NFL: Pythagorean Projection 2009->2010

Preseason football is just a few weeks away now, so it's time to start getting ramped up for the 2010 season. With that in mind, here are the Pythagorean Projections for the 2010 season.

FYI: Details of how Pythagorean Projection works, 2008->2009 Projections, 2008->2009 Projection vs Reality

Team	Projected Wins	Comment
Rams	1.6	New QB
Raiders	2.8	New QB
Lions	2.9
Buccaneers	3.8
Browns	4.3	New QB
Chiefs	4.7
Seahawks	5.0	New HC
Jaguars	5.5
Bills	5.8	New QB?
Redskins	5.8	New QB, HC
Bears	6.7	New OC
Titans	6.8
Dolphins	7.2	New QB?
Giants	7.4
Broncos	8.1	QB Issues
Panthers	8.2	New QB
Bengals	8.4
Falcons	9.0
Steelers	9.2	QB Issues
Cardinals	9.3	New QB
Texans	9.4
49ers	9.5
Eagles	10.2	New QB
Colts	10.8
Chargers	11.1
Cowboys	11.3
Jets	11.4	Lots of FA acquisitions
Saints	11.5
Ravens	11.5
Patriots	11.5
Vikings	11.6
Packers	11.8

Comments:

• The Rams scored the fewest total points (175) in the league last year, and fell 69 points short of the team with 3rd fewest total points (Buccaneers, 244).

  The good news for rookie QB Sam Brafford is all he has to do to beat that is average 11 points per game. The bad news is the Rams also allowed the 2nd most total points (436), surpassed only by the Lions (494).

• If Ndamukong Suh can be productive for the Lions right away, if Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson can stay healthy the whole season... I think the Lions have a real shot at 6 or more wins this season, even if nothing else improves.

• The Bills and Dolphins both had QB problems last season. It would be a major improvement for both teams if they could each get through the whole season with just one guy starting at QB.

• I think the Bears could be in real trouble. They don't have anything like the offensive players Martz had in St. Louis back in the day (Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Tory Holt, Isaac Bruce). And with the Lions making some big off-season improvements, and the Packers and Vikings both coming back for more, the Bears could very easily get caught short in what could be one of the most competitive divisions of the 2010 season.

• Besides their QB issues, the Steelers really need Troy Polomalu to stay healthy for 16 games.

• Can the Patriots get to 11 or 12 wins? That seems like a lot for a team that only had 2 road wins in 2009.

NFL: How points were scored in the 2009 regular season

I went through PFR's list of box score data for every regular season game played in the 2009 season, and compiled the following tallies:

Unit	Type	#	Points	Total
Offense	Passing TD	711	4266
	Rushing TD	428	2568
	2-point conversion	24	48	6882
Defense	Pick-6	48	288
	Fumble-6	26	156
	Safety	14	28	472
Special	Field goals	756	2268
Teams	Extra points	1163	1163
	Kickoff return	18	108
	Punt return	10	60
	Blocked punt return	4	24
	Blocked FG return	2	12	3635
Total				10989

Comments:

• PFR's data seems to be mostly OK, although there are some obvious errors. This game, for example, has a touchdown being scored on a "-21 yard fumble return".

• All passing and rushing touchdowns are credited to the offense, even though there was at least one scored by special teams. There's no reliable way to tell when a touchdown is scored on special teams using PFR's score format.

• Another deficiency of PFR's score format: when a conversion attempt fails after a touchdown, it doesn't indicate whether it was an extra point try (and whether it was a bad snap, a bad kick, or a block), or whether it was a 2-point try.

  There were 60 failed conversions. According to this article [nytimes.com], there were 53 2-point conversion tries this season, which means that 29 failed 2-point conversions and 31 failed extra points.

  That gives a 97.6% success rate for extra points, and a 45.3% success rate for 2-point conversions. That may not seem like much, but getting 2 points on success doubles the effectiveness (for an extra point, expected value is .976, for a 2-point conversion, expected value is .906). Of course, that's over the course of a season for 32 teams. Which doesn't always help in one game, one team, one play, for a single good-or-bad outcome.

• I've said before I'm generally not a big fan of 2-point conversions; I was actually rather surprised by how infrequently they were attempted (53 tries/1163 TDs = 4.6% of the time).

• I was also surprised by how low the defensive scoring was compared to offense and special teams. As important as a defensive score can be to the course of a game, in terms of total points scored, it's pretty minor.

• More scoring data coming as soon as I get the box score information parsed out to a more convenient format.

NFL Wrapup: APR Pick Reliability

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR

Introduction

The following is an analysis of APR pick reliability for regular season games.

APR new margin power vs. classic margin power

You may remember at the beginning of the season I announced that I would be using a new margin power function for the APR power rankings this year. APR's picks for this year finished at 152-88. This turns out to be 6 picks weaker than the original 'classic' margin function for the same 2009 games.

The new and classic versions of APR were actually mostly in agreement on game picks; they only picked 8 games differently (correct picks are shown in bold):

Week	Game				Pick (current)	Pick (classic)
3	Falcons	10,	Patriots	26	Falcons	Patriots
4	Jets	10,	Saints	24	Jets	Saints
5	Patriots	17,	Broncos	20	Patriots	Broncos
10	Bills	17,	Titans	41	Bills	Titans
11	Chargers	32,	Broncos	3	Broncos	Chargers
12	Giants	6,	Broncos	26	Broncos	Giants
12	Steelers	17,	Ravens	20	Steelers	Ravens
14	Redskins	14,	Raiders	13	Raiders	Redskins

Over the course of the season, I've become increasingly dissatisfied with the new margin power function; this tends to confirm my suspicion that it's not really an improvement.

APR: Home vs Visitor

Here's the breakdown of pick accuracy for picking the visiting or home teams.

	Visitor Won	Home Won	Total
Picked Right	66	86	152
Picked Wrong	37	51	88
Total	103	137	240

APR picked the home team to win 123 times (86+37), again noticably less than the 137 home teams that did win.

As with last year, this indicates that something needs to be changed so that the home team is picked more often. This year, I think I know what that change needs to be: each team needs to have separate home and away power rankings, and the games picked according to the appropriate power.

