Wednesday, January 5, 2011

NFL: Wildcard Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Saints @
Seahawks
Saints
ρ=1.3227
Saints*
δ=11.7
Saints
-10½
Ravens @
Chiefs
Ravens
ρ=1.2191
Ravens*
δ=7.1
Ravens
-3
Packers @
Eagles
Packers
ρ=1.1423
Packers*
δ=6.7
Eagles
-2½
Jets @
Colts
Jets
ρ=1.0898
Jets*
δ=3.6
Colts
-2½

Comments:

  • Seahawks may be the biggest home underdog in playoff history. The Saints were 5½ point home underdogs in this game back in 2000, but that's the biggest home underdog I found in my quick scan of the (somewhat limited) data I have on hand.

  • The Chiefs went 7-1 at home this season, but against some pretty weak opponents. The Chargers (9-7) and Jaguars (8-8) were the only teams they beat that didn't finish with losing records.

  • The Chiefs's schedule consisted of teams from three of the weakest divisions in the NFL this year (AFC West, AFC South, and NFC West) along with two of the weaker teams from the other AFC Divisions (Browns from the AFC North and Bills from the AFC East).

  • The Packers are 0-2 against the Eagles in the Playoffs. Once in the 2003 season (the "4th and 26" game) and once in 1960. Both games were played at Philadelphia.

  • The Eagles will have to hope that the Packers' offensive struggles continue. They gave up 377 points in the regular season, more than any other playoff team except the Colts and Seahawks.

  • There's been some rumors that Michael Vick could be benched this week. But given the way Kevin Kolb played in week 17, I think as long as the game is in reach and Vick is physically able to run plays, he has to be in at quarterback.

  • Jets @ Colts is an interesting rematch of last year's game. I think the Colts can use mostly the same strategy—stack up against the run, and force Mark Sanchez to throw the ball. The big difference this time is, if the Colts fall behind again, I don't think they have nearly as much ability to come back as they did last year.