Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Week 17 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Packers (+14)
ESPN had the Packers overrated when they were without Aaron Rodgers (and Randall Cobb), so it's fair to say APR has them underrated now that they've returned. Still, I don't think a late win over a not-very-good Bears team is worth a 4 spot bump.
Bears (+10)
Maybe APR has them ranked a bit too low at #25, but #15 is too high for the Bears and their awful defense. Only the Vikings allowed more points this year. and only the Cowboys and Vikings allowed more yards.
Cowboys (+7)
APR and ESPN both drop the Cowboys 2 spots after losing to the Eagles. This is another team with a bad defense, and shouldn't be ranked as high as #17.
On the Bubble
Nobody closer than the Lions, Chiefs, Broncos, and Colts (all +5).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Rams (-11)
APR has the Rams rated way too high at #9.
Buccaneers (-10)
And #17 is too high for the 4-12 Buccaneers.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than the Vikings, Bills, Gians, and Cardinals, all (-5)

Monday, December 30, 2013

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (12-1)

Right:

Panthers @ Falcons
Broncos @ Raiders
49ers @ Cardinals
Eagles @ Cowboys
Browns @ Steelers
Redskins @ Giants
Texans @ Titans
Jaguars @ Colts
Ravens @ Bengals
Buccaneers @ Saints
Bills @ Patriots
Rams @ Seahawks

Wrong:

Jets @ Dolphins
This was another game very much according to the Jets strengths: adequate passing with solid run support, no turnovers, and a dominating defense. Meanwhile, the Dolphins only mounted three extended drives, with two of them ending on turnovers. Just an ugly performance by a team that would've been in the playoffs with one more win.

Split Picks: (APR 1-2, SRS 1-2, Line 3-0)

Packers (SRS, Line) @ Bears (APR)
Aaron Rodgers looked a little rusty to start, throwing interceptions to end the Packers first two drives. But after that, the Packers offense did a lot better, scoring on 6 of their next 8 drives. The Bears' offense mostly kept up, but they needed a little more out of their defense to win this game.
Lions (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
One of the few games this season the Lions didn't turn over the ball. But they're not the same offense without Calvin Johnson. You could also easily make the case that they just gave up on what was left of their season. An ugly end for Jim Schwartz' tenure as head coach.
Chiefs (SRS) @ Chargers (APR, Line)
The Chiefs were resting a bunch of starters in this game, so the real surprise is they came as close to winning as they did. The Chiefs played a very solid game on offense (200 yards passing, 143 yards rushing, and no turnovers). If their defense had done a little better (or the refs had called illegal formation penalty on that late field goal try), the Chargers would have gone home with a loss.

Totals

A nice round of results for everybody, thanks to a near-perfect set of unanimous picks.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 13- 3 145-94-160.6%
SRS 13- 3 145-94-150.6%
Line 15- 1 154-85-164.4%

Sunday, December 29, 2013

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Seahawks1.1152
(LW × 1.0184)
13-3Won by 18
vs Rams
2 (-)49ers1.1061
(LW × 1.0106)
12-4Won by 3
@ Cardinals
3 (-)Panthers1.0551
(LW × 0.9858)
12-4Won by 1
@ Falcons
4 (-)Cardinals1.0540
(LW × 0.9973)
10-6Lost by 3
vs 49ers
5 (↑1)Saints1.0260
(LW × 1.0105)
11-5Won by 25
vs Buccaneers
6 (↑2)Bengals1.0205
(LW × 1.0199)
11-5Won by 17
vs Ravens
7 (↓2)Broncos1.0175
(LW × 0.9998)
13-3Won by 20
@ Raiders
8 (↓1)Patriots1.0074
(LW × 1.0064)
12-4Won by 14
vs Bills
9 (-)Rams0.9597
(LW × 0.9898)
7-9Lost by 18
@ Seahawks
10 (-)Chargers0.9462
(LW × 1.0010)
9-7Won by 3
vs Chiefs
11 (↑1)Steelers0.9362
(LW × 1.0034)
8-8Won by 13
vs Browns
12 (↑1)Eagles0.9353
(LW × 1.0086)
10-6Won by 2
@ Cowboys
13 (↑1)Colts0.9259
(LW × 1.0052)
10-5Won by 20
vs Jaguars
14 (↓3)Dolphins0.9026
(LW × 0.9667)
8-8Lost by 13
vs Jets
15 (↑1)Chiefs0.8825
(LW × 0.9925)
11-5Lost by 3
@ Chargers
16 (↑1)Ravens0.8771
(LW × 0.9926)
8-8Lost by 17
@ Bengals
17 (↓2)Buccaneers0.8763
(LW × 0.9846)
4-12Lost by 25
@ Saints
18 (-)Giants0.8719
(LW × 1.0062)
7-9Won by 14
vs Redskins
19 (↑5)Vikings0.8520
(LW × 1.0194)
5-10-1Won by 1
vs Lions
20 (↓1)Bills0.8504
(LW × 0.9877)
6-10Lost by 14
@ Patriots
21 (↓1)Titans0.8475
(LW × 0.9869)
7-8Won by 6
vs Texans
22 (↑3)Falcons0.8423
(LW × 1.0093)
4-12Lost by 1
vs Panthers
23 (↑3)Jets0.8346
(LW × 1.0326)
8-8Won by 13
@ Dolphins
24 (↓2)Cowboys0.8301
(LW × 0.9793)
8-8Lost by 2
vs Eagles
25 (↓4)Bears0.8285
(LW × 0.9762)
8-8Lost by 5
vs Packers
26 (↓3)Lions0.8282
(LW × 0.9893)
7-9Lost by 1
@ Vikings
27 (↑1)Packers0.7999
(LW × 1.0152)
8-7-1Won by 5
@ Bears
28 (↓1)Jaguars0.7891
(LW × 0.9893)
4-12Lost by 20
@ Colts
29 (↑1)Browns0.7517
(LW × 1.0061)
4-12Lost by 13
@ Steelers
30 (↑2)Texans0.7408
(LW × 1.0011)
2-14Lost by 6
@ Titans
31 (↓2)Raiders0.7365
(LW × 0.9836)
4-12Lost by 20
vs Broncos
32 (↓1)Redskins0.7305
(LW × 0.9801)
3-13Lost by 14
@ Giants

Comments:

  • For the second season in a row, the Super Bowl champion has been eliminated from the playoffs, which also extends the streak of Super Bowl champions not winning a playoff game the following season to 7 years.

  • The Lions were 6-3 after week 10, and finished on a terrible 1-6 streak that left them out of the playoffs. Echoes of that 2007 season, where the Lions started out 6-2, and finished 1-7 (and were 0-16 the following year).

