| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts @ Titans | Colts ρ=1.3751 | Colts* δ=16.3 | Colts -7 |
| Cowboys @ Washington | Cowboys ρ=1.2567 | Cowboys* δ=12.5 | Cowboys -6½ |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.2343 | Broncos δ=16.8 | Broncos -16 |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Texans ρ=1.2139 | Texans δ=12.9 | Texans -9½ |
| Rams @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.1936 | Seahawks δ=9.7 | Seahawks -13 |
| Bills @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.1917 | Patriots δ=7.8 | Patriots -3½ |
| Browns @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.1445 | Ravens δ=8.4 | Ravens -8½ |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Cardinals ρ=1.1372 | Cardinals* δ=3.8 | 49ers -6 |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.1361 | Dolphins δ=10.2 | Dolphins -5½ |
| Panthers @ Falcons | Falcons* ρ=1.1021 | Falcons δ=3.1 | Falcons -3½ |
| Bears @ Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.0931 | Vikings δ=5.3 | Vikings -6½ |
| Eagles @ Giants | Eagles ρ=1.0861 | Eagles* δ=5.1 | Giants -3 |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Chiefs ρ=1.0832 | Chiefs δ=2.7 | Chiefs -2½ |
| Saints @ Buccaneers | Saints ρ=1.0780 | Saints* δ=7.2 | Saints -4 |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Steelers* ρ=1.0552 | Steelers δ=0.3 | Steelers -3 |
| Lions @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.0525 | Packers δ=5.7 | Packers -7½ |
Comments:
A surprising amount of agreement for week 17. But most teams have something to play for, only the Patriots and Colts have clinched their respective seeds. Barring some unlikely scenarios, the Cowboys will have the 3 seed in the NFC, and may choose to rest their starters in anticipation of playing on Wild Card weekend.
The Lions' center Dominic Raiola has been suspended for a game, so barring a last-minute stay won't play on Sunday. That's bad news for the Lions, especially if the Packers' pass rush can continue where they left off last week.
The Cardinals will reportedly start Logan Thomas as quarterback which... well, it can't be as bad as Ryan Lindley, right? Thomas didn't look like much in relief of Drew Stanton back in week 5, but the 49ers are not as good as the Broncos, and this time Thomas will have a week of practice time to get ready.
I'm trying to decide if the Line is right to pick the Giants this week. The Eagles really fell apart last week against an opponent they should've beaten with ease, now they're facing another opponent they really should be able to beat. I think it's probably gonna go like last week: whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game.
If the Panthers are going to have a chance this week, their defense is gonna have to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson. The Falcons should win easily if this game is a battle of who can score the most points on the others bad defense.
