Picks for week 6.
Read
this for a description of APR.
Read this
for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots | Patriots ρ=3.7882 | Patriots δ=16.94 | Patriots -9½ |
| St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Jaguars ρ=2.4183 | Jaguars δ=15.52 | Jaguars -10 |
| Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders | Eagles ρ=2.3601 | Eagles δ=23.69 | Eagles -14 |
| Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals | Bengals ρ=2.3234 | Bengals δ=10.26 | Bengals -4½ |
| New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints | Saints ρ=2.2961 | Saints δ=13.24 | Saints -3 |
| Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets | Jets ρ=2.2353 | Jets δ=11.92 | Jets -9½ |
| Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers | Packers ρ=2.2106 | Packers δ=9.15 | Packers -13½ |
| Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Panthers ρ=1.8831 | Panthers δ=5.30 | Panthers -3 |
| Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers | Broncos ρ=1.8339 | Broncos δ=9.77 | Chargers -3½ |
| Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.7569 | Steelers δ=11.46 | Steelers -14 |
| Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.4833 | Falcons δ=4.57 | Falcons -3½ |
| Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.4368 | Vikings δ=0.27 | Vikings -3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins | Redskins ρ=1.3412 | Chiefs δ=0.34 | Redskins -6½ |
| Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks | Cardinals ρ=1.1849 | Seahawks δ=6.01 | Seahawks -3 |
Bye: Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers
Comments:
Other than a fluke upset, this week is probably the Buccaneers best chance to escape an 0-16 record this season.
The Lions haven't won a game in Wisconsin* since December, 1991. (* The Packers used to play a couple of "home" games in Milwaukee every season.)
Chargers -3½? The Broncos are clearly much improved over last year. Which is bad news for the Chargers, who seem to be about the same.
I think the Chiefs are at least a little better than the 2nd-to-last ranking APR gives them. They played the Cowboys to overtime last week, and played the Ravens close until the 4th quarter in week 1. It should also be noted that the Redskins win margins combined don't cover 6½.
It's hard to know how good the Seahawks are. Certainly, not very when Hasselbeck is out. This is probably a crucial win for the Cardinals if they want to challenge the 49ers for the division this year.