If you look at the regular season standings, there are some teams that have a noticable difference between home and road records:

Team	Home Record	Road Record	Difference
Patriots	8-0	2-6	6
Vikings	8-0	4-4	4
49ers	6-2	2-6	4
Ravens	6-2	3-5	3
Steelers	6-2	3-5	3
Falcons	6-2	3-5	3
Bears	5-3	2-6	3
Seahawks	4-4	1-7	3

I will be very surprised if separating power rankings into home and away categories doesn't yeild at least some improvement in pick reliability.

APR vs. Pythagorean Projection

For week 1 of the season, I posted game picks based on the Pythagorean projections from last year. The Pythagorean picks for this year were 164-92-0 (64.1%), which beats APR (and even APR classic) this year. A 64.1% successful pick rate is best Pythagorean Projection has done at least since 1993 (see results for previous years here, along with an important update).

Conclusions

APR continues to be a work in progress. For next year, I will implement the home/away power rankings for game picks (the weekly power ranking posts will still show a combined power ranking, though).

I'm going to abandon the current margin weight function, either in favor of the classic function, or something better (if I can find something better).

I'm also going to adopt the Pythagorean Projection pick method for week 1 games, so that APR can pick the full season of games.

NFL Super Bowl Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑2)	New Orleans Saints	16-3	6.8776 (LW × 1.156)	won by 14 at Colts
2 (-)	Carolina Panthers	8-8	6.3478 (LW × 1.054)	Bye
3 (↑2)	Dallas Cowboys	12-6	5.9514 (LW × 1.033)	Bye
4 (-)	New York Jets	11-8	5.8160 (LW × 0.984)	Bye
5 (↓4)	Indianapolis Colts	16-3	5.6848 (LW × 0.907)	lost by 14 vs Saints
6 (-)	Minnesota Vikings	13-5	5.5107 (LW × 1.021)	Bye
7 (-)	New England Patriots	10-7	5.2420 (LW × 0.999)	Bye
8 (-)	San Diego Chargers	13-4	5.1236 (LW × 1.001)	Bye
9 (-)	Atlanta Falcons	9-7	4.9684 (LW × 1.018)	Bye
10 (-)	Green Bay Packers	11-6	4.8731 (LW × 1.005)	Bye
11 (↑2)	Philadelphia Eagles	11-6	4.7361 (LW × 1.016)	Bye
12 (↓1)	Baltimore Ravens	10-8	4.6672 (LW × 0.991)	Bye
13 (↓1)	Buffalo Bills	6-10	4.5583 (LW × 0.974)	Bye
14 (-)	Houston Texans	9-7	4.4101 (LW × 0.986)	Bye
15 (-)	Pittsburgh Steelers	9-7	4.3174 (LW × 0.999)	Bye
16 (-)	Arizona Cardinals	11-7	4.0303 (LW × 1.011)	Bye
17 (-)	Miami Dolphins	7-9	3.7308 (LW × 1.002)	Bye
18 (↑2)	New York Giants	8-8	3.6756 (LW × 1.023)	Bye
19 (-)	Cincinnati Bengals	10-7	3.6120 (LW × 0.996)	Bye
20 (↓2)	Tennessee Titans	8-8	3.5815 (LW × 0.985)	Bye
21 (-)	Denver Broncos	8-8	3.4926 (LW × 1.001)	Bye
22 (-)	San Francisco 49ers	8-8	3.3890 (LW × 0.997)	Bye
23 (↑2)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-13	3.1991 (LW × 1.052)	Bye
24 (↓1)	Cleveland Browns	5-11	3.1891 (LW × 0.992)	Bye
25 (↓1)	Chicago Bears	7-9	3.1715 (LW × 1.007)	Bye
26 (-)	Jacksonville Jaguars	7-9	2.9492 (LW × 0.976)	Bye
27 (-)	Kansas City Chiefs	4-12	2.7491 (LW × 0.999)	Bye
28 (-)	Washington Redskins	4-12	2.6800 (LW × 1.024)	Bye
29 (-)	Oakland Raiders	5-11	2.3928 (LW × 1.000)	Bye
30 (-)	Seattle Seahawks	5-11	1.9869 (LW × 0.998)	Bye
31 (-)	St. Louis Rams	1-15	1.4323 (LW × 1.012)	Bye
32 (-)	Detroit Lions	2-14	1.4049 (LW × 1.007)	Bye

Comments

• The Saints get a big boost from their 2-score win and retake the top spot.

• The top 10 looks pretty reasonable... except for the Panthers at #2. They did have some good wins to end the season. But how that translates into a death-grip on the #2 spot, I can't say.

• The Colts seemed to have a bit of a down year on offense, scoring 416 points in the regular season. Except for last year (when Manning had knee issues), you have to go back to 2001 to find a year with lower production.

  416 is only 9 points off their total for 2006, when they won Super Bowl XLI, but they faced a much weaker opponent then, too.

  There's already talk of the Colts as favorites to win the next Super Bowl. One thing to watch next season will be their point totals. The NFC is likely to send another high-scoring team to the Super Bowl next year, and if the Colts aren't on pace to score at least 430 points over the regular season, they could end up short again.

Epilogue

That's the end of another season, and the final power ranking until September. There will be some more season wrapup posts in the next week or so, and at least a couple historical data posts (I've got the regular season tie frequency post nearly ready).

But after next week, FSPI will be pretty quiet until August or so (you can check out what it was like last year by looking at the "Blog Archive" links on the left).

Once again, thanks for reading. See you in September.

NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for the Super Bowl.

Saints (SRS) vs. Colts (APR, Line)

The Saints really played a masterful game. They took chances when they needed to, kept the game within reach, and played to their strong passing game.

The Colts, on the other hand... of course, Manning's pick-6 comes up big. That looked to me like just an awful throw. But the real problem was clock management. They needed to have a quick score game plain against the Saints. Instead, their first two second-half drives used 11:48 off the clock and only got them 7 points.

Even if Manning hadn't thrown that interception, if the Colts had held on to the ball and tied the game, the Saints likely would have had two minutes to drive for a go-ahead score, with little or no time left for the Colts to respond.

It almost seems like the Colts were using the same "establish a lead and sit on the ball" strategy that they used against the Ravens and Jets. But that just doesn't work when your oppoent has a quarterback like Drew Brees.

