Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10
- Week 13: the Cardinals go to Atlanta, perhaps expecting an easy
win over the 4-7 Falcons, only to discover that the Falcons are
still pretty good on offense, and had enough of a defense to keep
the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals in check.
Week 1: the Patriots go to Miami, and get shut out in the
second half, thanks to a Dolphins' defense that (at times) looked
pretty good.
Week 2: thanks in part to a terrible field goal kicker, the
Lions' sputtering offense can only put 7 points on the board, and
their defense, which was mostly pretty good, allowed the Panthers
three long scoring drives.
Week 13: the Giants go to Jacksonville, and let a 21-3 halftime
lead slip away. This looks like more of an upset thanks to the
Giants finishing the season 3-1, and the Jaguars having (yet
another) a really bad season.
Week 8: the Packers travel to New Orleans, but their defense can't
stop the run, and their offense can't keep up with the Saints after
Aaron Rodgers tweaks his hamstring. Probably the best game for the
Saints all season.
APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2014 Season
- Week 10: Steelers 13, Jets 20 (ρ=1.1766)
The
Steelers had a pretty bad defense this year, they were 2-5
(including the Wildcard playoff loss) when they didn't score at
least 27 points. That meant when their offense had a bad game (as it
did in this game, with 4 turnovers, a missed field goal, and a
turnover on downs) even a pretty bad team could steal a win.
- Week 17: Jets 37, Dolphins 24 (ρ=1.1785)
Both of these teams were out of the playoffs and thus playing out
the final game of the season. I suppose the difference was, the Jets
had been out of the playoff race much longer, and so were much more
in the mood to inflict some pain on their divisional rival.
It should also be noted that while the Dolphins' defense at times
looked good in 2014, the Dolphins were also 2-7 when they didn't
score at least 27 points, which (at best) doesn't say much for that
defense's consistency.
- Week 16: Bills 24, Raiders 26 (ρ=1.1796)
The Bills needed this game to stay alive for the playoffs. But their
defense and running game stayed home, and as I remarked in
the week
16 pick results, Kyle Orton wasn't the kind of quarterback that
could carry a team in a situation like that, even against the likes
of the Raiders.
- Week 7: Seahawks 26, Rams 28 (ρ=1.2046)
Another case where the Seahawks offense spent a big chunk of a game
doing a whole lot of not much. They managed to get going late in the
game, but the Rams managed one more late touchdown and (unlike the
Packers) got a key late assist from their special teams to close out
the win.
- Week 16: Eagles 24, Washington 27 (ρ=1.2052)
The
Eagles didn't have a good defense this year, as their record of 1-6
when their offense didn't score at least 30 points
attests. Washington only scored more than 27 points in two other
games (and one of them was in their other game against the Eagles).
- Week 12: Chiefs 20, Raiders 24 (ρ=1.2072)
Looking
back on their season, I wonder if the Chiefs suffered an injury to
some key offensive player(s) sometime around this game. A big part
of the Chiefs problem this season was they mostly lost when they
didn't score at least 21 points. For their last 6 games,
starting with this one, the Chiefs only made it to 21 points in one
game, finishing the season 2-4.
- Week 11: Broncos 7, Rams 22 (ρ=1.2230)
Peyton Manning's injury supposedly happened during the Broncos' week
16 game against the Chargers. But looking back I wonder if there
wasn't an earlier injury. In the first 9 games of the season, Manning
averaged 3.2 touchdowns a game. From this game to the end of
the regular season, Manning averaged 1.4 touchdowns a game, less
than half his earlier average. Certainly the Rams' defense deserves
a lot of credit for their performance in this game, but I really
wonder if Manning was hurt a lot earlier than has been reported.
- Week 4: Buccaneers 27, Steelers 24 (ρ=1.2306)
As mentioned above, the Steelers had a pretty bad defense (here
allowing the Buccaneers their second highest point total of the
season). The Steelers' offense didn't have as bad a game as against
the Jets in week 10, but they were only able to score once in the
second half, which opened the door for the Bucs to chip away at the
lead, and ultimately take the lead with just a few seconds left on
the game clock.
- Week 8: Washington 20, Cowboys 17 (OT) (ρ=1.2349)
Part of this was Tony Romo getting hurt in the 3rd quarter. But even
to that point, the Cowboys offense struggled, scoring 7 points on a
Washington defense that gave up more points than all but 3 other
teams in the league. Brandon Weeden (somewhat miraculously) managed
to put 10 points on the board to force overtime, but it just wasn't
enough.
- Week 1: Titans 26, Chiefs 10 (ρ=1.3249)
The Titans had what was easily their best game of the year, with
Jake Locker throwing a couple touchdowns and no interceptions, and
the Titans posting 162 rushing yards. What makes this the biggest
upset of the year was the fact that the Titans were easily one of
the worst teams in the league in their remaining 15 games, with
their only other win coming against the also-very-bad Jaguars.
As a measure of how big an upset the Titans @ Chiefs game was, it
would qualify for a spot
in APR's
top 25 regular season upsets, coming in between #5 (2004
Patriots @ Dolphins) and #6 (2011 Packers @ Chiefs).
As usual, I reserve the right to remove any game I feel was
affected by teams resting their starters. Thanks to most teams
having something to play for in week 17, no games were disqualified
from this list.
Biggest Upsets According to the Line
Winning teams in bold.
Week | Game | Line
|
---|
Week 9 | Rams 13, 49ers 10 | 49ers -10 |
Week 8 | Washington 20, Cowboys 17 (OT) | Cowboys -9½ |
Week 6 | Cowboys 30, Seahawks 23 | Seahawks -8½ |
Week 2 | Bears 28, 49ers 20 | 49ers -7 |
Week 2 | Saints 24, Browns 26 | Saints -7 |
Week 4 | Buccaneers 27, Steelers 24 | Steelers -7
|
Week 5 | Bills 17, Lions 14 | Lions -7 |