering they were the #2 NFC seed last year.

Bengals (APR) @ Ravens (SRS, Line)
The Bengals have clearly found a formula that works for them: play close, low scoring games, and take the lead on a late field goal.

Patriots (APR, Line) @ Broncos (SRS)
The fact that Kyle Orton seems to be prospering in the Broncos' system doesn't say a lot for the Bears' offensive coaches. The Broncos seem to have a soft schedule remaining, so they could already have enough of a lead to win the AFC West.

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR 8-639-2165.0%
SRS 8-639-2165.0%
Line 9-540-2066.7%
Unanimous7-330-1173.2%

New power rankings, and Week 5 picks to come.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 6

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Alabama
AP=2
6-08.0997
(LW × 1.203)
won by 19
at Mississippi
2 (↑3)Florida
AP=1
5-07.3533
(LW × 1.427)
won by 10
at LSU
3 (↑1)Virginia-Tech
AP=4
5-16.6194
(LW × 1.267)
won by 34
vs Boston-Coll
4 (↑27)Arkansas
AP=rv(16)
3-25.6156
(LW × 1.668)
won by 21
vs Auburn
5 (↓2)Texas
AP=3
5-05.5783
(LW × 1.047)
won by 24
vs Colorado
6 (-)Kansas
AP=17
5-05.4829
(LW × 1.066)
won by 5
vs Iowa-St
7 (↑4)Boise-St
AP=5
5-05.4273
(LW × 1.160)
Bye
8 (↑7)Nebraska
AP=15
4-15.3657
(LW × 1.233)
won by 15
at Missouri
9 (↓7)Iowa
AP=11
6-05.1204
(LW × 0.841)
won by 2
vs Michigan
10 (↓3)USC
AP=6
4-15.1063
(LW × 1.052)
Bye
11 (↑5)Cincinnati
AP=8
5-04.9902
(LW × 1.178)
Bye
12 (↑5)Oregon
AP=13
5-14.8997
(LW × 1.199)
won by 14
at UCLA
13 (-)TCU
AP=12
5-04.5981
(LW × 1.042)
won by 3
at Air-Force
14 (↑6)Ohio-St
AP=7
5-14.5796
(LW × 1.143)
won by 18
vs Wisconsin
15 (↑3)Notre-Dame
AP=25
4-14.4521
(LW × 1.092)
Bye
16 (↓7)Miami-FL
AP=9
4-14.4323
(LW × 0.939)
won by 32
vs Florida-A&M
17 (↑36)Tennessee3-34.3208
(LW × 1.682)
won by 26
vs Georgia
18 (↑3)Oklahoma
AP=20
3-24.3189
(LW × 1.098)
won by 26
vs Baylor
19 (↓5)South-Florida
AP=21
5-04.1892
(LW × 0.950)
Bye
20 (↓10)Auburn
AP=rv(55)
5-14.1736
(LW × 0.885)
lost by 21
at Arkansas
21 (↓13)Stanford
AP=rv(1)
4-24.0623
(LW × 0.856)
lost by 10
at Oregon-St
22 (↓10)LSU
AP=10
5-13.9589
(LW × 0.872)
lost by 10
vs Florida
23 (↑24)Oregon-St
AP=rv(2)
4-23.8849
(LW × 1.453)
won by 10
vs Stanford
24 (↓1)Pittsburgh
AP=rv(58)
5-13.8294
(LW × 1.017)
won by 3
vs Connecticut
25 (↓3)Georgia-Tech
AP=19
5-13.7883
(LW × 0.985)
won by 5
at Florida-St
26 (-)Washington3-33.7727
(LW × 1.049)
won by 3
vs Arizona
27 (↓8)Georgia3-33.7654
(LW × 0.936)
lost by 26
at Tennessee
28 (↑15)Michigan
AP=rv(5)
4-23.6829
(LW × 1.297)
lost by 2
at Iowa
29 (↓5)Wisconsin
AP=rv(27)
5-13.6343
(LW × 0.981)
lost by 18
at Ohio-St
30 (↑7)West-Virginia
AP=rv(46)
4-13.5923
(LW × 1.121)
won by 21
at Syracuse