Standings:

	This Week	Overall
APR	0-1	5-6
SRS	1-0	6-5
Line	0-1	8-3
Unanimous	0-0	3-1

The final power rankings to come, plus a few more season wrap-up posts.

NFL Wrapup: APR Picks by team

Record	Teams	Comments
14-1	Rams	The Rams were not picked to beat the Lions in week 8.
13-2	Chargers
12-3	Lions, Colts, Buccaneers, Bears	The Bears were a pretty bad team this year, especially for making it to 7 wins. APR had them ranked in the bottom 10 from week 9 to the end of the season.
11-4	Vikings	APR never picked against the Vikings.
10-5	Seahawks, Saints, Redskins, Patriots, Packers, Giants, Eagles, Chiefs, Bengals	I'm surprised APR did this well on the Patriots considering the gap between their home record (8-0) and road record (2-6).
9-6	Titans, Ravens, Falcons, Cowboys, Cardinals, Browns, Bills	16 teams picked 9-6 or worse; same as last year.
8-7	Raiders, Panthers, Jets, Broncos, 49ers	The 49ers were another team with a big difference between their home record (6-2) and road record (2-6)
7-8	Texans, Jaguars, Dolphins	How much does a crowd matter to home field advantage? In spite of their often empty stands, the Jaguars were another team did a lot better at home (5-3) than on the road (2-6).
4-11	Steelers	How do you pick a team like this? Four of their wins came against playoff teams (Chargers, Vikings, Packers, and Ravens), while three of their losses came against some of the worst teams in the league (Chiefs, Browns, and Raiders).

Update: I should make clear that this is for regular season games only (weeks 2-17).

NFL Wrapup: Pythagorean Projection vs Reality

Last summer, I did a series of posts on Pythagorean Projection (Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV). As a follow-up to Part III, I present the Projected Wins for 2009 versus Actual Wins.

Note that the format for this table is slightly different than what I used in Part II. Here, the projection was used as a baseline, so a positive difference means a team exceeded its projected wins; a negative difference means a team fell short of its projected wins.

Team	Actual	Proj.	Diff	Comment
Jets	9	9.2	-0.2	New HC, QB
Eagles	11	11.3	-0.3
Seahawks	5	5.4	-0.4	New HC
Chiefs	4	4.4	+0.4	New HC, QB
Raiders	5	4.6	+0.4
Browns	5	4.4	+0.6	New HC
Patriots	10	10.6	-0.6	Brady back
Falcons	9	9.7	-0.7
Lions	2	2.8	-0.8	New HC, QB
Jaguars	7	6.2	+0.8
49ers	8	6.9	+1.1
Rams	1	2.6	-1.6	New HC, injuries
Bears	7	8.7	-1.7	New QB
Texans	9	7.3	+1.7
Broncos	8	6.2	+1.8	New HC, QB
Bills	6	7.8	-1.8
Dolphins	7	8.8	-1.8	Injuries
Cardinals	10	8.0	+2.0
Packers	11	8.9	+2.1	New defense
Panthers	8	10.1	-2.1	Jake Delhomme
Vikings	12	9.2	+2.8	New QB
Steelers	9	11.8	-2.8	Troy Polamalu hurt
Colts	13	10.1	+2.9	Manning healthy all year
Chargers	13	10.1	+2.9
Ravens	9	11.9	-2.9
Redskins	4	7.0	-3.0
Cowboys	11	7.9	+3.1
Giants	8	11.3	-3.3	Eli injured
Saints	13	9.5	+3.5
Titans	8	12.1	-4.1	No more Haynesworth
Buccaneers	3	9.0	-6.0	New HC, QB
Bengals	10	3.2	+6.8	Healthy Carson Palmer

Broken down into the range used in Part I, we have:

Range		# of Teams	% of 32	Classification
0	≤δ≤ 2	17	53.1%	Reasonably Close
2	<δ≤ 4	12	37.5%	Moderately Close
4	<δ≤ 8	3	9.4%	Wrong
8	<δ	0	0.0%	Yikes!

(Note that in Part I, the difference was expressed in winning percentage; here it is expressed in games won in a 16-game season.)

Comments

• The teams are sorted by the magnatude of difference; teams that came very close to their projected wins are at the top, teams further away come further down the table.

• In 2008 (c.f. Part II), 8 teams (25%) finished at least 5 games away from their projected win total, which (as I said) seemed likely to be an outlier year. Here we see teams much closer: only two finished more than 5 games away from their projected wins total.

• There's also a case to be made for more gradual coaching changes. The Cardinals 2-game improvement (which could've been 3, if they had had something to play for in week 17), can be attributed to continuing improvements under Coach Whisenhunt. While the Redskins 3-game fall-off might be attributed to Coach Zorn losing his squad.

• Those two or three extra wins that Favre (presumably) brought to the Vikings might not seem like a big deal out of context, but (this year) they're the difference between the #2 seed and being the last wildcard (or maybe eliminated in favor of the Falcons or some other team)

NFL Wrapup: Significance of the first two games

Last September, I did a post on how the first two games of the season correlated to final standings. As a follow-up, here's how the 2009 season turned out:

	Team	Standing	Note
WW	Colts	14- 2
Teams	Saints	13- 3
(9)	Vikings	12- 4
	Jets	9- 7
	Ravens	9- 7
	Falcons	9- 7
	Broncos	8- 8
	Giants	8- 8
	49ers	8- 8	avg wins: 10.0
WL	Chargers	13- 3
Teams	Eagles	11- 5
(7)	Cowboys	11- 5
	Packers	11- 5
	Patriots	10- 6
	Steelers	9- 7
	Seahawks	5-11	avg wins: 10.0
LW	Bengals	10- 6
Teams	Cardinals	10- 6
(7)	Texans	9- 7
	Bears	7- 9
	Bills	6-10
	Raiders	5-11
	Redskins	4-12	avg wins: 7.3
LL	Panthers	8- 8
Teams	Titans	8- 8
(9)	Dolphins	7- 9
	Jaguars	7- 9
	Browns	5-11
	Chiefs	4-12
	Buccaneers	3-13
	Lions	2-14
	Rams	1-15	avg wins: 5.0

Comments:

• I'm somewhat surprised at how well the first two games correlate to overall success. But it's good to see such strong evidence for one of FSPI's basic assumptions (i.e., that you can tell something about how good a team is from just one or two games).

