Tuesday, December 23, 2014

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-6)


Patriots @ Jets
Packers @ Buccaneers
Lions @ Bears
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Titans @ Jaguars
Vikings @ Dolphins


Falcons @ Saints
Somehow, the Saints just couldn't move the ball against what has been a pretty bad Falcons defense. The Saints had three drives longer than 31 yards, two of which ended with a lost fumble.
Giants @ Rams
Odell Beckham is an amazing player, and when the Giants' don't turn the ball over, they can still be a dangerous team. This is the first time since the final week of the 2012 season that the Giants' haven't turned the ball over.
Bills @ Raiders
Trap game? Let down? Whatever you call it, a week after holding the Packers to just 13 points, the Bills defense gave up 26 points to the Raiders who have scored more than that just once this season. Meanwhile the Bills could only rush for a season-low 13 yards, and Kyle Orton is just not the kind of quarterback that can win without support from his defense and running game, even against the likes of the Raiders.
Eagles @ Washington
I'm not sure there's anything to say here besides what I noted in the power rankings, that the Eagles have mostly lost when they don't score at least 30 points. Counting this game, Washington has only made it to 27 points four times this season.
Ravens @ Texans
The Texans defense came to play in this game, holding the Ravens to 33 yards rushing, intercepting Joe Flacco 3 times, and holding him under 200 yards passing on 50(!) attempts. When the Texans' defense plays like that, Case Keenum is all they need for a quarterback.
Broncos @ Bengals
Besides Peyton Manning's struggles, the Broncos defense gave up 207 yards rushing (mostly to Jeremy Hill) and 206 kick and punt return yards. Andy Dalton didn't look like much in this game, but with that kind of support, he didn't need to.

Split Picks: (APR 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
Either way this game went, you could blame turnovers and breakdowns on defense. As much as anything, the 49ers' season-long inability to score in the second half opened the door for the Chargers to come back and win this game.
Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)
The Steelers' defense had perhaps their best game of the season, holding the Chiefs to just 12 points. The Chiefs, for their part, persued an odd strategy of settling for field goals in spite of the fact they were playing from behind for most of the game. As I've noted before, the Chiefs don't have a quick strike defense, so especially when they're playing behind, they really need to get touchdowns to have a chance.
Browns (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)
Johnny Manziel looked every bit the green rookie in this game. When Brian Hoyer came in in relief, the Browns were down a touchdown. He was better than Manziel, but not by nearly enough, especially with only 84 rushing yards in support (and 19 of them coming from Hoyer himself).
Colts (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)
If there's anything that went right for the Colts in this game, I didn't see it. Their first have drives result in a turnover on downs, three punts, and a red zone interception. Meanwhile, the Cowboys scored touchdowns on their first four possessions, and the game was pretty much out of reach by halftime.


A real clunker of a week, especially for the algorithms.

APR 7- 9 147-76-165.9%
SRS 7- 9 145-78-165.0%
Line 9- 7 154-68-169.4%