Other Notable Teams:
32 (-)Arizona
AP=rv(5)
3-23.4392
(LW × 1.029)
lost by 3
at Washington
33 (↓4)Missouri
AP=rv(25)
4-13.4220
(LW × 0.990)
lost by 15
vs Nebraska
34 (↓1)BYU
AP=18
5-13.4104
(LW × 1.023)
won by 38
at UNLV
40 (↑9)Utah
AP=24
4-13.1843
(LW × 1.199)
won by 7
at Colorado-St
43 (↓3)Houston
AP=23
4-13.0552
(LW × 0.989)
won by 7
at Mississippi-St
46 (↓1)Mississippi
AP=rv(28)
3-23.0134
(LW × 1.111)
lost by 19
vs Alabama
47 (↓5)Texas-Tech
AP=rv(1)
4-23.0087
(LW × 1.032)
won by 52
vs Kansas-St
48 (↓14)Penn-St
AP=14
5-12.9574
(LW × 0.906)
won by 49
vs Eastern-Illinois
49 (↑3)Navy
AP=rv(1)
4-22.9457
(LW × 1.141)
won by 49
at Rice
51 (↓15)South-Carolina
AP=22
5-12.9001
(LW × 0.890)
won by 2
vs Kentucky
54 (↓3)Idaho
AP=rv(1)
5-12.7292
(LW × 1.043)
won by 4
at San-Jose-St
69 (↓3)Cent-Michigan
AP=rv(6)
5-12.2255
(LW × 1.007)
won by 48
vs East-Michigan

Comments:

  • Iowa gets another close home win against a lesser-ranked team, and again pays the price (not as much as if they had lost, of course).

  • Florida gets a solid road win over a high-ranked opponent, and they get their highest ranking as a result.

  • Should Arkansas be #4? They looked a lot more like a ranked team than Auburn for the part of that game I saw.

  • Arizona managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in dramatic fashion Saturday. Arizona lead for most of the second half, and were leading by 12 with 4:15 left in the 4th quarter. But they let Washington drive for a touchdown, and gave up a pick-6 on the first play of the following drive.

  • Navy, Idaho and Central Michigan? Really? Seriously, these teams haven't beaten anybody

Friday, October 9, 2009

NFL Strength Of Remaining Schedule, Q1

2009 Navigation Links

Strength of remaining schedule, following week 4
Read this for a description of APR

How this was computed:

  1. For each team, a list of teams was created, one for each opponent in all unplayed games (which means some division opponents are listed twice).

  2. In this version, each team is replaced with its Week 4 Power Index value.

  3. Each team's list of power index values are averaged together, giving something that hopefully represents the overall difficulty of the remaining schedule.

As usual, higher index values represent better teams, so a higher value here means a more difficult schedule.

RankTeamW-LStrength of
Schedule
1St. Louis Rams0-42.8959
2Carolina Panthers0-32.7617
3Tampa Bay Buccaneers0-42.7390
4Houston Texans2-22.6898
5Tennessee Titans0-42.6456
6Miami Dolphins1-32.5771
7Baltimore Ravens3-12.5708
8Chicago Bears3-12.4990
9New England Patriots3-12.4864
10Buffalo Bills1-32.4365
11New York Giants4-02.4102
12Detroit Lions1-32.3797
13Atlanta Falcons2-12.3451
14San Francisco 49ers3-12.2481
15Indianapolis Colts4-02.2214
16New York Jets3-12.1956
17Jacksonville Jaguars2-22.1489
18Seattle Seahawks1-32.1433
19Cincinnati Bengals3-12.1232
20Oakland Raiders1-32.1072
21Green Bay Packers2-22.0912
22Washington Redskins2-22.0816
23Minnesota Vikings4-02.0599
24Kansas City Chiefs0-42.0486
25Pittsburgh Steelers2-22.0372
26Denver Broncos4-02.0276
27Cleveland Browns0-42.0178
28Dallas Cowboys2-21.9452
29Philadelphia Eagles2-11.8680
30Arizona Cardinals1-21.7541
31San Diego Chargers2-21.6990
32New Orleans Saints4-01.5663