• It seems a little unusual that most teams fall into the 'WW' or 'LL' categories. I would have expected more of a Normal distribution, with most teams in the 'WL' and 'LW' categories.

• As with the previous historical analysis, there is a significant difference between the 'WL' and the 'LW' groups, although unlike the historical data, this year it was the 'WL' teams that did noticeably better.

NFL Super Bowl Pick

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts	Colts ρ=1.0534	Saints δ=3.74	Colts -5½

Comments:

• Interesting: SRS picks the Saints. Probably because (as mentioned in the previous power rankings) the Colts have a lot of close wins, and a couple big losses when they pulled their starters. Also, SRS is unweighted, so the Saints early big wins count equally with later closer games.

• This is the first time since Super Bowl XXVIII that there's been a 1-seed vs. 1-seed matchup.

• The Colts have been relatively slow on scoring in the first half. The Saints best chance is probably to establish an early lead before the Colts have a chance to get started. Of course, even if they do, Manning knows how to bring the Colts back when he needs to.

• On the other hand, the Saints are the first playoff team the Colts will face with a legitimate passing threat. The Colts had a middle-of-the-pack pass defense in the regular season, so the Saints may at least have a chance to keep up once the scoring starts.

• The NFL is actually on a relatively long streak of reasonably competitive Super Bowls. Super Bowl XXXVII (Raiders vs. Buccaneers) was the last one that wasn't within one score into the fourth quarter.

NFL Championship Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑5)	Indianapolis Colts	16-2	6.2691 (LW × 1.152)	won by 13 vs Jets
2 (-)	Carolina Panthers	8-8	6.0203 (LW × 0.980)	Bye
3 (-)	New Orleans Saints	15-3	5.9512 (LW × 0.995)	won by 3 vs Vikings
4 (↓3)	New York Jets	11-8	5.9097 (LW × 0.936)	lost by 13 at Colts
5 (↓1)	Dallas Cowboys	12-6	5.7591 (LW × 0.990)	Bye
6 (↓1)	Minnesota Vikings	13-5	5.3951 (LW × 0.939)	lost by 3 at Saints
7 (-)	New England Patriots	10-7	5.2491 (LW × 0.994)	Bye
8 (-)	San Diego Chargers	13-4	5.1190 (LW × 0.991)	Bye
9 (-)	Atlanta Falcons	9-7	4.8804 (LW × 0.989)	Bye
10 (-)	Green Bay Packers	11-6	4.8503 (LW × 0.987)	Bye
11 (-)	Baltimore Ravens	10-8	4.7078 (LW × 0.999)	Bye
12 (↑1)	Buffalo Bills	6-10	4.6804 (LW × 1.034)	Bye
13 (↓1)	Philadelphia Eagles	11-6	4.6601 (LW × 0.991)	Bye
14 (-)	Houston Texans	9-7	4.4743 (LW × 1.007)	Bye
15 (-)	Pittsburgh Steelers	9-7	4.3225 (LW × 0.987)	Bye
16 (-)	Arizona Cardinals	11-7	3.9856 (LW × 0.983)	Bye
17 (-)	Miami Dolphins	7-9	3.7230 (LW × 0.989)	Bye
18 (↑2)	Tennessee Titans	8-8	3.6352 (LW × 1.009)	Bye
19 (↓1)	Cincinnati Bengals	10-7	3.6264 (LW × 0.982)	Bye
20 (↓1)	New York Giants	8-8	3.5923 (LW × 0.989)	Bye
21 (-)	Denver Broncos	8-8	3.4906 (LW × 0.999)	Bye
22 (-)	San Francisco 49ers	8-8	3.3979 (LW × 0.996)	Bye
23 (↑1)	Cleveland Browns	5-11	3.2135 (LW × 0.995)	Bye
24 (↓1)	Chicago Bears	7-9	3.1487 (LW × 0.973)	Bye
25 (-)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-13	3.0404 (LW × 0.990)	Bye
26 (-)	Jacksonville Jaguars	7-9	3.0205 (LW × 1.009)	Bye
27 (-)	Kansas City Chiefs	4-12	2.7529 (LW × 0.996)	Bye
28 (-)	Washington Redskins	4-12	2.6168 (LW × 0.993)	Bye
29 (-)	Oakland Raiders	5-11	2.3930 (LW × 0.991)	Bye
30 (-)	Seattle Seahawks	5-11	1.9916 (LW × 0.997)	Bye
31 (-)	St. Louis Rams	1-15	1.4157 (LW × 0.998)	Bye
32 (-)	Detroit Lions	2-14	1.3956 (LW × 0.985)	Bye

Comments

• The Colts' 2-score win returns them to the #1 spot (they were #1 in week 14, and #2 for most of the rest of the season).

• The Saints gain some power on their win over the Vikings, but (since earlier games have lower weight), it also costs them power by giving many bigger wins in their 13-0 start less weight.

• Perhaps inspired by last years' Cardinals, the Colts seem to have been holding back in the regular season. Of their initial 14 wins, they had 8 by single-digit margins. They had 4 wins by more than 12 points, but all early in the season, and all against relatively weak teams (the Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans, and Rams).

• Is there a way the Saints don't get crushed by the Colts in the Super Bowl? The Saints were only able to keep pace with the Vikings in the NFC Championship game thanks to 2 interceptions and 3 recovered fumbles. The Colts likely aren't going to be so careless.

NFL Championship Game Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for the Championship Games.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

The Jets played their game pretty well. But the Colts never seem to give up or panic when they find themselves in a hole, and a first-half lead of just 11 points is just not enough. Unlike the Bengals and Chargers, the Colts were able to keep pressing and keep scoring, and the Jets limited offense just wasn't able to keep up.

Vikings @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)

This really should've been the Vikings game. The Saints were mostly ineffective on offense, generating just two drives longer than 37 yards. But turnovers (two interceptions and three lost fumbles) gave the Saints short fields for a couple touchdowns, as well as denying Ryan Longwell a chance at a game-clinching field goal at the end of regulation.

