Sunday, July 18, 2010

NFL: Pythagorean Projection 2009->2010

Preseason football is just a few weeks away now, so it's time to start getting ramped up for the 2010 season. With that in mind, here are the Pythagorean Projections for the 2010 season.

FYI: Details of how Pythagorean Projection works, 2008->2009 Projections, 2008->2009 Projection vs Reality

Rams 1.6 New QB
Raiders 2.8 New QB
Lions 2.9
Buccaneers 3.8
Browns 4.3 New QB
Chiefs 4.7
Seahawks 5.0 New HC
Jaguars 5.5
Bills 5.8 New QB?
Redskins 5.8 New QB, HC
Bears 6.7 New OC
Titans 6.8
Dolphins 7.2 New QB?
Giants 7.4
Broncos 8.1 QB Issues
Panthers 8.2 New QB
Bengals 8.4
Falcons 9.0
Steelers 9.2 QB Issues
Cardinals 9.3 New QB
Texans 9.4
49ers 9.5
Eagles 10.2 New QB
Colts 10.8
Chargers 11.1
Cowboys 11.3
Jets 11.4 Lots of FA acquisitions
Saints 11.5
Ravens 11.5
Patriots 11.5
Vikings 11.6
Packers 11.8


  • The Rams scored the fewest total points (175) in the league last year, and fell 69 points short of the team with 3rd fewest total points (Buccaneers, 244).

    The good news for rookie QB Sam Brafford is all he has to do to beat that is average 11 points per game. The bad news is the Rams also allowed the 2nd most total points (436), surpassed only by the Lions (494).

  • If Ndamukong Suh can be productive for the Lions right away, if Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson can stay healthy the whole season... I think the Lions have a real shot at 6 or more wins this season, even if nothing else improves.

  • The Bills and Dolphins both had QB problems last season. It would be a major improvement for both teams if they could each get through the whole season with just one guy starting at QB.

  • I think the Bears could be in real trouble. They don't have anything like the offensive players Martz had in St. Louis back in the day (Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Tory Holt, Isaac Bruce). And with the Lions making some big off-season improvements, and the Packers and Vikings both coming back for more, the Bears could very easily get caught short in what could be one of the most competitive divisions of the 2010 season.

  • Besides their QB issues, the Steelers really need Troy Polomalu to stay healthy for 16 games.

  • Can the Patriots get to 11 or 12 wins? That seems like a lot for a team that only had 2 road wins in 2009.