  • The Chargers manage to clinch the AFC's #6 seed. But they barely beat a Chiefs team playing their backups. It seems like their chances of winning in the playoffs are pretty remote.

  • This also means the Bengals have an excellent chance to win a playoff game for the first time in 23 years, currently the longest active winless streak.

  • The Cardinals are the highest ranked team out of the playoffs, and probably would've been an easy division winner in a lot of other divisions.

  • Packers are the lowest ranked team to make the playoffs (but not ranked as low as the 2010 Seahawks).

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

NFL Week 17 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Broncos @
Raiders
Broncos
ρ=1.3591
Broncos*
δ=19.4
Broncos
-12
Panthers @
Falcons
Panthers
ρ=1.2825
Panthers*
δ=13.1
Panthers
-7
Browns @
Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.2488
Steelers
δ=4.8
Steelers
-7
Redskins @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.1627
Giants
δ=2.7
Giants
-3½
Bills @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1625
Patriots
δ=8.4
Patriots
-9½
Texans @
Titans
Titans
ρ=1.1605
Titans
δ=6.7
Titans
-7
Jets @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1553
Dolphins
δ=7.5
Dolphins
-6½
Jaguars @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1547
Colts
δ=14.6
Colts
-11½
Buccaneers @
Saints
Saints
ρ=1.1408
Saints
δ=9.6
Saints
-12½
Ravens @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1323
Bengals
δ=7.8
Bengals
-6
Rams @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1295
Seahawks
δ=9.9
Seahawks
-10½
Eagles @
Cowboys
Eagles
ρ=1.0940
Eagles*
δ=2.7
Eagles
-6½
Packers @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0771
Packers*
δ=0.5
Packers
-3
Chiefs @
Chargers
Chargers*
ρ=1.0629
Chiefs*
δ=4.2
Chargers
-9½
49ers @
Cardinals
49ers
ρ=1.0355
49ers*
δ=3.8
49ers
-2
Lions @
Vikings
Lions*
ρ=1.0015
Lions*
δ=5.8
Vikings
-3

Comments:

  • As usual, the Line for the Packers awaits an announcement on Aaron Rodgers. I will update when it is made. Update: Rodgers is finally ready to roll.

  • Can the Packers beat the Bears? In my more lucid moments, I'm not sure I want them to. Given the strength of the wildcard contenders, I think there's a high likelihood the NFC North champ will be one-and-done in the playoffs this year. Maybe the Packers (or Bears) only hope is to somehow get matched up with the Saints, whose notorious inability to play well on the road is the chief reason they're (probably) not NFC South champs this year.

  • A surprising amount of agreement for the last week of the regular season, I think. But a lot of teams still have something to play for.

  • I feel like Eagles @ Cowboys is gonna be a lot like last week's Bears @ Eagles game. We're gonna see a lot of LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown, and especially without Romo, this game will likely be over by halftime.

  • The Chiefs are, I think, the only team locked into their seed, and so will be resting at least some of their starters. Interesting that APR picks the Chargers to win, even without having that information.

  • Can the Lions beat the lowly Vikings? The week 1 Vikings @ Lions game was actually within 3 points well into the 4th quarter. And playing at home, closing out the Metrodome, the Vikings are not gonna be a push over.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

NFL Week 16 APR vs. ESPN

And here's this week's version. Now with actual subject line. (What can I say, I went into town today.)

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Packers (+11)
The Packers' defense is somewhere between weak and flat-out awful. And Matt Flynn is prone to interceptions, fumbles, and late game confusion. Like I said in the week 15 writeup, without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers don't belong anywhere near the middle of the power rankings.
Bears (+8)
ESPN somehow holds the Bears steady after their 43-point beat down at the hands of the Eagles. And besides their awful defense, quarterback Jay Cutler has been playing poorly enough to generate calls to bench him in favor of career backup Josh McCown.
Cowboys (+7)
ESPN raises the Cowboys 3 spots for their last-minute 1 point win over the hapless Redskins. The Cowboys are really not a very good team, and if Tony Romo can't finish the season, it's gonna be that much worse for them.
On the Bubble
APR and ESPN both drop the Chiefs (+6) 4 spots on their home loss to the Colts. They really haven't looked very good since that 9-0 start.
APR and ESPN both raise the Colts (+6) 2 spots on their road win over the Chiefs. It's easily their most impressive win since beating the Broncos in week 7.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Buccaneers (-11)
I'm not really sure why APR raised the Bucs 3 spots after their 10-point loss to the Rams. Another double-digit loss next week, and Coach Schiano could be out.
Rams (-10)
The good news for the Rams is they're just one win away from their first 8-win season since 2006. The bad news is, they'll be in Seattle, facing a Seahawks team that needs one more win to clinch the division and the top seed. On the other hand, the Rams have a few impressive upsets on their schedule, and are 4-2 in their last 6 games.
On the bubble:
The Giants (-6) disasterous 0-6 start pretty much wrecked their chances for the playoffs. But they've gone 6-3 since then, and don't really belong in the bottom 10 teams of the power rankings.
Similarly, the Steelers (-6) have gone 7-4 since their 0-4 start, and actually have a sliver of a chance to sneak into the playoffs. But APR probably has them ranked too high at #12.

NFL APR vs. ESPN Week 15

Yeah, this is for last week. Better late than never? I was getting this week's post ready, and noticed I never posted the week 15 version. But I still have the writeup on my hard drive, so here it is.

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 15 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Packers (+11)
Matt Flynn has now played 14 quarters of football for the Packers this season. In 6 of those quarters, he was really awful. In 8 of those quarters, he was okay. And in two of those quarters, he was really good. The end result is that in spite of a 2-4-1 record since Rodgers got hurt, the Packers still have a chance for the playoffs. But until Rodgers comes back, they don't really deserve a spot in the middle of thepower rankings.
On the bubble:
APR drops the Chiefs (+6) 2 spots for taking the trouble to demolish a really bad Raiders team. That drop may also be their earlier wins getting less weight, which means their 3 game losing streak counts for more.
The Colts (+6) haven't beaten a team outside the AFC South since October.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Rams (-9)
Four of the Rams wins this seasons have come against teams that are either in the playoffs, or in contention. But #11 is still too high for an 8-loss team.
On the bubble:
APR drops the Buccaneers (-6) a couple spots after they got pounded by the 49ers. They clearly still have some problems to solve, but Coach Schiano has (probably) saved his job, at least for this year.