Standings:

	This Week	Overall
APR	1-1	5-5
SRS	1-1	5-5
Line	2-0	8-2
Unanimous	1-0	3-1

New power rankings, and the Super Bowl pick to come.

NFL Championship Game Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts	Jets ρ=1.1603	Jets δ=1.58	Colts -8
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints	Saints ρ=1.0411	Saints δ=2.57	Saints -4½

Comments:

• The Colts will likely stick to the same game plan they used against the Ravens: establish an early lead, take away the running game, and grind the clock.

• The Jets will likely stick to their same game plan too. They've made it this far with just Sanchez throwing just 38 times in two games. But the Colts defense will certainly be scheming to put Mark Sanchez in a position to throw the ball.

• The Colts light end-of-season load and bye week for the wildcard round of the playoffs could be a major advantage for them as well. The Jets have been playing for their playoff lives for the last four games.

• It's something of a shock to me that the NFC Championship game features the Vikings and Saints—the way both teams finished the regular season, I figured one if not both would be one-and-done in the divisional round.

• One big factor in this game is going to be the Saints' offensive line. If Drew Brees is running for his life like Tony Romo was last week, it's going to be very hard for the Saints to keep up with the Vikings.

NFL Divisional Round Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For the Divisional Round

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑1)	New York Jets	11-7	6.3165 (LW × 1.038)	won by 3 at Chargers
2 (↑1)	Carolina Panthers	8-8	6.1421 (LW × 1.052)	Bye
3 (↑2)	New Orleans Saints	14-3	5.9801 (LW × 1.088)	won by 31 vs Cardinals
4 (↓3)	Dallas Cowboys	12-6	5.8151 (LW × 0.914)	lost by 31 at Vikings
5 (↑4)	Minnesota Vikings	13-4	5.7441 (LW × 1.169)	won by 31 vs Cowboys
6 (↑4)	Indianapolis Colts	15-2	5.4440 (LW × 1.124)	won by 17 vs Ravens
7 (↓1)	New England Patriots	10-7	5.2807 (LW × 1.025)	Bye
8 (↓4)	San Diego Chargers	13-4	5.1663 (LW × 0.923)	lost by 3 vs Jets
9 (↑2)	Atlanta Falcons	9-7	4.9349 (LW × 1.029)	Bye
10 (↓2)	Green Bay Packers	11-6	4.9133 (LW × 0.967)	Bye
11 (↓4)	Baltimore Ravens	10-8	4.7133 (LW × 0.921)	lost by 17 at Colts
12 (-)	Philadelphia Eagles	11-6	4.7037 (LW × 0.986)	Bye
13 (↑2)	Buffalo Bills	6-10	4.5260 (LW × 1.050)	Bye
14 (-)	Houston Texans	9-7	4.4420 (LW × 1.019)	Bye
15 (↓2)	Pittsburgh Steelers	9-7	4.3796 (LW × 0.986)	Bye
16 (-)	Arizona Cardinals	11-7	4.0541 (LW × 0.949)	lost by 31 at Saints
17 (↑2)	Miami Dolphins	7-9	3.7653 (LW × 1.029)	Bye
18 (↓1)	Cincinnati Bengals	10-7	3.6914 (LW × 0.981)	Bye
19 (↓1)	New York Giants	8-8	3.6327 (LW × 0.976)	Bye
20 (↑1)	Tennessee Titans	8-8	3.6045 (LW × 1.010)	Bye
21 (↓1)	Denver Broncos	8-8	3.4943 (LW × 0.968)	Bye
22 (-)	San Francisco 49ers	8-8	3.4110 (LW × 0.995)	Bye
23 (↑1)	Chicago Bears	7-9	3.2377 (LW × 1.041)	Bye
24 (↓1)	Cleveland Browns	5-11	3.2288 (LW × 0.985)	Bye
25 (-)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-13	3.0725 (LW × 1.030)	Bye
26 (-)	Jacksonville Jaguars	7-9	2.9925 (LW × 1.025)	Bye
27 (-)	Kansas City Chiefs	4-12	2.7628 (LW × 0.972)	Bye
28 (-)	Washington Redskins	4-12	2.6364 (LW × 0.974)	Bye
29 (-)	Oakland Raiders	5-11	2.4153 (LW × 0.967)	Bye
30 (-)	Seattle Seahawks	5-11	1.9977 (LW × 1.003)	Bye
31 (↑1)	St. Louis Rams	1-15	1.4184 (LW × 1.012)	Bye
32 (↓1)	Detroit Lions	2-14	1.4173 (LW × 0.994)	Bye

Comments

• The Jets retake the top spot, thanks in part to the Cowboys' complete inability to stop the Vikings' pass rush. The Panthers also benefit indirectly via their week 15 win over the Vikings.

• The Jets were joined by the Saints this week as the only winning teams not to score first. The Jets are also joined by the Colts as the only winning teams not to score at least 33 points total.

• The Packers are still the only losing team that scored more than 14 points. Jets @ Chargers joins Packers @ Cardinals as the only games in the playoffs with more points scored after halftime than before.

• This has been a pretty weak series of playoff games so far. Six of the eight games played have been over by halftime. Five games have ended with the winning team up by at least three scores.

• The full, 32-team power rankings return, so you can see that the Rams and Lions are still locked in a battle for last place.

NFL Divisional Round Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for the Divisional round.

Cardinals @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)

Rumors of the demise of the Saints offense are apparently greatly exaggerated. Like the Packers last week, the Saints shredded the Cardinals secondary early and often (though without the Packers' early stumbles). Unlike the Packers, the Saints' defense was able to get pressure on Kurt Warner. And, as you saw, Warner doesn't do well under pressure, especially playing from behind.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

This was a masterful game plan on the part of the Colts, executed to near perfection. On defense, the Colts took away the Ravens' main offensive weapons: Ray Rice was held to just 67 yards rushing, and Willis McGahee was a non-factor. On offense, the Colts established a two-touchdown lead by the end of the first half, and spent the second half grinding out the clock, and keeping the Ravens away from the endzone.

