Well, it's almost halfway through July, which usually means only a few more weeks until the start of preseason football. It remains to be seen what will happen this year, but I remain optimistic that there will be NFL football played this fall.
With that in mind, here's my annual Pythagorean projection post. [How Pythagorean Projection works] [Other posts on this topic]
Team | Projected Wins | Note |
---|---|---|
Panthers | 2.4 | New HC, QB |
Bills | 4.4 | |
Cardinals | 4.4 | New QB |
Broncos | 5.2 | New HC, QB(?) |
Seahawks | 5.5 | |
Redskins | 5.9 | New QB? |
Vikings | 6.0 | New HC, QB |
Bengals | 6.1 | New QB |
Browns | 6.1 | New HC |
Dolphins | 6.2 | New QB? |
Jaguars | 6.4 | |
Rams | 6.8 | |
49ers | 6.8 | New HC, QB? |
Cowboys | 7.0 | Hew HC, Romo back |
Texans | 7.1 | New DC |
Lions | 7.8 | |
Titans | 8.5 | New HC, QB |
Buccaneers | 8.7 | |
Raiders | 8.9 | New HC (again) |
Colts | 9.1 | |
Chiefs | 9.1 | |
Giants | 9.2 | |
Eagles | 9.4 | New DC |
Bears | 9.5 | |
Jets | 9.8 | |
Saints | 10.1 | |
Ravens | 10.6 | |
Chargers | 10.9 | |
Falcons | 11.2 | |
Steelers | 12.1 | |
Packers | 12.1 | Grant, Finley, Barnett, etc back |
Patriots | 12.3 |
Comments:
As usual, you can expect a fair number of teams to miss their projected win total by a margin of ±3 or more wins (Here's last year's wrap-up post).
I think the truncated offseason is going to hurt the teams with new head coaches the most; even under the best-case scenario they're not going to have much time to get their teams up to speed on their new system and playbooks.
Similarly, teams that need to fill key spots from free agency (like the Cardinal's QB situation) are going to have a very short window to get their guy and get him up to speed with the rest of the team.
No team in the NFC West is projected to make it to 8 wins. But given the fact that the 49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks are all looking for a quarterback, it seems like the Rams have the best chance to win that division.
I wonder if the Rams have thought about going after Plaxico Burress? It would really help Sam Bradford to have a reliable receiver to throw to (of course, it would also require Burress be willing to sign with the Rams, and to still have solid skills as a wide receiver after two years in lockup).