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-5)

Right:

Broncos @ Texans
Cowboys @ Redskins
Titans @ Jaguars
Vikings @ Bengals
Buccaneers @ Rams
Saints @ Panthers
Raiders @ Chargers
Falcons @ 49ers

Wrong:

Steelers @ Packers
Bad defense, critical turnovers, and poor execution in a late game, goal-to-go situation. And somehow the Packers still have a chance to win the NFC North.
Cardinals @ Seahawks
I think this is mostly about the Cardinals' defense shutting down the Seahawks' offense. Marshawn Lynch and Russel Wilson combined(!) had 104 yards rushing. Russel Wilson barely broke 100 yards passing on 27 attempts. Carson Palmer did throw 4 interceptions, but thanks to a dominating performance by the Cardinals' defense, the Seahawks weren't able to take advantage.
Colts @ Chiefs
The Chiefs offense is not very good. They've had some bad games before this year, but this is what happens when the defense and special teams can't pick up the slack.
Giants @ Lions
In spite of playing the one team more prone to turning the ball over than them, the Lions end up on the wrong side of the turnover margin once again, including a late pick 6 that tied the game. Beyond that, the Lions' offense was generally pretty bad, mounting just 2 drives longer than 39 yards. You just don't win a lot of games if you can't move the ball down the field.
Dolphins @ Bills
Just a bad game for the Dolphins' offense. They had 2 drives longer than 11 yards in this game. 6 first downs, 2 interceptions, 7 sacks. You just don't win a lot of games, etc., etc.

Split Picks: (APR 3-0, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

APR sweeps the split picks!

Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)
Joe Flacco is hurt, and the result was an amazing display of offensive futility by the defending champions. 4 sacks, 3 interceptions, a lost fumble, and 3 failed fourth down conversions. The Patriots' 41 points scored kind of obscures the fact their offense had a pretty lackluster outing. But with the way the Ravens were struggling, they didn't need to do much.
Browns (SRS) @ Jets (APR, Line)
Geno Smith (20/36 for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns) didn't have the most amazing day, but he didn't turn the ball over and got solid support from the rushing game and defense. Meanwhile, Jason Campbell had a game that reminded everybody why he hasn't been a regular starter since 2010.
Bears (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)
The Bears have a really bad defense. Nick Foles only threw incomplete 4 times. LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown both rushed for more than 100 yards. And meanwhile the Bears' offense just couldn't get anything going against the Eagles middle-of-the-pack defense. A remarkably ugly game for a team that had a chance to clinch their division, playing against a team that really just needs to win next week.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 5 132-91-159.2%
SRS 9- 7 132-91-159.2%
Line 10- 6 139-84-162.3%

Monday, December 23, 2013

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Seahawks1.0951
(LW × 0.9751)
12-3Lost by 7
vs Cardinals
2 (-)49ers1.0944
(LW × 0.9927)
11-4Won by 10
vs Falcons
3 (-)Panthers1.0703
(LW × 0.9993)
11-4Won by 4
vs Saints
4 (↑2)Cardinals1.0569
(LW × 1.0488)
10-5Won by 7
@ Seahawks
5 (↓1)Broncos1.0177
(LW × 0.9934)
12-3Won by 24
@ Texans
6 (↓1)Saints1.0154
(LW × 0.9978)
10-5Lost by 4
@ Panthers
7 (↑1)Patriots1.0010
(LW × 1.0222)
11-4Won by 34
@ Ravens
8 (↓1)Bengals1.0005
(LW × 1.0075)
10-5Won by 28
vs Vikings
9 (↑2)Rams0.9696
(LW × 1.0203)
7-8Won by 10
vs Buccaneers
10 (-)Chargers0.9452
(LW × 0.9906)
8-7Won by 13
vs Raiders
11 (↓2)Dolphins0.9337
(LW × 0.9770)
8-7Lost by 19
@ Bills
12 (↑2)Steelers0.9330
(LW × 1.0101)
7-8Won by 7
@ Packers
13 (↑2)Eagles0.9273
(LW × 1.0159)
9-6Won by 43
vs Bears
14 (↑2)Colts0.9211
(LW × 1.0302)
9-5Won by 16
@ Chiefs
15 (↑3)Buccaneers0.8900
(LW × 1.0013)
4-11Lost by 10
@ Rams
16 (↓4)Chiefs0.8892
(LW × 0.9462)
11-4Lost by 16
vs Colts
17 (↓4)Ravens0.8836
(LW × 0.9559)
8-7Lost by 34
vs Patriots
18 (↑3)Giants0.8666
(LW × 0.9996)
6-9Won by 3
@ Lions
19 (↑5)Bills0.8611
(LW × 1.0379)
6-9Won by 19
vs Dolphins
20 (↑3)Titans0.8587
(LW × 1.0112)
6-8Won by 4
@ Jaguars
21 (↓4)Bears0.8486
(LW × 0.9525)
8-7Lost by 43
@ Eagles
22 (↓2)Cowboys0.8476
(LW × 0.9729)
8-7Won by 1
@ Redskins
23 (↓4)Lions0.8371
(LW × 0.9606)
7-8Lost by 3
vs Giants
24 (↓2)Vikings0.8358
(LW × 0.9747)
4-10-1Lost by 28
@ Bengals
25 (↑1)Falcons0.8345
(LW × 1.0121)
4-11Lost by 10
@ 49ers
26 (↑1)Jets0.8082
(LW × 1.0063)
7-8Won by 11
vs Browns
27 (↑1)Jaguars0.7977
(LW × 1.0061)
4-11Lost by 4
vs Titans
28 (↓3)Packers0.7879
(LW × 0.9555)
7-7-1Lost by 7
vs Steelers
29 (↑2)Raiders0.7488
(LW × 0.9920)
4-11Lost by 13
@ Chargers
30 (↓1)Browns0.7472
(LW × 0.9701)
4-11Lost by 11
@ Jets
31 (↓1)Redskins0.7453
(LW × 0.9778)
3-12Lost by 1
vs Cowboys
32 (-)Texans0.7400
(LW × 0.9921)
2-13Lost by 24
vs Broncos

Comments:

  • Thanks to a big upset win, the Cardinals climb into the top 5. Thanks to the Falcons faceplant on MNF, they will probably be the highest ranked team out of the playoffs next week.

  • Although I see there's a cluster of 7 and 8 win teams starting at #9. Looking at the teams below them... the Eagles should probably be higher. The Colts and Ravens have each had some pretty ugly games lately, and arguably don't belong any higher.

  • The Lions got the help they needed to get back into the playoffs this week: both the Packers and Bears lost. Sadly, the one critical piece of that scenario was a win over the hapless Giants, and they just couldn't get it done.