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

How did the Cowboys ever get to 11 wins with such an awful offensive line? Romo was sacked 6 times, constantly harrassed—it's no wonder the Cowboys couldn't sustain a drive all game long, and after the Vikings got their second touchdown, the game was never in doubt.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)

As advertised: Sanchez threw for just 100 yards, Green and Jones ran for 169 yards, and the defense held the Chargers to just 14 points. How is this the same team that couldn't beat the Falcons in the Meadowlands in week 15?

Standings:

	This Week	Overall
APR	2-2	4-4
SRS	2-2	4-4
Line	3-1	6-2
Unanimous	1-1	2-1

New power rankings, and Championship Game picks to come.

NFL Divisional Round Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings	Cowboys ρ=1.2948	Cowboys δ=0.58	Vikings -2½
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints	Saints ρ=1.2864	Saints δ=9.89	Saints -7
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers	Jets ρ=1.0872	Jets δ=1.66	Chargers -7½
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts	Ravens ρ=1.0573	Ravens δ=2.80	Colts -6½

Comments:

• Joe Flacco is probably going to need more than 4 completions for 34 yards to beat the Colts. Even if the Ravens manage to establish another quick 14-point lead, the Colts have shown more than once they can come back from a long ways down, and come back to win.

• On the other hand, the Jets' best strategy is probably the same as last week: pass a little, run a lot, play good defense. But the Chargers' offense will be harder to stop than the Bengals'.

• The last time the Saints scored more than 17 points was December 13th (week 14), when they travelled to Atlanta to play the Falcons. They have to be feeling a little uneasy facing a team that just put up 51 points on their opponent.

• On the other hand, the Cardinals have to be thinking all they need to do to advance is A) keep scoring like last week, and B) get a few stops on what has been lately a very weak offense.

• The Cowboys @ Vikings is an interesting matchup. On the one hand, the Cowboys have exactly one notable win outside the division (@ the Saints in week 15). On the other hand, the Vikings have been losing lately even to bad teams (though all on the road).

• The Cowboys seem to have all the momentum going into this game, but you have to figure that Favre and the Vikings, playing at home, are going to give it everything they've got. Certainly, the Vikings have much more to lose: after such high expectations, one-and-done in the playoffs could spell the end of Favre's career, and probably get Childress fired as well.

NFL Poll: Who ya got?

A chance for some easy feedback, and a chance for me to find out how many (if any) readers are out there. (Yeah, I could hook up with sitemeter... it's on my list of stuff to do.)

Which remaining team would you most like to see win the Super Bowl?
	Colts
	Chargers
	Jets
	Ravens
	Saints
	Vikings
	Cardinals
	Cowboys
	I don't like any of them
pollcode.com free polls

NFL Wildcard Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Wildcard weekend

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑1)	Dallas Cowboys	12-5	6.3650 (LW × 1.063)	won by 20 vs Eagles
2 (↓1)	New York Jets	10-7	6.0879 (LW × 1.004)	won by 10 at Bengals
3 (-)	Carolina Panthers	8-8	5.8407 (LW × 1.002)	Bye
4 (↑2)	San Diego Chargers	13-3	5.5999 (LW × 1.001)	Bye
5 (-)	New Orleans Saints	13-3	5.4979 (LW × 0.981)	Bye
6 (↓2)	New England Patriots	10-7	5.1518 (LW × 0.911)	lost by 19 vs Ravens
7 (↑8)	Baltimore Ravens	10-7	5.1197 (LW × 1.228)	won by 19 at Patriots
8 (↓1)	Green Bay Packers	11-6	5.0797 (LW × 0.987)	lost by 6 at Cardinals
9 (-)	Minnesota Vikings	12-4	4.9157 (LW × 1.009)	Bye
10 (↑1)	Indianapolis Colts	14-2	4.8423 (LW × 1.015)	Bye
11 (↓1)	Atlanta Falcons	9-7	4.7966 (LW × 0.995)	Bye
12 (↓4)	Philadelphia Eagles	11-6	4.7685 (LW × 0.930)	lost by 20 at Cowboys
13 (↑1)	Pittsburgh Steelers	9-7	4.4431 (LW × 1.028)	Bye
14 (↓2)	Houston Texans	9-7	4.3596 (LW × 0.978)	Bye
15 (↓2)	Buffalo Bills	6-10	4.3113 (LW × 0.994)	Bye
16 (↑3)	Arizona Cardinals	11-6	4.2740 (LW × 1.161)	won by 6 vs Packers
17 (↓1)	Cincinnati Bengals	10-7	3.7620 (LW × 0.975)	lost by 10 vs Jets
18 (-)	New York Giants	8-8	3.7230 (LW × 1.011)	Bye
19 (↓2)	Miami Dolphins	7-9	3.6597 (LW × 0.983)	Bye

Comments

• The Jets were the only winning team that didn't score first this week. The Jets were also the only winning team that didn't have at least 24 points by halftime, and the only winning team not to score at least 33 points total.

• The Packers were the only losing team that scored more than 14 points. Packers @ Cardinals was the only game this weekend with more points scored after halftime than before.

• The Cardinals move up so they are now ranked above another (eliminated) playoff team. Again, much like last year.

• Every team in the AFC East drops at least one spot from last week, although the Jets actually increased their power index a tiny bit (just not nearly enough to stay ahead of the Cowboys).

• None of the teams below the Dolphins changed order from week 17 (and all are out of the playoffs), and so have been elided in this listing.

NFL Wildcard Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for Wildcard Weekend.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)

Wow... maybe the Jets are actually good? I didn't think the Bengals would make it past the divisional round, but I figured they could take care of the Jets. And if the Bengals could've kept their defense off the field more, maybe they could have.

But it was the Bengals offense that struggled. So many times receivers were dropping balls, Palmer was overthrowing them, or they were just flat-out not on the same play. Mark Sanches threw fewer total passes (15) than Carson Palmer threw incompletions (18).

Eagles @ Cowboys (APR, SRS, Line)

Were the Eagles secretly mediocre? Looking back on their regular season schedule, they only beat one team (the Falcons) with a winning record, and were 0-4 against teams that qualified for the playoffs.

