Thursday, December 19, 2013

NFL Week 16 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Broncos @
Texans
Broncos
ρ=1.3735
Broncos*
δ=18.3
Broncos
-10½
Falcons @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.3372
49ers
δ=14.3
49ers
-13
Raiders @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.2641
Chargers
δ=10.0
Chargers
-10
Vikings @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.1581
Bengals
δ=9.0
Bengals
-7
Dolphins @
Bills
Dolphins
ρ=1.1519
Dolphins*
δ=5.9
Dolphins
-2½
Cowboys @
Redskins
Cowboys
ρ=1.1430
Cowboys*
δ=9.0
Cowboys
-2½
Steelers @
Packers
Steelers
ρ=1.1202
Packers
δ=0.1
Packers
-2½
Cardinals @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.1145
Seahawks
δ=8.1
Seahawks
-10½
Titans @
Jaguars
Titans
ρ=1.0710
Titans*
δ=10.6
Titans
-5½
Buccaneers @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.0692
Rams
δ=4.0
Rams
-5
Patriots @
Ravens
Patriots*
ρ=1.0593
Patriots*
δ=4.2
Ravens
-1
Saints @
Panthers
Panthers
ρ=1.0524
Panthers
δ=1.4
Panthers
-3
Colts @
Chiefs
Chiefs*
ρ=1.0512
Chiefs
δ=5.2
Chiefs
-6½
Browns @
Jets
Jets
ρ=1.0428
Browns*
δ=2.7
Jets
-2½
Bears @
Eagles
Eagles*
ρ=1.0245
Bears*
δ=0.1
Eagles
-3
Giants @
Lions
Lions*
ρ=1.0052
Lions
δ=6.5
Lions
-8½

Comments:

  • Once again, the Line for the Packer game awaits an announcement of Aaron Rodgers status. Again, I will update when it is made. Update: It's Flynn again. I assume the line favors the Packers because Lacy is really good, and the Steelers' run defense is really not. We'll see.

  • The Broncos are (at most) a couple games away from clinching the #1 seed in the AFC. The good news for them is they've got the Texans this week, and the Raiders next week. If they can't take care of business in those two games, they won't last long in the playoffs no matter what seed they have.

  • The Patriots have a much tougher path to hang onto the other playoff bye week in the AFC. Next week against the Bills shouldn't be a problem, but first they've got to beat the playing-for-their-playoff-lives Ravens. The Patriots have only beat the Bills, Falcons, and Texans on the road so far this year, so I think the line is right to pick the Ravens here.

  • Last year, the Cardinals got absolutely demolished at the Seahawks. It's probably not going to be that bad this year.

  • The good news for the Lions is they're facing the one team in the league that's turned the ball over more than they have, so they have a fighting chance to come out ahead on turnovers.

  • How painful was that Monday night loss for the Lions? They went from being in control of the NFC North to the brink of elimination. And the very least they need to have any hope is to win their last two games. Which is a problem for a team that's 1-4 in their last 5 games.