  • The Lions actually had a 7 point lead with 5:06 left in the game when Stafford threw a pick 6. Whether you blame that on Stafford, his receiver, or the play calling, the inability to convert a late lead into a victory is the sign of a team that doesn't know how to win.

  • If you're thinking that there's not a good team in the NFC North, I'd be hard pressed to find a reason to argue. And even when (or if) the Packers get Aaron Rodgers back, their very unremarkable defense makes it hard to rank them among the best teams in the league this season.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

NFL Week 16 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Broncos @
Texans
Broncos
ρ=1.3735
Broncos*
δ=18.3
Broncos
-10½
Falcons @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.3372
49ers
δ=14.3
49ers
-13
Raiders @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.2641
Chargers
δ=10.0
Chargers
-10
Vikings @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1581
Bengals
δ=9.0
Bengals
-7
Dolphins @
Bills
Dolphins
ρ=1.1519
Dolphins*
δ=5.9
Dolphins
-2½
Cowboys @
Redskins
Cowboys
ρ=1.1430
Cowboys*
δ=9.0
Cowboys
-2½
Steelers @
Packers
Steelers
ρ=1.1202
Packers
δ=0.1
Packers
-2½
Cardinals @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1145
Seahawks
δ=8.1
Seahawks
-10½
Titans @
Jaguars
Titans
ρ=1.0710
Titans*
δ=10.6
Titans
-5½
Buccaneers @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.0692
Rams
δ=4.0
Rams
-5
Patriots @
Ravens
Patriots*
ρ=1.0593
Patriots*
δ=4.2
Ravens
-1
Saints @
Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.0524
Panthers
δ=1.4
Panthers
-3
Colts @
Chiefs
Chiefs*
ρ=1.0512
Chiefs
δ=5.2
Chiefs
-6½
Browns @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.0428
Browns*
δ=2.7
Jets
-2½
Bears @
Eagles
Eagles*
ρ=1.0245
Bears*
δ=0.1
Eagles
-3
Giants @
Lions
Lions*
ρ=1.0052
Lions
δ=6.5
Lions
-8½

Comments:

  • Once again, the Line for the Packer game awaits an announcement of Aaron Rodgers status. Again, I will update when it is made. Update: It's Flynn again. I assume the line favors the Packers because Lacy is really good, and the Steelers' run defense is really not. We'll see.

  • The Broncos are (at most) a couple games away from clinching the #1 seed in the AFC. The good news for them is they've got the Texans this week, and the Raiders next week. If they can't take care of business in those two games, they won't last long in the playoffs no matter what seed they have.

  • The Patriots have a much tougher path to hang onto the other playoff bye week in the AFC. Next week against the Bills shouldn't be a problem, but first they've got to beat the playing-for-their-playoff-lives Ravens. The Patriots have only beat the Bills, Falcons, and Texans on the road so far this year, so I think the line is right to pick the Ravens here.

  • Last year, the Cardinals got absolutely demolished at the Seahawks. It's probably not going to be that bad this year.

  • The good news for the Lions is they're facing the one team in the league that's turned the ball over more than they have, so they have a fighting chance to come out ahead on turnovers.

  • How painful was that Monday night loss for the Lions? They went from being in control of the NFC North to the brink of elimination. And the very least they need to have any hope is to win their last two games. Which is a problem for a team that's 1-4 in their last 5 games.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-6)

Right:

Seahawks @ Giants
Chiefs @ Raiders
49ers @ Buccaneers
Cardinals @ Titans
Falcons @ Redskins
Jets @ Panthers
Texans @ Colts

Wrong:

Chargers @ Broncos
The Chargers did a very good job of controlling the clock and exploiting the Broncos weak defense. But the Broncos offense seemed very flat, as well. Presumably they knew the Chargers were working to keep the ball away from their offense, but they never seemed to get in a "hurry up" mode, taking over 6 minutes of game time to score what turned out to be their final touchdown. The Broncos just didn't seem like an 11 win team in this game.
Packers @ Cowboys
I knew the Cowboys' defense was bad, but giving up 5 second half touchdowns to a team that hadn't scored more than 26 points in a game since Aaron Rodgers got hurt is really taking it to another level. Also, the Cowboys were just gashing the Packers on the run in the first half. And that makes their decision to go pass happy in the second half all the more inexplicable.
Eagles @ Vikings
Did the Eagles' defense stay at home for this game. The Vikings, playing without their best two running backs somehow scored 48 points on the Eagles. There actually wasn't a lot of defense in this game by either team, but the Vikings managed a few more stops than the Eagles, and with their offense working as good as it has all season, that was more than enough.
Saints @ Rams
As I've noted before, the Saints really aren't a very good road team, and after their face plant at the Jets, this loss to the Rams isn't exactly unprecedented. The Saints just really looked bad in this game. They lost 3 turnovers on offense, and while they gained a lot of yards (432) on the Rams, mostly never found the end zone.
Patriots @ Dolphins
A part of this is on the Patriots' defense, who had some ugly sequences, including missed tackles on a critical 4th down conversion. But that defense needs help from the offense (the Patriots are now 1-3 when they don't score at least 23 points), and they didn't get that help in this game.
Bengals @ Steelers
The Bengals were another team that really didn't seem ready for their opponent. A special teams gaffes gave the Steelers a couple short fields for touchdowns, and another outright. Meanwhile, the Bengals mostly couldn't get started on offense until garbage time. And it looked like the Steelers were the ones headed for the playoffs, and the Bengals were the one playing out the season.

Split Picks: (APR 2-1, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)
In spite of some early rust (and frankly, just Cutler being who he is), the Bears managed to torch the Browns' allegedly good defense for 38 points. The Browns offense didn't have enought to keep up.
Ravens (APR) @ Lions(SRS, Line)
The Lions end up on the wrong end of the turnover battle again, and only score 16 points on the Ravens' defense that's given up at least 19 points 9 times this season.
Jaguars (APR) @ Bills (SRS, Line)
The Jagars are 1-9 when they dont score at least 27 points.