Comments:

  • No love for the Rams. They've got the Vikings, Colts, Saints, Cardinals (twice) and 49ers coming up. The good news (such as it is) is they've got some bottom-10 teams to play, like the Seahawks, Lions, and Titans(!), and so have at least a moderate chance of avoiding a winless season.

  • With a 4-0 start, and a very easy remaining schedule, is it too soon to start talking about a bye week for the Saints? (Yeah, probably.)

  • The Cardinals also have an easy schedule; the 49ers have some work to do before they can claim the NFC West crown.

  • The Panthers and Buccaneers can't both go winless this season (assuming they don't both finish 0-14-2).

I'll take a look at this again after weeks 8 and 12.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

NFL Week 5 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Picks for week 5.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except for Jaguars @ Seahawks, which is from footballlocks.com).

GameAPRSRSLine
Minnesota Vikings @
St. Louis Rams
Vikings
ρ=5.6317
Vikings
δ=29.18
Vikings
-9
Indianapolis Colts @
Tennessee Titans
Colts
ρ=4.1111
Colts
δ=18.45
Colts
-3½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
ρ=3.7398
Eagles
δ=23.34
Eagles
-15
Dallas Cowboys @
Kansas City Chiefs
Cowboys
ρ=2.6246
Cowboys
δ=10.56
Cowboys
-8½
Houston Texans @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=2.1422
Cardinals
δ=6.24
Cardinals
-5½
Oakland Raiders @
New York Giants
Giants
ρ=2.0813
Giants
δ=11.94
Giants
-16
New York Jets @
Miami Dolphins
Jets
ρ=1.9978
Jets
δ=7.93
Jets
-1½
Jacksonville Jaguars @
Seattle Seahawks
Jaguars
ρ=1.9748
Jaguars
δ=6.70
Seahawks
-1
Pittsburgh Steelers @
Detroit Lions
Steelers
ρ=1.7488
Steelers
δ=10.27
Steelers
-10½
Cleveland Browns @
Buffalo Bills
Bills
ρ=1.4294
Bills
δ=4.97
Bills
-6
Washington Redskins @
Carolina Panthers
Redskins
ρ=1.3461
Redskins
δ=3.22
Panthers
-3½
Cincinnati Bengals @
Baltimore Ravens
Bengals
ρ=1.2028
Ravens
δ=4.52
Ravens
-8½
New England Patriots @
Denver Broncos
Patriots
ρ=1.1028
Broncos
δ=1.86
Patriots
-3
Atlanta Falcons @
San Francisco 49ers
49ers
ρ=1.0841
49ers
δ=11.41
49ers
-2½

Bye: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Diego Chargers

Comments:

  • Six 2-score lines this week, with a couple pushing 3 scores. But the Buccaneers and Raiders have given up a lot of points this season.

  • Redskins @ Panthers: another "stoppable force vs. the movable object" game. How long until Jim Zorn gets fired if the Redskins lose?

  • I didn't notice APR had the Bengals ranked above the Ravens when I posted the power rankings. We should get a good idea from this game if the Bengals are the real deal this year.