This game furthers the case that the Eagles are just not ready to play at the highest levels of the NFL. Other than that early touchdown, their offense didn't have a drive longer than 32 yards until garbage time. And thanks to a combination of offensive turnovers and bad defense, They gave up a back-breaking 27 points in the second quarter, and never came close to being in the game again.

Ravens @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

The Patriots looked unprepared for this game right from the start. The Ravens' first play from scrimmage was an 83 yard touchdown run; the Patriot's first drive ended with negative yards and a lost fumble that the Ravens quickly converted to another touchdown. The Patriots never got close after that.

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

In a lot of ways, this was a replay of the Packers @ Steelers game from week 15. Two offenses shredding their opposing defenses, and a final late clinching score. If the Packers ever figure out a pass defense, they'll be a real powerhouse.

Standings:

	This Week	Overall
APR	2-2	2-2
SRS	2-2	2-2
Line	3-1	3-1
Unanimous	1-1	1-1

New power rankings, and Divisional round picks to come.

NFL Wrapup: Top 10 Upsets

Determining Upset Magnatude

When power index values are computed for the purposes of weekly power rankings and picks, the values for each game are weighted so that older games matter less than more recent games.

Since it makes more sense to evaluate upsets in the context of the whole season, all games are given equal weight for purposes of this post. This means the matchup ratio (ρ) given below will usually not be the same as the one posted when the game was originally picked.

Also, in order to avoid some of the weirdness associated with the end of the season (e.g., teams resting in preparation for the playoffs), the games in the final week of the season were not included in the power index computations.

Determining the Top 10 Upsets

Once the power index values have been computed for each team, the full season of games was examined, and all games where the lower-ranked team won were selected. The "upset games" se were then sorted by the ratio of the teams powers (higher divided by lower), and the games with the biggest ratios selected for this list.

Dishonorable Mention: some games that missed the cut

There are some notable upsets outside the top 10 that deserve at least a mention:

• Week 13: The Patriots travel to Miami looking for their second road win of the season, and come away denied.
• Week 9: The Packers give the Buccaneers their first win.
• Week 13: The Steelers can't stop the Raiders in Pittsburgh.
• Week 13: The 49ers can't get a win in Seattle.
• Week 11: The Bengals faltering offense can't outscore the Raiders.

The Top 10 Upsets of the 2009 Season

As determined by the unweighted APR power indexes from week 16.

10. Week 11: Browns 37, Lions 38 (ρ=1.6037)
    This looks like more of an upset now thanks to the Browns finishing on a 4-game winning streak. But as an example of utter ineptitude on the part of the losing team, it surely qualifies. Is there another example, ever, of a defense getting called for pass interference on a Hail Mary?

9. Week 16: Vikings 30, Bears 36 (ρ=1.6171)
   The Vikings were still alive for the #1 seed going into this game, and needed a win to maintain control over the #2 seed. Instead, they lost their third road game in four weeks, and only clinched a bye thanks to a stunning collapse by the Eagles in week 17.

8. Week 10: Broncos 17, Redskins 27 (ρ=1.7181)
   This was the game Chris Simms had to finish because Kyle Orton got hurt. This was also the game where the Redskins tried their "no way that's going to work" fake punt and it worked. What's worse, this wasn't even the biggest upset of the year for the Broncos.

7. Week 14: Steelers 6, Browns 13 (ρ=1.7331)
   It was late in the season, the Steelers were coming off a couple embarrassing losses, but they were still in the thick of the wildcard race. All they needed to do to get back on track for the playoffs was to take care of business against the 1-11 Browns. Instead, the Browns sacked Roethlisberger eight times, the Steelers could only put up 6 points, and they went home with a third embarrassing loss.

6. Week 15: Raiders 20, Broncos 19 (ρ=1.7529)
   The in spite of a 2-5 stretch, in week 15 the Broncos were still alive for the playoffs. Taking care of the 4-9 Raiders at home would be a good first step in getting things turned around. Instead, the Raiders got 241 yards rushing, and even JaMarcus Russell managed to throw a touchdown.

5. Week 3: Redskins 14, Lions 19 (ρ=1.7964)
   The Redskins actually had a pretty decent defense this season, although this game is not a good example. Matt Stafford threw for 241 yards and a touchdown, Kevin Smith ran for 101 yards, and it was just too much for the Redskins' struggling offense to overcome.

4. Week 11: Steelers 24, Chiefs 27 (ρ=1.9538)
   The Steelers were terrible on special teams this year, and really struggled on defense when Troy Polamalu was out. Both weaknesses contributed to the Steelers biggest upset of the season.

3. Week 6: Eagles 9, Raiders 13 (ρ=2.0861)
   The Eagles' week 17 shutout was not a total fluke. This is another example of a game where they just couldn't get much going offensively. This was one of just two games where the Raiders didn't give up at least 16 points.

2. Week 17: Chiefs 44, Broncos 24 (ρ=2.1695)
   Either Jamaal Charles (259 yards rushing in this game) is one of the break-out stars of the 2009 season, or the Broncos are really, really bad at run defense. We'll have to wait until September to find out about Jammal Charles, but there's no question the Broncos playoff hopes were snuffed out in part because they couldn't stop Jamaal Charles, Michael Bush, and Darren McFadden (the last two doing most of the damage for the Raiders in game 6, above).

1. Week 16: Buccaneers 20, Saints 17 (ρ=2.5171)
   For much of the season, the Saints plowed through their competition like they were playing at another level. But as the season wore on, outcomes started getting closer and closer, until finally, with the #1 seed still in play, they lost to one of the worst teams in the league.

Eliminated Games

The following games were elminated from contention because one team pulled its starters, or was indirectly affected by such a team.

• Week 10: Jaguars 24, Jets 22 (ρ=1.6275)
  A "win" over the Colts made the Jets look better than they really are. This was something of an upset, but it doesn't belong in the top 10.

• Week 17: Colts 7, Bills 30 (ρ=1.7270)
  How much did it matter that the Colts were resting their starters? This was only the fifth game of the season the Bills managed to scored more than 17 points.