Totals

Another bad week for the unanimous picks.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 9- 7 121-86-158.4%
SRS 9- 7 123-84-159.4%
Line 8- 8 129-78-162.3%

Monday, December 16, 2013

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (-)Seahawks1.1231
(LW × 1.0275)
12-2Won by 23
@ Giants
2 (↑2)49ers1.1025
(LW × 1.0247)
10-4Won by 19
@ Buccaneers
3 (-)Panthers1.0710
(LW × 0.9948)
10-4Won by 10
vs Jets
4 (↓2)Broncos1.0244
(LW × 0.9504)
11-3Lost by 7
vs Chargers
5 (-)Saints1.0176
(LW × 0.9750)
10-4Lost by 11
@ Rams
6 (-)Cardinals1.0077
(LW × 0.9965)
9-5Won by 3
@ Titans
7 (-)Bengals0.9931
(LW × 0.9902)
9-5Lost by 10
@ Steelers
8 (-)Patriots0.9792
(LW × 0.9891)
10-4Lost by 4
@ Dolphins
9 (↑3)Dolphins0.9557
(LW × 1.0356)
8-6Won by 4
vs Patriots
10 (↑1)Chargers0.9542
(LW × 1.0314)
7-7Won by 7
@ Broncos
11 (↑2)Rams0.9503
(LW × 1.0394)
6-8Won by 11
vs Saints
12 (↓2)Chiefs0.9398
(LW × 0.9919)
11-3Won by 25
@ Raiders
13 (↑4)Ravens0.9244
(LW × 1.0380)
8-6Won by 2
@ Lions
14 (↑6)Steelers0.9237
(LW × 1.0496)
6-8Won by 10
vs Bengals
15 (↓6)Eagles0.9128
(LW × 0.9501)
8-6Lost by 18
@ Vikings
16 (↓1)Colts0.8940
(LW × 0.9915)
8-5Won by 22
vs Texans
17 (↑4)Bears0.8909
(LW × 1.0204)
8-6Won by 7
@ Browns
18 (↓2)Buccaneers0.8888
(LW × 0.9943)
4-10Lost by 19
vs 49ers
19 (↓1)Lions0.8714
(LW × 0.9796)
7-7Lost by 2
vs Ravens
20 (↓6)Cowboys0.8712
(LW × 0.9570)
7-7Lost by 1
vs Packers
21 (↓2)Giants0.8670
(LW × 0.9832)
5-9Lost by 23
vs Seahawks
22 (↑3)Vikings0.8575
(LW × 1.0566)
4-9-1Won by 18
vs Eagles
23 (↓1)Titans0.8492
(LW × 0.9933)
5-8Lost by 3
vs Cardinals
24 (↑3)Bills0.8297
(LW × 1.0297)
5-9Won by 7
@ Jaguars
25 (↓1)Packers0.8246
(LW × 1.0104)
7-6-1Won by 1
@ Cowboys
26 (↓3)Falcons0.8245
(LW × 1.0015)
4-10Won by 1
vs Redskins
27 (↑1)Jets0.8031
(LW × 1.0168)
6-8Lost by 10
@ Panthers
28 (↓2)Jaguars0.7929
(LW × 0.9819)
4-10Lost by 7
vs Bills
29 (↑1)Browns0.7702
(LW × 0.9834)
4-10Lost by 7
vs Bears
30 (↑1)Redskins0.7622
(LW × 0.9948)
3-11Lost by 1
@ Falcons
31 (↓2)Raiders0.7548
(LW × 0.9624)
4-10Lost by 25
vs Chiefs
32 (-)Texans0.7459
(LW × 0.9752)
2-12Lost by 22
@ Colts

Comments:

  • The Buccaneers sure looked a lot more like their record this week. Although the Bucs got a 4th quarter touchdown to make this a 6-point game, it never really felt close, as the the Bucs never really had an answer for the 49ers rather regular habit of scoring in this game.

  • It's not all rainbows and unicorns for the 49ers, though. They ended up settling for a lot of field goals, and that's something the league's better teams will be able to exploit.

  • The Lions have now lost 4 of their last 5, and as a result have lost control of the NFC North. And while the help they need might come, they also need to win their last two, and the way they've been playing, that's far from a sure thing.

  • The Bengals loss Sunday night cost them a chance to control the #2 seed in the AFC. But the Patriots could very well lose to the Ravens next week (who are favored by the early line), which would give the Bengals a second chance at clinching a bye week.

  • The Packers and Falcons both increase in power on their respective wins, but not enough to stay ahead of the surging Vikings and Bills.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

NFL Week 15 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Jets @
Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.3631
Panthers
δ=18.7
Panthers
-11
Seahawks @
Giants
Seahawks
ρ=1.2397
Seahawks*
δ=18.7
Seahawks
-7
Chiefs @
Raiders
Chiefs
ρ=1.2080
Chiefs*
δ=14.7
Chiefs
-4½
49ers @
Buccaneers
49ers
ρ=1.2036
49ers*
δ=10.3
49ers
-5
Eagles @
Vikings
Eagles
ρ=1.1838
Eagles*
δ=8.3
Eagles
-4½
Cardinals @
Titans
Cardinals
ρ=1.1829
Cardinals*
δ=6.9
Cardinals
-3
Texans @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.1790
Colts
δ=8.2
Colts
-6
Chargers @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.1652
Broncos
δ=11.2
Broncos
-10
Saints @
Rams
Saints
ρ=1.1416
Saints*
δ=8.5
Saints
-5½
Bengals @
Steelers
Bengals
ρ=1.1397
Bengals*
δ=8.7
Bengals
-3
Packers @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1155
Cowboys
δ=2.9
Cowboys
-7
Bears @
Browns
Bears
ρ=1.1149
Bears*
δ=4.9
Browns
-1½
Redskins @
Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0745
Falcons
δ=5.7
Falcons
-6
Patriots @
Dolphins
Patriots
ρ=1.0727
Patriots*
δ=3.4
Patriots
-2
Bills @
Jaguars
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0022
Bills*
δ=7.2
Bills
-2
Ravens @
Lions
Ravens*
ρ=1.0011
Lions
δ=1.4
Lions
-6

Comments:

  • Like last week, there won't be a line for Packers @ Cowboys until they announce Rodger's status. I'll update when they do. Update: Flynn starts again. Lacy is probable.

  • The Packers haven't won at the Cowboys since 1989. You'll note that because of the vagaries of the NFL game scheduling system, there's only been one such game since 1999.

  • I wonder if the 49ers should be on upset alert this week. They haven't done well against their better opponents, and the Bucs have definitely been playing better than their record lately.

  • I assume the Browns are favored over the Bears because they have someone other than Brandon Weeden starting for them at quarterback (well that, and the fact that the Bears have a terrible defense, and the Browns don't).

  • I mentioned this in last week's APR vs. ESPN post, but it bears repeating. The Lions have turned the ball over 15 times in their last four games. If they don't get that turned around, and right now, they might not win another game this season.

  • So, I see the disaster in Washington has reached such proportions, that the Falcons are favored to beat the Redskins this week (although, even ARP and SRS are in agreement). Is there any way Shanahan's still coaching there next year?