  • The Broncos finally get (I think) a real test. They didn't look that dominating beating the Cowboys, so I think APR (and the Line) is right in picking the Patriots.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 4

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑3)New Orleans
Saints
4-05.3258
(LW × 1.365)
won by 14
vs Jets
2 (-)Indianapolis
Colts
4-04.9442
(LW × 1.250)
won by 17
vs Seahawks
3 (↓2)New York
Jets
3-14.0453
(LW × 1.003)
lost by 14
at Saints
4 (↓1)Minnesota
Vikings
4-03.9325
(LW × 1.008)
won by 7
vs Packers
5 (↑6)New England
Patriots
3-13.4373
(LW × 1.428)
won by 6
vs Ravens
6 (↑2)Arizona
Cardinals
1-23.3676
(LW × 1.228)
Bye
7 (↓2)Denver
Broncos
4-03.1169
(LW × 0.866)
won by 7
vs Cowboys
8 (↓2)San Francisco
49ers
3-13.0286
(LW × 1.067)
won by 35
vs Rams
9 (↓2)Cincinnati
Bengals
3-12.9346
(LW × 1.047)
won by 3
at Browns
10 (↑4)Atlanta
Falcons
2-12.7938
(LW × 1.454)
Bye
11 (↑7)Chicago
Bears
3-12.6804
(LW × 1.467)
won by 24
vs Lions
12 (↑3)Jacksonville
Jaguars
2-22.6725
(LW × 1.410)
won by 20
vs Titans
13 (↓4)Baltimore
Ravens
3-12.4398
(LW × 0.942)
lost by 6
at Patriots
14 (↓4)Green Bay
Packers
2-22.3366
(LW × 0.959)
lost by 7
at Vikings
15 (↑4)Pittsburgh
Steelers
2-22.2800
(LW × 1.252)
won by 10
vs Chargers
16 (↓3)Philadelphia
Eagles
2-12.0526
(LW × 1.035)
Bye
17 (↑3)San Diego
Chargers
2-22.0350
(LW × 1.125)
lost by 10
at Steelers
18 (↑6)Miami
Dolphins
1-32.0249
(LW × 1.693)
won by 28
vs Bills
19 (↓7)New York
Giants
4-01.9541
(LW × 0.956)
won by 11
at Chiefs
20 (↓3)Dallas
Cowboys
2-21.6884
(LW × 0.918)
lost by 7
at Broncos
21 (↓5)Buffalo
Bills
1-31.6691
(LW × 0.890)
lost by 28
at Dolphins
22 (↑1)Houston
Texans
2-21.5720
(LW × 1.304)
won by 23
vs Raiders
23 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
1-31.3534
(LW × 1.102)
lost by 17
at Colts
24 (↓3)Detroit
Lions
1-31.3038
(LW × 0.937)
lost by 24
at Bears
25 (↑1)Tennessee
Titans
0-41.2026
(LW × 1.145)
lost by 20
at Jaguars
26 (↑2)Cleveland
Browns
0-41.1677
(LW × 1.244)
lost by 3
vs Bengals
27 (↓2)Oakland
Raiders
1-30.9389
(LW × 0.873)
lost by 23
at Texans
28 (↓1)Washington
Redskins
2-20.9284
(LW × 0.932)
won by 3
vs Buccaneers
29 (↑2)St. Louis
Rams
0-40.6983
(LW × 1.271)
lost by 35
at 49ers
30 (↑2)Carolina
Panthers
0-30.6897
(LW × 1.275)
Bye
31 (↓2)Kansas City
Chiefs
0-40.6433
(LW × 1.045)
lost by 11
vs Giants
32 (↓2)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
0-40.5488
(LW × 0.950)
lost by 3
at Redskins

Comments

  • The Jets' power index actually increased (a little), but not nearly enough to stay ahead of the Saints or Colts

  • Every team the Cardinals have played won this weekend, and they reap the benefits (at least as far as APR is concerned).

  • The Broncos were actually pretty good last year—when their defense had a good game. So far this year, their defense has been playing very well (the Cowboys were the first team to score even 10 points on them).

  • Very much like last year, the Giants start off with an undefeated record against a series of weak teams.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+17)
Yeah, they're 4-0, but their opponents are a combined 4-12. The only team they've played ranked higher than #28 (by APR) is the #20 Cowboys. Maybe they're underrated, but shouldn't a good team be able to beat a bad team like the Chiefs by mor than 11 points?

