This is the follow-up to last summer's Pythagorean Projection 2009>2010 post.
| Team | Acutal | Proj. | Diff | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redskins | 6 | 5.8 | 0.2 | New HC, QB |
| Dolphins | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | |
| Eagles | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | New QB |
| Jets | 11 | 11.4 | -0.4 | |
| Ravens | 12 | 11.6 | 0.4 | |
| Saints | 11 | 11.6 | -0.6 | |
| Browns | 5 | 4.3 | 0.7 | QB issues |
| Titans | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | QB issues, Britt injured |
| Colts | 10 | 10.8 | -0.8 | Injuries |
| Bills | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | |
| Packers | 10 | 11.8 | -1.8 | Injuries |
| Seahawks | 7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | Weak division |
| Chargers | 9 | 11.1 | -2.1 | Special teams, Gates injured |
| Patriots | 14 | 11.6 | 2.4 | |
| Jaguars | 8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | |
| Giants | 10 | 7.4 | 2.6 | Eli Manning healthy |
| Steelers | 12 | 9.2 | 2.8 | Troy Polamalu healthy |
| Lions | 6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | Ndamukong Suh |
| Texans | 6 | 9.4 | -3.4 | Bad defense |
| 49ers | 6 | 9.5 | -3.5 | Bad offense |
| Falcons | 13 | 9.0 | 4.0 | Michael Turner healthy |
| Broncos | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 | Injuries |
| Cardinals | 5 | 9.3 | -4.3 | No more Kurt Warner |
| Bears | 11 | 6.7 | 4.3 | Cutler doing much better |
| Bengals | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 | Too much WR drama? |
| Raiders | 8 | 2.8 | 5.2 | No more JaMarcus Russell |
| Cowboys | 6 | 11.3 | -5.3 | Romo hurt, bad defense |
| Chiefs | 10 | 4.7 | 5.3 | |
| Rams | 7 | 1.6 | 5.4 | Weak division, new QB |
| Vikings | 6 | 11.6 | -5.6 | QB, HC issues |
| Panthers | 2 | 8.2 | -6.2 | QB issues |
| Buccaneers | 10 | 3.8 | 6.2 |
Comments:
The "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.
Teams are sorted by the magnatude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.
Unlike last year, but like 2008, there are a lot of teams past the ±4 game difference level, which is over the average level for the 1994-2008 seasons.
In spite of all the quarterback drama surrounding the Redskins, Eagles, Browns, and Titans, they all finished remarkably close to their projected win totals.
And in spite of all the issues with turnovers and lost games with the Giants, they actually did significantly better than their projected win total. You may remember last year Eli Manning had a foot injury; I suspect that was a big reason the Giants struggled last year.
The good news for the Bears is Jay Cutler 23 touchdowns and 16 interceptions this year (compared with 27 touchdowns and 26 interceptions last year). The bad news is that hew was sacked 52 times (35 times last year), so the Bears' window of opportunity before Cutler is too hurt to play a full season is likely to be pretty short.
The Chiefs and Buccaneers both benefited from relatively weak schedules (although the Buccaneers played in a much tougher division). Both are in the second year of tenure for their respective head coaches and quarterbacks.
Matt Ryan (and head coach Mike Smith) get a lot of credit for the Falcons resurgence for the last three seasons. But running back Michael Turner (who was also signed three seasons ago) has also been a big factor, especially when he's healty.
