Tuesday, July 12, 2011

NFL: Pythagorean Projection 2010 -> 2011

Well, it's almost halfway through July, which usually means only a few more weeks until the start of preseason football. It remains to be seen what will happen this year, but I remain optimistic that there will be NFL football played this fall.

With that in mind, here's my annual Pythagorean projection post. [How Pythagorean Projection works] [Other posts on this topic]

TeamProjected WinsNote
Panthers 2.4New HC, QB
Bills 4.4
Cardinals 4.4New QB
Broncos 5.2New HC, QB(?)
Seahawks 5.5
Redskins 5.9New QB?
Vikings 6.0New HC, QB
Bengals 6.1New QB
Browns 6.1New HC
Dolphins 6.2New QB?
Jaguars 6.4
Rams 6.8
49ers 6.8New HC, QB?
Cowboys 7.0Hew HC, Romo back
Texans 7.1New DC
Lions 7.8
Titans 8.5New HC, QB
Raiders 8.9New HC (again)
Colts 9.1
Chiefs 9.1
Giants 9.2
Eagles 9.4New DC
Bears 9.5
Jets 9.8
Saints 10.1
Ravens 10.6
Chargers 10.9
Falcons 11.2
Steelers 12.1
Packers 12.1Grant, Finley, Barnett, etc back
Patriots 12.3


  • As usual, you can expect a fair number of teams to miss their projected win total by a margin of ±3 or more wins (Here's last year's wrap-up post).

  • I think the truncated offseason is going to hurt the teams with new head coaches the most; even under the best-case scenario they're not going to have much time to get their teams up to speed on their new system and playbooks.

  • Similarly, teams that need to fill key spots from free agency (like the Cardinal's QB situation) are going to have a very short window to get their guy and get him up to speed with the rest of the team.

  • No team in the NFC West is projected to make it to 8 wins. But given the fact that the 49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks are all looking for a quarterback, it seems like the Rams have the best chance to win that division.

  • I wonder if the Rams have thought about going after Plaxico Burress? It would really help Sam Bradford to have a reliable receiver to throw to (of course, it would also require Burress be willing to sign with the Rams, and to still have solid skills as a wide receiver after two years in lockup).