NCAA Final Top 30+

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Final AP rankings will be added after they are released.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Alabama AP=1	14-0	8.6491 (LW × 1.107)	won by 16 vs Texas
2 (↑1)	Florida AP=3	13-1	7.4805 (LW × 1.168)	won by 27 at Cincinnati
3 (↓1)	Texas AP=2	13-1	6.5225 (LW × 0.878)	lost by 16 at Alabama
4 (↑3)	Virginia-Tech AP=10	10-3	5.9896 (LW × 1.100)	won by 23 at Tennessee
5 (↑3)	TCU AP=6	12-1	5.8100 (LW × 1.078)	lost by 7 vs Boise-St
6 (↑4)	Ohio-St AP=5	11-2	5.6282 (LW × 1.061)	won by 9 at Oregon
7 (↓3)	Texas-Tech AP=21	9-4	5.6127 (LW × 0.973)	won by 10 vs Michigan-St
8 (↓3)	Oklahoma AP=rv(90)	8-5	5.3889 (LW × 0.942)	won by 4 at Stanford
9 (↓3)	Arkansas AP=rv(3)	8-5	5.3337 (LW × 0.968)	won by 3 at East-Carolina
10 (↑2)	Mississippi AP=20	9-4	5.2837 (LW × 1.037)	won by 14 vs Oklahoma-St
11 (↑3)	Boise-St AP=4	14-0	5.2563 (LW × 1.087)	won by 7 at TCU
12 (↑9)	Iowa AP=7	11-2	5.0337 (LW × 1.146)	won by 10 at Georgia-Tech
13 (↑3)	Nebraska AP=14	10-4	5.0107 (LW × 1.067)	won by 33 vs Arizona
14 (↓3)	Penn-St AP=9	11-2	4.9742 (LW × 0.958)	won by 2 at LSU
15 (↓6)	Oregon AP=11	10-3	4.8239 (LW × 0.908)	lost by 9 vs Ohio-St
16 (↑20)	BYU AP=12	11-2	4.7202 (LW × 1.324)	won by 24 vs Oregon-St
17 (↓4)	Georgia-Tech AP=13	11-3	4.6411 (LW × 0.936)	lost by 10 vs Iowa
18 (↓1)	LSU AP=17	9-4	4.5010 (LW × 0.992)	lost by 2 vs Penn-St
19 (↓4)	Cincinnati AP=8	12-1	4.4646 (LW × 0.941)	lost by 27 vs Florida
20 (↑4)	Pittsburgh AP=15	10-3	4.4552 (LW × 1.065)	won by 2 at North-Carolina
21 (↓3)	Miami-FL AP=19	9-4	4.3745 (LW × 0.965)	lost by 6 at Wisconsin
22 (↑9)	Georgia AP=rv(7)	8-5	4.3531 (LW × 1.141)	won by 24 vs Texas-A&M
23 (↓4)	Stanford AP=rv(67)	8-5	4.1467 (LW × 0.930)	lost by 4 vs Oklahoma
24 (↓1)	Auburn AP=rv(8)	8-5	4.1196 (LW × 0.984)	won by 3 vs Northwestern
25 (↑5)	Wisconsin AP=16	10-3	4.0787 (LW × 1.069)	won by 6 vs Miami-FL
26 (↑3)	Clemson AP=24	9-5	4.0627 (LW × 1.026)	won by 8 vs Kentucky
27 (↓2)	West-Virginia AP=25	9-3	3.9846 (LW × 0.961)	lost by 12 at Florida-St
28 (↓8)	Oklahoma-St AP=rv(40)	9-4	3.9287 (LW × 0.884)	lost by 14 at Mississippi
29 (↑16)	Florida-St AP=rv(6)	7-6	3.9260 (LW × 1.249)	won by 12 vs West-Virginia
30 (↓2)	North-Carolina	8-5	3.9133 (LW × 0.973)	lost by 2 vs Pittsburgh
Other notable teams:
33 (↑1)	USC AP=22	9-4	3.8352 (LW × 1.031)	won by 11 vs Boston-Coll
34 (↑14)	Rutgers AP=rv(37)	9-4	3.7716 (LW × 1.239)	won by 21 vs UCF
35 (↑24)	Air-Force AP=rv(3)	8-5	3.7666 (LW × 1.384)	won by 27 vs Houston
36 (↑6)	Connecticut AP=rv(5)	8-5	3.7633 (LW × 1.137)	won by 13 vs South-Carolina
37 (↓15)	Oregon-St AP=rv(89)	8-5	3.6879 (LW × 0.871)	lost by 24 at BYU
38 (↑12)	Utah AP=18	10-3	3.6788 (LW × 1.227)	won by 10 at California
39 (↑24)	Navy AP=rv(85)	10-4	3.6205 (LW × 1.392)	won by 22 at Missouri
41 (↓3)	Cent-Michigan AP=23	11-2	3.4578 (LW × 0.985)	won by 3 at Troy
43 (↓8)	Arizona AP=rv(5)	8-5	3.3083 (LW × 0.897)	lost by 33 at Nebraska
54 (↑12)	Middle-Tenn-St AP=rv(4)	10-3	2.9123 (LW × 1.135)	won by 10 vs Southern-Miss

Pick Standings

Bowl games were picked in this post. Unlike last year, there were only a handful of split picks. But like last year, APR did the worst:

Line:	18-16	(52.9%)
SRS:	17-17	(50.0%)
APR:	16-18	(47.1%)
Unanimous:	13-14	(48.1%)

Comments:

• Once again, a pretty unremarkable record for bowl game picks. At least APR did better than 36% this year.

• One thing that has occurred to me lately is that a neutral-field game is essentially a road game for both teams. And one thing I've really noticed this year is that there are some otherwise good teams that just tank on the road. Something else to look at in the off-season.

• Colt McCoy going out early in the BCS Championship Game has to be a little bit of a bummer for Alabama. Beating Texas when they are playing their backup quarterback just isn't the same. At least they didn't lose to Texas playing their backup quarterback.

• Lowest ranked teams to win a game: Idaho (#91) in the Humanitarian Bowl, and Wyoming (#86) in New Mexico Bowl.

• Biggest Bowl upsets (according to APR): Wyoming defeating Fresno St (New Mexico Bowl) and SMU defeating Nevada (Hawaii Bowl).

• Villanova (14-1 and the FCS champion) received 2 votes in the AP poll, but all FCS teams are removed from APR's rankings as a matter of course, and so are not listed here.