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

NFL Week 14 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 14 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bears (+8)
ESPN moves the Bears up a couple spots after their beat-down of the hapless Cowboys defense. Which, to put things in perspective, is probably their best showing since their week 3 victory over the Steelers.
Jets (+7)
ESPN moves the Jets up a couple spots this week. #21 is really too near the middle of the pack for a team with 6 really ugly losses on their record, including 2 in their home stadium.
On the bubble:
The Lions (+6) are 1-3 in their last 4 games, and have turned the ball over 15 times in that strech. That doesn't seem like a #12 team to me.
The Packers (+6) are 1-4-1 in their last 6. Aaron Rodgers might (or might not) be back next week. But for now, APR's rank of #24 seems about right.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Buccaneers (-8)
The Bucs are 4-1 in their last 5, losing only to the surging Panthers on the road. They're out of the playoffs, which is why ESPN doesn't like them, but they're sure not an easy win anymore, either.
Rams (-7)
APR and ESPN both hold the Rams steady on their loss to the Cardinals. APR has them at #13, which is too high for an 8-loss team.
Falcons (-7)
APR moves the Falcons up 1 on their 1-point road loss to the Packers. I'm not really sure why APR has them as high as #23, although they did have a close loss to the Saints in week 12, which may make them seem better than they are.
On the bubble:
APR has the Chargers (-6) at #11, which is too high for a 6-7 team.

2013 Week 14 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-2)

Right:

Chiefs @ Redskins
Falcons @ Packers
Colts @ Bengals
Browns @ Patriots
Bills @ Buccaneers
Vikings @ Ravens
Rams @ Cardinals
Titans @ Broncos

Wrong:

Seahawks @ 49ers
There's a lot of things that matter in a close game like this. One thing that really stands out to me is the Seahawks' rushing yards, specifically the lack thereof. Marshawn Lynch had 72 yards rushing on 20 carries, and maybe even more important, Russel Wilson only had 1 (one!) carry for 2 yards. Wilson's running is such a big threat on the Seahawks offense, it could be a big problem for them if defenses learn how to contain him.
Cowboys @ Bears
The Cowboys did not force the Bears to punt once in this game. The Bears scored on every single drive, except for a final kneel-down at the end of the game. The Cowboys had some other issues too, but if your defense can't get a stop, you're pretty much gonna get buried as soon as you start punting.

Split Picks: (APR 3-3, SRS 2-4, Line 4-2)

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
Both teams allowed a near season high in points, so this was kind of a defense-optional game. So, if the Steelers had played a little better defense, or if Antonio Brown had kept a little bit more to the right, the Steelers would have won this game
Texans (SRS, Line) @ Jaguars (APR)
Along with all their offensive problems, the Texans defense has really collapsed this year. Last year, they were 10-0 (including the playoffs) when they held their opponent to 17 points or less. This year, they've only held their opponent to 17 or less twice (and lost both games). Combine that with an offense that hasn't made it to 21 points in 7 games, and you have the Texans season you see before you today.
Lions (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)
Of course, the snow made a huge difference in this game, causing a lot of trouble for the Lions' turnover-prone offense. I think the snow on the field also slowed down the passing game, which put a major crimp in Detroits' favorite way to move the ball. And without Reggie Bush, they weren't able to make up with their run game, and least not the same way the Eagles did handing off to LeSean McCoy.
Raiders (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)
Maybe I should just not say anything more about the Jets this season. After last week's disasterous outing, Geno Smith had, well, a servicable outing, anyway. And along with lots of help from their defense and special teams, the Jets cruised to a pretty easy win.
Giants (APR) @ Chargers (SRS, Line)
A pretty ugly effort all around by the Giants, this time. Special blame can go to their defense, that allowed the Chargers to sprint out to a 24-0 halftime lead, mostly on sustained drives. The Giants are 0-8 this year when they allow more than 20 points.
Panthers (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)
Cam Newton had an okay completion percentage (22/34), but for less than 5 yards per attempt. Which meant that most of the Panthers' drive stalled short of scoring. Meanwhile the defense allowed the Saints three touchdowns in the first half. With the Panthers' struggling offense, the game was over at that point.

Totals

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 5 112-79-158.6%
SRS 10- 6 114-77-159.6%
Line 12- 4 121-70-163.3%

Monday, December 9, 2013

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Seahawks1.0930
(LW × 1.0020)
11-2Lost by 2
@ 49ers
2 (↑1)Broncos1.0779
(LW × 0.9939)
11-2Won by 23
vs Titans
3 (↓2)Panthers1.0766
(LW × 0.9807)
9-4Lost by 18
@ Saints
4 (-)49ers1.0759
(LW × 1.0155)
9-4Won by 2
vs Seahawks
5 (-)Saints1.0437
(LW × 1.0312)
10-3Won by 18
vs Panthers
6 (↑1)Cardinals1.0113
(LW × 1.0240)
8-5Won by 20
vs Rams
7 (↑1)Bengals1.0029
(LW × 1.0350)
9-4Won by 14
vs Colts
8 (↓2)Patriots0.9900
(LW × 0.9894)
10-3Won by 1
vs Browns
9 (↑2)Eagles0.9607
(LW × 1.0172)
8-5Won by 14
vs Lions
10 (-)Chiefs0.9475
(LW × 0.9993)
10-3Won by 35
@ Redskins
11 (↑5)Chargers0.9251
(LW × 1.0246)
6-7Won by 23
vs Giants
12 (↑5)Dolphins0.9228
(LW × 1.0323)
7-6Won by 6
@ Steelers
13 (-)Rams0.9143
(LW × 0.9845)
5-8Lost by 20
@ Cardinals
14 (↓5)Cowboys0.9104
(LW × 0.9515)
7-6Lost by 17
@ Bears
15 (↓3)Colts0.9017
(LW × 0.9689)
7-5Lost by 14
@ Bengals
16 (↑5)Buccaneers0.8939
(LW × 1.0323)
4-9Won by 21
vs Bills
17 (↑1)Ravens0.8906
(LW × 1.0088)
7-6Won by 3
vs Vikings
18 (↓4)Lions0.8896
(LW × 0.9761)
7-6Lost by 14
@ Eagles
19 (↓4)Giants0.8817
(LW × 0.9749)
5-8Lost by 23
@ Chargers
20 (↓1)Steelers0.8800
(LW × 0.9986)
5-8Lost by 6
vs Dolphins
21 (↑1)Bears0.8731
(LW × 1.0218)
7-6Won by 17
vs Cowboys
22 (↓2)Titans0.8549
(LW × 0.9861)
5-7Lost by 23
@ Broncos
23 (↑1)Falcons0.8233
(LW × 1.0033)
3-10Lost by 1
@ Packers
24 (↓1)Packers0.8161
(LW × 0.9887)
6-6-1Won by 1
vs Falcons
25 (↑1)Vikings0.8116
(LW × 0.9992)
3-9-1Lost by 3
@ Ravens
26 (↑3)Jaguars0.8075
(LW × 1.0288)
4-9Won by 7
vs Texans
27 (↓2)Bills0.8057
(LW × 0.9892)
4-9Lost by 21
@ Buccaneers
28 (↑3)Jets0.7898
(LW × 1.0203)
6-7Won by 10
vs Raiders
29 (↓2)Raiders0.7843
(LW × 0.9699)
4-9Lost by 10
@ Jets
30 (↑2)Browns0.7831
(LW × 1.0185)
4-9Lost by 1
@ Patriots
31 (↓3)Redskins0.7662
(LW × 0.9707)
3-10Lost by 35
vs Chiefs
32 (↓2)Texans0.7648
(LW × 0.9812)
2-11Lost by 7
@ Jaguars