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Cardinals (-13)
The case here is tougher. But the teams the Cardinals have played are a combined 9-3, with two of them (Colts and 49ers) ranked in the top 10. Still, I agree that #6 seems like a very high ranking for a 1-2 team.

Surprisingly, APR has only 6 teams more than 4 spots away from ESPN's rankings. Along with the Giants and Cardinals, the Ravens, Eagles, and Redskins are +6, and the Jaguars are -6.

Monday, October 5, 2009

NFL Week 4 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 4.

Unanimous picks (8-1)

Correctly picked:

Rams @ 49ers
Giants @ Chiefs
Seahawks @ Colts
Bengals @ Browns
Buccaneers @ Redskins
Packers @ Vikings
Lions @ Bears
Chargers @ Steelers

Not so much:

Bills @ Dolphins
Suddenly the Dolphins defense has 3 interceptions, while Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combine for 200 yards rushing. Where has this team been for the first three weeks?

Split Picks (APR 3-2, SRS 2-3, Line 3-2)

Cowboys (Line) @ Broncos (APR, SRS)
The Cowboys two wins are against a couple 0-fer teams. I'm still not convinced about the Broncos, though they seem to be better than last year (which isn't saying much).

Titans (SRS, Line) @ Jaguars (APR)
The second time this season the Titans have given up 34 or more points. The Titans weren't a high-scoring offense last year, and I think most of their offensive struggles can be traced to pressing for more points than they had to last year.

Raiders (SRS) @ Texans (APR, Line)
I think SRS got fooled by the win the Raiders got over the Chiefs, and the close loss they had to the Chargers. The AFC West is the best example ever for why you need to adjust to opponent strength.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Patriots (Line)
Yeah, the Ravens defense were called for a couple questionable "roughing the passer" penalties. But the Ravens also muffed the opening kickoff (recovered by the Patriots), Joe Flacco threw an interception, and Mark Clayton dropped a pass that would've kept the Ravens' final drive alive and given them a chance for a go-ahead score.

Jets (APR) @ Saints (SRS, Line)
It's not that surprising that Sanchez was forced into some costly rookie mistakes. What's surprising is that it didn't happen before week 4. On the other side... who are these players wearing the Saints uniforms, and what did they do with the real team?

Standings:

This Week Overall%
APR 11-331-1567.4%
SRS 10-431-1567.4%
Line 11-343-1969.4%
Unanimous 8-123- 874.2%

New power rankings, and Week 5 picks to come.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 5