Comments:

  • The Lions are now 1-3 in their last 4, beating only the offensively hapless Packers on Thanksgiving. The Bears (or the Packers, assuming Aaron Rodgers comes back next week) could easily win out, which means that the Lions could have no further margin of error to maintain control of the NFC North.

  • The Vikings have now lost 4 games this season on late 4th quarter scores (Week 1 @ bears, week 3 vs Browns, week 9 @ Cowboys, and week 14 @ Ravens).

  • The Cardinals are still in the playoff hunt but with the Seahawks and 49ers still left to play, it's gonna be tough for them to make it to 10 wins. The week 17 game vs. the 49ers could be for the final NFC wildcard spot.

  • The Colts haven't beat a team outside the AFC South since their week 7 victory over the Broncos. They're gonna have to hope they get paired up with a weak sister wildcard opponent if they don't want another one-and-done playoff season.

  • That's actually not looking very good for the Colts right now. The Bengals currently have the inside track for the #3 seed, and Sunday's results means the Colts are effectively 2 games behind with 3 to play. Which means they are very likely to play the Chiefs (the presumptive #5 seed) on wildcard weekend.

  • Another defensive breakdown on the road for the Cowboys. I suppose the good news is, it probably won't be three seasons in a row to enure another week 17 loss tha denies them a playoff berth.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

NFL Week 14 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Browns @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.3013
Patriots
δ=11.6
Patriots
-11½
Titans @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.2509
Broncos
δ=11.8
Broncos
-11
Chiefs @
Redskins
Chiefs
ρ=1.2012
Chiefs*
δ=13.3
Chiefs
-3½
Cowboys @
Bears
Cowboys
ρ=1.1198
Cowboys*
δ=4.3
Cowboys
-1½
Vikings @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0869
Ravens
δ=5.4
Ravens
-7
Panthers @
Saints
Panthers*
ρ=1.0846
Panthers*
δ=3.9
Saints
-3½
Rams @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.0634
Cardinals
δ=1.9
Cardinals
-6
Bills @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.0630
Buccaneers
δ=1.1
Buccaneers
-2½
Raiders @
Jets
Raiders*
ρ=1.0447
Raiders*
δ=3.5
Jets
-2½
Colts @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0413
Bengals
δ=1.6
Bengals
-5½
Lions @
Eagles
Eagles*
ρ=1.0363
Lions*
δ=0.4
Eagles
-2½
Seahawks @
49ers
Seahawks
ρ=1.0296
Seahawks*
δ=3.8
Seahawks
-2½
Dolphins @
Steelers
Dolphins*
ρ=1.0145
Dolphins*
δ=4.1
Steelers
-3
Texans @
Jaguars
Jaguars*
ρ=1.0070
Texans*
δ=6.5
Texans
-2½
Falcons @
Packers
Packers*
ρ=1.0058
Packers
δ=1.2
Packers
-3
Giants @
Chargers
Giants
ρ=1.0017
Chargers
δ=3.9
Chargers
-3

Comments:

  • There wont' be a line for Falcons @ Packers until they announce whether Aaron Rodgers will start. I'll update later in the week. I guess the good news for the Packers is that the Falcons are 1-5 on the road, so maybe even the Flynn- or Tolzien-lead offense could finally get a win this week. Update: Matt Flynn gets another start.

  • Panthers will probably need to beat the Saints twice to win the NFC South (a split would probably go to the Saints). Coincidentally, the last time the Saints lost at home, it was the Panthers who did it, week 17 last year. I expect will see more effective defenses this time around, by both teams.

  • I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Jets. If Geno Smith doesn't play a lot better this week, the Jets don't have a chance.

  • Should the Seahawks be favored over the 49ers? This is a must win for the 49ers if they want to stay in contention for the NFC West. And beyond that, they only have a slim lead for the #6 seed in the playoffs. They really can't afford many more losses if they want in as a wildcard, either.

  • It seems like a lot of matchups between inconsistent teams this week. I feel like Dolphins @ Steelers, Texans @ Jaguars, Giants @ Chargers could all go either way.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

NFL Week 13 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 13 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Jets (+8)
APR drops the Jets to #31 after their 20-point home loss to the Dolphins. None of those teams in the bottom 10 (of either ranking) are any good, I feel like it's splitting hairs to make a distinction between #31 and #23.
Bears (+7)
APR and ESPN both drop the Bears a spot on their loss to the Vikings. To update last week's post, the Bears have now gone 3-6 since their 3-0 start, and APR's ranking at #22 is seeming less harsh.
On the bubble:
Nobody closer than the Browns (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Giants (-7)
APR likes the Giants because they're 5-1 in their last 6 games. ESPN doesn't like them because their 0-6 start means they're all but eliminated from the playoffs.
Rams (-7)
APR raised the Rams a spot on their 10-point road loss to the 49ers. They did rise in power, thanks to a relatively close road win against a much more powerful opponent. But they also rise up because of the power vaccum left by the fall of the Chargers.
On the bubble
For some reason, ESPN dropped the Cardinals (-6) 4 spots on their 7-point road loss to the Eagles. Yeah, their defense looked bad for more than half of the game, but they did shut down the Eagles for most of the second half. For now, I'm going to stick with my claim that the Cardinals deserve a spot in the top 10.

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-2)

Right:

Patriots @ Texans
Broncos @ Chiefs
Bengals @ Chargers
Giants @ Reskskins
Raiders @ Cowboys
Steelers @ Ravens
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Titans @ Colts
Rams @ 49ers

Wrong:

Jaguars @ Browns
I don't see a lot to say about this game, except the Jaguars are starting to look like an actual football team for the first time all season, and the Browns aren't nearly as good when they have to start Brandon Weeden (2 interceptions and a lost fumble) as their quarterback.
Falcons @ Bills
Another close game between a couple bad teams. One thing that stands out is turnovers. The Falcons are 0-9 when they have a negative turnover margin (take aways - give aways), and 3-0 when they have a 0 or positive turnover margin. The Falcons are still a bad team, but at least when they don't turn the ball over, they've got a chance to beat some of their lesser opponents.

Split Picks: (APR 2-3, SRS 1-4, Line 4-1)

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)
Geno Smith was 4/10 for 29 yards and an interception before he was finally benched. Backup Matt Simms (9/18 for 79 yards and an interception) really wasn't much better. The end result was a long, long day for the Jets' offense.
Packers (SRS) @ Lions (APR, Line)
The Packers' offense had an astonishing 6 drives end in negative yardage. The o-line was a disaster, and Matt Flynn didn't seem to have any pocket awareness at all. A very ugly game for a team that was still talking about going to the Super Bowl last week.
Bears (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)
The Bears certainly had their opportunities to win this game, including being gifted a second chance in overtime, when a Vikings field goal was nullified by a face mask penalty. The real problem for the Bears was an inability to score points on a pretty bad Viking devense. They become the first team (which includes the Tolzien/Flynn-lead Packers) not to score at least 23 points on the Vikings.
Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
There's plenty of blame to go around for the Cardinals. An early fumble by Carson Palmer gave the Eagles a short field for their first touchdown. After that, the defense gave up three sustained drives that the Eagles converted into 17 more points. The Cardinals defense actually did a pretty good job stopping the Eagles for most of the second half, but by then the damage was done, and the Cardinals' offense wasn't able to finish their come back.
Saints (APR) @ Seahawks (SRS, Line)
This game went about as I expected, I think. The Saints (like the Seahawks) are much better at home than on the road, and that was demonstrated amply in this game.

Totals

A good week for everybody, thanks mostly to a very solid week on the unanimous picks.

This
Week
This
Season
%
APR 11- 5- 101-74-157.7%
SRS 10- 6-1 104-71-159.4%
Line 13- 3-1 109-66-162.2%

Monday, December 2, 2013

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

RankTeamPower
Index
W-LThis Week
1 (↑1)Panthers1.0978
(LW × 1.0296)
9-3Won by 19
vs Buccaneers
2 (↑2)Seahawks1.0909
(LW × 1.0405)
11-1Won by 27
vs Saints
3 (↓2)Broncos1.0845
(LW × 1.0116)
10-2Won by 7
@ Chiefs
4 (↑1)49ers1.0595
(LW × 1.0261)
8-4Won by 10
vs Rams
5 (↓2)Saints1.0121
(LW × 0.9650)
9-3Lost by 27
@ Seahawks
6 (-)Patriots1.0005
(LW × 0.9905)
9-3Won by 3
@ Texans
7 (↑1)Cardinals0.9876
(LW × 1.0142)
7-5Lost by 3
@ Eagles
8 (↑1)Bengals0.9690
(LW × 1.0103)
8-4Won by 7
@ Chargers
9 (↑1)Cowboys0.9568
(LW × 1.0022)
7-5Won by 7
vs Raiders
10 (↓3)Chiefs0.9482
(LW × 0.9672)
9-3Lost by 7
vs Broncos
11 (-)Eagles0.9445
(LW × 1.0224)
7-5Won by 3
vs Cardinals
12 (↑1)Colts0.9306
(LW × 1.0222)
7-4Won by 8
vs Titans
13 (↑1)Rams0.9287
(LW × 1.0247)
5-7Lost by 10
@ 49ers
14 (↑1)Lions0.9114
(LW × 1.0083)
7-5Won by 30
vs Packers
15 (↑3)Giants0.9044
(LW × 1.0295)
5-7Won by 7
@ Redskins
16 (↓4)Chargers0.9029
(LW × 0.9832)
5-7Lost by 7
vs Bengals
17 (↑3)Dolphins0.8940
(LW × 1.0239)
6-6Won by 20
@ Jets
18 (↓2)Ravens0.8829
(LW × 0.9907)
6-6Won by 2
vs Steelers
19 (↓2)Steelers0.8812
(LW × 0.9977)
5-7Lost by 2
@ Ravens
20 (↓1)Titans0.8669
(LW × 0.9910)
5-6Lost by 8
@ Colts
21 (↑2)Buccaneers0.8659
(LW × 1.0183)
3-9Lost by 19
@ Panthers
22 (↓1)Bears0.8544
(LW × 0.9797)
6-6Lost by 3
@ Vikings
23 (↓1)Packers0.8254
(LW × 0.9629)
5-6-1Lost by 30
@ Lions
24 (↑2)Falcons0.8207
(LW × 1.0172)
3-9Won by 3
@ Bills
25 (↓1)Bills0.8145
(LW × 0.9627)
4-8Lost by 3
vs Falcons
26 (↑2)Vikings0.8123
(LW × 1.0147)
3-8-1Won by 3
vs Bears
27 (-)Raiders0.8087
(LW × 1.0036)
4-8Lost by 7
@ Cowboys
28 (↑1)Redskins0.7894
(LW × 0.9898)
3-9Lost by 7
vs Giants
29 (↑3)Jaguars0.7849
(LW × 1.0387)
3-9Won by 4
@ Browns
30 (↑1)Texans0.7795
(LW × 1.0166)
2-10Lost by 3
vs Patriots
31 (↓6)Jets0.7741
(LW × 0.9496)
5-7Lost by 20
vs Dolphins
32 (↓2)Browns0.7689
(LW × 0.9656)
4-8Lost by 4
vs Jaguars

Comments:

  • Do the Bengals belong in the top 10? They are 8-4, and have a commanding lead in their division. Maybe I'm biased against them, but I just never get the feeling like they're a team that's gonna be a big threat in the playoffs. And only scoring 17 points on an also-ran team like the Chargers is one of the reasons why.

  • And the Cowboys are in the top 10, too. They have maybe one quality win (Eagles) to their credit, and got absolutely crushed by the Saints last month, and struggled to beat a very bad Vikings squad. Right now, it feels like the Eagles are the best team in the NFC East, with the Cowboys a distant second.

  • I was going to includ the Cardinals in the "teams that don't belong in the top 10" list, but they've got three wins against quality opponents (Lions, Panthers, Colts). And even in losing to the Eagles this week, they still battled back to make it a game.

  • The Lions get a Thanksgiving win over the Packers for the first time in 10 years, and do it in dominating fashion (at least, as far as the final score goes). But those four turnovers were pretty ugly, and playing like that will send them home early when it comes playoff time.