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑3)Alabama
AP=3
5-06.7353
(LW × 1.161)
won by 18
at Kentucky
2 (↓1)Iowa
AP=12
5-06.0888
(LW × 0.744)
won by 3
vs Arkansas-St
3 (↑4)Texas
AP=2
4-05.3294
(LW × 1.076)
Bye
4 (↓2)Virginia-Tech
AP=5
4-15.2249
(LW × 0.789)
won by 8
at Duke
5 (↑7)Florida
AP=1
4-05.1535
(LW × 1.184)
Bye
6 (↑8)Kansas
AP=16
4-05.1435
(LW × 1.183)
Bye
7 (↑12)USC
AP=7
4-14.8534
(LW × 1.307)
won by 27
at California
8 (-)Stanford
AP=rv(50)
4-14.7482
(LW × 1.008)
won by 8
vs UCLA
9 (↓4)Miami-FL
AP=11
3-14.7205
(LW × 0.904)
won by 1
vs Oklahoma
10 (↑5)Auburn
AP=17
5-04.7134
(LW × 1.096)
won by 4
at Tennessee
11 (↓8)Boise-St
AP=6
5-04.6788
(LW × 0.777)
won by 18
vs UC-Davis
12 (↑1)LSU
AP=4
5-04.5422
(LW × 1.044)
won by 7
at Georgia
13 (↓2)TCU
AP=10
4-04.4117
(LW × 1.007)
won by 25
vs SMU
14 (↓8)South-Florida
AP=23
5-04.4114
(LW × 0.877)
won by 14
at Syracuse
15 (↑2)Nebraska
AP=21
3-14.3527
(LW × 1.140)
Bye
16 (↑7)Cincinnati
AP=8
5-04.2363
(LW × 1.163)
won by 24
at Miami-OH
17 (↓8)Oregon
AP=13
4-14.0873
(LW × 0.872)
won by 46
vs Washington-St
18 (↑13)Notre-Dame
AP=rv(9)
4-14.0768
(LW × 1.299)
won by 7
vs Washington
19 (↑10)Georgia
AP=rv(115)
3-24.0209
(LW × 1.255)
lost by 7
vs LSU
20 (↑2)Ohio-St
AP=9
4-14.0061
(LW × 1.097)
won by 19
at Indiana
21 (↑4)Oklahoma
AP=19
2-23.9338
(LW × 1.139)
lost by 1
at Miami-FL
22 (↓4)Georgia-Tech
AP=22
4-13.8478
(LW × 1.014)
won by 11
at Mississippi-St
23 (↑14)Pittsburgh
AP=rv(3)
4-13.7639
(LW × 1.266)
won by 25
at Louisville
24 (↑15)Wisconsin
AP=rv(157)
5-03.7047
(LW × 1.275)
won by 3
at Minnesota
25 (↓15)Florida-St2-33.6834
(LW × 0.822)
lost by 7
at Boston-Coll
26 (-)Washington2-33.5971
(LW × 1.070)
lost by 7
at Notre-Dame
27 (↑1)Oklahoma-St
AP=15
3-13.5941
(LW × 1.115)
Bye
28 (↑15)Boston-Coll
AP=rv(12)
4-13.5539
(LW × 1.302)
won by 7
vs Florida-St
29 (↑16)Missouri
AP=24
4-03.4581
(LW × 1.335)
Bye
30 (↓9)Clemson2-33.4114
(LW × 0.932)
lost by 3
at Maryland

Other Notable Teams:
32 (↑4)Arizona
AP=rv(2)
3-13.3413
(LW × 1.111)
Bye
33 (↓1)BYU
AP=18
4-13.3350
(LW × 1.069)
won by 18
vs Utah-St
34 (↓14)Penn-St
AP=14
4-13.2634
(LW × 0.887)
won by 18
at Illinois
36 (↓3)South-Carolina
AP=25
4-13.2578
(LW × 1.063)
won by 24
vs S-Carolina-St
37 (↑17)West-Virginia
AP=rv(2)
3-13.2035
(LW × 1.414)
won by 11
vs Colorado
40 (↓24)Houston
AP=rv(142)
3-13.0877
(LW × 0.745)
lost by 17
at UTEP
43 (↓16)Michigan
AP=rv(25)
4-12.8390
(LW × 0.873)
lost by 6
at Michigan-St
45 (↑7)Mississippi
AP=20
3-12.7119
(LW × 1.182)
won by 16
at Vanderbilt
49 (↓15)Utah
AP=rv(31)
3-12.6563
(LW × 0.876)
Bye

Comments:

  • Wow, Iowa really pays the price for not putting a stomp-down on 1-3 Arkansas St. on their home field!

  • Some weeks, it's really best to be on a Bye.

  • How was Cal ever ranked #6? They sure haven't seemed like it the last two weeks. That win over Minnesota (APR #64, not pictured) is starting to seem a long time ago.

  • Three 2-3 teams in the top 30 is not something I like to see. But it took overtime for Notre Dame (APR #18) to beat Washington, and they have that win over 4-1 USC.

  • APR is giving Clemson the benefit of the doubt for three close road losses to Georgia Tech (APR #22), TCU (APR #13), and Maryland (APR #36). They also have a home win over Boston College (APR #28).

  • Florida State looks to have the least impressive record of the three 2-3 teams. They also lost the biggest chunk of power index (17.8%) from last week.

  • What happened to Ball State? Did their entire starting line-up graduate? They won 12 games last year. This year, they are 0-5, and APR has them ranked 112 (out of 120).